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  1. hislopsoffsideagain
    On the one hand, it must be noted that these figures are essentially a year old, as they are for the 2018/19 season. There can also be pretty legitimate reasons for clubs either losing money or not making as much as expected, such as investment in infrastructure.

    On the other hand, we now have access to the 2018/19 season accounts for eighteen of Scotland's twenty-two full-time SPFL clubs (assuming no-one is counting Airdrie as full-time yet). We also have an idea of what's to come in two other sets. Of those twenty clubs, just eight turned a profit last season. Most of those eight come with a caveat of sorts as well. The rest were in the red, and in a number of cases spectacularly so.

    That can't be healthy.

    Today let's take a closer look at the twelve clubs that were in the 2018/19 Premiership. If I get round to it, I'll put up a further post looking at the state of play in the lower tiers.


    SOME THOUGHTS FIRST
    There's nothing to suggest that any of these clubs are in imminent financial distress (though as explained in the link further on the situation at Rangers is complicated to say the least). There are two areas of concern that I can see.

    The first is what it takes for clubs to run a profit, full stop. It seems that, if a club finishes in the league position one would expect given their budget, only gets through a round or two in the cups and doesn't sell a player for at least a high six-figure fee - a realistic outcome, basically - they will lose money. I can't see how that is a good thing in the long-term. It also means that clubs are running to stand still, in that they are having to budget higher than they really should just to keep themselves at the level they are at, in the hope that they hit the jackpot in one of the above areas every so often.

    The second is the potential effect of relegation. The experience of recently demoted sides is that turnover falls by about a third on going down. Long-term player contracts are not all that common at all but the biggest Scottish clubs so often a rapid cut in the playing budget is possible, but that in itself is rarely sufficient to deal with such a rapid drop in income. Those clubs struggling to break even as it is would face proper trouble if they ended up in the Championship.

    (addendum - almost at the same time as this blog was published, this story about the potential effect of coronavirus on Scottish football clubs went up. Given the high dependence of gate receipts, I can absolutely believe this would cause significant problems.)

    Onwards...

    IN PROFIT
    CELTIC
    TURNOVER: £83.4m (2017/18: £101.6m)
    PROFIT: £8.7m (2017/18: £17.3m)

    Celtic made a profit of £11m on transfers in 2018/19, which meant they were still profitable despite their turnover taking a big hit from missing out on the Champions League. That's the way of it for them at the moment - either get to the Group Stage or make up the shortfall by selling a player, as they have done again this season with Kieran Tierney. The club also spent a decent amount of cash on infrastructure, such as (shudder) disco lights. With £39m in the bank as of last summer, they are in rude financial health.

    HEARTS
    TURNOVER: £15.1m (2017/18: £12.1m)
    PROFIT: £1.6m (2017/18: £1.8m)

    Hearts' staff costs for last season were £8.2m, which puts them fourth in Scotland. Whilst their profit looks impressive, they received £3.25m in donations and Ann Budge described it as "a challenging year on and off the pitch".


    HIBERNIAN
    TURNOVER: not known yet (2017/18: £9.5m)
    PROFIT: £2m (2017/18: £214k)

    That profit looks juicy for Hibs, who haven't yet published their accounts but had their AGM at the end of February. But it comes off £2.8m of profit in the transfer market thanks to the sale of John McGinn. New owner Ron Gordon said himself that "without the McGinn money, the club would have made a significant loss".

    But Gordon has paid off the club's mortgage and invested a seven figure sum that leaves them with £5.5m in the bank. That looks like a pretty decent platform to build from. He has made it clear that he intends Hibs to be profitable going forward...but they all say that, don't they?


    KILMARNOCK
    TURNOVER: £6.6m (2017/18: £5.1m)
    PROFIT: £126k (2017/18: loss of £180k)

    Given Killie finished third in the table, I expected profits to be higher than this; if they had come fourth, they would have posted a loss. They do seem to have spent a fair bit on infrastructure - not least the laying of a new artificial pitch, and the wages to turnover ratio is fine. Apparently the budget was increased for this season, which means it will be interesting to see what effect a lower league finish and the binning of Angelo Alessio has on finances going forward.


    LIVINGSTON
    TURNOVER: not known yet (2017/18: £1.4m)
    PROFIT: not known yet (2017/18: £46k)

    I'm told by Livingston fans that Chief Executive John Ward has recently said the club made a small profit in 2018/19, but accounts have not been filed yet. Their turnover will have jumped spectacularly after their promotion to the Premiership


    ST MIRREN
    TURNOVER: £4.1m (2017/18: £2.8m)
    PROFIT: £99k (2017/18: £77k)

    It's notable that the Buddies made £1m from 'profit on disposal of player registrations' which in fact is their share of the fee for John McGinn's move from Hibs to Aston Villa. Without that, they wouldn't be in profit. That said the Buddies had to pay off Alan Stubbs too. And with the McGinn money coming in early in the season it's likely that it was added to the budget.

    Promotion meant nearly half a million more in gate receipts and £600,000 more in prize money. The total wage bill for staff leapt from £2m to £3.2m which pretty much tied up the whole of the extra income. But they do have nearly £700,000 in the bank for rainy days. The club continues to plan for Fan Ownership, perhaps as soon as 2021.


    LOSSMAKING
    ABERDEEN
    TURNOVER: £15.9m (2017/18: £15.4m)
    LOSSES: £1m (2017/18: £800k)

    The Dons increased their turnover, but increased their losses as well. That's due to a combination of another increase in the wage bill from £8.5m to £9.2m and finishing lower in the league. The good news is that new chairman Dave Cormack has brought in considerable new investment. On the other hand, the move to a new stadium at Kingsford could be delayed till 2023.


    DUNDEE
    TURNOVER: £3.9m (2017/18: £4.6m)
    LOSSES: £1.8m (2017/18: £425k)

    Eek. Dundee have run a loss every single year since Tim Keyes took over the club, and its just as well he doesn't look like turning off the money tap any time soon. Getting rid of two different managers, along with pretty much bringing in an entirely new squad for Jim McIntyre, cost a fortune. Relegation will only reduce income further, and their accounts explain that significant losses are expected for this season and the next, with Keyes underwriting those. That said, with several million quid spaffed up against a wall since 2013, your guess is as good as mine as to where the cash for their proposed new ground will come from.


    MOTHERWELL
    TURNOVER: £4.6m (2017/18: £6.8m)
    LOSSES: £436k (2017/18: profit of £1.7m)

    2017/18 wasn't as successful on the park as 2016/17, and it showed. The wage bill stayed the same but with no cup runs, reduced prize money and reduced player sales (which still totalled £700k, mind) turnover dropped by a whopping 35%. They also spent a significant amount of the previous year's profit on infrastructure. Going forward, 'Well have now paid off loans to John Boyle and Les Hutchison, which leaves them with only £80k in debt now. But its no surprise that the accounts state "it is imperative to the good health and sustainability of Motherwell" that the club continues to do well out of selling on players; hopefully that big fee for David Turnbull will come after all.


    RANGERS
    TURNOVER: £53.2m (2017/18: £32.6m)
    LOSSES: £11.3m (2017/18: £14.3m)

    I wrote about Rangers' financial situation when these were published a few months ago.


    ST JOHNSTONE
    TURNOVER: not reported (2017/18 - not reported)
    LOSSES: £149k (2017/18 - £258k)

    Chairman Steve Brown has been a right sad sack in recent weeks, claiming the club has the sixth highest wage bill in the country (I dispute this) and suggesting losses for 2019/20 will be much higher. St. Johnstone still had £2m in the bank as of last summer which should protect them from any problems in the immediate future.


    NOT KNOWN
    HAMILTON ACCIES publish truncated accounts, as is their wont because of their low turnover. My understanding (which may be wrong) is that they lost nearly £500,000 in 2017/18, mostly because of a vishing scam. The 2018/19 accounts should be better, especially with £240,000 from Aberdeen for Lewis Ferguson.


    I hope this information is useful...and most of all I hope it is right! Please let me know any errors and I'll amend them.

    PS Kieran Maguire, to be found on Twitter at @PriceOfFootball, is the place to go for analysis of club accounts and finances, and covers Scottish clubs just as keenly as English ones.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  2. hislopsoffsideagain
    Those of you who have read my previews before (all three of you) will know that I put a large onus on budget as a factor in how well clubs will do.
    And with good reason. After all, last season League Two had Kelty Hearts; the season before that there was Queen's Park, who won the title by 16 points in a campaign only 22 games long; in 2019-20 Cove Rangers were 13 points clear when the final quarter was written off. 
    And for 2022-23 we have, well, nobody who really stands out. Which should mean a wide-open title race.
    There are maybe three teams I'm confident will not be in with a shout (famous last words...). The first is newly promoted Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic who simply do not have the resources that the likes of Kelty and Cove boasted when they came up and who so far have made only modest additions to the squad that got them up in the first place. Sweet stories like that of striker Kieran McGachie, who played for the club when they were still in the Junior ranks, only take you so far. But they'll be hoping the nous of veteran striker Kevin Smith (signed from East Fife) will help establish them in the SPFL. And let's face it, the champions of tier 5 are generally at least mid-table League Two standard.
    The next to be written off are Albion Rovers, partly because it's no secret that their wage bill is essentially buttons. Manager Brian Reid has moaned that everyone dismisses them as relegation candidates out of ignorance, but really it's because Rovers have finished in the bottom half of League Two four years in a row. Reid has attracted Ayrton Sonkur from Stranraer and Kyle Fleming from Annan, and most crucially he convinced midfielder Charlie Reilly to stay another season. But three players decamped to Dumbarton, including skipper Aron Lynas, and the loss of Kyle Doherty and Declan Byrne leaves them pretty lightweight up top.
    And then there's Elgin City whose recruitment seems more limited by geography than ever. Their most southern signing of the summer came from Jeanfield Swifts and the exits of Euan Spark and Conor O'Keefe leave them rather short of depth. Expect a number of loan signings before the end of August, and expect further dependence on striker Kane Hester to fire them out of trouble. Elgin chose to stand by boss Gavin Price by bringing in Jim Weir as his assistant in a relationship that has a very Evans-Houllier feel, and one suspects a similar endgame.
    What about the top end? Obviously the clubs relegated from League One come to mind. Dumbarton stood by boss Steve Farrell despite a second consecutive relegation from that division (he took Stranraer down the year before) and gave him licence to bring in ten new players, with an onus on experience in League One or Two. Keeper Brett Long, defender Aron Lynas, midfielder Ally Love and forward Ryan Wallace should add nicely to the backbone provided by Gregor Buchanan and Ryan McGeever at the back and Joe McKee and Stuart Carswell in the middle of the park.
    East Fife also took the chance to rip it up and start again; Stevie Crawford has signed a mixture of experience (goalkeeper Allan Fleming and forward Alan Trouten) and youth (defenders Sam Denham and Lucas Williamson and forward Ryan Schiavone) but has also lost most of the better players he inherited midway through last season. The midfield looks particularly underwhelming and the Methil side are likely to be very active in the market in weeks to come.
    Annan Athletic are the apparent exception to my beloved budget rule. They were narrowly denied promotion in the playoff final by Edinburgh City and enter their fifteenth season as a league side...and as a fourth tier side. Manager Peter Murphy is very much this division's "why on earth is he not managing at a higher level?" candidate as he seems to lose his best players every summer and yet still manage to cobble together a competitive team despite one of the smallest budgets. Owen Moxon, who has got his big move to Carlisle United, will be their biggest loss by some way this time around while former Leeds youth Josh Galloway is probably the most intriguing of a typically unexciting bunch of new faces who will probably go on to do perfectly well, just like their predecessors. Their outstanding League Cup campaign suggest they should be thereabouts again.
    One place above Annan in the table last season, Forfar Athletic lost in the playoff semis to the borderers but will fancy they can build on that. Forfar used the loan system well last year and expect them to do the same in weeks to come; in the meantime Roberto Nditi, Tomas Brindley and James Keatings (if he stays fit) look like great additions. The midfield quartet of Kyle Hutton, Craig Slater, Craig Thomson and Callum Moore might be the strongest in the league. They will surely be in the mix again.
    Stenhousemuir have also been super-busy wheeling and dealing. Stephen Swift brought in an entire squad last year and has ditched the players that didn't work out to make space for another ten signings. They got better as the season went on and will look to carry that momentum. 35 year old Craig Bryson is League Two's marquee signing this window but keeper Conor Brennan and defender Daniel Higgins should also strengthen them. There are high hopes that ex-Stranraer frontman Matt Yates and lower league goal machine Will Sewell can provide plenty of firepower.
    As for Stranraer, they underwhelmed under Jamie Hamill last time out and to be honest they haven't done much to suggest they're on the up. Bringing Scott MacLean back north might provide a creative spark but a number of key players including the aforementioned Sonkur and Yates plus Sean Burns have moved on. They also have very little up top other than 38 year old Darryl Duffy.
    And finally there's Stirling Albion, who probably underachieved under Kevin Rutkiewicz even if he suggested otherwise on his departure. Darren Young knows this level well and went back to former club East Fife for a trio of players including winger Danny Denholm. Robert Thomson is a good solid striker and loanee Harrison Clark should be better than this level. Stirling certainly have ambitions to finish above mid-table.
    And therefore my predicted table is:
    1. FORFAR ATHLETIC
    2. ANNAN ATHLETIC3. DUMBARTON4. STENHOUSEMUIR
    5. STIRLING ALBION6. BONNYRIGG ROSE ATHLETIC7. EAST FIFE8. STRANRAER9. ELGIN CITY
    10. ALBION ROVERS
    Fans of the bottom trio might want to screenshot this so they can use it against me in nine months time...
    Here, for interest, are what the Twitterati think...



    Let's see who's right, me or the folk who clearly know this division a whole lot better!


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 
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  3. hislopsoffsideagain
    At one end of the scale, Scottish football finances are in rude health. Celtic and Rangers both reached the promised land of the Champions League group stages this season, which means megabucks. Whilst Rangers have had some interesting spending habits over much of the last decade, this along with the sale of Calvin Bassey will surely leave them no longer dependent on the riches of Douglas Park.


    But 2023 could be a very difficult year for a number of Scottish football clubs. The main reason for this is the rising cost of, well, everything. Day-to-day running of a club has never been more expensive. Ditto travelling. And whilst attendances have been remarkably robust up till now the cost of living crisis is taking its toll on millions and tickets to the fitba will prove an unnecessary luxury for plenty.


    The main focus of concern is the Scottish Championship. There are no particular warning sirens going off at any top flight clubs right now - and after the Setanta debacle, the Rangers liquidation and the end of Romanov at Hearts we all have a pretty good idea of when the midden is heading for the windmill. At Aberdeen, Hearts, Hibs and Dundee United - in terms of support, the next four biggest clubs in the country - it helps to have decent financial backing. All but the Jambos have a rich owner; Hearts have a seven figure sum of 'donations' coming into the club every year related to fan ownership, as well as wealthy individuals.


    Hearts will be a particularly interesting case to watch going forward. Their participation in the European Conference League - which is guaranteed for the Cup winner/third placed team in the league (if the cup is won by either of the top two) - earned them millions. Their two wins in the group stage alone made them nearly half the prize money that they got for coming third in the Premiership last season. Whilst it is still breadcrumbs compared to the vast riches the Old Firm bring in, it gives them a significant financial boost in comparison with the rest of the domestic opposition. If Robbie Neilson's side can pull off another 'best of the rest' this season - as looks quite likely at the time of writing, then it is conceivable they could find themselves much stronger than the rest of the pack, though still a million billion miles behind the Old Firm.


    As for the rest, one assumes they will be just fine...as long as they stay in the Premiership, or at least get out of the second tier at the first attempt. Kilmarnock spent a lot of money to escape, and I suspect there would have been a huge austerity drive at Rugby Park had they not managed promotion.


    One area where there has been impressive progress has been in recruitment strategy. Scottish clubs are exempt from the same stringent work permit criteria that restricts English clubs from bringing in non-UK players, and many have taken significant advantage. Ange Postecoglu's knowledge of Japan has allowed him to bring such rough diamonds as Reo Hatate, Daizan Maeda and Kyogo Furuhashi to Celtic on the cheap, with more on the way in this transfer window. Other clubs have done well out of Australian players, with Hearts, Dundee United and St. Mirren all boasting players that went to the World Cup with the Socceroos. In general these signings have proven to be unmitigated successes, and almost certainly will have been far cheaper than British equivalents. They also tend to be young and so have potential resale value, as Hearts and St. Mirren will likely find with Kye Rowles and Keanu Baccus respectively.


    I can't help suspecting that eventually some chairmen in the English Football League will cry foul and pressure the Home Office to close this particular loophole, but until then Scottish clubs are going to make hay.


    As I stated earlier, it's clubs further down the ladder that I'm more worried about.


    Part-time teams, less so. Whilst they will also be hit by the same increase in costs as everyone else, they should find it easier to manage because their playing budgets are lower and can be lowered further if necessary (albeit with an effect on the quality on the pitch). Full-time clubs have a wage floor; there is a level of income that a full-time player must receive in order for it to be viable for them to stay full-time. With the cost of living crisis that floor is going to get higher and it is going to become very difficult for some clubs to deal with that without becoming part-time.


    Deloitte's recent description of four unnamed Championship clubs as "showing signs of financial distress" is pretty vague to say the least. However I would note that Dundee, Queen's Park and Ayr United have wealthy owners and are safe unless they pull the plug. Cove Rangers also have plenty of funding whilst fellow part-timers Arbroath are in rude health after last season's successes. As for the other five...well, I would worry about them. Hamilton and Raith Rovers have admitted they can't continue running the way they are, Morton already have the tiniest squad you can get away with (though fan ownership seems to be going pretty smoothly) and there are plenty of rumours in the Highlands that all is not rosy at Inverness Caledonian Thistle. Goodness knows where Partick Thistle are at after all the ownership shenanigans there, though I'd like to think they are less likely to be heading for a Help Ma Boab situation. If there is going to be a catastrophe somewhere in 2023 it will be in this division.


    Hopefully (fingers crossed) there won't be.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 
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  4. hislopsoffsideagain
    As someone with a wicked sense of humour and a deep love of schadenfreude, League One will doubtless bring me lots of joy every season as long as my own team aren't stuck in it. It's a beautiful combination of full-time clubs who feel the seaside leagues are beneath them - and whose players too often play as if they feel the same - and part-time sides who range from battle-hardened, dangerous units to a complete omnishambles (sometimes both in the same season) with everything in between.


    It seems fair to begin with Falkirk, who seem to have Mr Burns' 'You're Stuck Here Forever' demotivational plaque and are onto their gazillionth manager since they crashed down here just over three years ago. The thing is, this time said supremo is John McGlynn, whose wonderful achievements at Raith Rovers included getting them out of this hellhole. It's hard to believe he can't at least make this motley crew the sum of their parts, which in itself would probably be enough to win the division. It just seems mad that players like Coll Donaldson, Paul Watson, Stephen McGinn, Kai Kennedy, Callumn Morrison, Aidan Nesbitt and Gary Oliver are here instead of in the Championship. The trouble will come if they feel the same way, particularly after a scudding or two.


    Dunfermline Athletic are the other big fish in this particular rockpool after a catastrophic relegation. They too have a new manager in James McPake, who I didn't rate at all at Dundee. He has so far mostly stuck with the bunch that went down, either believing he can bring them back to form or because they're all on contracts the club can't get shot of. Again, there are lots of names that on past history belong in the second tier; Aaron Comrie, Graham Dorrans, Chris Hamilton, Kevin O'Hara, Craig Wighton, Nikolay Todorov. You'd think they'll be challengers, but the last time they were relegated to League One we thought the same, and they were stuck for three years until they got the right man in the dugout. Time will tell if they've managed that already.


