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CaleyCol

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Everything posted by CaleyCol

  1. Amazing how tired and impotent the 'subsidy junkies' argument now reads within the current political climate. Dwarfed by issues like the truly dire treatment of the devolution settlement which we are witnessing The most destructive threat to the Union of the Uk comes from the people who supposedly support it with the most fervour, the Conservative party. Something the Daily Heil and all the other London based newspapers that have hegemony up here forget to tell their elderly readers when they're not screaming about migrants or giving out free bunting. As newspapers are dramatically in decline, online, people are able to see a far more relevant/telling picture More people see Scotland's economic future being better under its own control than the calamitous, trumpian vision for a brave new Brexit Britain The Scottish parliament is very popular in Scotland, with those wishing to abolish it down to a tiny 8%. With 15 minutes of 'debate' (filibustered by a Tory minister not elected within Scotland no less) the UK government's utter contempt for devolution has been laid bare in a remarkable fashion. One Tory's cry of "suicide" in the chamber following the SNP leader's question as to what his members could do, reinforces this. It's no surprise then that the snp membership has gained over 7000 since Wednesday or that figures like the editor behind the Daily Record's 'Vow' have come out in favour of independence. People want neighbours, not sneering masters. People also want their parliament to be treated with respect, especially when it's cross party consensus votes against a bill which destroys devolution conventions and (even according to Tory numbers) will have a negative impact on our economy "What about the respect for the democratic vote of 2014!?" Some may say.... well where has been the respect for the very promises that won that vote? Where's the respect for the 'worlds most powerful devolved parliament' promise or respect for 'if you vote Yes you'll be out of Europe! A no vote is the only guarantee". Time for Scotland to parachute from this particular nosedive
  2. Indeed Charles, the Snp have historically painted themselves in to a corner in that respect, the oil market is a fluctuating one, 'feast or famine' so it doesn't draw enough continuity to provide a solid economic plan built for year upon year. How many people really take heed of GERS in reality though, your average joe on the street isn't going to be discussing the deficit, many won't even know what it is, never mind as a share of the GDP or the fact it's normal to have one, how else do you create growth? The best way to preserve the Uk is to demonstrate Scotland performing economically well within it, a day/week spent advertising or drumming home that "we're fooked" isn't an advert for continuation of the Union. On the other hand, as I said, look what happened with Brexit, wall to wall doom and gloom (a lot of it merited) and warnings of economic collapse and recession, yet 17m people voted Brexit despite that. The independence economic issue was complex in 2014, it's 10 times that now and thus harder to boil down to a binary choice good/bad. The result may well be that a future Indy debate won't be won on fiscal interpretations but other issues. We just don't know
  3. Hi DD, thanks for the welcome, likewise there are too many points to cover but I'll try and pick a few I don't deny there was a left wing case/desire for an eu referendum, but this was very much the animal of the right. The prominence and indeed existence of Ukip was testament to this. It was Cameron's posturing to gain back the Ukipper votes which brought us the referendum. It's that same fact that will ensure a 'hard' Brexit and not a 'soft' one. May has to keep the right winger/devout Brexiters on side and content with the package. The nature of the FPTP system means smaller parties like Ukip only need to threaten to take enough votes to jeopardise the Westminster majority thus they can end up moulding the government itself. When you said "We voted to join with European partners 40 years ago and the EU as it is now is completely different from the Union we voted to join then".. I thought that encapsulated well a good part of how I feel about my vote to endorse the Uk union 2 years ago. The politics, rhetoric and vision of Nigel Farage and Leave won the day on June 23rd shaping the path the Uk is now going to take, watching Mr Farage campaign for Donald Trump this morning underlined the troubling political reality we now find ourselves in. "Please don't confuse grievance with objective criticism! The Independence movement will only win their case if they can persuade the Scottish electorate that Scotland will be better off separate from the UK" The eu ref, the Uk government falling to pieces/going missing and the dramatic economic challenges it's now presented us with have done a good job recently for Scottish independence, it's not just it's supporters doing the convincing My point was, obsessing over the Snp shouldn't