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hislopsoffsideagain

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  1. hislopsoffsideagain
    What do you mean, you weren't around for the first 11 years I did this?

    Let's look back at the previous ones, not least because many of them make me cringe.


    PREVIOUS TEAMS OF THE YEAR

    2007/08: Allan McGregor (Rangers), Alan Hutton (Rangers), Carlos Cuellar (Rangers), Lee Wilkie (Dundee United), Lee Naylor (Celtic), Barry Robson (Celtic), Stephen Hughes (Motherwell), Barry Ferguson (Rangers), Aiden McGeady (Celtic), Scott McDonald (Celtic), Steven Fletcher (Hibernian)

    2008/09: Lukasz Zaluska (Dundee United), Andreas Hinkel (Celtic), Gary Caldwell (Celtic), Lee Wilkie (Dundee United), Sasa Papac (Rangers), Scott Brown (Celtic), Bruno Aguiar (Hearts), Pedro Mendes (Rangers), Andrew Driver (Hearts), Scott McDonald (Celtic), Kris Boyd (Rangers)

    2009/10: John Ruddy (Motherwell), Steven Whittaker (Rangers), David Weir (Rangers), Andy Webster (Dundee United), Sasa Papac (Rangers), Steven Davis (Rangers), Morgaro Gomis (Dundee United), James McArthur (Hamilton), Anthony Stokes (Hibernian), Kris Boyd (Rangers), David Goodwillie (Dundee United)

    2010/11: Marian Kello (Hearts), Steven Whittaker (Rangers), Daniel Majstorovic (Celtic), Michael Duberry (St. Johnstone), Emilio Izaguirre (Celtic), Steven Naismith (Rangers), Beram Kayal (Celtic), Alexei Eremenko (Kilmarnock), David Templeton (Hearts), Nikica Jelavic (Rangers), David Goodwillie (Dundee United)
    2011/12: Cammy Bell (Kilmarnock), Adam Matthews (Celtic), Carlos Bocanegra (Rangers), Charlie Mulgrew (Celtic), Paul Dixon (Dundee United), James Forrest (Celtic), Victor Wanyama (Celtic), Ian Black (Hearts), Dean Shiels (Kilmarnock), Jon Daly (Dundee United), Gary Hooper (Celtic)

    2012/13: Fraser Forster (Celtic), Mihael Kovacevic (Ross County), Gary Warren (Inverness CT), Mark Reynolds (Aberdeen), Stevie Hammell (Motherwell), Victor Wanyama (Celtic), Nicky Law (Motherwell), Murray Davidson (St. Johnstone), Leigh Griffiths (Hibernian), Michael Higdon (Motherwell), Billy Mckay (Inverness CT) 

    2013/14: Jamie MacDonald (Hearts), Dave Mackay (St. Johnstone), Virgil Van Dijk (Celtic), Mark Reynolds (Aberdeen), Andrew Robertson (Dundee United), Scott Brown (Celtic), Stuart Armstrong (Dundee United), Peter Pawlett (Aberdeen), Kris Commons (Celtic), Kris Boyd (Kilmarnock), Stevie May (St. Johnstone)

    2014/15: Craig Gordon (Celtic), Shay Logan (Aberdeen), Virgil Van Dijk (Celtic), Jason Denayer (Celtic), Graeme Shinnie (Inverness CT), Ryan Jack (Aberdeen), Greg Tansey (Inverness CT), Greg Stewart (Dundee), Stefan Johansen (Celtic), Gary Mackay-Steven (Dundee United/Celtic), Adam Rooney (Aberdeen)

    2015/16: Jamie MacDonald (Kilmarnock), Callum Paterson (Hearts), Igor Rossi (Hearts), Andrew Davies (Ross County), Graeme Shinnie (Aberdeen), Nir Bitton (Celtic), Jackson Irvine (Ross County), Jonny Hayes (Aberdeen), Kenny McLean (Aberdeen), Marvin Johnson (Motherwell), Leigh Griffiths (Celtic)

    2016/17: Joe Lewis (Aberdeen), Callum Paterson (Hearts), Jozo Simunovic (Celtic), Joe Shaughnessy (St. Johnstone), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Jonny Hayes (Aberdeen), Stuart Armstrong (Celtic), Adam Barton (Partick Thistle), Scott Sinclair (Celtic), Moussa Dembele (Celtic), Liam Boyce (Ross County)
    2017/18: Jon McLaughlin (Hearts), James Tavernier (Rangers), Scott McKenna (Aberdeen), Christophe Berra (Hearts), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Scott Brown (Celtic), Dylan McGeouch (Hibernian), John McGinn (Hibernian), James Forrest (Celtic), Daniel Candeias (Rangers), Kris Boyd (Kilmarnock)

    Kris Boyd holds the record for most appearances on this list, with four. Can he make it five this year? (Spoiler: of course he can't).

    When this tradition began all the way back in 2008 Gordon Strachan was Celtic manager, Rangers were on their way to Manchester, Lee Wilkie's knees were still just about holding together, and we were all feeling reasonably bullish about George Burley as the new Scotland boss. And, remarkably, the very first name on that teamsheet is the very first name on this one too...



    GOALKEEPER: ALLAN MCGREGOR (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Zander Clark (St. Johnstone), Liam Kelly (Livingston)

    11 years after he made my first ever Team Of The Year, McGregor is back. Shagger's form has tailed off a bit after Christmas but he was sensational in the first half of the season. He may be 37 but it looks like there's a few years left in him yet. Clark doesn't get enough credit for his consistency for St. Johnstone. Kelly has got a lot of practice at saving shots at times this season, but has made the most of it. Still only 23, he has a very bright future ahead of him.


    RIGHT-BACK: JAMES TAVERNIER (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Michael Smith (Heart of Midlothian), Stephen O'Donnell (Kilmarnock)

    Tavernier gets in for the second year running. I maintain that he isn't quite as dreadful a defender as many make out; even if he is, the goals and assists he provides more than makes up for that. Smith was solid and dependable for Hearts, while O'Donnell deserves to be in the Scotland squad and gets bonus points for his empire biscuit baking skills.


    CENTRE-BACKS: KRISTOFFER AJER (CELTIC), CRAIG HALKETT (LIVINGSTON)
    Honourable mentions: John Souttar (Hearts), Efe Ambrose (Hibernian), Connor Goldson (Rangers), Jason Kerr (St. Johnstone)

    This was really, really hard. My original duo were Souttar, who was terrific for Hearts when fit, and Kerr, who largely flew under the radar despite keeping up his high level of performance even as the rest of the St. Johnstone team hit a spring slump.  There was also a strong argument to be made for Efe Ambrose, who would have been a shoo-in if this had been produced in January; however he left for Derby County. is often the trickiest position to fill and this year was no exception as no candidate really excelled all season long.

    So I asked the twitterverse for their opinions and two names came up repeatedly. Kristoffer Ajer was the first; if Ambrose shone most before Christmas its the young Norwegian who has excelled so far in 2019. It certainly seems like the Norwegian will move onto greater things before too long. He has the physical presence of a Scottish defender but the technical ability of a continental one. And his recent form shows that he continues to improve with experience. Alongside him is Livi's Craig Halkett who has made the step up to the top flight with ease and thoroughly earned his upcoming move to Tynecastle. And he's not even 24 till May.

    The other name worth mentioning in passing is Goldson, though that's mainly based on his no-nonsense performances in the first half of the campaign. He's looked a bit more vulnerable recently though.


    LEFT-BACK: KIERAN TIERNEY (CELTIC)
    Honourable mentions: Max Lowe (Aberdeen), Greg Taylor (Kilmarnock)

    Tierney could play with his eyes closed and still be the best left-back in the country, but I do feel he's reached the limit of how much he can improve when playing in Scotland week-in, week-out. If he's to become the best player he can be, he needs to test himself at a higher level (six Europa League games a year doesn't count).

    Lowe is the left-back Aberdeen have dreamed of for years, which makes it all the more galling that they'll surely lose him in the summer. Taylor continues to learn and develop nicely at Rugby Park. He's played more than 100 Premiership games and he's still only 21.


    Midfield and attack to come in the next few days...


    Lawrie Spence has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007.  He has a life outside this blog.  Honestly.
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  2. hislopsoffsideagain
    All in all, it's practically pre-season already for Celtic and Rangers. The former's victory over the latter last weekend all but guaranteed them the title. Rangers, now eleven points behind their rivals but eight ahead of the chasing pack, are almost nailed on for second spot. They have only one match left that really matters - a home clash with Celtic. In addition to that game Celtic have their remaining Scottish Cup tie(s) to focus on. Aside from those matches the two clubs can pretty much phone in the rest of their performances.

    And the extra time to think about the 2019/20 season will be welcome in both halves of Glasgow. Because there remains uncertainty over who will be in each dugout for the next campaign.

    You don't think Steven Gerrard's position is under threat? It certainly wasn't when the winter break came round, after an Old Firm win put Rangers level on points with Celtic. In fact, the attitude at Ibrox was so bullish that Steven Davis and Jermain Defoe were added during the transfer window. They might 'only' have been loan signings, but even the most conservative estimates of their wages are enough to raise eyebrows.

    And since then they've dropped points to Kilmarnock (twice), St Johnstone and Hibernian in the league as well as Celtic and been knocked out of the cup in a home replay by Aberdeen. Last midweek's victory over Hearts ended a five game winless run, their worst run since putting their feet up after winning the 2015/16 Championship.

    After spending millions last summer on fees and highly paid free transfers, they are only four points better off than at this stage a year ago when Murtyball was running out of steam. All in all, Gerrard has won 28 out of 55 matches in charge of Rangers. That win percentage is much worse than Murty's. It's also worse than Pedro Caixinha's. Heck, it's worse than Paul Le Guen's.

    About the only thing more disappointing than that record is the club's accounts. Another year, another loan from financial house Close Brothers - and you don't need to be an accountant to know that borrowing from someone other than a bank comes attached with an eye-watering level of interest attached. The club won't at last turn a profit for the first time in the Banter Years, not by a long shot.

    So there's plenty of ammunition that can be used against Gerrard. And there seems to have been a wee shift in attitude towards him from the media. Given that Ibrox's resident Jabba The Hutt exerts an element of control over what local hacks are allowed to say about the club, the fact that they've been given licence to take even the smallest pop at Gerrard suggests that at the very least the club hierarchy are underwhelmed by his performance.

     And yet...lies, damned lies and statistics.

    For one thing, there's the eye test. Yes, Rangers have toiled at times this season against well-organized, dug-in opponents. And as regards the gap between them and Celtic, the table does not deceive. But this is not Murtyball. There is a coherent strategy here. There isn't a decent Plan B but just having a Plan A that works more often than not at Premiership level makes Gerrard the most competent manager of the Newco years.

    The failures in both domestic cups were a disaster, but I feel Gerrard was entitled to a lot more credit than he got for getting them to the Europa League Group Stage - and making them competitive there. In many an away game he was able to set them up to grind out a result. (It's the Europa League games that wreck that win percentage, by the way). And lord knows what those interim financial results would look like without the prize money earned from that campaign.

    That's not to say Stevie G is the next coming of Bill Shankly. Not by a long shot. But if Dave King and co. are tempted by the thought of trying to force him out, they need to resist it. This club is crying out for a bit of stability and consistency.

    So too are Celtic. And that's why they shouldn't appoint Neil Lennon permanently.

    In contrast to Gerrard, the stats favour the Northern Irishman. Celtic have played seven games since Lennon was parachuted in and they've won five...including a derby...and drawn two. And of course he won three titles and two Scottish Cups during his first spell at the club.

    A sizeable proportion of the club's fanbase - those ones who feel Rodgers betrayed them by leaving for Leicester City (and who therefore really need to get a life) - will also point to Lennon being 'a Celtic man' as a crucial factor.

    But the eye test which is so much more forgiving to Gerrard is far less so to Lennon. In six league games they have won three via late goals and been held to a draw at Celtic Park by both Aberdeen and Livingston. Against Hearts, Dundee and Rangers they got the job done but played for long periods not just as if the handbrake was on but also that they couldn't work out how to release it. Rodgers' Celtic won with ten men at Ibrox last year; Celtic were deservedly pegged back by Rangers' 10 men last week and you wouldn't have confidently said they were the most likely to nick a winger before James Tavernier's blunder. It's hard to believe that, with Rodgers pulling the strings, there wouldn't have been more energy and more creativity both from the players on the pitch and from the management team.

    As for Lennon's own record as a manager, it remains more patchy than many would readily realize or admit. His three titles came during the season that preceded liquidation and the two that followed - titles that you and me could have guided the club to. His time at Bolton can be whitewashed because of the massive problems there, but while he met expectations in his first year at Hibs (with promotion) and surpassed them in his second year by finishing fourth everything had gone wrong when he left Easter Road. He didn't resign, and he wasn't sacked, but results were so bad - 2 wins in the last 14 league games - that he was heading for the exit door soon enough.

    Yes, he'll always have Barcelona at Celtic Park. But that feels like quite a rare example of getting his team to punch well above their weight.

    Moreover, Celtic's playing style was transformed by Rodgers. It's a style worth continuing both at first team level and below. And doing so requires a coach with similar principles to Rodgers. Lennon is, basically, a different coach.

    That's not to say finding a successor will be easy; far from it. There's certainly no obvious internal or Scottish candidate, and the world's most renowned coaches have much bigger fish to fry than Scottish football can provide. There's quite a significant risk that they could end up with another Ronny Deila. That reason alone might tempt the board into the safe option, which is undoubtedly Lennon.

    But if Celtic want to continue on an upward trajectory, their best option is a new face. Whereas if Rangers want to do the same they are better sticking with who they already have.


    Lawrie Spence has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007.  He has a life outside this blog.  Honestly.

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  3. hislopsoffsideagain
    The last time Celtic lost three consecutive home matches, Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister, Kylie Minogue was at number one with 'Tears On My Pillow' (no, I've never heard of it either) and Rangers were on their way to Two In A Row.


    Admittedly in the subsequent thirty years there won't have been many times when Celtic played back-to-back-to-back games at Celtic Park against teams of the quality of Rangers, Milan and, um, Sparta Prague, but still.


    How has it come to this?


    Yes, Rangers have improved. We're yet to find out whether yet another post-New Year slump will derail their title push, but it would obviously be foolish for Celtic fans to pin their hopes on that. Steven Gerrard's side are playing with confidence and no little skill. It's worth remembering at this point that, for all the spending down Govan way, Rangers' budget is still way behind Celtic's. For them to be so superior at this point is quite startling...and the way they are going about it is also exposing Celtic's problems for all to see.


    The bottom line is that Rangers have a plan, and Gerrard's squad has been built with it in mind. In contrast, if Celtic's grand strategy for 2020-21 was all about the switch to three-at-the-back, it made no sense to this blogger. Playing three central defenders in the Premiership against teams who sit back and soaked up pressure just unnecessarily robs the team of an attacking or creative player...even more so given Lennon's insistence on deploying Scott Brown at the base of midfield as well.  In Mohamed Elyounoussi, James Forrest and Mikey Johnston they have three wide players who don't obviously fit into that system, though the injuries to the latter two have made this less of an issue than it might have been. Ditto the more natural number tens like Ryan Christie and Tom Rogic.


    The Shane Duffy factor has been thoroughly dissected elsewhere, but the bottom line is that this is not a player that fits what Celtic need in central defence - either in a back three or a back four - in the slightest. Duffy is not a bad player, but his weaknesses are woefully exposed and his qualities are rarely on show in this situation. It is a failure of recruitment. 


    And it isn't the first one. Celtic have signed three left-backs in fifteen months. Greg Taylor and Boli Bolingoli cost £3million each and whilst Kieran Tierney's shoes were always going to be impossible to fill the bottom line is neither player can hold a torch to Rangers' Borna Barisic. Nor were they especially well suited to playing as a wing-back; ironically, as soon as Lennon signed a player tailor-made for the left wing-back role - Diego Laxalt - he reverted back to a back four which currently makes Laxalt look very uncomfortable.


    Meanwhile, the list of players currently out on loan and with no future at the club includes Bolingoli, Vakoun Issouf Bayo, Jack Hendry and Maryan Shved. It's not clear who is leading transfer policy at Celtic, but it does seem that folk are not all on the same page.


    As for the coach himself, it is increasingly tempting to wonder whether Lennon's first spell at Celtic Park was really all that. After all, his three league titles came when the closest opposition were a Rangers side on the brink of liquidation, Motherwell and Motherwell respectively; to be frank Celtic would have won those leagues with you, or me, or even Ronny Deila in charge. In continental competition, take away Tony Watt's goal against Barcelona - bear in mind that Celtic, with 11% possession, rather rode their luck that day - and results were not impressive; they finished rock bottom of their Champions League group in 2013-14 after nearly losing in the qualifiers to Shakhtar Karagandy, while they missed out on both the Champions League and Europa League groups in 2010-11 and only got into the Europa League groups the following year after Sion were disqualified.


    His return in early 2019 as a stopgap made a fair bit of sense given Brendan Rodgers' sudden departure, but in truth the team's form for the rest of that season was hardly all that and they huffed and puffed their way past a pretty putrid Hearts side in the Scottish Cup Final. It was not a performance that justified offering Lennon the job permanently after the match, but it was the romantic option and perhaps the easy one too. It was probably cheaper also in terms of wages, but it could be argued that the European qualifying failures of this season and last have made appointing him very expensive indeed for the club.


    The fact is that since Rodgers left Celtic have largely coasted, as if they feel they are untouchable. In fact, 'stagnated' may be a more appropriate term. On the pitch, there is very little sign of tactical imagination. The formation may have changed recently but in the final third the strategy seems the same; to rely for moments of individual brilliance to unlock defences. It's worth noting that both they and Rangers have endured their star player and talismanic striker suffering a collapse in form this season. Rangers have barely missed a beat despite Alfredo Morelos' struggles; Celtic simply do not look the same without a potent Odsonne Edouard.


