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Alex MacLeod

EU In or Out

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On 22/02/2016 at 9:26 PM, IBM said:

 

Dear Mr. Dad,

I'm well aware that we are part of the UK. I personally can't see independence in the foreseeable future. With that in mind, I wondered what other posters thought of the upcoming referendum. You stated in your first post that you don't know enough yet to make a decision. Well, fancy that? Neither do I. That's the only reason I hoped to find some informed opinion. 

It isn't any secret that the SNP have an agenda. Every party has. I thought the original post was to discuss the pros and cons of EU membership but some folk just can't stop obsessing over the bloody snp. 

This decision is far bigger than any political party and if folk can't rise above that........

Edited by robbylad
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Well, you may be interested to learn the substantive news just received from the Head Office of the Canadian Alliance of British Pensioners that the British Government has  begun to cave in to the  ever mounting pressure to treat every ex -pat pensioner that used to work in Britain and pay National Insurance Contributions the same as everyone else on their earnings, has agreed to consider a proposal put forward by the CABP and associated World bodies to phase in uprating for all those who live in ex-commonwealth countries and whose ex pat pensions have NEVER been uprated ever to combat inflation since they retired.

This is not a wholesale cave-in by the U K Government  but an agreement to phase in the upratings over quite a long period of time (with no back-pay to be considered for all the past years of deprivation foisted on to us however).

Why would Cameron and company do this ?-- Because now his own M.P.s and some Ministers have been informed of the extent of the iniquitous conduct of past Governments and powerful forces are mounting against him.

Delegates from overseas have been meeting with members of his Governments in London with the full support of the British press all of which oppose his past policies,. So he finally realises that this is a genuine issue that needs to be put to bed and dealt with so ....stay tuned.

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With the SNP having just forced through their austerity budget as part of their unholy alliance with the Tories, we really should be focusing on the Holyrood elections first of all. It is not good that the EU referendum comes so soon after because attention will focus on the splits in the English Tories over Europe rather than the record of the SNP government in Scotland. 

Personally I am not really wanting to talk about the EU until the Holyrood elections have been and gone.  But if people want to talk about the EU then for goodness sake raise a few issues of interest to you rather than complaining about others not doing so. 

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Ok. Since DD doesn't want to talk about the EU in the "Eu in or Out" thread, does anyone else on here think that employees rights are at risk by leaving? I realise a lot of people think the Tories would like to strip away a lot of them but what are the chances of them pulling that off? 

Would we find ourselves paying more for imported goods due to increased tariffs or, is this all part of "project fear2"?

Edited by robbylad

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On 25 February 2016 at 1:54 PM, robbylad said:

Ok. Since DD doesn't want to talk about the EU in the "Eu in or Out" thread, does anyone else on here think that employees rights are at risk by leaving? I realise a lot of people think the Tories would like to strip away a lot of them but what are the chances of them pulling that off? 

Would we find ourselves paying more for imported goods due to increased tariffs or, is this all part of "project fear2"?

I see you have no takers. But I agree that these are just the sort of things we should have some info about, but don't. We don't because nobody knows although I would doubt we would get better trading terms with EU countries than we do now. 

Michael Gove has said that officials keep telling him that EU regulations mean he can't do certain things that the Government wants to do in line with manifesto commitments. If he, as Government Minister doesn't know the extent to which the EU impacts on everyday life, how on earth are we supposed to?

I guess it comes down to a gut feeling about whether you feel the general principle of cooperation and increasingly closer political and financial union with our European neighbours is a good thing or not.  On balance I think it is and so if the vote was today I would vote to stay in the EU. But I'm open to arguments which might give a good case to leave! 

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Thanks for that DD. Part of me thinks this is a huge decision and another part wonders what difference will it make to ordinary people? I can't help feeling the waters will just be muddied further the closer we get to the big day. I'm with you in that at the moment I would probably vote to stay in. On the other if there was definitive proof that we'd all benefit from leaving........ I don't expect anything other than the two sides hissing at each other. 

What I think will be the most fascinating part will be what's left of the Tory party once it's over. At the moment they're making all the right noises about party unity and how they'll all work together regardless of the result. As the date nears and if polls are close, they'll tear each other apart.

I also hear a lot about Scotland being more in favour of staying than other parts of the UK. I'm not convinced of that. People I've spoken to seem pretty sure we should leave. The depressing part is most of them see immigration as the big problem. Not too sure it's a big problem in Scotland and when asylum seekers are blamed for everything, I don't think we'll get reasoned argument. 

