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The Big Scottish Independence Debate


Laurence

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That's interesting, Scarlet, some newspapers over here were reporting that the ship could likely run into the UK! I just find it amazing that A ship of that size can 'go missing'!The Daily Mail's hysterical headline: Could this Russian ghost ship infested with CANNIBAL RATS beach in Britain? Experts fear storms have driven abandoned cruise liner towards land after Canadian tow ship lost it a YEAR ago.

 

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I'll be away for a few days...... In fact one area where I actually agree with CB is that the worst has yet to come so maybe we should all take an extended holiday.....

One nugget from today's Herald before I go:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/revealed-the-foreign-office-devo-units-drive-to-kill-off-independence.23269484?utm_source=headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email%2Balert

It's only a vote between Scots? Aye right!

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And as the British government enlists the help of foreign governments to work against Scottish independence, some interesting new data in the latest poll:

 

ICM/ Scotland on Sunday

Stated preference Yes 46% No 54%
All respondents Yes 37% No 44% Undecided 19% 

ALEX Salmond is within reach of victory in the independence referendum, according to an exclusive poll showing that support for the cause has grown dramatically by five percentage points over the last four months.

The largest swing towards a Yes vote recorded so far in the campaign is revealed today in an ICM survey for Scotland on Sunday, which has found that support for independence has grown from 32 per cent to 37 per cent since September.

The surge in those backing Yes was accompanied by a corresponding drop in No support by five percentage points from 49 per cent in September to 44 per cent currently.

The poll also found that when the 19 per cent who said they didn’t know how they would vote were excluded, support for Yes is at 46 per cent compared with 54 per cent who said they would vote No.

There was more good news for Yes Scotland, when the “don’t knows” were pressed further on their views on independence. When they disclosed how they were “most likely” to vote, the results were factored into the equation and the pollsters found that support for independence stood at 47 per cent compared with 53 per cent in favour of No.

The figures represent the largest backing for Yes to be recorded in an independently-commissioned survey and are the first clear sign that support for breaking up the UK is growing after months of stagnating polls.

Were the progress recorded over the last four months to be replicated in the eight months remaining until the September 18 referendum, the first minister could succeed in his dream of creating an independent Scotland.

The poll of more than 1,000 over-16s was conducted by ICM for Scotland on Sunday between Tuesday and Friday.

Last night, the Yes campaign suggested that the launch of the Scottish Government’s white paper offering a blueprint for independence in November has resulted in a game-changing bounce for #independence.

Blair Jenkins, chief executive of Yes Scotland, said: “A potential Yes vote of 47 per cent at this stage is an excellent place to be with eight months to go. It demonstrates very clearly that we are getting our message across and that momentum is very much on our side.

“The poll represents a very significant swing to Yes and shows that we need just over a 3 per cent swing to take the lead. It is particularly encouraging that there is a five-point increase in support from women and a four-point rise in the number of people who believe independence will be good for the economy is also a welcome shift in our favour.

“We know that the more people learn about the benefits of independence the more likely they are to vote Yes.

“People are now also carefully weighing up the consequences and costs of a No vote and, as a result, support for Yes increases. The referendum is about two choices. One is sticking with a Westminster system that isn’t working for Scotland. The other is a unique opportunity to make decisions that match our own needs and priorities, to better use our vast wealth and resources for the benefit of all people in Scotland and to build a fairer country of which we can all be proud.”

A spokesman for Better Together, the pro-Union campaign, said: “Despite Alex Salmond spending millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money, the majority of people in Scotland don’t want to trade the strength and security of the UK for the risk and uncertainty of independence. We will campaign tirelessly between now and September to convince those who have yet to make up their mind that we are stronger and better together. This poll is a message that there can be no complacency from those who support Scotland remaining in the UK.”

Plans to increase childcare provision for working mothers were at the heart of the white paper, a move that was seen as a bid to make independence more attractive to women.

The SNP’s failure to win over women has long been seen as an Achilles’ heel of the party, yet today’s poll shows that female support has grown significantly. The percentage of women prepared to vote Yes has grown from 28 per cent in September to 33 per cent.