    Also coming down from the Championship are Queen of the South who didn't really improve much after Wullie Gibson took over from Allan Johnston. Perhaps Gibson deserves a Mulligan now that the veteran player-boss has a chance to mould his own squad. Improving the defence with Stuart Morrison, Ciaran McKenna and David McKay is a good start; bringing back Iain Wilson, Gavin Reilly and Connor Murray was also impressive; but the icing on the cake is the retention of striker Lee Connelly. They are giving this a good go, not least because it's hard to see them being able to remain full-time if they're stuck down here for multiple seasons.


    The last of the full-time (-ish in this case, as they have a bit of a hybrid scheme going on) clubs, Airdrie have had a tumultuous summer with manager Ian Murray leaving for Kirkcaldy and taking star attacker Dylan Easton with him. At the time of writing the club have a tiny squad which includes player-boss Rhys McCabe (only 31 years old!) and his assistant, centre-back Calum Fordyce (age 30!). It's hard to see them repeating last year's second place finish unless McCabe is the next Alex Neil and he gets to sign a platoon of new players by the end of August.


    Of the part-timers, Montrose have been the most consistently impressive in the division in recent years with a string of promotion playoff appearances on the back of a remarkably settled squad and a miracle-worker coach (Stewart Petrie) who doesn't want to give up a lucrative day job to manage at a full-time side. That said, the Gable Endies have brought in minimal reinforcements whilst also losing both Cammy Ballantynes (yes, there were two). There's still plenty of quality though which should stop them slipping too far back.


    They might be usurped by the upstarts from Kelty Hearts though. Kelty breezed through League Two at the first attempt and have aspirations to emulate Cove Rangers. They should be competitive at this level from the word go with a decent sized budget that has allowed them to field the likes of Jamie Barjonas, Michael Tidser, Joe Cardle and Nathan Austin among others. Kevin Thomson's decision to leave in the summer wasn't ideal but they have high hopes for replacement boss John Potter. Can they immediately challenge at the right end?


    Alloa Athletic also fancy they can get in the promotion playoffs, having improved immeasurably after replacing Barry Ferguson with Brian Rice in the dugout. They'll be relying more on Rice's acumen and improving the squad they've got than on making lots of signings but an attack with Ross MacIver and Connor Sammon should score plenty and immortal defender Andy Graham is still there along with other longstanding players such as Scott Taggart, Kevin Cawley and Jon Robertson. It'll be weird without Alan Trouten though.


    As for those perhaps more worried about the drop, FC Edinburgh are obvious candidates given they came fourth in League Two last season before fighting their way through the playoffs. They were much more impressive after Alan Maybury took charge in the spring and have strengthened with the signings of veteran Liam Fontaine and full-back Kieran MacDonald (a regular with Raith and Hamilton the last few seasons) as well as signing Innes Murray permanently. Whether that'll be sufficient to enable them to make the step up is another matter. And the less said about the godawful name change the better...


    There's not a lot of optimism to be found at Clyde who of course no longer have He Who Must Not Be Named scoring shedloads and masking their deficiencies, and who are now playing at New Douglas Park after getting ejected from Cumbernauld. There's been a clearout - including a number of players who declined new deals - and Danny Lennon somehow has to mould a new team without being able to take them to an island for five years first. Holding onto keeper Neil Parry, midfielder Barry Cuddihy and forward Ross Cunningham helps but it could be a tough first campaign as Hamilton's tenants.


    But the most dire situation is in the Blue Toon; Peterhead were so short of numbers for the League Cup games that they drafted in players from the local non-leagues (I'd never even heard of Banchory St. Ternan or Rattray XI) to make up numbers. Geography is a big issue, and they cannot compete with Cove Rangers for the best local part-time players. If there is hope, it is in the return of Ryan Dow to the club and the permanent signing of impressive loanee Danny Strachan. But Jim McInally may not have faced a bigger challenge in his decade at Balmoor than keeping them up this season.


    So here's the inevitably wrong predicted table...


    1. FALKIRK


    2. DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC
    3. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH
    4. KELTY HEARTS


    5. ALLOA ATHLETIC
    6. MONTROSE
    7. AIRDRIEONIANS
    8. FC EDINBURGH


    9. CLYDE


    10. PETERHEAD


    And the Twitter takes on the season ahead:






    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.  
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  5. hislopsoffsideagain
    Maybe it was the realisation that Billy Dodds couldn't even beat Raith Rovers that was the end of him.


    For what it's worth, Caley Thistle only lost to a late goal away from home to a club who went top of the Championship as a result of their victory. And by all accounts the visitors put on their best performance of the season and squandered numerous chances of their own. But Inverness had this absolutely mental record against Rovers where in twenty-three years and thirty-four competitive matches their only defeats had come in penalty shootouts. However bad it got, Raith Rovers was at least a guaranteed point. But not any more.




    Of course, if that was the actual reason for Dodds' dismissal on Sunday night then that would raise significant questions about the people running the club. But then choosing to sack him after the Raith defeat - rather than after one of the many worse performances and results in recent months - raises enough questions. As does the fact that he is only three months into a new two year contract that he was given after ICT's Scottish Cup Final defeat to Celtic.


    Oh, and don't forget how the decision on Dodds' future was left all the way until after that match in early June, which was not exactly a show of confidence in the manager and which can hardly have aided preparations for the new season. Or how, despite the club making somewhere between £1million and £1.5million from the aforementioned cup run, the squad actually seems, on paper and in reality, drastically weaker than it was last season.


    That's not to suggest that Dodds is some sort of victim here. The cup exploits distracted neatly from a lacklustre league campaign as Caley Thistle finished sixth, their lowest finish in twenty-three years (though had they won their last match they would have come third). Whilst some of the criticism of his tactics by supporters was over-the-top, the slow-tempo, possession-based style was exposed by teams that pressed high up the pitch - after all the Scottish Championship is often short of quality but rarely short of energy - and was ineffective when chasing games against defensive-minded teams.


    But Dodds' first season in charge ended with a playoff final where, at half-time in the second leg in Perth, Caley Thistle fancied their chances of promotion before a second-half capitulation to St. Johnstone. He was not the next Sir Alex Ferguson, but nor was he the next Richie Foran. Sometimes things just go stale; his tenure of more than two seasons is well above the current average shelflife of an SPFL manager.


    The biggest concerns stretch back to his appointment in the first place. In March 2021 Dodds was brought in as a coach by Neil McCann, who had taken over temporarily after John Robertson stepped out of the dugout for mental health reasons. When it became clear Robertson was 'moving upstairs' to become sporting director, it was McCann's job if he wanted it...but he didn't want it. A few weeks later Dodds was appointed, to the surprise of nobody even though he had never held such a role at a club before. There was certainly nothing in the public domain to suggest the club had conducted an active search for a replacement or even interviewed outside candidates. This left the feeling that Dodds, who already lived locally, was the cheap and easy option. This turn of events felt very reminiscent of Robertson's appointment as Richie Foran's replacement back in 2017.


    It also leads to understandable suspicion amongst the support that Robertson - whose relationship with the fans has taken a hit recently with his media work for the BBC (or to give out man of the match awards at Brora Rangers) when his club are away from home - will simply be parachuted back in to his old job.


    That would be the cheap and easy move again, but then we come to the fear that this is the way the board have to go. The aforementioned cup windfall seems to have been used to save the directors from paying the bills this season; that is not all that unreasonable given the club made a loss of more than £800,000 in 2021-22. There are lots of rumours flying around suggesting that things are even worse than that, though to be fair such tales have done the rounds since relegation from the Premiership in 2017.


    There is no sign of a wealthy benefactor coming over the horizon any time soon, and when one looks at the list of current shareholders the same old names from two decades ago are still there. Directors come and go but there is no sign that newcomers bring about any meaningful change; the most curious one in recent times is Panos Thomas, a retired orthopaedic surgeon whose only notable role in football previously was as the frontman for an attempted takeover of Watford more than a decade ago by the disgraced businessman Laurence Bassini.


    However in his nine months at the club there has been no sign of anything so exciting happening in the Highlands...except for claims in the last set of accounts that the club is heavily involved in a hydro pump scheme and a battery farm plan, as well as being in position to be part of Inverness' upcoming freeport. If these ideas already sound pie-in-the-sky, the fact they are being touted by CEO Scot Gardiner - who is not exactly well loved amongst Dundee and Hearts supporters for his spells in a similar role at each of these clubs - does not lend them significant credibility.


    And in football financial prudence is rarely rewarded. One has to run just to stand still. Amongst their Championship opponents are Dundee United, Dunfermline, Ayr United, Queen's Park and Raith, all of whom have significant backing from their ownership.


    And if Caley Thistle go any further backward it means relegation. That would surely put their full-time status at risk. If the club goes part-time then, given their location, that would in turn surely mean competing for players in the same sort of pool that the likes of Elgin City fish. There would be no realistic way back to even the Championship under those circumstances.


    In October 2016, St. Mirren pulled the plug on Alex Rae after a nightmare start to their Championship campaign and replaced him with Jack Ross. They still nearly went down that year, but it was the wakeup call they needed. In 2017-18 they were promoted and they have been Premiership stalwarts ever since, a small club punching above their weight in a way rather reminiscent of Caley Thistle a decade ago. Maybe - hopefully - this will be Caley Thistle's St. Mirren moment. Those in charge of the club need to make sure it is, or football in the city may never be the same again.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.    
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  6. hislopsoffsideagain
    It's still more than six months until Euro 2024, and the draw hasn't even been made yet. So of course it's far, far too early to think about who will be in Steve Clarke's squad for the finals. But I'm not going to let that stop me. Rather than just list twenty-three names (current info suggests that the squad size will be cut back to what it was before Covid and Euro 2020), I'm going to break things down by position and look at what options there are, as well as who is most likely to be on the plane to Germany.


    GOALKEEPERS
    Certain to be in the squad: Angus Gunn
    Probably going to be in the squad: Liam Kelly, Zander Clark
    Outside chance: Craig Gordon, Robby McCrorie, Ross Laidlaw
    A left-field option: Jason Steele
    Are we stronger than at Euro 2020? Yes, in that Angus Gunn looks more capable and more reliable than David Marshall was at that tournament. 


    Notes: One of the lessons learned from the Georgia-Norway doubleheader - and an awful lot of Zander Clark flapping - is that we really don't have any depth at the position unless Craig Gordon manages to get himself back to the level he was playing at prior to his broken leg. Liam Kelly and Robby McCrorie emit massive "in the squad because there aren't any other Scottish keepers" vibes. Ross Laidlaw was mentioned by John Carver as someone the management team are aware of. Rumour has it that Brighton's Jason Steele has declined a call-up before, and I doubt he'd enter the fray just to back up Gunn.




    CENTRAL DEFENDERS
    Certain to be in the squad: Kieran Tierney, Jack Hendry, Ryan Porteous
    Probably going to be in the squad: Scott McKenna, Grant Hanley, John Souttar
    Outside chance: Liam Cooper, Dominic Hyam, Liam Lindsay, Ross McCrorie
    A left-field option: Liam Morrison
    Are we stronger than at Euro 2020? Probably, if only because the players now look very well versed in playing a back three (the other lesson learned from the Georgia-Norway doubleheader is we don't seem to be strong enough defensively to get away with a back four). 


    Notes: Kieran Tierney remains key because of his quality in possession and his ability to overlap/underlap Andy Robertson, as well as the fact that there is a big drop off to the next best left-footed centre-back, Liam Cooper. Jack Hendry generally seems the best option on the right, also offering good distribution to go with his height, while Ryan Porteous is the current incumbent in the centre position. Scott McKenna is the next man up if any of that first choice trio are absent, though he hasn't been getting gametime at Nottingham Forest recently. John Souttar finished last season really well for Rangers, but has been injured again recently. If fit, he would have a good chance of getting in. Meanwhile Grant Hanley has been out since the spring with an achilles injury but he was a first choice prior to that so if he gets back to fitness and form he'd be expected to make the squad. Dominic Hyam has been injured recently too but is normally a first choice for Blackburn. The uncapped Liam Lindsay is playing regularly and well for Preston, who are flying just now. Ross McCrorie has yet to play for Bristol City because of illness so he's probably well down the pecking order now; however his versatility might work in his favour. And apparently Liam Morrison has shone on loan for Wigan Athletic; the 20 year old Bayern Munich player is probably one for the future though.




    FULL-BACKS
    Certain to be in the squad: Andrew Robertson, Nathan Patterson, Aaron Hickey
    Probably going to be in the squad:
    Outside chance: Greg Taylor, Anthony Ralston, Calvin Ramsay, Josh Doig, Max Johnston
    A left-field option: Tino Livramento
    Are we stronger than at Euro 2020? Yes, because we've significantly upgraded from Stephen O'Donnell on the right. 


    Notes: Captain Andy Robertson will start at left wing-back and Aaron Hickey on the right; Nathan Patterson will back up the latter unless Tino Livramento declares for Scotland, in which case the Newcastle United player would be in a direct battle with Hickey for a start. Hickey and Tierney would both be more than capable stand-ins for Robertson which means Clarke could potentially skimp on the position. Greg Taylor seems more comfortable in a back four - and didn't look comfortable at all in the Georgia and Norway games. Anthony Ralston is probably too far down the queue just now, while Calvin Ramsay's progress has stalled because of injuries; he hasn't even played yet this season. Josh Doig and Max Johnston have both had call-ups recently to the seniors but are unlikely to be in the reckoning for this tournament.




    CENTRAL MIDFIELDERS
    Certain to be in the squad: John McGinn, Callum McGregor, Scott McTominay, Billy Gilmour, Lewis Ferguson
    Probably going to be in the squad: Kenny McLean, Ryan Jack
    Outside chance: Elliot Anderson
    A left-field option: Hayden Hackney
    Are we stronger than at Euro 2020? Yes, not because personnel have changed much but because we've finally found a role that works for Scott McTominay.


    Notes: Clarke will either play four central midfielders, with McTominay and John McGinn pushed further forward of Callum McGregor and probably Billy Gilmour, or just go for the former trio with a more attack-minded player inserted instead. Gilmour is most effective in games where we dominate possession, which may not be plentiful in the finals. Lewis Ferguson has been terrific at club level in more of a number ten role and it wouldn't be hard to imagine Clarke deploying him there if he continues his current trajectory. Ryan Jack missed Euro 2020 because of injury and is a polarising figure, but I'm not sure anyone in the squad is better as a purely defensive midfielder. However it may be hard to fit in both Jack and Kenny McLean because of the numbers game. McLean got a lot of praise for Clarke after the Norway match and the manager particuarly likes his reliability and tactical discipline. It's not clear if Elliot Anderson, who was called up for one squad and then pulled out through injury, still wants to play for us or hang fire in the hope of a future England call; he is a real prospect though and is talented enough to be in the 23 if he wants to be. Hackney has shone for Middlesbrough but, having played for Scotland under-21s, he has appeared in recent England squads at that age level and also seems to have thrown his lot in with the Three Lions for now.




    ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS
    Certain to be in the squad: Stuart Armstrong, Ryan Christie
    Probably going to be in the squad:
    Outside chance: Ryan Fraser, Ben Doak, Siriki Dembele
    A left-field option: Harvey Barnes
    Are we stronger than at Euro 2020? Not sure we're much different, really.


    Notes: The industrious Stuart Armstrong remains a guy who either squeezes into the starting XI or is one of the first options off the bench. Ryan Christie is probably the best player we have for carrying the ball up the pitch though his recent international performances have not been as good as his efforts for Bournemouth. Given that Clarke may not start any of the listed players and doesn't use a system with wingers, it's hard to justify taking any others unless someone hits form or is felt to offer a spark as a substitute. Ben Doak is clearly going to be special but isn't getting enough game time to confirm whether he's ready yet. Ryan Fraser has done well since joining Southampton but Clarke has been suspicious about his commitment in the past. Siriki Dembele has impressed for Birmingham this season but probably not enough to get on the radar yet. But it does sound like Harvey Barnes is tempted to join up, though recent injuries have made sure we couldn't find out if he would have accepted a call for the last few squads. Barnes would be a huge upgrade on what we have, though squeezing him in on the left might require some tactical tweaking.




    STRIKERS
    Certain to be in the squad: Lyndon Dykes, Che Adams
    Probably going to be in the squad: 
    Outside chance: Jacob Brown, Kevin Nisbet, Lawrence Shankland, Ryan Hardie
    A left-field option: Oli McBurnie
    Are we stronger than at Euro 2020? No. It's mostly the same names.


    Notes: An elite forward would elevate this team so much, in the way Robert Lewandowski and Gareth Bale did for Poland and Wales respectively. Instead we have Lyndon Dykes and Che Adams as our best two options. Dykes' industry and attitude are first-rate and he's better at link-up play than Adams, but the latter is a far superior finisher. Neither can be relied on for more than the odd goal though. The other options are quite the motley crew though, and one would think Clarke would pick a third striker based entirely on form in April and May. At the moment Jacob Brown seems to be that option but he struggled against Norway. Lawrence Shankland did score against Georgia as a sub and has more goals than any of the other candidates this season. Kevin Nisbet hasn't really got going since joining Millwall in the summer. Ryan Hardie of Plymouth has six Championship goals and is as good an option as anyone. And then there's Oli McBurnie, out of the picture for nearly three years but playing regularly (when fit) in the Premier League. He'll win lots of headers, but does he offer much else?


    That's 16 certainties and 7 probables, which of course fits nicely with the numbers. But I bet that a lot will change in a few months time. So shall we look at it again then? We shall.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.    
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  7. hislopsoffsideagain
    In case you haven't noticed, Covid-19 (let's be a bit pedantic and call it that, since there are plenty of other coronaviruses of varying severity, including causes of the common cold) is coming. At the time of writing there are 27 cases in Scotland, but that number is going to increase impressively.

    For what it's worth it seems to me (from my day job perspective as a GP) that the powers that be are dealing with things pretty appropriately at the moment. I'm not an expert in virology or epidemiology (or anything, really) but the advice they're giving right now makes sense to me. And the fact that said advice will change in the next little while as the number of infected people increases also makes sense.

    It does now seems inevitable that some time soon the government will ban large public gatherings. Like, say, football crowds. After all, it's already happening in Ligue 1, La Liga and Primeira Liga. In Italy, where infection rates are higher than anywhere else in Europe, they've gone a step further; all Serie A matches have been postponed till the start of April.

    It's not just the crowds that are the issue. The Premier League has postponed tonight's Manchester City v Arsenal game because Arsenal players have been exposed to someone with Covid-19 and are self-isolating. This will surely become a common issue and matches will have to be called off either one by one or probably en masse.

    And if that's what the experts say should happen here, then so be it. Saving lives is rather more important than twenty-two men chasing a ball.

    If/when that happens, there will be significant knock-on effects for Scottish football.

    More than anywhere else in Europe, Scottish clubs are dependent on matchday income. Postponing matches means that they won't see that cash till further down the road. Playing them behind closed doors means no cash at all.

    Football finance expert Kieran Maguire gave this take on how it will play out for English League One and League Two clubs, which is pretty comparable. By this time of year season ticket proceeds have been spent and clubs are dependent on what they can get from walk-up fans and away supporters, as well as food, programme sales etc. Not many have a rainy day fund to get through this sort of situation.

