Jump to content
FACEBOOK LOGIN ×

hislopsoffsideagain

03: Full Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    921

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by hislopsoffsideagain

  1. hislopsoffsideagain
    So yeah, this tweet about Rangers' finances got some serious traffic and clogged up my mentions for a couple of days.



    Is it worth noting that not one of however many hundred people who saw that tweet noticed the mistake? Apparently I'm not the only one who can't count to seven...

    The numbers there though. Ooft.

    You don't have to be an accountant - and I'm not - to know that companies don't publish accounts late on a Friday evening if they want attention drawn to them. Though last year Rangers published their accounts on a Wednesday evening during a Rangers match, so I suppose this is a step up from that.

    It seems like the distraction has largely worked. Dave King appeared to be channelling the Iraqi Information Minister when he claimed "the financial year under review was again a positive one" but this line appears to have been swallowed by the Scottish media like a piece of, say, succulent lamb? The only piece of criticism I've seen was on Forbes.com. I don't think too many Scottish football fans check that out. (Of course, if you were cruel you could say the same about this site!)

    Anyroad, my mentions were filled with fans of other clubs claiming imminent liquidation, criticising the SFA for letting this happen, and suggesting that  UEFA's Financial Fair Play rules were being broken. There was also one apparently genuine Rangers fan who seemed to think Dave King is the Messiah.

    People of a certain vintage might remember an Only An Excuse sketch from when Livingston went into administration all those years ago, where a reporter was asked to explain the circumstances in layman's terms and described it as a "help ma boab situation".

    So is it Help Ma Boab time down Govan way? Let's see.


    Turnover is up
    This is the big positive. Not only did income increase, but it shot up dramatically by 63% to £53.2m. The main reason for this is the club's run to the Europa League group stages; income from European competition totalled £14.1m.


    So is the wage bill, but that's probably okay
    First team wages have more than doubled in two years, up to £23m. Overall staff costs are £34.4m which is still well behind Celtic (£56.6m) but is four times that of Aberdeen. That sounds like a huge figure but the wages-to-turnover ratio is 64.6% which is pretty acceptable.


    Those legal fees
    I initally misread this figure as £3.6m and thought "how on earth do you spend £3.6m on lawyers?" By picking a fight with Mike Ashley, that's how.  But in fact its a £3.6m increase in legal fees, so the amount is actually higher than that. Crumbs. The bloke at Forbes says the full figure is £9m but that sounds insane and I couldn't find that in the accounts. The saga of Rangers' kit deal with Hummel ain't over yet and seems likely to cost the club a decent seven-figure sum when it is finally concluded.


    What debts are there?
    "As at 30 June 2019, there are interest-free, unsecured loans with investors amounting to £10.3 million, other commercial loans of £3.0m, whilst the Group also has finance lease agreements totalling £1.2 million".

    This is hard for an amateur like me to decipher. What we do know is that Rangers have got by for years on soft loans from directors which have then been converted to equity further down the line. From what I can tell - and I may be talking out of my arse - it seems like all the soft loans from directors have been converted to equity since June 2019 via a share issue. The flipside is that they also state that there have been another £9.7m of investor loans in the last few months.

    This shares to equity thing has been ongoing throughout the King era. How long can they keep repeating it?

    Meanwhile we know a loan was taken out with financial house Close Brothers in February 2019; this is likely to be the aforementioned 'commerical loan'. The £200,000 of interest payments up till June are presumably related to that loan, which would suggest a pretty high interest rate. This is the problem with not being able to get a loan from a bank.


    A ten million quid hole
    If the Turnover part is the big positive for Rangers fans, then this is the overwhelming negative.

    "At the time of preparation, the forecast identified that the Group would require £10.0m by way of debt or equity funding by the end of season 2019/2020 in order to meet its liabilities as they fall due. The first tranche of funding is required from investors in November 2019".

    Ten million quid.

    For what its worth, in the last few seasons the accounts have also stated extra funding would be required - I believe it was £4.6m in last year's, and £3m the year before.

    Ten million quid.

    And that will be despite the expected income from Rangers' 2019/20 campaign, which includes another qualification for the Europa League and another £14m+ from that.

    One of King's family trusts, Laird Investments, is apparently going to cover the shortfall. Given that during the Takeover Panel saga King described himself as "penniless" because of a lack of control over family trusts, this is worth a raised eyebrow. That said, another one of his family trusts, NOAL, has converted £8.4m of loans into equity in the recent past so perhaps he is putting his money where his mouth is?


    Financial Fair Play
    Are Rangers breaking UEFA's FFP rules? The honest answer is "buggered if I know". The received wisdom is that losses of more than 30million Euros over three years are grounds for sanction, and they would be over that limit. However the FFP regulations are a nightmare to understand, which makes me suspect there are loopholes relating to the amount of money spent on infrastructure etc. With European football so critical to the business plan I find it impossible to believe that the club haven't thought of this.


    Looking ahead
    It feels like Rangers took a huge - even reckless - gamble on progress in Europe last season and this. Lord knows where failure would have left them. But lo and behold Stevie G managed to navigate about a million qualifying rounds and got Rangers access to the Europa League pot of gold.

    The thing is that they've had to take the same gamble again this year. And again they've reached the Europa League. Yet despite that they're still £10m short. Presumably that's because of the £11.5m spent on the likes of Ryan Kent and Filip Helander.

    Moreover, the turnover figure for 2019/20 is unlikely to be particularly higher than 2018/19 - why would it be? And yet with transfer fees and probably another hike in the wage bill, losses will be higher, unless they sell off prize assets like Alfredo Morelos. And that's before the whole Mike Ashley/Hummel stuff.

    So the fear is that the board are taking an even bigger and potentially dangerous punt - on Gerrard delivering the title and access to the untold riches of the Champions League. Pulling that off would solve any financial issues at a single stroke.

    And if they fail? There are plenty out there who would love to see an administration event, But whilst the Big Hoose of cards looks pretty fragile it has done so for several years without actually collapsing. Rangers still look like a financial basket case. But people keep putting money into the basket.


    And one other thing...


    Eros Grezda, I assume?



    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  2. hislopsoffsideagain
    Scotland's Euro 2020 campaign was pretty much a disaster. The only thing good about it is that it's over now.


    It's now twenty-two years - nearly two-thirds of my life - since Scotland made it to a major tournament. That's eleven qualifying campaigns we've failed in.
    But was the most recent debacle the worst of the lot?
    My own football awakening was in 1991, aged seven. I'm not old enough to remember Italia '90, but I am old enough to remember what came after it. So let's rank, and reminisce about, the last fifteen Scotland qualification campaigns from Euro 92 to the present.
    This brings back some fond memories. And some not so fond ones...
    Start
    View the full article
  3. hislopsoffsideagain
    Aside from a game between Morton and Queen of the South that needs rescheduled, the Scottish Championship has reached its halfway point. Eighteen games down, eighteen to go.

    It would be a stretch to say there is a title race.



    Thirteen points clear with eighteen games left? Surely Dundee United can't blow this.

