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14 hours ago, DoofersDad said:

If Sturgeon was willing to listen she wouldn't be calling for any conversation. Listening to footage of herself stating that the 2014 referendum was a once in generation thing should end any further thoughts of another one.

But because the SNP are so lacking in integrity, that will not happen. The danger here is that unless those who oppose independence make their voices heard loud and clear, the floating voter will be taken in by the kind of lies and misinformation which made the 2014 referendum relatively close. 

Hopefuly the unionist parties will get their arguments together better than they did 2 years ago. If so, we should be able to put this nonsense to bed once and for all. 

I was quite disappointed when I went down town this morning. I expected to find the High Street full of Nats dishing out free saltires and Hangman's Noose badges and eager to have a "conversation" with me and to "listen". But not a soul.:sad: Then the bawbee dropped. The Nats in question are very probably already heading for the well known Nat-supporting areas of Inverness, Dundee, Glasgow etc so they can have their "conversation" and "listen" there. Why do this in areas where you might get a reasonable cross section of the population when they can have this discussion among their own supporters and get the appropriate feedback? That means that they can give much "better" responses to Party Central that the "pure dead bilin'" factor is alive and well and the majority of "The Scottish People" want a return to Ladbrokes.

Mind you, I'm not sure if that's what Nicola is fully intending. I suspect that she is realistic enough to understand where things now stand and where they are going. The most recent poll shows that, after an amazingly minor and short lived Brexitrage, there's been another step away from any desire to have a second poll and any desire to change what they were firmly told in 2014. The latest poll says only 37% want another shot while 50% don't - that's 57 - 43 against if you take out the undecided. And along similar lines it's now 54.5 - 45.5 in favour of the Union and till rising. Interestingly the Courier poll, albeit with that quite small sample, is still drifting even further away from a rerun for which there is now just over 28% support - and that in Natfortress Inverness.

I suspect that Nicola's announcement yesterday had among its objectives, two quite important ones. To keep the Bravehearters occupied, thinking they were doing something useful for "the cause" chapping at doors and also to get a result which might allow her to avoid going for a second (and terminal) embarrassing defeat. After all, you do have to give the woman some political credit. For instance if you are totally desperate for Brexit to be portrayed as a total shambles, then Mike Russell is exactly the right man to appoint as minister for Brexit:lol: However I have this strange feeling that any "conversation" as unscientific as letting a whole mob of Bravehearters loose on the community is bound to come unstuck because they will simply go and have that "conversation" with their own chums.

DD makes the very valid point about voices opposing this nationalist nonsense sounding out loud and clear. As for my contribution to the process, I've already signed the petition demanding no second vote, I'll be filling in whatever there is on the Nats' website, I'll be seeking out wandering Bravehearters to have "conversations" with any I can persuade to "listen" (and jump up and down bellowing FREEDOM when I don't tell them what they want to hear)... oh and I think I really must email them a link to this thread as well. The "conversation" on here has been absolutely wonderful although I do fear that this may also result in DougieDanger being blackballed by Party Central for exposing Prof HH's fatuous letter to public view without permission from Party Central.

AFTERTHOUGHT - maybe I should give the ICT Social Club a miss tonight and try the Gelluns instead. I mean the Nats are bound to be in there, "conversing" and "listening" as part of Nicola's initiative. The Gelluns is just the kind of place where I am sure they would want to tell us they found a balanced cross section of opinion!

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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I had a good laugh when I opened the Courier this morning. No, not Drew Hendry's or Fergus Ewing's column this time, but the paper's fairly long-running poll on whether Nicola should take a second, post-Brexit visit to the bookies.

For weeks, support for this daft wheeze had rattled around, but generally in a downward drift, within the 28-30% bracket. Then the Nats announce their "conversation" and the number suddenly jumps up to 48%. Now, today, it's at 61%. Clearly a great deal of Cybernattery has been invested in saltire-painted keyboards and lion rampant mice in an instant response to the edict of Party Central.

This, of course, also gives us a pretty clear insight into what this "conversation" really is. Nats going out to collect the opinions mainly of fellow Nats about having another bite at the cherry. Then, on St Andrew's Day (cheesiness of cheesinesses!) and, as  somebody has suggested, at that cradle of the grievance culture which is Glenfinnan, they will announce that "the people of Scotland" overwhwelmingly want yet another divisive referendum.