One final point, do you think there could be a low turn out in the devolved parts of the UK? I worry that voters may not be too inclined to go to the polling stations twice in as many months. It's often difficult enough to get people to vote every 4/5 years. 

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The last place to look for reasoned opinion is on a football forum, robbylad.
The posters are biased beyond belief! The 'electorate' covered is simply not conducive to the general public consensus.
Why?
Because, most users of football forums are generally, white, young guys. It's really that simple. (but, I state, 'generally')
It's Ironic, as CTO's most reasoned contributors are outwith that democratic frame!

However, 32 of the 42 Scottish League clubs ran unofficial polls in the lead up to the November '14 referendum - and EVERY SINGLE ONE was in favour of independence!!I

Yet, it's NOT just a coincidence it didn't materialise - the 'sample' simply wasn't representative enough!

But, this referendum isn't anything like as devise as the Independence one!

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47 minutes ago, Sneckboy said:

The last place to look for reasoned opinion is on a football forum, robbylad.
The posters are biased beyond belief! The 'electorate' covered is simply not conducive to the general public consensus.
Why?
Because, most users of football forums are generally, white, young guys. It's really that simple. (but, I state, 'generally')
It's Ironic, as CTO's most reasoned contributors are outwith that democratic frame!

However, 32 of the 42 Scottish League clubs ran unofficial polls in the lead up to the November '14 referendum - and EVERY SINGLE ONE was in favour of independence!!I

Yet, it's NOT just a coincidence it didn't materialise - the 'sample' simply wasn't representative enough!

But, this referendum isn't anything like as devise as the Independence one!

If professional polling companies are making sufficient errors, for instance in their sampling procedures before the General Election, for these to make headlines, what chance do you have just by taking a flavour on a football forum or in the workplace etc? Pollsters often use samples as large as 1000+ which they go to great lengths to make representative of the electorate as a whole. So in the absence of such rigour, it's not surprising that you get the kind of "there's loads of boys at my work who say they won't go to the Caledonian Stadium" assertions which people like Dougal take to be as accurate as what they read in the Beano or the Dandy.

Sampling is a very complex procedure, and I'm interested in Sneckboy's anecdote that every single one of the 32 unofficial club Scottish Referendum polls returned a yes. Here, and indeed on football forums, the typical, or rather disproportionate, demographic is indeed young, white, possibly predominantly working class males which voter analysis did indeed later show was where the bulk of supporters of separation originated from. Now I don't know whether robbylad's anecdotal flavour of the IN/OUT situation originates from a similar source or demographic. But if it does, then we have an interesting scenario.

Because if similar population samples, albeit unrepresentative ones, are showing both support for Scottish separation and for European exit, then that might suggest that the SNP are barking up the wrong tree by adopting a European stance which is more contrary than they think to the views of their core support. The implications for any demand for a second Scottish referendum subsequent to a Scotland IN/ UK OUT scenario are also interesting, as is the question of how many INNERS would be annoyed enough at an OUT vote to be prepared to change their views on the Scottish question in order to remain in Europe under the highly altered scenario of a separate Scotland.

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You know, this referendum is already degenerating into the same disingenuous tedium as the last one - the only difference being that it will be over in a few short weeks so will not weigh us down for years on end.

In both cases, it's the status quo, with which the electorate are hence already familiar, against a change, the consequences of which are a matter of debate. So both in 2014 and now, any attempt by supporters of the status quo to point out possible disadvantages of a change are simply being rejected as "scaremongering" or "Project Fear" by those on the other side who look on this as an excuse not to answer the questions.

This therefore allows those wanting change to fudge and criticise the highlighting of its obvious difficulties and also to make unsubstantiated assertions which they call "positivity" - as opposed to the alleged "negativity" of their opponents' concerns. It is also not a tactic which is available to supporters of the status quo, features of which are already well documented.

So, also less than a year on from the General Election, we still have three-odd months (never mind - at least it's not three odd years!) of this latest Punch and Judy show still to suffer - and compounded by the efforts of sundry windbags to book their places on the Holyrood gravy train as well.

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 The debate took a painfully ironic twist today when French President Francois Hollande warned Britain that there would be "consequences" if it left the EU. Mr Hollande's desire to persuade us to stay does rather fly in the face of his predecessor Charles de Gaulle who, in 1963, very publicly said "NON" to the notion of Britain joining  "Les Six", which kept us out for a further decade.