    It's also possible that clubs will be obliged to refund season ticket holders for games they aren't allowed to attend. One would like to think that most supporters would take that on the chin, but you never know. Having to compensate them in any way would be extremely onerous.

    It's certainly possible that a number of clubs who are already living hand-to-mouth - I'm mainly thinking of full-time teams in the Championship and League One - will be in a right fix. Will someone go bust? I hope not. But it must be a possibility.

    The SPFL and SFA have already noted this. As it stands, their intent is to "endeavour to complete the season and fulfil their obligations under their broadcasting agreements". They said that a week ago. It seems wildly optimistic now.

    If matches are to be postponed, when will they be played? Will they be played at all? What on earth will the SPFL do with the rest of the season? Here are the options that seem to be available. None of them are especially palatable...


    SQUEEZE IN ALL THE POSTPONED GAMES BY THE END OF THE SEASON
    Any matches that are called off are fitted in to the remaining available midweek dates. Everything finishes on time and it's all good.

    The problems with this plan: the last day of the domestic season - the Championship playoff final - is 24 May, with the lower leagues finishing their 'regular season' on 2 May and the Premiership finishing on 17 May. If there is a significant fixture backlog, there aren't many dates available for catchup. And if call-offs start happening before the Premiership split, then that could cause a real headache for schedulers.

    Chances of it happening: this is of course the ideal solution for everyone, but it seems increasinly unlikely circumstances will allow it.


    FINISH THE SEASON EARLY
    Bring forward the end of the season, and declare champions, relegation etc depending on positions at this point. Hearts strongly disapprove of this plan.

    The problems with this plan: obviously there's an element of unfairness. It's also not clear how you would manage cup finals and playoffs in these circumstances. And clubs would miss out on income from their last few home matches.

    Chances of it happening: there would be a significant outcry about 'sporting integrity' which would probably derail this. And the financial knock-on would also be a big problem. It is however the simplest solution, if not necessarily the fairest.


    EXTEND THE SEASON INTO THE SUMMER
    If matches aren't finished by the end of May, just keep playing into June...and onwards, if necessary.

    The problems with this plan: for a start, plenty of clubs have players only contracted till the end of May or even a few weeks before that in the case of lower division teams. Broadcasting and sponsorship agreements also expire around that time. There's also Euro 2020 (if it goes ahead as planned) and the need for players to get an appropriate break before the start of next season which would normally be scheduled for mid-July.

    Chances of it happening: this would probably cause as many problems as it would solve. Perhaps an option if other countries were doing it, but it would require major changes in the calendar for next season.


    LOTS OF PLAYOFFS
    The Italians have mooted deciding the title and relegation via playoff matches. It would certainly make for good TV.

    The problems with this plan: Celtic are never going to agree to a playoff for the league, given their current points advantage. And how do you decide what teams should go into the relegation playoffs in any given league?

    Chances of it happening: can't see it.


    CALL THE SEASON OFF
    Declare the 2019/20 season null and void. Don't award the league title to anyone. Don't have promotion or relegation. Start over next season with clubs in the same divisions they are now. Hearts strongly approve of this plan.

    The problems with this plan: who wants to volunteer to tell Celtic fans that nine-in-a-row is cancelled? There are also repercussions for clubs such as Dundee United, who would be stuck in the second tier for yet another year having spent significantly to get up to the top flight.

    Chances of it happening: unlikely, unless the rest of Europe is doing the same thing.


    CANCEL RELEGATION BUT ALLOW PROMOTION
    Get around the idea of stopping the season early being unfair on clubs at the bottom of the table by announcing relegation would be scrapped, but allow promotion to take place anyway so no-one is disadvantaged (much). Obviously it would be sensible to promote the team currently second in the Championship since the playoffs wouldn't happen (wink, wink).

    The problems with this plan: you'd end up with having to deal with a 14 team top flight for at least a season, which would be a whole new issue.

    Chances of it happening: pretty much zero, since only a half-crazed Caley Thistle-supporting blogger would even think of it, let alone support it.



    In conclusion, this is going to be a real headache for Scottish football - and for football in general - to deal with. For us, it'll probably be a case of doing what England and other countries do. Normally I would grate at that, but in this case following everyone else's lead is probably the best way forward. That's assuming of course that everyone else agrees on a way to go forward.

    And most importantly, if this is the price to pay for helping the country and the world get through this crisis, then so be it. Remember that Bill Shankly quote - "Some people think football is a matter of life and death...I can assure them it is much more serious than that."? Bear in mind that he was joking.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  8. hislopsoffsideagain
    Are we ever going to have a battle for the league title again?

    A two horse race isn't much more exciting than a one horse race when you don't have a stake in either, but last season some thought Rangers might be able to push Celtic a bit. Not too many expected them p*** all over Celtic's ten-in-a-row dream. Steven Gerrard's side won the title by 25 points. Can Celtic turn that back around. The evidence of their opening European games was not encouraging.
    As for the other ten, we're very much back to a situation where the ceiling is third place. Hibs managed it last season, but Aberdeen are reinventing themselves, Hearts are back in the top flight and St. Johnstone will look to carry the momentum of two cup wins into the new campaign. At the other end of the table, Hamilton's relegation means that for the first time in years we don't have a clear and obvious favourite for the drop (the fact that Accies kept proving everyone wrong is by the by...)


    ABERDEEN (2020/21: 4th; 2019/20: 4th; 2018/19: 4th) Derek McInnes and Stephen Glass have very different ideas of how football should be played. Aberdeen had unquestionably gone stale by the end of McInnes' tenure but Glass has inherited squad with some young talent in Ross McCrorie and Lewis Ferguson and solidified the backbone with the signings of Scott Brown and Declan Gallagher. The Dons often looked toothless up front last year, and they'll be looking to American striker Christian Ramirez to solve that issue.

    CELTIC (2020/21: 2nd; 2019/20: 1st; 2018/19: 1st) How the mighty have fallen. Assuming Odsonne Edouard will be out the door imminently, they still need at least a goalkeeper, two full-backs, a centre-back, a defensive midfielder and a striker. The Champions League exit reduces the budget by a significant amount. Ange Postecoglu has been asked to win a poker game with a two-seven off-suit hand, and he's not even bluffing about it. The business they have done so far looks pretty decent at least, but it could well get worse for Celtic before it gets better. And yes, I know how daft that sounds when their floor is still second place, but that's Scottish football for you.

    DUNDEE (2020/21: 2nd in Championship; 2019/20: 3rd in Championship; 2018/19: 12th) Has James McPake found his feet as a manager, or did Dundee just go on a streak at the end of last season and luck into a playoff with a joke of a Kilmarnock team? We'll find out soon. A lot of their transfer activity has been about improving depth though Ryan Sweeney and Corey Panter will compete for a place in the centre of defence. Charlie Adam will be eyeing this season up as something of a swansong. There are a lot of players here who have previously flattered to deceive at this level though, particularly up front. And can they get something consistent from Jason Cummings?

    DUNDEE UNITED (2020/21: 9th; 2019/20: 1st in Championship; 2018/19: 2nd in Championship)
    United fans are filled with trepidation after a summer which saw them promote Tam Courts from the youth academy to be new head coach and only two new signings so far (one is a backup keeper and the other is 168 year old Charlie Mulgrew). There is going to be a clear emphasis on playing youngsters here, and there are high hopes for defenders Kerr Smith, Flynn Duffy and Kieran Freeman, midfielder Chris Mochrie and forward Logan Chalmers. But it's a risky strategy, though if Courts can get Lawrence Shankland scoring regularly again they should be okay.

    HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN (2020/21: 1st in Championship; 2019/20: 12th; 2018/19: 6th) Hearts somewhat underwhelmed despite cruising the Championship last season, too often playing down to the opposition. The question is whether they can step it up again, and the return of John Souttar and exciting arrival of Beni Baningime should help with that. Liam Boyce is a top class striker and should be amply supplied by Gary Mackay-Steven and Josh Ginnelly. If Souttar and Peter Haring can stay fit then they actually should be in very good nick. And if worse comes to worse they've still got Loic Damour...

    HIBERNIAN (2020/21: 3rd; 2019/20: 7th; 2018/19: 5th) Hibs have only lost Ofir Marciano and Jackson Irvine from the side that finished third last year and with Jake Doyle-Hayes arriving to bolster the midfield there's no reason for expectations to be lower. A bit more consistency from young talents Josh Doig and Ryan Porteous in defence, midfielder Kyle Magennis and new winger Daniel Mackay would make this team rather dangerous. Striker Kevin Nisbet deserved his Euros call up, and the electric Martin Boyle could (should?) be playing for a bigger club than this.

    LIVINGSTON (2020/21: 6th; 2019/20: 5th; 2018/19: 9th) We all know Livi will do things differently from everyone else, and so far that's worked for them. But they won only one of their last fifteen games last season which was alarming. There's been lots of squad turnover although only the loss of Jon Guthrie seems a particular blow and Tom Parkes should replace him in defence. Bruce Anderson looks like a fine signing up top and loan players Adam Lewis and Ben Williamson look like useful midfield additions. Can David Martindale blend this unusual looking squad together though?

    MOTHERWELL (2020/21: 8th; 2019/20: 3rd; 2018/19: 8th) Graham Alexander has not beaten about the bush when it comes to recruitment; eighteen players left this summer and there are nine new signings (and he wants more!). Getting Liam Kelly back in goal is a coup and Callum Slattery should add quality to the midfield. Can one of their four new strikers score consistently though? Well also seem to be completely devoid of wide players. Alexander is clearly a man with a plan, but to the uneducated such as myself it's not totally clear what the plan is...

    RANGERS (2020/21: 1st; 2019/20: 2nd; 2018/19: 2nd) The Champions will essentially go again with the same squad that won the league last year, with midfielder John Lundstram and forward Fashion Sakala adding slightly more depth. There's not much talk of their top players legging it - though that might change if they falter in the Champions League playoffs - and unless motivation is a problem (which seems unlikely) they should walk the league again.

    ROSS COUNTY (2020/21: 10th; 2019/20: 10th; 2018/19: 1st in Championship) Having managed to stay up, County gutted the squad (correctly), replaced the manager (harshly?) with Malky Mackay (controversial) and then spent the time they should have spent on recruitment on trying to explain to everyone why the appointment wasn't controversial at all. And then they had a Covid outbreak. Given that they're never short of cash, it's concerning that they've only brought in five new faces to replace the fourteen they chucked, though full-back Jake Vokins is a good pickup on loan. While one would assume Mackay will have them well-drilled, more signings are surely needed.

    ST. JOHNSTONE (2020/21: 5th; 2019/20: 6th; 2018/19: 7th) Make no mistake, they were really, really good in the second half of last season, and most of the cup winning players are back again. If they can hold onto Jason Kerr and Shaun Rooney the defence will remain strong and David Wotherspoon continues to fly under the radar but the midfield could maybe do with another set of young legs alongside the outstanding Ali McCann and having lost Guy Melamed they could do with a reliable goalscorer. They should have enough to have another tilt at the top six though.

    ST. MIRREN (2020/21: 7th; 2019/20: 9th; 2018/19: 11th) Jim Goodwin has quietly done a very good job of making the Buddies just a little bit better each year, partly through excellent recruitment. Curtis Main seems a striker tailormade for the club and who might bring the best out of Eamonn Brophy, while Greg Kiltie may thrive away from Kilmarnock but hopefully won't have to fill the shoes of the much-sought after Jamie McGrath. Scott Tanser should improve a decent defence further and whilst Tony Fitzpatrick's dreams of them winning the Champions League, curing cancer and solving climate change are a bit optimistic, another step a little further up the table is a fair aim.

    And here's the predicted table:
    1. RANGERS
    2. CELTIC 3. HIBERNIAN 4. ABERDEEN 5. HEARTS 6. ST. MIRREN
    7. ST. JOHNSTONE 8. MOTHERWELL 9. DUNDEE UNITED 10. ROSS COUNTY
    11. LIVINGSTON
    12. DUNDEE
    As ever, I expect to be proven very, very wrong...

    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. View the full article
  9. hislopsoffsideagain
    Lyndon Dykes will be missed in Moldova
    Dykes reminds me of the character in the Monty Python 'Upper-Class Twit Of The Year' sketch who "doesn't know when he's beaten, this boy, he doesn't know when he's winning either. He doesn't have any sort of sensory apparatus". I had no doubt at all that the naturalized Ozzie would be unfazed by his penalty miss against Israel, and there was something very Dykes about scoring a goal by essentially karate-kicking the ball. But whilst he remains somewhat limited - some of his movement off the ball is just so random rather than thought-out - he continues to develop as a player and he is yet to hit his ceiling. If only because of his remarkable self-belief he is Scotland's best option up front just now; the hard-working Che Adams is still uncomfortable in front of goal, while Kevin Nisbet just looks like a guy trying too hard because he's not sure he belongs at this level. Unfortunately, Dykes' suspension means Scotland will have to go back to playing a striker up front in Tiraspol next month, rather than some sort of force of nature. It's not ideal.


    Nathan Patterson is our least-bad option at right-back
    Patterson was one of many who struggled in the first forty-five against Israel, but his appearance as a sub in the Faroes proved pivotal as it was his terrific cross that led to the winner. The problem for Clarke is that none of our right-back options are great just now. Stephen O'Donnell is probably the pick for matches against elite opposition because of his adequate (-ish) defensive play but he is always identified by other teams as a non-factor going forward; in Vienna he often had a bus lane to work with on that flank because his final ball was guaranteed to be rubbish. Ryan Fraser is a winger, not a wing-back. Defensively he was frequently out of position in Torshavn though he did become more dangerous going forward as the game progressed. Patterson is the one who not only has the tools to play wing-back but also is the one who has the potential to be a really special player. The rewards for Scotland of playing him, both for the present and the future, outweigh the risks.


    Billy Gilmour needs another playmaker beside him
    Gilmour is ridiculously special. He has also elevated Callum McGregor's game; with the duo in the centre of the park Scotland are better in possession than I've ever seen them. The balance wasn't there with Scott McTominay in midfield though - more on the Manchester United man later - and Gilmour only really took control of the Faroes match after McGregor arrived as a substitute. The thought of Ryan Jack sitting beside - or slightly deeper - than Gilmour is an intriguing one, though the Moldova/Denmark double-header may come too soon for the Rangers midfielder. Jack's defensive work is better than McGregor's and might be a useful option against quality teams without reducing our quality on the ball significantly.


    McTominay's best position for Scotland is at the back (at least right now)
    Ooh, controversial! Not too many folk would argue that McTominay is a better defender than Jack Hendry, but I feel the former's positional lapses are balanced out by the latter's tendency to lose concentration and make silly errors. What McTominay does give the back three is another player who is comfortable bringing the ball out from the back; Hendry has the ability to do so too but his decision-making just isn't as strong. Meanwhile neither McTominay nor Scotland look comfortable when he is in the centre of the park, though I can't quite figure out why. Is he trying to do too much?


    It's a long time since the players and fans had it as good as this
    As Scotland took the ball to the corner flag to waste time at the end of the Israel match, Ryan Christie could be seen extolling the crowd to get louder. That was somewhat optimistic, given Hampden was already at fever pitch. That game had the perfect synergy between the players on the pitch and the supporters in the stands - the latter encouraging the former on with a wall of noise, and the former giving the latter (and Ally McCoist in the commentary box!) sufficient reason to lose their s***.


    Too often in the last two decades it has been the complete opposite, with a support that felt mostly let down and embarrassed and players who often looked devoid of confidence or just like they didn't want to be there. 


    Yes, we needed an injury-time winner to beat Israel, a competent but non-elite opponent, at home. And an 86th minute winner in the Faroes (bear in mind Denmark took 85 minutes to crack them, and by then the Faroes were down to ten men). If these are the 'good times' then that says a lot about what the bad times were. After all, Scotland will probably need to win in Moldova (or at home to the Danes) and then defeat two high-quality opponents in the playoffs to reach the World Cup. That's a hell of an ask. But to be as close as this is such an improvement on what came before.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  10. hislopsoffsideagain
    The reaction to St. Johnstone's decision to give three McDiarmid Park stands to Rangers and Celtic fans was somewhat mixed.

    There was, for example, this piece from the Daily Record's Michael Gannon claiming that they were trying to 'make a quick buck' by exploiting the biggest supports in the country - because giving said supports more tickets is, apparently, 'exploitation'.

    Especially when said tickets are £28 a pop. Sure, we'd all like to pay less for football tickets, but criticizing the price is rich given it costs only a quid less for away supporters at Celtic Park to watch from the infamous 'restricted view' seats that, in addition to watching their team getting pumped, give the spectator the treasured bonus of an acute case of torticollis.

    However, plenty were pragmatic about it. Whilst few actually believed the Perth Saints' claim that temporarily shifting some fans so the home support was amalgamated in one area would help provide a 'partisan atmosphere' - there's no way that was written with a straight face - we're not talking small change here. Gannon claimed St. Johnstone would "trouser a couple of hundred grand which might fund a couple of players".

    A couple of hundred grand would equate to about 5% of St. Johnstone's annual turnover. It's more likely to pay for four players than for two. It might be loose change for Scotland's largest two clubs, but it is a significant amount of money for a club of their size...and for at least half the clubs in the Scottish Premiership.

    Gannon bizarrely suggested away fans should boycott Perth in protest. He did also briefly mention one of the reasons why St. Johnstone can, and need to, take this step - the fact that season ticket holders are dodging these matches.

    Those are generally the most loyal supporters, and ones who have actually paid for their seats already. And yet they are eschewing the chance to watch the biggest and most talented clubs in the country take on their own side.

    Imagine season ticket holders at Bournemouth and Watford deciding to skip the visit of Liverpool or Manchester City, or Getafe fans staying at home when Barcelona come to town. I attended a Middlesbrough-Manchester United match in 2008 where the visiting support took great joy in proclaiming "you're only here for United!" loudly. It was true too; my mate spent the whole game salivating over Paul Scholes and I over Wayne Rooney.

    But St. Johnstone's fans are not the only ones turned off by the Gruesome Twosome. Other clubs have also noted their season ticket holders staying away in similar circumstances.

    There are a few different factors at play here. One is that these games tend to have awkward kickoff times. Another is that no-one ever enjoys seeing their team get gubbed. After a few years where both Celtic and Rangers looked like potential scalps when you got them on your own patch, we've rewound to the days when, for example, Stephane Guivarc'h scored two in an 8-0 win for Dick Advocaat's Rangers...in Perth.

    But that was never quite enough to keep folk away. Perhaps the star power of Brian Laudrup, Henrik Larsson etc. was worth the ignominy. Alfredo Morelos and Odsonne Edouard are talents but hardly in the same stratosphere.

    And then of course there is the whole experience of having Rangers and Celtic fans in town.

    Sure, they aren't the only ones to sing unpleasant songs, to invade the pitch, to set off flares, to throw objects, to damage the stadium.

    But it only feels inevitable when it's one of those supports.

    At Inverness (a place that neither club are likely to be visiting again in the near future) I've seen fans of both clubs drinking in the streets - Strongbow for Celtic fans, Buckfast for Rangers fans - urinating outside the ground (as if they don't think indoor plumbing has reached the Highlands yet) and have endured loud aggressive chants about killing people which have no relation to the actual match or opponent.

    It is not a lot of fun.

    So we've now reached a strange denouement where fans of other Scottish clubs are turned off by Rangers and Celtic, and yet the big two and the SPFL will cite the impressive viewing figures for their derby clash at the end of December as further evidence that, outside Scotland at least, they're the only clubs that matter.