I'm not actually sure this is what Nicola planned since she very possibly is quite aware that the backside has fallen out of everything so a second bet on the Separation Stakes may not be a great idea. However she has possibly come up with this "conversation" wheeze as a means of keeping the Bravehearters and Facepainters thinking they were doing something for "the cause" and ultimately tumbling to the bleeding obvious in the course of that. However if they are only going to have this "conversation" among their own chums, what do you do when you get a result which is almost as absurd as Buenos Hornell's 1993 Courier survey claiming that, among a local population largely totally uninterested in Thistle and Caley, 83% were rabidly against a merger of the two?

In a situation where the Nats only need to con and antagonise 50% +1 of the electorate into becoming ballotbox fodder for them on just one occasion of their choosing, they simply can't be allowed to keep inventing excuses in the hope of getting lucky once and condemning Scots to confusion and poverty for all time.

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I always thought that a conversation was an exchange of views.  It seems that the SNP's view of this "conversation" is to establish what the priorities of those opposed or undecided about independence are, and then use that information to make some ridiculous promises to bribe the electorate.  A bit like the first referendum but more targeted.

Rather than just make disparaging (albeit justified) comments about this charade, I decided to go to the website (www.survey2016.scot) and engage constructively.  What I found there is, quite frankly, an insult to the electorate.  Given that we are being told this is a genuine attempt to get the views of people, I had hoped that there would be a wealth of information about why the SNP thought independence was a good idea and would be asking people why they were not persuaded by those arguments. But, unsurprisingly, there is absolutely no information at all.  All there is is a one page survey form which, apparently, is the method they are using to establish what we all think.  

And what an appallingly incompetently designed survey it is!  As an example, there are some of the most basic errors of survey design in the demographic section.  Question 9 asks "do you have any children or grandchildren under 18?  It gives 4 options - None under 18; Children under 10; Children 11 to 18; Grandchildren under 18. So, if you have a child who is 10 years old, there is no relevant box!  Also what are you supposed to do if you have an 18 year old?  Whilst 18 year olds are included in one of the age groups, the question is specifically about under 18s.  And what conceivable relevance is it if we have grandchildren under 18?  I am a grandparent but all my children live in England!  My next door neighbours' grandchildren are in Australia!  It is quite appalling that the SNP should allow someone so brainless to design the survey and even more astonishing that nobody in their organisation noticed these errors.  The rest of the design is pretty shoddy too.

The main information gathering section is question 4 which asks "If there was a referendum on Scottish independence, how important would the following issues be to you in deciding how you vote?  It then lists 12 things and we are invited to rank them on a scale of 1 to 10 as to how important they are to us.  These include "Feel Scottish", "Economic stability and affordability" (whatever that means!), "Retaining EU membership" and "protecting human rights".  If they think I, as someone opposed to independence, am going to answer those questions and help them to more accurately target their bribes and lies in any future referendum, they can think again.  The shoddiness of all this makes it clear that this is all an act.  They are not interested in what people think - it is simply a sham exercise to pretend they are listening to the people.

There is one good thing about this survey however.  It is a section at the end which says "If you would like to tell us more about your views on Scotland's future, or you've got an idea you would like to share with us, please email ideas@survey2016.scot".  I will certainly be using that facility to give them a thought or two!  One of the things I will be pointing out is that this exercise has been designed the way it has in response to the SNP's outrage of "Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will".  The reasoning of the outraged SNP is that unless the post EU referendum negotiations manage to retain Scotland's place in the EU we will need to have a 2nd independence referendum in order to respect the will of the majority in Scotland who voted to remain.   However, in a recent opinion poll when given a choice of 2 options, only 37% said they would prefer to live in a Scotland in the EU but not in the UK, whereas 46% would prefer to live in a Scotland in the UK but not in the EU.  In other words, the SNP's response to the situation we currently find ourselves in is to get all indignant and try to force something on us that even less people want.  Sturgeon should listen to what the polls are telling her loud and clear and put an end to this ridiculous and very amateurish charade.