dominate a broad discussion. The ineptitude and death of Labour in Scotland has had an enormous effect on the independence debate. Its current absolutely disastrous state, Uk wide, means that there is no effective opposition, this gifts the Snp the even further ground its gained in polls post Brexit. As I noted in the earlier post, the media demolition of the Labour Party/Corbyn following the vote was obviously some sort of effort to distract attention from the utter omnishambles the Conservatives had created for themselves. The problem though was on the one hand this had deflected attention from their internal troubles and took down the opposition, on the other, it painted the Snp as the sanest, most prepared of the bunch Regarding the Snp's legitimacy at holding another referendum, I guess we must remember they were elected with it in the manifesto under the 'material change' scenario, I remember long term Snp critic, Conservative voter and writer for the right leaning Spectator Alex Massie noted as much in his initial post Brexit summary a few weeks back http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-beginning-end-britain/ Regarding GERS. 17m people voted to side with leaders that opined "we've had enough of experts" and against the advice of pretty much every credible economist you can think of. Numbers and figures evidently don't scare people now, look at what Cameron and Osbourne threw at us before Brexit. An independent Scotland is uncertain and wouldn't be easy, likewise for Brexit. Take your pick GERS is a terrible yearly political football anyway. When the oil prices are high, the Snp are singing about it, when they're low, they're dismissing the report. Evidently GERS is highly contentious at best, it's conception was designed to undermine the case for devolution was it not? or as the then Conservative Scottish secretary Ian Lang said "This is an initiative which will allow us to score against all of our political opponents." It's cynical to the max, just like the Snp releasing their Brexit figures beforehand is. It's all politicking If I had to note something interesting in the figures it would be that the media have, as always, focused on Oil (much like the Snp have over the years) but non-Oil revenues are up 1.9billion.... that's greater than the 1.8billion decrease in oil revenues. So oil revenues have tanked to almost nothing, yet onshore revenues have grown to cancel it out and marginally narrow the deficit. Surely Oil is a bonus then and the Scottish economy should not be defined by this finite commodity, we're resource rich in other areas, where investment plans should be discussed fully and openly but the battle lines were drawn over the oil issue years ago and we've had to suffer this tedious obsession over percentages every time GERS roll out, it's pretty dire and predictable from both sides really and certainly shouldn't merit the media traction it receives. Especially given we don't yet know how 'Brexit means Brexit' is going to impact us yet
  4. Thanks IBM, not looking to antagonise anyone, I just enjoy the discourse. Plenty to discuss post Brexit, but as I mentioned, we're in a bit of a limbo just now so there's a lot of conjecture to wade through
  5. Hi Charles People are free to express their opinions, sadly some people feel that this only extends to opinions that they like. I've read a fair bit about the Cybernats issue recently. The word was coined by Better Together's "twitter squad" as a derogatory term designed to add negative connotations to the Yes voters en masse. I applaud it's Machiavellian conception. The result though was that legitimate, polite, reasoned voices are often tarred with the same brush and in effect many people can be labelled a "Cybernat" even though their actions merit no such label. So the term itself can be a tool of suppression too. The same happens with people who support the union, many sensible, decent discussions are framed or tainted in a negative manor just because some idiot or group of idiots have decided to join in. The moral is, there are idiots on both sides, no one holds any moral superiority here Given that the Snp didn't want another referendum soon and that a second referendum loss would virtually finish them, I'm surprised that some of the people on here aren't singing for one!? As I said, I doubt they'd call one unless they are guaranteed they'd win. This would surely only come if they could ensure a continuation of the EU membership. It would be something I would vote for if all else had failed before it. I didn't vote in 2014 to suspend my ability to adapt. Given the fluidity of events which have been brought upon us by the EU vote, I see it as key to have a broad perspective and an open mind. Regardless of how it's painted, it's a more insular outlook our friends in the south appear to have endorsed