    Which is fair enough until they complain that no-one else wants to watch them...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly

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  11. hislopsoffsideagain
    For the first time since 2014, there isn't a club in this division that could be considered a Scottish football heavyweight - yes, I'd still refer to Dundee United as such, even if they are a bit flabby with bingo wings and move slower than a week in jail. There's also not a club like Dundee or Ross County who have significant financial backing from a benevolent millionaire.


    So in theory at least the Championship is up for grabs. However Kilmarnock - back at this level for the first time since 1993! - have not messed about and deserve to be described as favourites. Supporters or almost every other side can legitimately dream of having at least an outside shot at the top four though. But they can also brick themselves at the possibility that they could get relegated. It's not unusual for a more established club to have a nightmare of a season and finish bottom. Who might that be this time around?


    ARBROATH (2020/21: 7th; 2019/20: 5th; 2018/19: 1st in League One)
    Surely the only part-timers in the division can't survive and thrive at this level forever - though you wouldn't dare say that to Dick Campbell's face. The Red Lichties still have that excellent back four, marshalled by Tam O'Brien, and are better at using the loan market than most. They really need one Livingston loanee, Jon Nouble, to replace the goals that were provided in the second half of last season by another Livingston loanee, Jack Hamilton. If not, lack of firepower will give them a real problem, especially since the talismanic Bobby Linn is nearly 36.


    AYR UNITED (2020/21: 8th; 2019/20: 4th; 2018/19: 4th)
    United didn't really pick up after David Hopkin replaced Mark Kerr in charge and won only two of eleven league games under him. Hopkin has gone back to Morton to try and strengthen the defence, and though neither Markus Fjortoft nor Sean McGinty impressed in Greenock he has lured talented young keeper Aidan McAdams from his former club. They're another team who look dicey up top; with Michael Moffat now 37 they need young striker Marc McKenzie or new signing Tomi Adeloye who has more clubs in his career than he has goals. 


    DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC (2020/21: 4th; 2019/20: 6th; 2018/19: 7th)
    Dunfermline's new German owners seem happy to rely on more traditional recruitment for the moment and on paper it has worked well for them. The addition of Reece Cole and Graham Dorrans should give them a strong midfield and winger Kai Kennedy is a terrific signing on loan from Rangers. With Nikolay Todorov and Craig Wighton as established goal threats and Dom Thomas creating, they will be very dangerous going forward. The defence will miss Euan Murray but it seems reasonable to expect at least one of new signings Rhys Breen and Ross Graham or Lithuanian international Vytas Gaspuitis to step up. New boss Peter Grant should go from a relegation battle at Alloa last year to a promotion battle this time around.


    GREENOCK MORTON (2020/21: 9th; 2019/20: 7th; 2018/19: 5th)
    Covid has not helped Morton's preparations but with only four new signings it feels like they have a lot of work to do in all areas. At the back Gus MacPherson will need Jack Hamilton to shake off a rotten few years at Dundee, while Alan Lithgow should be an improvement at centre-back. The midfield needs young players like Cameron Blues and Reece Lyon to finally step up, while up front Gary Oliver and Gozie Ugwu work hard but score too few. Robbie Muirhead is the X-factor but shows his ability all too rarely. MacPherson won just one of his twelve league games in charge before the playoffs last season and the jury is out on whether he is yesterday's man.


    HAMILTON ACADEMICAL (2020/21: 12th in Premiership; 2019/20: 11th in Premiership; 2018/19: 10th in Premiership)
    In some ways it seems laudable that Accies stuck by Brian Rice despite relegation, but in plenty of other ways it seems crazy. In Hakeem Odoffin and David Templeton they have two players who would stroll this division...but Odoffin will surely move on and Templeton is perennially injured. Basically Hamilton are looking to cobble together a promotion challenge with a combination of players who proved out of their depth in the top flight and unproven youngsters. Can Rice really convert them from a mindset of battling to avoid relegation every year to taking the initiative against most opponents?


    INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE (2020/21: 5th; 2019/20: 2nd; 2018/19: 3rd)
    The suggestion from some bookies that ICT are third favourites seems rather optimistic after watching them defend in the League Cup; at the moment they look very much like a side with a rookie manager (Billy Dodds) and an aged centre-back who needs put out to pasture (Kirk Broadfoot). Maybe it'll all gel, maybe Broadfoot will aid the development of young defenders Robbie Deas and Cameron Harper, and maybe fellow veteran signings Michael Gardyne and Billy Mckay will add quality and nous. Or maybe not. If wingers Tom Walsh (back for a second spell), Anthony McDonald and Aaron Doran can stay fit they should be fun to watch, but it's hard to predict how they'll do until Dodds has had a couple of months to show whether he's up to management or not.


    KILMARNOCK (2020/21: 11th in Premiership; 2019/20: 8th in Premiership; 2018/19: 3rd in Premiership)
    Just the sixteen new signings as Tommy Wright overhauled the side that shockingly got relegated. It's essentially a new team with only Brandon Haunstrup, Chris Burke and Rory McKenzie from last year's team likely to start. Jason Naismith, Scott Robinson and Liam Polworth look like particularly great additions, while Euan Murray, Fraser Murray and Dan Armstrong proved last year that they can cut it at this level. If Innes Cameron can fulfil his potential - at the moment he looks like he's going to be given an extended chance to do so up front - then it's their title to lose.


    PARTICK THISTLE (2020/21: 1st in League One; 2019/20: 10th; 2018/19: 6th)
    Ian McCall built a tidy squad to get out of League One and won't be content simply with survival. Brian Graham and Zak Rudden provide a fine combination of experience and youth in attack and Cammy Smith is a terrific addition to the midfield. McCall also signed Ross MacIver and Scott Tiffoney permanently after successful loan spells and if the defence, reinforced by loanee keeper Harry Stone and centre-back Lewis Mayo and permanent addition Kevin Holt, is up to the task then they will be closer to the top than the bottom.


    QUEEN OF THE SOUTH (2020/21: 6th; 2019/20: 9th; 2018/19: 9th)
    Another summer, another big clearout in Dumfries with only a handful of last season's starters remaining. Like last year Allan Johnston has had to take chances on players from the lower divisions and from down south who are largely unproven; the exception is former Hearts starlet Harry Cochrane. The League Cup group was encouraging with lots of goals from newbies Ally Roy (Airdrie) and Ruari Paton (Stranraer) and Portuguese forward Ruben Junior seems to be a nice chap who loves his mum. But their first Stephen Dobbie-less season since 2016 could be a tough one.


    RAITH ROVERS (2020/21: 3rd; 2019/20: 1st in League One; 2018/19: 3rd in League One)
    Rovers played some sexy and successful football last season, but can they keep up the forward momentum after losing outstanding midfielder Regan Hendry? Liam Dick should replace Kieran MacDonald at left back and hopefully Christophe Berra still has some legs left. Keeping Lewis Vaughan fit will make a big difference, as will getting the best out of erratic wingers Dario Zanatta and Aidan Connelly. Rovers are another side who do well in the loan market and they've picked up youngsters Kai Fotheringham and Ethan Varion plus Livingston striker Matej Poplatnik this way; they'll all be expected to make a big impact.


    And here's my predicted league table:


    1. KILMARNOCK


    2. DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC
    3. PARTICK THISTLE
    4. RAITH ROVERS


    5. HAMILTON ACADEMICAL
    6. INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE
    7. AYR UNITED
    8. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH


    9. GREENOCK MORTON


    10. ARBROATH


    Arbroath fans won't need to be told twice to take a screenshot of this so they can haunt me with it in May 2022...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  12. hislopsoffsideagain
    Given that League One is still mostly the domain of part-time clubs, any full-time teams should always be considered favourites.

    Partick Thistle lived up to that billing last season, eventually. Falkirk on the other hand collapsed like a house of cards in a hurricane; if missing out on promotion was a catastrophe, slumping to fifth place is, er, something worse than a catastrophe?


    For 2021/22, the Bairns, Airdrie - who have a bit of a hybrid model in their squad - and Queen's Park, who are in a heck of a hurry after throwing off the shackles of amateurism, are the full-timers. But there's also Cove Rangers who are paying pretty impressive part-time wages. And there's a bunch of battle-hardened squads who would like nothing more to 'welcome' these full-time fancy dans to the seaside leagues. Let's see how it all pans out...


    AIRDRIEONIANS (2020/21: 2nd; 2019/20: 3rd; 2018/19: 5th)
    Last season's promotion playoff finalists only retained eight of last year's squad - and highly rated youngster Thomas Robert will probably leave - but they will expect to be near the top again. Rhys McCabe, Adam Frizzell and Dylan Easton will add flair and are among a host of new signings who need to see this as their last chance to prove they can make this their day job. A goalscorer would make a big difference - can Gabby McGill or Salim Kouider-Aissa get into double figures?


    ALLOA ATHLETIC (2020/21: 10th in Championship; 2019/20: 8th in Championship; 2018/19: 8th in Championship)
    It's the end of an era for the Wasps following the end of their three year Championship stay and many mainstays have departed along with manager Peter Grant. Barry Ferguson brings a bit of razzmatazz to the dugout but the jury is still out on his managerial credentials. But on paper this is a pretty strong squad with the addition of Mark Durnan and Fernandy Mendy in defence and Steven Boyd up top, and veterans Andy Graham, Scott Taggart and Alan Trouten have hung around.


    CLYDE (2020/21: 8th; 2019/20: 7th; 2018/19: 2nd in League Two)
    Danny Lennon hasn't been allowed to take a squad of youngsters to a desert island yet, so he'll have to make do with this motley crew, which includes 14 new signings so far. Conrad Balatoni, Morgaro Gomis and Gregory Tade - the latter coming out of retirement - give them an experienced backbone and David Goodwillie has scored 73 goals in 4 seasons which is some strike rate. This is surely time for them to push on towards the top half of the division.


    COVE RANGERS (2020/21: 3rd; 2019/20: 1st in League Two; 2018/19: 1st in Highland League)
    Cove still have aspirations to get to the Championship and Ross County duo Ross Draper and Iain Vigurs are the marquee additions to a group that already contains the illustrious trio of Fraser Fyvie, Mitch Megginson and Rory McAllister. Cove's biggest weakness looked like being squad depth - they struggled to fill their bench in the League Cup games - but Paul Hartley has now brought in Shay Logan and Javan Anderson (son of Russell) to boost the defence


    DUMBARTON (2020/21: 9th; 2019/20: 6th; 2018/19: 6th)
    It was a turbulent summer at the Rock, with manager Jim Duffy leaving and only three of last year's squad remaining. New boss Stevie Farrell has a tough job on his hands rejuvenated a club that only avoided relegation via a playoff in May. Joe McKee should fill the Ross Forbes-shaped hole in midfield, and Gregor Buchanan, Paul Paton and Andy Geggan add experience but it's hard to see where the goals are coming from.


    EAST FIFE (2020/21: 6th; 2019/20: 5th; 2018/19: 7th)
    The Methil side were unlucky to end up on the wrong side of the split as they were still in promotion contention at the time. They've lost keeper Brett Long and talisman Scott Agnew but there's still plenty of quality with Scott Mercer added to the defence, Danny Swanson in midfield and Kevin Smith and Ryan Wallace up front. They'll fancy they can improve on last season.


    FALKIRK (2020/21: 5th; 2019/20: 2nd; 2018/19: 10th in Championship)
    It's promotion or bust for the Bairns under new boss Paul Sheerin, who has a squad filled with players that would not look out of place in the second tier. Brad McKay, Ryan McGuffie and Aidan Nesbitt all look like terrific additions on paper, but we said that about many of the team last season. Callumn Morrison might be the best wide player in this league and Aidan Keena certainly has the quality to score for fun, but will expectations weigh them down again?


    MONTROSE (2020/21: 4th; 2019/20: 4th; 2018/19: 4th)
    Nobody (except maybe their Smokie neighbours?) quite seems to punch above their weight like Stewart Petrie's Montrose do, not least because of a squad that has been settled for a number of years. The loss of striker Russell McLean and loanees Harry Cochrane and Chris Mochrie will make it a bit harder, but getting Blair Lyons back on loan from Partick Thistle is a boost and one of the strongest backlines in the division gives them a good base to work from.


    PETERHEAD (2020/21: 7th; 2019/20: 8th; 2018/19: 1st in League Two)
    It's hard to know what to make of the Blue Toon, who last season were too good to go down and not nearly good enough to go up. Brett Long and Russell McLean will improve them at either end of the pitch but the days of paying big wages are long gone and it looks like they will play the loan system as best they can. Scott Brown and Simon Ferry give them plenty of quality in midfield but they will miss long-term absentee Gary Fraser. Derek Lyle, now 40, will play his twenty-third league season.


    QUEEN'S PARK (2020/21: 1st in League Two; 2019/20: 5th in League Two; 2018/19: 7th in League Two)
    Last year's League Two champs have no interest in just consolidating; the Spiders want to get up the leagues and have supplemented their squad with some decent reinforcements in keeper Calum Ferrie and winger Lewis Moore. Michael Doyle, Lee Kilday, Peter Grant and Tommy Robson form an excellent defence and Bob McHugh and Simon Murray should score plenty at this level. It will be interesting to see how rookie coach Laurie Ellis fares after Ray McKinnon left in the summer.




    And here's my predicted standings:


    1. FALKIRK


    2. AIRDRIEONIANS
    3. QUEEN'S PARK
    4. COVE RANGERS


    5. ALLOA ATHLETIC
    6. EAST FIFE
    7. MONTROSE
    8. CLYDE


    9. PETERHEAD


    10. DUMBARTON


    I await the usual constructive criticism...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  13. hislopsoffsideagain
    We waited twenty-three years for this, and what did we get? An endless barrage of mediocre nausea-related puns regarding the name of the Czech goalscorer.


    What we didn't get was the epic, all-action, never-say-die, no-one-lives-forever performance from the home side that we were looking for and, frankly, expecting. Heck, no-one even got booked.


    Don't forget that Scotland were the home side here. Opportunities to play at a major tournament are like hen's teeth for us; to do it on our own turf is a chance that had to be grasped with both hands, not least against our only group opponent that didn't reach a 2018 World Cup Semi-Final. If this had been a 2-0 defeat at home to the Czech Republic in qualifying, in this manner, the postmortem would have been pretty grim. There should be little sympathy or patience just because "at least we qualified".


    Okay, it came down to fine margins and sure, Scotland were grossly short-changed on this front. We could probably afford to lose Kieran Tierney less than any other player in the squad. The Czech goalkeeper had a fine match. Jack Hendry hit the bar when the score was 1-0. One simply cannot allow for an extraordinary moment like Patrik Schick's second goal and perhaps it is unreasonable to expect such a strike to be anything other than a knockout blow.


    But on a day that demanded a carpe diem spirit, Steve Clarke set Scotland up in such a way that this match was only ever going to come down to fine margins. The starting lineup looked quite adventurous with Stuart Armstrong, Ryan Christie and John McGinn all there to ostensibly provide support to Lyndon Dykes but the reality was anything but. Somehow we managed to lack an attacking threat because we played too many attack-minded players.


    With Tierney injured and Scott McTominay back in midfield none of the Scottish back three were either comfortable enough in possession or confident enough to step out with the ball. Carpe diem? We couldn't even manage carpe pila. With no Ryan Jack, Kenny McLean, Callum McGregor or Billy Gilmour on the pitch and McTominay closed down whenever he came deep, the only out ball was a long punt forward.


    This worked marginally better when Dykes was joined by Che Adams in the second half, but even then the play was depressingly archaic: either hit it at Dykes and hope he can flick it on, or get it wide and ping it in the box. That's 'get it wide left', obviously, because for the vast majority of the match only Andy Robertson looked capable of making anything happen...and the Czechs were well aware of this, which is why they offered us the chance to pass to Stephen O'Donnell as much as possible.


    No-one can doubt the Motherwell defender's effort, his contribution to team camaraderie and his impeccable home baking but at this level he is a Standard Grade maths student being asked to give a calculus lecture at St. Andrews. In the second minute he took a pass on the right touchline, looked up and let the ball run under his foot with no-one near him. He ruined one promising attack by inexplicably getting in Christie's way after the Celtic player had managed to beat two defenders. His crosses never beat the first man, he gave away possession time and again and ultimately he was the one who was so, so slow to get out and close down the two-on-one the Czechs created to cross for the opener.


    That said, Grant Hanley has one job. ONE JOB. TO WIN HEADERS.


    Perhaps the most depressing aspect was how little influence John McGinn had on the match. Most of Scotland's finest play under Clarke has involved the talismanic midfielder doing damage in the final third. Here, whilst he seemed to be playing ahead of Armstrong, he was neutered. It says it all that his sole highlight moment, a 360 degree spin out of trouble that left an opponent dazed and confused on the turf, took place twenty-five yards from his own goal...and that when he then looked for a teammate to pass to, there were none.


    As a close friend texted after the final whistle, "most disappointing of all, Clarke was crap". Scotland's cerebral, savvy, streetwise coach was supposed to be the great equalizer that compensated for the lack of quality in some areas of the team. When we look back on this game for years to come, people will think of that fifty-yard strike, but many will not forget that Scotland's team selection hamstrung them from the start.


    So, what does Clarke do now? Unfortunately, the only answer I can think of is 'pray'. All the optimism has been sucked out of the Tartan Army now and replaced by an overwhelming feeling of dread in the pits of our stomachs; that's not Schickness at the Czech result, it's the very real fear that if we play like  that at Wembley on Friday we are going to be humiliated.




    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  14. hislopsoffsideagain
    Whereas in League Two the difference in budget between richest and poorest is pretty minimal, League One has four clubs who are full time - Cove Rangers, Falkirk, Hamilton Accies and Queen of the South - and six clubs who savour bloodying their noses regularly. So while I make no apology for my choice of the top four it is quite easy to see it going spectacularly wrong for each of them.


    Take FALKIRK, for example. It's like the Bairns have been given a special demotivational plaque by Mr Burns. Surely their fifth straight season in League One will be their last? We shall see. John McGlynn brought in Tom Lang and Brad Spencer from his former club Raith Rovers and they should be more than capable, and given they already boast the likes of Coll Donaldson, Stephen McGinn, Callumn Morrison and Gary Oliver there are no excuses. But then we've said that before...

    COVE RANGERS won this division in 2021-22 before stinking up the second half of last season in the Championship. So they've responded by going full-time and giving Paul Hartley - whose record in recruitment at previous clubs was not exactly stellar - the chance to practically sign a new team. Paul McGowan and Connor Scully are probably the best centre midfield pairing in the league and Mitch Megginson can be relied on for goals, but the jury is out on a backline that will mostly be made up of newbies.

    Having been a Premiership side as recently as 2021, HAMILTON ACCIES need to arrest the slide...and they might do so after new ownership was followed by an influx of new blood that leaves them with a far stronger team than the one that got relegated from the Championship last season. They've stuck by manager John Rankin despite the drop, but he'll be expected to get a tune out of the likes of Dylan Tait, Euan Henderson and Kevin O'Hara; signing an entirely new defence is not a bad move either but they may take time to gel. Still, it feels like things can't get any worse (famous last words).

    QUEEN OF THE SOUTH showed some signs of life after Marvin Bartley became manager and they look to have recruited wisely - particularly getting keeper Murray Johnson and central defender Kyle McClelland on loan from Hibs. Dumfries is the latest stop for Efe Ambrose, who is heading inexorably towards a career climax in 2026 where he becomes a cult hero for an Angus club by scoring a crucial goal with a bullet header in a relegation playoff that saves his club's SPFL status before walking off into the sunset (niche Marvin Andrews reference there). If Bartley can coax Lee Connelly and Gavin Reilly back to their best then they will be dangerous.