The economy also emerged as a key issue and is another area in which Yes Scotland makes progress.

In September, 31 per cent of those polled by ICM thought that independence would benefit the economy. Today that figure has increased to 35 per cent.

The percentage of people who felt that independence would be bad for the economy has also decreased, from 48 per cent to 42 per cent.

The SNP has argued that independence would offer the chance to create a more equal society in Scotland.

According to the poll, the proportion of people who believe that there would be less inequality in an independent Scotland has increased from 27 per cent to 31 per cent.

Those who believed that there would be more inequality rose slightly from 20 per cent to 21 per cent. Those who thought independence would make no difference to inequality fell from 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

Better Together has made much of the uncertainty over pensions that it claims would result from the dismantling of the UK. But the poll revealed that the percentage of people who believe that they would have a higher pension in an independent Scotland has increased from 16 per cent to 20 per cent.

A recurring criticism of the Better Together campaign has been that it is failing to set out a positive vision of what would happen to Scotland in the event of a No vote.

Labour and the Conservatives have established commissions to look at whether the Scottish Parliament should be given more powers within the UK. Both parties are due to publish their findings in the spring.

The poll found that the percentage of those who were resisting constitutional change remained constant on 28 per cent. Whereas those who believed Holyrood should become responsible for taxation and welfare increased from 59 per cent to 64 per cent.

John Curtice: Best news on voting intentions the Yes campaign has ever had

TODAY’S ICM poll is the best polling news the Yes side has had yet in the referendum campaign.

Once the Don’t Knows are excluded, 46 per cent think they will vote Yes in September; 54 per cent No.

This is the highest Yes tally in any independently commissioned poll so far. It represents a six-point swing to Yes since last September, the biggest yet in a campaign in which the polls have been remarkably stable. True, there is one word of caution. The swing is entirely confined to those aged 44 and under. All pollsters, including ICM, find it more difficult to get younger voters to answer their questions. Consequently, their estimates of how such voters will behave are more likely to change randomly from one poll to the next.

Even so, there are signs the swing is underpinned by something real. And in line with the message from the Scottish Social Attitudes survey last week, what emerges is that the answer to “What will determine the eventual outcome in September?” is simply: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

In September only 31 per cent thought independence would be good for the economy, while 48 per cent reckoned it would be bad. Now 35 per cent reckon independence would be beneficial while 42 per cent feel it would be deleterious. That represents a five-point swing towards a more optimistic view.

Meanwhile, people’s perceptions are clearly fundamental to their decision whether to vote Yes or No.

No less than 88 per cent of those who think the economy would be better under independence expect to vote Yes, while 87 per cent of those who reckon it would be worse belong to the No camp.

None of the other perceptions tracked by ICM has either shifted as much or obviously matters so much.

True, the proportion who think there would be less inequality in an independent Scotland – one of the Yes side’s key claims – has increased by four points from 27 per cent to 31 per cent. But the proportion who believe it would be more unequal has edged up a point too, to 21 per cent. That means on this issue the swing is just 1.5 per cent.

At the same time, only 63 per cent of those who believe there would be less inequality in an independent Scotland think they will vote Yes, while 63 per cent of those who feel there would be more inequality are inclined to vote No. Both figures are lower than the equivalent ones for the economy.

Meanwhile, the proportion who think pensions would be higher under independence is up four points from 16 per cent to 20 per cent. The proportion who believe they would be lower is down two points to 23 per cent – a swing of three points.

But having a rosy view of the prospects for pensions is an even less powerful recruiting sergeant for the Yes side. Only 58 per cent of those who reckon pensions would be higher think they will vote Yes – though 75 per cent of those who think they would be lower anticipate voting No.

The lesson for the Yes side is clear. Their hopes of winning the referendum rest on their ability to win the economic debate. They may now be a little closer to doing so.

• John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University



http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...poll-1-3281655

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Although I still think the YES campaign will miss out, anecdotally I'm finding more and more people I speak to who are in favour of (or wouldn't rule out) a vote for Independence.

