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The Election


Kingsmills

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37 minutes ago, Yngwie said:

After getting countless leaflets through the door from all the main parties in recent weeks, I got my first one from Alba today. Rather than chuck it straight in the recycling bin with all the others I had a look and what was interesting was that the Alex party made no mention whatsoever of Alex.

Which might have something to do with the fact that his personal approval ratings are, by a margin, lower than that of the Prime Minister.

That is quite an achievement right at the moment !

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As far as election literature is concerned, by far the most I have had through the door is from the Lib Dems which strikes me as an immensely inefficient use of their relatively limited resources as I live in Aberdeenshire West which is a straight battle between the Tories and the SNP.

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I’m always amused getting leaflets from the Greens, given they want to save the environment.

I’m sure they will claim they are made of recycled paper, but that still needs energy to produce it, and I’d be amazed if it is all green energy. 

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I thought that the Channel 4 leader's debate was a bit of a shambolic shouting match generating more heat than light and moving the debate on not a jot.

Sturgeon, Sarwar, Harvie and Rennie all got their points across and none landed any significant blow on any of the others with no clear winner.

However, yet again, there was a very clear loser in Douglas Ross.

I never thought that I would say this but I was feeling genuinely sorry for him by the end.

In contrast to the formidable Ruth Davidson, Ross is inexperienced, impetuous, naive and increasingly out of his depth. If last night's debate had been a boxing match the referee would have stopped it half way through to prevent him suffering more damage.

Ross will be elected to Holyrood without doubt as the Conservatives have placed him at the top of their regional list candidates but, should the Tories once more come second, he will be an appallingly ineffective leader of the opposition.

I am a supporter of the SNP and the Scottish government but, especially after 14 years in power, appreciate that there needs to be a strong and effective opposition to hold that government to account.

To be fair to Ruth Davidson, it was a role she performed extremely well and effectively, Jackson Carlaw very much less so but Douglas Ross has now clearly demonstrated that he is not able to rise above the standard of a mediocre Moray councillor whatever the scale of his misplaced personal ambition.

For that reason, and for the sake of the country, I hope that Labour finish runners up in this one horse race as, in their new leader, we would at least have a competent and articulate leader of the opposition.

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Here we are now in sight of the finishing line in this marathon six week campaign.

Has anything much changed since the starting gun was fired ? Not much in my view.

The SNP will, without doubt, be far and away the largest party with far and away the most number of seats. However, just like at the start, there is doubt about whether they will cross the psychologically and politically important line of achieving an absolute majority in a system designed to prevent exactly that. My sense is that they may just fall short by one or two seats.

Then we have the battle for second place where it appears that, despite the personal popularity of Anas Sarwar and the unpopularity of Douglas Ross, the Tories seem likely to hold off Labour, albeit with each losing 2 or 3 seats to independence supporting parties.

The Lib Dems look like remaining very much on the margins with no more seats than they currently have thus falling further behind the Greens who look like adding between 3 and 5.

The only remaining intrigue is the fate of Alba who, depending on which polling company you trust, could end up with anything from 0 to 8 seats.

In summary, it appears that we are heading for a parliament with a greater majority of independence supporting MSPs than the last one but that increase may come largely, or even solely, from party(s) other than the party of government.

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And your predictions for St Albans City & District Council?  :lol:

Rather bizarrely, we have had literature only from the Lib Dems.  We also have Con, Lab, Green and Reform standing, but have seen or heard nothing from them.

There is no overall control of the council - Lib Dems and Cons have almost the same number of councillors, with a smattering of the others holding the balance of power.  I would have thought that the Cons would at least make an effort to try to gain control.

Added an hour later: we have just had our third leaflet from the Lib Dems.  Still nothing from the others. 

Edited by snorbens_caleyman
more bumph
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3 hours ago, snorbens_caleyman said:

And your predictions for St Albans City & District Council?  :lol:

Rather bizarrely, we have had literature only from the Lib Dems.  We also have Con, Lab, Green and Reform standing, but have seen or heard nothing from them.