    Edouard isn't the only one out of sorts. After the Sparta game, Lennon didn't hold back. He accused the players of being 'lazy' of 'lack of application', 'lack of hunger' and suggested they weren't working hard enough in training and that there was a need for a 'culture change'. The obvious elephant in the room there is the question of who is responsible for working them in training. After all there is precious little evidence during matches that they have worked on anything particularly intricate tactically. Heck, back in August Kieran Devlin at The Athletic reported that a number of players employed their own fitness coaches because they were unsatisfied at what the club was offering.


    There's still time to turn this around - two-thirds of the season in fact. And the Celtic squad has more than enough quality to do so. But it is fair to say we have reached the point where you'd be surprised if Neil Lennon was still in charge by the end of the season. And it's also fair to note that if you're going to change manager, an international break - like the one coming up next week - would seem like the least painful time to do it. Do they take the plunge and sack a manager for the first time since Tony Mowbray? The fate of their Ten In A Row dream may well depend on what decision they make.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  4. hislopsoffsideagain
    I've done this every year for sixteen years, and to be honest it's never felt more like a chore. When you don't have any skin in the game - that's six years Caley Thistle have been stuck in the Championship - it becomes even harder to be motivated by watching Celtic and Rangers pump everybody. It's also more difficult than ever to pick players from other clubs for this XI, because I'm very close to crossing the 'taking the p***' line' by doing so. Still, I've tried my best.


    For historical record, the previous fifteen lineups:


    2007/08: Allan McGregor (Rangers), Alan Hutton (Rangers), Carlos Cuellar (Rangers), Lee Wilkie (Dundee United), Lee Naylor (Celtic), Barry Robson (Celtic), Stephen Hughes (Motherwell), Barry Ferguson (Rangers), Aiden McGeady (Celtic), Scott McDonald (Celtic), Steven Fletcher (Hibernian)


    2008/09: Lukasz Zaluska (Dundee United), Andreas Hinkel (Celtic), Gary Caldwell (Celtic), Lee Wilkie (Dundee United), Sasa Papac (Rangers), Scott Brown (Celtic), Bruno Aguiar (Hearts), Pedro Mendes (Rangers), Andrew Driver (Hearts), Scott McDonald (Celtic), Kris Boyd (Rangers)


    2009/10: John Ruddy (Motherwell), Steven Whittaker (Rangers), David Weir (Rangers), Andy Webster (Dundee United), Sasa Papac (Rangers), Steven Davis (Rangers), Morgaro Gomis (Dundee United), James McArthur (Hamilton), Anthony Stokes (Hibernian), Kris Boyd (Rangers), David Goodwillie (Dundee United)


    2010/11: Marian Kello (Hearts), Steven Whittaker (Rangers), Daniel Majstorovic (Celtic), Michael Duberry (St. Johnstone), Emilio Izaguirre (Celtic), Steven Naismith (Rangers), Beram Kayal (Celtic), Alexei Eremenko (Kilmarnock), David Templeton (Hearts), Nikica Jelavic (Rangers), David Goodwillie (Dundee United)

    2011/12: Cammy Bell (Kilmarnock), Adam Matthews (Celtic), Carlos Bocanegra (Rangers), Charlie Mulgrew (Celtic), Paul Dixon (Dundee United), James Forrest (Celtic), Victor Wanyama (Celtic), Ian Black (Hearts), Dean Shiels (Kilmarnock), Jon Daly (Dundee United), Gary Hooper (Celtic)


    2012/13: Fraser Forster (Celtic), Mihael Kovacevic (Ross County), Gary Warren (Inverness CT), Mark Reynolds (Aberdeen), Stevie Hammell (Motherwell), Victor Wanyama (Celtic), Nicky Law (Motherwell), Murray Davidson (St. Johnstone), Leigh Griffiths (Hibernian), Michael Higdon (Motherwell), Billy Mckay (Inverness CT) 

    2013/14: Jamie MacDonald (Hearts), Dave Mackay (St. Johnstone), Virgil Van Dijk (Celtic), Mark Reynolds (Aberdeen), Andrew Robertson (Dundee United), Scott Brown (Celtic), Stuart Armstrong (Dundee United), Peter Pawlett (Aberdeen), Kris Commons (Celtic), Kris Boyd (Kilmarnock), Stevie May (St. Johnstone)


    2014/15: Craig Gordon (Celtic), Shay Logan (Aberdeen), Virgil Van Dijk (Celtic), Jason Denayer (Celtic), Graeme Shinnie (Inverness CT), Ryan Jack (Aberdeen), Greg Tansey (Inverness CT), Greg Stewart (Dundee), Stefan Johansen (Celtic), Gary Mackay-Steven (Dundee United/Celtic), Adam Rooney (Aberdeen)


    2015/16: Jamie MacDonald (Kilmarnock), Callum Paterson (Hearts), Igor Rossi (Hearts), Andrew Davies (Ross County), Graeme Shinnie (Aberdeen), Nir Bitton (Celtic), Jackson Irvine (Ross County), Jonny Hayes (Aberdeen), Kenny McLean (Aberdeen), Marvin Johnson (Motherwell), Leigh Griffiths (Celtic)


    2016/17: Joe Lewis (Aberdeen), Callum Paterson (Hearts), Jozo Simunovic (Celtic), Joe Shaughnessy (St. Johnstone), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Jonny Hayes (Aberdeen), Stuart Armstrong (Celtic), Adam Barton (Partick Thistle), Scott Sinclair (Celtic), Moussa Dembele (Celtic), Liam Boyce (Ross County)

    2017/18: Jon McLaughlin (Hearts), James Tavernier (Rangers), Scott McKenna (Aberdeen), Christophe Berra (Hearts), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Scott Brown (Celtic), Dylan McGeouch (Hibernian), John McGinn (Hibernian), James Forrest (Celtic), Daniel Candeias (Rangers), Kris Boyd (Kilmarnock)

    2018/19: Allan McGregor (Rangers), James Tavernier (Rangers), Kristoffer Ajer (Celtic), Craig Halkett (Livingston), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Callum McGregor (Celtic), David Turnbull (Motherwell), James Forrest (Celtic), Ryan Christie (Celtic), Ryan Kent (Rangers), Alfredo Morelos (Rangers)

    2019/20: Mark Gillespie (Motherwell), James Tavernier (Rangers), Kristoffer Ajer (Celtic), Jon Guthrie (Livingston), Borna Barisic (Rangers), James Forrest (Celtic), Callum McGregor (Celtic), Ali McCann (St. Johnstone), Niall McGinn (Aberdeen), Odsonne Edouard (Celtic), Alfredo Morelos (Rangers)

    2020/21: Benjamin Siegrist (Dundee United), James Tavernier (Rangers), Conor Goldson (Rangers), Jason Kerr (St. Johnstone), Borna Barisic (Rangers), Steven Davis (Rangers), Ali McCann (St. Johnstone), Ryan Kent (Rangers), David Turnbull (Celtic), Martin Boyle (Hibernian), Odsonne Edouard (Celtic)

    2021/22: Craig Gordon (Hearts), James Tavernier (Rangers), Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic), Ryan Edwards (Dundee United), Stephen Kingsley (Hearts), Callum McGregor (Celtic), Joe Aribo (Rangers), Regan Charles-Cook (Ross County), Barrie McKay (Hearts), Jota (Celtic), Alfredo Morelos (Rangers)

    Onto this year's vintage. As per tradition, we'll start with the goalkeeper and back four. It's always a back four...


    GOALKEEPER: TREVOR CARSON (ST. MIRREN)
    Honourable mentions: Joe Hart (Celtic), Zander Clark (Heart of Midlothian)
    Carson's previous four seasons? Three as Motherwell's backup keeper and one as Dundee United's backup keeper (before moving to Morecambe on loan). So yeah, I think we were all a bit surprised that the Northern Irish veteran has suddenly become amazing. Unquestionably the 35 year old has had the best season of his career.


    Yes, Hart is surely the best goalkeeper in Scotland but its hard to judge the quality of a player who faces about one shot on target every three months. Clark's move to Hearts looked strange to me - was being number two to Craig Gordon for a year or two that good a career move? - but Gordon's injury has given him an opportunity that he has grabbed with both hands.


    RIGHT-BACK: JAMES TAVERNIER (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Nicky Devlin (Livingston), Ryan Strain (St. Mirren)
    That's just the six straight years that the Rangers captain has been in my Team of the Year, though this season it's as much down to a lack of competition as anything else. Still, sixteen league goals is a heck of a return and whilst Rangers have a few problems to deal with this summer he isn't one of them.


    Devlin's consistency for Livingston has earned him a summer move to Aberdeen. Strain has had an excellent first season in Scotland, not least because of his skill with a dead ball. I'm still insisting that players have to have played at least 19 league games to qualify for this, so that rules out both Alistair Johnston and Max Johnston. Don't @ me...


    LEFT-BACK: GREG TAYLOR (CELTIC)
    Honourable mentions: Borna Barisic (Rangers), Alex Cochrane (Heart of Midlothian)
    Taylor has just been so consistent. His development under Ange has been far beyond what I expected and he held off the challenge of new signing Alexandro Bernabei with ease.


    Barisic is probably beginning to decline but is still better than most left-backs in this league, which isn't saying much. Cochrane was superb in the first half of the season but his form has dipped along with his teammates in 2023.


    CENTRE-BACKS: CAMERON CARTER-VICKERS (CELTIC), CONOR GOLDSON (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Carl Starfelt (Celtic), Jack Fitzwater (Livingston), Kye Rowles (Heart of Midlothian), Ryan Porteous (Hibernian)
    Carter-Vickers is far too good for this poxy league and Celtic will be hoping it takes him a few more seasons to realise that. It's remarkable just how much CCV and Goldson are missed when they're not there; the drop off to the backups at Rangers and Celtic is steep indeed.


    If I'd been feeling more reckless I'd have picked Porteous on the back of his performances before he signed for Watford in January. Rowles was amazing before the World Cup but mediocre after. Starfelt was solid except when CCV wasn't alongside him (coincidence?). Fitzwater is the next Livi player who will go on to better things this summer. Oh, and Mattie Pollock just didn't play enough matches for consideration, but he was very good for Aberdeen.




    The midfield and attack will appear at some point. Eventually.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.


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  5. hislopsoffsideagain
    Back in the olden days, when everything was in black and white - or maybe it just felt like that in Aberdeen at the start of the 2000s - I was a regular visitor at Pittodrie. One season under Ebbe Skovdahl the Dons finished fourth in the league; later on under Jimmy Calderwood they came fourth three times and third once. Other league finishes in the early years of the twenty-first century include eighth, eleventh, ninth, ninth, ninth, eighth. And of course there was Skovdahl's first campaign, where they were spared relegation only because Falkirk's ground was at risk of falling down at any moment.


    Leon Mike, Laurent D'Jaffo, Leigh Hinds, David Zdrilic, Lubomir Blaha, Dyron Daal, David Bus, Jerel Ifill...doubtless Aberdeen fans will remember plenty more duffers from that era, but these were names that jogged this particular memory, and not in a nice way. It does no harm to remember that things could, and have been, a heck of a lot worse.


    However, that does not necessarily mean that Derek McInnes should get a free pass.


    Times have changed during the seven years that Deek has managed the Dons. Expectations are higher, and should be. Part of that is down to his own success - four consecutive second places (which would have been five but for a missed foul on the keeper in the final match of the 2013-14 season) - but also investment in the club is rather higher than it was in the dog days of Skovdahl, Steve Paterson and even Craig Brown. The club have the third highest wage bill in Scotland, and by that measure alone coming fourth in each of the last two seasons behind Steve Clarke's Kilmarnock and Stephen Robinson's Motherwell respectively is an underachievement. And there has been just one trophy, a League Cup.


    There is a school of thought that after a few years under the same manager football clubs often become stale, and that is the perfect adjective for how things feel in the North-East. Arguably the peak was the 2016-17 season where they reached both cup finals and went toe-to-toe with Celtic's invincibles in the Scottish Cup Final. Four years later, six of the fourteen who played that day are still at the club, but only keeper Joe Lewis (who has not had a great season by his standards) is really anywhere near that level any more. Shay Logan is rarely trusted now, Andrew Considine's Scotland cap feelgood story shouldn't distract from the fact that he is past his best, and Jonny Hayes, Ash Taylor and Niall McGinn - each of whom left and then came back - appear to be very much on the decline. 


    Rebuilding the team has not gone to plan. In three and a half years, one could argue the only unequivocally successful signings have been Gary Mackay-Steven (now long gone), Lewis Ferguson, Ross McCrorie and Sam Cosgrove (sold for good money last week). The list of duds is rather longer: Michael Devlin and Ronald Hernandez in defence, Greg Tansey, Chris Forrester, Stephen Gleeson, Craig Bryson, Funso Ojo and Dylan McGeouch in midfield as McInnes used up significant resources trying to replicate the Jack-Shinnie-McLean trio in the centre of the park; Curtis Main and James Wilson up front.


    Worse, the club's youth system has not exactly come up trumps, with the exception of Scott McKenna. Scott Wright only shone in fits and bursts, while we're still waiting for Connor McLennan to put it all together and beginning to wonder if Bruce Anderson ever will.


    It's not just personnel that are the problem. Aberdeen's philosophy has not evolved at all since McInnes first arrived. This is especially noticeable when they are out of possession, with a focus on man-to-man marking all over the pitch and immediate pressing of the ball when it is lost. This previously worked well when the overall quality of the team was higher and when they played so much of the game in the opposition half, but now most opponents have them worked out. Teams who are good enough in possession to beat that initial press find space between the lines, and players who are clever enough to switch position (especially coming off the wing) can easily cause havoc with the shape of the team.


    In attack there continues to be a focus on getting it wide and sticking it in the box, which is simply not the most effective way of scoring goals in the modern game. Neither the wide players nor the forwards have been consistently dangerous for months now; Cosgrove had scored only twice from open play in twenty-seven matches before his departure, while Main is a player who can only be effective in nineteen-eighties hoofball. To make matters worse the one impressive forward, Marley Watkins, got injured during his loan spell and returned south. Their leading assist providers, Hayes and Ryan Hedges, are averaging one assist every eight league games. Hedges is now out for the season.


    The deadline day wheeler-dealing in strikers felt very un-McInnes, a throw of the dice from a manager who generally seems risk-averse. Given everything else, such unorthodoxy is probably not a bad thing. The odds of one or more of Fraser Hornby, Callum Hendry and Florian Kamberi proving their worth are probably decent, but it feels like an act of desperation than a cunning plan. If it turns out as a double six, revitalizes the place and drags the Dons back into third place with some momentum, then maybe, just maybe, there is still a future at Aberdeen for the current boss. But it does feel like too little to late, like change is inevitable.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  6. hislopsoffsideagain
    So there's only, what, three months of the season left? We're getting to that time where managers are beginning to think of who will be in next season's squad, where some players are either getting their agents to try and get them a move or panicking that they might be unemployed by the end of May.

    Going by the information available, 117 players with first team experience are out of contract in the summer. Let's break them, and their likely fates, down...


    ABERDEEN
    Luc Bollan, Tomas Cerny, Danny Rogers, Frank Ross

    The future of Cerny and Rogers depends largely on what the Dons are looking for in a no. 2 keeper next season. It wouldn't be a surprise if the former, 35 in April, stayed on. Rogers is on his gazillionth loan spell and surely if he had a future in the North East he'd have got a crack by now. Injuries have restricted Ross to just four games in the last season and a half and it would take an enormous show of faith in his potential for him to be given another deal. Youngster Bollan hasn't got anywhere near the first team since arriving last summer from Dundee United.


    CELTIC
    Craig Gordon, Jonny Hayes, Calvin Miller, Stephen Welsh

    It seems like Gordon, 37, is agitating for one last go at first team football given there was talk of him moving on in January. Hayes is now the wrong side of 30 and attempts to convert him into a full-back have not been successful enough to justify keeping him on; it would be no surprise if he joined another Premiership club though. Miller has missed the whole season with a knee injury and Celtic have a habit of giving youngsters contract extensions if only so that they can get a small fee and/or a perecentage of future transfer fees from selling them later; that should mean a new contract for both him and Welsh, who made his debut last month after a 'meh' loan spell at Morton earlier in the season.


    HAMILTON ACCIES
    Steve Davies, Markus Fjortoft, Alex Gogic, Kyle Gourlay, Ronan Hughes, Scott Martin, Aaron McGowan, Mickel Miller, Reegan Mimnaugh, David Moyo, George Oakley, Marios Ogkmpoe, George Stanger, David Templeton, Andy Winter

    A caveat first: Accies are worse than anyone - except maybe Ross County - for keeping contract lengths secret. Why? I have no idea. A few years back the then-club secretary, Scott Struthers, would happily respond to email requests for info, but that was then and this is now. So it's possible that Owain Fon Williams, Johnny Hunt and Blair Alston should be on this list, but in the last few years players whose contract details have not been disclosed have usually been given two year contracts by Hamilton.


    As for those on the list, the first question is 'who might attract a bigger club?' The only two names that jump out there are Alex Gogic and David Templeton. Moreover, with the club's top flight status likely to go down to the wire there are not likely to be many extensions on the horizon for anyone and relegation will obvious affect the budget. Those most likely to move on regardless would be veteran backup striker Davies, youngster Hughes who hasn't fulfilled his potential and third choice keeper Gourlay.


    HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN
    Donis Avdijaj, Daniel Baur, Oliver Bozanic, Jamie Brandon, Rory Currie, Clevid Dikamona, Euan Henderson, Marcel Langer, Cammy Logan, Steven MacLean, Leeroy Makovora, Lewis Moore, Alex Petkov

    Several of these names are youths who have only a handful of first-team minutes. Henderson and Moore have been in the first team frame in recent weeks and so would surely be candidates for new deals. In contrast, injury-prone Levein favourite Brandon may not be so fortunate. 

    Of those more senior, Avdijaj and Langer are only a few weeks into short-term deals so can't really be judged, whilst MacLean is on loan at Raith and so surely won't play for the club again. Bozanic and Dikamona are squad players who the club really should be looking to upgrade on.