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1 hour ago, Westhill1 said:

Completed the survey yesterday what a joke! Anyway glad to read some sensible discussion once again on this forum! I'm also looking forward to having a meaningful chat on the doorstep with the Bravehearts, hope they listen to me!

Set yourself the 3 minute challenge Westhill... just to make it a little more interesting. The idea is that you try to annoy the hell out of them so much (usually just by talking common sense) that, within 3 minutes, you have them jumping up and down on your doorstep bellowing FREEDOM!

On the other hand, you may not actually get the "pleasure" of a visit from them - especially if you are known to them as a non-supporter of The Cause. That's because, in order to get the outcome they want, they will as far as possible simply (a word I use advisedly) have a discussion among their own chaps and try to pass that off as "the will of the Scottish People". Mind you, if they do hold any of their promised Town Hall Meetings it could be good fun popping along just to annoy the various Cybernats and associated knuckledraggers who are bound to be there in numbers. In fact, once the score reaches 5-1 for common sense, we can then probably sit watching them trash the Town Hall toilets.

PS - just been away and done their "survey". A joke indeed! I just took the p!ss.... but I'm now really worried that I'll be blacklisted and they'll make sure I don't get a visit from any Bravehearters looking for a "conversation".

 

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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I wonder if there is any chance that any SNP supporter is going to participate in this "conversation"?  The SNP is hoping that party members can reach out to the rest of us and personally engage with 2 million voters.  It doesn't look like that target has any hope of being reached if members and supporters of the SNP have so little belief in the political position of their party that they cannot even come up with any valid points to make in the more impersonal environment of a forum.

The SNP has a huge membership such that approximately 1 in 37 adults in Scotland is a member.  I don't know how many of the members of this forum regularly log in but I guess that on any day there might be 3 or 4 SNP members on the site with several more logging on relatively regularly.  Over and above that, there are presumably several others who have supported the nationalist cause in recent years.  Are there none of you out there who are prepared to take up your party's rallying call and engage in the conversation?

Or is it, that unlike your leadership, you have actually been listening to the frequent coherent and objective arguments of those opposed to independence and have come to realise that independence is not such a good idea after all?  In the absence of any engagement in support of this farcical "conversation" idea, I can only assume that if you haven't yet been totally convinced of the bankruptcy of the nationalist case, you at least have serious doubts.  Why else would you not heed Nicola's rallying call?

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35 minutes ago, DoofersDad said:

 The SNP is hoping that party members can reach out to the rest of us and personally engage with 2 million voters.

Mmm... it maybe is, but in practice I suspect what they will do is to have this "conversation" among themselves and hence come up with the answer they want - as I said earlier, rather like Buenos Hornell's 1993 Courier survey.

One of the main factors behind the large increase in SNP membership is that, following the complete implosion of Labour, they have inherited a lot of "Pure Deid Bilin', Pittenweem" types who seem to need some kind of a grievance to keep them going so have converted instead to The Cause. In fact, half of them are probably Westminster MPs by now:lol:. This, of course, is serious grist to the Party Central mill since these are JUST the kind of whingers, moaners and Little Scotlanders they are looking for. In one respect at least. Because the down side is the zeal of the recently converted. This kind of Facepainter is also just the kind that's mindlessly demanding "INDYREF2 NOW". Their problem is that the more astute within the SNP (I'm sure they have at least some!) are realising that the only "material change" that's taken place since September 2014 is that a large number of factors, frequently recorded on here, have actually torn the backside completely out of any feeble case they ever had in the first place.

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I recently wrote to my MP, Iain Blackford about the dreadful Broadband service we get in our part of the Black Isle  On previous occasions when I have had cause to write to SNP MPs, MSPs or councillors I have usually received no reply.  However, on this occasion, not only did I get a reply, I got a quick reply and it was actually helpful!  Could this possibly be the SNP finally starting to focus on the day job?

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3 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

As a Ross MP he presumably would be unlikely to be a visitor here so is probably unaware of your political views - otherwise you'd have had no chance!

In his reply, which Westmimster department did he blame as a matter of interest?

ffs CB, give it a rest.  DD was paying a genuine compliment for good service received, and you cannot resist trying to score a cheap political point from it.  Now I know why I no longer read your longer, tedious, 'Nat bashing' posts.