    Of the part-time clubs, ALLOA ATHLETIC look the strongest, not least because they made the promotion playoffs last season. Brian Rice is an astute coach and continues to get plenty out of veterans Andy Graham (40 in September!) and Conor Sammon (37 in November). Sammon and Luke Donnelly give them a potent threat up top. They have had to replace most of last season's starting backline though and they had a pretty lousy League Cup campaign, so a regression is not that unlikely.

    EDINBURGH CITY looked like playoff candidates for most of the season but hit the skids, winning only three of their last sixteen games. Now they've lost all four League Cup group games too. John Robertson and Steven Warnock, arguably their two greatest attacking threats, have moved on, and while a summer takeover by a fan-led consortium has been blamed for Alan Maybury's failure to reinforce much, the bottom line is it is hard to give them the benefit of the doubt right now. Still, the combined creativity of Danny Handling and Innes Murray makes them worth a watch.

    It's mental that MONTROSE are in their sixth straight season at this level, and frankly its all down to the awesome management of Stewart Petrie. Last year felt like a step backward though, with a feeling that they had hit their ceiling and Petrie was finding it hard to refresh a settled squad that had done so well for so long. And that feeling has caused them to splash out - with a transfer fee and everything! - to sign League Two goal machine Kane Hester to give them a spark. How far can he and the evergreen Rory MacAllister fire them? We'll see.

    By the far the biggest turnover has been at KELTY HEARTS, where Michael Tidser replaced John Potter at the end of last season and set about basically gutting the entire squad; only eight players plus the player-boss himself remain. I'm always wary about how long it takes a team to gel and a lot of the newbies are guys who have blown hot-and-cold at this level in the past. The dream is that Tiwi Daramola, who scored an insane number of goals for Bo'ness Athletic last season, can do it at this level; four in four League Cup games is a good start.

    And lastly we come on to the promoted teams, both of whom have largely stuck with the group that got them up. STIRLING ALBION looked like a League One team last season and only needed to tinker; getting Dale Hilson in up front to partner Dale Carrick looks like an astute move. A couple of decent loan signings could make Darren Young's side very competitive very quickly in a division where former League Two champions have a recent history of back-to-back promotions.

    It's likely to be a lot harder for ANNAN ATHLETIC. Peter Murphy's side have punched above their weight for years but going up via the playoffs was astonishing. They have a close-knit bunch and crucially, a talented striker in Tommy Goss. But it's a sign of where they are at that they lost one of their starting defenders, Cammy Williamson, to Stranraer. It's hard to look at them and fancy them for anything other than a long campaign.

    So here's my inevitably wrong predicted table:

    1 FALKIRK

    2 HAMILTON ACADEMICAL
    3 QUEEN OF THE SOUTH
    4 STIRLING ALBION

    5 COVE RANGERS
    6 ALLOA ATHLETIC
    7 MONTROSE
    8 EDINBURGH CITY

    9 KELTY HEARTS

    10 ANNAN ATHLETIC


    And the Twitter view:



    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.  
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  15. hislopsoffsideagain
    I don't care what anyone else says, the Championship is the most interesting division in the SPFL. What's that you say? "You're only saying that because the team you support is top of the table"? That's an outrageous allegation that I can neither confirm nor deny at this time.


    We are now nine games, or one quarter, of the way through the season. So here's a breakdown of how the ten clubs are faring, with a grading system shamelessly stolen from the legendary Tell Him He's Pele site of years gone by...




    ARBROATH    A
    If anyone needs reminding, Arbroath are a part-time team. This is their third season at this level but they are not only surviving but thriving. They are outside the promotion playoffs only on goal difference and their only two defeats are to the clubs first and second in the table. I simply cannot overstate how incredible this is. This is the strongest team they've probably ever had, though they will find it hard to replace the outstanding striker Joel Nouble when he inevitably returns to parent club Livingston in January. Nouble has deservedly got the headlines for his terrific play which has also brought out the best in Michael McKenna, who has seven goals already after scoring only six in the league in the previous two seasons combined. More under the radar is Nicky Low, the former Aberdeen prodigy who had been strolling around the Lowland League until last Spring and yet is the closest thing this level has to a quarterback. His range of passing has made the Red Lichties more expansive and his superb set pieces give them yet another type of threat. Add in the traditional Dick Campbell levels of organization and you get a club which put many far better resourced peers to shame.


    AYR UNITED    C-
    Teams are (and correctly so) often pilloried for sacking a manager as early as September. However United got it right by binning David Hopkin after a dreadful start where they took a single point from their opening four matches and Hoppy seemed to blame the supporters for their struggles. Since Jim Duffy took over there's been three victories and a jump into mid-table. There's no question Ayr are now better organised and less likely to cause your eyes to bleed, though Hoppyball set the bar pretty low there. The recent 4-0 thumping by Partick Thistle exposed their limitations though. The biggest concern is the lack of quality and balance in the squad Duffy inherited, which is desperately short on central midfielders. Up front Tomi Adeloye looks like the only potent goal threat. Expect reinforcements in January which will determine whether they can steer clear of a relegation battle.


    DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC    F
    Bottom of the league and still winless, Dunfermline couldn't even get through the international break without shooting themselves in the foot. Peter Grant's insistence last week that the Pars could still win the Championship (a 500-1 possibility according to the bookies) was relatively small beer compared to the spectacularly ill-thought out statement released by the board the week before which seemed to defend the hapless manager whilst slagging off the supporters at the same time. The draw at the weekend against Kilmarnock was a welcome improvement but is it an aberration or a sign of a corner turned? Whilst the takeover by a German consortium did not have the fans expecting the next Franz Beckenbauer, this squad is supposed to be challenging at the top end rather than propping up the table. It's not unfair to point the finger of blame at the dugout; Grant has brought in roughly a million central defenders, fell out with Dom Thomas shortly after making him captain, took too long to drop calamity keeper Deniz Mehmet and persisted for ages with playing widemen through the middle. It's also worth noting that the team look better without injured marquee signing Graham Dorrans, whose main contribution so far is to get in a slagging match with some supporters after another defeat. It can get better, but it is unlikely to do so until Grant is replaced.


    GREENOCK MORTON    C-
    As if being ninth wasn't concerning enough, the fact that Morton fans consider keeper Jack Hamilton to have been their best player so far this season is probably not a good sign. Gus MacPherson won more matches during the relegation playoffs at the end of last season (three) than he has done in sixteen Championship matches as manager (two). The glass-half full view is that MacPherson is still integrating some intriguing last minute loan signings in defender Oisin McEntee, wide players Jaakko Oksanen and Tom Allan and striker Gavin Reilly. A more realistic take is that this is a young and thin squad; Kyle Jacobs aside, the midfield is very raw while among the forwards only Reilly has a pedigree for scoring regularly at this level. If their hitherto impressive goalie hits a patch of dicey form as he so often has in his career, the Ton could be in for a ton of trouble.


    HAMILTON ACADEMICAL    D
    It's not unusual for newly-relegated sides to struggle to find their feet in the early weeks of the Championship season. They don't usually hit the skids as spectacularly as Accies though. Brian Rice's departure after two matches hasn't helped - not that the fans minded - and any hopes that a win over ICT was the sign they'd turned a corner evaporated in a 6-1 shellacking at home to Partick Thistle. That victory over Inverness is the team's only home triumph since opening day weekend. The truth is that this is a remarkably weak squad given the club spent the previous seven seasons in the top flight. At the back Mihai Popescu looks more like the jobber that won this league with Hearts than the titan who won it with St. Mirren, Shaun Want is yet to find his level and highly-related youngster Jamie Hamilton's progress has stagnated and loanee Luke Matheson looks lost. Lewis Smith and Josh Mullen are bright sparks but otherwise the midfield has struggled, though this might improve when Lewis Spence gets fit and Miko Virtanen is played in his more natural deeper role. And up top the long-term injuries that have limited forwards David Templeton and Andy Winter to one start between them have left them dreadfully blunt with just Andy Ryan and David Moyo to pick from. Still, are they really so weak that they could go down again? Surely not...


    INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE    A
    ICT are not only top of the table but five points clear, which makes it all the more remarkable that they have blown their opponents away in only one half of football so far - the second forty-five at home to Partick Thistle. Otherwise they've proven adept at grinding out results, often getting in front and seeing out the game with relative comfort and control without really getting out of second gear. It could be argued that there is plenty of room for improvement, but is just as possible that they could regress to the mean. It feels a far cry from the intial poor results and performances in the League Cup under Billy Dodds though; after some rocky defending in those matches the Kirk Broadfoot-marshalled backline has turned into a strength. Mark Ridgers is the sort of reliable keeper that many clubs would die for, and the most important veteran is ex-Ross County midfielder Michael Gardyne who has chipped in with four goals. A more reliable goalscorer would really make this team dangerous - Billy Mckay is threatening to fill this role having finally got a run in the team - and whilst it is debatable if they have the depth to stay at the top all season one would suspect a few quid could be found behind the sofa for reinforcements if they are in the mix come January.


    KILMARNOCK    B-
    Tommy Wright essentially signed a new team following relegation and so it maybe shouldn't be that surprising that Killie are still a work in progress. That said, the club's budget is light years ahead of their peers and so expectations are, and should be, higher than third in the table at this point. Has Wright found his best team yet, or even his best formation? He seemed to start out with a 4-2-3-1 which would bring the best out of Liam Polworth but difficulty in breaking down deep-lying opponents, plus attacking reinforcements, has led back to 4-4-2. With Oli Shaw, Callum Hendry and Scott Robinson available up front they now look far more lethal and yet in recent games against Raith and Dunfermline they've started letting in soft goals at the other end. That should be easily fixable though; the trick for Wright will be to reduce the dependence on Chris Burke - 38 in December - for creativity. Both Blair Alston and Fraser Murray need to step up to the plate. But Kilmarnock remain the odds-on favourites for promotion for good reason.


    PARTICK THISTLE    A-
    120 goals have been scored so far in the Championship. 37 of them - nearly a third - have been either for or against Thistle. They have been as entertaining as that sounds. Veteran targetman Brian Graham and young predator Zak Rudden have twelve league goals between them so far, more than seven of the clubs in this division have managed. Scott Tiffoney has been electric on the wing. At the other end of the park keepers Jamie Sneddon and Harry Stone have both blundered on occasions and the back four look decidedly dodgy and exposed. Ian McCall seems to have made his peace with this and is unwilling to sacrifice attacking edge for defensive stability, at least for now. Certainly Thistle can consider themselves to be challengers at the top end of the table and have the right to believe they can emulate the example of Livingston a few years back and win back-to-back promotions. 


    QUEEN OF THE SOUTH    C
    What are appropriate expectations for the Doonhamers? They may be full-time, but this is a squad built mainly by taking fliers on young players from the lower divisions or from outside Scotland. Some, such as striker Lee Connelly (admittedly on loan in this division at Alloa from Sunderland last season) or central defender Roberto Nditi (signed from Forfar Athletic) have been spectacular successes. But most are either still finding their feet or never will. And of the two signings most likely to be described as 'marquee' Aidan Fitzpatrick can at least claim he is still short of match fitness after joining last month but ex-Hearts starlet Harry Cochrane looks like his confidence is completely shot. It's never a good sign when the manager is still changing formations and deciding on his best XI nearly three months in - Wullie Gibson has played in about half-a-dozen different positions already and whilst QOS are seventh in the table they have lost more matches than anyone else and it feels as if they are heavily dependent on Connolly for goals. If he can't keep it up, they will be in a tough spot.


    RAITH ROVERS    A-
    After Regan Hendry left in the summer and Lewis Vaughan injured his knee again, Rovers were expected to regress. In fact they've barely missed a beat. John McGlynn has stuck with a crisp passing game where the full-backs are encouraged to be extremely adventurous - in the win at Rugby Park Liam Dick scored and Reghan Tumilty set up a late goal with a lung-busting run up the pitch - and wingers Dario Zanatta and Aidan Connolly drive infield. Zanatta looks back to his best after two rotten seasons at Partick and Ayr. In defence Christophe Berra has looked far more comfortable (and far less exposed?) than he did at Hearts last season and has quickly formed a good partnership with Kyle Benedictus, while Jamie MacDonald is still a fine keeper. It's a marker of the progress the club are making that they were able to sign ex-Aberdeen midfielder Ethan Ross last week; when he is up to speed his arrival protects nicely against the impending exit of Dylan Tait in January to Hibs. Raith's obvious weakness is up top where loanees Ethan Varian and Matej Poplatnik put in big shifts but rarely look like scoring. Regardless of that this is a side who are certainly one of the best in this league.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  16. hislopsoffsideagain
    The keeper and back four can be found here.


    We're going 4-2-3-1 this year, as for some reason none of the strikers in this league could hit Adam Rooney levels of goalscoring, let along Michael Higdon levels. On the other hand, the midfield could get a bit over-run and there may be more wingers than there are wings. Still, it's my site and my rules, so there.


    CENTRAL MIDFIELD: CALLUM MCGREGOR (CELTIC), JOE ARIBO (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Lewis Ferguson (Aberdeen), David Turnbull (Celtic), Tom Rogic (Celtic), Jason Holt (Livingston)


    McGregor fits into Ange's system like a glove and is back to the high levels he hit in Brendan Rodgers' time. Is Aribo too attacking for this position in my XI? Maybe, but there's no question he should be in it. I wouldn't be surprised if Premier League clubs come calling this summer.


    Maybe Ferguson only stood out for Aberdeen because his competence was out of keeping with the shambles unfolding around him this season. Turnbull was great until an injury mid-season and is the player best placed to take advantage of the imminent exit of Rogic; the Australian leaves Scottish football having had possibly the best and certainly the most consistent campaign of his career. Holt was super-efficient in Livi's midfield.




    ATTACKING MIDFIELD: REGAN CHARLES-COOK (ROSS COUNTY), BARRIE MCKAY (HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN), JOTA (CELTIC)
    Honourable mentions: Connor Ronan (St. Mirren), Martin Boyle (Hibernian), Alan Forrest (Livingston), Liel Abada (Celtic), Ryan Kent (Rangers), Greg Kiltie (St. Mirren)


    As I said, too many wingers. But Charles-Cook (who some idiot who shall remain nameless put in his top ten worst signings of last season) was the top scorer in the Premiership this season, McKay would have been an assist machine had anyone finished off the gazillion chances he created, and Jota will be a bargain if Celtic make his loan move permanent for about £6m.


    Ronan stood out for St. Mirren because he scored so many Goal Of The Season contenders, but his all-round play was excellent too. Boyle was clearly Hibernian's MVP given how they fell off a cliff following his January departure. Forrest came to life after the winter break and is heading for a decent move when his contract expires. Abada isn't even 21 yet but still hit double figures. Kent wasn't as impressive as last season but even when he's putting in half-assed performances he's still better than most. I have a big soft spot for Kiltie and he delivered when he finally got a run in the team.




    CENTRE FORWARD: ALFREDO MORELOS (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Kyogo Furuhashi (Celtic), Tony Watt (Motherwell/Dundee United)


    No, Morelos wasn't as good as he has been in the past. But he was still effective and was showing signs of his best before injury ended his campaign. Kyogo's extraordinary start to his Celtic career was abruptly halted by injuries as well; imagine the damage he could do if available for more than half the games. Watt gets on this list for his performances for Motherwell before January where he scored nine goals, rather than a meh-second half of the season at Dundee United.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  17. hislopsoffsideagain
    To be honest, these days the Premiership preview is a slog to write. That's partly because my own team aren't in it, partly because I don't have the time to do pieces on individual clubs anymore and partly because for my entire football life it has been either a one horse or two horse race. And a race like that isn't interesting unless you're backing one of the two horses, So I'm happy to accept that this is a bit thin and fully expect to be quickly proved wrong on most of it before the clocks go back.
    The prediction I'm most confident of? That the gap between second and third - which was 28 points last season - will not come down to below 20 points. With Celtic rolling in the Champions League money and Rangers with a chance to do the same, that chasm is not closing.
    I suppose I'd better make a title prediction. Celtic have pretty much kept the band together, while Rangers lost Calvin Bassey and Joe Aribo. Whilst Giovanni Van Bronckhorst has signed some intriguing players, I'm going to go with the tried and tested and fancy another Championship for Ange Postecoglu. But neither team will drop points often.
    It is far more fun to discuss the clubs who are in crisis. The obvious place to start is at St. Johnstone, who were 45 minutes away from the drop before finding their mojo against Inverness, but they have now lost Zander Clark, Jamie McCart, Shaun Rooney and Callum Hendry and replaced them with guys who aren't that far away from Masters football. There is a fine line between 'experienced' and 'washed-up'. The biggest concern is that you wouldn't bet on any of their forwards getting near double figures for goals.
    Motherwell might have qualified for Europe but they stank the place out in the second half of last season and have a squad (and tactics, perhaps?) that desperately lack flair. Paul McGinn has been added to a backline that looks okay on paper but has been allergic to a clean sheet in 2022, and aside from the able but erratic Kevin Van Veen it's hard to see much attacking threat. The defeat to Sligo Rovers has justifiably enduced panic in the support and Graham Alexander is feeling under pressure. He certainly needs some new bodies through the door to save his bacon.
    I'm also not feeling great about St. Mirren where Stephen Robinson struggled to make a positive impact after arriving in February. League Cup defeats to both Arbroath and Airdrie don't bode well either. The Buddies will also miss Connor Ronan badly after he returned to Wolves, and he has far bigger suitors for the coming campaign. That said, they have signed seven new players, including Robinson's former Motherwell stalwarts Mark O'Hara and Declan Gallagher who previously played their best under his management. If Australians Ryan Strain and Keanu Baccus are hits then that would be an enormous boost, and Jonah Ayunga has hinted he might have the eye for goal that the club's other forwards lack. It could go either way though.
    As a newly promoted side Kilmarnock are probably obliged to be in this conversation but I'd expect Derek McInnes to make them tough to beat and to grind out enough results to be comfortably safe. Keeping goalie Zach Hemming for another year will help, but sooner or later time will catch up with talisman Kyle Lafferty. If it is sooner, Killie really need Oli Shaw to step up.
    The best of the diddy teams? It's easy enough to make an argument for Hearts again as Lawrence Shankland's signing cancels out the end of Ellis Simms' loan but they will miss John Souttar and I don't know that they have the depth to balance their domestic action with the guaranteed European games. 
    That might open the door for Aberdeen who have been refreshingly aggressive at spending the cash generated by the sales of Calvin Ramsey and Lewis Ferguson. Jim Goodwin certainly has a plan, but it seems pretty high risk, high reward as it depends on a lot of new faces settling quickly and gelling quickly.
    Dundee United's manager's job appears to be afflicted by the same curse as the Defence Against The Dark Arts, but they've found another decent incumbent in Jack Ross and are another club showing some imagination in their recruitment, bringing in Australians Mark Birighitti and Aziz Behich. The former should adequately replace Benjamin Siegrist in goal. Steven Fletcher returns to Scotland 13 years after leaving Hibs and should still have plenty to give even at 35. Most remarkably they convinced Dylan Levitt to sign permanently from Manchester United after a superb loan spell. Whoever is in the dugout, United seem to have a plan.
    That's rather more than can be said for Hibernian, who are surely too good for a relegation fight (though this is Hibs we're talking about, so anything can happen) but new boss Lee Johnson hasn't endeared himself to the fans or anyone else with a dreadful League Cup campaign and then his incredible claims that they were set up to fail by the authorities. Poor Rocky Bushiri, a player that the club supposedly didn't want to sign permanently but had to after playing him in too many meaningless games at the end of last season, and who then was played against Morton when he was suspended. On the plus side David Marshall is a definite upgrade in goal and they got a big fee for Josh Doig but it's hard to see what the club's strategy is right now. The man in charge of recruitment is the owner's son though so it's bound to be fine in the end.
    And that leaves us with clubs that look too strong and too well organized to go down whilst also not quite having the resources to push for third. Livingston continue to punch above their weight thanks to the skills of David Martindale and their creative recruitment that this summer has rustled up ex-Hearts and St. Mirren forward Esmael Goncalves among others. Martindale finally ran out of patience with accident-prone keeper Max Stryjek and has forked out a decent fee - the most they have spent in about twenty years - on goalie Shamal George. Crucially they have in Bruce Anderson a striker who scores more frequently than most in this league. One or two good loan signings would turn them into bona fide top six contenders.
    And lastly Ross County got better and better as 2021/22 progressed, suggesting that whatever your thoughts on him as a person there is no question that Malky Mackay is a top coach. Last year they were dependent on a lot of loan signings who have moved on, along with the superb Regan Charles-Cook. But their relationship with Southampton has allowed them to bring in the exciting young winger Kazeem Olaigbe, while striker Jordy Hiwula has settled in quickly. They've also gone to Canada to get midfielder Victor Loturi and William Akio and improved the defence with the experienced duo of Callum Johnson and Ben Purrington and goalkeeper Jake Eastwood. They should justifiably believe they can make the top half again.
    So here's my predicted table. Should I allow for my suspicion that Hibs, St. Mirren, Motherwell and St. Johnstone will all change managers before Christmas? I suppose it might not change my predictions much...

