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Naelifts

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Can we all just settle down now please. Once again one good performance and a point and the wolves have been called off. How many times have we seen this? Richie is here to stay......there are no alternatives. The players are more than good enough. The manager will learn. We, the supporters, are as much a factor in shaping the rest of the season. So, enough of polls .........let us all unite and sing lustily from the terraces and carry our great wee club over the line.

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1 hour ago, Naelifts said:

Can we all just settle down now please. Once again one good performance and a point and the wolves have been called off. How many times have we seen this? Richie is here to stay......there are no alternatives. The players are more than good enough. The manager will learn. We, the supporters, are as much a factor in shaping the rest of the season. So, enough of polls .........let us all unite and sing lustily from the terraces and carry our great wee club over the line.

I did briefly misread the above words and assumed we had to sing with in a Marilyn Munro, happy birthday to you stylee and wondered if that would actually help the players, lol. 

Sexily sing he scores when he wants !

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We are on the worst run in our clubs history, we are bottom of the table and are six points away from safety.  Our next three league matches are against Hearts, Rangers and Celtic, all games we will be heavily favoured to lose.  Assume that we get through those games with the same gap, we'll need to make up six points on someone in the last eleven games.  Can anyone honestly say that we are capable of doing that?

We have been abysmal this season, of all the regular players who would anyone say has had a good season?  Tremarco, perhaps?  Other than him I can't think of anyone who has performed to the levels required.  We have a goalkeeper who constantly makes mistakes that cost us goals and matches, a defence who constantly present the ball to the opposition, a midfield who can't use the ball to attack or cover the ground to defend, attackers who can't score or create chances, notwithstanding the last-minute loan signing on deadline day.  On top of this we have a manager who makes constant changes to no effect, doesn't appear to have a plan, doesn't seem able to organise the team properly and can't get a win.

If we hadn't appointed Foran and had recruited someone externally who had this record fans would be far less forgiving.  Foran is a legend as a player but we are in serious danger of being relegated and falling down the Dunfermline / St Miren shaped hole of lower league obscurity.  

The hope has to be that we make a huge improvement in the next ten games or so because if we continue to play the way we have this season we are going down, it's a certainty.

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2 hours ago, ictchris said:

We are on the worst run in our clubs history, we are bottom of the table and are six points away from safety.  Our next three league matches are against Hearts, Rangers and Celtic, all games we will be heavily favoured to lose.  Assume that we get through those games with the same gap, we'll need to make up six points on someone in the last eleven games.  Can anyone honestly say that we are capable of doing that?

We have been abysmal this season, of all the regular players who would anyone say has had a good season?  Tremarco, perhaps?  Other than him I can't think of anyone who has performed to the levels required.  We have a goalkeeper who constantly makes mistakes that cost us goals and matches, a defence who constantly present the ball to the opposition, a midfield who can't use the ball to attack or cover the ground to defend, attackers who can't score or create chances, notwithstanding the last-minute loan signing on deadline day.  On top of this we have a manager who makes constant changes to no effect, doesn't appear to have a plan, doesn't seem able to organise the team properly and can't get a win.

If we hadn't appointed Foran and had recruited someone externally who had this record fans would be far less forgiving.  Foran is a legend as a player but we are in serious danger of being relegated and falling down the Dunfermline / St Miren shaped hole of lower league obscurity.  

The hope has to be that we make a huge improvement in the next ten games or so because if we continue to play the way we have this season we are going down, it's a certainty.

Couldn't agree more with a lot of that, however some seem to think that fighting back to draw 2-2 against an average Dundee team is turning the corner and going to propel us upwards, however I am more reserved and will rather wait and see if this is progress or just a one off improvement. For some Foran can do no wrong and its obvious that he still doesn't know his best team and has limited ability to vary the tactics making us very predictable. The parallels between us this season and DUtd are there for all to see - and in some ways worryingly we have brought in the strike force that helped take them down to try keep us up. We are in dire straights and just to emphasise that - last league win was end of Oct away and last home win was Sept!!!