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:smile: Now, now CMIB! My Natbashing is no more persistent than their own legendary Tory- and Westminster-bashing, or indeed their incessant campaign to con us into a re-run despite what they were firmly told two years ago. As I've said in the past - look at it in terms of these Colditz prisoners disposing of their razor blades in the German pigswill. Every little helps.

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9 hours ago, DoofersDad said:

I recently wrote to my MP, Iain Blackford about the dreadful Broadband service we get in our part of the Black Isle  On previous occasions when I have had cause to write to SNP MPs, MSPs or councillors I have usually received no reply.  However, on this occasion, not only did I get a reply, I got a quick reply and it was actually helpful!  Could this possibly be the SNP finally starting to focus on the day job?

I do hope you are able to get superfast broadband or at least a decent speed soon as it must be very frustrating with a poor service.  I suspect you are a fair distance from the exchange or cabinet for FTTC and it will just not work although I know they are trying all sorts of things to provide this service.  Over the last few years there has been a vast amount of money from the UK & Scottish government money along with BT investing in the fibre network throughout the Highlands and Islands.  I did hear First Ministers questions today and she has promised 100% of Scotland to have a decent broadband service by the end of this term in office.  I have my doubts if this will be achievable but might be wrong!

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Well the Nats did say they'd be looking for "material change" as an excuse to hold a second vote and they've got some more now.

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1367060-poll-ruth-davidson-more-popular-with-scots-than-sturgeon/ 

This shows that Sturgeon's popularity is dropping like a stone and, at +16, she's how only the third most popular party leader in Scotland behind Ruth Davidson, well ahead on +41 and Patrick Harvie for God's sake on +19. This poll also shows that the Brexitrage bounce has been negligible and a small spontaneous June blip has declined to 48% for separation - presumably with some of the Brexitrage factor still to work its way out. Derek MacKay came up with a real belter on this 48% for separation. He said that this was within the error of the poll so the real figure was probably around 50-50. Quite alarming, isn't it, that the SNP finance secretary's numerical skills are so limited that he doesn't understand that errors work in BOTH directions!

So "material change" since September 2014 falls into two categories.

POLITICALLY the SNP has lost its Holyrood majority, its leader's popularity is going rapidly downhill, Maw and Paw Sturgeon coming unstuck at their local Cooncil elections and it emerges that the Brexit  vote has had more or less no effect on opinions on a second referendum which a significant majority don't want. They are also caught between the rock of consistently negative polls and the hard place of the Bravehearters desperate for another bash. 

Then ECONOMICALLY we've had the terminal collapse of oil, back to back £15bn GERS deficits, and any separate, Barnetless Scotland trying to get into the EU to create a hard border with non-EU England which, in contrast with the EU, holds they key to 65% of its trade.

"Material change" indeed!

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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10 hours ago, IBM said:

I do hope you are able to get superfast broadband or at least a decent speed soon as it must be very frustrating with a poor service.  I suspect you are a fair distance from the exchange or cabinet for FTTC and it will just not work although I know they are trying all sorts of things to provide this service.  Over the last few years there has been a vast amount of money from the UK & Scottish government money along with BT investing in the fibre network throughout the Highlands and Islands.  I did hear First Ministers questions today and she has promised 100% of Scotland to have a decent broadband service by the end of this term in office.  I have my doubts if this will be achievable but might be wrong!

Thanks for that.  Iain Blackford's response was along those lines although the specific point of my letter was the role of BT in having control over Openreach and therefore control over the role out of the fibre network to suit their own agenda.  Ofcom is looking into the problem but many people and other ISP's feel Openreach should be completely separate from BT.  We are hit with a bit of a double whammy here because a lack of 3G, let alone 4G phone signal means you can't get on line via a mobile either.  Instead, we have a wireless signal beamed over from above Dingwall and if we are lucky we get 4MB and pay £20 per month.  This is over and above landline rental which costs exactly the same regardless of whether line supports broadband or not.  4MB is OK for most things but we increasingly encounter problems with the speed of pages loading or buffering as content becomes ever more data rich.  It's irritating for us but a real problem for small businesses.  Even the B&B owners find problems because guests expect to be able to get a reliable internet connection but find there isn't one and they can't even access their emails etc via the phone.  The stated intentions of Government is great but I will believe it when I see it.