    1. CELTIC
    2. RANGERS3. HEARTS4. ABERDEEN5. DUNDEE UNITED6. ROSS COUNTY
    7. LIVINGSTON8. HIBERNIAN9. KILMARNOCK10. ST. MIRREN
    11. MOTHERWELL
    12. ST. JOHNSTONE

    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 
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  18. hislopsoffsideagain
    So yeah, this tweet about Rangers' finances got some serious traffic and clogged up my mentions for a couple of days.



    Is it worth noting that not one of however many hundred people who saw that tweet noticed the mistake? Apparently I'm not the only one who can't count to seven...

    The numbers there though. Ooft.

    You don't have to be an accountant - and I'm not - to know that companies don't publish accounts late on a Friday evening if they want attention drawn to them. Though last year Rangers published their accounts on a Wednesday evening during a Rangers match, so I suppose this is a step up from that.

    It seems like the distraction has largely worked. Dave King appeared to be channelling the Iraqi Information Minister when he claimed "the financial year under review was again a positive one" but this line appears to have been swallowed by the Scottish media like a piece of, say, succulent lamb? The only piece of criticism I've seen was on Forbes.com. I don't think too many Scottish football fans check that out. (Of course, if you were cruel you could say the same about this site!)

    Anyroad, my mentions were filled with fans of other clubs claiming imminent liquidation, criticising the SFA for letting this happen, and suggesting that  UEFA's Financial Fair Play rules were being broken. There was also one apparently genuine Rangers fan who seemed to think Dave King is the Messiah.

    People of a certain vintage might remember an Only An Excuse sketch from when Livingston went into administration all those years ago, where a reporter was asked to explain the circumstances in layman's terms and described it as a "help ma boab situation".

    So is it Help Ma Boab time down Govan way? Let's see.


    Turnover is up
    This is the big positive. Not only did income increase, but it shot up dramatically by 63% to £53.2m. The main reason for this is the club's run to the Europa League group stages; income from European competition totalled £14.1m.


    So is the wage bill, but that's probably okay
    First team wages have more than doubled in two years, up to £23m. Overall staff costs are £34.4m which is still well behind Celtic (£56.6m) but is four times that of Aberdeen. That sounds like a huge figure but the wages-to-turnover ratio is 64.6% which is pretty acceptable.


    Those legal fees
    I initally misread this figure as £3.6m and thought "how on earth do you spend £3.6m on lawyers?" By picking a fight with Mike Ashley, that's how.  But in fact its a £3.6m increase in legal fees, so the amount is actually higher than that. Crumbs. The bloke at Forbes says the full figure is £9m but that sounds insane and I couldn't find that in the accounts. The saga of Rangers' kit deal with Hummel ain't over yet and seems likely to cost the club a decent seven-figure sum when it is finally concluded.


    What debts are there?
    "As at 30 June 2019, there are interest-free, unsecured loans with investors amounting to £10.3 million, other commercial loans of £3.0m, whilst the Group also has finance lease agreements totalling £1.2 million".

    This is hard for an amateur like me to decipher. What we do know is that Rangers have got by for years on soft loans from directors which have then been converted to equity further down the line. From what I can tell - and I may be talking out of my arse - it seems like all the soft loans from directors have been converted to equity since June 2019 via a share issue. The flipside is that they also state that there have been another £9.7m of investor loans in the last few months.

    This shares to equity thing has been ongoing throughout the King era. How long can they keep repeating it?

    Meanwhile we know a loan was taken out with financial house Close Brothers in February 2019; this is likely to be the aforementioned 'commerical loan'. The £200,000 of interest payments up till June are presumably related to that loan, which would suggest a pretty high interest rate. This is the problem with not being able to get a loan from a bank.


    A ten million quid hole
    If the Turnover part is the big positive for Rangers fans, then this is the overwhelming negative.

    "At the time of preparation, the forecast identified that the Group would require £10.0m by way of debt or equity funding by the end of season 2019/2020 in order to meet its liabilities as they fall due. The first tranche of funding is required from investors in November 2019".

    Ten million quid.

    For what its worth, in the last few seasons the accounts have also stated extra funding would be required - I believe it was £4.6m in last year's, and £3m the year before.

    Ten million quid.

    And that will be despite the expected income from Rangers' 2019/20 campaign, which includes another qualification for the Europa League and another £14m+ from that.

    One of King's family trusts, Laird Investments, is apparently going to cover the shortfall. Given that during the Takeover Panel saga King described himself as "penniless" because of a lack of control over family trusts, this is worth a raised eyebrow. That said, another one of his family trusts, NOAL, has converted £8.4m of loans into equity in the recent past so perhaps he is putting his money where his mouth is?


    Financial Fair Play
    Are Rangers breaking UEFA's FFP rules? The honest answer is "buggered if I know". The received wisdom is that losses of more than 30million Euros over three years are grounds for sanction, and they would be over that limit. However the FFP regulations are a nightmare to understand, which makes me suspect there are loopholes relating to the amount of money spent on infrastructure etc. With European football so critical to the business plan I find it impossible to believe that the club haven't thought of this.


    Looking ahead
    It feels like Rangers took a huge - even reckless - gamble on progress in Europe last season and this. Lord knows where failure would have left them. But lo and behold Stevie G managed to navigate about a million qualifying rounds and got Rangers access to the Europa League pot of gold.

    The thing is that they've had to take the same gamble again this year. And again they've reached the Europa League. Yet despite that they're still £10m short. Presumably that's because of the £11.5m spent on the likes of Ryan Kent and Filip Helander.

    Moreover, the turnover figure for 2019/20 is unlikely to be particularly higher than 2018/19 - why would it be? And yet with transfer fees and probably another hike in the wage bill, losses will be higher, unless they sell off prize assets like Alfredo Morelos. And that's before the whole Mike Ashley/Hummel stuff.

    So the fear is that the board are taking an even bigger and potentially dangerous punt - on Gerrard delivering the title and access to the untold riches of the Champions League. Pulling that off would solve any financial issues at a single stroke.

    And if they fail? There are plenty out there who would love to see an administration event, But whilst the Big Hoose of cards looks pretty fragile it has done so for several years without actually collapsing. Rangers still look like a financial basket case. But people keep putting money into the basket.


    And one other thing...


    Eros Grezda, I assume?



    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  19. hislopsoffsideagain
    In recent seasons Scottish League Two has been dominated by clubs that have been rather flush with cash for this level - Queen's Park last season, and Cove Rangers the year before. At the other end of the table, the addition in 2015 of a relegation playoff has forced smaller sides who have cruised along at this level for aeons to either ship up or ship out; league mainstays East Stirlingshire and Berwick Rangers have languished in the Lowland League after dropping out of the SPFL, while Brechin City - who finished bottom in the shortened 2019-20 season but were reprieved after the playoffs were cancelled - were finally demoted to the Highland League in May after being defeated by Lowland champions Kelty Hearts.


    And looking at the squads, it's easy to imagine Kelty emulating Queen's Park and Cove; they are odds on favourites with the bookies. But reputations count for little in a division filled with plenty of wily veteran players and seasoned managers who take joy in shooting down any divas they come across...


    ALBION ROVERS (2020/21 - 7th; 2019/20 - 9th; 2018/19 - 9th)
    Rovers work to a really tight budget, and Brian Reid was entitled to see seventh place as a successful outcome last season. The next step is to build further on that. Basically signing Stirling Albion's bench (five players!) is probably a sign of the constraints they're working under though and the loss of ten-goal-striker Matty Aitken to Forfar, and young keeper Harry Stone's return to parent club Hearts will not help their cause. This season may be harder, not easier, than last.


    ANNAN ATHLETIC (2020/21 - 8th; 2019/20 - 7th; 2018/19 - 4th)
    It now seems like every summer Peter Murphy has to build a completely new squad. It maybe wasn't quite so bad this year (just the ten signings!) but they have got just a little weaker each of the last couple of campaigns and will certainly be worrying more about relegation than dreaming of promotion. Getting Tommy Goss from Queen of the South will help up front, but as ever many of the new players have come from teams in the north of England and are something of an unknown to ignorant bloggers like myself.


    COWDENBEATH (2020/21 - 9th; 2019/20 - 4th; 2018/19 - 6th)
    The Blue Brazil dropped off badly last season and would have been in a fix but for Brechin's travails. Gary Bollan likes a lot of experience and Bobby Barr, Liam Buchanan and Kyle Hutton will provide shedloads of that. 36 year old Buchanan returns to the club that gave him his debut nineteen years ago and is looking to score a league goal for the twentieth consecutive season. Cowden will need him to roll back the years, because they are considered amongst the favourites to come bottom.


    EDINBURGH CITY (2020/21 - 2nd; 2019/20 - 2nd; 2018/19 - 3rd)
    The Citizens have been the nearly men of the last few seasons, coming up short to opponents who are just slightly better resourced. The appointment of Gary Naysmith towards the end of last season has coincided with a big refresh of the squad that includes the loss of key players such as defenders Liam Henderson (who has joined Arbroath in the Championship) and Conrad Balatoni and striker Blair Henderson. Lewis Toshney will boost the backline if (big if!) he can stay fit. Last season City lacked a consistent goalscorer and they will be reliant on young loan attackers Alex Ferguson and Ryan Shanley to fire them into the top four again.


    ELGIN CITY (2020/21 - 3rd; 2019/20 - 3rd; 2018/19 - 8th)
    Given that geography makes recruitment a bit trickier, Gavin Price has done well to steer Elgin to two top-three finishes in succession. Aside from losing defensive linchpin Stephen Bronsky this squad remains relatively settled. Kane Hester's goals will always make them a threat (assuming his off-field problems get sorted) and the Dingwall brothers, Tony and Russell, provide an excellent midfield spark. They probably need reinforcements if they have designs on breaking into the top two though.


    FORFAR ATHLETIC (2020/21 - 10th in League One; 2019/20 - 9th in League One; 2018/19 - 2nd in League One)
    Forfar have really slumped since they reached the League One promotion playoffs just over two years ago, and will look at Brechin's decline with trepidation. The hope is that the permanent appointment as manager of Gary Irvine can turn things around and they've certainly rebuilt the squad. There are high hopes for a strike pairing of PJ Crossan and Matty Aitken, while ex-Killie and Dundee United midfielder Craig Slater should stroll it if he can stay fit. Dundee loanees Sam Fisher and Luke Strachan will also be assets and they are entitled to target a quick return to League One.


    KELTY HEARTS (2020/21 - 1st in Lowland League; 2019/20 - 1st in Lowland League; 2018/19 - 3rd in Lowland League)
    Kelty do not plan to be in the fourth tier for long - a squad that already contained the quality of midfielders Michael Tidser and Thomas Reilly and forwards Kallum Higginbotham and Nathan Austin has been supplemented with ex-Dundee centre-back Jordon Forster, former Rangers youngster Jamie Barjonas and evergreen winger Joe Cardle. Rookie coach Kevin Thomson will be aiming for back-to-back promotions, which would be some progress for a club that finished fourteenth in the Junior East Super League seven seasons ago.


    STENHOUSEMUIR (2020/21 - 6th; 2019/20 - 8th; 2018/19 - 9th in League One)
    Stenny have really underwhelmed the last two seasons and punted boss Davie Irons when it became clear they'd finish in the bottom half again. New manager Stephen Swift comes from the Lowland League and has signed a SPFL-high twenty players already, holding onto only three from last year's squad. Undoubtedly there's some quality there - defender Sean Crichton, midfielder Ross Forbes and striker Robert Thomson give them a very high quality backbone. But how long will it take them to gel? A slow start wouldn't be a surprise but would hamper any playoff aspirations.


    STIRLING ALBION (2020/21 - 5th; 2019/20 - 6th; 2018/19 - 5th)
    Making the playoffs only once in six seasons at this level is a gross underachievement for Stirling, who stuck with boss Kevin Rutkiewicz despite missing the top four yet again. Andy Ryan's return to full-time football is a blow, with Dale Carrick his replacement up top. Midfielders Ray Grant and Rabin Omar weren't good enough for the Championship but should impress at this level, but it would be a stretch to claim they are stronger than in 2020/21.


    STRANRAER (2020/21 - 4th; 2019/20 - 10th in League One; 2018/19 - 8th in League One)
    It was a turbulent offseason in the South-West with manager Stevie Farrell leaving for Dumbarton and then a massive public fallout amongst the board. Ex-Hearts midfielder and Derek Adams-bodyslammer Jamie Hamill is the new man in the dugout, which means they'll likely miss his influence on the pitch. The loss of exciting young forward Ruari Paton to Queen of the South leaves them still looking for a credible goal threat and this is quite a young squad that may be up against it to repeat last season's playoff finish.




    So here's my prediction for how they'll rank:


    1. KELTY HEARTS


    2. FORFAR ATHLETIC
    3. EDINBURGH CITY
    4. STENHOUSEMUIR


    5. ELGIN CITY
    6. STIRLING ALBION
    7. STRANRAER
    8. ALBION ROVERS
    9. ANNAN ATHLETIC


    10. COWDENBEATH


    As always, I look forward to being proven spectacularly wrong!


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  20. hislopsoffsideagain
    As you will all be acutely aware, in a Covid-free universe the Scotland National Team would have marched inexorably through the spring playoffs and into Euro 2020. Israel at home? Pah. We managed to beat Israel at home with Alex McLeish in charge. Israel are so cack that James Forrest scored a hat-trick against them.

    And then Norway away, probably. Sure, Erling Haaland looks like a bit of a player, but he looks to be the perfect size and shape for Charlie Mulgrew's back pocket. Besides, Norway are under as much pressure as us over not qualifying for tournaments for practically forever. They'd have definitely wilted under the pressure of satisfying an anxious Oslo support, just as Haaland would have wilted once he'd stared into Scott McKenna's cold, dead eyes.

    And therefore we should be awaiting, around this point, the announcement of the squad - the twenty-three players (including three goalkeepers) that would take us to glory...or at least a fighting shot at being one of the best third-placed sides in a group with England, Croatia and the Czech Republic.

    So I thought it might be fun to pick my own Scotland squad. Which it was, right up until the point I had to whittle it down to twenty-three from an original list of thirty-five. Then it stopped being fun and started being a case of typing with one hand whilst putting the other on my stressed forehead.

    I don't buy the idea of two players for every position - at least, certainly not when it comes to attackers. Different types of players are needed for different situations. Some injury cover is definitely required but so too are guys who you'd bring off the bench if you were chasing a goal...or hanging onto a slender lead. But striking the balance is decidedly easier said than done.

    So here's my pop at it. I suspect many of you will have your own thoughts - constructive ones, I hope! - and I look forward to hearing them. Anyone who has previously retired from international football wasn't getting back in, no matter how much Allan McGregor and Scott Brown begged...



    GOALKEEPERS: DAVID MARSHALL (WIGAN ATHLETIC), JON MCLAUGHLIN (SUNDERLAND), ROBBY MCCRORIE (RANGERS)

    When I was a boy, I swear goalkeeper felt like a position of strength for Scotland. Not so now. Marshall is the only stonewall-certain pick here and would start between the sticks. With Allan McGregor out of the picture and Craig Gordon having not played a league game since December 2018 the other two slots are wide open. I initially listed Scott Bain because he would be my number two if he played as well as he did for Celtic in early 2019 but that was a long time ago. In contrast McLaughlin has been a regular in squads and so I imagine he'd be on the plane though being a starter in League One doesn't give him or Portsmouth's Craig MacGillivray much kudos in my eyes. I know very little about MacGillivray, which perhaps unfairly counts against him. The third keeper is never going to play, so is it really worth taking a veteran? Instead I plump for the guy who I think will be Marshall's long-term successor, Robby McCrorie, for the experience. He gets the nod just ahead of QPR's Liam Kelly. That also means - spoiler alert - that Rangers fans won't moan that I haven't picked any of their players...



    FULL-BACKS: ANDREW ROBERTSON (LIVERPOOL), KIERAN TIERNEY (ARSENAL),  GREG TAYLOR (CELTIC), STEPHEN O'DONNELL (KILMARNOCK)

    How many left-backs can we pick? Captain Robbo is obviously going to start, while I maintain that a fully-fit and committed Tierney would potentially be our best option at right-back and possibly even in central-defence (you laugh, but wait till you see the list of centre-backs). Taking Greg Taylor can be justified if he was considered as Robertson's backup (since I'm playing Tierney somewhere else in the backline). If not, he would surely be the highest-quality player left behind. Callum Paterson, who is named later, would also be an acceptable right-back option so you can probably get away with picking one natural right-back. I suppose it would be helpful to take someone who actually plays the position naturally, so I'll plump for Stephen O'Donnell over Liam Palmer. I'd like to think O'Donnell wouldn't play but he's a known quantity to Clarke and his banter (and baking ability) won't do squad morale any harm.



    CENTRE-BACKS: SCOTT MCKENNA (ABERDEEN), LIAM COOPER (LEEDS UNITED), CHARLIE MULGREW (BLACKBURN ROVERS)

    This is where I should probably dig out the Frasier "Dear God!" gif. Would I be confident with any of the available centre-backs playing in a major tournament? Hell, no. What a bunch. I'm certain Clarke would pick Mulgrew because of his experience but I still have nightmares about how Artem Dzyuba benchpressed him in Moscow. McKenna is a cert too, even if he hasn't kicked on enough in the last year or so for my liking; at least his forehead remains a ball magnet. I probably rate Liam Cooper too highly but I'd rather have him facing Harry Kane than Declan Gallagher and Stuart Findlay, good as they have been in the Premiership this season. If I'm gambling on Tierney as a central defender (please don't @ me) then I reckon I can leave Gallagher, Findlay and Grant Hanley behind, so I can pick more midfielders and forwards. It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off.



