Projected finish using points-per-game ratio

[Sneckboy]

The top-flight, in its current format (12 teams) is now in its 15th season. Possibly enough to use average points as a guide to final finishing places? Not just for us obviously, but for any club. As these are averages, it could a guide to where a club is likely to finish if they maintain their current ratio.

Yes, I admit it's a rough guide - and flawed by the split (shown by the best-of-the-rest 7th placed average tally being higher than the average for 6th) but it's an interesting table.

 

Our 38 points from 20 games is a fantastic return of 1.9 points per game. Our best ever ratio of 1.53 would 'ordinarily' be sufficient for 4th place but 'only' secured 5th - and our worst (0.97 points) was worthy of 11th, rather than relegation.

 

If we maintained our current 1.9 ratio - on average, we could expect to finish 3rd (72pts), although the vagaries of the league demonstrate that it could be good enough for runner-up, but also 4th!

The shaded blue areas on the graph are what we've already surpassed in this campaign.

Just a bit of fun - let's hope I'm not tempting fate!

 

[PerfICT]

Loving this! My rule of thumb has always been that >1 point a game is enough for survival, ~1.5 for top six and ~2 for Europe: Winners are usually well over 2 points/game. With a few exceptions, this holds true across the seasons shown here and is also uncannily accurate for other leagues too.

 

On Sneckboy's calculation, we'd need ~42 points for top six at the split (33 games).....so a win against Kilmarnock on saturday and a draw at Dundee United in the next few weeks will do the job!

[+DoofersDad]

I note that Celtic need to win all their remaining games to equal last year's points tally.  Looks as though 3rd and particularly 4th and 5th could all end up with significantly more points than usual although the average points per game for the top 6 obviously drops off after the split.  Totals may be high this year because there seem to a lower than average number of draws this season - or am I just imagining it?

 

Interesting that best of the rest in 7th place last season got less points than 11th the year before.  It also demonstates how grim County's position is.  They are currently averaging just 0.55 per game.  In order to get above the worst ever 11th place total they need to average 1.22 for their remaining 18 games and 1.72 to get above the best ever 11th place total.  Round about 1.5 would probably see them avoid the play offs but that is the kind of form which as Sneckboy's chart shows, would normally get you about 4th in the league.

[+HawkeyeTheGnu]

Should the calculations not exclude points deductions? (Hearts 2013/14, Rangers 2011/12, Gretna 2007/08). That would give a more accurate prediction on where footballing performance (as opposed to financial mismanagement) would lead you to end up.

 

Somewhere around 25 points from our last 18 ganmes should see us finish in the top 4 with a bit of luck.

[Sneckboy]

That's a very valid point - I've updated the spreadsheet to include the deducted points.