hislopsoffsideagain

I've already put this up on Twitter, but it feels like someone turned up at the stadium and told the board "I've sold battery farms to Brockway, Ogdenville and North Haverbrook and by gum it put them on the map!"

When you look at other full time clubs outwith the Premiership they are all running losses. Some (Queen's Park, Falkirk) are even worse than ours.

The truth is that being full time in the Championship or League One is viable only if you have significant backing from owners/directors. The costs are just too high. Whilst there are clearly ways the club could be run better I don't think it is realistic to have a competent team on the pitch and run a profit. Ayr, Cove, Dundee, Queen's Park and Dunfermline have that significant backing. Morton and Partick Thistle are fan-owned and it'll be interesting to see how that pans out. Hamilton, Raith Rovers and Falkirk, like us, appear to be basket cases.

As stated above one of the big problems with going part-time is that our player pool would be drastically reduced because of geography; we would be far more likely to end up like Elgin City than like Arbroath. So taking that step is likely to just lead to further irreversible decline.

So we are between a rock and a hard place. Either the directors continue to subsidise our losses and we muddle on hoping we hit the jackpot and get promoted, or we find a sugar daddy (anyone want to seek out Alan Savage and kiss his feet?) or we are screwed.

2 hours ago, CaleyTennis said:

Where the hell do we go from here because, apart from a rich owner buying the club or investing in the club, i have I'm stumped!!

I see on Twitter from the Narey geezer that there are projects such as a battery farm (which he isn't confident will get planning approved) and other projects and one of the replies was that supposedly Roy McGregor's bro was being muted. last

The last thing this club needs is administration or another relegation so hopefully we can pull away from that which then gives us no need to sack the management team which would be a plus.

For a guy that is a natural in silence I really hope Mr Gardiner has ideas and not crap ones like the concerts! 

 

I am deeply concerned now though I know it's part and parcel of football now, I'm fairly certain we aren't the only club in this situation!

 

"The Narey geezer"...

7 minutes ago, RiG said:

That was in the 2021 accounts as well but our future projections were based on commercial parking opportunities and commercial events being realised. How did those concerts go again...?

This time around it's the auditors raising concerns. I think that suggests the auditors would not sign off the accounts without their worries being noted. That's not a good sign, I believe.

I hope there is some decent substance to the hydro pump, battery farm and freeport chat, because it all sounds like pie in the sky stuff to me.

My (very limited) understanding is that the Going Concern comments from the auditor should scare us a bit.

As a caveat, I think all full-time clubs that are not in the Premiership and who don't have a wealthy backer are really struggling right now. Costs are up for lots of different reasons and income is not really going up much unless you get promoted.

Well, Companies House says that the next set of accounts are due by the end of this month, so it doesn't seem that there is any 'delay' as of yet.

I had also wondered about the camera. What happened to the wonderful highlights package Andy and his team put together for matches previously, from the other side of the ground?

It seems a shame that we've waited so long for a win yet three days later there's no sign of footage of two of the goals, let alone a highlights package.

Confidence is everything for a goalkeeper.

Last night's back four is nowhere near good enough for this level and to be fair anyone missing their first choice CBs in this league would struggle badly, particularly if their first choice central midfield isn't there to protect them either

I remember when Ridgers first arrived and he had a dreadful few months. The big catalyst for his improvement was that we signed Coll Donaldson and the back four improved dramatically; when he had the likes of Matthew Elsdon in front of him he was being peppered with shots constantly and the number of goals we conceded clearly rocked him. But he has not become a bad goalie overnight, nor has Cammy Mackay suddenly become anything more than a cheap 'break glass in case of emergency' backup keeper. Even if he is having a bad patch Ridgers is our best choice in goal both in the short and long term.

It's hard to comment on Dodds' decision to sub him at half-time; if they've had a falling out and words have been said then it's certainly possible Ridgers crossed a line. However we were 3-0 down on live TV and playing like s*** so no wonder tempers were flared. If Dodds wants to send him a message by subbing him then fine. But for him to then make it clear on live TV that the substitution of Ridgers was not injury-related seems to me like really poor management. What does he expect to gain from humiliating the player like that? It's certainly not going to improve Ridgers' frame of mind. Surely what happens in the dressing room should stay in the dressing room?

We are in a bad place right now - as would be any other team in this league with our injury list. That's mostly bad luck. But we need to muddle through the best we can till players start coming back; if morale is a mess then results won't improve even with a stronger squad. Feels to me like whatever Dodds does next regarding his goalkeeper is going to be pivotal in lots of ways.

As someone who supported Thistle prior to the merger, I've always wished they would make the away top red and black stripes. And that strip is an absolute belter.