    CENTRAL MIDFIELDERS: JOHN MCGINN (ASTON VILLA), CALLUM MCGREGOR (CELTIC), KENNY MCLEAN (NORWICH CITY), JOHN FLECK (SHEFFIELD UNITED), SCOTT MCTOMINAY (MANCHESTER UNITED)

    From a position where we have no quality to one where we have it in spades. Clarke will probably start with a central midfield trio, and if they're fit I'd guess McTominay, McGregor and McGinn would be those three picks. That would also give a decent balance of qualities in and out of possession. McLean has looked decent as part of a deep double pivot and could play there at times when parking the bus is required. Fleck would be a perfectly decent backup for both McGregor and McGinn. The romantic in me wants Billy Gilmour as a bit of an X-factor, but I just couldn't find space for him. I couldn't see a situation where he or Ryan Jack would start or likely come off the bench, so they stay at home.



    ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS/WIDE PLAYERS: RYAN CHRISTIE (CELTIC), JAMES FORREST (CELTIC), RYAN FRASER (BOURNEMOUTH), CALLUM PATERSON (CARDIFF CITY), STUART ARMSTRONG (SOUTHAMPTON)

    I've already pencilled in Paterson because of his versatility - he could do a job at right-back, as an attacking midfielder and up front. Two of Christie, Forrest and Fraser should be in the starting XI. I very nearly left Stuart Armstrong out but I just love his hair too much. That, and his box-to-box engine offers something a bit different. But mostly it's because of the hair.



    STRIKERS: OLI MCBURNIE (SHEFFIELD UNITED), LEIGH GRIFFITHS (CELTIC), LAWRENCE SHANKLAND (DUNDEE UNITED)

    And that leaves me with space for all of three centre-forwards. Griffiths has to be one going by his apparent return to form. I think McBurnie has to be the other as he is best placed to play as a target man. And I have to have Shankland because he's the bloke coming on when we're 1-0 down with ten minutes left. I'm not confident the declining Steven Naismith offers enough to make the cut. Oli Burke misses out too.


    So that's the twenty-three then. The players I considered but who didn't pick were Liam Kelly, Craig MacGillivray, Liam Palmer, Stuart Findlay, Declan Gallagher, Grant Hanley, Billy Gilmour, Ryan Jack, Mikey Johnston, Johnny Russell, Oli Burke and Steven Naismith

    There's bound to be someone I've forgotten, isn't there?

    Anyway, it's all academical because, by the time Euro 2021 comes around, a lot will have changed. Billy Gilmour will have become the British Xavi, Leigh Griffiths will be back to his 2017 level and finally we'll have a competent central defender.

    Well, maybe not the last one...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 

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  21. hislopsoffsideagain
    The initial countdown from 25 to 11 can be found here.  
    This is the ninth time we've done this. The eight previous 'winners':
    2012/13: Rory Boulding (Kilmarnock)
    2013/14: Stephane Bahoken (St. Mirren)
    2014/15: Jim Fenlon (Ross County)
    2015/16: Rodney Sneijder (Dundee United)
    2016/17: Joey Barton (Rangers)
    2017/18: Eduardo Herrera (Rangers)
    2018/19: Umar Sadiq (Rangers)
    2019/20: Madis Vihmann (St. Johnstone)


    You'll note that we've never previously named a Celtic player at the top of this list. It won't surprise anyone that this is about to change...


    10. MICHAEL O'CONNOR (ROSS COUNTY)

    County took a flier on talented but troubled Irish striker O'Connor, whose gambling problems had scuppered big moves previously. He signed a two year deal in September and lasted less than three months, making a single sub appearance in the League Cup. What was particularly curious was the club's statement regarding his exit, where they stated he had "resigned". I mean, since when has a player resigned? This raises more questions than answers...



    9. DREY WRIGHT (HIBERNIAN)

    When I put out feelers on Twitter for potential candidates for this list, about a million (approximately) Hibs fans named Wright, signed from St. Johnstone last summer where he had impressed on the wing. Perhaps Jack Ross' tendency to use wing-backs rather than wingers has limited Wright's opportunities, but he's played just a single minute of league football in the last three months as he has become increasingly distanced from first team opportunities.



    8. JORDAN WHITE (MOTHERWELL)

    White has markedly improved since joining Ross County in January...which wouldn't be hard. Many (including myself) were dubious as to whether he could make the step up from the Championship, and by the end of August he had gone from ineffective starter to being an impact sub who made no impact. He failed to score or assist in any matches for the Steelmen and discounting the first half of his first start, they went onto score only one goal - a late consolation in a 5-1 defeat - with him on the pitch. In Dingwall he has at least come up with a winning goal against Celtic.



    7. REGAN CHARLES-COOK (ROSS COUNTY)

    Wideman Charles-Cook was seen as an exciting acquisition from Gillingham, and clearly he has something in his locker as both Stuart Kettlewell and John Hughes have given him more opportunities than other wingers in the County squad. But he's managed zero goals and zero assists in the league and the website WhoScored.com rates him as the worst outfield player in the Premiership this season. Many County fans are bemused that Jermaine Hylton in particular has had far fewer chances to impress.



    6. JAKE HASTIE (MOTHERWELL)

    That golden four months at the end of the 2018/19 season seem long ago now. Motherwell got £350,000 in compensation from Rangers for him that summer and got the player back - on loan - a year later. Still only 22, Hastie looks a shadow of the starlet he once was, starting just four games and carving out a role only as an unused sub. He still has two years left on his Ibrox deal, but it's clear he is in danger of not fulfilling his potential.



    5. COLLIN QUANER (ST MIRREN)

    It's only three seasons since Quaner was playing regularly in the Premier League with Huddersfield Town, and his arrival at St. Mirren looked like a potential coup. But the German forward had been without a club for six months before joining the Buddies in January and was subbed off with an injury on his debut only 20 minutes after coming on. He managed two more appearances, winning a very, very, very, very etc. soft penalty against Ross County before a fruitless start at Ibrox, and then got injured again with Jim Goodwin confirming that his season - and probably his career in Paisley - are over. 



    4. AARON CHAPMAN (MOTHERWELL)

    Motherwell signed Chapman as "experienced cover and competition for Trevor Carson" - their words. Well had so much confidence in him that when Carson got hurt they went out and signed another keeper, Jordan Archer. When Archer left at the end of December and Carson got injured yet again Chapman had to start a derby at Hamilton where in a 3-0 defeat he frankly looked like an outfielder playing in goal. He had actually started three other league games prior to that where he looked confident, but that Accies match will be all that Motherwell fans remember of him.



    3. ANTHONY STOKES (LIVINGSTON)

    This one can be filed under 'farce'. The veteran forward joined Livi in August, only to leave within a few weeks because he couldn't cope with training on astroturf. You'd think that would be the sort of thing you'd check out before you signed the player? He never played a game for the club. Since then, Stokes has been charged with headbutting a man, put on an anti-domestic abuse course and been accused of stalking his ex-partner, so perhaps Livingston dodged a bullet here.



    2. VASILIS BARKAS (CELTIC)

    Is Barkas salvageable? That'll be one of the big early questions for Celtic's new permanent manager, but recent reports suggest he will probably leave this summer. It's true that it can sometimes take foreign keepers a bit of time to adjust to British football, but for £4.5m Neil Lennon was entitled to expect the Greek to get the hang of it much quickly. Instead by December he was ditched for the Scottish Cup Final in favour of Conor Hazard (!), and every time he was recalled he seemed to quickly blot his copybook. Lennon hardly helped, seemingly scapegoating him when results are bad; after one disappointing performance he told the press of the need to build Barkas' confidence up with a run of more straightforward matches...and promptly dropped him for the next game, at home to Hamilton. It has been a complete and utter disaster for club and player.



    1. SHANE DUFFY (CELTIC)

    Until he came north, Shane Duffy was not a bad footballer - you don't play a hundred Premier League games and win forty caps for Ireland by being crap. But he was an old-fashioned big, strong, no-nonsense centre-back with not much pace, which made him an abysmal fit for a Celtic team that plays a high line and passes the ball out from the back. After he scored in his first two games one journalist quipped that Duffy might end up with a superior goal difference on his own to the teams he played against; as it stands that record is currently minus-30. His confidence is shot and his stock has fallen so far that he has been replaced by Stephen Welsh for the last couple of months as he awaits the end of his nightmare loan spell. He has cost Celtic more than £3m in loan fees and wages.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  22. hislopsoffsideagain
    We have only a couple of months of the season left, and by my count there are - at the time of writing - 141 Premiership players whose contracts are up in the summer. With Covid having impacted finances there are going to be some big budgetary decisions at some clubs to come. And there are many well-known names - often club stalwarts - who may be at risk of the axe. Here's my take on who will stay and who will go...(as ever, I look forward to being proven completely and utterly wrong) 


    ABERDEEN
    Out of contract (9): Bruce Anderson, Michael Devlin, Tommie Hoban, Greig Leigh, Shay Logan, Niall McGinn, Ethan Ross, Ash Taylor, Miko Virtanen
    Loans ending (4): Callum Hendry, Fraser Hornby, Florian Kamberi, Gary Woods
    There are some significant decisions ahead for Derek McInnes. Are long-time club servants McGinn and Logan (both mostly substitutes this season) finished at this level? Are injury-prone defenders Devlin, Hoban and Leigh worth persisting with? Both Hoban and Taylor have played plenty this season. Ross and Virtanen have recently been recalled from loan spells to sit on the bench, while Anderson seems unlikely to get a new deal given that he has been loaned out to Hamilton.
    It's certainly possible that some or all of the Dons' loan signings could extend their stay; Woods would be a good veteran backup for Joe Lewis, while Hendry, Hornby and Kamberi all have the chance to impress.


    CELTIC
    Out of contract (3): Scott Brown, Karamoko Dembele, Armstrong Okoflex
    Loans ending (4): Shane Duffy, Mohamed Elyounoussi, Jonjoe Kenny, Diego Laxalt
    Brown will be 36 in the summer and it's hard to see a scenario in which he's a regular contributor next season. If his leadership will be badly missed, it's because Celtic have totally failed to prepare for a future without him. But the player himself has claimed he has been told "it is completely and utterly up to myself  whether I want to stay"...isn't that a decision that needs to be made by an incoming DoF and Head Coach?
    Dembele and Okoflex were once considered wonderkids and their failure to fulfil their potential so far does not reflect well on anyone.
    The supporters would probably like to forget as soon as possible that Duffy and Laxalt ever played for them. Surely Elyounoussi will not remain for a third year on loan at a club where he is in and out of the team. And surely Kenny, only a year removed from impressing in the Bundesliga, will set his sights higher than staying at Celtic for the long term.
    I imagine most Celtic fans will look at the list of names above and think to themselves "I wish this list was longer"...


    DUNDEE UNITED
    Out of contract (2): Peter Pawlett, Dillon Powers
    Loans ending (2): Luke Bolton, Marc McNulty
    United have remarkably few players not under contract beyond the summer, so there's not much to say here. Neither Pawlett nor Powers has impressed enough to earn a new deal. McNulty has been a disappointment during his loan spell, while Bolton has been in and out of the side.


    HAMILTON ACCIES
    Out of contract (9): Brian Easton, Kyle Gourlay, Aaron Martin, Reegan Mimnaugh, Kyle Munro, Hakeem Odoffin, Marios Ogkmpoe, George Stanger, Nathan Thomas
    Loans ending (2): Bruce Anderson, Lee Hodson
    Obviously Hamilton's actions will heavily depend on whether they stay up, but regardless they will struggle to hold onto Odoffin, who has been so impressive in recent months in midfield. Ogkmpoe continues to be a first choice up front and one assumes there will be a new deal for him if he wants it. Easton has largely stayed fit this season and would certainly be a sentimental choice for a new contract. Martin has been a first choice since signing. Munro and Mimnaugh are on the fringes of the starting lineup and are more likely to be extended than fellow youngster Stanger. Gourlay would probably be a cheap backup keeper. Thomas has rarely played due to injuries.
    Regarding the loan players, Hodson may fancy finally putting down some roots after a string of loan moves. Anderson has found a better fit here than at Aberdeen and I bet Brian Rice would love to keep him.


    HIBERNIAN
    Out of contract (5): Kevin Dabrowski, Jackson Irvine, Matt Macey, Ofir Marciano, Stephen McGinn
    Loans ending:
    Three of these players are the club's three goalkeepers. Marciano has been offered a new deal but is wanted by clubs in his native Israel. Macey has played understudy to since arriving in January, while Dabrowski impressed on loan at Dumbarton earlier in the season but its unclear if Hibs consider him to be a potential number one going forward.
    As for the outfielders, Irvine may fancy he could get better wages if he returned south, while McGinn was signed only as a depth piece and its hard to see him making many first team appearances going forward.


    KILMARNOCK
    Out of contract (25): Tomas Brindley, Kirk Broadfoot, Chris Burke, Innes Cameron, Kyle Connell, Diaguely Dabo, Euan Deveney, Gary Dicker, Clevid Dikamona, Nicke Kabamba, Greg Kiltie, Kyle Lafferty, Ross Millen, Youssouf Mulumbu, George Oakley, Mitch Pinnock, Josh Rennie, Danny Rogers, Craig Ross, Keir Russell, Ally Taylor, Aaron Tshibola, Steven Warnock, Calum Waters, Danny Whitehall
    Loans ending (4): Colin Doyle, Zech Medley, Brandon Pierrick, Zeno Rossi
    This Killie list is bloated by the number of youngsters who made first team appearances in the League Cup due to a Covid outbreak - it also means that it's possible I'm wrong about their contract status.
    Looking at the more established players, it will be interesting to see how Tommy Wright feels about veterans like Broadfoot, Burke, Dicker and Mulumbu. Lafferty may see this short-term contract as putting himself in the shop window, but his arrival has limited minutes for Kabamba, Oakley and Whitehall. It would be a surprise if first choice keeper Rogers left. Tshibola has been reliable enough too, while the jury is out on Dabo, Alex Dyer's last signing. Dikamona has been a disappointment and may not be as cheap to resign as fellow defenders Millen and Waters, though whether the latter two are up to standard is another matter. Kiltie has shown flashes but might benefit from a change of scenery. Pinnock hasn't really shown any flashes at all.
    One suspects that if Brindley, Cameron, Connell and Taylor haven't broken into the lineup by now they probably never will.
    It's unlikely any of the loan players remain after May. Doyle was a convenient backup keeper while Medley, Rossi and Pierrick are clearly here with a view to development.


    LIVINGSTON
    Out of contract (14): Efe Ambrose, Raffaele De Vita, Nicky Devlin, Jay Emmanuel-Thomas, Jon Guthrie, Steve Lawson, Alan Lithgow, Gary Maley, Josh Mullen, Carlo Pignatiello, Scott Robinson, Ross Stewart, Aaron Taylor-Sinclair, Scott Tiffoney
    Loans ending (3): Djibril Diani, Robby McCrorie, Julien Serrano
    It's safe to assume Livi will want to hold onto Devlin, Guthrie, Mullen and Robinson, all of whom have been significant contributors this season. Ambrose's age may work against him a bit, while Lawson has looked good when playing but hasn't played that much. Lithgow's future may be up in the air due to long-term injury, while De Vita and Stewart have been out on loan this season and shouldn't be expected back. Emmanuel-Thomas, Taylor-Sinclair and Tiffoney have failed to establish themselves and are likely to go too. If Maley gets a new deal, this year it probably won't be put to an internet vote...
    Serrano has made himself the first choice left-back and you could see a permanent deal being worked out there. McCrorie hasn't had a great season though while Diani hasn't played yet and so is a complete unknown.


    MOTHERWELL
    Out of contract (18): Allan Campbell, Aaron Chapman, Robbie Crawford, Devante Cole, Dean Cornelius, David Devine, Charles Dunne, Sam Foley, Scott Fox, Declan Gallagher, Christopher Long, Ross Maciver, Bevis Mugabi, Stephen O'Donnell, Liam Polworth, Harry Robinson, Sherwin Seedorf, Jamie Semple
    Loans ending (6): Jake Hastie, Liam Kelly, Tyler Magloire, Eddie Nolan, Jordan Roberts, Harry Smith
    This is a long list, so - assuming Well don't go down - there's certainly going to be an opportunity for Graham Alexander to revamp this squad if he so wishes. It would seem unlikely that Campbell, Gallagher or O'Donnell will remain; Gallagher has supposedly triggered an extension in his contract but the club have been coy about that and he has a lot of suitors. Meanwhile don't expect to see Chapman, Foley, Robinson or Seedorf retained, and long-term absentees Fox and Dunne will find it hard to justify new deals. Alexander will probably want to keep first team regulars Cole, Crawford and Mugabi, but Polworth is out of favour just now and Long only came back to the club last summer after not finding a better offer elsewhere.
    Goalkeeper Kelly and centre-back Magloire have impressed on loan so far, while Roberts has already shown more than he did for Hearts. They're more likely to stay for the long-term than Hastie (who has been a non-factor), Smith (who has been mostly injured) and Nolan (who may not even exist).


    RANGERS
    Out of contract (9):  Leon Balogun, Jamie Barjonas, Steven Davis, Jermain Defoe, Daniel Finlayson, Andy Firth, Allan McGregor, Dapo Mebude, Greg Stewart
    Loans ending (1): Bongani Zungu


    It's already safe to say that there will be no new deal for 38 year old Defoe, now fourth choice striker despite being on £30,000/week, but 36 year old Davis is still highly thought of and Steven Gerrard wants him to stay. Stewart will be away, and Barjonas, Finlayson and Mebude will need to try their luck elsewhere after failing to make the step up from the academy. Firth is probably an inexpensive third choice keeper.
    The main questions are whether 39 year old McGregor hangs up his gloves, whether Balogun has done enough as a useful backup to justify a new deal and whether the recent Covid embarrassment scuppers Zungu's chances of signing permanently.


    ROSS COUNTY
    Out of contract (20): Tony Andreu, Josh Black, Ross Draper, Michael Gardyne, Jermaine Hylton, Ross Laidlaw, Mohamed Maouche, Billy Mckay, Callum Morris, Ross Munro, Jason Naismith, Connor Randall, Blair Spittal, Jordan Tillson, Carl Tremarco, Iain Vigurs, Keith Watson, Jordan White, Ben Williamson, Matthew Wright
    Loans ending (4): Joe Hilton, Leo Hjelde, Stephen Kelly, Charlie Lakin
    The future of a lot of these players will be dependent on what division County play in next year, not least because John Hughes is unlikely to stay on if they go down. The club tend to look after players who have had long tenures, so Gardyne and Vigurs may be kept on with a view to joining the coaching staff further down the line. Also likely to stay regardless are first choice keeper Laidlaw and striker White, who previously spent two years in the Highlands with Inverness. Likely to leave are Draper - whose injury history will make it hard to justify retaining him.- Tremarco, who is well past his best, and Maouche who hasn't even played for the club due to a mixture of injury and personal issues. As for the rest, only Naismith is likely to have Premiership suitors.
    None of the loanees are likely to stay, with the parent clubs of all four likely to see this as a step in their development.