I know it was haggis-day yesterday but this poll was conducted before then! Very much game-on it seems! This thread will be worth watching over the next 8 months...

 

The banter between CB and Oddquine is superb although some of her posts take as long to read as it does to watch Braveheart. :lol:

Where's pull-my-finger gone? Has he changed allegiance, perhaps?!

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Although I still think the YES campaign will miss out, anecdotally I'm finding more and more people I speak to who are in favour of (or wouldn't rule out) a vote for Independence.

I know it was haggis-day yesterday but this poll was conducted before then! Very much game-on it seems! This thread will be worth watching over the next 8 months...

 

The banter between CB and Oddquine is superb although some of her posts take as long to read as it does to watch Braveheart. :lol:

Where's pull-my-finger gone? Has he changed allegiance, perhaps?!

Oddquine is fatally verbose (and opinionated, nit-picking and pedantic)! :blush: 

 

What you get is my post having spent ages researching it, even longer writing it.....and then a while cutting it down, removing the swearie words and most of the personal abuse.........and it is still as long as a short story!  Sorry, peeps.........but it could be worse! :blush:  

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:rotflmao:   http://wingsoverscotland.com/sometimes-you-have-to-write-things-down/

 

And for those who won't read wings on principle........you really mustn't miss this (if only for the fact that it almost looked like Gary Robertson was insisting on a real answer to his question, for once) 

 

 


GARY ROBERTSON: When we look at the experience of other countries, I mean, you say in your article ‘Young people fear an independent Scotland would be a narrowing, not a broadening experience’. Could you point to a country that’s gained independence where that’s been the case?

DOUGLAS ALEXANDER: Well actually we’re in a distinctive position, in the sense we’re a historic nation but we’re part of a multicultural, multinational, multi-ethnic country, and -

ROBERTSON: Yeah, but I’m asking you to back up this claim that an independent Scotland would be a narrowing not a broadening experience. Which country has that been the case in?

ALEXANDER: Well, look at the study that was undertaken that your own package quoted from Edinburgh University, where overwhelmingly, young people made clear that they wanted to be part of something bigger, as well as feeling great pride in what they’re part of here in Scotland, as part of their Scottish identity.

So actually, for me, there isn’t a choice between being comfortable in that expansiveness, you can support, Rangers, Celtic, St Mirren, you can support Manchester United, Barcelona. That’s this young generation – they feel that they can have it all.

Best bits come in some of the comments, though.......including this wee gem..... Forever known as the ‘St Mirren argument’, that is a person talking “mince” in answering a question.

 

And just watched the whole clip..and swelp me.....Gary Robertson asked another difficult.(for the BBC) question about guarantees of more devolution if there is a NO vote....but let Alexander off without getting any answers..so not that much change there then! 

 

But Douglas Alexander does talk a lot of mince when avoiding having to answer questions!  Ach,.he talks a lot of mince most of the time!

Edited by Oddquine
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Love it!  I'm nicking it for my avatar on some forums!

 

Of course there are no CyberBrits.  Nobody on the side of the Union writes nasty comments every time a YES supporter comments on the garbage in the media, which passes for reporting on the "debate". 

 

Bet this laddie would beg to differ  http://thetarge.co.uk/article/current-affairs/0045/a-response-to-my-question-time-critics

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When Wendy's brother mentioned supporting Man U and Barcelona, was he suggesting in an independent Scotland you won't be able to? Every time I see him I'm sure his eyes glaze over as the chip in his head activates and out comes the party line.

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Although I still think the YES campaign will miss out, anecdotally I'm finding more and more people I speak to who are in favour of (or wouldn't rule out) a vote for Independence.

I know it was haggis-day yesterday but this poll was conducted before then! Very much game-on it seems! This thread will be worth watching over the next 8 months...

 

The banter between CB and Oddquine is superb although some of her posts take as long to read as it does to watch Braveheart. :lol:

Where's pull-my-finger gone? Has he changed allegiance, perhaps?!

 

Every time I read a post by CB I leer further into the BT camp but as I have dumped SNP for UKIP BT won't have me.