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1 hour ago, bdu98196 said:

Couldn't agree more with a lot of that, however some seem to think that fighting back to draw 2-2 against an average Dundee team is turning the corner and going to propel us upwards, however I am more reserved and will rather wait and see if this is progress or just a one off improvement. For some Foran can do no wrong and its obvious that he still doesn't know his best team and has limited ability to vary the tactics making us very predictable. The parallels between us this season and DUtd are there for all to see - and in some ways worryingly we have brought in the strike force that helped take them down to try keep us up. We are in dire straights and just to emphasise that - last league win was end of Oct away and last home win was Sept!!!

Cannot disagree with the stats no home win since Sept is certainly relegation form and yes a 2 each draw against a poor Dundee side should not be overly celebrated, but the attacking performance was so much better than the previous week. Good movement and creating good chances.

Defensively though we were very poor as we have been all season, yet in the window we never strengthened at all. Why not ? 

Is McNaughton out for the whole season? Anybody know ?     

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Remember the season when that joke of a side Gretna were in the top flight and went into administration? Their longest winless run was merely 10, not 13+, and at this stage of the season they had 3 wins, same as us. Just saying!

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Relegation then administration is that the prospect, things that bad you think? 

Part Time football must be a reality if we go down, cannot sustain full time football on the pitiful attendances we get. Must have been just slightly over 2000 home supporters on Sat, now that is a  worry.  

  

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4 hours ago, forresjags said:

Relegation then administration is that the prospect, things that bad you think? 

Part Time football must be a reality if we go down, cannot sustain full time football on the pitiful attendances we get. Must have been just slightly over 2000 home supporters on Sat, now that is a  worry.  

  

We need to get a sense of perspective. Yes, relegation, although a distinct possibility is far from inevitable and, if we can show the same sort of spirit as for most of the Dundee game we stand a reasonable chance of staying up.

However, even if we do go down, although there will be very significant financial implications, we have been prudently run and will not face the prospect of administration nor are we likely to have to go part time although the wage bill will have to be trimmed and, sadly, some good people behind the scenes will probably lose their jobs.

Relegation, if it happens, will be a huge blow but it won't be a fatal one especially if the fans stick by the team in the Championship but, right now, the task is for everyone to pull together and turn this around so that we don't face that prospect.

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if we want to be certain of avoiding relegation we have to finish 10th.  Here are the points totals for a tenth placed finish in the SPL and the Scottish Premiership in the last ten seasons

06/07 - Motherwell - 38 pts / Points Per game - 1

07/08 - St Mirren - 41 pts / PPG - 1.07

08/09 - Falkirk - 38 pts / PPG - 1

09/10 - St Mirren - 34 pts / PPG - 0.89

10/11 - Hibs - 37 pts / PPG - 0.97

11/12 - ICT - 39 pts / PPG - 1.02

12/13 - Hearts - 44 pts / PPG - 1.15

13/14 - Partick Thistle - 38 pts / PPG - 1

14/15 - Kilmarnock - 41 pts / PPG - 1.07

15/16 - Hamilton - 43 pts / PPG - 1.13

The average tenth places team has 39 points and a PPG of 1.02.

So far this season we have 18 points and a PPG of 0.75 in 24 games.  So to make it to the average level that assures safety we need to win 21 points in the final 14 games, a PPG of 1.5  To put that into context, that would be the PPG ratio we had during season 2013/14 when we finished fifth and got to the league cup final, our second best season ever in the top flight.  That's the sort of level of achievement we need for the rest of the season, double what we've done so far.  And that's to get 39 points - as you can see in five of the last ten seasons that wouldn't actually be enough.  We've won 3 / 24 league games this season - realistically to get 21 points in 14 games we'll need to win a very minimum of five games.  I'd say that we need to win all of our home games up until the split, excluding Celtic and maybe Rangers .  Then we need to look at winning away to Partick Thistle and Motherwell.  Really going unbeaten between now and the split is a minimum requirement to stay up, unless we lose three and win six or lose four and win five.  That might put us in a decent position.

I haven't seen anything from this team that suggests we are going to do that.  Our best chance is for one or more teams to go on a terrible run and then we can overhaul them and try to win the play-off.  The best case scenario is that Mckay's return boosts us by stretching opposition teams, taking the pressure off our defence and making us more threatening.  We need the underperforming players (all of them really) to suddenly improve and start playing at levels we've seen previously from them.