Would be delighted if we signed Tumilty. He was very good for Raith in 2020/21 and started last season well too; his form went off a cliff in the second half of the season with the rest of the Raith team but I thought he had a chance of a move to someone like Livingston this summer. Certainly Raith are disappointed that he is likely to leave. He's a very attack-minded full-back and would surely free up Carson to go back into midfield (FWIW I think Carson has been generally very good at RB)

Club accounts for 2020/21 are tough to analyze because of Covid losses - and also because of the funding clubs received from the government as a result.

As regards ICT's own situation, I would put forward this question - How many full-time clubs in Scotland are not running either at a loss or close to the wind, year-in, year-out?

At the top end you have Rangers and Celtic. Rangers have run up extraordinary losses since 2012 and probably require Champions League football to make a profit. Celtic either need Champions League football or to see a player for an eight figure fee to cover the shortfall.

In last season's Premiership there was also Aberdeen (wealthy American backer), Hearts (fan-owned but getting more than £3m a year in 'donations' from a wealthy supporter), Hibs (wealthy American backer), Dundee United (wealthy American backer), Dundee (wealthy American backer) and Ross County (uncle Roy). That's six more clubs not really living within their means. The other four are St. Mirren, Motherwell, St. Johnstone and Livingston, each of whom are very frugal and each of whom could quite conceivably end up stuck in the Championship for a sustained period like us.

In last season's Championship there was Kilmarnock (who will have run up a big loss to get back into the top flight). The other full-time clubs in our league with similar budgets to ours were Hamilton, Partick, Raith and Dunfermline, none of whom are raking it in. Ayr, Morton and QOS I think had even tighter purse-strings.

Below us were Queen's Park (wealthy backer), Airdrie (who have a hybrid of PT and FT players) and Falkirk (who are a basketcase).

My belief is that unless you have a lot of outside money coming in, then a club of our size can't currently turn a profit unless they are in the Premiership and probably punching above their weight (ie in the top six). It's also my belief that the only way to make a small fortune out of a Scottish football club is to start with a big fortune.

The two concerns going forward for us and clubs like us are 1) that directors at some point can no longer be persuaded to cover the shortfall (which seems unlikely but can never be ruled out) and 2) that we get overtaken by smaller clubs who do have money. Queen's Park are a potential example; Cove Rangers (who are currently part-time) could be another in the future.

The only answers to our problems are 1) getting promoted or 2) getting our own Roy MacGregor. 

37 minutes ago, RiG said:

I feel like that statement was updated after it was posted. I didn't see Hardy mentioned in it at all... 

I feel like you're being nice because you know I'm now worried I'm going senile!

Hardy isn't mentioned as having left - I wonder whether that means he may be joining permanently - Yes he is, I'm clearly blind

"a run which saw us not win a match in 3 months, following some horrible circumstances that quite honestly, no decent person should have to deal with"...if that's referring to what I think it's referring to, that's certainly an interesting way of putting it...

Given how few players we have signed up, losing Deas or Carson would be pretty grim even if we got cash for either.

The situation with Sutherland is tricky; we really should be looking after him but on our budget can we afford to pay a player who may not play at all, especially since we will probably be light on numbers as it is?

Sounds like Devine and Welsh are coming back, and it would be a surprise if Cammy Mackay and Hyde didn't stay too.

Doran has been a wonderful servant to the club but certainly seems be trending downwards. Hard to justify keeping him on. Is he not entitled to a testimonial by now?

I remain unconvinced by Duffy and I suspect the management team are too.

Signed up for next season:

Mark Ridgers

David Carson

Robbie Deas

Cameron Harper

Scott Allardice

Roddy MacGregor

Tom Walsh

Billy Mckay

Austin Samuels

Definitely leaving:

Reece McAlear (end of loan)

Logan Chalmers (end of loan)

Joe Hardy (end of loan)

Kirk Broadfoot

Ryan Fyffe (signed for Buckie Thistle)

Out of contract:

Cammy Mackay

Danny Devine

Wallace Duffy

Harry Nicolson

Lewis Nicolson

Aaron Doran

Lewis Hyde

Sean Welsh

Shane Sutherland

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Samuels could be a really good signing. I was very impressed with him against Kilmarnock, where he proved a decent physical match for Ash Taylor and he has pace to burn. He's clearly not a winger - we learnt that from the games at Hamilton and Partick earlier in the season. But I think with a run of games he could do really well. Obviously Sutherland's wonderful cross was the main factor in the goal but Samuels' instincts to attack that area of the boss, to get the jump on Akinola, were very encouraging.

"Robbie Crawford - The Globetrotting versatile Midfield player has transferred to Partick from Motherwell FC. The one time Rangers FC player has had spells in Iceland, Finland and in the USA with USL Championship club Charleston Battery."

It's not the same Robbie Crawford who came through the ranks of Rangers. It's the one who came through at Ayr and more recently played for Livi and Motherwell...

