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The Holyrood Election thread


DoofersDad

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All this talk of austerity, but UK public spending is only falling by very small amounts in % terms, compared to what would have happened had enough people been fooled into voting Yes. Year 1, and the already massively indebted Scottish Government's already planned massive annual deficit would have had an unplanned £7bn black hole due to the oil price (with similar to follow in subsequent years, it appears). THAT'S when you get real austerity, the kind noticed by every single person, every single day. Thank goodness for the broad shoulders of the UK, eh? Those nice English taxpayers just have to subsidise us more than ever before.

Perhaps I'm fortunate in that I can't say I've actually noticed any tangible impact of the Tory/SNP austerity, until recently that is - the local out-of-hours GP facility was closed down due to the SNP health budget cuts, so that instead of being 1 mile from me I have to go to Dundee 28 miles away, which is something you notice when you have young kids and need these services in the middle of the night.  Whose fault? I was reading the other day that in the time the UK has increased NHS spending by over 4%, the SNP has chosen to pillage the Scottish health budget and increased spending here by only 0.8%. 

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I define austerity in part as crap council services because the SNP have for years imposed a Council Tax freeze in the hope that lots of people will blame Westminster for infrequently emptied bins and holes in the road.

But I define REAL austerity as the kind of shortages and grim standards of living that our parents and grandparents suffered post war. Worse still, the desperate poverty which prevailed before that in an era when current benefit levels could only be dreamt of.

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8 hours ago, Kingsmills said:

A bit off topic but while you are entitled to your own opinion you are not entitled to your own facts.

According to Professor John Curtis, something of an authority on the matter, there have been 25 polls on the matter of independence conducted by reputable pollsters. After stripping out the don't knows, the average for yes is 48 % and for no 52 %. Not a dramatic change since the referendum but a definite 'edging up'. but fear not dear Unionist, unless the UK votes to leave the EU with Scotland voting the other way by a significant majority the question of another referendum in the course of the next parliament will not arise despite the Unionist parties attempt to make it otherwise it is not an immediately current issue whilst, the economy, the health service, education, law and order and transport to name but a few are and that is why we are likely to wake up to another five years of 'Separatist' rule tomorrow morning.

I have referenced "What Scotland Thinks" ( not "wants, Sneckboy!) earlier in this thread and I referred to it in making my post.  The poll questions ask people how they would vote if there was a referendum now.  The salient facts are the answers to that question.  What you have done in order to boost perceived support for independence is to make an assumption that those who responded "don't know" would, in actual fact, vote in proportion to those who did state a preference.  That is an assumption and not a fact.  In any case, if we are talking about support for independence, by definition, somebody who is a "don't know" does not support independence.  Equally, they also do not oppose it.  

The measure of support for independence should therefore be judged only on how they those polled answered the question.  Prof Curtis is perfectly entitled to use the facts to surmise what the outcome might be on the basis of assuming "don't knows" either won't vote or vote in proportion to the decided, but the actuality of the level of support for independence and the likely outcome of a referendum based on that level of support are 2 different things.  This is important because as Sneckboy rightly points out, Sturgeon has stated that she thinks a referendum would be appropriate if the support for independence was 50% or more for a prolonged period of time.  So let's stick with the level of support as identified by the pollsters.

"What Scotland Thinks" reports on 40 polls since the referendum.  The average "Yes" score is 44.7%.  After the referendum there was a definite "edging up" and the first 10 polls after the referendum showed support averaging 45.9%.  The last 10 polls average out at 43.4% with the last 5 at 42.8%.  I really don't think that a drop of 2 - 3%  in those answering "Yes" can be interpreted as an "edging up" of support for independence.

As for Unionists continuing to talk about a future referendum, we do so of course, only because the SNP continue to threaten to have one.  Sturgeon clearly has not the slightest intention of honouring her once in a generation commitment and if her words then meant so little, one can have little faith that she will honour the "50% or over for a prolonged period of time" comment.  If that meant anything at all, then the potential for another referendum would not have been included in the Manifesto.  Don't get me wrong, I have no issue with the SNP pushing the case for independence and seeking a further referendum at some point.  After all, independence is their raison d'etre.  But for goodness sake, why on earth can't they behave with some level of honour and respect for democratic principles?  If only their manifesto had stated that they accepted the result of the referendum and that whilst they will hope to have another at some point, there will not be one during this coming parliament.  That would have been appropriate given their earlier commitments and it would have allowed a proper focus on the things of day to day Government.  Unionists will stop going on about the threat of a 2nd referendum when the separatists stop threatening one.  Simple.

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It may be a response to the recession, but in recent years the world seems to have been going through a bizarre phase of political eccentricity resulting in some very strange mass voting trends. There have been various consequences including, for instance, the emergence of Donald Trump as likely Republican nominee and the rise of the SNP, both of which are atributable to this same global glitch.

