Getting lost in the maths

[RiG]

Just beat Dunfermline and see what the results are then if we have to beat Ayr. Both games are going to be damn difficult so one game at a time eh guys?

[Scotty]

If we beat Dunfermline and Dundee don't beat Morton we can't be caught by Dundee.

If we beat Dunfermline and County don't beat Airdrie we can't be caught by County.

If we beat Dunfermline we can't be caught by County - regardless of their result - unless they improve their goal difference by 26 !

[CaleyD]

Ever get the feeling an explanation was going to need pictures for it to be properly understood?

[BornCaley]

Its similar to who qualifies for the Europa League..so many opinions scenarios...its brain melting

Lets all just wait and see...tick tock tick tock

[Scotty]

The suggestion I like best is for us just to win all three of our games then no-one can catch us and we dont have to worry about maths .... just beer :wacko:

[Phill]

If results go our way on saturday (shown here as a Dundee loss and County draw):

ICT - P34 - 67pts. Possible maximum is 73pts

DFC - P33 - 57pts. Possible maximum is 66pts

RC. - P31 - 50pts. Possible maximum is 65pts.

A Dundee draw and a County win would leave both able to get 67pts, so although we'd only need a point to win it, or just not concede a silly amount of goals in the remaining games the title wouldn't be wrapped up this weekend, although it could be over with before we play again.

ICT - P34 - 67pts. Possible maximum is 73pts

DFC - P33 - 58pts. Possible maximum is 67pts

RC. - P31 - 52pts. Possible maximum is 67pts.

Still have to beat Dunfermline first though for either of those scenarios to count. Worst case scenario is this:

ICT - P34 - 64pts. Possible maximum is 70pts

DFC - P33 - 60pts. Possible maximum is 69pts

RC. - P31 - 52pts. Possible maximum is 67pts.

Hope that helps (and also by unlurking I haven't jinxed this weekend!).

[+DoofersDad]

At this stage of the season last year it looked as though staying up was a formality. Buthcher needs to forget about the goal difference and just make sure we win our next two games. Remember that if Dundee or County catch us it will be because we are losing matches and as a result our goal difference will get worse. It is very unlikely our goal difference will be bettered but lets not risk it. I see no reason why the attitude will not be right on Saturday and I expect us to win by at least 2 goals.

A win against the Pars will secure the title if Dundee lose and County don't win.

A win against both the Pars and Ayr clinches it whatever anybody else does.

[CaleyD]

Are you sure?

[ICTPaisley]

I really hope Dundee don't lose and we win on saturday, I know it sounds terrible but i want to see us winning the league. Whether its at Ayr or on the last day of the season. Dundee to draw on Saturday and us to win. Leaving it upto goal difference against Ayr will do nicely.

[ICTPaisley]

Dundee lose on saturday, County draw or lose and we win - the league is ours mathematically

Dundee draw on saturday and we win - the league is ours on goal difference and if Dundee then draw or lose midweek to Raith and the league is ours before Ayr

[TSTtiger]

Dundee lose on saturday, County draw or lose and we win - the league is ours mathematically

Dundee draw on saturday and we win - the league is ours on goal difference and if Dundee then draw or lose midweek to Raith and the league is ours before Ayr

dundee lose, we win, = title. county out of it as long as we win and barring goal difference miracle.

anyone care to do a flow chart?

[+DoofersDad]

Dundee lose on saturday, County draw or lose and we win - the league is ours mathematically

Dundee draw on saturday and we win - the league is ours on goal difference and if Dundee then draw or lose midweek to Raith and the league is ours before Ayr

dundee lose, we win, = title. county out of it as long as we win and barring goal difference miracle.

anyone care to do a flow chart?

No flow charts at this time of night.

If we and county win on saturday we will have 67 points. If county win their remaining 6 games including the one on saturday they will have 67 points.

For the sake of argument lets say we beat the pars by a single goal and then lose to Ayr by 2 and then, heaven forbid, get humped by dundee with a 3 goal deficit. The net result of that is that our goal difference goes down to +26.