There is no overall control of the council - Lib Dems and Cons have almost the same number of councillors, with a smattering of the others holding the balance of power.  I would have thought that the Cons would at least make an effort to try to gain control.

Added an hour later: we have just had our third leaflet from the Lib Dems.  Still nothing from the others. 

That's nothing. I have 2,000 SNP leaflets in my garage right now 😁

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5 hours ago, Kingsmills said:

That's nothing. I have 2,000 SNP leaflets in my garage right now 😁

You better get them posted through peoples letterboxes for the final push for votes :wink:

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48 minutes ago, Yngwie said:

If you pass them over to me, I’ll make sure they reach their appropriate destination. :smile:

I am under no illusion as to where the majority will end up. However, for the sake of the environment, I hope that the recipients choose the right receptical.

Just as a, more serious,  footnote, can I say that the next parliament will be the poorer for the absence of Dave Stewart.

Notwithstanding our political differences, not least on the constitution, he did a sterling job in representing and promoting the Highlands for so many years and his contribution will be much missed.

Edited by Kingsmills
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The fourth and final leader's debate was a somewhat more civilised affair relatively well hosted by Glen Campbell.

However, I don't think we learned anything new.

The one thing I have learned is that Lorna Slater is a better and more persuasive debater than Patrick Harvie notwithstanding the latter's greater experience.

I doubt that has changed many minds at all.

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Well it's the big day tomorrow for those that haven't done a postal vote like me.  Although I have never been a Labour voter I do hope that they come in second to the Tories :wink:

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For those who, like me, are voting in person today, don't forget to wear a face covering and pring your own pencil !

Finally, whoever you intend to vote for, please vote.

It's a democratic right which was, particularly for women of all classes and working class men, very hard won.

Edited by Kingsmills
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24 hours after the polls closed and we are, more or less, where we were at the outset.

We know that the SNP will be in power with, far and away, the most number of seats, we know that there will be a pro independence majority, probably an increased one with the SNP being a seat or two either side of an absolute majority but, on balance, just falling short.

Looks likely now that the Tories will retain second place ahead of Labour but with each losing perhaps a couple of seats.

The Lib Dems will remain probably on 5 seats and will, once again, cede fourth place to the Greens who are likely to gain 3 or 4 seats.

What has become clearer is that Alba is now likely not to win a single seat.

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I am happy with the results so far but think there will be a few surprises once the list results start coming in tomorrow it might be like the football hoping for a win but end up happy to settle for a draw :lol:

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6 hours ago, IBM said:

I am happy with the results so far but think there will be a few surprises once the list results start coming in tomorrow it might be like the football hoping for a win but end up happy to settle for a draw :lol:

There will be a win. It's the margin of victory that's in doubt.

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If the BBC prediction is right, there will be little change in the make up of MSPs. SNP and Conservatives unchanged, the Greens up 3, Labour down 2 and the Lib Dem’s down 1. Alba nowhere.

The constituency vote is almost exactly 50/50 for pro-independence and unionist parties.

Edited by Robert
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2 minutes ago, dougiedanger said:

How come there are so many Tories out your way?

There are thousands of Lib Dems who would rather vote Conservative than countenance the people of Scotland having the opportunity to decide on their own future.

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Alba got 2.3% of the vote in the North East, so we are spared Alec Salmond reappearing at Holyrood.

Will he now quietly disappear or has he something else up his sleeve?

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10 minutes ago, Robert said:

Alba got 2.3% of the vote in the North East, so we are spared Alec Salmond reappearing at Holyrood.

Will he now quietly disappear or has he something else up his sleeve?

I think he should quietly retire but I don't think he will.

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2 hours ago, Kingsmills said:

There are thousands of Lib Dems who would rather vote Conservative than countenance the people of Scotland having the opportunity to decide on their own future.

By voting tactically, they are deciding their own future. A future without any more 'once in a generation ' referendums.🤣

 

 

 

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