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Alex MacLeod

EU In or Out

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5 minutes ago, IBM said:

You are right but the Prime Minister is just about to file for divorce  :sad:

It's the First Minister who looks as though she is filing for divorce.  The Prime Minister is simply moving away from neighbours who have, perhaps, become a bit too clingy and demanding.

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On 3/12/2017 at 1:09 PM, Laurence said:

Quite simply Independence is just a romantic notion

There are people still fighting medieval wars in their heads and in their hearts.

Scotland cannot afford financially to be an independent country in or out of Europe

The NHS in Scotland is costing about 10 billion pounds a year , just about the same as the oil wealth when the price was high

Now the north sea oil and gas industry is being funded from the UK treasury , it is in a negative financial state and is predicted to stay that way until 2022,  (not accounting for the costs of decommissioning )

If the oil magnates in the  middle  east , can put  the price up or down ( by raising or reducing output at will) ,  then the fear of a second collapse is always possible.

Scotland's tax payers  I guess around 2,00,000 of them can't be expected to foot the bill of running a country.

The balance of payments deficit with England not to mention the E U is enormous  , over one hundred trucks an hour cross the border at Gretna bringing supplies from England and elsewhere into Scotland, I know because I have counted them .

The main trucks going the other way are carrying timber and livestock.

Yo only have to go into the stores in Inverness to see the sales floors stacked with imported goods, all would have to be paid for with the  currency adopted by the new country. If it be the Euro a second bankrupted Greece will be on the horizon.

Romance is one thing , reality is another, as a Scottish tax pay payer I am not happy to foot the bill of separation. 

Laurence. A bit like CB, I’ve avoided this one because it becomes wearisome to witness the amount of bunkum churned up and presented as fact by both sides. Mostly, it’s just that – bunkum, but occasionally there comes along one dripping in arrogance, half truth, misplaced observation and plain falsehood. It’s usually unionist and your post fits the bill Before anyone gets apoplectic I’ll explain why.

That Scotland cannot afford to be independent is simply untrue. Economically, brexit – driven and idealogically born in England - changes everything. The economic cost to the UK of leaving the EU could be as high as a reduction of 10 per cent in average incomes by 2030. If Scotland, by becoming independent, can avoid that fate then there is a clear long term economic gain. Also, if it can remain in the single market, it becomes a gateway to inward investment and immigration that the UK used to be. David Davis for RUK, on the other hand hasn’t even counted the cost (see his answers to Hillary Benn in committee this week) A hard brexit will mean potentially crippling levels of tariff imposed on Scottish goods. The question actually is that can Scotland afford NOT to be independent.

NHS Scotland has an annual budget of £12.2 billion per year and as you know is paid for through general taxation (including that levied on it’s 160,00 or so employees) As you know, general taxation is not tied to oil and gas revenue so I can’t really see where the direct correlation arises. Anayway, the oil and gas industry is not funded by UK treasury. Income from it has dropped to £60 million per year from £8.1 billion per year – bad enough in it’s self – but your assertion isn’t true. It’s possible to improve overall economics by growing revenue (see above) and redefining spending priorities such as not continuing to fund part of a £205 billion spend on nuclear submarines. There’s your NHS.

OPEC has always controlled oil prices and this will not affect Scotland more than it will any other country. The current crisis has been precipitated by OPEC driving down prices to make (mainly) US fracking unsustainable. Given that Scotlands policy is to be 50% reliant on renewables by 2030 (currently, scottish renewable generation makes up approximately 26.4% of total UK output) If oil prices rise again by 2022 (your figure, not mine) the net revenue rises against a lower cost base. All to the good, improves overall economics. I needn’t point out that none of this is UK Gvernment policy.

There are 2.52 million income taxpayers in Scotland (8.5% of UK total) generating £11.4 billion per annum. They can (and do) support the country. Scottish productivity is 4 times that of the UK average. The balance of payments (structural deficit) is challenging but addressing it “as is” implies no change in funding, policy or investment in the case of independence. You can bet your bottom dollar that change would in fact be rapid, progressive and egalitarian in focus.

Your next two points regarding trucks at gretna and their contents are demostrably nonsense but they illustrate a point. It’s where the drippy arrogance comes in. Discount whisky, salmon, beef and lamb, chemicals, petroleum products, electronics, renewables and textiles which accounted for £4.3 billion in revenue in 2013. Discount that almost two-thirds of Scotland's total exports fall into five categories: business services, instrument engineering, chemicals, food and beverages, and mechanical engineering. There is expertise in this country. Other Scottish exports include textiles and equipment and technology relating to renewable energies. Discount that top importers of Scottish products include Germany, France, the Netherlands and the United States Timber and Livestock ? Wheesht..

Whilst we are at it, the Greece argument is utter tosh and originally produced as a headline in the Times, nothing more. It was based on data and methodology which was flawed to say the least (it quotes, for instance, the Scottish “addiction” to tax and spend) and has been widely discredited. Greece was an economic basket case and bears no resemblance to the Scottish scenario.

There you have it friend. Not a single point you have made stands scrutiny. I appreciate and welcome your right to input and put forward arguments but at least “do the math” before committing – that way you might realise that you will have no bill to pay.

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4 minutes ago, davie said:

Laurence. A bit like CB, I’ve avoided this one because it becomes wearisome to witness the amount of bunkum churned up and presented as fact by both sides. Mostly, it’s just that – bunkum, but occasionally there comes along one dripping in arrogance, half truth, misplaced observation and plain falsehood. It’s usually unionist and your post fits the bill Before anyone gets apoplectic I’ll explain why.

