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Whatever the polls are doing in Scotland, what is remarkable at a UK level is how static the polls have been over the last 6 months.  There seems to have been a very gradual drift away from UKIP but the rest seem to be flat lining (in more ways than one, maybe).

 

I guess the reason for that is that no party or party leader has remotely inspired the voters in the way that has happened North of the border.  Cameron gives the impression that he just assumed the polls would increasingly move back his way when folk woke up to the prospect of red Ed in Downing Street and is now resorting to stupid gimmicks like his proposed law against further tax rises.  Miliband is trying his hardest to look Prime Ministerial but is failing dismally whilst also trying to pull more offers out of the hat.  Clegg meanwhile looks increasingly resigned to his party being all but wiped out despite some pretty decent achievents in the last Parliament keeping the Tories in check.  It looks as though it is between the Tories and Labour with voters voting for the one in order to keep the others out. 

 

I predict a slight shift towards the Tories and Lib Dems before polling day with UKIP polling a little better than the polls predict.

 

I suspect a lot of people have already made their minds up about who they are voting for. Whilst the recent debates have been interesting I don't know how much they are doing to later voting behaviour and indeed perhaps there could be an argument that they may lead to debating fatigue. I suspect the majority of people who will be voting next week have already decided where they will be writing an 'X' on the ballot paper and there will be minimal movement unless there is a significant mistake made in the final few days by one or more of the parties.

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Again the reports are inaccurate. Two well known individuals who have made a habit of following Jim Murphy and rudely and very vocally disrupting his meetings who were until yesterday among the 114,00

Achtung! I actually find it hilarious listening to to the British nationalists continually bleating about the referendum, which they won FFS, and how it's all the SNP are interested in. It goes s

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What aboot the English members of the SNP or those across the UK who would love to vote for the SNP--are they anglophobes too? :blink:

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again.  As an Englishman living in Scotland for the last 40 years I have never encounted any

anglophobia nor do I sense any in the changing political climate.  That may, of course, be because I'm just such a nice person :blush:

 

But why do folk in the rest of the UK not have the opportunity to vote for the SNP?  We have it rammed down out throats that the SNP MPs will be working for improvements in the Westminster system and for progressive policies that will benefit folk throughout the UK.  So if the SNP have something positive to offer voters in the rest of the UK, why are they not giving voters elsewhere in the UK the opportunity to vote for it?  Voting for the SNP would surely be a good vehicle for those disilluisioned with the UK- wide parties and Westminster system to register a protest vote. 

 

Well said from one of the few regular contributors to this thread who is not an SNP supporter who makes positive and constructive comments rather than resorting to to regurgitating illogical and utterly unfounded 'nat bashing' and who is not speaking on the basis of unsustantiated anecdote but decades of personal experience..

 

There is a myth started and perpetuated by those with vested interests including inter alia such unlikely bedfellows as Jim Murphy, Nigel Farage and Boris Johnston t and embraced by the right wing metropolitan press that the referendum debate stirred up hatred of England and the English and bitterly divided families who were riven in two as a result.

 

There is no truth in that whatsoever. Yes the referendum stirred up passion and stimulated political interest and debate and, as is apparent, that has continued through to this General Election but there is no anglophobia and the divorce courts are not overwhelmed with spouses who can no longer stand each other having voted differently nor were the prisons and police cells bursting at the seams with siblings coming to blows.

 

It is a fact that Farage was hounded out of a pub in Edinburgh by protesters during the referendum campaign. I see he was reiterating earlier this week that that was because he is English and was a result of anti English sentiment stirred up by the Yes campaign in general and the SNP in particular. Also, in the months leading up to the referendum more than a hundred thousand English men and women attended the Edinburgh Festival in that self same city. Just how many of them were hounded as a result of their nationality ?

 

Could it just be that Farage being treated as he was had nothing to do with his country of birth and everything to do with the fact that he is the high profile publicity seeking, grubby little, narrow minded, xenophobic, racist leader of a grubby little, narrow minded,xenophobic racist little political party, who thankfully, barely register on the Scottish political radar ?

