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ThorburnGolf    45

For me it's no coincidence that our form suddenly improved on arrival of Malpas, he is clearly respected by players and knows the Scottish game and our club especially inside out, for me there is no better option for manager if he wants it.  

If he wants to remain in the background then what about Darren Young, has left Albion Rovers and has done a stellar job getting them promoted to League 1 and keeping them there for 2 seasons. Would be someone Malpas could really assist and kick on with.

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RiG    2,212

We won 3 out of the 5 games we had left when Malpas returned but two of those were against teams that had nothing to play for so I'd be wary about trying to link his return with an apparent upturn in our fortunes.

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ForzaCaley    248

There are two points we must look at here in defining who can manage us.

1) We are a club with limited budget and 2) managerial statistics. 

1) we have a limited budget with limited resources. In my opinion the two best managers we have had that could work within that environment were Steve Paterson and Terry Butcher. Both managers had the eye to catch good, youthful and experienced talent on the cheap! Paterson dipped into the Highland league and lower Scottish leagues, whilst Butcher obviously had connections with the English non league. Therefore our new manager needs to have experience of sourcing players, in the cheap that will be good enough to challenge for the Championship title. 

Also, both Pele and Butcher had years of experience in management before they came to ICT and they also had tactical awareness. Both points which Foran lacked severely in. 

Therefore in my opinion, of all the managers mentioned above, the two men that can tick all those boxes are Paul Hartley and Paul Sheerin. Hartley has won leagues 1 & 2 with Alloa and the championship with Dundee. He has the eye for resourcing young talent from Scotland and England and despite the last few months at Dundee has largely been a successful manager. Sheerin also has years of experience in coaching and management. He was Arbroath manager for two years and won league 2. Also his role with Aberdeen u20s means he knows the development league and could be influential in getting us loan deals of young Scottish talent. 

 

2) managerial statistics

I am a big fan of moneyball and I always like to look at the win ratio of a manager which is being touted for us. Excluding Foran who had a very poor win ratio, no surprise, our last two managers in Hughes and Butcher had a win ratio of 41.3% whilst at ICT

Hughes has a career win ratio of 39.7% and Butcher has a career win ratio of 35.03%

Now I must add that it is very rare at our level to find a manager who has a win ratio of more than 50%. Therefore realistically anything between 35 - 45% is what we are looking for. 

Of the managers mentioned above the most.....

Hartley has a career win ratio of 41.3%. A massive YES from me

Sheerin - 38.97% whilst at Abroath (I can't find his record at Aberdeen u20s) again a Yes from me.

Danny Lennon - 31.37%. It was 27% at St Mirren which is only 3% more than Foran. So it's a resounding NO from me

I cannot find statistics for Paul Telfer. Since being rejected by us, he still has not have been given a management role and therefore it rings warning bells for me. It's a No

Gus MacPherson - 35% puts him within the threshold but I'm not so sure tbh. His St Mirren side were known for Brutish, long ball football. It's a no

Therefore we can see Paul Hartley is the resounding winner in points 1 & 2 and the fact he is available at the moment I hope we atleast try and speak to him. He is my firm favourite and I believe he could be a resounding success for ICT

Also Paul Sheerin I believe has the ability to step into the position although he has only managed at league 1&2 and development league level. Therefore it might be wise to appoint a DoF if he were to be in the frame for the post. 

 

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LairdMattie    15

Not Paul Hartley. I work with a few DFC fans and every single one of them said he was clueless and complained week after week about his selections and lineups. Ring any bells?

I bet he will be hoping for a call from Hearts when Cathro gets booted.

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+finmack    56
6 minutes ago, LairdMattie said:

Not Paul Hartley. I work with a few DFC fans and every single one of them said he was clueless and complained week after week about his selections and lineups. Ring any bells?

I bet he will be hoping for a call from Hearts when Cathro gets booted.

Living in Dundee, I know a heck of a lot of Dundee fans, and halfway through the season they were calling for him to go.  and just towards the end hardly anyone had a good word for him.

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CELTIC1CALEY3    455

Key questions remain about the roles of Scott Kellacher, Ryan Essen, Brian Rice, possibly Duncan Shearer and Charlie before we know what is to happen next. I suspect that is or has happened and the club will slim team/coaching management structure that mabut include Maurice Malpass. Meantime, we need to get Fisher signed regardless.