    United haven't been perfect (their three defeats include a loss to Alloa and a 4-0 trouncing in Dumfries) but they have been close enough. At the time of writing they've won nine straight. Obviously having Lawrence Shankland helps - he has nineteen league goals already and has broken into the Scotland setup - but this United team is miles ahead in every area compared to the ones that have stunk up this division for the last three years. Once they get in front they have enough backbone and street smarts to see out games and pick off opponents at will. Aside from Shankland, Mark Reynolds and Calum Butcher have been particularly outstanding.

    Therefore the teams immediately below are realistically battling for the three playoff spots; getting second place and a 'bye week' could make a significant difference to a club's chances of promotion via this route.

    It's Caley Thistle who currently have a little bit of breathing space here. Not that they have been overly impressive - three teams have scored more and three have conceded fewer - but they've been a little less inconsistent than the rest.

    Crucially their last three home games have been victories against the three clubs immediately below them in the table, and with clean sheets to boot. That suggests that the backline is returning to form after a shaky autumn. Their problem remains a lack of goals. They've scored more than two in a game only once and no individual has managed more than four in the league. Finding a reliable forward would cement that second spot. Certainly you would fancy them to reach the playoffs again though.

    Next up are Ayr United who started like greased lightning with six wins out of seven but have hit the skids dreadfully since Ian McCall upped and left for Partick Thistle. His rookie replacement Mark Kerr hasn't been helped by a small squad incapacitated by injuries but its remarkable they are currently third given they've won just one of the last six.

    Unless they can reinforce considerably in January they are unlikely to stay there, especially as Kerr himself intends to hang up his boots next month. With other veterans such as Michael Moffat, Steven Bell and Andy Geggan looking past their best it could be tough going forward.

    In contrast Dundee will feel they are in the ascendancy now - and about time too, given this team can boast Kane Hemmings and Danny Johnson up front and Graham Dorrans in midfield. If one was being generous it could be said that manager James McPake had to gel together several new players, but the bottom line is that the Dark Blues are performing remarkably like their neighbours in the last few years - playing down to the opposition, often relying on talent rather than tactics to do the business.

    Still, they've won their last two and got into the top four. Their next three matches are against the trio currently above them, starting with the Boxing Day derby. A positive result at Tannadice would do wonders for confidence, not least because the two derby defeats so far have wrecked confidence for weeks afterward. The bottom line though is that anything other than a top four finish would be an embarrassment.

    Dunfermline have dropped back to fifth after a recent purple patch had put them into the top four. But they'll take that given Stevie Crawford looked under a fair bit of pressure when they won only one of their first eight league games.

    The turnaround has been mostly down to the outrageous form of striker Kevin Nisbet, who before last weekend's loss in Inverness had scored twelve in seven league games. If he can keep finding the net and the Pars can get the best out of midfield loan trio Greg Kiltie, Harry Cochrane and Anthony McDonald then they will be playoff-bound.

    I was actually surprised when I looked at the table to find Queen of the South up in sixth. Whilst they've had some impressive wins (such as the aforementioned drubbing of the league leaders) they've only won back-to-back games once. Has Stephen Dobbie begun to fade at last? The 37 year old has only five league goals so far this season. However the club have just given him another new contract and his acumen still looks plenty sharp for this level.

    The Doonhamers are another team who have a relatively small squad that struggles to deal with any injuries. An optimist would say they are still in the playoff race but they are closer to ninth than fourth and an injury to Dobbie would cripple them.

    I was also taken aback to see Arbroath down in seventh. Only six weeks ago they were in a playoff spot after crushing ICT at home but that might have been their ceiling. Since then they are winless. That shouldn't distract from the remarkable job Dick Campbell and co have done this season with a squad of gnarly part-time veterans from the lower divisions. They have gone toe-to-toe with everyone.

    And yet they could still be pulled into a relegation battle. There's always a risk that the semi-pros will run out of batteries towards the end of a long season. But these guys have been around the block often enough to deserve the benefit of the doubt.

    Just above the bottom two are Morton who will have probably had higher expectations than this when they appointed David Hopkin as manager. Perhaps its true he wasn't the brains of the operation at Livingston? Morton's home form is the reason they are this high; only last weekend did they pick up their first away league win.

    There's plenty of experience in Greenock with Jim McAlister, Chris Millar, Brian McLean and John Sutton amongst those playing significant roles. But few of the youngsters have pushed on and their two most prestigious summer signings, Aidan Nesbitt and Robbie Muirhead, have struggled. They need top scorer Bob McHugh to bounce back from a hamstring injury asap.

    Whatever former boss Gary Caldwell claims about putting together a squad capable of promotion, pre-contract moves for Ayr's Ross Docherty and QOS's Darren Brownlie tell you that Partick Thistle have no aspirations for this season beyond getting the hell out of the basement and retaining their Championship status.

    Sixteen points from twelve games under McCall is certainly progress but expect Thistle to be very busy in January strengthening the squad and trying to move on some of Caldwell's duds.

    And finally we have Alloa. Staying up last season was a minor miracle for the Wasps but repeating the feat will be very tough. Peter Grant has done a solid job succeeding Jim Goodwin in charge and they've not been pushovers by any means. But four straight defeats has seen them plunge to the bottom.

    Grant was quite prudent in the summer and it will be interesting to see if there is much squad turnover in January. Certainly if Alloa are going to survive they need to bring in new players, though they will remain tough opponents regardless.

    So here are my predictions for how it'll finish...and how confident I am about said predictions:

    PROMOTED
    Dundee United (would bet my mortgage on it)

    PROMOTION PLAYOFFS
    Inverness CT (very confident)
    Dundee (very confident)
    Dunfermline (wouldn't put money on it)

    RELEGATION PLAYOFFS
    Morton (not confident at all - could see Arbroath, QOS, Partick all ending up here)

    RELEGATED
    Alloa (pretty confident but they've proven us wrong before!)


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
    View the full article
  4. hislopsoffsideagain
    Outgoing Aberdeen chairman Stewart Milne gave an interview a few weeks ago where he criticized the refusal of Rangers and Celtic to allow change in Scottish football. It was almost as ridiculous as the toupee he sported at the start of his 21 year reign at Pittodrie.

    Many, including former St. Mirren chairman Stewart Gilmour, were more than willing to lay into Milne for his hypocrisy and his apparent attempts to rewrite history. It's no secret that other Premiership clubs were willing to use Rangers' absence from the top flight to rewrite voting rules that meant an 11-1 majority was required for significant change, which in turn allowed Rangers and Celtic to veto things they did not favour. Aberdeen, vainly believing they could take over as Scotland's second force, derailed this for their own perceived advantage. They enter the 2019-20 winter break back in fourth place.

    However Milne's comments lay plain the fact that at the start of 2020 Scottish football is once more in thrall to the blue and green cheeks of the Glasgow arse. Currently the gap between second and third is thirteen points (and the top two have games in hand). At the end of the 2010-11 season it was twenty-nine.

    So are we basically just back where we started?


    Some might argue that the 2010s was the decade of the diddy team. Dundee United, Hearts, St. Johnstone, Inverness Caledonian Thistle and Hibernian - Hibernian, who seemed cursed to never win the competition again! - won the Scottish Cup in the last decade. Kilmarnock, St. Mirren, Aberdeen and Ross County all lifted the League Cup in the same period.