 

It is perfectly legitimate, on political grounds to dislike the SNP for what they propose or to disagree with any or all of their policies or take issue with their record in government at Holyrood but accusing them of anti English sentiment or being home to hoards of anglophobes is sheer fantasy.

 

There are now literally thousands of SNP members and tens if not hundreds of thousands of those intending to vote SNP next week who were born in England but choose to make their domicile in Scotland. Why on earth would they support a party who's fellow members detest them ?

 

So, can we please put this ridiculous myth to bed.

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What aboot the English members of the SNP or those across the UK who would love to vote for the SNP--are they anglophobes too? :blink:

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again.  As an Englishman living in Scotland for the last 40 years I have never encounted any

anglophobia nor do I sense any in the changing political climate.  That may, of course, be because I'm just such a nice person :blush:

 

But why do folk in the rest of the UK not have the opportunity to vote for the SNP?  We have it rammed down out throats that the SNP MPs will be working for improvements in the Westminster system and for progressive policies that will benefit folk throughout the UK.  So if the SNP have something positive to offer voters in the rest of the UK, why are they not giving voters elsewhere in the UK the opportunity to vote for it?  Voting for the SNP would surely be a good vehicle for those disilluisioned with the UK- wide parties and Westminster system to register a protest vote. 

 

Well said from one of the few regular contributors to this thread who is not an SNP supporter who makes positive and constructive comments rather than resorting to to regurgitating illogical and utterly unfounded 'nat bashing'.

 

There is a myth started and perpetuated by those with vested interests including inter alia such unlikely bedfellows as Jim Murphy, Nigel Farage and Boris Johnston that and embraced by the right wing metropolitan press that the referendum debate stirred up hatred of England and the English and bitterly divided families who were riven in two as a result.

 

There is no truth in that whatsoever. Yes the referendum stirred up passion and stimulated political interest and debate and, as is apparent, that has continued through to this General Election but there is no anglophobia and the divorce courts are not overwhelmed with spouses who can no longer stand each other having voted differently nor were the criminal courts burdened with siblings coming to blows.

 

It is perfectly legitimate, on political grounds to dislike the SNP for what they propose or to disagree with any or all of their policies or take issue with their record in government at Holyrood but accusing them of anti English sentiment or being home to hoards of anglophobes is sheer fantasy.

 

There are now literally thousands of SNP members and tens if not hundreds of thousands of those intending to vote SNP next week who were born in England but choose to make their domicile in Scotland. Why on earth would they support a party who's fellow members detest them ?

 

So, can we please put this ridiculous myth to bed.

 

 

 

But CB met Willie Bell once in the 60s doon the Bumbers Laney and he pure shoogled his walking stick at him.  :sad:

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Whatever the polls are doing in Scotland, what is remarkable at a UK level is how static the polls have been over the last 6 months.  There seems to have been a very gradual drift away from UKIP but the rest seem to be flat lining (in more ways than one, maybe).

 

I guess the reason for that is that no party or party leader has remotely inspired the voters in the way that has happened North of the border.  Cameron gives the impression that he just assumed the polls would increasingly move back his way when folk woke up to the prospect of red Ed in Downing Street and is now resorting to stupid gimmicks like his proposed law against further tax rises.  Miliband is trying his hardest to look Prime Ministerial but is failing dismally whilst also trying to pull more offers out of the hat.  Clegg meanwhile looks increasingly resigned to his party being all but wiped out despite some pretty decent achievents in the last Parliament keeping the Tories in check.  It looks as though it is between the Tories and Labour with voters voting for the one in order to keep the others out. 

 

I predict a slight shift towards the Tories and Lib Dems before polling day with UKIP polling a little better than the polls predict.

I heard a very interesting interview yesterday with one of the leading polsters who was saying that, although the polls in England and Wales appeared static, that in fact there was quite a deal of shifting between the main two parties but that the numbers shifting from Labour to Conservative were very similar indeed to those being swayed in the opposite direction so, despite the fact that the headline figures appear not to be budging, there is considerable underlying volatility.

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Just about the only thing that is clear in this election is that the only party that will be able to call it a resounding success is the SNP.  Not just because of the remarkable number of seats they will gain, but because of the likely UK outcomes.  We will probably get either:
 

  • The SNP pulling the strings of an unstable Labour-led coalition with the weakest PM ever, gaining concession after concession, and with the added bonus of stirring up resentment elsewhere in the UK, or
  • A Tory led government with little or no representation up here, which again suits the SNP's ultimate aim, and with the added bonus of an EU referendum which will be used as the flimsy justification needed for the next Indy referendum.

What's not to like?!  :blink:

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What happens in England that will determine the government

 

Only if England votes in a majority of one party, Laurence...............if they don't, what determines the Government will be alliances/accommodations/arrangements etc with each other........ or with the smaller parties to take one of them comfortably over the half way point.   England didn't determine the Government in 2010 after all......the LibDems did really, because despite talking to Labour first, they plumped for propping up the Tories.

 

For those of you who won't read the likes of Wings, Bella or the WGD on  pro-union principle.......Alex Massie has an almost decent blog article in the Speccy.......

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2015/04/labours-demise-in-scotland-is-a-problem-for-the-tories-too-they-just-dont-know-it-yet/

 

This present crisis – make no mistake, regardless of what happens at Westminster next month, this election is a disaster for Unionism – has many fathers and some mothers too. It is foolish to blame it on either the Tory or Labour tribes alone (For all her many achievements Mrs Thatcher, I am afraid, played her own part in bringing us to this moment.)

 

It is even more foolish – from a Unionist perspective – to try and use this crisis for short-term political advantage. Yet that is what is happening. It is a troubling thing and, viewed from the north, perhaps the most grimly troubling thing of all is that people in the south still seem unaware the Union can be imperilled in London just as surely as it is threatened in Scotland.

 

Friends? Well, the Union has precious few of them these days. Repairing this breach will require quantities of tact, patience and generosity that seem far beyond anything available right now.

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Correct Laurence...ye cannae teach yir granny tae suck eggs..........but you can point out to her which ones she's able to suck and which ones could be harmful to her freedom and health. You can also point out that its sometimes safer to clean up the ones she can suck before actually doing so.

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Jesus wept.............isn't this a Scottish Labour Party which knows they have nothing to say regarding policies, because even if they get 59 MPs into Westminster, they have to toe the UK Party line, not walk a Scottish one...........so they intend to finish their "campaign"  as they have been conducting it all the way along....fighting against the two things which aren't in the SNP GE2015 manifesto......Independence and FFA.  

 

https://commonspace.scot/articles/1221/scottish-labour-confirms-clock-is-ticking-ge2015-leaflet-is-official

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fighting against the two things which aren't in the SNP GE2015 manifesto......Independence and FFA.  

 

That was what the Greeks wanted the Trojans to think about the horse!

 

But never mind - one thing has become totally unambiguous over the last 24 hours.... the Scottish Sun supports the SNP :cheer01:

With friends like that, who needs enemies?! On May 8th look for the "It's The Sun Wot Won It" headline

 

Now the Sun south of the border actually says it supports the Tories in order to restrict the influence of the SNP but I suppose many Sunreaders will very probably miss that particular subtle nuance.

 

But anyway, I do look forward to Deirdre's Photo Casebook's six day full colour revelation of Alex's affair with Nicola, featuring both spending most of the election campaign hanging about in bedrooms wearing only their underwear.

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I won't let the Sun backing the snp influence how I vote. I have more faith in the general public to make an informed decision on how to vote. Then again, what do I know? Some folk would regard me as educationally challenged. Could someone spell check that for me?

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If I was being cynical I would say that by coming out in favour of the SNP in Scotland and the Tories elsewhere suggests the Sun thinks the best way to get a Tory Government is for voters in Scotland to back the SNP.  If was being very cynical I would say that coming out in favour of the SNP in Scotland is seen as good for sales.  Probably more truth in the very cynical theory.

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If I was being cynical I would say that by coming out in favour of the SNP in Scotland and the Tories elsewhere suggests the Sun thinks the best way to get a Tory Government is for voters in Scotland to back the SNP.  If was being very cynical I would say that coming out in favour of the SNP in Scotland is seen as good for sales.  Probably more truth in the very cynical theory.