Kilmarnock need to go up this year, otherwise they are going to be in massive trouble financially. Therefore they are throwing everything at this. I expect even their loan signings are costing them some cash - they won't have been the only club looking to get in Daniel Mackay for example. Their budget is the highest in the division by miles and we can't possibly compete with it. Ash Taylor will be on crazy money.

I'd like to think Dodds has a plan for all these attackers he has signed, but it may well be the case that he's taken a punt on several players who have plenty of upside (Hardy was good enough that Liverpool signed him as a 22 year old; Chalmers has been heralded as a star in the making for a few years at Dundee United) and if even one of them turns out to be a goalscoring machine then that will make a huge difference to us.

I feel like we will be massively short in midfield when Welsh inevitably gets injured though...

23 minutes ago, RiG said:

Must be a new record on CTO to write off the manager and new signings after *checks notes* four games...

I think I wrote off Foran after six...but I think we all wish the club had too!

1 hour ago, Kingsmills said:

Far from convinced that he has any more potential than our own young forwards and I would still like to see another defender.

I mentioned my concerns about the signing on Twitter, but a lot of St. Mirren fans have been quite insistent that this kid is a talent and they think he'll do well for us. Fingers crossed.

On 7/2/2021 at 2:49 PM, Scotty said:

think out of the box - season long loans for Luke Singh and Rocco Romeo from Toronto FC! With football still somewhat restricted over here, and former feeder teams in Ottawa and elsewhere not able to accept players, TFC do seem to look further afield for opportunities for loanees ..... why not us ! 

 

Luke Singh (20) - decent (6'2") centre back who was called up from TFC II to the first team as a squad player for the CONCACAF Champions League match against Club Leon from Mexico. Got an unexpected start in that game and was then kept in the first team squad on an upgraded contract after doing well in the Champions League. Has made 2 additional first team starts for TFC in MLS and scored 1 goal. Currently loaned back to TFC II. Looks like a good prospect. Was on trial at Brondby at one point but made no appearances due to an injury. Recently called up to both the Canadian and Trinidad & Tobago national training camps as he is eligible for both until he decides who to represent. 

Rocco Romeo (21) - another centre back (6'4" and solid) who looks like a decent prospect. Has not made any first team starts as he has spent most of the last two seasons on loan at HB Koge in Denmark. Another who was recently called up to the international camps and is currently trying to get into the Canadian Olympic Squad.  

 

Neither would have a realistic chance of getting a work permit. 

If Storey is away, we've lost eight first team players since the end of the season - Brad McKay and Kevin McHattie in defence, Scott Allan and James Vincent in midfield and Nikolay Todorov, Daniel Mackay and James Keatings in attack (I don't think Arron Lyall contributed enough to be called a first team player)

I'd argue that we need to replace all eight. I think it would be ambitious to rely on Nicolson, Fyffe and Hyde to have the same impact that Harper, MacGregor and Daniel Mackay had last season.

We've brought back Walsh, so that leaves another seven holes to fill.

The current squad (only players who have played competitively for the first team listed)

Goalkeepers: Mackay, Ridgers

Defenders: Carson, Deas, Devine, Duffy, Fyffe, Harper, Nicolson

Midfielders: Allardice, Hyde, MacGregor, Welsh

Attacking midfielders: Doran, McDonald, Walsh

Strikers: Sutherland

We certainly need reinforcements at CB, either RB or CM (depending on where Dodds wants to play Carson), and up front and a guy who can play the no. 10 role as well.

43 minutes ago, RiG said:

Miles Storey has posted on social media that he is assuming he will be off as no contract offer has been received and no one from the club has been in touch with him. Really poor to leave players in limbo like this and it wouldn't take much to reach out to them. There are plenty of rumours swirling around who has gone and who might be gone but some clarification from the club would be welcome. 

That is pretty grim.

From what I can tell, ICT are one of only four clubs in the whole SPFL who haven't confirmed player releases yet - the others are Celtic (whose player contracts run till the end of June), Annan (who have announced releases in dribs and drabs) and newly promoted Kelty Hearts. It is just downright weird that the club haven't said anything yet...and even weirder if they haven't bothered to tell the players either...

Gardyne is 35 but you wouldn't have known it from watching him last season. Whilst I imagine he doesn't have the same pace he had ten years ago he clearly keeps himself in excellent shape. He's also an extremely intelligent player and uses his experience to compensate for slowing down a bit. There's always an element of risk with signing players of his age but a guy who started 21 Premiership games last season is not to be sneezed at.

I was a huge fan of Walsh during his first spell with us. His ability to get half a yard on the full-back and whip in a dangerous cross with either foot is not to be sniffed at, and he offered a decent goal threat himself too. His spell at Ayr was wrecked by injuries - as was his second season with us - so the key here is keeping him fit. The thought of having two of Walsh, McDonald and Doran (if he signs a new contract) playing wide for us is pretty exciting.