    HIBERNIAN
    Adam Bogdan, Vykintas Slivka, Steven Whittaker

    With a list this small, Jack Ross' main concern will be shifting the deadwood that's still under contract. Whittaker wants to keep playing but he's 36 next summer and surely won't get another deal. Bogdan might stay if both he and the club are happy with him being number two keeper. One wonders if Slivka might benefit from a fresh start elsewhere.


    KILMARNOCK
    Harry Bunn, Chris Burke, Gary Dicker, Mohamed El Makrini, Adam Frizzell, Stephen Hendrie, Greg Kiltie, Jan Koprivec, Jamie MacDonald, Devlin Mackay, Rory McKenzie, Ross Millen, Stephen O'Donnell, Iain Wilson

    Of this quite long list, only O'Donnell could realistically leave for a bigger club. He'll be 28 in May and it'll surely be his last big contract. It'll be interesting to see if Killie finally choose to cut loose any of Kiltie, Wilson and Frizzell, all highly-touted youngsters who have failed to make the expected progress. At the other end of the age spectrum Burke is in wonderful shape for 36 but surely doesn't have much left in the tank, while captain Dicker will be 34 in the summer. El Makrini may not have done enough to justify triggering the option on his contract and Jamie MacDonald's Killie career is essentially over.

    However, the club will surely offer McKenzie a new deal and Millen provides relatively cheap depth. Bunn signed a short-term deal in January.


    LIVINGSTON
    Chris Erskine, Jack Hamilton, Craig Henderson, Ricki Lamie, Steven Lawless, Gary Maley, Jack McMillan, Aaron Taylor-Sinclair, Scott Tiffoney

    Lawless has arguably had the season of his career and may be hard for Livi to retain. Lamie, McMillan and Taylor-Sinclair are all first teamers who you would expect to be offered new deals. It's not clear that Tiffoney, Hamilton and Henderson have made enough progress to justify contracts though, while Erskine's top flight days are surely numbered. Remarkably, 37 year old third choice keeper Maley is actually on a part-time deal.


    MOTHERWELL
    Charles Dunne, Rohan Ferguson, Mark Gillespie, Peter Hartley, Christian Ilic, Adam Livingstone, Christopher Long, Barry Maguire, Christy Manzinga, Richard Tait, Tony Watt

    The Steelmen will be particularly desperate to hold onto first choice keeper Gillespie and striker Long, which will not be easy. Veteran Tait has lost his place in the starting lineup this season but it would be a surprise if he doesn't stay around, whilst Hartley has broken back in in the last few months. Its hard to know where Dunne and Ilic stand because of recent injuries, but Stephen Robinson highly rates the latter.

    Of the strikers, Watt has only just arrived but Manzinga has not really shone so far. Youngsters Ferguson, Livingstone and Maguire have not established themselves in the way other youth academy players have in the last few years.


    RANGERS
    Jak Alnwick, Jon Flanagan, Wes Foderingham, Andy Halliday, Jason Holt, Jordan Rossiter, Aidan Wilson

    I wouldn't expect any of these players to remain. Holt, Rossiter and Alnwick have essentially been away on loan for most of the last two seasons. Foderingham wants another crack at being a first choice keeper. It's hard to believe either Flanagan or Halliday is worth keeping around as a backup full-back. Each of Wilson's three loan moves has been one division lower than the previous one, which doesn't bode well for his prospects.


    ROSS COUNTY
    Don Cowie, Richard Foster, Marcus Fraser, Tom Grivosti, Sean Kelly, Tom Kelly, Declan McManus, Callum Morris, Harry Paton, Lewis Spence, James Wallace, Keith Watson

    Like with Accies, I'm a little bit uncertain whether all the names on this list are correct. But unfortunately the club declined to respond to my email asking for information.

    I'd expect Cowie (already a player-coach) and possibly Foster to retire from playing. McManus is seeing out his deal on loan at Falkirk. The rest could all conceivably be offered new deals, but could equally be moved on either because they want to return to the central belt or because County will feel they need to look for upgrades. I'd imagine they would be most keen to keep Fraser, Grivosti, Paton and maybe Spence.


    ST JOHNSTONE
    Steven Anderson, Callum Booth, Ross Callachan, Liam Craig, Murray Davidson, Olly Hamilton, Max Johnstone, Chris Kane, David McMillan, Jordan Northcott, John Robertson, Danny Swanson, Drey Wright

    I think Tommy Wright might spontaneously combust if Booth, Kane and Wright aren't offered new contracts. There's plenty of veterans on this list, with Davidson probably more likely to be kept on than Craig and Swanson. Anderson, Callachan and McMillan are definitely done for, while the youngsters haven't really shown any sign that they can break into the first team so far.


    ST MIRREN
    Tony Andreu, Cameron Breadner, Cody Cooke, Oan Djorkaeff, Ryan Flynn, Scott Glover, Vlaclav Hladky, Gary MacKenzie, Nicholas McAllister, Stephen McGinn, Danny Mullen, Ross Wallace

    St. Mirren will likely hold off offering new deals until they're out the other end of their relegation battle. Hladky will surely be tempted away by one of his many admirers. It's a surprise Djorkaeff is still here as he trained with Queen of the South in January. Veterans Wallace (recently signed till the end of the season) and MacKenzie might well be allowed to leave, whilst Flynn's knee injury couldn't have come at a worse time.

    Club captain McGinn has had his own injury problems recently. Strikers Cooke and Mullen seem to have dropped down the pecking order recently, though Andreu remains a regular. Of the youngsters only Glover has started a first team game.


    and as a bonus...

    DUNDEE UNITED
    Rakish Bingham, Kieran Freeman, Chris Mochrie, Cammy Smith, Oswan Sow, Sam Wardrop, Paul Watson

    Given United are pretty much certain to be promoted, we may as well take a look at their situation. I'm surprised highly-rated kid Mochrie hasn't signed a long term contract yet. Freeman, who recently returned to the club from Southampton's youth setup, is trying to prove he's worth keeping. Are any of the other five worth keeping? I'm not sure. Watson has proved a decent squad option but he's not good enough for the top flight. Bingham is a stopgap short-term signing because Sow is injured. Smith and Wardrop are seeing out their United contracts on loan deals elsewhere.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  7. hislopsoffsideagain
    PREDICTED LEAGUE POSITION: TENTH

    LAST SEASON: 10th, 33pts

    NOTABLE INS: Blair Alston (St. Johnstone), Will Collar (Brighton & Hove Albion), Brian Easton (St. Johnstone), Markus Fjortoft (Southern United), Owain Fon Williams (Inverness Caledonian Thistle), Kyle Gourlay (Dundee), Johnny Hunt (Stevenage), Ciaran McKenna (Falkirk), David Moyo (St. Albans City), Korede Adedoyin (Everton, loan)

    NOTABLE OUTS: Ziggy Gordon (Central Coast Mariners), James Keatings (Inverness Caledonian Thistle), Gary Woods (Oldham Athletic), Tony Andreu (Coventry City, end of loan), David McMillan (St. Johnstone, end of loan), Dougie Imrie (retired), Tom Taiwo (retired), Matthew Kilgallon, Jacob Marsden, Alex Penny, Lennard Sowah, Delphin Tshiembe

    LAST SEASON'S BEST XI (Departed players crossed out): Woods, Gordon, Kilgallon, Gogic, McGowan, Martin, MacKinnon, Andreu, Imrie, Miller, Oakley



    This is the sixth straight season I've had to write a Hamilton Accies season preview. In the first four I predicted they'd come bottom, and last year I had them finishing eleventh. I wasn't alone in my thinking. And each time Accies have collectively given the finger to the likes of me by staying up.

    How they've done it is hard to say. Their points totals in recent years have been dreadful - 35,33 and 33 in the last three campaigns. They never seem to score enough goals nor keep enough out. They're the MC Escher of football teams. It's impossible and yet here they are.

    And over time my feelings towards them have moved from considerable annoyance at their unambitious and unpalatable style of play to increasing (albeit grudging) respect at the fact that whilst clubs like Dundee United, Dundee, Partick Thistle, Inverness and others languish outside the top flight, Hamilton have avoided that fate.

    The question now is whether things take a different direction with a new man in the hotseat. Well, I say 'new' but Brian Rice has been Head Coach since January. It was probably true that the only way was up at that point, but Rice guided Accies clear of relegation. He actually managed only four wins and four draws in sixteen games, so it tells you something about the state they were in that this was a marked improvement on the final days of Martin Canning.

    But despite the change of boss it's been a pretty typical Accies summer. Their budget remains a fraction of even the mid-table Premiership sides so the signings have been the usual motley crew of Premiership castoffs, Championship wannabes, kids released from English under 23 sides and the odd unknown from non-league.

    The hope is that Rice will do a superior job of moulding them together. As assistant boss at Falkirk, Hibs and Caley Thistle he was highly respected as a training ground coach. Mind you, the way some of the new boys have been talking you'd think he's the Scottish Guardiola. Certainly though it's reasonable to expect that Accies will be better organized than they were at any time in the Canning era.

    Do they have enough quality though?

    They haven't lost all that much, at least. Ziggy Gordon was a regular in defence but hadn't hit the heights expected of him and he is replaceable. Goalkeeper Gary Woods had quietly excelled but Rice might have found a gem in Owain Fon Williams, largely frozen out for two years at Caley Thistle because of his wages. The Welshman struggled when ICT were relegated before that but played that whole year with a back problem and is a far better keeper than many realize.

    In front of him it looks like it'll be a back three, though it may be hard to find a competent combination. Alex Gogic missed most of last season after a knee injury but if he's back to 100% he should be a capable performer; however he also looked like the best (or least-bad) option in defensive midfield in the League Cup games. 

    Brian Easton is also not long back from an extended layoff and seems more likely to be used on the left side of that three rather than as a left-back. Ciaran McKenna flashed some potential at Falkirk last season but is really raw after spending his formative years in the USA. Markus Fjortoft is a typical Hamilton 'take a flyer on a guy who won't cost us much if he isn't up to it' move. And Shaun Want has shown nothing to suggest he's going to hack it as a Premiership player in the short- or long-term.

    In theory, the standard at wing-back is a lot higher. Aaron McGowan certainly came onto a game in the second half of last season. Frustratingly Scott McMann still hasn't lived up to the billing he was given as a youngster by Alex Neil all those years ago. Now 23, he really needs to become consistent. The more experienced Johnny Hunt will not have moved up from Stevenage just to be a backup.

    In midfield it seems certain there will be a place for Darian MacKinnon, though the captain, 34 in October, does appear to be slowing down a little. The other two positions may be up for grabs. Will Collar, signed from Brighton, should fill the most defensive role though he's not been sighted so far. Blair Alston was let go by St. Johnstone because he influenced games only sporadically, so Rice needs to get the best out of him if Accies are to create chances. 

    But if Rice is willing to give youth a try he can call on Ross Cunningham, Lewis Smith, Reegan Mimnaugh and Ronan Hughes in this area. Cunningham was particularly impressive in July, scoring four League Cup goals; three were penalties but it is encouraging that the 21 year old took on such responsibility. Smith is more attack-minded and could be deployed in the number ten role if Rice opted for one up top in some games. There's also Scott Martin who was something of a marquee signing by Canning's standards last summer but who seems out of favour. 

    There is however a dearth of natural wingers in the squad which will leave Rice short of a plan B if things aren't going well. Steven Boyd, Mickel Miller and new signing David Moyo can all play wide if necessary but they would prefer to be through the middle. Miller was great in the first half of last season but is a rare case of a player regressing under Rice; however he was given a new deal in the summer so it seems reasonable to assume the boss has faith in him.

    Up front though he's likely to go with two of Marios Ogkmpoe, George Oakley and Steve Davies. Ogkmpoe is the battering ram, Davies is the best natural finisher but doesn't do enough to link play, and Oakley is reasonably strong, reasonably quick and okay in front of goal but doesn't really do anything especially well. If one was to break through this season, I'd pick Ogkmpoe - the Greek did well to come back from an ACL injury in the spring and has looked sharp in the League Cup. He looks like he has a point to prove and could reward Hamilton's faith in him.

    The target as always is survival but this might be the first time that the odds of that are in their favour. First, the coaching has improved. Second, there are other teams in the division who look unsettled and lost at the moment. Hamilton and their fans would probably prefer that they were written off again, but there's a chance that this could be a less stressful campaign than the last few.


    THE SQUAD (players born after 1 January 1998 in italics)
    Goalkeepers: Owain Fon Williams, Ryan Fulton, Kyle Gourlay
    Defenders: Brian Easton, Markus Fjortoft, Alex Gogic, Johnny Hunt, Aaron McGowan, Ciaran McKenna, Scott McMann, George Stanger, Shaun Want
    Midfielders: Blair Alston, Will Collar, Ross Cunningham, Ronan Hughes, Darian MacKinnon, Scot Martin, Reegan Mimnaugh, Lewis Smith
    Forwards: Korede Adedoyin, Steven Boyd, Steve Davies, Mickel Miller, David Moyo, George Oakley, Marios Ogkmpoe

    THE BEST XI?



    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  8. hislopsoffsideagain
    The last time Celtic lost three consecutive home matches, Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister, Kylie Minogue was at number one with 'Tears On My Pillow' (no, I've never heard of it either) and Rangers were on their way to Two In A Row.


    Admittedly in the subsequent thirty years there won't have been many times when Celtic played back-to-back-to-back games at Celtic Park against teams of the quality of Rangers, Milan and, um, Sparta Prague, but still.


    How has it come to this?


    Yes, Rangers have improved. We're yet to find out whether yet another post-New Year slump will derail their title push, but it would obviously be foolish for Celtic fans to pin their hopes on that. Steven Gerrard's side are playing with confidence and no little skill. It's worth remembering at this point that, for all the spending down Govan way, Rangers' budget is still way behind Celtic's. For them to be so superior at this point is quite startling...and the way they are going about it is also exposing Celtic's problems for all to see.


    The bottom line is that Rangers have a plan, and Gerrard's squad has been built with it in mind. In contrast, if Celtic's grand strategy for 2020-21 was all about the switch to three-at-the-back, it made no sense to this blogger. Playing three central defenders in the Premiership against teams who sit back and soaked up pressure just unnecessarily robs the team of an attacking or creative player...even more so given Lennon's insistence on deploying Scott Brown at the base of midfield as well.  In Mohamed Elyounoussi, James Forrest and Mikey Johnston they have three wide players who don't obviously fit into that system, though the injuries to the latter two have made this less of an issue than it might have been. Ditto the more natural number tens like Ryan Christie and Tom Rogic.


    The Shane Duffy factor has been thoroughly dissected elsewhere, but the bottom line is that this is not a player that fits what Celtic need in central defence - either in a back three or a back four - in the slightest. Duffy is not a bad player, but his weaknesses are woefully exposed and his qualities are rarely on show in this situation. It is a failure of recruitment. 


    And it isn't the first one. Celtic have signed three left-backs in fifteen months. Greg Taylor and Boli Bolingoli cost £3million each and whilst Kieran Tierney's shoes were always going to be impossible to fill the bottom line is neither player can hold a torch to Rangers' Borna Barisic. Nor were they especially well suited to playing as a wing-back; ironically, as soon as Lennon signed a player tailor-made for the left wing-back role - Diego Laxalt - he reverted back to a back four which currently makes Laxalt look very uncomfortable.


    Meanwhile, the list of players currently out on loan and with no future at the club includes Bolingoli, Vakoun Issouf Bayo, Jack Hendry and Maryan Shved. It's not clear who is leading transfer policy at Celtic, but it does seem that folk are not all on the same page.


    As for the coach himself, it is increasingly tempting to wonder whether Lennon's first spell at Celtic Park was really all that. After all, his three league titles came when the closest opposition were a Rangers side on the brink of liquidation, Motherwell and Motherwell respectively; to be frank Celtic would have won those leagues with you, or me, or even Ronny Deila in charge. In continental competition, take away Tony Watt's goal against Barcelona - bear in mind that Celtic, with 11% possession, rather rode their luck that day - and results were not impressive; they finished rock bottom of their Champions League group in 2013-14 after nearly losing in the qualifiers to Shakhtar Karagandy, while they missed out on both the Champions League and Europa League groups in 2010-11 and only got into the Europa League groups the following year after Sion were disqualified.


    His return in early 2019 as a stopgap made a fair bit of sense given Brendan Rodgers' sudden departure, but in truth the team's form for the rest of that season was hardly all that and they huffed and puffed their way past a pretty putrid Hearts side in the Scottish Cup Final. It was not a performance that justified offering Lennon the job permanently after the match, but it was the romantic option and perhaps the easy one too. It was probably cheaper also in terms of wages, but it could be argued that the European qualifying failures of this season and last have made appointing him very expensive indeed for the club.


    The fact is that since Rodgers left Celtic have largely coasted, as if they feel they are untouchable. In fact, 'stagnated' may be a more appropriate term. On the pitch, there is very little sign of tactical imagination. The formation may have changed recently but in the final third the strategy seems the same; to rely for moments of individual brilliance to unlock defences. It's worth noting that both they and Rangers have endured their star player and talismanic striker suffering a collapse in form this season. Rangers have barely missed a beat despite Alfredo Morelos' struggles; Celtic simply do not look the same without a potent Odsonne Edouard.


    Edouard isn't the only one out of sorts. After the Sparta game, Lennon didn't hold back. He accused the players of being 'lazy' of 'lack of application', 'lack of hunger' and suggested they weren't working hard enough in training and that there was a need for a 'culture change'. The obvious elephant in the room there is the question of who is responsible for working them in training. After all there is precious little evidence during matches that they have worked on anything particularly intricate tactically. Heck, back in August Kieran Devlin at The Athletic reported that a number of players employed their own fitness coaches because they were unsatisfied at what the club was offering.