 

Not!

Time is more productive spent elsewhere

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Mark Carney visits Edinburgh - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25930075

 

A sterling currency zone would be like any other international agreement - you give up some sovereignty for benefits gained.  It's up to people to judge if the benefits are worth the sacrifice.  I'm not sure that independence with another country deciding your monetary policy is exactly worth it.

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Mark Carney visits Edinburgh - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25930075

 

A sterling currency zone would be like any other international agreement - you give up some sovereignty for benefits gained.  It's up to people to judge if the benefits are worth the sacrifice.  I'm not sure that independence with another country deciding your monetary policy is exactly worth it.

Ah..but a currency agreement is an agreement......and like all other agreements, it is mutually beneficial (if the negotiators have intelligence greater than that of a haggis) and it only lasts as long as it works. 

 

It has always seemed to me the sensible option, because I'm sure we have all seen what happens when you feel obliged to rush things.....you only have to look at many Coalition Laws/decisions since 2010 as illustration.

 

I think we should have our own currency, but with only 18 months from negotiation to Independence Day, a lot of negotiations to get done in that time, and a lot of essential services to set up/sort out, seems sensible to leave less essential things on the back burner.....and if we are being honest even a currency agreement isn't essential. We don't have one now, do we...but the BOE sets our monetary policy....and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it....and we don't even have the fiscal powers to ameliorate the effects of that policy on our economy as we are.....but independent, with or without a currency agreement....that would change. 

 

The biggest problem, as I see it, wouldn't be Scotland's ability to manage our economy sensibly to the satisfaction of the BOE/rUK, but Westminster's propensity to not manage theirs. :wink:

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Mark Carney visits Edinburgh - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25930075

 

A sterling currency zone would be like any other international agreement - you give up some sovereignty for benefits gained.  It's up to people to judge if the benefits are worth the sacrifice.  I'm not sure that independence with another country deciding your monetary policy is exactly worth it.

What Mr Carney seems to be saying is that the Romans have been rather busier than the People's Front of Caledonia would have us believe.

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Mark Carney visits Edinburgh - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25930075

 

A sterling currency zone would be like any other international agreement - you give up some sovereignty for benefits gained.  It's up to people to judge if the benefits are worth the sacrifice.  I'm not sure that independence with another country deciding your monetary policy is exactly worth it.

What Mr Carney seems to be saying is that the Romans have been rather busier than the People's Front of Caledonia would have us believe.

 

http://derekbateman1.wordpress.com/2014/01/29/preparing-for-change/

 

 

 

But do you know what the real gain was from today? It wasn’t the detail and technicalities of monetary union and shared currency or even if it is the best option for Scotland. It was seeing the Governor of the Bank of England standing up in Edinburgh and telling us how a currency might/might not work in an independent Scotland. This is the stuff of nationalist dreams…like the British Prime Minister coming to Edinburgh to sign an agreement to recognise our independence in the event on one single Scot more than the No side voting Yes. These are momentous and historic times. What these events do is normalise the concept in the public imagination of our country becoming independent. It is no longer a pipe dream…no longer an idea to be scoffed at and dismissed. It is mainstream. It is bringing London’s big guns to Scotland to meet the elected Nationalist leader of our country and treating him as an equal.

 

http://derekbateman1.wordpress.com/2014/01/29/whod-want-to-share-anything-with-this-lot/

 

 

 

I thought Carney laid out almost word for word what is in the White Paper and poor old Alistair Darling is showing why he has gone down as the (second) worst Chancellor in history by declaring that a monetary union which he himself endorsed is a non-starter. They keep asking what the alternative is. Wouldn’t they get a shock if Salmond told them it was our own currency and we were out of sterling. How fast do you think they can back-pedal? A bucketload of metropolitan arrogance and automatic assumptions of self-justification from the British media tonight – enough to make even Don’t Knows say: If that’s what they really think of us, time to get out.
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Mark Carney visits Edinburgh - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25930075

 

A sterling currency zone would be like any other international agreement - you give up some sovereignty for benefits gained.  It's up to people to judge if the benefits are worth the sacrifice.  I'm not sure that independence with another country deciding your monetary policy is exactly worth it.