I can't say I take the French terribly seriously because, whether it's sending their Secret Service into a New Zealand harbour to blow up the Rainbow warrior, surrendering to the Germans in 1940 contrary to an agreement they had made with Britain or their farmers dragging their carts on to main roads in protest against CAP subsidy levels, they can usually be guaranteed to put their own interests first.

I certainly remember 1963 when my dad was still in contact with many of his Army mates who, less than 20 years previously, had fought and died across France to bale them back out again from the mess they had got themselves into in 1940. Yes, a few "consequences" had to be suffered in order to liberate France. There was a lot of anger among these ex-servicemen at the way de Gaulle behaved - many of them suspected because he had not totally got his own way when he was a refugee enjoying our hospitality during the war.

It's partly having many of our affairs dictated to us by people like the French, who will suddenly - literally or metaphorically - drag their carts on to the road when they don't get their own way, that inspires the Eurosceptic in me.

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13 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

my dad was still in contact with many of his Army mates who, less than 20 years previously, had fought and died

Was your dad a spiritualist?

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On 04/03/2016 at 1:39 PM, Charles Bannerman said:

Yeh. Seer as well. It's going to be "51-49 leave" in Scotland, "55-45 stay" in the rest of the UK.

Can I take that to the bookies? 

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On 3/3/2016 at 10:12 PM, IBM said:

Good post Charles a change from your Natbashing :wink:

A minor change to French Bashing. Just another expression of his British nationalism.

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16 hours ago, Caley Stan said:

A minor change to French Bashing. Just another expression of his British nationalism.

Once again, here is a poster with an alarming inability to distinguish between Scotland  (with which I identify strongly) and the SNP (which I view as an embarrassing rabble).

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On 3/3/2016 at 9:55 PM, Charles Bannerman said:

Hollande's desire to persuade us to stay does rather fly in the face of his predecessor Charles de Gaulle who, in 1963, very publicly said "NON" to the notion of Britain joining  "Les Six", which kept us out for a further decade.

What exactly does this have to do with the forthcoming referendum?

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3 hours ago, Whippet said:

What exactly does this have to do with the forthcoming referendum?

Quite a lot actually. In particular it's difficult to escape the irony that the French should have been instrumental in keeping the UK put of the Common Market in days gone by but now it seems to suit them to want to intervene in the current campaign in an effort to get us to stay.

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18 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

Quite a lot actually. In particular it's difficult to escape the irony that the French should have been instrumental in keeping the UK put of the Common Market in days gone by but now it seems to suit them to want to intervene in the current campaign in an effort to get us to stay.

That was 1963. Things change. It suits them in 2016 to have us stay in. So what's the relevance of their position 53 years ago?

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5 hours ago, Whippet said:

That was 1963. Things change. It suits them in 2016 to have us stay in. So what's the relevance of their position 53 years ago?

This is not a case of "plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose". In a few years' time they may very well have changed their minds again. It's always wise to take account of history - during much of which the French have been, then not been, our best buddy, depending on where their legendary self interest lies.

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6 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

This is not a case of "plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose". In a few years' time they may very well have changed their minds again. It's always wise to take account of history - during much of which the French have been, then not been, our best buddy, depending on where their legendary self interest lies.

And what countries in particular don't have self interest?  Hasn't Britain over the years had 'best buddies' depending on where our own self interest lay? 

Politics are bollocks. Sorry about the cynicism there, but watching the behaviour of career politicians, especially in the age of social media and soundbites, makes a mild mannered tolerant guy deeply, deeply cynical about politics. 

I get your point about the French by the way, and, yes, they don't do protesting in half measures. They have a very different culture, and that's fair enough. I'm fairly ambivalent towards them but can see how they would wind some people up. 

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On ‎06‎/‎03‎/‎2016 at 11:15 PM, Charles Bannerman said:

Quite a lot actually. In particular it's difficult to escape the irony that the French should have been instrumental in keeping the UK put of the Common Market in days gone by but now it seems to suit them to want to intervene in the current campaign in an effort to get us to stay.

As usual, CB's arguments are at least half a century out of date and wholly irrelevant to the present day.

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15 hours ago, Whippet said:

 

 

50 minutes ago, Kingsmills said:

As usual, CB's arguments are at least half a century out of date and wholly irrelevant to the present day.

Kind of got that. Couldn't be arsed getting involved. If he doesn't like the French because of the way they behaved in the 60's or because he's got some stereotype frenchman in his head . . . let's just leave him to it.

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