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Recession vs Depression, what's the odds


Canada Bob

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Looks like things are going from bad to worse in Ireland at least on the economic front.

Jobs are going down the drain on a daily basis, house prices have dropped by as much as 40%, they have at least 6,000 empty new builds that no one wants, the price of stuff in the south is extortionate, so those lucky enough to live near the north do their shopping across the border, saving as much as 60 quid a week on groceries.

It seems that Governments have a formula for declaring a recession, but at what point does a recession become a depression ? or does Gordon {et-al} not want us to talk about that.

I can't see how this situation will turn around, {I'm not saying it won't, every tide turns}, but at a time when Governments don't have any money {except for printing more, that don't help}, and Banks don't have any money, and workers don't have any money, what's going to fuel a turn around.

Looks to me as though some folks will {or already have} become the Super Rich, whilst many who were rich have now done their bollocks in, I'd like to know how much Beckham has lost on the stock markets, and how much just the Premiership players have lost, I'll bet some of them are already in debt, I'd also like to know what Queen Lizzie has done in too, I'd be raising a pint to that...

So it looks to me like this is a real watershed, a bigger shuffling of the cards than anyone could have forecast.

I'm no Ecomomist, mind you those who are don't know what's going on, let alone what's to come, but here's my bet...

I think that Pension plans will start to fail, they won't be able to pay out the money that folks have invested in them, a la Equitable Life, but this time I think most if not all the domino's will fall. If there's an upside to that it's that the folks in Government, and the hangers on, in Town Halls and the like, who were getting 3 quid of tax payers money added on for every 1 quid they contributed to their "pensions" may see it all go up in smoke...

Right now interest rates are on the floor right now as Governments try to take control, but I think this horse is too strong for them, and that it'll all end in tears for the Government and the taxpayers.

At the end of the day some buggers will have salted most of the money away, and they the Super Rich will have the control that the Governments think or hope they have. When the dust settles those who have the money will be persuaded to lend it out, {that would be how they make even more}, but at that point they would be the ones setting the interest rate, and you can bet {with me} that they'll be asking 15% or more.

Those who can't afford it {when they need it} will go to the wall, I believe we will see poverty in the western world, like "we" have never seen before, so best be ready for it, if you have debts pay them off before the sky falls.

If anyone can see an alternative future let me know what you think it'll be, I'm willing to bet on my horse.

Canada Bob.

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Buy Swiss Francs, Buy Norweigan Oil, Buy Russian Gold... Historically 3 markets that react independantly of each other.

Sell FTSE 6 month futures, go on holdiay to the Caribbean till August and come back the richest man in the UK.

Bob, I think things will get to a new all time low, the Bank of England has already started printing money in sums never before imagined, every move twist they take makes the ?10 I've got in my pocket just now worth LESS (and I'll not see a share of the 50billion loan fund).

We're at the tip of the iceberg, I think the scale of what I've been warning about for a while is just coming into the mainstream psyche with the news that the Goverment will take upto the early 2030's to repay its debt and thats if theres enough of us around to pay it off.

I won ?100 on betfair today, a friend of mine who gambles in Euros placed the same bets as me, his moneys worth about 12% more than mine, 6 months ago we wouldve been winning and losing the same.

Some say things cant be that bad while supermarkets are still full (of food, not people) and people still have houses, well I can assure them that big lifestyle changes will have to come into play very soon. How many giant 4x4's and 42 inch tvs do we see on these reposession programs on TV? Maybe if they paid their bills and didnt chase the lifestyle ideals shows like 'a place in the sun' or the various home improvement efforts have been firing at them for 10 years they wouldnt be losing their houses, its almost pornographic watching the sums of money average folks were spending on second homes and cars this past decade.

Everything from the homes we live in, the wages our companies pay us and the products shops are selling, is all paid for with borrowed money. The amount of money Tescos borrows every year insuring its distribution fleet is mindblowing, its all borrowed money, big stores like Debenhams or Marks and Spencer are exactly the same, they dont pay anything to move their products around the country up front.

Big changes are to come and they wont be pretty.

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And personally if I could get out, I would, but theres no way possible for me to do so.

Bob, let me knwo when your laying on your escape sub for the forum and I'll put my name down for a ticket :lol I dont fancy hanging around when the race riots and violent crime start spreading with the summer heat waves..

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Hello Clacher...

I doubt that anyone knows how deep the shyte is, or how many folks will finish up in it, nice to see some folks sliding down the snakes back though aint it.

I can't figure out how houses in Wigan {including the one I bought 10 years ago for 100k} were selling for 300k or more 6 years later. I'm glad I got out at the right time, I didn't think they were worth that much, certainly not when you compare like for like Wigin vs Nova Scotia, but if they are shoving the money into yer hand what can you do ?

It seemd to me that the prices folks were putting on the value of their property {and other supposed assets} exceeded the amount of money in circulation. What I'm saying is, if we all sold our homes for what we thought {or the market told us} they were worth, there'd simply wouldn't be enough pound notes in the country to cover the purchases.

The housing market was just indicative of money being under valued, a lot of folks also thought they were worth more than their labours produced, typically folks working anywhere between Whitehall and Town Hall.

Just after WWII the Government employed around 10% of the work force, now it's around 40%, the problem is few if any of these folks actually produce anything that we could export to support the pound notes.

Folks have been clambering onto this band wagon for the last 30 years, one Gov dept spawning off another, all on good money demanding pensions that the rest of us could only dream of.

Pensions where a Town Hall employee who contributed a quid expected and got 3 quid thrown into the hat thanks to the ratepayers/taxpayers. This side of Ladbrokes how can the rest of us get a immediate return like that.

Anway I've railed about that for years now, to no avail, but it's nice to see it all coming unstuck now...

My theology is, if you get a quid that you haven't earned {and your doing it on a regular basis}, you have inflated yourself and devalued the money that the real workers, or pensioners etc depend on, the end run is everyone {well near everyone} finishes up in the shyte...

All of the above though is behind us now, if we could see what's now coming we could profit from it, or at least protect ourselves from what's to come.

I'm convinced that the desperate measures taken by governments around the world to float a recovery on low interest rates will come unstuck, the end result will be interest rates of 15% or maybe double that before things start to turn around.

My concern is that folks with mortgages or other debts at this point in time may be lulled into a false state of security by carrying on spending. I know that's where governments think the answer lays, but if they have got it wrong {and they often do}, then interest rates will sky rocket, folks in any sort of debt could lose everything.

I think we're entering a desperate time, a time where it's better for folks to think for themselves rather than follow like lambs {to a potential slaughter}.

No one knows how this situation will unfold, but it's a bit easier to figure out a strategy to lessen your exposure to it.

My bet is, when the governments have failed to float the economy, and when they have lost the taxpayers money, the shyte will really hit the fan. The government and the taxpayers will be skint, the Banks already are, and companies are either laying off or falling like domino's already. There's just one player left at the tables, the Politicians playing with the taxpayers money, would you want to bet your future on them ?

It's just a matter of time before they blow it, at that point whoever we are betting against will have all the money, and at that point it won't be The Bank of England {or anywhere else} telling you what the interest rates are, it'll be some gnome in some place, lending you your money back. By the time this has all ended Fagin will look like Father f'in Christmas...

Canada Bob.

Edited by Canada Bob
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Guest TheFalcon

Quoting Harry Truman, the difference between the two (recession vs depression) is,

"A recession is when your neighbour loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours".

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