    The liquidation of Rangers in the summer of 2012 was in some ways the defining moment of the last ten years in Scottish football. Off the pitch, it doomed us all to an apparent eternity of tedious 'newco'/'Sevco'/'there is no Old Firm' arguments. On the pitch, Rangers' rise from League Two provided some welcome publicity and cash to lower league clubs and plenty of amusing moments for non-Bluenoses as the Gers made rather heavy weather of their rise up the leagues despite having the second highest wage bill in the country even when they were in the fourth tier.

    It also meant that in the top flight there was no real competition for Celtic for many years. Only two of their eight consecutive titles has been won by less than fifteen points; even those two, the last two, were won by nine.

    But in knockout competitions the door was flung wide open. The aforementioned trophy winners and their supporters were galvanized by their sudden ascendance into relevance. It rather helped that Celtic spent two years under incompetent Norwegian coach Ronny Deila; whilst their vastly superior squad depth ensured glory in the league they proved remarkably vulnerable in cup matches.

    Alas, this period was all too brief. Hibernian were the last club other than Celtic to win a cup (no, the Petrofac Training Cup doesn't count), in the summer of 2016. Since then the Bhoys have swept the board with a 'treble treble'. The combination of overwhelming financial muscle and an extremely talented coach in Brendan Rodgers made them literally unbeatable in 2016-17. Having Rodgers in the country did bring in some kudos but his extraordinary success once more left the league open to accusations of being a procession.

    Rangers were finally promoted to the Premiership in 2016, but took two further years to get themselves sorted out properly. Now under Steven Gerrard they look like Celtic's equals and could well win the title this season.

    The SPFL frequently trumpets rises in attendances, but these are mainly because of the large visiting supports the two Glasgow clubs bring. In fact many sides have noticed a reduction in the size of the home supports at these matches. The experience of hosting either club, with the dreadful, hateful songs and the strong likelihood of a heavy beating, is not a pleasant one. Fighting for a distant third place, whilst pretty much writing off three or four home matches per season, is no healthier a position than it was in the past.

    Thus Scottish football remains locked in the mindset that a strong, wealthy Rangers and Celtic, with cash trickling down to the other clubs, is the way to go.

    One thing that is different is the lack of relevance even the strongest Scottish clubs have on the European stage. Only twice in the last six years have Celtic made it to the Champions League and that ratio is unlikely to improve now that the path through qualifying has become harder. The Europa League, a distraction in the days of Deila, is now a major focus.

    Financially, it does seem as if the Champions end up selling a star player each year they don't make it to the Champions League. Rangers have spunked tens of millions away in the last seven years and still run a seven figure loss annually. This blogger's biggest concern is that other full-time clubs seem to be struggling to run within their means as well, especially the ones in the Championship. Whilst a repeat of the administration plague that hit Scottish football in the noughties is hardly imminent it is hard to see how as many 20 full-time clubs can be supported in the long term. It could be argued that none of them can break even without either significant success on the pitch or selling their best players.


    At international level the lone bright spot has been the breakthrough of Scotland's Women's team who not only qualified for a European Championship and World Cup but captured the hearts of many by doing so.

    As regards the men there has been precious little to crow about. The fact that the greatest moment of the decade for the Scotland mens' team was a Leigh Griffiths goal against England which ultimately didn't even win the match sums things up nicely.

    Even at the best of times we have no right to expect qualification for the World Cup. But a twenty-four team European Championship? Wales, Northern Ireland, Iceland and Albania got to Euro 2016. Scotland did not.

    The same old SFA failings played a major part. After gross underachievement in the Euro 2012 qualifiers - 4-6-0, indeed - Craig Levein was kept on long enough to ruin our 2014 World Cup hopes. Gordon Strachan wasn't the worst appointment, though it showed an unwillingness to think outside the box. And when, after he was let go, the powers that be tried the outside-the-box thinking they be the farm on Michael O'Neill, only to find that Northern Ireland now had a bigger farm.

    The humilation forced the resignation of Chief Executive Stewart Regan and in the aftermath the organization went back to what it knows best - jobs for the boys. Hence the fourteen month fiasco that was Alex McLeish's second spell. Never has the morale of the Tartan Army been so low.

    Going into 2020, the national team feels like it is at a Sliding Doors moment. The Nations League has given us an extra shot at Euro 2020 qualification which depends on beating Israel at home and Norway or Serbia away. Pull it off and he and his side will be heroes. Blow it, missing out on a tournament which includes matches at Hampden itself, and that might finally be it for many fans.

    As for the youngsters, you tell me what's happening there. Mark Wotte was appointed as the first Performance Director in 2011 and was later succeeded by Brian McClair and then the rather controversial Malky Mackay. It seems to me that there have been plenty of decent results by Scottish youth teams in the 2010s but that will matter to no-one if senior results don't improve.


    All in all it feels like the 2010s produced plenty of opportunities both domestically and internationally that have been squandered in favour of the apparently safe status quo. It is often said that one has to run to stand still. Scottish football continues to stand still and wonder why the rest of the world is rushing off into the distance.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  5. hislopsoffsideagain
    The reaction to St. Johnstone's decision to give three McDiarmid Park stands to Rangers and Celtic fans was somewhat mixed.

    There was, for example, this piece from the Daily Record's Michael Gannon claiming that they were trying to 'make a quick buck' by exploiting the biggest supports in the country - because giving said supports more tickets is, apparently, 'exploitation'.

    Especially when said tickets are £28 a pop. Sure, we'd all like to pay less for football tickets, but criticizing the price is rich given it costs only a quid less for away supporters at Celtic Park to watch from the infamous 'restricted view' seats that, in addition to watching their team getting pumped, give the spectator the treasured bonus of an acute case of torticollis.

    However, plenty were pragmatic about it. Whilst few actually believed the Perth Saints' claim that temporarily shifting some fans so the home support was amalgamated in one area would help provide a 'partisan atmosphere' - there's no way that was written with a straight face - we're not talking small change here. Gannon claimed St. Johnstone would "trouser a couple of hundred grand which might fund a couple of players".

    A couple of hundred grand would equate to about 5% of St. Johnstone's annual turnover. It's more likely to pay for four players than for two. It might be loose change for Scotland's largest two clubs, but it is a significant amount of money for a club of their size...and for at least half the clubs in the Scottish Premiership.

    Gannon bizarrely suggested away fans should boycott Perth in protest. He did also briefly mention one of the reasons why St. Johnstone can, and need to, take this step - the fact that season ticket holders are dodging these matches.

    Those are generally the most loyal supporters, and ones who have actually paid for their seats already. And yet they are eschewing the chance to watch the biggest and most talented clubs in the country take on their own side.

    Imagine season ticket holders at Bournemouth and Watford deciding to skip the visit of Liverpool or Manchester City, or Getafe fans staying at home when Barcelona come to town. I attended a Middlesbrough-Manchester United match in 2008 where the visiting support took great joy in proclaiming "you're only here for United!" loudly. It was true too; my mate spent the whole game salivating over Paul Scholes and I over Wayne Rooney.

    But St. Johnstone's fans are not the only ones turned off by the Gruesome Twosome. Other clubs have also noted their season ticket holders staying away in similar circumstances.