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ictchris    872

Looking at win percentages across managers careers is not what Moneyball / analytics is about.  Looking at stats like that raw don't tell you a great deal - a manager operating on a low budget with a side punching above their weight in terms of which division they are in will likely have a lower win percentage than someone with loads of money who still performs below expectations.  A good example would be Stevie Aitken at Dumbarton - he's got a win percentage of 25% so he must be a dud right?  Wrong.  He's working with a part-time club in a division that not only has mostly full time teams but teams with some of the highest budgets in Scottish football.  He's done a remarkable job to keep them in that division and to get so many wins.  

Also, that doesn't mean that Stevie Aitken is going to be a great manager if he went to a bigger club.  Look at Ian Murray, his predecessor who had a fantastic record and was hailed as a solid appointment when he went to St Mirren.  He turned into a disaster.  Dick Campbell is one of the most successful lower league managers in decades in this country but I doubt any full-time team would look at him.

Edited by ictchris
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+Fraz    928

Barry Ferguson with Gazza as assistant is the only choice.

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rossfm    1
23 minutes ago, Fraz said:

Barry Ferguson with Gazza as assistant is the only choice.

And John Brown as Director of Football.

 

Like the look of Paul Sheerin has had a good grounding.

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ubern    172

Id rather the club folded than the majority of the names here getting the job.

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RiG    2,212
9 minutes ago, ubern said:

Id rather the club folded than the majority of the names here getting the job.

If Calderwood got anywhere near the front door of the stadium I'd be more than likely not to go to a game. His disgraceful bullying of a young lad at Aberdeen (maybe Killie I can't recall at this time) was utterly shameful.

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+jingsmonty    199
1 hour ago, Fraz said:

Barry Ferguson with Gazza as assistant is the only choice.

Only choice for worst management duo we could possibly pick....

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ictbob    41

Butcher didn't cover himself in glory when he left but nobody can knock his signing.some are still here and maybe a bit wary about staying but under him I believea lot would stay.he seems to have the ability to get young talented players to come north which other managers don't have.Butcher all the way for me.

 

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Yngwie    3,262

It's a welcome sign of progress that, for the first time ever, nobody is seriously suggesting the return of Steve Paterson or John Robertson.

How many more managerial changes will there have to be before we see the end of calls to bring back Butcher or Hughes?!

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ictchris    872
33 minutes ago, RiG said:

If Calderwood got anywhere near the front door of the stadium I'd be more than likely not to go to a game. His disgraceful bullying of a young lad at Aberdeen (maybe Killie I can't recall at this time) was utterly shameful.

It was both - Ryan O'Leary was at Aberdeen when Calderwood shelled him out, he went to Killie and when Calderwood took over there he did the same thing.

Calderwood is an absolute utter c*nt of a man.

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RiG    2,212
15 minutes ago, ictchris said:

It was both - Ryan O'Leary was at Aberdeen when Calderwood shelled him out, he went to Killie and when Calderwood took over there he did the same thing.

Calderwood is an absolute utter c*nt of a man.

Cheers Chris.

I see Barry Wilson getting stuck into ICT and yesterdays statement. Not much I disagree with here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40088740?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_sportsound&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=scotland

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cif73    241

I like the idea of Paul Sheerin for his previous managerial success (albeit lower league), youth coaching experience (currently Aberdeen) and history with ICT set-up ... but would you not expect Scotland's current 2nd club to have a higher achieving Development team than the table below suggests?

http://spfl.co.uk/development-league/

Edited by cif73

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Yngwie    3,262

I was thinking the same, 9th is pretty poor. I know this league is more about development than results, but still, you'd think that with Aberdeen's large pool of talent, some good organisation, tactics, motivation etc from the coach would see them do a lot better than that.

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Renegade    2,301
4 hours ago, ThorburnGolf said:

For me it's no coincidence that our form suddenly improved on arrival of Malpas, he is clearly respected by players and knows the Scottish game and our club especially inside out, for me there is no better option for manager if he wants it.  

There are plenty of better options. Malpas' record as a manager is absolutely abysmal. 

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ForzaCaley    248

A name I have just seen at 12/1 on a betting site, and a name I've not heard mentioned on here yet is Steven Presley. I'd imagine he won't be everyone's cup of tea and he has failed miserably down in England but you could argue that he was a success at Falkirk. 