County's GD is currently +5 so they would need to get up to +27 to beat us. That is a total of plus 22 in 6 games. 6 games where the average margain of victory is 3.5 goals is highly unlikely but possible. Therefore if dundee lose on Saturday but County and Caley both win, the title will still not be ours. However, I think it would be certain enough to be an excuse to open some bubbly and then one can open some more when it becomes mathematically certain.

[CELTIC1CALEY3]

What happens if Dunfermline win 2-0 and Dundee win 1-0?

[PullMyFinger]

42

[tm4tj]

Here we see junior staff members at the SFA working out the league positions relative to games played and goal difference.

The projected final table should look something like this

[Johnboy]

The final game of the season would be interesting if Dundee were 3 points behind us going into the game and needed to win by something like 18 goals to lift the title.

It would be a nail-biting afternoon, but I think our lads would be able to handle it!

[gordyfromsneck]

If Dundee lose on Saturday, the only way we would lose the league, would be on goal difference.

[Scotty]

If Dundee lose on Saturday, the only way we would lose the league, would be on goal difference.

not quite. If Dundee lose (or draw) on Saturday, their possible maximum points goes down from 69 to 66 (or 67 if they draw). We are currently on 64 so if we lost too then we could still be caught by both County and Dundee.

The perfect scenario for us on Saturday is for us to win against the Pars (no easy task) and to hope that Dundee lose or draw against Morton. If that happens we can only be equalled on points and no-one will catch us on GD.

[Council Juice]

Lets just keep it simple and just keep winning.

But we need a max of a win and a draw to rule County out and a max of 2 wins to rule Dundee out. So it's till the case of win 2 out of 3 and we are champions. Well we could win 1 and draw against Dundee and we'd win also but that would scare me shitless after last season.

Nope 2 wins and a final day trophy collection will do me fine.

[gordyfromsneck]

If Dundee lose on Saturday, the only way we would lose the league, would be on goal difference.

not quite. If Dundee lose (or draw) on Saturday, their possible maximum points goes down from 69 to 66 (or 67 if they draw). We are currently on 64 so if we lost too then we could still be caught by both County and Dundee.

The perfect scenario for us on Saturday is for us to win against the Pars (no easy task) and to hope that Dundee lose or draw against Morton. If that happens we can only be equalled on points and no-one will catch us on GD.

You're right Scotty. My calculator, or brain must need new batteries. Still a few ifs and buts then...

It would be great to go into next season carrying an unbeaten run.

[Kingsmills]

The bottom line is that if we win on saturday and Dundee fail to win it would take an extraordinary sequence of results to deprive us of the title. In effect we would be champions in all but name.

If we win and Dundee lose with County not winning, whether they lose or draw, we will in fact be champions. The champagne corks could well be popping at the TCS by ten to five on Saturday.

The vital part of the equation is that we take care of the one thing in our own hands by beating the Pars !

[ICTPaisley]

If we win the league on saturday will we be presented the title then? Or will it be given on the last day of the season against Dundee regardless.

[Kingsmills]

If we win the league on saturday will we be presented the title then? Or will it be given on the last day of the season against Dundee regardless.

The latter. Those old enough to recall our Third Division triumph will remember that we had the title wrapped up well before the end of the season but the trophy was actually presented only at the end of the final game. As I recall Forfar rained on that particulae parade by beating us something like 4-1.

[IMMORTAL HOWDEN ENDER]

If we beat Dumbfarmlife I am going to get pisshed - If we draw or lose I am going to get pisshed.

If we win and Dundee draw or lose I am going to get Pisshder.

[Queen Beastie]

If we win the league on saturday will we be presented the title then? Or will it be given on the last day of the season against Dundee regardless.

The latter. Those old enough to recall our Third Division triumph will remember that we had the title wrapped up well before the end of the season but the trophy was actually presented only at the end of the final game. As I recall Forfar rained on that particulae parade by beating us something like 4-1.

Yes but if my memory serves me correctly that was the season Forfar pipped County to 2nd place on goal difference and those 4 goals against us were pretty important. Not that I'm offering up any conspiricy theories or anything :tonguecheek: