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The General Election 2015 Thread


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SNP at 52% in the latest poll.  :smile:  :scotland:  :scotland:

You might as well enjoy it while you have it because the history of politics tells us it ain't going to last all that long.

 

 

It will last as long as the skid marks on a unionists' union jack keks, which is long enough fer me. :smile:

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Again the reports are inaccurate. Two well known individuals who have made a habit of following Jim Murphy and rudely and very vocally disrupting his meetings who were until yesterday among the 114,00

Achtung! I actually find it hilarious listening to to the British nationalists continually bleating about the referendum, which they won FFS, and how it's all the SNP are interested in. It goes s

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SNP at 52% in the latest poll.  :smile:  :scotland:  :scotland:

Which polsters ?

 

 

TNS (Scotland): SNP 52 (+6) CON 13 (-1) LAB 24 (-6) LIB 6 (+3) GRN 3 (-1) 18th Mar-8th April N=978 Tabs http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll  #GE2015

:scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :scotland:  :party:

Momentum clearly with the Lib Dems.  If they continue to double their support each week it should be a landslide victory for Wee Willie in May. :tongueincheek:

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As tremendous as the TNS poll looks, it's pretty old data but entertaining nonetheless.

With Labour holding huge majorities in a lot of seats it needs a massive swing for the SNP to win, and while polls have them mopping up just now, even a very slight Labour recovery could see them turn obliteration into just a massacre. Milliband won't get close to a majority, IMO, regardless of how they perform in Scotland anyway.

However, even better than the polls, news today that hot on the heels of being stomped on by Ed Balls, Jim Murphy's shameless, flat out lies have been exposed again by his own Uk Labour masters. "We won't make cuts in Scotland" said Jim, repeatedly in the debates, and as recently as yesterday. Really Jim?

Chukka Umunna delivered the biggest slap down to date for Murphy in confirming the cuts as Labour appear to be conceding defeat in Scotland. ... "The leader of Scottish Labour will not be in charge of the UK budget"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=8-OUxLmxNi0

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Labour 275

Con 283

SNP 38

Liberal D 23

UKip 6

DUP 8 add to Con

SDLP 3 add to Labour

Sf 3 wont sit

Green 1

respect 1 add to Lab on a good day

speaker 1 votes status quo

P C 4

Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats there are but I feel a good guide to the outcome

The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

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Labour 275

Con 283

SNP 38

Liberal D 23

UKip 6

DUP 8 add to Con

SDLP 3 add to Labour

Sf 3 wont sit

Green 1

respect 1 add to Lab on a good day

speaker 1 votes status quo

P C 4

Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats there are but I feel a good guide to the outcome

The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

Your arithmetic is still rather flawed. Mine is not great but I make that seven seats short.

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Kingsmill ?

You should go to spec savers see my disclaimer

Where I state that it is not exact

Do you get high on this continual sniping ?

Can we have a grown up comment from you for just once in your hum drum existence ?

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Labour 275

Con 283

SNP 38

Liberal D 23

UKip 6

DUP 8 add to Con

SDLP 3 add to Labour

Sf 3 wont sit

Green 1

respect 1 add to Lab on a good day

speaker 1 votes status quo

P C 4

Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats there are but I feel a good guide to the outcome

The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

Your arithmetic is still rather flawed. Mine is not great but I make that seven seats short.

 

I make that 646 which is four seats short. In reality, if recent polls are anything like accurate, the Labour total will be somewhat down on that and the SNP total will be a bit up because Scottish Labour seem to be heading for a bit of a wipeout.

It's going to be interesting to see what the Labour party in Scotland so to try to sort themselves out because when the UK party got into a similar unelectable pickle in the 80s, Blair reinvented them as "New Labour".... which is actually one of the root causes of the state they are now in.

 

I wonder what impact this morning's major transport announcement from the SNP will have after Drew Hendry informed Good Morning Scotland listeners that the SNP could take credit for dualling the A9 at Ballachulish. :amazed:

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Labour 275

Con 283

SNP 38

Liberal D 23

UKip 6

DUP 8 add to Con

SDLP 3 add to Labour

Sf 3 wont sit

Green 1

respect 1 add to Lab on a good day

speaker 1 votes status quo

P C 4

Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats there are but I feel a good guide to the outcome

The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

 

Yes, this is what will happen, put yer houses on it folks. :smile:

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The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

 

Yes, this is what will happen, put yer houses on it folks. :smile:

 

A broadly grinning Nicola has already been to the bookies with the title deeds of Bute House, DD!

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Labour 275

Con 283

SNP 38

Liberal D 23

UKip 6

DUP 8 add to Con

SDLP 3 add to Labour

Sf 3 wont sit

Green 1

respect 1 add to Lab on a good day

speaker 1 votes status quo

P C 4

Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats there are but I feel a good guide to the outcome

The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

Your arithmetic is still rather flawed. Mine is not great but I make that seven seats short.

 

I make that 646 which is four seats short. In reality, if recent polls are anything like accurate, the Labour total will be somewhat down on that and the SNP total will be a bit up because Scottish Labour seem to be heading for a bit of a wipeout.

It's going to be interesting to see what the Labour party in Scotland so to try to sort themselves out because when the UK party got into a similar unelectable pickle in the 80s, Blair reinvented them as "New Labour".... which is actually one of the root causes of the state they are now in.

 

I wonder what impact this morning's major transport announcement from the SNP will have after Drew Hendry informed Good Morning Scotland listeners that the SNP could take credit for dualling the A9 at Ballachulish. :amazed:

 

 

 

I suppose you  subject to the Mansion Tax hey Charles ?

 

The root cause Charles is the massive amount of money used to bail out

 

1) Northern Rock

2)Lloyds

3)HBOS

4) RBS

 

Massive amounts of money to make sure investors like you and me  did not lose their money and life savings

 

Nothing to do with welfare benefits nothing to do with bad economics

 

I want to know when the treasury are going to get the funds back from the banks ?

 

Simple as that, If we get the money back the country will be back in the black.

 

4 seats don't vote you know 3 SF  and the speaker and anybody away in hospital I remember in the early 1950s they were wheeling chronically sick members through the lobbies.

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Latest Guardian projection has labour and SNP, 326, able to win a confidence vote, possibly requiring another party for majority.

Tories and Con Dems, 298 unable to form government, even with UKIPs, 302.

Labour, SNP, Con Dems would obtain a solid majority. 355.

All the projections out there are pretty ropey though to be honest. Gonna be quite exciting on the day.

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Labour 275

Con 283

SNP 38

Liberal D 23

UKip 6

DUP 8 add to Con

SDLP 3 add to Labour

Sf 3 wont sit

Green 1

respect 1 add to Lab on a good day

speaker 1 votes status quo

P C 4

Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats there are but I feel a good guide to the outcome

The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

What an absolutely absurd post.  Having made a prediction in which the number of seats identified was over 50 short of the actual number, you have taken a fortnight to come back and correct it and still have the number 4 short.  You state "Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats" but there is nothing obvious about it.  There is absolutely no reason why you should not use the actual number of seats and every reason why you should.

 

Having got your figures wrong you then compound your error by getting your conclusion wrong.  On your figures and assuming the Lib Dems side with the Tories and UKIP also support them along with the DUP, then the Tories will have the support of 320 MPs.  Labour will get the support of the large number of SNP MPs, the Welsh Nats the SDLP, Green and Respect MPs.  That adds up to 322.  That means Labour might be able to muster the support of 2 more MPs than the Tories.  That makes the colour of the 4 missing MPs rather important don't you think?  I've also just read your later post and you still can't get things right.  You mention the 4 MPs who either won't or can't vote but you have already included those in your 546. 

 

I see you also can't resist another little swipe at Kingsmills.  Kingsmills and I may disgree over the General Election but he is one of the very few people who actually does make "grown up" and well considered comments on this thread.

 

Mind you, to be fair, your projections are considerably better than those of some of the political parties who on the one hand can't give any credible information of where the money for increased spending is going to come from and one the other, where the welfare savings will be made. 

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Labour 275

Con 283

SNP 38

Liberal D 23

UKip 6

DUP 8 add to Con

SDLP 3 add to Labour

Sf 3 wont sit

Green 1

respect 1 add to Lab on a good day

speaker 1 votes status quo

P C 4

Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats there are but I feel a good guide to the outcome

The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

What an absolutely absurd post.  Having made a prediction in which the number of seats identified was over 50 short of the actual number, you have taken a fortnight to come back and correct it and still have the number 4 short.  You state "Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats" but there is nothing obvious about it.  There is absolutely no reason why you should not use the actual number of seats and every reason why you should.

 

Having got your figures wrong you then compound your error by getting your conclusion wrong.  On your figures and assuming the Lib Dems side with the Tories and UKIP also support them along with the DUP, then the Tories will have the support of 320 MPs.  Labour will get the support of the large number of SNP MPs, the Welsh Nats the SDLP, Green and Respect MPs.  That adds up to 322.  That means Labour might be able to muster the support of 2 more MPs than the Tories.  That makes the colour of the 4 missing MPs rather important don't you think?  I've also just read your later post and you still can't get things right.  You mention the 4 MPs who either won't or can't vote but you have already included those in your 546. 

 

I see you also can't resist another little swipe at Kingsmills.  Kingsmills and I may disgree over the General Election but he is one of the very few people who actually does make "grown up" and well considered comments on this thread.

 

Mind you, to be fair, your projections are considerably better than those of some of the political parties who on the one hand can't give any credible information of where the money for increased spending is going to come from and one the other, where the welfare savings will be made. 

 

 

 

Well tell your beloved Kingsmill to leave my family out of his attacks, something he has never apologised for and something I won't and can't forget and your overtures will not change that

 

A guys wife has nothing to do with Kingsmill

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Latest Guardian projection has labour and SNP, 326, able to win a confidence vote, possibly requiring another party for majority.

Tories and Con Dems, 298 unable to form government, even with UKIPs, 302.

Labour, SNP, Con Dems would obtain a solid majority. 355.

All the projections out there are pretty ropey though to be honest. Gonna be quite exciting on the day.

I agree it is going to be very interesting.  UK Polls over the last couple of days seem to showTories and Lib dems improving with UKIP losing ground.  The position of the Lib Dems will be crucial because they are the only party which would give support either to the Tories or to Labour.  They could easily be the king makers here and may well be in a position to wring some significant concessions out of the others.  Electoral reform would be good but at the very least they will help to squash the more extreme policies of both left and right.  I think that message will be atractive to the electorate at large and I think they will end up with a pretty decent vote at the end of the day.

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Labour 275

Con 283

SNP 38

Liberal D 23

UKip 6

DUP 8 add to Con

SDLP 3 add to Labour

Sf 3 wont sit

Green 1

respect 1 add to Lab on a good day

speaker 1 votes status quo

P C 4

Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats there are but I feel a good guide to the outcome

The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

What an absolutely absurd post.  Having made a prediction in which the number of seats identified was over 50 short of the actual number, you have taken a fortnight to come back and correct it and still have the number 4 short.  You state "Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats" but there is nothing obvious about it.  There is absolutely no reason why you should not use the actual number of seats and every reason why you should.

 

Having got your figures wrong you then compound your error by getting your conclusion wrong.  On your figures and assuming the Lib Dems side with the Tories and UKIP also support them along with the DUP, then the Tories will have the support of 320 MPs.  Labour will get the support of the large number of SNP MPs, the Welsh Nats the SDLP, Green and Respect MPs.  That adds up to 322.  That means Labour might be able to muster the support of 2 more MPs than the Tories.  That makes the colour of the 4 missing MPs rather important don't you think?  I've also just read your later post and you still can't get things right.  You mention the 4 MPs who either won't or can't vote but you have already included those in your 546. 

 

I see you also can't resist another little swipe at Kingsmills.  Kingsmills and I may disgree over the General Election but he is one of the very few people who actually does make "grown up" and well considered comments on this thread.

 

Mind you, to be fair, your projections are considerably better than those of some of the political parties who on the one hand can't give any credible information of where the money for increased spending is going to come from and one the other, where the welfare savings will be made. 

 

 

 

Well tell your beloved Kingsmill to leave my family out of his attacks, something he has never apologised for and something I won't and can't forget and your overtures will not change that

 

A guys wife has nothing to do with Kingsmill

 

Laurence, Kingsmills comment that you had a swipe at was "Your arithmetic is still rather flawed. Mine is not great but I make that seven seats short."  Unless your wife is called "arithmetic" then I fail to see any reference to your wife in his post.

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Remaining televised debates - all on BBC.

 

Thursday 16th April - UK-wide - opposition parties - SNP, Labour, UKIP, Green, Plaid Cymru.
Thursday 30th April - UK-wide - Question Time - Leaders' debate - Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem.

 

Sunday 3rd May - Scotland-only - 'main' parties - SNP, Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem.

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Labour 275

Con 283

SNP 38

Liberal D 23

UKip 6

DUP 8 add to Con

SDLP 3 add to Labour

Sf 3 wont sit

Green 1

respect 1 add to Lab on a good day

speaker 1 votes status quo

P C 4

Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats there are but I feel a good guide to the outcome

The Tories will present the Queens speech. If it carries there will be a Conservative minority government

What an absolutely absurd post.  Having made a prediction in which the number of seats identified was over 50 short of the actual number, you have taken a fortnight to come back and correct it and still have the number 4 short.  You state "Obviously does not add up exactly to the number of seats" but there is nothing obvious about it.  There is absolutely no reason why you should not use the actual number of seats and every reason why you should.

 

Having got your figures wrong you then compound your error by getting your conclusion wrong.  On your figures and assuming the Lib Dems side with the Tories and UKIP also support them along with the DUP, then the Tories will have the support of 320 MPs.  Labour will get the support of the large number of SNP MPs, the Welsh Nats the SDLP, Green and Respect MPs.  That adds up to 322.  That means Labour might be able to muster the support of 2 more MPs than the Tories.  That makes the colour of the 4 missing MPs rather important don't you think?  I've also just read your later post and you still can't get things right.  You mention the 4 MPs who either won't or can't vote but you have already included those in your 546. 

 

I see you also can't resist another little swipe at Kingsmills.  Kingsmills and I may disgree over the General Election but he is one of the very few people who actually does make "grown up" and well considered comments on this thread.

 

Mind you, to be fair, your projections are considerably better than those of some of the political parties who on the one hand can't give any credible information of where the money for increased spending is going to come from and one the other, where the welfare savings will be made. 

 

 

 

Well tell your beloved Kingsmill to leave my family out of his attacks, something he has never apologised for and something I won't and can't forget and your overtures will not change that

 

A guys wife has nothing to do with Kingsmill

 

Laurence, Kingsmills comment that you had a swipe at was "Your arithmetic is still rather flawed. Mine is not great but I make that seven seats short."  Unless your wife is called "arithmetic" then I fail to see any reference to your wife in his post.

 

To be fair to my sternest,if not most reasoned and rational, critic, I believe Laurence remains upset by a vaguely humorous comment I made in the mists of time in response to Laurence listing his top ten favourite things in order with the late Marilyn Monroe towards the top of the the list and his good lady wife towards the bottom.

 

I had the temerity to suggest that the distaff side of the Laurence household might not necessarily be hugely enamoured by the respective places in the ranking.

 

Laurence did not seek to report the matter to Moderators at the time as being any way inappropriate and the only apology I intend to make is to say that I am very sorry indeed. Sorry he appears to have had a humour bypass

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Laurence.

I call you 'Laurence' and not 'Lawrence', as that's your user-name.

 

It's Kingsmills, not Kingsmill. Continually getting it wrong demonstrates 'sloppiness', which detracts from the rest of your posts (which, unsurprisingly, are invariably littered with errors).

This is a discussion forum - it should be used for original content, not simply a platform for posting a link to a topic which suits your agenda or for starting a new topic thread with a blatant, overly-worded 'cut-and-paste'. (incidentally, few on this forum relate to American Football ('grid-iron')).

There's nothing wrong with posting a link, per se, but at least support it with a comment...

 

Why must your input have passive-aggressive, confrontational undertones?

I hope you don't perceive this as a personal attack, Laurence, as that is not my intention - instead, they're simply my observations.

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Latest Guardian projection has labour and SNP, 326, able to win a confidence vote, possibly requiring another party for majority.

Tories and Con Dems, 298 unable to form government, even with UKIPs, 302.

Labour, SNP, Con Dems would obtain a solid majority. 355.

All the projections out there are pretty ropey though to be honest. Gonna be quite exciting on the day.

I agree it is going to be very interesting. UK Polls over the last couple of days seem to showTories and Lib dems improving with UKIP losing ground. The position of the Lib Dems will be crucial because they are the only party which would give support either to the Tories or to Labour. They could easily be the king makers here and may well be in a position to wring some significant concessions out of the others. Electoral reform would be good but at the very least they will help to squash the more extreme policies of both left and right. I think that message will be atractive to the electorate at large and I think they will end up with a pretty decent vote at the end of the day.

Yes, they could well still be of influence. We'll need to see how the numbers stack up, but it's seems to me they're on a bit of a damage limitation excercise with their well documented tuition fee "pledge" and general impact of being in bed with the Tories for the last 5 years.

They could conceivably lose their 3 rd party status to the SNP also, and with it the priveldges that brings in committees, PMQs etc. I think theyll certainly be down in seats but with a disaffection for all the big parties, it might not be as bad as suggested.

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