  6. Hi Speaking as someone who has never voted Snp, it's still hard to miss what is a rather severe obsession with them on here and it somewhat constricts what is an enormous, wide ranging debate to a much more confined one. The Snp don't have ownership over the independence debate, much as they may wish they did. Yet charging them with 'grievance politics' but then basing nearly every argument from a starting point of deep rooted grievance against them could be deemed contradictory, but at best it creates a rather dizzying cycle of repetitive commentary. Some people have expressed dismay at the polarising or divisive nature of the constitutional debate in this country yet they appear as far away from any reconciliatory rhetoric or an olive branch as they possibly could be I couldn't quite bring myself to vote Yes for Independence in 2014, I considered it and many of my friends/colleagues voted that way. I was by no means blind to some of it's appeal but the status quo and the sense that I didn't want the boat to be rocked were clear enough in my mind. I don't regret it, given what I knew then What I know now, post Brexit, is hugely different, as are my views on the constitutional discussion and thus another referendum. It's no longer possible (for me) to apply the 2014 stance like for like to the current scenario, such is the dramatic difference to the mechanics of the whole debate. Nicholas Macpherson, the senior civil servant behind Better Together's treasury plans along with Osbourne noted as much in his ft article. Though JK Rowling wins the prize for most surprising concession that Brexit has changed opinion Brexit came around thanks to the wishes alone of the Conservative's right wing, their splintered right wing (Ukip) and the billionaire media moguls who backed what was a quite dispicible campaign laced with proto-fascist undertones. For many, it was a proxy-vote on English independence, I lost count of how many vox pops I saw with people saying "I want to give England back to the English". Although many of the historical economic failures within communities which voted heavily for Leave may have been down to the neglect of their local industries by repeated governments, it was the immigration blame game card which won the day, reaffirmed by years of hysterical coverage by the press While the government which placed us on a road to economic peril was in disarray, the media circus instead focused not on accountability but on dismantling the opposition. I cared not for the state of Corbyn and his party, I cared for a plan, which no one apparently had Given the lack of any sense of control I welcomed the cross-party mandate given to Nicola Sturgeon from Holyrood. If there can be a way in which Scotland can remain in both unions (Uk and Eu) the 'reverse Greenland' scenario, then I endorse it, but given how complex this set-up may be I doubt if it's achievable, as each party that backs the exploratory mandate will be well aware Some of the sounds coming out of members from Scottish Labour and the Lib dem's is that their independence stance may be revised down the line. Both know that the new Westminster government is now the most right wing in history and along with the prospect that membership of the signal market is not guaranteed without free movement (the main vote winner for leave) it would be more than a tough sell to the scottish electorate in future elections. Add in the ridiculous Boris Johnson as the paragon for the new Uk on the world scene and that sale becomes even more difficult Polling appears cautious on independence after Brexit, though the Yes vote had increased across the polls. The key thing to remember though is that this is current polling. Article 50 has yet to be invoked and the economy has been 'shi**ing it' at just the prospect of that act The Snp will only fancy another referendum if certain things are in place. If they can secure a guarantee from Europe that membership will be continued following a Yes vote, they'll go for it I'm sure. Indications so far have been positive looking broadly at the signals coming from Europe but given most people don't know what the make-up of Brexit will be, we're in a bit of a limbo at present I applauded Ruth Davidson's attitude and performance on the eve of the Brexit vote but she went from brilliant defender of remain and the European ideal to 'Brexit is what's best now' in what felt like a heartbeat. Passing the buck to the Snp for 'creating instability' by not ruling out another referendum is hilarious from many conservatives, we all know where all this instability has come from and if the Union does split Brexit will have been the catalyst. It's implications are staggering Some on here are embarrassed by the fact our parliamentarians have voted to try and preserve our european status, I'm not. I know numerous people with partners who are eu citizens and both are very, very concerned at what the future holds for them and their family. What I'm embarrassed by is what the vote says about the Uk's attitude towards others and indeed the hate crime figures that now evidence more than a sense of concern It's a sorry state of affairs on all levels and as much as I'm currently enjoying and supporting team GB during this Olympics to the hilt, sadly no amount of flag waving or gold medals are going to ensure my child has the same opportunities it had before the Ukipers gained ownership of Uk's future
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