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It's an interesting poll that Charles posts about.  The figures the poll gives refers to net popularity and disguises the fact that more people think she is doing a good job as party leader than any of the other leaders.  It is also the fact that a lot of people think she is doing a bad job.  I think that her extraordinarily high popularity ratings in the past were boosted by many who were not SNP supporters but who grudgingly admitted that she had done well even if they did not like some of the things she was doing.  It is understandable now that these folk will feel angered by her absurd post Brexit posturing.  Her popularity levels now seem to be more in tune with party preference and I don't see any evidence in this that she is losing support within her own party.  That is not to say that support within her own party remains as strong and unquestioning as it was.

The level of support shown for independence is consistent with other recent polls and seems to confirm no significant post Brexit move to a separatist position.  There are two interesting points hidden in the detail of the poll though.  The first is that the 52 NO to 48 YES figure is based only on those voters who expressed a preference and said they were certain to vote.  The figure for all people interviewed was 51 NO, 41 YES and 7 don't know.  In other words there are a fair few opposed to independence who are basically pissed off with the whole situation and saying that they are not certain to vote.  Also, the number of people who feel there should be a 2nd referendum within the next 2 years is well below the numbers who would vote for independence if there was one.  That suggersts a real lack of confidence in "YES" supporters that they would win.

So whilst the level of support for independence remains high as does support for the SNP (although not tested in this poll) this poll provides signs that there may be a weakening in the strength of that support.  There hasn't been the predicted post Brexit surge in support for independence, voters not included in the poll headline figures because they are not certain to vote are predominantly opposed to independence, Sturgeon's popularity has dipped significantly whilst her unpopularity has risen significantly, and people really don't want a 2nd referendum in the near future.  This all suggests a weakening in the strength of the SNPs support and we may well see that reflected in the headline figures before long.

Much though depends on the Labour party.  The poll also shows that support for independence is strongest amongst the most economically deprived.  These folk have shifted in droves from labour and have supported independence on the basis of "what have we got to lose" and "it can't be any worse".  The ratings of Labour leaders north and south of the border are dire.  Labour recently slumped to just 16% of the popular vote in a poll - well behind the Tories.  If they can get themselves back on track and win back the support of traditional labour voters then the SNP will see a significant drop in support and any prospect of a 2nd referendum in the foreseeable future will disappear.

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8 hours ago, DoofersDad said:

 The poll also shows that support for independence is strongest amongst the most economically deprived.

....a corollary of which is that they also expect the net generators of wealth, who are predominantly against separation and already provide the bulk of public funds, into the bargain to subsidise the substantial economic cost of the nutty idea which they want to impose on the rest of us.

Talk about having your cake and eating it....

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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4 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

....a corollary of which is that they also expect the net generators of wealth, who are predominantly against separation and already provide the bulk of public funds, into the bargain to subsidise the substantial economic cost of the nutty idea which they want to impose on the rest of us.

Talk about having your cake and eating it....

I don't think they know what they are expecting themselves.  The stated reason for not using newly devolved revenue raising powers for modest tax increases for the better off was that the better off would either utilise tax avoidance tactics or would b*gger off down South. If the Government of a newly independent Scotland tried to fund the economic cost by hitting the better off with even bigger tax increases, then presumably they would be even more likely to use tax avoidance tactics or b*gger of South.  What is left is either spreading tax increases across society and/or massively reducing public spending.  Either way, it is the poor who have naively turned to the SNP in the hope of something better who will be hardest hit.  Perhaps, as part of their "conversation" the SNP would be good enough to tell us how they propose to address the massive budget deficit which an independent Scotland would find itself with.  We can then also participate in the conversation and tell them what we think of that.

 

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12 hours ago, DoofersDad said:

 If the Government of a newly independent Scotland tried to fund the economic cost by hitting the better off with even bigger tax increases, then presumably they would be even more likely to use tax avoidance tactics or b*gger of South.  What is left is either spreading tax increases across society and/or massively reducing public spending.  Either way, it is the poor who have naively turned to the SNP in the hope of something better who will be hardest hit.  