    There are a few different factors at play here. One is that these games tend to have awkward kickoff times. Another is that no-one ever enjoys seeing their team get gubbed. After a few years where both Celtic and Rangers looked like potential scalps when you got them on your own patch, we've rewound to the days when, for example, Stephane Guivarc'h scored two in an 8-0 win for Dick Advocaat's Rangers...in Perth.

    But that was never quite enough to keep folk away. Perhaps the star power of Brian Laudrup, Henrik Larsson etc. was worth the ignominy. Alfredo Morelos and Odsonne Edouard are talents but hardly in the same stratosphere.

    And then of course there is the whole experience of having Rangers and Celtic fans in town.

    Sure, they aren't the only ones to sing unpleasant songs, to invade the pitch, to set off flares, to throw objects, to damage the stadium.

    But it only feels inevitable when it's one of those supports.

    At Inverness (a place that neither club are likely to be visiting again in the near future) I've seen fans of both clubs drinking in the streets - Strongbow for Celtic fans, Buckfast for Rangers fans - urinating outside the ground (as if they don't think indoor plumbing has reached the Highlands yet) and have endured loud aggressive chants about killing people which have no relation to the actual match or opponent.

    It is not a lot of fun.

    So we've now reached a strange denouement where fans of other Scottish clubs are turned off by Rangers and Celtic, and yet the big two and the SPFL will cite the impressive viewing figures for their derby clash at the end of December as further evidence that, outside Scotland at least, they're the only clubs that matter.

    Which is fair enough until they complain that no-one else wants to watch them...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly

    View the full article
  6. hislopsoffsideagain
    Okay, so in terms of finances the headline is just an eensy weensy bit OTT. Inverness Caley Thistle should have enough cash to get through the season. And given that a club of the size of Queen of the South can still manage to stay full-time there's not really any likelihood of ICT having to go part-time in the near future.

    Still, they have suffered losses of £2m in the last three years - £400,000 in the 2016/17 relegation campaign and £800,000 in each of the last two seasons. That's really quite a lot of money.

    Worse, last season's figures did not improve despite a run to the Scottish Cup semi-finals, a league finish two places higher than in 2017/18 and a few high earners being moved on.

    Hence an EGM in September which was essentially a (successful) plea for directors and local businessmen and allies of the club to stump up some cash to cover any shortfall for the rest of the current campaign.

    On the pitch things are at least a bit rosier. ICT lie second in the Championship. The title and automatic promotion are now out of reach; Dundee United are approximately a gazillion points clear and would still win the division if they put Csaba Laszlo back in charge for the remaining matches. However the Highlanders have a juicy ten point cushion over fifth place and are in pole position to get the bye week for the promotion playoffs whilst the third- and fourth-placed sides joust. That in itself would improve their chances of going up.

    But now it's January, so clubs are sniffing around players whose contracts expire in the summer. As one of the Championship's better sides, it's no surprise that there is interest in Caley Thistle's players. And with the chances of going up still not especially high - four out of six playoff finals have been won by the Premiership side - it's also no surprise that the players are interested in moves to Premiership clubs.

    Central defender Coll Donaldson, a Dundee United dud rebuilt in Inverness, has talked to Ross County. St. Johnstone have been linked with his fellow defenders Jamie McCart and Shaun Rooney. McCart is still only 22 and has impressed since joining from Celtic. Rooney had underwhelmed at Queen of the South before signing but has improved exponentially over the last year into a powerful, athletic attacking right-back.

    According to reports, at least two more players have suitors. One is almost certainly winger Tom Walsh, whose season has been interrupted by hamstring problems but who is outstanding at getting half a yard on his man and whipping in a cross with either foot. The other may be Jordan White, the archetypal Big Man Up Front. He is apparently wanted by Motherwell, though I have no idea why.

    That's essentially half a team that are very likely to leave in the summer...or sooner than that. Inverness signed Falkirk defender Lewis Toshney last week in a move that could well be covering Donaldson joining County during this window.

    That's not to say the players left behind are all hopeless. Sean Welsh is one of the best midfielders in the league but is also made of glass. James Keatings is a good attacker for this level. Mark Ridgers offers a reliable pair of hands between the sticks.

    But rebuilding this team, and almost certainly with an even tighter budget, would be some undertaking. As Falkirk have recently shown, a big turnover of players can go spectacularly wrong.

    It is quite remarkable that, three years into their current stay in the Championship, Caley Thistle have their best chance to get out of it. If they can't take it, it would be even more remarkable if another one came around any time soon.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly

    View the full article
  7. hislopsoffsideagain
    To be fair, Aberdeen fans probably aren't alone in suffering from a kind of collective footballing dementia.

    On the one hand, their long-term memory is generally outstanding, especially when it comes to the 1980s and the word "Gothenburg" is mentioned. More Aberdonians claim to have been there than hippies at Woodstock.

    And you can hardly blame them for suppressing any recollection of the early part of the 21st century, the era of managers such as Ebbe Skovdahl, Steve Paterson, Jimmy Calderwood and Mark McGhee, of forwards like Leon Mike, Laurent D'Jaffo, Leigh Hinds, Bryan Prunty, David Zdrilic...I've only got as far as 2004 and already any Dons fans reading this have retreated to the corner of the room and curled up into a ball, whimpering softly.

    But when it comes to Derek McInnes, there's a definite feel of "what did he ever do for us?" going around right now. Well, apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, he managed:


    four consecutive second place finishes (the last time they had previously finished second was in 1993-94) six consecutive top four finishes (they had finished in the top four six times in the previous seventeen seasons before Deek arrived) a League Cup win (their first trophy for nineteen years) two other League Cup finals and a Scottish Cup final (they had made it to four finals in the previous twenty years) But that was then and this is now. And now Aberdeen go to Hamilton tonight on the back of a five match goalless streak. Their only goal in 2020 so far is a penalty...at home to League One Dumbarton. They are fourth in the league, only three points behind third placed Motherwell, but are eight points worse off than they were at this point of last season.
    You know it's bad when it comes to this: 

    That is the sort of guff that a manager starts saying when they are feeling the pressure.

    The truth is that Aberdeen look so stale that one expects to find a turquoise mould beginning to blossom on Andrew Considine's scalp.

    Perhaps there's an inevitability about that. McInnes is the second longest serving manager in the SPFL, just six weeks shy of seven years at Pittodrie. For comparison, Tommy Wright is the only Premiership manager who has been in his current post for more than three.

    And a few years ago the team hit a ceiling that was constructed out of shatterproof glass. 

    The pinnacle was probably the 2017 Scottish Cup Final, where they scored first and went toe-to-toe with Brendan Rodgers' invincibles until Tom Rogic's injury time winner. The lineup that day? Lewis, Logan, Taylor, Reynolds, Considine, Shinnie, Jack, McLean, McGinn, Hayes, Stockley. Ryan Christie was ineligible to play against his parent club. Before he arrived in January, they had got half a season of James Maddison on loan.

    Two and a half years on, five of that starting eleven remain. Shay Logan, Andrew Considine and Niall McGinn are all the wrong side of thirty and trending downward, while Ash Taylor, who returned to the North-East last summer has been a shadow of the player who left the club after that match. That leaves only keeper Joe Lewis playing at anywhere near the same level.