I understand the point ICTChris was making earlier, regarding analytics etc. However Presley was manager of a club who had just been relegated, lacking in funds, has a similar support to ourselves and he managed a win ratio of 43%.....

Worth a shout? Just a genuine question, wondering what other people's views on Presley are

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9 minutes ago, ForzaCaley said:

A name I have just seen at 12/1 on a betting site, and a name I've not heard mentioned on here yet is Steven Presley. I'd imagine he won't be everyone's cup of tea and he has failed miserably down in England but you could argue that he was a success at Falkirk. 

I understand the point ICTChris was making earlier, regarding analytics etc. However Presley was manager of a club who had just been relegated, lacking in funds, has a similar support to ourselves and he managed a win ratio of 43%.....

Worth a shout? Just a genuine question, wondering what other people's views on Presley are

Suspicious minds :happy:

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+jingsmonty    199
12 minutes ago, ForzaCaley said:

A name I have just seen at 12/1 on a betting site, and a name I've not heard mentioned on here yet is Steven Presley. I'd imagine he won't be everyone's cup of tea and he has failed miserably down in England but you could argue that he was a success at Falkirk. 

I understand the point ICTChris was making earlier, regarding analytics etc. However Presley was manager of a club who had just been relegated, lacking in funds, has a similar support to ourselves and he managed a win ratio of 43%.....

Worth a shout? Just a genuine question, wondering what other people's views on Presley are

I would give him a chance, wouldn't be my 1st choice...but some of our previous managers weren't either...

Might be a good blend of not being too long in the tooth & experience..

Definetly worth an interview if he applies..

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ictchris    872

Ally McCoist has a win percentage of 72% in his managerial career, higher than Pep Guardiola has managed throughout his career.  Win percentages don't tell you much.

Steven Pressley was manager of Falkirk several years ago.  He managed for three seasons in the First Division, during which time he finished third three times, missing out on promotion by 12, 27 and 25 points.  I don't have the full picture but I would severely doubt that teams like Dunfermline, Raith Rovers, Ross County, Dundee, Partick Thistle and Morton were paying significantly higher wages than Falkirk at that time.  Basically he achieved what you'd expect for a club like Falkirk in the First Divsiion but never really managed to mount a significant title challenge.  

His record at Coventry is mixed but that club has really significant issues off the field, with the club going into administration, being docked points in successive seasons and having to play home games in Northampton due to a dispute with teh owners of their stadium.  He did relatively OK for the first few seasons but had a significant drop off towards the end, including getting knocked out of the cup by a non-league side.  Coventry haven't improved a great deal since he left and were relegated to the bottom tier of English football last season, suggesting that maybe Pressley wasn't the problem.  At Fleetwood he stabilised the club after they'd had a shaky start and lead them to safety.  He resigned in a rather odd way after signing a load of players, maybe the owner fancied his replacement more or there had been a falling out.

I have to admit that I don't like Pressley.  When he was at Falkirk he always had an excuse for his failure to get them challenging for promotion, usually along the lines of playing the right way, bringing through youngsters etc etc.  I think Alex Smith joined the club around that time and that is Smith's stock in trade so it doesn't surprise me.  In England he's done OK, nothing amazing, no great success but not been that abject.  On the plus side he'll have a lot of experience of looking for players in England, he's not raw, he obviously understands management.  On the downside I don't think he's got what it takes to take a team and drive them to win - when he was at Falkirk he was full of excuses for them finishing way behind the sides I listed earlier, usually about playing teh right way, bringing through youngsters etc.  Alex Smith was his director of football and he was signing from his hymn sheet.  That's not what we need, we need to win - look at the two managers who won us the First Division previously, both focused winners, whatever weaknesses they had.  Add to that he'll probably think he can get a job at a higher level than the Scottish Championship I'd say that he's unlikely to take it.

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Dan Clark    14

Current odds for our managers position

 

Paul Sheerin 2-1

Paul Hartley 4-1

Terry Butcher 7-1

Maurice Malpas 7-1

Danny Lennon 10-1

Darren Dods 10-1

Barry Ferguson 16-1

Mark Macghee 16-1

Steven Pressley 16-1

Billy Davies 16-1

John Hughes 16-1

Jim Weir 16-1

Gus MacPherson 16-1

Jimmy Calderwood 16-1

Barry Robson 16-1

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