    ST. JOHNSTONE
    Out of contract (15): Callum Booth, Craig Bryson, Craig Conway, Liam Craig, Murray Davidson, Charlie Gilmour, Olly Hamilton, Chris Kane, Stevie May, Guy Melamed, Jordan Northcott, Michael O'Halloran, Elliot Parish, John Robertson, Scott Tanser
    Loans ending (2): James Brown, Glenn Middleton
    Callum Davidson has to decide whether his four veteran midfielders - Bryson (34), Conway (36 in May), Craig (34) and Murray Davidson (33) - are worth extensions. Up front, there are also decisions to be made on Kane and Melamed, who have played well for the last few months, and May and O'Halloran, who have not. You'd imagine one or both left-backs, Booth and Tanser, will be kept on, while Parish is a satisfactory backup keeper. Winter signing Gilmour hasn't had a chance to impress yet while academy products Hamilton, Northcott and Robertson are not really in first team contention.
    Neither of the loan players have forced their way into the first XI so far and there's no sign that either of them have been brought in with a view to remaining long term.


    ST. MIRREN
    Out of contract (12): Cameron Breadner, Dylan Connelly, Jake Doyle-Hayes, Ilkay Durmus, Ryan Flynn, Marcus Fraser, Lewis Jamieson, Nicholas McAllister, Junior Morias, Jonathan Obika, Collin Quaner, Peter Urminsky
    Loans ending (2): Daniel Finlayson, Brandon Mason
    The Buddies will make Eamonn Brophy's loan move permanent in the summer. Jim Goodwin's priority will be retaining Fraser, who has had the best season of his career, and Doyle-Hayes. Connelly and Durmus have also seen plenty of action this season and Obika remains a fan favourite. 
    In contrast, Morias, who is out on loan, will surely be away and Urminsky has failed to rise beyond third choice keeper. Quaner has barely played since arriving in February and so is hard to assess. Finlayson hasn't played at all since joining on loan from Rangers last autumn and Mason has only featured intermittently so don't expect them to stay on.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
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  23. hislopsoffsideagain
    To be blunt, League One should be a two horse race.


    That's not being harsh on the other eight clubs; there are plenty of dangerous teams and quality players elsewhere in this division. But Falkirk and Partick Thistle have so much more to throw at this league than any of the others. As Ray McKinnon discovered at the former last season, struggling to make the top two is not an option.


    David McCracken and Lee Miller have been the Bairns' co-management team since November 2019 and were unbeaten in the league between then and lockdown. That record surely won't last, but given they've been able to sign Blair Alston - Blair Alston! - Aidan Keena, Callumn Morrison and Scott Mercer to play in League One they have every right to fancy their chances.


    The problem for them is that like last year with Raith Rovers, they aren't the only big fish in this pond. Ian McCall has won at this level before with Ayr United and will feel he can repeat that feat with a Thistle squad that retained impressive strikers Zak Rudden and Brian Graham and quality midfielders Stuart Bannigan, Shea Gordon and Joe Cardle. A defence containing Thomas O'Ware, Darren Brownlie and newbie Ciaran McKenna should be solid enough and the arrival of Salim Kouider-Aissa and Blair Spittal on loan means depth shouldn't be a problem.


    Airdrie are the other full-time(ish) club which should mean they are the best bet for third spot. Griffin Sabatini (an Argentinian loaned from a Ukrainian club, as you do) and Thomas Robert (son of Laurent) are surely the most curious signings in the SPFL this summer but they have held onto most of the squad that had got into the playoff places last season. Manager Ian Murray has plenty of quality up front with Calum Gallagher, Dale Carrick, Ally Roy, Eoghan Stokes and Kyle Connell so how far they can go will depend on how well they defend.


    Montrose again did an amazing job of punching above their weight last season - apparently the reason that esteemed boss Stewart Petrie hasn't gone on to better things is that he has a plush day job - and have performed the remarkable feat of not losing a  single senior player from last season (other than loanees going back to parent clubs). The return of Blair Lyons to Partick is somewhat offset by the homecoming of Martin Rennie, and this experienced, well-coached and well-drilled bunch will again look to put 'bigger' clubs to shame.


    Further north, Cove Rangers are not simply aiming to make up the numbers in the third tier after two consecutive promotions. Paul Hartley's side are ambitious, signing Motherwell duo Adam Livingstone and Jamie Semple (on loan) and bringing Leighton McIntosh back to Scotland. Of course, Fraser Fyvie, Mitch Megginson and Rory McAllister are still here too. It would surprise few people if they ended up closer to the top than the bottom.


    East Fife have finished between fifth and seventh in four straight seasons but it seems like Darren Young's job is getting harder every year. Highly-rated striker Anton Dowds has moved onto full-time football but that may be offset by the loan signing of Livingston's Jack Hamilton. Veteran Danny Swanson should have enough nous to shine in the third tier and joins an already experienced bunch that includes Chris Higgins and Stewart Murdoch at the back and blogger extraordinaire Danny Denholm on the wing.


    In contrast Clyde clearly aim to push on in their second season back in League One. Bringing back defender Tom Lang and midfielder Ross Cunningham permanently looks like a coup for a team that will always be dangerous as long as David Goodwillie is up front. He scored twenty league goals last season but no-one else managed more than two. Whilst there has been a lack of attacking reinforcements, Lang, Jamie Bain and Matthew Shiels should strengthen the backline.


    It was a tumultous offseason at Dumbarton, where Jim Duffy had a heart attack in June (he has thankfully recovered) and budget decisions were put off longer than most. That meant the exit of regulars like Joe McKee and Kyle Hutton, but they still have Ross Forbes pulling the strings and he now has Denny Johnstone leading the line in front of him. Getting Sam Wardrop back permanently at right-back was a boost and young Hearts defender Chris Hamilton could do very well on loan.


    Arguably Peterhead had the trickiest summer of the lot; a club that in the past offered better part-time wages than most found themselves being gazumped somewhat by others; a number of players left for League Two or ambitious Lowland League sides instead. Evergreen centre-back Gary McKenzie and forward Isaac Layne are the names that stand out amongst the new boys, while they have taken a chance on futsal star Derryn Kesson and will need big contributions from young loan players from the Dundee clubs.


    And finally Forfar Athletic have been super busy in the last few months as Stuart Malcolm looks to put his stamp on a squad he inherited in November. The pick of the twelve new signings are midfielder Mark Hill, ex-St Johnstone skipper Steven Anderson and attacking trio Jordan Allan, Archie Thomas and Scott Shepherd who step up from League Two. Malcolm will hope that he can prove his success in charge of East Kilbride was no fluke.


    So here's my (inevitably wrong) prediction of how the table will finish:
    1. PARTICK THISTLE


    2. FALKIRK
    3. AIRDRIE
    4. COVE RANGERS


    5. MONTROSE
    6. CLYDE
    7. FORFAR ATHLETIC
    8. DUMBARTON


    9. EAST FIFE


    10. PETERHEAD


    Make sure you take a screenshot so you can remind me of this in May...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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  24. hislopsoffsideagain
    The Premiership increasingly feels like three separate leagues due to the vast financial disparities...so that's how I'm going to treat it for this season's preview...


    THE OLD FIRM/GLASGOW DERBY (delete as applicable) TIER 
    (Finishing outwith the top two, or even less than ten points ahead of third should result in manager and entire squad being hanged, drawn and quartered)


    CELTIC: they say you should never go back, but for Brendan Rodgers I think an exception can be made. Celtic can be pretty pleased with how they've replaced Ange. The loss of Jota was a surprise and you'd think they will bring in a replacement at some point. Rodgers says they aren't going to spend £15m-plus on any players, but if that's the case - even when you have the Jota cash and the Champions League moolah - then how do you ever realistically expect it to get any better than just sweeping the domestic scene and getting pumped in the Champions League groups? Should still be stronger than Rangers, I think.


    RANGERS: a lot depends on just how good this new forward line of Danilo, Sam Lammers and Cyriel Dessers is. And a lot depends on whether they can find a consistent partner for Connor Goldson in terms of either form or availability (*cough* John Souttar *cough*). Left-back is also a potential issue with Borna Barisic beginning to regress and Ridvan Yilmaz yet to look like a viable long-term replacement. Jack Butland looks like an upgrade in goal at least. There's too many unknowns here to tip them to win the title but if those front three turn out to be gems then it could be pretty close.


    THE CONSIDERABLY POORER THAN THE GRUESOME TWOSOME AND CONSIDERABLY RICHER THAN THE REST TIER 
    (finishing second should result in a statue for the manager; finishing sixth or lower, or looking at risk of doing so, will result in the sack)


    ABERDEEN: Barry Robson looks like a good coach. The recruitment team give the impression they know what they are doing. Now can Aberdeen crack the final part of the code - managing the fixture congestion that will come with a European run? Hearts couldn't pull that off last season and it's not clear the Dons have the numbers yet...especially if Ylber Ramadani leaves. If he stays or is adequately replaced the Ramadani-Clarkson-Shinnie midfield looks like dynamite. Rhys Williams and Slobodan Rubezic (think that first name tells you where his family's political views lay) should adequately replace Ross McCrorie and Liam Scales at the back. and either Or Dadia or Nicky Devlin will at last give them a competent right-wingback. I'm still not sure what the plan on the left is (Jonny Hayes?) but this a starting XI that should fire them to third spot...if they aren't all knackered or injured by Christmas.


    HEARTS: The dugout situation - seemingly pretending Frankie McAvoy is in charge until they're knocked out of Europe and they can reveal that Steven Naismith was pulling the strings all along - is a bit farcical. If that doesn't extend to the pitch though Hearts should be stronger than last year, especially if the impending signings of Kenneth Vargas and Kayosuke Tagawa give them enough attacking pace to make up for Josh Ginnelly buggering off. A double pivot of Beni Baningime (back at last from long-term injury) and new signing Calum Nieuwenhof should make their midfield stronger, and you've got Cammy Devlin to snap at heels there too. If McAvaismith can get Kye Rowles and Stephen Kingsley back to their best form and Frankie Kent fills in for long term crock Craig Halkett the defence should be formidable too. And Lawrence Shankland is always going to give you a chance.


    HIBERNIAN: Every time you think Hibs might have got it sussed, they do something so utterly Hibsy to embarrass themselves and the nation, such as getting beaten in Andorra. The big story here though should be them paying £700,000 for Dutch striker Dylan Vente, which is the most money they've spent since they signed a dude who is now a member of the Ecuadorian parliament back in 2001. He had better be good. Elie Youan and Martin Boyle should give them crazy pace up top and Dylan Levitt is a good addition in midfield. Heck, they've even got (very necessary) insurance against David Marshall's form falling off a cliff in new keeper JoJo Wallacott. Like the above duo, Hibs have a very good looking first XI, but their bench isn't too shabby either. The question is whether the players - and the manager - can put it together week in, week out, or whether they will just, well, Hibs it up again.


    THE DIDDY TIER
    (Realistic target is sixth, anything higher is a massive success, but first priority has to always be avoiding relegation)


    DUNDEE: No idea what we're going to get here. Newly promoted, with a new manager in Tony Docherty who is a rookie as a boss but who has huge experience as a coach. He's correctly recognised that the squad was nowhere near good enough for the top flight so he's been busy at both ends, bringing in Trevor Carson in goal and Joe Shaughnessy in defence to provide experience, and using loans from down south to bolster numbers (including getting top scorer Zach Robinson back for another year). There are a couple of Mexicans too to add intrigue. The midfield is very young and inexperienced though. If Docherty can mould a solid lineup quickly and get goals from one of his forwards, they should be okay. But if they start slowly I suspect they'll be near the bottom all season.


    KILMARNOCK: Were effective but not exactly pretty last season...except for the many occasions where they weren't effective or pretty. Derek McInnes has sensibly looked to revamp the defence - what's his deal with signing loanee defenders? He used loads last season and he's doing it again - with Robbie Deas ready to make the step up and Stuart Findlay's return to Rugby Park a huge boost. It feels like it'll be another season of grinding out results though; of the forwards only Kyle Vassell looks likely to score semi-regularly and McInnes' effusive praise recently for the likes of Marley Watkins and the "really talented" Liam Donnelly says a lot. We can still dream that David Watson continues to develop as the Prestwick Pirlo and helps add a touch of flair but we'll see.


    LIVINGSTON: Finished last season really poorly and I just wonder if they are beginning a bit of a downward spiral. As ever David Martindale operates in a different way from everyone else and he's entitled to plenty benefit of the doubt but of their new signings only Mikey Devlin and maybe Mo Sangare improve the team. It feels like they will be in a fair bit of bother if/when Joel Nouble leaves as he will be so difficult to replace. Martindale is also stuck with several players (waves at Esmael Goncalves) that he needs rid of to bring in reinforcements. Could this be the year they stop punching above their weight?


    MOTHERWELL: I didn't expect such a resurgence under Stuart Kettlewell, but the Steelmen were terrific in the second half of the season...fuelled by the extraordinary exploits of Kevin Van Veen who is of course now gone. Away too are Max Johnston, Sean Goss and Mikael Mandron, all starters. And now Calum Butcher is out long term. Frankly that defence looks dicey now, though Macedonian Davor Zdravkovski is an intriguing addition to the midfield. Up top, bringing in Theo Bair looks like the weirdest signing of the summer so far but I imagine he's going to be a backup for Jon Obika (good when fit, which isn't often) and fellow new signings Conor Wilkinson and Mika Biereth. I thought the Van Veen money would have allowed Kettlewell to strengthen, but it seems that it's simply paid off the mistakes his predecessors have made. And so there's a risk they may fall behind simply because they seem to be standing still.


    ROSS COUNTY: Having been within seconds of being relegated last season it seems reaasonable to assume they will be closer to the bottom than the top. To be honest I expected Uncle Roy to dip into his childrens' inheritance a bit more this summer to bring the squad up to scratch but whilst Alex Iacovitti is the only stalwart to depart they are dependent on Championship stalwarts Scott Allardice and Kyle Turner (and Jay Henderson, so good on loan at ICT last season) stepping up to the top flight. Their midfield, also encompassing Yan Dhanda and Ross Callachan, should be decent. Up front they have lots of options but just how confident are you in a combination of two of Eamonn Brophy, Simon Murray, Alex Samuel and Jordan White?


    ST JOHNSTONE: Already in panic mode after a hideous League Cup campaign. Steven MacLean - whose media comments are too reminiscent of Richie Foran for my liking - gutted the squad, which ws the right thing to do, but has struggled badly to bring in new players so far. He'd have probably liked to get rid of more players but inherited a load of jobbers and has-beens inexplicably given long-term deals by Callum Davidson. That is likely to be restricting what he can do just now, but whatever he puts out on the pitch has to be better than the lot that got shellacked 4-0 by Stirling Albion. Dimitar Mitov might be a good goalkeeper. Luke Jephcott might be an okay forward. But even if they live up to those expectations it would be a huge surprise if St Johnstone aren't in another relegation battle. They're certainly my favourites to go down at the time of writing.


    ST MIRREN: Were best of this bunch last season and are a reasonable bet to do the same even though the surprisingly decent forward Curtis Main has left and outstanding keeper Trevor Carson has moved on to after some sort of weird fallout with the club. Whether they've replaced Carson adequately with Zach Hemming is another matter, but there are high hopes for attackers Conor McMenamin - the club's most expensive signing for more than 30 years - Mikael Mandron and Stav Nahmani. New centre-back James Bolton seems pretty highly thought of too. And so far they've retained the outstanding Aussie duo of Ryan Strain and Keanu Baccus, as well as all-action midfielder Mark O'Hara.


    So my predicted table:
    1 CELTIC


    2 RANGERS
    3 ABERDEEN
    4 HIBERNIAN
    5 HEARTS
    6 ST MIRREN


    7 DUNDEE
    8 KILMARNOCK
    9 ROSS COUNTY
    10 MOTHERWELL


    11 LIVINGSTON


    12 ST JOHNSTONE


    And Twitter's take:






    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.    
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  25. hislopsoffsideagain
    It's the hope that kills you. Any Scotland fan knows that all too well.

    And yet, and yet.

    For the first ten minutes last night, Scotland ripped into Russia. The sheer energy and will took the visitors - and the Hampden crowd - by surprise. The full-backs flew down the flanks; Callum McGregor demanded the ball at each stroke; John McGinn snapped at every Russian heel; Scott McTominay bestrode the midfield like a colossus. Steve Clarke's lineup and plan were absolutely perfect for the occasion.

    And then John McGinn scored.

    Goals change games. I'm not sure I've ever seen one change a game like this though. They buoy spirits, lift the crowd, inspire the scorers on.

    Instead Scotland instantly metamorphosed from a feral beast into a frightened hedgehog, unnerved even by the slightest passing breeze and rustle of leaves. This was not as a result of quality play by the opposition, nor pressure from the stands, nor tactical caution from the dugout. Having created a springboard to win the match, the players collectively baulked at actually jumping on it.

    The captain summed it up perfectly afterward. "It was as if it scared us".

    Andrew Robertson was hardly exempt from criticism himself. When cool, experienced heads were required, the captain was stuck in Liverpool mode. Every time the ball came his way he put his head down and charged up the pitch with it, even when every moment pleaded for someone in dark blue to put their foot on the ball, stop and take a deep calming breath. At one point he tried a backheel by the corner flag - his own corner flag.

    They were all at it though. Charlie Mulgrew, 33 years old and with over 40 caps to his name, could be excused for being bullied by Artem Dzyuba, whose physique had more in common with the twenty-two at Murrayfield than the penalty box at Hampden. There was no reason however for him to treat the ball like a hot potato, acting as if Dzyuba was constantly breathing down his neck even when he was twenty yards away catching his breath. Punt after punt after punt after punt. With the midfield struggling to get even into the same postcode as Oli McBurnie it was no surprise that the ball kept coming back.

    And what of the midfield that contains so much talent and started as if they intended to prove it? The quartet playing in front of McTominay looked like rabbits stuck in Lada headlights. James Forrest and Ryan Fraser dropped deeper and deeper, negating their use as an attacking outlet without offering any actual protection to their full-backs. McGregor and McGinn looked stuck in No Man's Land, neither pressing their opponents nor dropping in beside McTominay, who had now gone from proverbial Colossus to actual Colossus, a tall, leaden-footed statue watching as people swarmed around him.

    With the exception of David Marshall, whose outstanding efforts in preventing a shellacking will probably be forgotten, and Stephen O'Donnell, who just had a good old-fashioned mare, this felt very different from, say, a debacle like Kazakhstan where tactics were poor and players looked uncertain and unwilling from the off. Here the plan was great and was initially executed well, which tells us that the manager knew what he was doing and the players had the ability and nous to pull it off. Their subsequent reaction is perhaps more terrifying than if they had just played like horses**t.

    As Robertson said, they were scared.

    I grew up watching players like Colin Hendry, Kevin Gallacher, James McFadden and many others who seemed galvanized by wearing the Scotland shirt in the way we all believed we would be if, as in our dreams, we ever played for the national team. Now the wearers of said shirt appear burdened with the weight of twenty-one years of failure on it. Even in such a favourable situation, with a home crowd behind them and the reassurance of knowing that their strategy was working, the players simply could not deal with the pressure of being ahead against an opponent considered to be superior to them.

    How on earth do you fix that? All the clever management and tactics and quality in the world will only take you so far if in moments like that you simply can't help thinking "we're going to screw this up because we're Scotland".

    The only thing I'm certain of is that you don't fix it by playing Belgium three days later.

    The caveat: even if last night had gone well, the onus was still very much on preparing for those Euro 2020 playoffs. Those are the games that count now. Everything else is about building towards those. And there remains no doubt in my mind that if anyone can pull this off, its Steve Clarke.

    The fear is that even Clarke can't manage it. What if all those years of failure simply infect the Scotland National Team to such an extent that there's no shaking it?

    Or, to put it bluntly, what if there is actually no hope?


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

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