There is one reason and one reason alone that the Scottish Sun is backing the SNP. Currently the polls are suggesting half the population backing the SNP which equates to a lot of potential sales which in turn equates to advertising revenue in the ever shrinking world of the printed press. Pleased and proud to say I have never purchased a copy of the said august organ and, temporary backing for the SNP or not, don't intend to start now.

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The Sun, as has been pointed out to me on Twitter by a learned friend, often supports the most popular party (or in this case parties) in what is largely an effort to boost sales. However given that Milliband has said he wants to curb Murdoch's power perhaps the alignment to the SNP and Tories as a result is unsurprising given how cosy their (former) leaders were to Murdoch and his chums.

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Never mind folks. Another five years of austerity rammed down our throats. Another five years of foodbanks. Of poverty. Perhaps they'll even start pinching pennies from Charlies pension. Labour made it very clear on QT that they wont be in government so all thats left is Dave to make the rich richer and the poor poorer. If ever there was a setup in place to break the union this is it. I'm starting to wonder who actually lost the referendum. Did the NO campaign go too far and actually backfire on them because all they've demonstrated since then is total and absolute contempt for Scotland and its people.

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If, and it still remains a big if, Milliband does go through with his threat to wave through another five years of Tory misery rather than to work with a group of broadly similarly minded left of centre MPs democratically elected on precisely the same basis as him then it's not just Scottish Labour who have a major problem.

 

His own MPs, members, voters and supporters South of the border will absolutely crucify him. The Tories have painted the SNP as bogeymen (and women)by all accounts and opinion polls that has not frightened or fooled ordinary voters in England but it's sure got Ed a quivering wreck....

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Never mind folks. Another five years of austerity rammed down our throats. Another five years of foodbanks. Of poverty. Perhaps they'll even start pinching pennies from Charlies pension. Labour made it very clear on QT that they wont be in government so all thats left is Dave to make the rich richer and the poor poorer. If ever there was a setup in place to break the union this is it. I'm starting to wonder who actually lost the referendum. Did the NO campaign go too far and actually backfire on them because all they've demonstrated since then is total and absolute contempt for Scotland and its people.

 

 

Alex get off your soap box

 

Sure there are a lot of poor people

 

But there are a lot of others doing very well, I suspect you are one of them,  I sure am

 

Go to Glasgow stand on the street corner look at the cars, the delivery vans, look at the shoppers , look at the bags they are carrying full of goodies, . AS long as I can remember Glasgow as been full of betting shops probably the same people who use them go to the food banks. If you live in that area sure you would go for  free food rather than pay for it.  In this country we are far better off than most other places, tracker mortgages low tax, shorter hours than our parents worked. I am no Tory but I am a realist, You make it sound like there is no tomorrow unless we spend spend spend. The vital thing for the next government is to get people , who can, back into work, create jobs. With cheap oil low transport costs, This nation and the UK as a whole should do very well over the next 5 years, regardless of the party in control. Lets forget moaning about so called austerity and pull together. Too much grumbling for my mind. Talk about who won referendums, is not helping, Germany lost the war, but who is the kingpin of Europe now. Life changes all the time. Elections come and elections go. Sometimes you have the upper hand and sometimes you are crushed. The problem with independence was its finality, no going back, in five years there will be another general election and things will look different, they always do. I first voted in 1964 won by Wilson with 4 votes or so, 18 months later he went to the country and won by a landside , in 1970 he was ousted by Edward Heath, In 1973 Wilson won again by a minority government, after that he went to the country again and won comfortably. The next election  was won by Thither who won 4 terms, Finalised by Major who lost in a landside to Tony Blair. Don't get smug over success it can all change over a few years.

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Never mind folks. Another five years of austerity rammed down our throats. Another five years of foodbanks. Of poverty. Perhaps they'll even start pinching pennies from Charlies pension. Labour made it very clear on QT that they wont be in government so all thats left is Dave to make the rich richer and the poor poorer. If ever there was a setup in place to break the union this is it. I'm starting to wonder who actually lost the referendum. Did the NO campaign go too far and actually backfire on them because all they've demonstrated since then is total and absolute contempt for Scotland and its people.