    And just look at the quality of the players who have gone, particularly that midfield. Five years ago I'd have happily bet that playing for Aberdeen would have been the career pinnacle for Kenny McLean (now in the Premier League), Graeme Shinnie (in the English Championship), Ryan Jack (bossing it for Rangers) and Jonny Hayes (signed by Celtic for £1.5million). Hell, Jayden Stockley's career trajectory since moving on makes his failure to impress a bit of a weird one.

    The rebuild has been tough, and its hard to know whether McInnes captured lightning in a bottle with some of his signings in the first few years, or alternatively he has just been unlucky in the last couple. Again, take the midfield. Craig Bryson, Funso Ojo and Ryan Hedges certainly came with a decent pedigree but none have made a decent impact. Before that, Chris Forrester and Stephen Gleeson proved to be huge misses, but both looked like good purchases.

    Regardless, the remarkable form of striker Sam Cosgrove had papered over a lot of cracks. Now Cosgrove has hit the most spectacular funk in the Granite City since a James Brown-tribute act graced The Lemon Tree, the deficiencies are there for all to see.

    It doesn't help that McInnes has shown little taste for tactical evolution. His obsession with man-to-man marking in open play works when he has superior players but often goes terribly wrong against stronger teams or better coached ones. Not unreasonably he has been criticized for a poor head-to-head record against Rangers and Celtic. It did not go unnoticed amongst the support that the side who pipped the Dons to third last time out were an extraordinarily well-coached David who not only had a habit of beating Goliath but also took great pleasure in shouting "bye-bye, Rangers!" at them.

    To make matters harder still, a new chairman with American business links and an eye on trying to use the new stadium - which seemingly they now won't get into till 2023 - as a platform to push on will surely demand some on-pitch success to generate momentum and encourage investment.

    That at least means that, if it proves that seven years is long enough, a successor will have a far stronger platform to work from than McInnes did in 2013, or any of his predecessors did for a generation before that. But even if his time is up soon, Aberdeen fans should force themselves to remember the nightmare years beforehand, and realize that "we need to move on from Derek McInnes" and "Derek McInnes has been a successful Aberdeen manager" are not mutually exclusive positions.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
    View the full article
  8. hislopsoffsideagain
    So there's only, what, three months of the season left? We're getting to that time where managers are beginning to think of who will be in next season's squad, where some players are either getting their agents to try and get them a move or panicking that they might be unemployed by the end of May.

    Going by the information available, 117 players with first team experience are out of contract in the summer. Let's break them, and their likely fates, down...


    ABERDEEN
    Luc Bollan, Tomas Cerny, Danny Rogers, Frank Ross

    The future of Cerny and Rogers depends largely on what the Dons are looking for in a no. 2 keeper next season. It wouldn't be a surprise if the former, 35 in April, stayed on. Rogers is on his gazillionth loan spell and surely if he had a future in the North East he'd have got a crack by now. Injuries have restricted Ross to just four games in the last season and a half and it would take an enormous show of faith in his potential for him to be given another deal. Youngster Bollan hasn't got anywhere near the first team since arriving last summer from Dundee United.


    CELTIC
    Craig Gordon, Jonny Hayes, Calvin Miller, Stephen Welsh

    It seems like Gordon, 37, is agitating for one last go at first team football given there was talk of him moving on in January. Hayes is now the wrong side of 30 and attempts to convert him into a full-back have not been successful enough to justify keeping him on; it would be no surprise if he joined another Premiership club though. Miller has missed the whole season with a knee injury and Celtic have a habit of giving youngsters contract extensions if only so that they can get a small fee and/or a perecentage of future transfer fees from selling them later; that should mean a new contract for both him and Welsh, who made his debut last month after a 'meh' loan spell at Morton earlier in the season.


    HAMILTON ACCIES
    Steve Davies, Markus Fjortoft, Alex Gogic, Kyle Gourlay, Ronan Hughes, Scott Martin, Aaron McGowan, Mickel Miller, Reegan Mimnaugh, David Moyo, George Oakley, Marios Ogkmpoe, George Stanger, David Templeton, Andy Winter

    A caveat first: Accies are worse than anyone - except maybe Ross County - for keeping contract lengths secret. Why? I have no idea. A few years back the then-club secretary, Scott Struthers, would happily respond to email requests for info, but that was then and this is now. So it's possible that Owain Fon Williams, Johnny Hunt and Blair Alston should be on this list, but in the last few years players whose contract details have not been disclosed have usually been given two year contracts by Hamilton.


    As for those on the list, the first question is 'who might attract a bigger club?' The only two names that jump out there are Alex Gogic and David Templeton. Moreover, with the club's top flight status likely to go down to the wire there are not likely to be many extensions on the horizon for anyone and relegation will obvious affect the budget. Those most likely to move on regardless would be veteran backup striker Davies, youngster Hughes who hasn't fulfilled his potential and third choice keeper Gourlay.


    HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN
    Donis Avdijaj, Daniel Baur, Oliver Bozanic, Jamie Brandon, Rory Currie, Clevid Dikamona, Euan Henderson, Marcel Langer, Cammy Logan, Steven MacLean, Leeroy Makovora, Lewis Moore, Alex Petkov

    Several of these names are youths who have only a handful of first-team minutes. Henderson and Moore have been in the first team frame in recent weeks and so would surely be candidates for new deals. In contrast, injury-prone Levein favourite Brandon may not be so fortunate. 

    Of those more senior, Avdijaj and Langer are only a few weeks into short-term deals so can't really be judged, whilst MacLean is on loan at Raith and so surely won't play for the club again. Bozanic and Dikamona are squad players who the club really should be looking to upgrade on.


    HIBERNIAN
    Adam Bogdan, Vykintas Slivka, Steven Whittaker

    With a list this small, Jack Ross' main concern will be shifting the deadwood that's still under contract. Whittaker wants to keep playing but he's 36 next summer and surely won't get another deal. Bogdan might stay if both he and the club are happy with him being number two keeper. One wonders if Slivka might benefit from a fresh start elsewhere.


    KILMARNOCK
    Harry Bunn, Chris Burke, Gary Dicker, Mohamed El Makrini, Adam Frizzell, Stephen Hendrie, Greg Kiltie, Jan Koprivec, Jamie MacDonald, Devlin Mackay, Rory McKenzie, Ross Millen, Stephen O'Donnell, Iain Wilson

    Of this quite long list, only O'Donnell could realistically leave for a bigger club. He'll be 28 in May and it'll surely be his last big contract. It'll be interesting to see if Killie finally choose to cut loose any of Kiltie, Wilson and Frizzell, all highly-touted youngsters who have failed to make the expected progress. At the other end of the age spectrum Burke is in wonderful shape for 36 but surely doesn't have much left in the tank, while captain Dicker will be 34 in the summer. El Makrini may not have done enough to justify triggering the option on his contract and Jamie MacDonald's Killie career is essentially over.

    However, the club will surely offer McKenzie a new deal and Millen provides relatively cheap depth. Bunn signed a short-term deal in January.