    There's still time to turn this around - two-thirds of the season in fact. And the Celtic squad has more than enough quality to do so. But it is fair to say we have reached the point where you'd be surprised if Neil Lennon was still in charge by the end of the season. And it's also fair to note that if you're going to change manager, an international break - like the one coming up next week - would seem like the least painful time to do it. Do they take the plunge and sack a manager for the first time since Tony Mowbray? The fate of their Ten In A Row dream may well depend on what decision they make.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  9. hislopsoffsideagain
    To be honest, I was ready to just pack it in.
    When Luka Jovic's header flew into the net, it felt like one heartbreak, one Glorious Failure too many. I just could not do it anymore.
    As Jovic celebrated, my mind was already racing ahead. The heads would be gone. We'd get creamed in extra time. If somehow we didn't, we'd screw up the penalties. I just couldn't be having with the agony of supporting Scotland any more. My wife is Northern Irish - perhaps I could just bring up my boys to support them instead, and they might get the joy of qualifying for something occasionally? Heck, I've got a mate from Gibraltar - they might lose all the time but I bet they don't care about it.
    You'd like to think that had we lost I would have got over the misery and been ready to do it all again for the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. Thankfully, we'll never know...


    For the first 89 minutes in Belgrade Scotland produced their best team performance in over a decade. It was clear from the early stages that Steve Clarke had got his tactics spot on and from front to back the starting eleven were tremendous. 
    At one end of the pitch Lyndon Dykes, the Australian who was playing for Queen Of The South eighteen months ago and who looks more like one of the 'pre-cogs' from Minority Report than a centre forward, gave a marvellous throwback performance of shoulder barges, deft flick-ons and runs into the channels that will still have the Serb defenders looking over their shoulders this morning.
    At the other end a back three consisting of Kieran Tierney (a natural left-back), Declan Gallagher (of Motherwell) and Scott McTominay (a natural midfielder) looked every bit the equal of the great Boyd-Calderwood-Hendry trinity of the mid-nineties. Any pre-match doubts I had about Gallagher's merits have well and truly evaporated; it was nice of him to let Aleksandar Mitrovic out of his pocket for long enough to take a penalty in the shootout.
    Between defence and attack there was Callum McGregor, so often underwhelming at international level but here playing more like the Celtic version from the last few years than the one of the last few months, demanding the ball at every opportunity and directing play,. Ahead of him was the whirling dervish that is John McGinn, covering every blade of grass, bouncing off opponents with that magnificent arse of his.
    And the rest were great too. At half-time some moron suggested Scotland would benefit more from having a natural striker on the pitch than Ryan Christie.





    The fact we played so well - so much better than the Serbs - made it worse. It's glorious failure if you're the plucky underdogs that have been unluckily thwarted, not when you're the better team by miles. 
    Even in despair I couldn't bring myself to turn off the TV. Loyalty? Masochism? A tiny grain of hope? Make up your own mind as to the reason. The extra time purgatory was only exacerbated by Clarke's substitutions which were made with the intention of protecting our lead and beefing us up on defending set pieces (that went well...) but left the team dreadfully unbalanced and unthreatening. Oli McBurnie, who had replaced the spent Dykes, was utterly awful, the ball bouncing off him repeatedly as if his whole body was just one big shin. Another sub, Callum Paterson, started up front and ended up going out to the right flank, which suddenly looked more vulnerable than when only Stephen O'Donnell had been protecting it.
    Yet with Scotland against the ropes with wobbly knees and eyes out of focus, Serbia failed to land the knockout blow. Only once was David Marshall seriously threatened, the veteran keeper pulling off a wonderful fingertip save from Nemanja Gudelj. At the interval in extra-time not only captain Andy Robertson but also McGregor, Marshall and Ryan Jack could be seen trying to lift their comrades. Scotland had bent, but they were not broken.
    But penalties would surely be our undoing, right? In Christie, McGinn and Dykes we had substituted three potential takers. For every Scotland player who stepped forward and grabbed the ball, I convinced myself it was their destiny to miss. Leigh Griffiths was brought on as a sub just to take a penalty, which seemed to make him a hostage to fortune. McGregor's performance, his best ever in a Scotland shirt, seemed too good to be true. McTominay was the man who should have been marking Jovic for the goal and who seemed to be setting himself up to be the goat of the game. McBurnie, so often a disappointment, had the pressure of knowing that if he missed he would be derided forever. And was it not too much to ask for Kenny McLean, hero against Israel, to reprise his role of iceman once more?
    Yet they all held firm. Griffiths' penalty was the diciest of the lot but still went in off the goalkeeper's hand. McGregor dispatched his expertly. McTominay smashed it into the bottom corner like a man who had completely forgotten his role in the equalizer. McBurnie sent the goalkeeper the wrong way. McLean surely deserves a promotion from Mayor of Norwich to Duke of Edinburgh.
    And then there was Marshall. Whenever he is mentioned I still mentally picture the 19 year old teenager who in 2004 single-handedly repelled Barcelona at the Camp Nou for Celtic. His subsequent career, though very decent, has never hit such heights again. Until now, sixteen years on. I never thought for a second that Aleksandar Mitrovic, an accomplished penalty taker, would miss. And yet he was the one who cracked. It wasn't a dreadful penalty but Marshall moved as if he had springs on his feet to make a terrific save to his left.
    Of course, then there was that awful split-second where Marshall had to look to the referee, to confirm VAR wouldn't spoil this golden moment. But as the goalie said afterward, what's another four or five seconds when you've had to wait 22 years?


    While all that was happening, I had somehow gone from pacing the living room anxiously to being on my knees, fists clenched, arms in the air, biting my lip partly to stop me from screaming out and waking my wife and small children and partly to stop me from crying. I was 14 the last time we qualified for something. It has been a hell of a long time. I am going to savour this all the way until June. Erect a statue of Steve Clarke, build another one of David Marshall, give Andy Robertson a knighthood. As far as I'm concerned, it's the least they deserve.
    Something changed last night. You could already feel it in the build up that this country, from the younger generation who have never seen us at a tournament and think of the national team as one big joke, to the older, increasingly weary, cynical and apathetic Tartan Army veterans, were just about ready to let the national team back into their hearts. Man, we had to suffer for it. But this extraordinary, terrible, beautiful suffering has always been what supporting Scotland is about. Right now those 22 years all seem worth it. At last, Scotland are glorious without the failure.
    We are back.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  10. hislopsoffsideagain
    Four years ago Falkirk were preparing for a Scottish Cup Final against Inverness Caledonian Thistle.
      Three years ago they came mightily close to promotion to the Premiership, losing the playoff final to Kilmarnock despite a first leg lead.   Two years ago they came second in the Championship and got another pop at the playoffs.   Today, they are preparing for life in League One.   There have been no financial problems, no administrations, no unusual or unforeseen mitigating circumstances. Falkirk's relegation to the third tier is a culmination of two years of mistake after mistake at every level.

    Rangers' struggle up from League Two, laced with either farce or fiasco at almost every turn, became colloquially known as 'The Banter Years'. Falkirk have just had one of their own. And as a result a club with bigger home crowds than St. Johnstone and a higher turnover than Hamilton Accies are now facing away days at Peterhead and Stranraer next season.

    For fans of smaller clubs, it's been a great source of tedium and frustration to hear journalists bemoan the absence of 'big' teams from the Premiership - as if average attendance should somehow be taken into account when deciding promotion and relegation. With Hearts, Rangers and Hibernian having extricated themselves from the Championship, Dundee United are the biggest fish left in this pond. Falkirk, who last played in the top flight in 2010, are not in the same financial league as these clubs. However, given that the likes of Hamilton Accies and Livingston are currently amongst the elite and that in the last nine seasons Inverness, Ross County, Partick Thistle and other 'diddy clubs' have had long spells in the Premiership, there isn't a bigger side that has been stuck in the lower divisions for as long.

    Falkirk's relegation to the then-First Division in 2010 led to a big emphasis on bringing through youth. First Steven Pressley and then Gary Holt were unable to get them promoted - they finished third in the table four consecutive times - but they did develop an impressive group of academy graduates: Blair Alston, Botti Biabi, Ryan Blair, Jay Fulton, Tony Gallacher, Stephen Kingsley, Conor McGrandles, Stewart Murdoch, Craig Sibbald and Murray Wallace all went on to leave for bigger and better things and often for a decent transfer fee (Blair, Fulton, Gallacher, Kingsley and Wallace for six figure sums, McGrandles for a reported £1m). Luke Leahy, Peter Grant and Will Vaulks were youngsters plucked out of nowhere and developed into very decent players.

    Holt left in the summer of 2014 to join Norwich City's coaching team. The appointment of the much older Houston seemed on the face of it to be a change of direction but he continued the work of his predecessors. Getting to another cup final was a considerable achievement. So too was beating Hibs in the playoffs the next season (before the defeat to Killie) and finishing ahead of Dundee United in the league the year after.    It all started going downhill after that, though pinpointing why is not easy. It's not as if there was huge upheaval in the playing squad in the 2017 summer transfer window. Perhaps, as sometimes happens, things just got a bit stale. Houston and his players seemed to have picked up where they left off with four wins out of four in their League Cup group, including an away win over newly relegated Inverness Caley Thistle.   Yet they managed just three points from their opening seven league games and on 26 September Houston was dismissed. The board, afraid of being cut adrift from the promotion race so early in the campaign acted swiftly. It turned out that was the least of their worries.  
    Houston was replaced by Paul Hartley, who had won the Championship with Dundee back in 2014. In the meantime the Bairns had picked up their first league win of the season under caretaker management. They would not win again until 30 December. Bottom spot was never a realistic possibility - Brechin City's record-setting incompetence made sure of that - but a relegation playoff spot was a real worry. Thankfully things clicked in the new year. Falkirk picked up a very respectable 33 points in the second half of the season, compared to 14 points from their first 18 games. That was still only good enough for eighth (it would have been enough for fifth this season!) but it offered encouragement to the board that Hartley was on the right track.
      That'll be why they let him sign sixteen players last summer.


    The overhaul was carried out with the assistance of Richard Mitchell, formerly head of recruitment at Ross County, who was brought in to scout players primarily from England's lower leagues and find some cheap rough diamonds to polish. Ideally the youth academy would have produced some too...but in December 2017 the club closed it with virtually no prior warning. Despite the impressive output of previous years, it was claimed that it cost too much and that, unless players were sold for significant money each season, it was too much of a risk. The club also stated that the money could be used to concentrate on the first team.

    Hence Hartley's summer shopping spree. Of those sixteen players signed, only four remained after January 2019 and just two - Paul Paton and Deimantas Petravicius - were first team regulars. If there was a strategy to the signings it remains unclear. On the face of it, it seems no more clever than throwing mud at a wall and hoping some of it stuck.

    Hartley's tenure was over by the end of August. By that point Falkirk had lost at home to Montrose in the League Cup, toiled to a narrow win against Rangers Colts in the Challenge Cup and lost their first three games of the league season in increasingly hapless fashion. The last of those was a 3-0 drubbing at home to Queen of the South. Stephen Dobbie scored a hat-trick for the visitors, and might have had double that. The shot count after 90 minutes was an extraordinary 27-3 in favour of the Doonhamers. It was the sort of performance and result that gets managers sacked on its own...and so it was for Hartley.

    To their credit, the powers that be identified their candidate to replace him soon enough. The trouble was that Ray McKinnon had taken the Morton job a few months earlier. That didn't put the club, or McKinnon himself, off though - to the fury of his current employers he walked out to take over at the Falkirk Stadium. Falkirk would be fined £40,000 by the SPFL as a result, as well as having to pay compensation to Morton. The history books will not show that it was worth it.


    In mid-September a rather bullish Q&A with the chairman was published on the club website. "We have been in the Championships too long. Playoffs and finishing second are not good enough", it was stated. As for the current campaign, "the playoffs remain our aspiration".

    At the time, Falkirk were bottom and were still to score a point. A few days earlier, in McKinnon's second game in charge, they had blown a 2-0 half time lead at Ayr United and lost 3-2, the winning goal coming when in a goalmouth scramble a clearance hit prostrate keeper Leo Fasan on the back and ricocheted into the net. Unfortunately, there was plenty of farce still to come.

    By the end of September they did get off the mark with a win at Alloa, but whilst there were occasional signs of life - a combative draw with Ross County and a smash-and-grab win at Dunfermline - by the end of November they were still bottom. The Scottish Cup offered a distraction, but not a welcome one, as they were humiliated by local neighbours Stenhousemuir 4-2 in a stark example of how the players were neither good enough nor motivated enough. Just when it seemed things couldn't get any worse, striker Dennon Lewis reported that he was racially abused during the match by his own fans.

    It won't have helped matters that McKinnon was never shy about the need to bring in new faces; the knowledge that most of the squad were unwanted would not have done morale much good. And so in January, with the club still bottom of the league, in came another twelve players. Most of the summer duds were punted, with some having been paid to go away even before then. One shudders to think how much it has cost the club to 'mutually consent' so many.

    But the influx of new talent seemed to have done the trick. An eight match unbeaten run between January and March yielded sixteen precious points. Not only were they out of the bottom two, but they were only eight points off fourth with nine games left. Maybe September's predictions weren't so ridiculous after all?

    Nah. They would win only twice more.


    The unbeaten run came to an end at Ross County, but was followed up with three draws. The second of those, up in Inverness, was a 0-0 bore-draw where McKinnon, who had hardly been adventurous tactically since his arrival, sent his team out to frustrate rather than attack. Their only shot on target came in injury time. The plan was clearly to grind out results.

    Next was a Tuesday night trip to Dumfries. With the match goalless after 90 minutes, Falkirk won a stoppage time penalty. Davis Keillor-Dunn converted it and raced towards the away support, sparking a pitch invasion which took a few minutes to clear. Keillor-Dunn was shown a second yellow card and dismissed. There was sufficient time added on that Queen of the South got a soft penalty of their own and nicked a draw, robbing the Bairns of two precious points. Queen of the South would finish the season ninth, above Falkirk on goal difference.

    Then they went and lost at home to Alloa, despite dominating the second half with the score at 1-1. Alloa were winning games. So were Partick Thistle. By the time Falkirk starting doing so it was too late. Victory over Championship winners Ross County on final day wasn't enough. And so they'll drop into the third tier for the first time in 39 years.


    It is easy to see how this happened. The board made poor managerial appointments in times of crisis. Those managers in turn recruited appallingly, looking for quick fixes to their crises. It seems like the panic button was pressed in the autumn of 2017 and the finger was never lifted.

    And yet it would not be hard to see the Dunfermlines, the Partick Thistles, the Invernesses of Scottish football suffering similar fates. Being in a ten team league where ambitions are high and patience is low and money is tight means there is rarely if ever time for a blueprint for the future to be drawn up, let alone seen through. It's quite possible Falkirk will not be the last full-time club to meet this fate.

    As for their fans, there is some solace to be found a little further along the M9. Livingston were relegated to League One in 2016. Two years later they completed back-to-back promotions, and this year they are a comfortable ninth in the Premiership. Maybe the only way is up?

      Lawrie Spence has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007.  He has a life outside this blog.  Honestly.  
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  11. hislopsoffsideagain
    A treble is a pretty impressive feat. A treble-treble is cause for a massive blowout.


    One wonders though whether Celtic's decision to announce their intention to keep Neil Lennon as manager, just minutes after the Scottish Cup Final finished, will have enhanced the celebrations or tempered them?
    Back in mid-February, when Brendan Rodgers suddenly legged it for Leicester, bringing Lennon in as 'a safe pair of hands' made sense. With the club eight points clear in the league with just eleven games to go, he knew the club well and could be relied on not to do anything daft with the team...though it could be argued even I (and possibly even Ronny Deila) could have guided them over the line.
    It was Lennon who got them there though, winning the title by nine points and adding the Scottish Cup to the bargain. His record since returning: fourteen matches, ten wins, three draws and just a single defeat. That certainly seems to justify keeping him in the dugout.
    And yet.
    That nine point gap to second place is the smallest in the Eight-In-A-Row era. The gap between Celtic and the rest is already narrowing, and whilst some of that is because Rangers are finally beginning to justify some of the huge outlay on their squad it is also because Celtic are not the force they were during the first 18 months of the Rodgers regime - though the December defeat at Ibrox seemed to have shaken both the manager and the players out of a bit of a slump.
    But results have been satisfactory Celtic simply haven't passed the eye test in the last three months. The Scottish Cup Final was a microcosm of his second tenure. They struggled to break down an organized, motivated opponent. Flair players were starved of the ball and unable to find pockets of space in the way they did in Rodgers' day. Attacks became predictable - either through Jonny Hayes on the left or hopeful high crosses from deep. And eventually after a scare they pulled through only via a very late winner.
    Too often the starting eleven have looked ill-equipped for any surprises sprung by the opposition...or even for the opposition full stop; there was nothing particularly out of the ordinary about Hearts' shape or strategy and yet seemingly little thought had been put into counteracting it.

    These ponderous starts are now a habit. In fourteen matches they have scored only six times in the first half. Aberdeen, Livingston and Hibernian all managed to keep them out for ninety minutes - the former two at Parkhead, where they did manage to scrape past Kilmarnock 1-0. Only in the last 10 minutes did they find winners against Dundee, Rangers and Hearts (twice).
    The two derbies provide the most concerning evidence for the Celtic support. At Celtic Park the home side toiled against ten men despite going a goal up; a Rodgers side would have gone for the jugular but instead they looked cagey and allowed Rangers back into the match. When James Forrest struck the winner with four minutes left you would not have confidently said it was with the run of play.
    Far worse was the post-split return game. In ordinary circumstances, with the title won, one could forgive some casualness but against Rangers at Ibrox? Lennon himself criticized his players' performances and attitude. Cynics pointed out whose job it was to motivate them.
    In spite of this the club have decided to keep him. The most obvious reason is that they couldn't find an alternative they were happy with. It could be argued that the chances of finding someone of Rodgers' calibre were minimal (with hindsight, the fact they had a coach of his reputation and ability for two and a half years is astounding) and memories of Deila, a high-risk, unproven candidate who proved to be more John Barnes than Jose Mourinho, are still too fresh.
    There's also less than seven weeks until the Champions League qualifiers start, and so not much time for a new man to get his ideas across. And maybe a summer of clever recruitment and of retuning the players to the way he wants them to play will get Celtic firing on all cylinders again. After all, Lennon proved in his first spell at the club that he can set up a team - Barcelona, anyone?
    But then there's his recent work. He has displayed little nous on the touchline this time around. His departure from Hibernian wasn't down to results on the park but he left them eighth in the league with just two wins out of fourteen. And it seems incredible that with three months to scour the globe, the board couldn't come up with a better option than the in-house candidate - or at least one whose football philosophy is more akin to the one left behind by Rodgers.
    And 2019-20 is likely to be a pivotal season for Celtic. Last season they were reminded what it means to miss out on Champions League riches - a £20million hole that has to be filled through player sales and difficulty recruiting quality players as well as retaining them. Each time they miss out, their financial advantage over domestic opposition - particularly to Rangers - decreases.
    And most gallingly, they are so close to the mythical Ten In A Row that they can almost taste the despair of Rangers fans. It seemed a sure thing as long as Rodgers was at the helm. Now, there is cause for others to believe they can stop it...and for Celtic to start doubting they can pull it off.