 

 

Alex get off your soap box

 

Sure there are a lot of poor people

 

But there are a lot of others doing very well, I suspect you are one of them,  I sure am

 

Go to Glasgow stand on the street corner look at the cars, the delivery vans, look at the shoppers , look at the bags they are carrying full of goodies, . AS long as I can remember Glasgow as been full of betting shops probably the same people who use them go to the food banks. If you live in that area sure you would go for  free food rather than pay for it.  In this country we are far better off than most other places, tracker mortgages low tax, shorter hours than our parents worked. I am no Tory but I am a realist, You make it sound like there is no tomorrow unless we spend spend spend. The vital thing for the next government is to get people , who can, back into work, create jobs. With cheap oil low transport costs, This nation and the UK as a whole should do very well over the next 5 years, regardless of the party in control. Lets forget moaning about so called austerity and pull together. Too much grumbling for my mind. Talk about who won referendums, is not helping, Germany lost the war, but who is the kingpin of Europe now. Life changes all the time. Elections come and elections go. Sometimes you have the upper hand and sometimes you are crushed. The problem with independence was its finality, no going back, in five years there will be another general election and things will look different, they always do. I first voted in 1964 won by Wilson with 4 votes or so, 

 

Laurence, who is going to pay the remotest attention to your views if you can't get your basic facts right. Harold Wilson's Labour party did not win the 1964 election with '4 votes or so'. Firstly I am assuming you mean seats rather than votes as they were actually about three million short of winning a majority of the  votes but, even on the assumption that the word you intended to use was seats,, you have still got it wrong as they actually fell four seats short of a majority and had to form a minority government largely supported, on a confidence and supply basis, by the Liberals.

 

Get the facts right and your argument might just have a little weight to it.

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If, and it still remains a big if, Milliband does go through with his threat to wave through another five years of Tory misery rather than to work with a group of broadly similarly minded left of centre MPs democratically elected on precisely the same basis as him then it's not just Scottish Labour who have a major problem.

 

His own MPs, members, voters and supporters South of the border will absolutely crucify him. The Tories have painted the SNP as bogeymen (and women)by all accounts and opinion polls that has not frightened or fooled ordinary voters in England but it's sure got Ed a quivering wreck....

 

I notice he didn't rule out a minority Government producing sensible policies designed to attract vote by vote support, just a formal deal /arrangement......or is that too close to democracy for the Labour party to even contemplate as an option?   

 

I'd not be overly surprised at a Tory/Labour/LibDem Government of Union Unity, tbh. It would be the obvious pouting, foot-stamping response, given all the rhetoric of this campaign,  to the temerity of the Scots voting outside the centuries old accepted box of the Westminster two party buggin's turn dictatorship.

 

It's going to be an "interesting" few days until Thursday..............and then the real fun starts!

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I've said before that Miliband does not need any deals with the SNP to form a Government.  Sturgeon keeps banging on about wanting to lock the Tories out of Downing street and how the SNP will never work with the Tories.  By taking such a hard line stance on that the SNP give themselves no room for negotiation - they simply have to support a Labour Government.  No deals are required.  If the Tories cannot form a Government and the SNP representation at Westminster would allow Labour to form one, the SNP simply have to say they will support a Miliband led Government or else we could end up with a 2nd election with the risk of a Tory Government.

 

This would mean more than simply supporting Labour in any vote of confidence, it would mean voting for Labour policy, much of which, after all, is broadly similar to SNP policy (independence and Trident excepted).  The SNP would, of course have opportunities to shape policy through the normal committee and debate process, but the final detail of any bills would, in general, need to be supported.  The reason for this is that voting against essentially left wing policies would be something that the voters of Scotland would not forgive the SNP for.  Remember, a large majority of those who have switched to the SNP were previously labour voters and they will not have changed from their support of left of centre economic and social policy.  If the SNP were to block socialist policy being implemented, the Scottish Labour voters who have turned to the SNP would feel betrayed and would return to Labour in their droves.