One thing is certain, though - sanity will return to the world of politics and the SNP - well a few of them at any rate - know this. As a result they need to keep pursuing their requirement for a one-off moment of carastrophic political judgement with permanent consequences before the malaise wears off and normality returns. Their problem is that they need a) to find an excuse for a second referendum and b) before the stark realities of the demise of oil finally penetrate their support plus c) at a time when they feel pretty sure of winning because a second set of advice on where to place their separation obsession would be terminal.

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3 hours ago, Oddquine said:

It isn't how much a deficit is which defines austerity...it is the use to which the deficit is put. 

 

What an extraordinary thing to say!  You don't use a deficit, responsible politicians try and reduce it.  This statement says more about the mentality of certain separatists than I ever could!

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Its all over bar the counting, with not much on here and lots of red dots which I did not contribute to.  For those who are staying up with excitement to see who comes in second I hope you have a good night and your party is successful.  I am away to bed for a sound sleep knowing we will be in safe hands for the next five years :wink:

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Obviously an overwhelming victory for the SNP but the much anticipated 2nd overall majority did not materialise.  Some were also suggesting the SNP might win all of the constituency seats but they actually fell 14 seats short of that.   The SNP constituency share of the vote was 46.5% which was lower than any opinion poll rating since December 2014.  It would appear that the SNP have peaked and are on theeir way down.

We can therefore expect the SNP's strategy for the next parliament to be focussed on gaining sufficient support for independence to justify a 2nd referendum ASAP.  It is clear that voting in the Holyrood election is broadly based on voters' views on independence.  Those who want an independent Scotland vote SNP because it is only with an SNP Government that there will ever be a 2nd referendum.  This, of course, was why the door to a 2nd referendum was left open in their manifesto.

Whilst the Lib Dems have slipped to 5th, it is interesting to note that their constituency vote of 7.8% is higher than any opinion poll rating since Feb 2014.  They'll be back as a force before too much longer.

Now attention can focus on the EU referendum.  Clearly a vote to leave by the UK as a whole will reopen the independence debate here again.  It should be an interesting few weeks.

 

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An overwhelming victory for the SNP as you say but in saying that the SNP are on the way down you are being just a tad optimistic from your point of view and comparing apples with pith covered citrus fruit. The SNP's share of the constituency vote was at a record high even up from their astonishing and unprecedented triumph of 2011 and they won even more constituencies than then.. What made the difference is that, given the widespread anticipation of a resounding victory a larger number of supporters 'lent' their list votes to other parties most notably the Greens.

Personally, I don't think that minority government is a bad thing at all. The near majority is such that the SNP will not enter into coalition but will get by comfortably enough with a loose confidence and supply arrangement with the Greens and/or Lib Dems.

The real story of the night is that the Conservatives are once more a significant factor in Scottish politics since Thatcherism virtually wiped them out almost forty years ago. While their policies and political philosophy are anathema to me I don't actually think that's such a bad thing for democracy.

It's clear that the losers are Scottish Labour who, unless they find some sort of focus and direction post referendum are at serious risk of a period in the wilderness perhaps as long as that the Tories have just wandered out of.

Finally, I am almost disproportionately pleased that UKIP and their vile racist philosophy remain an utter irrelevance and unrepresented. Well done to the voters of the Highlands for shunning David Cockburn.

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Interesting that, in the face of the SNP's unprecedented campaign of vilification against them, lasting for years, the Tories have made a significant breakthrough here, including Ruth Davidson unseating the Nats.

A couple of other thoughts. Much, for some reason, has been made of the "large" turnout..... of 50odd%. But compared with 71 in the General "Westmonster" Election, this perhaps again reflects relative public perceptions. Then add to this the poll which tells us that separation is only the 11th highest priority issue with Scottish voters.

And in the absence of an overall majority, if the SNP want even to get Holyrood to vote to have a second bash, they will need the support of their Green chums, who will presumably exact a price...maybe even demand closing down the North Sea oil industry!!! :-)

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6 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

It's The Weegies Wot Won It!!

....and the Invernessians, The Dundonians, the Aberdonians, the Hebrideans, the good people of Moray, Caithness and Sutherland, Argyll and Bute, Perthshire, Aberdeenshire, Angus, Lanarkshire, The Lothians, Ayreshire, Banffshire to name but a few.......a record number of constituency votes, a record share of the constituency vote and a record number of constituency seats....

Edited by Kingsmills
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8 hours ago, DoofersDad said:

Obviously an overwhelming victory

And yet at the same time, underwhelming!

I'd liken it to Celtic winning the league this season. It was always going to be the outcome, but the didn't do it with any flair, and the margin of victory was smaller than before, despite the unprecedented weakness of their opponents. Indeed, their traditional main adversaries are a shadow of what they were back in 2011!  Tactically the team is nothing special and has few ideas these days, with the only game plan being to get the ball to the star striker.  They benefit of course from having more season ticket holders than any other team, these supporters being the most vocal and devoted (whilst also being considered somewhat paranoid).  Recent forays outside of Scotland generate much excitement and noise, but ultimately bring little success and they're only really there to make up the numbers. Always like to think of themselves as a bit rebellious, without realising that these days they are well and truly the establishment.

