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Beware the Ides of March


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Fraid we now have to face facts that we have to go to the end of the season with what we have got - management and playing staff. I am really, really NOT sure if we are good enuff to stay up. But I will be 100% committed to the cause. I hope that the following will be realism and not wholly negative. As I alluded to in a previous thread we simply had to take points from the last three games. We pinched a point on the peat bog called Tynecastle but look at Hearts since. We caught Rangers rite on cue and deserved it. It was always damage limitation against Cellic. It could have been worse but made a dent in the goal difference.

There are not many games in March but Jhesus are they crucial - both in regard to US and the others around but worryingly now above us. Firstly we need Killie to beat Well next Saturday. But our performance and result at Firhill on 11/03/17 may actually "make or break" our season - Away at not a happy hunting ground against one of the "form" teams. If we do not win and other results go against us we are being cast adrift and that is the absolute worst place to be.

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We picked up 14 points out of the first 36 available, and have picked up 8 out of 45 in the last 15 games. There were a handful of decent performances in those 15 games - the two against Rangers, albeit a poor Rangers, spring to mind - but also some of the worst I can remember seeing, especially those in Perth and Hamilton. Regardless of how or where you apportion blame, there is no evidence of real improvement in the team as a whole: Mckay is certainly a cut above what we've had up front for most of the season, but we still lack firepower and we're still making far too many mistakes at the back. Therefore, I can't see how we're going to pick up the number of points that would have seen us safe in previous seasons. Best hope is for Motherwell to sink deeper into turmoil after McGhee's departure rather than getting a bounce, and for Hamilton to have used up all their luck last night, but my feeling is that we'll be in the bottom two. 

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35 minutes ago, alternative maryhill said:

We picked up 14 points out of the first 36 available, and have picked up 8 out of 45 in the last 15 games. There were a handful of decent performances in those 15 games - the two against Rangers, albeit a poor Rangers, spring to mind - but also some of the worst I can remember seeing, especially those in Perth and Hamilton. Regardless of how or where you apportion blame, there is no evidence of real improvement in the team as a whole: Mckay is certainly a cut above what we've had up front for most of the season, but we still lack firepower and we're still making far too many mistakes at the back. Therefore, I can't see how we're going to pick up the number of points that would have seen us safe in previous seasons. Best hope is for Motherwell to sink deeper into turmoil after McGhee's departure rather than getting a bounce, and for Hamilton to have used up all their luck last night, but my feeling is that we'll be in the bottom two. 

As Julius Caesar might also have said on the Ides of March.... I think I get the point!!

Based on other seasons, around 33 points to avoid bottom and 36 to avoid 11th might not seem a bad estimate of what's required this time. To get there would require immediate and sustained improvements of 23% and 57% over what has unfolded in 27 games so far. In the case of avoiding the playoffs, that's 14 points from 33 available... as compared with the "better" early season tally of 14 from 36 which Alternative mentions. HOWEVER what's needed to avoid bottom is actually less formidable than it was before the Hearts game since these three very difficult recent matches actually yielded more points than that particular target required.

In practice this could all turn on the six pointer at Motherwell on April 15th and two more against Hamilton and Motherwell post-split. One, or very possibly two remaining Highland Derbies also loom large.

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Harking back to statistics and points from previous seasons means little, what needs looking at is where we are and what we need to improve on those around us. We may have picked picked up a few points recently but I'm not yet convinced there is enough to keep us up. There are too many players with sporadic performances and some who are so out of form they could probably do with with a fresh new start elsewhere. We need to beat those around us but it's going to rely on fighting spirit spirit and bottle but do enough of the team have that trait. 

 

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15 hours ago, alternative maryhill said:

We picked up 14 points out of the first 36 available, and have picked up 8 out of 45 in the last 15 games. There were a handful of decent performances in those 15 games - the two against Rangers, albeit a poor Rangers, spring to mind - but also some of the worst I can remember seeing, especially those in Perth and Hamilton. Regardless of how or where you apportion blame, there is no evidence of real improvement in the team as a whole: Mckay is certainly a cut above what we've had up front for most of the season, but we still lack firepower and we're still making far too many mistakes at the back. Therefore, I can't see how we're going to pick up the number of points that would have seen us safe in previous seasons. Best hope is for Motherwell to sink deeper into turmoil after McGhee's departure rather than getting a bounce, and for Hamilton to have used up all their luck last night, but my feeling is that we'll be in the bottom two. 

ET TU BRUTE ?