 

The 2nd point is that Sturgeon also keeps banging on about the SNP MPs being needed to stand up for Scottish interests.  But what is quite clear here is that the loss of so many Scottish seats to the SNP is seriously jeopardising Labour's chance of forming a Government.  Labour needs those seats back and therefore it will be bending over backwards to to appease Scottish interests in order to win back Scottish voters.  Bear in mind also that by relying on Scottish seats in Parliament, Labour needs the Union intact far more than the Tories do and therefore also needs to demonstrate to the Scottish people that the Westminster Parliament can work well for them.  It will be better for them to be seen to be doing that off their own bat without any deals with the SNP, but with the SNP voting for the legislation they put forward.

 

No.  Miliband needs to do no deal with the SNP.  He has woken up to the fact that there is no need for the Labour dog to be wagged by the SNP tail but every reason for the SNP tail to wag to the dog's bidding.  By supporting a Labour Government without receiving any concessions, the SNP can lock the Tories out of Downing Street - which is what they have vowed to do.  All Miliband needs from the SNP is for them to keep their word.  Fail to support a Labour Government and let the Tories back in and it will be the SNP that will have the electorate to answer to.

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The 2nd point is that Sturgeon also keeps banging on about the SNP MPs being needed to stand up for Scottish interests. 

Yup... to the extent that you would think that theSNP were the only people who have ever been interested in Scotland's interests. Maybe that's why they've presumed to attempt to amalgamate the national flag and their own party symbol into one and the same thing. I can think of at least one very unfortunate historical precedent there.....

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I've said before that Miliband does not need any deals with the SNP to form a Government.  Sturgeon keeps banging on about wanting to lock the Tories out of Downing street and how the SNP will never work with the Tories.  By taking such a hard line stance on that the SNP give themselves no room for negotiation - they simply have to support a Labour Government.  No deals are required.  If the Tories cannot form a Government and the SNP representation at Westminster would allow Labour to form one, the SNP simply have to say they will support a Miliband led Government or else we could end up with a 2nd election with the risk of a Tory Government.

 

This would mean more than simply supporting Labour in any vote of confidence, it would mean voting for Labour policy, much of which, after all, is broadly similar to SNP policy (independence and Trident excepted).  The SNP would, of course have opportunities to shape policy through the normal committee and debate process, but the final detail of any bills would, in general, need to be supported.  The reason for this is that voting against essentially left wing policies would be something that the voters of Scotland would not forgive the SNP for.  Remember, a large majority of those who have switched to the SNP were previously labour voters and they will not have changed from their support of left of centre economic and social policy.  If the SNP were to block socialist policy being implemented, the Scottish Labour voters who have turned to the SNP would feel betrayed and would return to Labour in their droves.

 

The 2nd point is that Sturgeon also keeps banging on about the SNP MPs being needed to stand up for Scottish interests.  But what is quite clear here is that the loss of so many Scottish seats to the SNP is seriously jeopardising Labour's chance of forming a Government.  Labour needs those seats back and therefore it will be bending over backwards to to appease Scottish interests in order to win back Scottish voters.  Bear in mind also that by relying on Scottish seats in Parliament, Labour needs the Union intact far more than the Tories do and therefore also needs to demonstrate to the Scottish people that the Westminster Parliament can work well for them.  It will be better for them to be seen to be doing that off their own bat without any deals with the SNP, but with the SNP voting for the legislation they put forward.

 

No.  Miliband needs to do no deal with the SNP.  He has woken up to the fact that there is no need for the Labour dog to be wagged by the SNP tail but every reason for the SNP tail to wag to the dog's bidding.  By supporting a Labour Government without receiving any concessions, the SNP can lock the Tories out of Downing Street - which is what they have vowed to do.  All Miliband needs from the SNP is for them to keep their word.  Fail to support a Labour Government and let the Tories back in and it will be the SNP that will have the electorate to answer to.

First to set the record straight. Independence is not in the SNP manifesto for this election.

 

If Labours policy was a socialist one then I'd agree with your point. However, Labour will not abolish the bedroom tax. Labour will not rule out increases in taxation. Labour have pledged to put money into the foodbanks. Does those few things sound like the policies of a socialist party?

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