    Lawrie Spence has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007.  He has a life outside this blog.  Honestly.
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  12. hislopsoffsideagain
    Right, the Neil Lennon era is finally over. The lame duck of the last several months has quacked its last. It would seem a bit cruel for someone to recount how it came to this, to rub salt into the wound...

    So now the question is: where do Celtic go from here?


    They are a distant second to Rangers, eighteen points adrift. They have no manager, no Director of Football and the new Chief Executive does not start until the summer. They have several key players likely to leave at the end of the season, and so much deadwood in the squad that you could build an ark out of it (the mediocre left-backs went in two-by-two, hurrah, hurrah...). Whilst they will be in the Champions League qualifiers, the path to the group stage potentially includes matches against French, Portuguese or Russian opponents. And don't forget Covid and its effect on finances; the club lost £6m between June and December alone.


    But as Einstein once said, "in the midst of every crisis lies great opportunity". Can Celtic turn this into a moment where they reinvent themselves and drag themselves back towards not only the domestic title but also European success? Basically, is this going to be a John Barnes/Kenny Dalglish disaster, or a Martin O'Neill miracle?


    Here's what needs to be done. It's a hell of a job. In short (much to the chagrin of the supporters), they need to copy what their greatest rivals have done in the last year or two...


    THE NEW MANAGER
    I prepare to be proved wrong - I never expected Brendan Rodgers to come to Scotland - but it could be very difficult for the club to attract a name with high pedigree. One issue is that Brexit means that managers from outside the UK will need work permits, which could prove quite tricky and prevent the club snaring the 21st century equivalent of Wim Jansen. Of foreign coaches mentioned in dispatches, Rafa Benitez is surely unrealistic, whilst Roberto Martinez's exploits with Belgium would surely leave him fancying he could do better. Eddie Howe makes more sense but there may be jobs closer to home (Crystal Palace? Newcastle?) that could come up in the near future. In contrast, Steve Clarke may see this as a step up but he surely wouldn't leave Scotland until they were knocked out of the Euros and would therefore only have a few weeks in the job before the new season.


    In short, this search could be long and laborious. One hopes that the club, already having realized Lennon was a busted flush, have already started it.


    RECRUITMENT
    It's plain for all to see that standards have dropped dramatically since Lennon replaced Brendan Rodgers. There have been unkind (and probably accurate) suggestions that signing policy was being run as much by Peter Lawwell as by the coaching staff. Regardless, Celtic do not have a philosophy in place for how the first team is going to play and how to build the squad around that. Lennon did insist last summer on moving to a 3-5-2 and recruiting with a view to that, but those tactics made little sense given the players he had available - shoehorning James Forrest into a wing-back role and leaving little room for Mo Elyounoussi, Tom Rogic and Ryan Christie - and the quality of opposition; three centre-backs and a defensive midfielder against Hamilton Accies?


    Meanwhile the youth academy continues to offer only crumbs. Mikey Johnston is perenially injured, while the jury is out on whether Stephen Welsh can be the next Stephen McManus or the next Stephen Crainey. Kids who were hyped up a few years ago such as Karamoko Dembele, Armstrong Oko-flex and Cameron Harper are set to leave having failed to make the grade, with poor development and a lack of a realistic pathway to the first team among the reasons for this.


    Celtic seem to have been in the market for a Director Of Football for sometime now, and finding one who will mesh well with the new manager/head coach is critical. Perhaps the best strategy would be to appoint the DoF first? Bouncing around from one strategy to another is not an efficient or cost-effective strategy in modern football and doing so (Lennon to Deila to Rodgers to Lennon) is one of the reasons they have ended up in this mess. Celtic can aspire to get back in the Champions League in the next year or two, but the process of turning them into a club that can get there on a regular basis again will take much, much longer.


    THE SQUAD
    It's probably best to look at this by position group, but damn it's going to be a big job for the new boss to sort this out.


    GOALKEEPER
    This mainly depends on whether Vasilis Barkas is salvageable. It's safe to say that for £4.5m Celtic expected a rather safer pair of hands. Scott Bain is an acceptable backup but nothing more, whilst Conor Hazard went from cup final starter to persona non grata in the space of a few weeks; it's not even clear whether he has signed a new contract or not. Barkas wouldn't be the first goalie who has a difficult first season and makes a huge leap in his second, but if not then Celtic will be back in the goalie market again.


    DEFENCE
    Kristoffer Ajer will probably leave as he only has one year left on his contract; his stagnation under Lennon may well cost the club several million pounds. Shane Duffy and Diego Laxalt have been loan duds; Jonjoe Kenny is a far better player but convincing the right-back to make his move from Everton permanent may not be easy. Anthony Ralston is under contract for another year but clearly has no future here. And neither do Boli Bolingoli, Jack Hendry or Lee O'Connor, who are all out on loan currently.


    So that leaves Christopher Jullien, Greg Taylor and Stephen Welsh. And Jullien may not even be fit for the start of next season. Eek. I suppose you could also count Nir Bitton as a defender, though as far as I can see Lennon was the only person who did.


    MIDFIELD
    Scott Brown will be thirty-six in June and it's clearly time to put him out to pasture/melt him down for glue (delete as applicable depending on how you feel about him). Tom Rogic is likely to take up an offer from an Asian club, and it's hard to see Mo Elyounoussi returning for a third season on loan or Olivier Ntcham coming back from his temporary move to Marseille. The good news is that Ismaila Soro, Callum McGregor and David Turnbull can probably provide a pretty balanced central midfield, but there's a real need for depth here. Scott Robertson is that rarest of things - an Academy product who the club have high hopes for. A new manager might light a fire under youngster Ewan Henderson too?


    ATTACK
    I think its safe to assume Odsonne Edouard will be offski with only a year to go on his current deal, and the smart money is on Ryan Christie looking for a new challenge as well. Celtic will not be short of numbers up front, but they might be short on quality. There's Albian Ajeti, who has scored a few goals but who really should have made more of an impact given his £5m transfer fee; Patryk Klimala, a £3.5m dud; the erratic Leigh Griffiths; and the forgotten Vakoun Bayo. Out wide there's another failure in Marian Shved (whose arrival actually predates Lennon), plus Mikey 'Mr Glass' Johnston and James Forrest, who is close to a return from a long injury layoff.


    There will presumably be cash to spend, especially if there are outgoings; Edouard in particular should fetch a huge fee. But whoever takes this job has a heck of a job on their hands. And unlike Brendan Rodgers a few years ago, he has a proper opponent on the other side of Glasgow who could make life very, very difficult for them.


    Celtic simply cannot afford to get this wrong.




    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  13. hislopsoffsideagain
    The addition of a relegation playoff has changed the dynamic of Scotland's fourth tier dramatically. No longer can a club coast along, safe in the knowledge that being the SPFL's bottom club is the worst that can happen. As the hapless Berwick Rangers found to their cost, there are well-funded, hungry teams looking to get out of the regional leagues. Stagnate at your peril.


    At the other end, last season was ultimately one for the 'haves' - those who could afford impressive part-time wages to players who probably should be playing for one of the smaller full-time teams. It was Peterhead and Clyde who got promoted in the end. It'll be interesting to see if 2019-20 is a season for a club that are well-organized (think Montrose in 2017-18) or for one that splashes a bit of cash. Let's look at the ten clubs...

    ALBION ROVERS Coatbridge's finest looked doomed for the drop until the Spring but came to life in the run-in. Kevin Harper has retained as many of the players that saved them as he could and the aim this season is to get back towards mid-table. It might be a long way to go though, given they finished 16 points adrift of eighth last time out.


    ANNAN ATHLETIC Annan arguably punched above their weight by getting into the promotion playoffs last season. It'll be much harder to do so this time around as manager Peter Murphy has lost the majority of his first XI to League One and Two clubs that can offer more money. He needs to find some gems amongst the new signings he has made if they are to avoid sliding down the table.

    BRECHIN CITY
    After back-to-back relegations, Barry Smith has gutted the squad. There are certainly newcomers who arguably belong at a higher level, such as Chris McLaughlin, Luke Watt and Ross McCord, but the question is whether Smith can gel them together quickly enough. Anything other than a promotion challenge would be a disappointment.

    COVE RANGERS
    How quickly will the newcomers find their feet? They've essentially kept together the squad that won the Highland League and the reinforcements they have made, especially ex-Killie defender Daniel Higgins, are more than good enough for this level. They certainly won't fear anyone, and shouldn't worry about the drop. Could they even push for back-to-back promotions?


    COWDENBEATH After consecutive relegation playoff escapes the Blue Brazil consolidated somewhat under Gary Bollan, a boss who knows what it takes at this level even if it isn't always aesthetically pleasing. They've lost their veteran spine of David McGurn, Jason Talbot and Mark Fotheringham and star player Gary Fraser though.

    EDINBURGH CITY The citizens faded badly at the end of last season after challenging for the title for months. They've done well to attract a number of talents by offering decent wages for part-timers. Striker Blair Henderson needs to prove last season's goal glut wasn't a one-off. On paper they have a squad that can win the league, as long as they don't have another attack of the wobbles.

    ELGIN CITY
    Their situation looks a lot rosier now Shane Sutherland has returned for a third spell - their form fell off a cliff after he left in January. Their summer business looks decent but they'll need to play the loan market well again if they are to get back into the top half...or even to avoid getting dragged into a relegation battle.


    QUEEN'S PARK
    The great amateurs have realized that in the current era luring decent players for expenses only is becoming too hard - especially when in a year's time they'll no longer be able to offer the lure of playing at the national stadium. For now though, it's a team of decent Junior League players and young cast-offs. Will it be sufficient to get by?

    STENHOUSEMUIR In Mark McGuigan, Stenny can boast a striker who will score for fun in League Two - which makes a massive difference at this level. There has been a big squad turnover following relegation - part of which is down to Colin McMenamin wanting to shape the squad to his taste - but moulding them together may take a while.


    STIRLING ALBION
    The Binos improved massively after Kevin Rutkiewicz took over midseason and will fancy they can push on this time around. This is another club who have chopped and changed significantly over the summer but crucially there's plenty of players here who know what League Two is about. A decent loan signing or two could push them over the top.


    And here's how I predict it'll go...

    1. EDINBURGH CITY

    2. STENHOUSEMUIR
    3. STIRLING ALBION
    4. BRECHIN CITY

    5. COVE RANGERS
    6. ELGIN CITY
    7. COWDENBEATH
    8. ANNAN ATHLETIC
    9. ALBION ROVERS

    10. QUEEN'S PARK


    As ever, I expect time will prove that I don't know what I'm talking about!


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  14. hislopsoffsideagain
    It's no secret that the Covid pandemic has hit football clubs hard. With fans unable to attend games, income is down and chairmen are having to be very frugal indeed.


    Except at Queen's Park.


    Having decided that they could no longer continue as amateurs, they have decided that, if they're going to have to pay players, then they're going to pay them. So the squad is filled with folk who were playing full-time last season, some of whom - Bob McHugh and Lee Kilday, for example - were regulars in the Championship. Most remarkably they've signed Simon Murray, the former Dundee United and Hibs forward who returns from two years in South Africa. Anything other than the title for the Spiders and manager Ray McKinnon would be a catastrophe.


    Their closest rivals are most likely to be forever-bridesmaids Edinburgh City, who were promotion challengers in each of the last two seasons and have kept together a squad that includes prolific striker Blair Henderson, fellow attackers Danny Handling and Alex Harris and seasoned defender Conrad Balatoni. Wideman Danny Jardine looks like a good signing from Stirling too. Expect them to be up there but they may yet again lose out to a side with even more megabucks than they do (Cove last year, Peterhead the year before).


    After that duo, it's hard to say who might be the third-best side in this division; however one would assume that as the side who have dropped down from League One, Stranraer will have aspirations of at least making the promotion playoffs. They stood behind boss Stevie Farrell despite relegation and shouldn't be short of goals with Joao Victoria and veteran Darryl Duffy up top and Andy Stirling providing ammunition. Certainly they should not emulate previous relegated clubs such as Cowdenbeath, Albion Rovers and Brechin by slumping straight to the bottom end of this tier too.


    Elgin City were third in the table when the action was halted in the Spring, and their manager Gavin Price has concentrated on keeping together as much of that squad as possible. But they lost star striker Shane Sutherland and winger Rabin Omar to Championship sides and have been remarkably quiet on the signings front so far. It will be hard for them to emulate last season's success, even though Conor O'Keefe, Kane Hester and Smart Osadolor provide plenty of quality.


    Cowdenbeath, who were fourth when play stopped, have also chosen to mostly stick rather than twist, but will miss the departed Jordan Allan and Archie Thomas. Like any Gary Bollan side they will be tough to break down - not least with the legendary Craig Mango Barr in the backline - but goals may prove tough to come by unless loan striker Olly Hamilton proves an astute signing.


    Amongst those with genuine promotion playoff aspirations are Stirling Albion, who stood by manager Kevin Rutkiewicz after a poor start to last season and whose 2020 form was pretty decent. They've backed their boss well with striker Andy Ryan joining from Dunfermline and midfielder Jack Leitch from Peterhead. Certainly the club will be expecting an improvement on last season's sixth spot.


    Stenhousemuir, who had a rough first half of 2019/20 but seemed to have finally turned the corner just before lockdown, look intriguing. Manager Davie Irons has been well backed and has essentially revamped the squad since his arrival early last season. Defender Creag Little and midfielder Callum Tapping look the pick of the bunch that have pitched up this summer, joining a squad that contains former Falkirk and Swansea City prospects Ryan Blair and Botti Biabi and seasoned strikers Mark McGuigan and Greig Spence.


    It seems like every season Annan Athletic lose most of their best players to other clubs, yet Peter Murphy still finds a way of putting out a competitive team. Can he do the same this year? Getting forward Aidan Smith back after a year away at Peterhead will give them a boost, while Jack Purdue and Aaron Splaine could improve their midfield. But it could be tough to keep those standards up.


    There was also considerable turnover at Albion Rovers, including in the dugout where Brian Reid has replaced Kevin Harper. Reid has a young squad aside from Paul Cairney, who has come out of retirement, and relying on youths such as Finn Ecrepont and Scott Glover at the back feels like a high-risk, high-reward strategy. Midfielder Callum Wilson was highly-rated a few years ago at Partick and has the chance to jumpstart his career.


    And lastly, Brechin City got to avoid an inevitable relegation playoff after the last campaign ended early. Can they avoid such a fate this time around? Two heavy League Cup beatings - albeit to top flight opponents - suggest that manager Mark Wilson still has his work cut out, even though new signings such as Rory Currie, Michael Paton and Connor Coupe should do very well at this level. At the time of writing Wilson has won 3 out of 26 matches in charge of Brechin and unless something changes there those iconic hedges may drop out of the SPFL.


    So my (inevitably wrong) prediction for how the season will finish:
    1. QUEEN'S PARK


    2. EDINBURGH CITY
    3. STENHOUSEMUIR
    4. STRANRAER


    5. STIRLING ALBION
    6. ELGIN CITY
    7. COWDENBEATH
    8. ALBION ROVERS

    9. ANNAN ATHLETIC


    10. BRECHIN CITY


    Feel free to bookmark this to point out my mistakes come May...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  15. hislopsoffsideagain
    We won
    This is the most important thing to take away. Realists would acknowledge that Steve Clarke has had barely any time at all to get the hang of this international management malarkey and has been denied the luxury of training camps and friendlies to get his ideas across before competitive action; therefore a lack of cohesion was inevitable.

    You don't find many realists in football crowds though, as the half-time jeers indicated. The Tartan Army's patience has long been exhausted and just because Clarke was a popular choice didn't mean that they would tolerate toiling against a country ranked 89th in the world by FIFA. The victory may not have been convincing but it's the same number of points as we'd have got by thumping them. And it largely shields Clarke and a squad low on morale and belief from further pressure and criticism. With the trip to Brussels on Tuesday something of a free hit - nobody expects a positive result there - the focus can now move onto the next round of matches in September and, realistically, building a team that can win the Nations League playoffs and qualify for Euro 2020 that way.


    A decent striker would make the world of difference
    Having a world-class striker that opponents need to plan for can make such a difference - just look at Poland (Robert Lewandowski) or Wales (Gareth Bale). Scotland simply don't have that; here they also missed Steven Fletcher, Leigh Griffiths and Oli McBurnie who all might have fancied themselves as the starting centre-forward had they been fit. The obvious logic to picking Eamonn Brophy was that Clarke likes his attackers to defend from the front and as a Kilmarnock player Brophy could do that job without a second thought. And he did it fine.

    The problem was that 'the wolf' offered no bite. Apologists will say he was starved of service but in truth Brophy struggled to get even half a yard of space on his markers in open play and when he did so he was generally offside. James Forrest and, in the second half, Ryan Fraser got into plenty of dangerous positions but Brophy was never in a position to feed off them. He was, sadly, out of his depth.

    Whilst he was up against tired legs, Oli Burke looked so much brighter, linking up play with intelligent headers and stretching the game with his pace. Even before his goal he looked like someone had hooked him up to an intravenous drip of confidence before coming on. This was the Burke we've been waiting for ever since RB Leipzig paid £15million for him, but he needs to do it for more than twenty minutes to become a viable first choice up front.