That Scotland cannot afford to be independent is simply untrue. Economically, brexit – driven and idealogically born in England - changes everything. The economic cost to the UK of leaving the EU could be as high as a reduction of 10 per cent in average incomes by 2030. If Scotland, by becoming independent, can avoid that fate then there is a clear long term economic gain. Also, if it can remain in the single market, it becomes a gateway to inward investment and immigration that the UK used to be. David Davis for RUK, on the other hand hasn’t even counted the cost (see his answers to Hillary Benn in committee this week) A hard brexit will mean potentially crippling levels of tariff imposed on Scottish goods. The question actually is that can Scotland afford NOT to be independent.

NHS Scotland has an annual budget of £12.2 billion per year and as you know is paid for through general taxation (including that levied on it’s 160,00 or so employees) As you know, general taxation is not tied to oil and gas revenue so I can’t really see where the direct correlation arises. Anayway, the oil and gas industry is not funded by UK treasury. Income from it has dropped to £60 million per year from £8.1 billion per year – bad enough in it’s self – but your assertion isn’t true. It’s possible to improve overall economics by growing revenue (see above) and redefining spending priorities such as not continuing to fund part of a £205 billion spend on nuclear submarines. There’s your NHS.

OPEC has always controlled oil prices and this will not affect Scotland more than it will any other country. The current crisis has been precipitated by OPEC driving down prices to make (mainly) US fracking unsustainable. Given that Scotlands policy is to be 50% reliant on renewables by 2030 (currently, scottish renewable generation makes up approximately 26.4% of total UK output) If oil prices rise again by 2022 (your figure, not mine) the net revenue rises against a lower cost base. All to the good, improves overall economics. I needn’t point out that none of this is UK Gvernment policy.

There are 2.52 million income taxpayers in Scotland (8.5% of UK total) generating £11.4 billion per annum. They can (and do) support the country. Scottish productivity is 4 times that of the UK average. The balance of payments (structural deficit) is challenging but addressing it “as is” implies no change in funding, policy or investment in the case of independence. You can bet your bottom dollar that change would in fact be rapid, progressive and egalitarian in focus.

Your next two points regarding trucks at gretna and their contents are demostrably nonsense but they illustrate a point. It’s where the drippy arrogance comes in. Discount whisky, salmon, beef and lamb, chemicals, petroleum products, electronics, renewables and textiles which accounted for £4.3 billion in revenue in 2013. Discount that almost two-thirds of Scotland's total exports fall into five categories: business services, instrument engineering, chemicals, food and beverages, and mechanical engineering. There is expertise in this country. Other Scottish exports include textiles and equipment and technology relating to renewable energies. Discount that top importers of Scottish products include Germany, France, the Netherlands and the United States Timber and Livestock ? Wheesht..

Whilst we are at it, the Greece argument is utter tosh and originally produced as a headline in the Times, nothing more. It was based on data and methodology which was flawed to say the least (it quotes, for instance, the Scottish “addiction” to tax and spend) and has been widely discredited. Greece was an economic basket case and bears no resemblance to the Scottish scenario.

There you have it friend. Not a single point you have made stands scrutiny. I appreciate and welcome your right to input and put forward arguments but at least “do the math” before committing – that way you might realise that you will have no bill to pay.

Very well said, As a firm and long standing supporter of independence, I nevertheless appreciate that there can be sound and logical arguments in favour of the Union albeit ones that have become less convincing since the decision taken to leave not just the EU but the Single Market and the Customs Union.

The trouble with Laurence is that he is incapable of understanding these arguments, he is certainly incapable of making them and instead is only capable of peddling and recycling Daily Mail headlines. Intelligent Unionists, and I accept there are many of them. acknowledge that there is no reason why Scotland should be unique among resource rich and technically advanced small European nations in being fiscally incapable of managing our own affairs and prospering on our own terms.

Very little that Laurence says ever bears scrutiny but, that said, the site would still be a duller and somewhat less amusing place without his 'input,.

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Kingsmill I respect your point of view, however it is not relevant as you are one of the romantics I was referring too

Believe what you want too, whatever you feel I am sure like the Pied Piper you will get countless followers

I feel following recent events that the First Minister and SNP leader was frit to go to her conference without any stance on this issue

I for one don't want to show my passport at the border, and border controls there will be because of the threat  of migration of foreign nationals entering Scotland and then going to England. We may even get a Trump wall.

This nationalistic fervour to which you espouse can only end in disaster, I am sure you know that  .

The bottom line will always be Scotland cannot afford to go it alone. The worst synedria  Holyrood will be taking orders from Berlin.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Laurence said:

Kingsmill I respect your point of view, however it is not relevant as you are one of the romantics I was referring too

Believe what you want too, whatever you feel I am sure like the Pied Piper you will get countless followers

I feel following recent events that the First Minister and SNP leader was frit to go to her conference without any stance on this issue

I for one don't want to show my passport at the border, and border controls there will be because of the threat  of migration of foreign nationals entering Scotland and then going to England. We may even get a Trump wall.

This nationalistic fervour to which you espouse can only end in disaster, I am sure you know that  .

The bottom line will always be Scotland cannot afford to go it alone. The worst synedria  Holyrood will be taking orders from Berlin.

 

 

That certainly confirms all that davie rather eloquently says.

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