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Caman

5th Place

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On 4/17/2018 at 5:06 PM, TheMantis said:

Or as Barley Chatterman would put it (stay awake at the back there!):

Assume for simplicity that all teams are equal in ability.

Premier club

P(win) = 0.5

Championship runner-up

P(win) = 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25

Championship 3rd/4th place

P(win) = 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.125

I think the point being made is that the odds are not stacked against the finalist from the Championship. As you've so gracefully demonstrated, the odds are indeed stacked against the individual clubs who want to become that finalist, but once they've reached the final the argument is just about whether they're too knackered to compete. 

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29 minutes ago, Caley Stan said:

I think the point being made is that the odds are not stacked against the finalist from the Championship. As you've so gracefully demonstrated, the odds are indeed stacked against the individual clubs who want to become that finalist, but once they've reached the final the argument is just about whether they're too knackered to compete. 

Sure, but you’ll have to ask DWH if that’s what he meant when he started it on Tuesday. It’s not how I read it.

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Since the current format of play-offs came in no team from the Championship has achieved promotion to the Premiership.  Not sure if you can really draw many conclusions from that - being honest all the teams involved were clearly of a lower standard than the Premiership opponents.

If we were to manage to qualify for the play offs it would be remarkable and I don't think any team has ever qualified in a comparable way.  Looking at it

2014/15 - Hearts win title, Hibs, Rangers and QotS play offs.  Hibs and Rangers were clear in 2nd and 3rd and QotS were only out of the top four for one week from week 4 to the end of the season.

2015/16 - Rangers win title, Falkirk, Hibs and Raith Rovers play offs.  Raith are nearly 20 points clear of fourth, top four didn't change for the last three months of season.

2016/17 - Hibs win title, Morton, Dundee United and Falkirk play offs.  Morton are only four points clear but the top four teams are the same from week 14 to week 36.

this season has been a bit more changeable with Morton, Dunfermline and Dundee Utd swapping places during the season behind St MIrren and Livingston.  If we were to somehow do this we'd be the only come-from-behind play-off qualifiers since the format began.

One thing that this does give us is momentum.  It's difficult to quantify but in all the above seasons I think that the teams in the play-offs have all realised for many months that they are going to get in and have gone a bit stale.  If we were to get in we'd be flying and in a far more positive frame of mind than the previous qualifiers.  As I said, momentum and confidence are difficult to quantify but it could be a factor.

 

I'd qualify this by saying I don' think we'll get there - it's too much to ask and with the suspensions and better opposition in the next week I think we'll fall short.

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11 minutes ago, ictchris said:

Since the current format of play-offs came in no team from the Championship has achieved promotion to the Premiership. 

Hamilton relegated Hibs in the first season of this format in 2013/14. 

Edited by HawkeyeTheGnu

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18 minutes ago, HawkeyeTheGnu said:

Hamilton relegated Hibs in the first season of this format in 2013/14. 

That was a different format - the runners up in the Championship played the 11th placed team in the Premiership in a two-legged playoff.

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11 minutes ago, ictchris said:

That was a different format - the runners up in the Championship played the 11th placed team in the Premiership in a two-legged playoff.

Nope. 

Falkirk beat QoS 4-3 (1-2, 3-1 aet) in the QF

Hamilton beat Falkirk 2-1 (1-1, 0-1) in the SF

Hamilton beat Hibs 4-3 on pens (0-2, 2-0 aet) in the Final

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44 minutes ago, ictchris said:

 

 

I'd qualify this by saying I don' think we'll get there - it's too much to ask and with the suspensions and better opposition in the next week I think we'll fall short.

^^^^^^^^ This, all day long. 

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10 minutes ago, HawkeyeTheGnu said:

Nope. 

Falkirk beat QoS 4-3 (1-2, 3-1 aet) in the QF

Hamilton beat Falkirk 2-1 (1-1, 0-1) in the SF

Hamilton beat Hibs 4-3 on pens (0-2, 2-0 aet) in the Final

I didn't know that, can't remember any of those semi-finals.

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18 hours ago, Robert said:

Evidenced by Brechin getting promoted after finishing fourth and being out of their depth.

I support going to straight semis and final.

hard one, this - I get the argument on both sides here. It's heavily weighted towards the team that finishes 11th in the Premiership anyway. I think Hamilton are the only team that have ever been promoted through the playoffs? Mind you, that WAS against Hibs!

The way we are playing just now is a great building block for next season & if we make the playoffs, it'll be up there with anything achieved in the past

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I haven't looked at it in detail but Brechin must be the team with the worst record to get promoted in any of the play-offs?  They had a negative goal difference, lost more games than they won and won both their play-off ties via penalty shoot-outs.

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Caman - you should be ashamed for starting this thread! Why did you not say “4th” instead of “5th”? And why did you not tell us all to put our life savings on finishing 5th?🤑 I hope, at least, that you did exactly that because your prediction looks like being spot-on! :cry:😤

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1 hour ago, PerfICT said:

Caman - you should be ashamed for starting this thread! Why did you not say “4th” instead of “5th”? And why did you not tell us all to put our life savings on finishing 5th?🤑 I hope, at least, that you did exactly that because your prediction looks like being spot-on! :cry:😤

The season isn't finished yet. So don't get excited or disheartened. Or both!!!

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On 09/04/2018 at 4:34 PM, Caman said:

Prize money figures.  Let's get as high up this league as possible!!!

Championship
1st - £533,000 (2.25%)
2nd - £450,000 (1.9%)
3rd - £379,000 (1.6%)
4th - £308,000 (1.3%)
5th - £237,000 (1.0%)
6th - £213,000 (0.9%)
7th - £201,000 (0.85%)
8th - £190,000 (0.80%)
9th - £178,000 (0.75%)
10th - £166,000 (0.7%)


Read more at https://spfl.co.uk/news/article/record-prize-money-for-spfl-clubs/#wPxUGtsgGSf23yle.99

Just a wee reminder of the figures involved. I think we were in 8th place when I posted this (forgive me if that's wrong), but £47,000 better of now than we were for most of the season in 8th place. That's got to be a positive. 

A bit bizarre though that being 4th is £142,000 worse off than 2nd, but could ultimately end with getting you into the 'riches' of the Premiership. 

 

 

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