What Mr Carney seems to be saying is that the Romans have been rather busier than the People's Front of Caledonia would have us believe.

 

Nope...what he's saying is that the Romans have been busier than the Romans would have us believe! :rolleyes:   Mr Carney wouldn't be up here saying anything at all if he hadn't been allowed to say it. 

 

Have to admit, though, that I almost prefer Project Fear if the alternative is Project Love Bomb.....if Barrowman was the first effort........it is going to be boak-making!

 

Was really impressed at the way Mr Carney didn't allow the TV folk and journalists to put words in his mouth, as well! Bet they went away spitting nails to make up headlines!

Edited by Oddquine
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http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/why-an-independent-scotland-could-become-the-richest-country-on-earth-9096120.html

 

Just what I've been saying....(more or less...kinda! :blush:

 

Not so much the richest country on earth OTT stuff though...though it would be nice.....but cutting back on the internal public empire building so beloved of Westminster Parliaments..small may not be beautiful...but it is more controllable. (could be describing me, in fact :tongue:

 

There were 98 unelected special advisers in 2012 (only 19 on a pay scale in which they might earn less than an MSP), at approaching seven and a half a million in wages altogether ...and what for...policies which haven't met any of the promises made before 2010.....plus 650 elected MPs and about 800 unelected Lords......costing a total for basic salaries/entitlements alone (assuming only half the Lords turn up every day to claim) £66,369,800...about the same amount as they.will save the luxury Bond Street retailers in business rates by putting off the revaluation of business properties until 2017.

 

Seems a lot of money to pay a coterie of bloated incompetent nincompoops to govern the UK......badly!  (And a bit thick that small businesses have to struggle until 2017 while the likes of Chanel and Burberry get a tax break out of it.)  Who was it who said "we're all in this together" ?

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Mark Carney visits Edinburgh - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25930075

 

A sterling currency zone would be like any other international agreement - you give up some sovereignty for benefits gained.  It's up to people to judge if the benefits are worth the sacrifice.  I'm not sure that independence with another country deciding your monetary policy is exactly worth it.

What Mr Carney seems to be saying is that the Romans have been rather busier than the People's Front of Caledonia would have us believe.

 

Nope...what he's saying is that the Romans have been busier than the Romans would have us believe! :rolleyes:   Mr Carney wouldn't be up here saying anything at all if he hadn't been allowed to say it. 

 

Have to admit, though, that I almost prefer Project Fear if the alternative is Project Love Bomb.....if Barrowman was the first effort........it is going to be boak-making!

 

Was really impressed at the way Mr Carney didn't allow the TV folk and journalists to put words in his mouth, as well! Bet they went away spitting nails to make up headlines!

 

 

I'm backtracking........bring on Project Love Bomb.....it will raise my blood pressure less than Project Fear.

 

Does anyone think that, at some stage before September, Better Together is going to start listening to what gets said, instead of burying its collective heads in the sand and allowing their anal orifices to repeat the interminable spinning ordure to which we have been subjected since 2011?

 

http://bettertogether.net/blog/entry/fact-checked-13-of-the-snps-craziest-currency-claims

 

Better Together wouldn't recognise a fact if it grew teeth and bit them on the bahookey!   

 

http://archive.is/vcQ78  (Financial Times)    and pretty pictures from http://wingsoverscotland.com/unleashing-a-firestorm/

 

The basic fact is that Scotland came into the Union with no National debt.......and Scotland had no part in building up the UK Debt mountain to use for our own purposes........every penny of it was borrowed by Westminster to fund Westminster policies. If we'd had any say.in anything, we'd have better roads, less poverty, more industry, oil rigs near Faslane, no bedroom tax,no trashing of the poorest, the under 25s and the disabled and no tax breaks for the rich while we are doing that trashing, no illegal unjustified wars to sook up to the USA and NO TRIDENT!  The fact is that we are part of a Union with a Government which couldn't organise a party in a brewery and ensure everybody gets a fair share of the booze, as they are so busy dishing it out to the Government and Corporate alkies from London and the South of England. 