    LIVINGSTON
    Chris Erskine, Jack Hamilton, Craig Henderson, Ricki Lamie, Steven Lawless, Gary Maley, Jack McMillan, Aaron Taylor-Sinclair, Scott Tiffoney

    Lawless has arguably had the season of his career and may be hard for Livi to retain. Lamie, McMillan and Taylor-Sinclair are all first teamers who you would expect to be offered new deals. It's not clear that Tiffoney, Hamilton and Henderson have made enough progress to justify contracts though, while Erskine's top flight days are surely numbered. Remarkably, 37 year old third choice keeper Maley is actually on a part-time deal.


    MOTHERWELL
    Charles Dunne, Rohan Ferguson, Mark Gillespie, Peter Hartley, Christian Ilic, Adam Livingstone, Christopher Long, Barry Maguire, Christy Manzinga, Richard Tait, Tony Watt

    The Steelmen will be particularly desperate to hold onto first choice keeper Gillespie and striker Long, which will not be easy. Veteran Tait has lost his place in the starting lineup this season but it would be a surprise if he doesn't stay around, whilst Hartley has broken back in in the last few months. Its hard to know where Dunne and Ilic stand because of recent injuries, but Stephen Robinson highly rates the latter.

    Of the strikers, Watt has only just arrived but Manzinga has not really shone so far. Youngsters Ferguson, Livingstone and Maguire have not established themselves in the way other youth academy players have in the last few years.


    RANGERS
    Jak Alnwick, Jon Flanagan, Wes Foderingham, Andy Halliday, Jason Holt, Jordan Rossiter, Aidan Wilson

    I wouldn't expect any of these players to remain. Holt, Rossiter and Alnwick have essentially been away on loan for most of the last two seasons. Foderingham wants another crack at being a first choice keeper. It's hard to believe either Flanagan or Halliday is worth keeping around as a backup full-back. Each of Wilson's three loan moves has been one division lower than the previous one, which doesn't bode well for his prospects.


    ROSS COUNTY
    Don Cowie, Richard Foster, Marcus Fraser, Tom Grivosti, Sean Kelly, Tom Kelly, Declan McManus, Callum Morris, Harry Paton, Lewis Spence, James Wallace, Keith Watson

    Like with Accies, I'm a little bit uncertain whether all the names on this list are correct. But unfortunately the club declined to respond to my email asking for information.

    I'd expect Cowie (already a player-coach) and possibly Foster to retire from playing. McManus is seeing out his deal on loan at Falkirk. The rest could all conceivably be offered new deals, but could equally be moved on either because they want to return to the central belt or because County will feel they need to look for upgrades. I'd imagine they would be most keen to keep Fraser, Grivosti, Paton and maybe Spence.


    ST JOHNSTONE
    Steven Anderson, Callum Booth, Ross Callachan, Liam Craig, Murray Davidson, Olly Hamilton, Max Johnstone, Chris Kane, David McMillan, Jordan Northcott, John Robertson, Danny Swanson, Drey Wright

    I think Tommy Wright might spontaneously combust if Booth, Kane and Wright aren't offered new contracts. There's plenty of veterans on this list, with Davidson probably more likely to be kept on than Craig and Swanson. Anderson, Callachan and McMillan are definitely done for, while the youngsters haven't really shown any sign that they can break into the first team so far.


    ST MIRREN
    Tony Andreu, Cameron Breadner, Cody Cooke, Oan Djorkaeff, Ryan Flynn, Scott Glover, Vlaclav Hladky, Gary MacKenzie, Nicholas McAllister, Stephen McGinn, Danny Mullen, Ross Wallace

    St. Mirren will likely hold off offering new deals until they're out the other end of their relegation battle. Hladky will surely be tempted away by one of his many admirers. It's a surprise Djorkaeff is still here as he trained with Queen of the South in January. Veterans Wallace (recently signed till the end of the season) and MacKenzie might well be allowed to leave, whilst Flynn's knee injury couldn't have come at a worse time.

    Club captain McGinn has had his own injury problems recently. Strikers Cooke and Mullen seem to have dropped down the pecking order recently, though Andreu remains a regular. Of the youngsters only Glover has started a first team game.


    and as a bonus...

    DUNDEE UNITED
    Rakish Bingham, Kieran Freeman, Chris Mochrie, Cammy Smith, Oswan Sow, Sam Wardrop, Paul Watson

    Given United are pretty much certain to be promoted, we may as well take a look at their situation. I'm surprised highly-rated kid Mochrie hasn't signed a long term contract yet. Freeman, who recently returned to the club from Southampton's youth setup, is trying to prove he's worth keeping. Are any of the other five worth keeping? I'm not sure. Watson has proved a decent squad option but he's not good enough for the top flight. Bingham is a stopgap short-term signing because Sow is injured. Smith and Wardrop are seeing out their United contracts on loan deals elsewhere.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  9. hislopsoffsideagain
    In case you haven't heard, the Caley Thistle One has been freed.

    To recap: a couple of weeks back, ICT forward James Keatings was shown a second yellow card in the Challenge Cup semi-final against Rangers Colts after referee Greg Aitken felt he had dived. It was a terrible decision; even without the benefit of multiple forensic camera angles, it was clear as day that he had been bumped and knocked over. The resultant suspension would rule him out of the Challenge Cup Final which, for the sake of the narrative, has been temporarily elevated in the minds of Scottish football fans from 'a pointless tournament now that foreign clubs and Colt teams are in it' to 'somewhere between the World Cup and the European Championships' in terms of importance.

    Aitken has form, as Livingston's Steven Lawless, Ayr's Mark Kerr and St Johnstone's Tommy Wright will attest to. This is an official who once booked Alfredo Morelos for diving, deciding there was no contact even though the opposing goalkeeper required treatment for a bleeding face. What can I say? In other civilized countries, people like that aren't allowed to run with scissors. In Scotland, we make them referees.



    No matter though, because the SFA has an appeal system set up to fix these mistakes. Which is fine, until the three person panel inexplicably decides not to do so. I say 'inexplicably' firstly because it actually seemed impossible that it wouldn't be overturned and secondly because the process is about as transparent as a bar of lead. We don't get to find out any of the reasoning at all.

    Until now.

    Kind of.

    Because on Saturday afternoon - which was absolutely definitely positively not an attempt to bury the news by making a statement at a time when fans are usually at football matches - the SFA announced there would be a new appeal.

    The reason? One of the panel members "did not undertake their obligations with respect to consideration of all the available evidence".

    Well, that raises more questions than answers. For a start, given the evidence consists of multiple video clips showing it clearly wasn't a dive, what evidence did said panel member actually examine? Given there was surely nothing to actually support the referee's decision, did the panel member - who does this all by videolink - even look at it at all?

    And the obvious extrapolation from that is to ask: how do we actually know whether in any situation like this the panel members actually do their job?

    Actually I suspect the statement, which came straight from Chief Executive Ian Maxwell, is likely to be somewhat economical with the truth. After all, Keatingsgate (which should be a swanky borough in London populated by Russian oligarchs) had gone viral, aided by a club statement denouncing the SFA which, unusually for Scottish football, managed to get the mix of eloquence, passion and downright evisceration pretty much spot on.


    Once Gary Lineker had retweeted the footage to his 7.5 million Twitter followers, it was clear that the traditional SFA tactic for dealing with bad publicity - hiding in Hampden Park with their fingers stuck in their ears whilst shouting "LA LA LA I'M NOT LISTENING" at the top of their voice until everyone has given up and gone away - wasn't going to work.