I hope it happens but the far more likely outcome is that we can't do it and we are relegated.

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30 minutes ago, ictchris said:

if we want to be certain of avoiding relegation we have to finish 10th.  Here are the points totals for a tenth placed finish in the SPL and the Scottish Premiership in the last ten seasons

06/07 - Motherwell - 38 pts / Points Per game - 1

07/08 - St Mirren - 41 pts / PPG - 1.07

08/09 - Falkirk - 38 pts / PPG - 1

09/10 - St Mirren - 34 pts / PPG - 0.89

10/11 - Hibs - 37 pts / PPG - 0.97

11/12 - ICT - 39 pts / PPG - 1.02

12/13 - Hearts - 44 pts / PPG - 1.15

13/14 - Partick Thistle - 38 pts / PPG - 1

14/15 - Kilmarnock - 41 pts / PPG - 1.07

15/16 - Hamilton - 43 pts / PPG - 1.13

The average tenth places team has 39 points and a PPG of 1.02.

So far this season we have 18 points and a PPG of 0.75 in 24 games.  So to make it to the average level that assures safety we need to win 21 points in the final 14 games, a PPG of 1.5  To put that into context, that would be the PPG ratio we had during season 2013/14 when we finished fifth and got to the league cup final, our second best season ever in the top flight.  That's the sort of level of achievement we need for the rest of the season, double what we've done so far.  And that's to get 39 points - as you can see in five of the last ten seasons that wouldn't actually be enough.  We've won 3 / 24 league games this season - realistically to get 21 points in 14 games we'll need to win a very minimum of five games.  I'd say that we need to win all of our home games up until the split, excluding Celtic and maybe Rangers .  Then we need to look at winning away to Partick Thistle and Motherwell.  Really going unbeaten between now and the split is a minimum requirement to stay up, unless we lose three and win six or lose four and win five.  That might put us in a decent position.

I haven't seen anything from this team that suggests we are going to do that.  Our best chance is for one or more teams to go on a terrible run and then we can overhaul them and try to win the play-off.  The best case scenario is that Mckay's return boosts us by stretching opposition teams, taking the pressure off our defence and making us more threatening.  We need the underperforming players (all of them really) to suddenly improve and start playing at levels we've seen previously from them.

I hope it happens but the far more likely outcome is that we can't do it and we are relegated.

the thing about stats is that they can be interpreted in many ways, and the same stats can be used to support two opposing arguments.

i'm not going to refer to the stats and ppg numbers above as they are irrelevant.  in none of the seasons above was the league so tight and competative. whilst, yes, we are in a relegation battle, so are 6 other teams! 6 points separate the bottom 7 teams.

and yes, 10th spot is the 'holy grail' but really, the only truly SAFE position is the final berth in the top 6.  I'm sure there will be a 6-way relegation playoff over the last 5 games of the season, and what we have to do is ensure we are with the pack at that point.  ideally over the next three games which we 'shouldnt' get anything, we need to gain ground on hamilton, then we're all gravy!

dont pay too much attention to previous years.  its this year that counts.

we can. and we will prevail!!  

edit - knowing our luck we'll do something stupid like take 4 points from the next three home games then lose to partick

Edited by ictfcsince94
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Motherwell in 5th place have only 1.04 ppg and must by any measure also consider themselves in the relegation battle.  We are very fortunate that the table is not more stretched out but we do now need to pick up a few wins if we are to survive.  Saturday's attacking performance will have given us confidence that we can score goals but we simply must address the failings at the back.  

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I would chuck those stats in the bin tbh. No offence meant but Rangers and underperforming bigger clubs have given a false reading over the last few seasons maybe it would be far lower otherwise.

Every game now is a give it your all match.

Hopefully that will bring a good few points our way. 

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However if you like stats, According to the BBC, we had 13 shots with 10 on target on Saturday.

Go back to our 2-1 Dundee defeat and it was 20 shots and only 3 on target.

Only one shot on goal every 30 minutes.

That tells me things are vastly improving

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