 

Nobody has said.....‘An independent Scotland will refuse to take on any national debt if the UK refuses to share the pound’..but what has been said is that if we get a share of the Debt..we are entitled to a share of the assets, which includes the Bank of England which is the UK's National Bank, and the Mint, which is the UK's Mint.. Seems only fair that if we have to pay out for something we had nothing to do with and no say in, we should also get a share of the assets we help/helped buy, maintain and run. Simples! 

Edited by Oddquine
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Well - George Galloway (of the Just say Naw campaign) on Scotland Tonight last night probably did more harm than good - to the together cause.

 

He's mad!

It's at times like this that Better Together could do with nutters like Willie Bell to counterbalance complete tubes such as Galloway. :laugh:

 

Oh well - I suppose Mike Russell is at least still on the go :amazed:

 

 

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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Well - George Galloway (of the Just say Naw campaign) on Scotland Tonight last night probably did more harm than good - to the together cause.

 

He's mad!

It's at times like this that Better Together could do with nutters like Willie Bell to counterbalance complete tubes such as Galloway. :laugh:

 

Oh well - I suppose Mike Russell is at least still on the go :amazed:

 

Who is Willie Bell?  :unsure:

 

When did Mike Russell get involved with Better Together, if you mean the Mike Russell I think you mean? 

 

What was the point of your quoted post?

 

And, as I'm in a question asking mood....if Scotland votes NO....

 

With the Government and UKIP squaring up to the European Union, and a promised referendum, will the UK remain a member of the EU?

 

With Westminster politicians threatening to uproot the Barnett formula and cut Scottish funding by £4 billion, how secure are Scottish finances after a No vote?

 

Will the UK  still be one of the most unequal countries in the developed world?

 

Can Scotland trust Westminster to deliver any further devolution, given that depends on the votes of the UK Parliament? In fact, can it be trusted not to roll back devolution altogether, as has been mooted by some?

 

And, finally...... regarding the prospect of a currency union.or even just using sterling unilaterally..... If it is “not independence”, as many No campaigners claim, then surely many unionists will feel able to vote for it..and if not.why not?

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Well - George Galloway (of the Just say Naw campaign) on Scotland Tonight last night probably did more harm than good - to the together cause.

 

He's mad!

It's at times like this that Better Together could do with nutters like Willie Bell to counterbalance complete tubes such as Galloway. :laugh:

 

Oh well - I suppose Mike Russell is at least still on the go :amazed:

 

Who is Willie Bell?  :unsure:

 

When did Mike Russell get involved with Better Together, if you mean the Mike Russell I think you mean? 

 

 

Willie Bell? An Inverness legend in his own lifetime and a genuine local treasure of the early 70s who then shot to further fame on this very forum as a main player in IHE's unforgettable  "GTWB" (Granville, Toich and Willie Bell) stories, inspired by IHE's previous acquaintance with them as a psychiatric nurse at Craig Dunain.

Willie Bell was, how shall I say?, Inverness's sort of prototype, one man Yes Scotland organisation who used to make his kilted way through the town's streets, berating and lambasting English tourists simply for being here. As kids we used to distract him by shouting "hoochhhh!" and get him to chase us instead. Willie was sort of on the Blowing Up Pylons wing of the 1970s separatist movement and actually stood trial along these lines at one point. At one of the 1974 elections he stood for Parliament... sorry Oddquine - "WESTMINSTER! :swear: "   :laugh:   .... under the banner of Fine Gael (but not the Irish version). His election agent on that occasion was another of the GTWB worthies, one Granville "the sheep reversed in my direction m'lud" Paterson and their election office was Willie's flat in Greig St which was raided by the police at least once. Willie obviously didn't have his deposit refunded at the end of the campaign and the point I was making was that since George Galloway - as Maimie suggests - is an obvious liability to the Better Together cause, it's a pity that Willie Bell still isn't around to provide a similar eccentric vote-losing counterbalance on the part of the yessers - but at least there's still Mike Russell......

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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