    This was a proper omnishambles. Maxwell therefore needed to go full Malcolm Tucker and find a positive fix. This invented technicality did the job nicely. Now justice is done; Keatings gets to play in the Challenge Cup Final, we get an answer to the philosophical question of how many wrongs make a right and the footballing gods can get on with ensuring the player picks up an injury in the next few weeks so that he ironically misses the match anyway.

    And Maxwell will be hoping that all's well that ends well.

    The trouble is that whatever the truth of the Keatings saga it has once more laid bare the appalling lack of governance within the Scottish Football Association. In terms of the actual disciplinary system, seeds of doubt have been irrevocably planted in the process from hereon in.

    Maxwell's worst nightmare is that in the coming weeks someone rather more high profile is involved in a decision that requires a disciplinary panel hearing (I'm trying - and failing - to avoid using 'an Alfredo Morelos dive' as the example) and the outcome is that the player is punished.

    There's no way in hell the 'victim's' club won't be all over this like a rash, questioning the behaviour and integrity of the panel members and demanding proof they have done their jobs. It's certainly not beyond the realms of possibility that legal opinions would be sought. The mild headache caused by Keatings would become a full-blown migraine, but Maxwell wouldn't be able to hide in a dark bedroom for two days to sleep it off.

    And so the SPFL will surely see this as an opportunity. It would be nice to believe that the public support of Motherwell and Hibernian and the private support of others was out of generosity but it is very much in their own interests to take on the SFA. At the very least it can force reform of a disciplinary system which is not fit for purpose. With the organization already under pressure because of the poor performances of the national team - including Maxwell's failure to support Steve Clarke in getting domestic matches moved ahead of the pivotal Euro 2020 playoffs - the old boys network that has led to Rod Petrie becoming the organization's president, and Henry McLeish's criticism of how his review a decade ago has been largely discarded, this could be seen as a chance to discredit the SFA and take more control - even take control - of the direction of the governing body's direction.

    After all, it's not even especially clear what the SFA stands for (apart from Sweet F*** All, hur hur hur). That apparent lack of modus operandi is exactly why Scottish football feels directionless. Because it is.

    I don't think making it work for the benefit of the clubs is good for the game going forward, but it certainly can't be any worse than a status quo which appears to consist of milking the Tartan Army to pay for shiny blazers, big dinners and jaunts abroad.

    Doing the right thing by James Keatings might, ultimately, prove to have been a very wrong move. For closing his case has just opened a great big can of worms.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
    View the full article
  10. hislopsoffsideagain
    On the one hand, it must be noted that these figures are essentially a year old, as they are for the 2018/19 season. There can also be pretty legitimate reasons for clubs either losing money or not making as much as expected, such as investment in infrastructure.

    On the other hand, we now have access to the 2018/19 season accounts for eighteen of Scotland's twenty-two full-time SPFL clubs (assuming no-one is counting Airdrie as full-time yet). We also have an idea of what's to come in two other sets. Of those twenty clubs, just eight turned a profit last season. Most of those eight come with a caveat of sorts as well. The rest were in the red, and in a number of cases spectacularly so.

    That can't be healthy.

    Today let's take a closer look at the twelve clubs that were in the 2018/19 Premiership. If I get round to it, I'll put up a further post looking at the state of play in the lower tiers.


    SOME THOUGHTS FIRST
    There's nothing to suggest that any of these clubs are in imminent financial distress (though as explained in the link further on the situation at Rangers is complicated to say the least). There are two areas of concern that I can see.

    The first is what it takes for clubs to run a profit, full stop. It seems that, if a club finishes in the league position one would expect given their budget, only gets through a round or two in the cups and doesn't sell a player for at least a high six-figure fee - a realistic outcome, basically - they will lose money. I can't see how that is a good thing in the long-term. It also means that clubs are running to stand still, in that they are having to budget higher than they really should just to keep themselves at the level they are at, in the hope that they hit the jackpot in one of the above areas every so often.

    The second is the potential effect of relegation. The experience of recently demoted sides is that turnover falls by about a third on going down. Long-term player contracts are not all that common at all but the biggest Scottish clubs so often a rapid cut in the playing budget is possible, but that in itself is rarely sufficient to deal with such a rapid drop in income. Those clubs struggling to break even as it is would face proper trouble if they ended up in the Championship.

    (addendum - almost at the same time as this blog was published, this story about the potential effect of coronavirus on Scottish football clubs went up. Given the high dependence of gate receipts, I can absolutely believe this would cause significant problems.)

    Onwards...

    IN PROFIT
    CELTIC
    TURNOVER: £83.4m (2017/18: £101.6m)
    PROFIT: £8.7m (2017/18: £17.3m)

    Celtic made a profit of £11m on transfers in 2018/19, which meant they were still profitable despite their turnover taking a big hit from missing out on the Champions League. That's the way of it for them at the moment - either get to the Group Stage or make up the shortfall by selling a player, as they have done again this season with Kieran Tierney. The club also spent a decent amount of cash on infrastructure, such as (shudder) disco lights. With £39m in the bank as of last summer, they are in rude financial health.

    HEARTS
    TURNOVER: £15.1m (2017/18: £12.1m)
    PROFIT: £1.6m (2017/18: £1.8m)

    Hearts' staff costs for last season were £8.2m, which puts them fourth in Scotland. Whilst their profit looks impressive, they received £3.25m in donations and Ann Budge described it as "a challenging year on and off the pitch".


    HIBERNIAN
    TURNOVER: not known yet (2017/18: £9.5m)
    PROFIT: £2m (2017/18: £214k)

    That profit looks juicy for Hibs, who haven't yet published their accounts but had their AGM at the end of February. But it comes off £2.8m of profit in the transfer market thanks to the sale of John McGinn. New owner Ron Gordon said himself that "without the McGinn money, the club would have made a significant loss".

    But Gordon has paid off the club's mortgage and invested a seven figure sum that leaves them with £5.5m in the bank. That looks like a pretty decent platform to build from. He has made it clear that he intends Hibs to be profitable going forward...but they all say that, don't they?


    KILMARNOCK
    TURNOVER: £6.6m (2017/18: £5.1m)
    PROFIT: £126k (2017/18: loss of £180k)

    Given Killie finished third in the table, I expected profits to be higher than this; if they had come fourth, they would have posted a loss. They do seem to have spent a fair bit on infrastructure - not least the laying of a new artificial pitch, and the wages to turnover ratio is fine. Apparently the budget was increased for this season, which means it will be interesting to see what effect a lower league finish and the binning of Angelo Alessio has on finances going forward.


    LIVINGSTON
    TURNOVER: not known yet (2017/18: £1.4m)
    PROFIT: not known yet (2017/18: £46k)

    I'm told by Livingston fans that Chief Executive John Ward has recently said the club made a small profit in 2018/19, but accounts have not been filed yet. Their turnover will have jumped spectacularly after their promotion to the Premiership


    ST MIRREN
    TURNOVER: £4.1m (2017/18: £2.8m)
    PROFIT: £99k (2017/18: £77k)

    It's notable that the Buddies made £1m from 'profit on disposal of player registrations' which in fact is their share of the fee for John McGinn's move from Hibs to Aston Villa. Without that, they wouldn't be in profit. That said the Buddies had to pay off Alan Stubbs too. And with the McGinn money coming in early in the season it's likely that it was added to the budget.