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Brilliant! You should set up a new  pro-UK website called   "Yngwies Over Scotland".

If I could presume to add to your masterful analogy, I also wonder how many of their supporters spend many of their waking hours hanging aimlessly about outside their HQ, draped in SNP regalia, desperately hoping that Wee Nicola or some of "the players" might emerge.

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48 minutes ago, Charles Bannerman said:

I also wonder how many of their supporters spend many of their waking hours hanging aimlessly about outside their HQ, draped in SNP regalia, desperately hoping that Wee Nicola or some of "the players" might emerge.

Like this......?!

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/court-rules-independence-camp-cannot-be-evicted-from-holyrood-1-4119971

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I must say I'm quite astonished at members of the second and third largest parties queueing up to become Presiding Officer, a post which entails setting aside party affiliations. In a minority government situation, this is in effect handing another seat to the SNP who might better have been left to fill the post themselves in order to deepen their minority and make them sweat a bit more.

It's especially strange in a wee parliament of just 129 members - although that still gives Scotland more than twice as many MSPs per head than the corresponding  MP figure at Westminster, and only to manage domestic stuff. However the small numbers and minority administrations make knife edge votes all the more likely at Holyrood so perhaps the notion of the PO being drawn from the ranks of MSPs at all isn't quite such a good idea in Scotland.

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3 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

I must say I'm quite astonished at members of the second and third largest parties queueing up to become Presiding Officer, a post which entails setting aside party affiliations. In a minority government situation, this is in effect handing another seat to the SNP who might better have been left to fill the post themselves in order to deepen their minority and make them sweat a bit more.

It's especially strange in a wee parliament of just 129 members - although that still gives Scotland more than twice as many MSPs per head than the corresponding  MP figure at Westminster, and only to manage domestic stuff. However the small numbers and minority administrations make knife edge votes all the more likely at Holyrood so perhaps the notion of the PO being drawn from the ranks of MSPs at all isn't quite such a good idea in Scotland.

Anything for a bit extra money and perks Charles.

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There was a great bit of free cabaret in Morrisons this afternoon. As I was parking, I noticed, in the Parent and Child spaces, this beaten up old white Transit plastered with various stickers and with two flagpoles - one sporting a large lion rampant and the other a large saltire with "Yes2" inscribed on it. "Here we go!" I thought.

And indeed, on entering the shop, I was not at all surprised to see this posse of what I can only describe as Braveheart Extras wheeling a trolley round the shop. I was equally unsurprised to observe that they had no children with them. I just wonder if they were filling their trolley at your expense and mine in order to spend the coming days and weeks, also at your expense and mine, visually polluting the front of the Scottish Parliament?

Anyway, as this unkempt horde (the guy in matching camouflage hat and jacket plus extremely scruffy and badly fitting kilt was especially hilarious!) progressed in my direction, I noticed that one of them had on his T-short a large badge saying "Yes 2". So I just looked him up and down curiously and observed "But you haven't even been able to win Yes 1 yet!". The response wasn't quite audible but fairly easy to guess.

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On 13/05/2016 at 11:35 PM, Charles Bannerman said:

There was a great bit of free cabaret in Morrisons this afternoon. As I was parking, I noticed, in the Parent and Child spaces, this beaten up old white Transit plastered with various stickers and with two flagpoles - one sporting a large lion rampant and the other a large saltire with "Yes2" inscribed on it. "Here we go!" I thought.

And indeed, on entering the shop, I was not at all surprised to see this posse of what I can only describe as Braveheart Extras wheeling a trolley round the shop. I was equally unsurprised to observe that they had no children with them. I just wonder if they were filling their trolley at your expense and mine in order to spend the coming days and weeks, also at your expense and mine, visually polluting the front of the Scottish Parliament?

Anyway, as this unkempt horde (the guy in matching camouflage hat and jacket plus extremely scruffy and badly fitting kilt was especially hilarious!) progressed in my direction, I noticed that one of them had on his T-short a large badge saying "Yes 2". So I just looked him up and down curiously and observed "But you haven't even been able to win Yes 1 yet!". The response wasn't quite audible but fairly easy to guess.

How do you know it was their van Charles? Surely you didn't follow them out to see if it was?

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I find it odd that many SNP people value Independence and Self Determination so highly, yet maintain obsequious support for remaining in the EU, an institution which, at it's core, is anathema to both. Same goes for NATO. Some mental gymnastics at play there. 

Edited by AlexJones
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On ‎13‎/‎05‎/‎2016 at 0:53 AM, Charles Bannerman said:

You mean you actually LIKE loads of scaffolding about the place?

Anyway.... whoever heard of a negative account of a pantomime?

I thought even you would have been able to work out that you are unable to get all the work done to these buildings without putting up scaffolding :lol:

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1 hour ago, robbylad said:

How do you know it was their van Charles? Surely you didn't follow them out to see if it was?

Well apart from there being nobody else in the shop looking as correspondingly ridiculous as the van itself, seeing them get back into it as I drove away did seem to be a pretty decent, albeit fairly unnecessary, clue.

Edited by Charles Bannerman
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