    At least there was a clear plan and shape
    Coming up with a plan of attack is so much harder for a coach than getting the defence organized - and even more so at international level because of the lack of time available to work with players. But even at this early stage the difference between McLeish's Scotland and Clarke's Scotland was night and day. The attackers and midfielders clearly knew their roles without the ball and once the first ten minutes had passed and they had adjusted to Cyprus' surprise decision to play a back three the home side completely controlled the game. Unlike during his predecessor's tenure, it was also clear that the boss had done his homework; I was perturbed by the lack of defensive midfielder in the lineup, but Clarke clearly anticipated that there would be few defensive responsibilities needed in that area and so deployed a more technical player, Kenny McLean, in that position.

    Clarke also made important changes at half-time, instructing Callum McGregor to get higher up the pitch and encouraging Ryan Fraser to carry the ball instead of crossing early. These contributed significantly to the improved second half performance.


    Cyprus never actually looked much like scoring
    Yes, I know that sounds daft given that they did score but David Marshall made one save in each half and could have spent long periods leaning on the post doing Su Doku puzzles. I was supremely confident that we'd see it out at 1-0 because the players looked like they knew exactly what they were doing and actually looked more likely to score than Cyprus did. And whilst they were let down by a rare lapse by Andrew Robertson, who blotted his copybook by losing his marker at a corner, the back four looked really comfortable in open play. Scott McKenna had arguably his best game in a Scotland shirt, undoubtedly helped by having an experienced partner in Charlie Mulgrew.


    What next?
    The next four qualifiers are Belgium away, Russia at home, Belgium at home, Russia away. Ooft. It's certainly not all that unlikely we won't win any of them - and even if we do the chances of finishing second in the group are minimal unless we can get four points or more off at least one of those two teams. Realistically the onus has to be performance rather than results, with next spring the priority. Rome wasn't built in a day.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007.  He has a life outside this blog.  Honestly.
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  16. hislopsoffsideagain
    It is ten months since Covid forced Scottish football into lockdown. After all this time we still have no fans at matches, all divisions from League One downwards have been stopped until at least the end of January and the Scottish Cup has been halted. How depressing.


    And that is of course because of the even more miserable fact that Covid is still out there. Vaccination will hopefully provide a light at the end of the tunnel. But for Scottish football clubs that light cannot be reached quickly enough, and there is always the underlying fear that it will turn out that the end of said tunnel is on fire.


    It is reassuring that so far none of the 42 SPFL clubs have hit the wall, and that none appear to be in imminent danger of doing so. Government grants of £500,000 to each Championship club, £150,000 to each League One club and £100,000 to each League Two club, coupled with the philanthropy of James Anderson, have been a real boon.


    Meanwhile Premiership clubs can access a reasonably generous loan scheme from the government. This week Kilmarnock were the first team to confirm they'll be taking up this opportunity, admitting they expect a seven figure loss for this season. That's a huge sum of money for a club of their size and there's no reason to believe other similar-sized top flight clubs - with the exception of Motherwell, who sold David Turnbull to Celtic for megabucks - aren't in the same boat, even despite taking advantage of the furlough scheme during the spring and summer.


    But that government support should mean they can weather the storm till the end of the season...as long as the season ends.


    The big fear now for Premiership - and other SPFL - clubs has to be that Covid forces things to a halt again. That would mean missing out on several million pounds of TV money from Sky Sports and would therefore reduce the size of the prize money pot drastically. 


    And while the top flight has managed (with a few notable exceptions) to keep going since August, the bottom line is that Covid restrictions were a lot more relaxed then than they are now. The halting of the lower divisions seems based on the not unreasonable logic that sending mostly part-time players, who may be exposed to Covid as part of their day jobs, all around the country is not especially wise; in order to continue, Championship clubs have had to start their own testing regimens. At a cost of £18,000 per month, I wonder whether a few of those teams might be quite happy to stop too; instead of paying players to play in front of no fans, they'd be able to go back to furloughing and save money.


    One potential consequence of that though would be one which is also staring League One and League Two in the face: not being able to complete this season either. Whilst calling the leagues by points-per-game was pretty acceptable after playing so much of the 2019/20 season, the clubs outside the Premiership are not even halfway into a truncated twenty-seven match 2020/21 campaign. Clyde of League One and Cowdenbeath and Albion Rovers of League Two have only played eight games. Can promotion and relegation be decided if clubs can only play each other twice - or worse, if they can't even manage that? I imagine that scenario gives Ann Budge at Tynecastle sleepless nights.


    League One and Two clubs have apparently sent a plan to the SPFL for restarting in the next few weeks. My cynicism is somewhat heightened by the fact that virtually no details of the plan are in the public eye aside from a commitment to testing. Given the cost of the protocols that the bigger clubs follow would surely be prohibitive (and I'm sure the Scottish Government would not look kindly on large chunks of public money being frittered away on tests) I suspect the plan advocates use of the cheaper lateral flow tests...which by any medical standard are a pretty lousy test. I would be surprised if such a scheme garnered support.


    For too often it is forgotten that the welfare of football, and of the clubs, is of minor importance compared to that of society in general. For all Neil Doncaster's claims that Scottish football is too important to the economy, it was last estimated to be worth £214m a year (0.12% of GDP) and support 5700 FTE jobs; for comparison, Debenhams employed 11,000 people in Scotland alone before it's recent crisis. It could be argued - and I bet it will be by folk who aren't interested in the sport - that the government have been very generous in their support, especially given much of the value of the game and many of the jobs it supports will be focussed very much on two big Glasgow teams...and I don't mean Partick Thistle and Queen's Park.


    So it is quite possible that until restrictions are eased considerably, which may be several months away, that the lower leagues will remain in stasis. Heck, if there is another outbreak at a Premiership or Championship club in the near future, despite all their protocols, one might imagine the pressure to halt those divisions becoming too great.


    Ditto if there is another scandal anywhere near the level of Dubaigate. And it did not go unnoticed that in amongst a rant that will rank up there with the Jim MacLean punch and Billy Brown's Bin Places, Dun Hings as one of the most infamous Scottish football interviews of all time, Neil Lennon decided to take aim at St Johnstone and Hamilton Accies, whom he suggested had not provided Covid-friendly facilities for Celtic when they had visited.


    Both clubs have strongly denied this - St Johnstone's assertion that they gave Celtic four dressing rooms suggests that Lennon's comments were mostly a combination of whataboutery and vindictiveness - but then Derek McInnes poured a bit more fuel onto this dumpster fire by saying "there are a couple of grounds where the concerns are clear right from the outset and you are a bit nervous about that next Covid test."


    This is not helpful to anyone. From a public health viewpoint, if clubs had concerns they should have been raised immediately and not alluded to weeks later when any damage will have been done. For the powers that be, this innuendo just gives politicians more ammunition if they do decide to force a stoppage.


    For all Lennon's ravings about a 'political' agenda, I'd say it could be argued that the government have been pretty good to Scottish football during all of this. Now the question is whether our game can be careful enough, clever enough and, I daresay, lucky enough to get out the other end of this frightful era.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 
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  17. hislopsoffsideagain
    It's fashionable to slag off the Scottish Championship because of its lack of quality, but in recent times the gap between the bottom of the Premiership and the best sides in the second tier hasn't been big. The problem is that during the season the clubs that are - or should be - at the top of the division have, either due to overconfidence or lack of confidence, developed a habit of playing down to the opposition.

    And that's what makes it so intriguing. This is the sixth consecutive season that at least one of Rangers, Hearts, Hibs and Dundee United - generally considered amongst the largest half-dozen clubs in the country - have been stuck in this league, and only the Jambos got out at the first attempt.

    So quality? Not much, though more than its detractors would believe. Competitive as hell? Damn right. And now we have Dundee derbies added to the mix.

    Let's get the lowdown on the ten clubs fighting for promotion to the promised land or to avoid demotion to the seaside leagues...


    ALLOA ATHLETIC
    Jim Goodwin pulled off a miracle by keeping the part-timers up last season; to lose him was a terrible shame, but to lose him mid-summer was a disaster. Peter Grant now has the task of doing it all again but with, as it stands, a weaker squad. Goodwin played the loan market magnificently and Grant needs to do the same if the Wasps are to avoid the drop again. It's probably an even tougher task than last time around


    ARBROATH
    Dick Campbell is the face of lower league Scottish football - both metaphorically and literally - but this is the first time since 2007 he's managed at this level. And it's the first time the Red Lichties have flown this high in sixteen years. Budget constraints mean Campbell is largely stuck with the squad that won League One. There's lots of experience here and they'll be a tough nut to crack but as with any part-time side they'll find it hard to keep up with full-time opponents over a whole season.


    AYR UNITED
    Ayr's fourth place finish was down to their lightning start; they won just 5 of their last 24 games last season. And now Lawrence Shankland has gone. So have stalwart defenders Liam Smith and Michael Rose. Thankfully Ross Doohan has returned in goal for another season but the other holes will be hard to fill. Ian McCall has been active in the loan market, bringing in Rangers' Stephen Kelly and Aberdeen's Frank Ross to boost the midfield, but he'll need veteran forwards Kris Doolan and Michael Moffat to roll back the years if United are to get anywhere near the playoffs again.


    DUNDEE
    Rookie manager plus high expectations plus a huge squad revamp often equals disaster, but James McPake talks the talk and the signings of Jordon Forster in defence, Shaun Byrne and Jamie Ness in midfield and Danny Johnson up front are impressive. If the team gels together quickly and avoids a slow start then they should challenge at the top but the pressure is likely to grow quickly if early results aren't good (and if they are better at the other end of Tannadice Street).


    DUNDEE UNITED
    For Arabs, the new season is the equivalent of Father Jack sobering up and shouting "don't tell me I'm still on this fecking island?!". Surely their fourth campaign at this level will be their last, now they've added the firepower of Lawrence Shankland to an attack that already includes Osman Sow and Nicky Clark? And they have Cammy Smith, Peter Pawlett, Adam King and Paul McMullan for creativity. Yet, if any team can possibly screw this up, its United...


    DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC
    The Pars have changed tack considerably, cutting their budget and putting the emphasis on signing "young, hungry players" and, er, Paul Paton. Their hope is that they can find some gems in Scotland's lower divisions and in English under-23 sides that can push them towards promotion and earn the club lucrative transfer fees. It's a bit risky though. Reassuringly there's still plenty of experience at the back, and former Raith striker Kevin Nisbet has looked sharp up front in the League Cup games.


    GREENOCK MORTON
    It's been all change at Cappielow on and off the pitch with David Hopkin replacing Jonatan Johansson as manager and only a handful of first teamers retained. John Sutton coming out of retirement was a curious one and makes one wonder what the budget is like; a decent chunk of it is likely to have gone on Aidan Nesbitt and Robbie Muirhead, two youngsters who so far have failed to realize their potential. It will be a tough ask for Hopkin to repeat the success he had at Livingston.


    INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE
    Caley Thistle will struggle to replace assist machine Liam Polworth; the addition of James Keatings suggests a move to a more orthodox 4-4-2 this season. In Aaron Doran and Tom Walsh they have a tremendous duo of wide players and the onus is on them to provide the chances. Coll Donaldson and Jamie McCart might be the best centre-back duo in the Championship but they need a reliable goalscorer if they are to get promoted.


    PARTICK THISTLE
    The signs at the end of last season were reassuring that Gary Caldwell is on the right track, and there's been talk of new investment at the club which may lead to the squad being augmented further. Tam O'Ware's return from injury boosts the backline and getting midfielder Shea Gordon back permanently might be one of the best moves anyone's made this summer. Another side whose challenge depends on finding a consistent source of goals - we'll see if 39 year old Kenny Miller still has enough in the tank.


    QUEEN OF THE SOUTH
    Allan Johnston was parachuted in to save them from relegation and did so. Now he has to put a team together on possibly the smallest full-time budget in Scotland. He's done well to get defender Callum Semple back and to win the race to sign highly-rated keeper Robby McCrorie on loan. At the time of writing they are hideously short in midfield though and they will lean more heavily than ever on 36 year old talisman Stephen Dobbie to carry them.


    And here's how I think the table will end up:

    1. DUNDEE UNITED

    2. DUNDEE
    3. INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE
    4. PARTICK THISTLE

    5. DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC
    6. GREENOCK MORTON
    7. AYR UNITED
    8. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH

    9. ARBROATH

    10. ALLOA ATHLETIC


    But I still expect United fans will claim I hate them anyway...;-)

    Lawrie Spence (LS) has ranted and spouted his ill-informed opinions on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007.  He has a life outside this blog.  Honestly.

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  18. hislopsoffsideagain
    Okay, so in terms of finances the headline is just an eensy weensy bit OTT. Inverness Caley Thistle should have enough cash to get through the season. And given that a club of the size of Queen of the South can still manage to stay full-time there's not really any likelihood of ICT having to go part-time in the near future.

    Still, they have suffered losses of £2m in the last three years - £400,000 in the 2016/17 relegation campaign and £800,000 in each of the last two seasons. That's really quite a lot of money.

    Worse, last season's figures did not improve despite a run to the Scottish Cup semi-finals, a league finish two places higher than in 2017/18 and a few high earners being moved on.

    Hence an EGM in September which was essentially a (successful) plea for directors and local businessmen and allies of the club to stump up some cash to cover any shortfall for the rest of the current campaign.

    On the pitch things are at least a bit rosier. ICT lie second in the Championship. The title and automatic promotion are now out of reach; Dundee United are approximately a gazillion points clear and would still win the division if they put Csaba Laszlo back in charge for the remaining matches. However the Highlanders have a juicy ten point cushion over fifth place and are in pole position to get the bye week for the promotion playoffs whilst the third- and fourth-placed sides joust. That in itself would improve their chances of going up.

    But now it's January, so clubs are sniffing around players whose contracts expire in the summer. As one of the Championship's better sides, it's no surprise that there is interest in Caley Thistle's players. And with the chances of going up still not especially high - four out of six playoff finals have been won by the Premiership side - it's also no surprise that the players are interested in moves to Premiership clubs.

    Central defender Coll Donaldson, a Dundee United dud rebuilt in Inverness, has talked to Ross County. St. Johnstone have been linked with his fellow defenders Jamie McCart and Shaun Rooney. McCart is still only 22 and has impressed since joining from Celtic. Rooney had underwhelmed at Queen of the South before signing but has improved exponentially over the last year into a powerful, athletic attacking right-back.

    According to reports, at least two more players have suitors. One is almost certainly winger Tom Walsh, whose season has been interrupted by hamstring problems but who is outstanding at getting half a yard on his man and whipping in a cross with either foot. The other may be Jordan White, the archetypal Big Man Up Front. He is apparently wanted by Motherwell, though I have no idea why.

    That's essentially half a team that are very likely to leave in the summer...or sooner than that. Inverness signed Falkirk defender Lewis Toshney last week in a move that could well be covering Donaldson joining County during this window.

    That's not to say the players left behind are all hopeless. Sean Welsh is one of the best midfielders in the league but is also made of glass. James Keatings is a good attacker for this level. Mark Ridgers offers a reliable pair of hands between the sticks.

    But rebuilding this team, and almost certainly with an even tighter budget, would be some undertaking. As Falkirk have recently shown, a big turnover of players can go spectacularly wrong.

    It is quite remarkable that, three years into their current stay in the Championship, Caley Thistle have their best chance to get out of it. If they can't take it, it would be even more remarkable if another one came around any time soon.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly

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  19. hislopsoffsideagain
    Yes, I know, it's all a bit half-assed this year. Here's the midfield and forwards. And I explained last week why I don't consider Mohamed Elyounoussi a candidate for this.


    CENTRAL MIDFIELDERS: CALLUM MCGREGOR (CELTIC), ALI MCCANN (ST. JOHNSTONE)
    Honourable mentions: Alex Gogic (Hamilton Academical), Liam Donnelly (Motherwell), Lewis Ferguson (Aberdeen), Marvin Bartley (Livingston)

    McGregor is the easy pick, of course. His form seemed to dip a little when Neil Lennon returned, but this season he was consistently outstanding. I could have picked any of the other five names to play alongside him. Gogic was moved forward from central defence and looks like he's been a holding midfielder forever. Donnelly, previously a left-back, went on a crazy goal streak at the start of the season and whilst the scoring tailed off the performances didn't. Tackling machine Bartley fits in perfectly at the Spaghettihad. And Ferguson was one of Aberdeen's top performers again, though his Young Player Of The Year award should have gone to McCann. The St. Johnstone player just about came out of nowhere to star for them this season, shining even when they struggled early on and then thriving as they turned the season around. It's just a shame the 20 year old seems to have decided his international future lies with Northern Ireland.


    ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS: JAMES FORREST (CELTIC), NIALL MCGINN (ABERDEEN)
    Honourable mentions: Chris Burke (Kilmarnock), Steven Lawless (Livingston), Ryan Christie (Celtic), Liam Polworth (Motherwell)

    Again, one choice was straightforward; Forrest continued being a goal and assist machine for the Champions this season. The other pick was trickier. I ultimately plumped for McGinn, who I thought had lost a yard but instead wound the clock back to 2016 with the quality of his play. It was tempting to go for Burke though, given that the 36 year old was consistently excellent for Kilmarnock. Lawless suffers somewhat for being more of a wing-back which makes it hard for me to shoehorn him in, but he arguably had the best campaign of his career and looks likely to make a decent move this summer. Ryan Christie played well but seemed to be the odd one out whenever Celtic tried to play with two up top. Polworth took his astonishing assist record from the Championship up to the top flight.


    STRIKERS: ODSONNE EDOUARD (CELTIC), ALFREDO MORELOS (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Lyndon Dykes (Livingston), Christian Doidge (Hibernian), Ross Stewart (Ross County), Jermain Defoe (Rangers)

    No surprises here given Edouard was the league's outstanding player and Morelos (at least until January) scored for fun. Dykes proved a nightmare for any defender with his physical yet intelligent play and has plenty of suitors. Doidge made a slow start but improved drastically after Paul Heckingbottom left Hibs. Ross Stewart was a bit of a surprise success for Ross County with his pace and ability in the air. And Jermain Defoe deserves a thought given he hit double figures even though he is ultimately Morelos' backup.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 

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  20. hislopsoffsideagain
    It's been, what, two weeks without football? The withdrawal is already so bad that I gave in to the Football Manager 2020 free trial; after 12 years on the wagon I'm now obsessing about how to get Weymouth out of the National League South. Either I pay full whack for the game or I face being locked in my childhood bedroom for a week being fed nothing but pea soup. Choose life, choose a job, choose a career, choose '4-2-4 wing play custom route one'.