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15 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

As Julius Caesar might also have said on the Ides of March.... I think I get the point!!

Based on other seasons, around 33 points to avoid bottom and 36 to avoid 11th might not seem a bad estimate of what's required this time. To get there would require immediate and sustained improvements of 23% and 57% over what has unfolded in 27 games so far. In the case of avoiding the playoffs, that's 14 points from 33 available... as compared with the "better" early season tally of 14 from 36 which Alternative mentions. HOWEVER what's needed to avoid bottom is actually less formidable than it was before the Hearts game since these three very difficult recent matches actually yielded more points than that particular target required.

In practice this could all turn on the six pointer at Motherwell on April 15th and two more against Hamilton and Motherwell post-split. One, or very possibly two remaining Highland Derbies also loom large.

Says Charlie the Soothsayer Statitician :lol: Lets hope that Partick, County and Killie abide by the estimates :blush:

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One thing we MUST get right is penalties. Billys fabulous finish against the Rangers saved a few blushes. The fact remains that had Billy not found the corner of the goal we would have chucked away two valuable points and be well adrift by now. As we all know, it is not the first time. Billy is not the man;Tansey has shown vulnerability; the wrong guy took the pen in the above instance. Give the ball to Draper every time for me.........In any case lets sort that out. It can't be that hard. This small instance highlights for me that all is not well in the camp. Heads are down. For me, the Celtic game could not have come at a worse time. Just when we had been given a shot in the arm with 4 ( largely unexpected) points, the Celtic bandwagon rolled into town. It was always going to be damage limitation....no injuries,no bookings and keep the score down. AND please not another goal keeping embarrassment.. Well we underachieved in that task and now we must, once again, build ourselves up for a visit to Firhill of all places..........not many of us can remember many occasions when we have left there in a good frame of mind! I am worried but remain convinced that if we can get the best out of this group of players and remain a cohesive and motivated unit, we are good enough to get us out of the mire. Lets play some football; draw on what we know we have achieved in the past and rise to the occasion. As some have been saying........relegation ( which was a bit of fun last time round) is simply not an option. It would be, in my opinion, the top of a very slippery slope. With retirement looming, I am going to be much more available to attend games. We must all make the effort to get along and cheer on our boys...........booing is disgraceful ( exactly what do you expect to achieve by that?) See yous at Partick

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A motherwell win was the worst possible result for us.  A draw would have been decent but unfortunately  fat Boyd got distracted by the burger van when taking his penalty.

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I cant believe that happened. According to the Soothsayer Statistican this should have been a draw or a Kille win. Still if we improve our performance by 57% we should beat Partick and add to your coupons BIG wins for Hearts and Aberdeen and a dour goalless draw at Dungwall. :cry:

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1 hour ago, IMMORTAL HOWDEN ENDER said:

I cant believe that happened. According to the Soothsayer Statistican this should have been a draw or a Kille win. Still if we improve our performance by 57% we should beat Partick and add to your coupons BIG wins for Hearts and Aberdeen and a dour goalless draw at Dungwall. :cry:

You seem not to have taken into account the principle that statistically likely outcomes are less reliable in the short term but become more reliable as the number of results increases.

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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Ouch - that hurt! It seems we've upset the footballing Gods, with a full set of results not going our way this week. So, we can't rely on other results working for us. It's up to us - and us alone - to get out of this, starting on Saturday. Ther's less and less room for error....

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2 minutes ago, PerfICT said:

Ouch - that hurt! It seems we've upset the footballing Gods, with a full set of results not going our way this week. So, we can't rely on other results working for us. It's up to us - and us alone - to get out of this, starting on Saturday. Ther's less and less room for error....

Statistically, in the short term, we may struggle against Partick but even a point, in the long term may statistically be significantly more promising. Statistics also suggest that, next week, all the other results will go our way. :lol:

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You run your own race, so it doesn't matter who's just behind you or just in front during the race, it's the position at the finishing line which is important.

Here's hoping for 3 points against Partick, as the race continues.

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It is a case of taking one game at a time and 100%+ effort. You simply can't look further ahead and think about how many points that we need or what the likely results of other games are. We DEFINITELY can't start thinking about the split or that it will give us a better chance of surviving against the other teams. It really looks like SEVEN teams battling for the last remaining Top Six place or to avoid the two relegation places. EVERY one of the teams has something to play for and will be putting in the same effort as us. I even think that playing St Jones Town or Hearts would be a bonus as their season is basically over - unless it is a 4th place for Europe.

Looking forward to seeing as many of you as possible at Firhill.

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