All very true, and it also touches on an important aspect of this separation question which has barely been touched - largely because people run far too scared that what they say might allow the unco-PC to take offence and start persecuting them.

Well I'm of a generation where nobody worried too much what Sar'nt Major Shut Up called the Concert Party a bunch of, or the nicknames exchanged by the two protagonists in Love Thy Neighbour whilst enjoying The Black And White Minstrel Show and Alf Garnett.... because we realised that none of this actually did anybody any harm. It's only recently that a newly created bunch of self appointed, simpering, politically correct handwringers have taken over and presume to dictate what we can and can't say or think. 

So, that said, lets return to the separation question. It's quite bizarre that this aspect has been ignored - if the SNP were to break up the UK, the more affluent and talented members of Scottish society would depart in droves into the much larger and more vibrant economy down south, hence tipping the entire Scottish basket case even further towards financial oblivion. This major consideration never seems to have appeared in the economics of separation alongside the standard litany of the £15bn GERS deficit, the collapse of oil, the disappearance of the Barnett Formula etc etc.

Turning now to the demographics of SNP support, yes it's completely obvious where much of that comes from and the evidence lies everywhere from polling to counting the number of Yes stickers adorning certain housing estates. What was mainly responsible for the unfortunate swing towards separation in the summer of 2014 was that many "economically challenged" traditional, but disillusioned, Labour supporters switched to The Dark Side. Oh for goodness sake, sod PC and let's just call them the poor.... people on low wages or benefits. And let's also take a great big reality check and admit largely why the poor are poor. Many of them unfortunately tend not to enjoy the intellectual wherewithal to be anything else.... nor hence either to understand too many political concepts.

So what we have here is a large slice of the population - possibly in the ballpark of one third - who don't have much of a Scooby about what all this political stuff is about but who have been drawn into the separatist fold by disillusionment with Labour combined with cynical Nationalist propaganda and misinformation, which they are not very well equipped to see through. If there ever was to be a vote in favour of separation, these are the nationalist ballot box fodder who would swing the balance.... and also expect the more economically successful NO voters to pick up the tab for their being so easily led.

Except that in that event, many of the latter category would take Dr Johnson's advice as to "the noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees" and head south, leaving the rest to subsidise themselves.

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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On 17/09/2016 at 3:17 PM, Charles Bannerman said:

Not our fault if so many who had so much to say on behalf of the SNP in the run-up to the last referendum now appear to have retreated into silence now that another one has been threatened.they realise they were duped.

Fixed it for you Charles :smile:

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I encountered John Swinney in his local 10k run at the weekend. Credit to him for doing this kind of thing - but did he really have to do it in a "Yes" t-shirt? Cringe!

Tempting as it was, I just couldn't be bothered having a "conversation" with him at the end, nor could anyone else as far as I could see.

Oh, and I beat him, easily.  :smile:

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1 hour ago, Yngwie said:

I encountered John Swinney in his local 10k run at the weekend. Credit to him for doing this kind of thing - but did he really have to do it in a "Yes" t-shirt? Cringe!

Tempting as it was, I just couldn't be bothered having a "conversation" with him at the end, nor could anyone else as far as I could see.

Oh, and I beat him, easily.  :smile:

With a time like he did, I should damned well hope so! :lol: I guessed this would be the Pitlochry 10K so I looked up the results. On the other hand he may just have been going that slow to expose himself... or rather his Yes t-shirt... for as long as possible. One other possibility is that he slowed down to avoid returning a time of 55:45.

Wish I'd known about this because I could easily have got a Union Flag running vest, popped down the road, had the "conversation" very publicly with him during the event - before sprinting away at the end of course

Next year maybe.....

The Yes t-shirt gag reminds me of the profoundly sad, historically illiterate roasters who turn up in full SNP regalia each October at the charity run at Culloden.

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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18 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

With a time like he did, I should damned well hope so! :lol: I guessed this would be the Pitlochry 10K so I looked up the results. On the other hand he may just have been going that slow to expose himself... or rather his Yes t-shirt... for as long as possible.

He actually used to be quicker and fitter but appears to have put on a stone or two since I last saw him a couple of years ago. Here's a poster for your bedroom wall!

14333135_1173686682653639_7921120351480220245_n.jpg

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