    But my tremors and nightsweats are nothing compared to those of the people who actually run football clubs. Forget the crazy schemes like secluding Premier League squads in the midlands for a month to play matches behind closed doors in order to keep the nation from cracking each other's heads open to feast on the goo inside. It'll be fecking months before we're even allowed jumpers for goalposts again.

    That's if, in the post-covid 19 world, there's actually any football to go back to. Given that giants such as Barcelona and Juventus are having to agree wage cuts/deferrals with players, what hope is there for Scottish clubs? Will they all have gone bust by the time we return to a semblance of normality?

    The challenges they face are pretty similar: paying wages (and other outgoings like council tax) whilst having no income.

    The sums involved are of course a bit more modest than those regarding Leo Messi and co. At one extreme end of the SPFL scale there is Celtic, whose staff costs for 2018/19 were £56.4m. Only Rangers and Aberdeen also have staff costs above £10m/year. Hearts and Hibs are not far off that, while most of the other Premiership clubs are under £5m/year. The smallest full-time sides, in the Championship and at the top of League One, are at closer to £1m or even less.

    At the other end are the part-timers. Winger, teacher and blogger Danny Denholm, now plying his trade at East Fife, wrote in the December 2018 edition of Nutmeg Magazine that the average League One wage was between £100 and £300/week. There are some players *cough* Rory McAllister *cough* who will be on far more than that.

    There's also the awkward situation with player contracts, many of which will expire in May or June at a point that is still some way away from a return to football. It's likely that FIFA and/or UEFA will agree a blanket move to extend contracts a few months. If this doesn't happen there will be a few clubs disadvantaged, as some players will surely take the chance to jump ship and join another club as per usual. Those however will be dwarfed by the number of players who are released to save money and who will find it very difficult to find another team until the footie actually starts again.

    In one sense the smaller clubs might be better protected. The government's furlough scheme, which clubs should be eligible for, will pay 80% of wages up to a total of £2500/month. That should cover any player earning £3,100/month or less - which extrapolates to about £700/week, a figure that should be cover most players from the Championship (those not based in the City Of Discovery, anyway) down.

    Maybe that's how Caley Thistle - not exactly awash with cash - can pledge to pay staff who earn under £24,000/year - essentially those who would be covered by the government scheme - in full with higher paid staff taking a 20% cut, and Partick Thistle can guarantee all staff wages up till the end of May.

    Yet there's still Raith Rovers, one of League One's full-time clubs, starting a fundraising drive, while Peterhead, Montrose, Dumbarton and Elgin City are amongst the part-time teams whose players are taking wage cuts. The bottom line is that these clubs have very little cash in terms of cash reserves in the bank and are heavily dependent on gate money - even more so at this time of the season when season ticket cash has long been spent.

    At the other end of the scale are Hearts, whose players have been asked to take a 50% pay cut or terminate their contracts. Defender Clevid Dikamona, who took the chance to return to his family in France but holds out hope of returning next season, is so far the only player to take the latter option. I may be being harsh but I feel like a business with an annual turnover of £15m should be more resilient. Then again, the Jambos were supposedly paying some players a crazy £6,000/week.

    Most Premiership players will be on deals which, while not as daft as that, are more expensive than that covered by the government and therefore only a smaller percentage will be covered. So whilst no other top flight sides have yet commented publicly on wage cuts, it would be a surprise if it didn't happen sooner or later, possibly in agreement with PFA Scotland. After all, Aberdeen have admitted they'll lose £1.2m a month as it stands.

    We're also coming into the period of the year where season tickets for next season normally go on sale. Some clubs are already cracking on as per usual, hoping fans won't mind paying full whack even when it's not clear how many games they'll be watching and when they'll be. You'd think that sales will be markedly lower both for this reason and because plenty of fans have their own money worries right now.

    So which clubs should we be concerned about?

    All forty-two have at least cleared the first (admittedly, not very high) hurdle of paying March's wages, though some of the above-mentioned clubs may have implicated cuts as part of this. But we're only a fortnight into this. The situation will be far clearer in a month's time.

    It is a bit simplistic but not entirely unreasonable to assume clubs who have a rich sugar daddy - the Dundee clubs, Ross County and Hibernian come to mind - have more resilience. And if you have £39million just resting in your account, you'll be fine. By the end of this, Peter Lawwell may be sleeping on a smaller pile of money, mind.

    It might also be presumptuous to conclude Hearts are in trouble given their swift actions. Perhaps they're just the ones quickest off the mark. Or perhaps I'm being overly generous.

    There's also the red, white and blue elephant in the room. It's only a few months since Rangers stated that they required £10m to get them through the season. Their Europa League run will certainly have helped there but it seems that hopes of significant outside investment have evaporated. There are still some very wealthy people involved there though who have not been shy of providing interest-free loans that end up as equity further down the line. And there's also a huge fanbase who will surely not hold back when season ticket sales commence.

    So with a bit of common sense and a combination of prudence and government support, hopefully everyone will come out of this if not unscathed then only slightly wounded. Here's to hoping, anyway...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  21. hislopsoffsideagain
    In League One, we inevitably find a handful of full-time teams who really shouldn't be down here, and a bunch of battle-hardened part-time clubs who look forward to knocking them off their f****** perch.

    And often they succeed, as shown last year when Arbroath won the division. It was another part-time side, Forfar, who came second. But it would be a huge shock if a full time side *cough* Falkirk *cough* didn't win it this time.

    And the trouble with being part-time is that squads are often pretty small which means lack of options if injuries mount up or players lose confidence, and things can go wrong very quickly.

    Here's the runners and riders...

    AIRDRIEONIANS
    Airdrie have returned to a mostly full-time setup for this season; the last time they did this they ran into all sorts of problems but this time round they have a steadier ship. Ian Murray has basically revamped the entire squad but on paper it certainly looks strong enough to challenge at the right end. Calum Gallagher and Ally Roy should provide plenty of goals.


    CLYDE
    Cumbernauld's finest are back at this level for the first time in nine years and their best hope of staying here is of course David Goodwillie. Danny Lennon is an accomplished manager at this level and has looked to improve supply to his star man by signing Chris Johnston and Darren Smith. They'll fancy their chances of making the step up.


    DUMBARTON
    Looked to be in a bit of a crisis early in the summer due to uncertainty about budget and whether Jim Duffy was staying. This seems settled now but has left them playing catchup, never a good thing. However Duffy has a great reputation for developing young players and has also grabbed a gem or two; Joe McKee should stroll this league.


    EAST FIFE
    Collapsed at the end of last season when seemingly certain to make the playoffs. Their League Cup form has been good though so hopefully that was just a blip. Crucially they've retained impressive striker Anton Dowds and brought back Chris Duggan to partner him. You could imagine them getting into the top four...and you could imagine them getting into the bottom four too.


    FALKIRK
    It's embarrassing they're down in this league and they look determined to steamroll it. Cammy Bell, Michael Tidser, Denny Johnstone, Connor Sammon, Declan McManus...just some of the players who have signed for the Bairns this season. Anything other than top spot by a country mile would seem an a massive letdown.


    FORFAR ATHLETIC
    Came on leaps and bounds under Jim Weir last season but repeating second place will be tough with Dylan Easton and Thomas Reilly having followed the money to Kelty Hearts and John Baird having retired to Australia. Ross Forbes, Jordan Kirkpatrick and Andy Jackson look like great signings though and they are still one of the division's better teams.


    MONTROSE
    Stewart Petrie should get far more credit for turning these perennial losers into League Two winners and then the fourth best team in League One. It'll be hard to make it stick as other sides try and improve, but attracting Kerr Waddell and Cammy Ballantyne to the club shows just how far they've come. Again, underestimate them at your peril.


    PETERHEAD
    Back up after a two year absence and they're always dangerous because of Rory McAllister's goals. They did well to attract the highly thought of Aidan Smith, Scott Hooper and Gary Fraser in the summer. Having made the League One promotion playoffs earlier in Jim McInally' long reign they will have aspirations to do so again.


    RAITH ROVERS
    Somehow failed to win this division last year or the year before despite having the biggest budget...and this season will be tougher because of Falkirk's presence. Their League Cup form has been poor too. John McGlynn has tried to refresh the squad and look out for striker Lewis Allan and midfielder Regan Hendry to impress.


    STRANRAER
    They've done remarkably well to stay afloat despite gradual costcutting in the last few years but it gets harder each time. Grant Gallagher, Ryan Thomson and Scott Robertson return to the club after periods away but they'll need Mark Stewart to roll back the years and score plenty if they are to stay up again.


    So this is my prediction of how it'll finish:

    1. FALKIRK

    2. RAITH ROVERS
    3. AIRDRIEONIANS
    4. FORFAR ATHLETIC

    5. DUMBARTON
    6. MONTROSE
    7. EAST FIFE
    8. PETERHEAD

    9. CLYDE

    10. STRANRAER


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  22. hislopsoffsideagain
    The Scottish Premiership has been back in full flow for sometime, but we're now just a month from the Championship, League One and League Two restarting (though the League Cup begins a week and a half before that). These clubs last played a competitive game in early March, and a lot has happened since then. 
    Here's where the ten Championship clubs are currently at. With the transfer window still open till 5th October and loan restrictions eased there will be plenty of signings at each club in the coming weeks. Each Championship club's current squad list can be found here. For more details on transfer moves so far check out the SPFL transfers page.

    ALLOA ATHLETIC
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Parry, Taggart, Graham, Deas, Dick, Cawley, Flannigan, Hetherington, Banks, Trouten, O'Hara

    Peter Grant looks set to follow the template that has previously worked well for both him and predecessor Jim Goodwin: keep the core of the squad together and supplement it with clever loan moves and one or two permanent signings. The snag is that his two best players have left - Kevin O'Hara returns to full-time football with Dunfermline, while the delightful playmaker Iain Flannigan surprisingly chose to retire at age 32. Of the players retained, that ever-reliable backbone is another year older; Andy Graham (36), Liam Buchanan (35) and Alan Trouten (34) cannot go on forever. So far Grant has brought in Hibs winger Innes Murray on loan, along with Nicky Jamieson (who played in League Two last season) and his own son Ray. Expect more new faces, with a further centre-back and striker a must.


    ARBROATH
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Gaston, Thomson, O'Brien, Little, Hamilton, Stewart, Virtanen, Whatley, Linn, Wighton, Donnelly

    See Alloa's plan for success...except Dick Campbell has held onto everyone he wanted to keep, convinced the outstanding Tam O'Brien to sign a new contract, and got the impressive Finn Miko Virtanen back for a second season on loan from Aberdeen with another Don, forward Michael Ruth, in tow. Clearly Premiership managers trust Dick Campbell to develop their players. With a very solid back four, Campbell can concentrate what remaining resources he has on bolstering his midfield and attack. Though Luke Donnelly and Dale Hilson are busy and Kris Doolan and Bobby Linn offer veteran nous, a prolific goalscorer would be a gamechanger.

    AYR UNITED
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Doohan, Houston, Bell, Muirhead, Harvie, Malley, Kelly, Kerr, Forrest, Drinan, Moffat
    This looked likely to be a transitional summer at Somerset Park, given that most of the remaining Ian McCall All-Stars moved on. But instead Mark Kerr has been pretty bold so far, and I'd say that procuring wingers Tom Walsh and Dario Zanatta, defenders Jack Baird and Patrick Reading (who you haven't heard of but has a Scotland under-21 cap) and midfielder Joe Chalmers counts as a statement of intent. The big question marks remain up front - where they'll be looking for a better option than Craig Moore or 35 year old Michael Moffat - and between the sticks, with perennial backup Ellis Hare-Reid the only goalie under contract at the time of writing. Kerr made excellent use of the English loan market in January and expect more of that in the coming weeks.

    DUNDEE
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Hazard, Kerr, Berra, McGhee, Marshall, Elliott, Byrne, McGowan, Dorrans, McDaid, Hemmings

    It's been an eventful few months at Dens Park. First there was the bizarre no-then-yes vote to ending the season (for motives that remain unclear). That was followed by staff redundancies and player wage-cuts, with striker Kane Hemmings refusing the pay cut...then agreeing to it...then cancelling his contract after all. And now we have Charlie Adam rocking up at the club he left seventeen years ago for a last hurrah. With Graham Dorrans and Paul McGowan already at the club they will not be short of midfield creativity, but it'll be interesting to see how McPake fits them all into the team, and who will do the leg work for the trio of veterans. We'll also find out if the manager has learned from his difficult rookie year in the dugout and can at least make his lineup equal to the sum of its parts on a consistent basis. Even though Hemmings and Andrew Nelson have left, replacements Alex Jakubiak and Danny Mullen should offer more than enough quality up top (then again, we said the same about Hemmings, Nelson and Danny Johnson last year). And the defence and midfield should be good enough on paper - though the thought of Jack Hamilton being first choice goalkeeper will give Dundee fans the boak.

    DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Fon Williams, Comrie, Ashcroft, Martin, Murray, Dow, Ross, Paton, Thomas, Nisbet, Afolabi
    The summer began with a lot of pessimistic noises coming out of East End Park about budget cuts and player releases, segued into a nice windfall from selling Kevin Nisbet to Hibs, and finished up with significant investment in the club from Germany. The club has stressed that there won't be significant cash-splashing but one would assume the new investors have plans for bringing in players (and at least stretching the club's scouting network beyond Kirkcaldy). Meanwhile Stevie Crawford has already tied up goalkeeper Owain Fon Williams and winger Dom Thomas after brief but impressive loan spells pre-Covid, and with Nisbet gone he'll be looking to Declan McManus (returning for his second spell at the club) and Kevin O'Hara (a rather controversial signing given his ban a few years ago for taunting Dean Shiels about his eyesight) for goals. I also have high hopes for ex-Killie midfielder Iain Wilson. However the Pars' squad may look quite different come the end of the window...


    GREENOCK MORTON
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Rogers, Tumilty, McGinty, Baird, Strapp, Nesbitt, Jacobs, McAlister, Cadden, Orsi, McHugh
    Morton have been very bullish publicly about how they feel things are going under David Hopkin, but unless there's a lot of business still to come the current window feels like a costcutting one. It was no surprise to see Nicky Cadden leave but he was excellent last season and it's still a massive blow. One suspects Hopkin might have wanted to keep John Baird and Reghan Tumilty for this season, while Bob McHugh chose to leave for Ray McKinnon's Queen's Park project. So far the only signings are the returning Gary Oliver and Elgin wideman Rabin Omar. So that means currently the club have no senior goalkeeper, no right-back and just one out-and-out centre forward. Not ideal.


    HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Zlamal, Clare, M. Smith, Halkett, Souttar, Hickey, Bozanic, Haring, Walker, Naismith, Boyce
    Hearts' hopes of a relegation reprieve came to nothing in the end but it would be a shock if their absence from the Premiership lasted beyond this campaign. New boss Robbie Neilson certainly has an affinity for this division, having won it twice before (including last season with Dundee United). And even though they have moved on about a gazillion players - some of whom they probably wished they could keep - this squad was already probably strong enough to walk this league before Neilson started adding to it. Craig Gordon will surely be an upgrade in goal, while he's brought in three wide players - Jordan Roberts, Josh Ginnelly and Elliott Frear - to improve a real area of weakness. Aaron Hickey's imminent exit and John Souttar's injury hurt the defence but - if Christophe Berra is still up to it - the Jambos should have plenty of cover there. And that strike force of Liam Boyce and Steven Naismith should score for fun.


    INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Ridgers, Rooney, Toshney, McKay, Tremarco, Vincent, Welsh, Walsh, Keatings, Doran, White
    John Robertson recently lamented that every year seemed to be a rebuilding year. With four first choice players and midfielder Charlie Trafford away, along with the two centre-backs he lost in January, it'll be hard to keep Caley Thistle 'best of the rest'. Whether they have the cash to find replacements is unclear - last year there were concerns re their finances and they kept their players on furlough longer than most but the club have spoken positively about where they are going forward. That said, Robbo's claim that ex-Elgin forward Shane Sutherland could score 15 goals seems very optimistic indeed. The club have high hopes than youngster Cameron Harper can fill the Carl Tremarco-shaped hole at left-back and Robbie Deas could be the next Jamie McCart, but the other defensive options (Lewis Toshney, Brad McKay, Danny Devine) look dicey and they still don't have a natural right-back. Robertson has previously plucked players from the English lower leagues and I'd expect a few signings from that market in the coming weeks.


    QUEEN OF THE SOUTH
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Stewart, Mercer, Kilday, Ledger, Holt, Murray, Pybus, Osman, Wilson, Oliver, Dobbie
    As of May, the Doonhamers had just three players under contract - Stephen Dobbie (who will be 38 in December), Kevin Holt and backup goalie Jack Leighfield. Dan Pybus has subsequently signed on again but Holt has left for Cyprus so Allan Johnston has a huge task on his hands. It's got to the point that 36 year old reserve coach Wullie Gibson - who hasn't played at this level in five years or at all since November 2019 - has signed a playing contract. Loan signing Aidan Fitzpatrick looks like a good addition and Joe McKee deserves another shot at the Championship, but one feels it'll take a lot of work to get QOS up to standard. And bear in mind that last season was halted with them only two points above bottom spot, having played a game more than Partick Thistle and having picked up three points out of thirty.


    RAITH ROVERS
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Munro, Miller, Anderson, Davidson, Benedictus, MacDonald, Matthews, Hendry, Spencer, MacLean, Bowie
    Newly promoted sides are always competitive in this league and Raith will be no exception. John McGlynn has been quick to strengthen his weak areas with Jamie MacDonald joining in goal and Reghan Tumilty at right-back. His other signings so far are from down south with Gozie Ugwu, who scored 15 goals in the National League last season, an intriguing addition up front. If Lewis Vaughan can successfully return from a third ACL rupture then Rovers will be very dangerous.


    If you were to ask me to predict the outcome of the season right now I'd say...there's no chance I'm going to fall for that. The shortened season makes things far less clear-cut and as stated above squads may look very different come early October.
    Then I'd say "Oh, and Hearts are going to walk it..."

    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. View the full article
  23. hislopsoffsideagain
    PREDICTED LEAGUE POSITION: ELEVENTH

    LAST SEASON: 9th, 44pts

    NOTABLE INS: Marvin Bartley (Hibernian), Robbie Crawford (Ayr United), Nicky Devlin (Walsall), Cece Pepe (Rieti), Ibrahima Savane (Bezieres), Aymen Souda (Dunarea Calarasi), Matija Sarkic (Aston Villa, loan)

    NOTABLE OUTS: Liam Kelly (Queens Park Rangers, £50k), Shaun Byrne (Dundee), Nicky Cadden (Greenock Morton), Callum Crane (Edinburgh City), Declan Gallagher (Motherwell), Craig Halkett (Heart of Midlothian), Matthew Knox (Brechin City), Henk Van Schaik (Greenock Morton), Cameron Blues (Greenock Morton, loan), Raffaele De Vita (Partick Thistle, loan), Jack Hamilton (Queen of the South, loan), Dolly Menga (Petro de Luanda, loan), Ciaron Brown (Cardiff City, end of loan), Ryan Hardie (Rangers, end of loan)

    LAST SEASON'S BEST XI (Departed players crossed out): Kelly, Lithgow, Halkett, Gallagher, Lawless, Jacobs, Byrne, Pittman, Lamie, Robinson, Hardie


    How to write about Livingston's efforts last season without sounding patronizing? On reflection, all I can do is ask you to give me the benefit of the doubt.

    Livi came ninth in the Premiership last season, which is some effort for a club that had been promoted via the playoffs, which was operating on (probably) the lowest budget in the league, and who changed manager twice between winning promotion and the first international break of the next campaign.

    How did they do it? When Gary Holt replaced Kenny Miller as manager, he basically undid all the changes Miller tried to make and went back to the formula that worked so well for David Hopkin. No-one was more direct than they were, that isn;t the same thing as aimless punting up the park. Long balls were sent into space for busy forwards to chase, and the midfield, which appeared literally tireless, hoovered up second balls. Free-kicks, corners, long throws - all of them were dangerous as hell. And they were superbly organized defensively.

    Okay, so it wasn't exactly hipster football. But nor was it dull. At Almondvale they did over Hearts 5-0 and Dundee 4-0, and beat Rangers too. This was not a team riding their luck. They were safe by Christmas.

    They did, however, win just three of their final twenty league matches. Was this a case of easing back once the pressure was off, or regression to the mean? We'll find out soon enough. And if this season was already at risk of becoming the 'difficult second album' regardless, it'll be even tougher without some of the talented tunesmiths that took them to their previous heights.

    That solid backline? No more. Their two most talented central defenders, Craig Halkett and Declan Gallagher, have moved on to bigger things (or at least bigger wages) at Hearts and Motherwell respectively. Not only was Halkett a Team of the Year candidate for many (including this writer) but his set-piece threat and ability to ping one in from miles out meant he was, remarkably, Livingston's joint top scorer in the league with seven goals. 

    Now Alan Lithgow is the only one left of the back three which took the Lions up two divisions in consecutive years. And, down two excellent central-defenders, it makes sense that Holt has moved to a flat back four for the new season. Ricki Lamie and new signing Nicky Devlin will be the full-backs, while at the moment Lithgow's most likely companion in the middle is Cece Pepe, a Frenchman who last played in Italy's Serie C.

    Also away is Liam Kelly, the outstanding young goalkeeper who cracked the Scotland squad last year. It turns out that in order to attract him to sign last summer the club had to agree to a clause that allowed him to leave for a derisory fee after a year. Queens Park Rangers paid it. So Aston Villa loanee Matija Sarkic takes up the gloves.

    The midfield picture isn't particularly brighter. One of its perpetual motion engines, Shaun Byrne, has chosen to join Dundee in the Championship. Byrne, Halkett, Gallagher and Kelly were four of Livingston's best five players last season. Thankfully the fifth, Scott Pittman, is still here. Pittman literally covers every blade of grass and without him they really would be in a fix. Keaghan Jacobs will start in a deeper role, alongside veteran Marvin Bartley. Bartley loves a tackle, which means he is a great fit for this team. However he is 33 and so will sit in front of the defence rather than push up to break up play. Holt also brought in Ayr United's Robbie Crawford, who is a bit more technically gifted but runs less than Byrne and tackles less than Bartley.

    Oh, and the forward line isn't in great shape either. Ryan Hardie, the other joint top scorer from last season, isn't coming back from Rangers for a third loan spell. Dolly Menga, who tailed off after a bright start, has returned to Angola on loan to boost his international prospects. And Lee Miller is 36 and surely nothing more than a 'bring on for the last five minutes if we're a goal down' option. 

    In came Lyndon Dykes (technically signed in January but loaned back to Queen of the South for the rest of last season) and Tunisian Aymen Souda. Dykes works as hard as heck (again, a good fit) and loves a shoulder barge. He does not, however, have a great scoring record even at a lower level. In contrast Souda has looked like a goal threat in the League Cup games when coming in from the flank. He could also play more centrally as a number ten, but Holt is more likely to choose between the flair of Craig Sibbald and the more workmanlike Scott Robinson for that role; the latter is better at the defensive work.

    The change of formation allows Steven Lawless to concentrate on being a winger again after he did a passable impersonation of a wing-back last season. It also means that there is potentially a role for Chris Erskine, who looked a bit out of place after signing in January.

    I am aware that I'm painting a picture of doom and gloom here. Nevertheless it would be hard for any club to bounce back from losing so many talented players. And their up-and-at-em style no longer surprises anyone, and their form in 2019 so far suggests that they might have been found out to some extent. Livingston's second season back in the top flight may go the way everyone wrongly expected their first to go - not very well at all. On the other hand, no-one thrives quite as much on being written of as Livingston do... 


    THE SQUAD (players born after 1 January 1998 in italics)
    Goalkeepers: Gary Maley, Matija Sarkic, Ross Stewart
    Defenders: Nicky Devlin, Ricki Lamie, Alan Lithgow, Jack McMillan, Hakeem Odoffin, Cece Pepe, Ibrahima Savane
    Midfielders: Marvin Bartley, Robbie Crawford, Chris Erskine, Keaghan Jacobs, Steven Lawless, Steve Lawson, Scott Pittman, Scott Robinson, Craig Sibbald, Gregg Wylde
    Forwards: Lyndon Dykes, Craig Henderson, Lee Miller, Aymen Souda, Scott Tiffoney

    THE BEST XI?



    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  24. hislopsoffsideagain
    Outgoing Aberdeen chairman Stewart Milne gave an interview a few weeks ago where he criticized the refusal of Rangers and Celtic to allow change in Scottish football. It was almost as ridiculous as the toupee he sported at the start of his 21 year reign at Pittodrie.

    Many, including former St. Mirren chairman Stewart Gilmour, were more than willing to lay into Milne for his hypocrisy and his apparent attempts to rewrite history. It's no secret that other Premiership clubs were willing to use Rangers' absence from the top flight to rewrite voting rules that meant an 11-1 majority was required for significant change, which in turn allowed Rangers and Celtic to veto things they did not favour. Aberdeen, vainly believing they could take over as Scotland's second force, derailed this for their own perceived advantage. They enter the 2019-20 winter break back in fourth place.

    However Milne's comments lay plain the fact that at the start of 2020 Scottish football is once more in thrall to the blue and green cheeks of the Glasgow arse. Currently the gap between second and third is thirteen points (and the top two have games in hand). At the end of the 2010-11 season it was twenty-nine.

    So are we basically just back where we started?


    Some might argue that the 2010s was the decade of the diddy team. Dundee United, Hearts, St. Johnstone, Inverness Caledonian Thistle and Hibernian - Hibernian, who seemed cursed to never win the competition again! - won the Scottish Cup in the last decade. Kilmarnock, St. Mirren, Aberdeen and Ross County all lifted the League Cup in the same period.

    The liquidation of Rangers in the summer of 2012 was in some ways the defining moment of the last ten years in Scottish football. Off the pitch, it doomed us all to an apparent eternity of tedious 'newco'/'Sevco'/'there is no Old Firm' arguments. On the pitch, Rangers' rise from League Two provided some welcome publicity and cash to lower league clubs and plenty of amusing moments for non-Bluenoses as the Gers made rather heavy weather of their rise up the leagues despite having the second highest wage bill in the country even when they were in the fourth tier.

    It also meant that in the top flight there was no real competition for Celtic for many years. Only two of their eight consecutive titles has been won by less than fifteen points; even those two, the last two, were won by nine.

    But in knockout competitions the door was flung wide open. The aforementioned trophy winners and their supporters were galvanized by their sudden ascendance into relevance. It rather helped that Celtic spent two years under incompetent Norwegian coach Ronny Deila; whilst their vastly superior squad depth ensured glory in the league they proved remarkably vulnerable in cup matches.

    Alas, this period was all too brief. Hibernian were the last club other than Celtic to win a cup (no, the Petrofac Training Cup doesn't count), in the summer of 2016. Since then the Bhoys have swept the board with a 'treble treble'. The combination of overwhelming financial muscle and an extremely talented coach in Brendan Rodgers made them literally unbeatable in 2016-17. Having Rodgers in the country did bring in some kudos but his extraordinary success once more left the league open to accusations of being a procession.

    Rangers were finally promoted to the Premiership in 2016, but took two further years to get themselves sorted out properly. Now under Steven Gerrard they look like Celtic's equals and could well win the title this season.

    The SPFL frequently trumpets rises in attendances, but these are mainly because of the large visiting supports the two Glasgow clubs bring. In fact many sides have noticed a reduction in the size of the home supports at these matches. The experience of hosting either club, with the dreadful, hateful songs and the strong likelihood of a heavy beating, is not a pleasant one. Fighting for a distant third place, whilst pretty much writing off three or four home matches per season, is no healthier a position than it was in the past.

    Thus Scottish football remains locked in the mindset that a strong, wealthy Rangers and Celtic, with cash trickling down to the other clubs, is the way to go.

    One thing that is different is the lack of relevance even the strongest Scottish clubs have on the European stage. Only twice in the last six years have Celtic made it to the Champions League and that ratio is unlikely to improve now that the path through qualifying has become harder. The Europa League, a distraction in the days of Deila, is now a major focus.

    Financially, it does seem as if the Champions end up selling a star player each year they don't make it to the Champions League. Rangers have spunked tens of millions away in the last seven years and still run a seven figure loss annually. This blogger's biggest concern is that other full-time clubs seem to be struggling to run within their means as well, especially the ones in the Championship. Whilst a repeat of the administration plague that hit Scottish football in the noughties is hardly imminent it is hard to see how as many 20 full-time clubs can be supported in the long term. It could be argued that none of them can break even without either significant success on the pitch or selling their best players.


    At international level the lone bright spot has been the breakthrough of Scotland's Women's team who not only qualified for a European Championship and World Cup but captured the hearts of many by doing so.

    As regards the men there has been precious little to crow about. The fact that the greatest moment of the decade for the Scotland mens' team was a Leigh Griffiths goal against England which ultimately didn't even win the match sums things up nicely.

    Even at the best of times we have no right to expect qualification for the World Cup. But a twenty-four team European Championship? Wales, Northern Ireland, Iceland and Albania got to Euro 2016. Scotland did not.

    The same old SFA failings played a major part. After gross underachievement in the Euro 2012 qualifiers - 4-6-0, indeed - Craig Levein was kept on long enough to ruin our 2014 World Cup hopes. Gordon Strachan wasn't the worst appointment, though it showed an unwillingness to think outside the box. And when, after he was let go, the powers that be tried the outside-the-box thinking they be the farm on Michael O'Neill, only to find that Northern Ireland now had a bigger farm.

    The humilation forced the resignation of Chief Executive Stewart Regan and in the aftermath the organization went back to what it knows best - jobs for the boys. Hence the fourteen month fiasco that was Alex McLeish's second spell. Never has the morale of the Tartan Army been so low.

    Going into 2020, the national team feels like it is at a Sliding Doors moment. The Nations League has given us an extra shot at Euro 2020 qualification which depends on beating Israel at home and Norway or Serbia away. Pull it off and he and his side will be heroes. Blow it, missing out on a tournament which includes matches at Hampden itself, and that might finally be it for many fans.

    As for the youngsters, you tell me what's happening there. Mark Wotte was appointed as the first Performance Director in 2011 and was later succeeded by Brian McClair and then the rather controversial Malky Mackay. It seems to me that there have been plenty of decent results by Scottish youth teams in the 2010s but that will matter to no-one if senior results don't improve.


    All in all it feels like the 2010s produced plenty of opportunities both domestically and internationally that have been squandered in favour of the apparently safe status quo. It is often said that one has to run to stand still. Scottish football continues to stand still and wonder why the rest of the world is rushing off into the distance.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  25. hislopsoffsideagain
    PREDICTED LEAGUE POSITION: SIXTH

    LAST SEASON: Eighth, 51pts

    NOTABLE INS: Jake Carroll (Cambridge United), Declan Gallagher (Livingston), Jermaine Hylton (Solihull Moors), Christian Ilic (TSV Hartberg), Christopher Long (Blackpool), Christy Manzinga (RSC Chatelet-Fanciennes), Liam Polworth (Inverness Caledonian Thistle), Sherwin Seedorf (Wolverhampton Wanderers), Casper Sloth (Silkeborg), Devante Cole (Wigan Athletic, loan)

    NOTABLE OUTS: Chris Cadden (Columbus Crew), Shea Gordon (Partick Thistle, loan made permanent), Jake Hastie (Rangers), Danny Johnson (Dundee), Curtis Main (Aberdeen), Carl McHugh (ATK), Neil McLaughlin (Edusport Academy), Alex Rodriguez Gorrin (Oxford United), Rohan Ferguson (Linfield, loan), Tom Aldred (Bury, end of loan), Gboly Ariyibi (Nottingham Forest, end of loan), Ross McCormack (Aston Villa, end of loan), Connor Sammon (Heart of Midlothian, end of loan), Liam Brown, Elliott Frear, Christian Mbulu, George Newell, Aaron Taylor-Sinclair

    LAST SEASON'S BEST XI (Departed players crossed out): Gillespie, Grimshaw, Aldred, Dunne, Tait, Campbell, Rodriguez Gorrin, Turnbull, Ariyibi, Hastie, Main



    When Motherwell's management team signed new contracts this summer, there was much joy amongst the support.

    They might not have felt the same as recently as the end of 2018; the direct and physical - often overly so - play that had taken them to two cup finals the previous season had more than run its course both in terms of its watchability and its results. On Boxing Day, the Steelmen were ninth, only just above the bottom three.

    Over the winter break, they transformed from an ugly caterpillar into a beautiful butterfly. Not only did 'Well start winning, but they did so with panache. No longer did burly targetmen like Curtis Main and Ryan Bowman define the team; now the focus was on fearless youngsters like David Turnbull and Jake Hastie getting the ball down and doing thrilling things with it.

    Sadly Hastie has gone after his contract expired, and Turnbull would have been away too but for a knee injury picked up in his Celtic medical. Motherwell have lost out on £3million as a result, but only temporarily. They will at least get a few more months of their wonderful young midfielder who should return for the second half of the season.

    In the meantime, his absence may not be as damaging as you think. True, they've lost regular starters in Hastie, Chris Cadden (who was injured for most of last season), Alex Rodriguez Gorrin and loanees Tom Aldred and Gboly Ariyibi. But Robinson has never been shy of wheeling and dealing and has brought in ten new players.

    So in defence Declan Gallagher, so solid for Livingston last season, should fill the Aldred gap. Either Peter Hartley or Charles Dunne, who can also play left-back, will partner him. This is probably the weak spot in the side though and if Robinson was to sign one more player it probably would be a central defender.

    There's no such problem at full-back though. Richard Tait is of course more than capable on either side, Liam Grimshaw was converted into a fine right-back last season, and newbie Jake Carroll can compete with Liam Donnelly, back from long-term injury, for the left-back role. In goal, Mark Gillespie took advantage of Trevor Carson's prolonged absence with an arm DVT to make himself first choice keeper. The stats suggest he's a big upgrade over the Northern Irish international.

    There's no shortage of midfield options either even if Turnbull isn't considered. Allan Campbell is a tackling machine, and he'll probably be joined in the middle by Casper Sloth, who might have lost his way in recent years but is still only 27 and has eight caps for Denmark. I say 'probably' because Donnelly played like a boss in that role in the League Cup games and might keep him out of the team.

    A more attacking option is former Inverness assist machine Liam Polworth who should thrive now he's surrounded with better players; the forwards can expect many a defence-splitting through ball from him. Craig Tanner, who hasn't played since March 2018 because of his own injuries, will back up Polworth in that role.

    Out wide the loss of Ariyibi and Hastie has been compensated for by picking up Jermaine Hylton and Sherwin Seedorf from down south and Croatian winger Christian Ilic, who can also play as a left-back. Another new face, Devante Cole, can also play wide but is more suited to being a striker.

    However he may not find many opportunities there unless Motherwell play two up top. It's more likely they'll go for one though. Reputation says Christopher Long should be the favourite given his experience down south but local product James Scott, who doesn't turn 19 for another few weeks, seems to be getting better by the week. If more of an orthodox target man is needed, they can turn to Belgian Christy Manzinga, signed after an audacious overhead kick goal in a friendly.

    And while it might only be the League Cup Group Stages, early signs are encouraging that Robinson is gelling this bunch together. They won all four games, scoring thirteen goals without reply. It might only have been Queen of the South, Morton, Dumbarton and Annan but that was more impressive than most of their peers.

    So what's the target? It's got to be top six. And they're more than capable of managing it. Hopefully they should give us some fun whilst they're at it.


    THEIR BEST XI?



    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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