    Promotion meant nearly half a million more in gate receipts and £600,000 more in prize money. The total wage bill for staff leapt from £2m to £3.2m which pretty much tied up the whole of the extra income. But they do have nearly £700,000 in the bank for rainy days. The club continues to plan for Fan Ownership, perhaps as soon as 2021.


    LOSSMAKING
    ABERDEEN
    TURNOVER: £15.9m (2017/18: £15.4m)
    LOSSES: £1m (2017/18: £800k)

    The Dons increased their turnover, but increased their losses as well. That's due to a combination of another increase in the wage bill from £8.5m to £9.2m and finishing lower in the league. The good news is that new chairman Dave Cormack has brought in considerable new investment. On the other hand, the move to a new stadium at Kingsford could be delayed till 2023.


    DUNDEE
    TURNOVER: £3.9m (2017/18: £4.6m)
    LOSSES: £1.8m (2017/18: £425k)

    Eek. Dundee have run a loss every single year since Tim Keyes took over the club, and its just as well he doesn't look like turning off the money tap any time soon. Getting rid of two different managers, along with pretty much bringing in an entirely new squad for Jim McIntyre, cost a fortune. Relegation will only reduce income further, and their accounts explain that significant losses are expected for this season and the next, with Keyes underwriting those. That said, with several million quid spaffed up against a wall since 2013, your guess is as good as mine as to where the cash for their proposed new ground will come from.


    MOTHERWELL
    TURNOVER: £4.6m (2017/18: £6.8m)
    LOSSES: £436k (2017/18: profit of £1.7m)

    2017/18 wasn't as successful on the park as 2016/17, and it showed. The wage bill stayed the same but with no cup runs, reduced prize money and reduced player sales (which still totalled £700k, mind) turnover dropped by a whopping 35%. They also spent a significant amount of the previous year's profit on infrastructure. Going forward, 'Well have now paid off loans to John Boyle and Les Hutchison, which leaves them with only £80k in debt now. But its no surprise that the accounts state "it is imperative to the good health and sustainability of Motherwell" that the club continues to do well out of selling on players; hopefully that big fee for David Turnbull will come after all.


    RANGERS
    TURNOVER: £53.2m (2017/18: £32.6m)
    LOSSES: £11.3m (2017/18: £14.3m)

    I wrote about Rangers' financial situation when these were published a few months ago.


    ST JOHNSTONE
    TURNOVER: not reported (2017/18 - not reported)
    LOSSES: £149k (2017/18 - £258k)

    Chairman Steve Brown has been a right sad sack in recent weeks, claiming the club has the sixth highest wage bill in the country (I dispute this) and suggesting losses for 2019/20 will be much higher. St. Johnstone still had £2m in the bank as of last summer which should protect them from any problems in the immediate future.


    NOT KNOWN
    HAMILTON ACCIES publish truncated accounts, as is their wont because of their low turnover. My understanding (which may be wrong) is that they lost nearly £500,000 in 2017/18, mostly because of a vishing scam. The 2018/19 accounts should be better, especially with £240,000 from Aberdeen for Lewis Ferguson.


    I hope this information is useful...and most of all I hope it is right! Please let me know any errors and I'll amend them.

    PS Kieran Maguire, to be found on Twitter at @PriceOfFootball, is the place to go for analysis of club accounts and finances, and covers Scottish clubs just as keenly as English ones.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  11. hislopsoffsideagain
    In case you haven't noticed, Covid-19 (let's be a bit pedantic and call it that, since there are plenty of other coronaviruses of varying severity, including causes of the common cold) is coming. At the time of writing there are 27 cases in Scotland, but that number is going to increase impressively.

    For what it's worth it seems to me (from my day job perspective as a GP) that the powers that be are dealing with things pretty appropriately at the moment. I'm not an expert in virology or epidemiology (or anything, really) but the advice they're giving right now makes sense to me. And the fact that said advice will change in the next little while as the number of infected people increases also makes sense.

    It does now seems inevitable that some time soon the government will ban large public gatherings. Like, say, football crowds. After all, it's already happening in Ligue 1, La Liga and Primeira Liga. In Italy, where infection rates are higher than anywhere else in Europe, they've gone a step further; all Serie A matches have been postponed till the start of April.

    It's not just the crowds that are the issue. The Premier League has postponed tonight's Manchester City v Arsenal game because Arsenal players have been exposed to someone with Covid-19 and are self-isolating. This will surely become a common issue and matches will have to be called off either one by one or probably en masse.

    And if that's what the experts say should happen here, then so be it. Saving lives is rather more important than twenty-two men chasing a ball.

    If/when that happens, there will be significant knock-on effects for Scottish football.

    More than anywhere else in Europe, Scottish clubs are dependent on matchday income. Postponing matches means that they won't see that cash till further down the road. Playing them behind closed doors means no cash at all.

    Football finance expert Kieran Maguire gave this take on how it will play out for English League One and League Two clubs, which is pretty comparable. By this time of year season ticket proceeds have been spent and clubs are dependent on what they can get from walk-up fans and away supporters, as well as food, programme sales etc. Not many have a rainy day fund to get through this sort of situation.

    It's also possible that clubs will be obliged to refund season ticket holders for games they aren't allowed to attend. One would like to think that most supporters would take that on the chin, but you never know. Having to compensate them in any way would be extremely onerous.

    It's certainly possible that a number of clubs who are already living hand-to-mouth - I'm mainly thinking of full-time teams in the Championship and League One - will be in a right fix. Will someone go bust? I hope not. But it must be a possibility.

    The SPFL and SFA have already noted this. As it stands, their intent is to "endeavour to complete the season and fulfil their obligations under their broadcasting agreements". They said that a week ago. It seems wildly optimistic now.

    If matches are to be postponed, when will they be played? Will they be played at all? What on earth will the SPFL do with the rest of the season? Here are the options that seem to be available. None of them are especially palatable...


    SQUEEZE IN ALL THE POSTPONED GAMES BY THE END OF THE SEASON
    Any matches that are called off are fitted in to the remaining available midweek dates. Everything finishes on time and it's all good.

    The problems with this plan: the last day of the domestic season - the Championship playoff final - is 24 May, with the lower leagues finishing their 'regular season' on 2 May and the Premiership finishing on 17 May. If there is a significant fixture backlog, there aren't many dates available for catchup. And if call-offs start happening before the Premiership split, then that could cause a real headache for schedulers.

    Chances of it happening: this is of course the ideal solution for everyone, but it seems increasinly unlikely circumstances will allow it.


    FINISH THE SEASON EARLY
    Bring forward the end of the season, and declare champions, relegation etc depending on positions at this point. Hearts strongly disapprove of this plan.

    The problems with this plan: obviously there's an element of unfairness. It's also not clear how you would manage cup finals and playoffs in these circumstances. And clubs would miss out on income from their last few home matches.

    Chances of it happening: there would be a significant outcry about 'sporting integrity' which would probably derail this. And the financial knock-on would also be a big problem. It is however the simplest solution, if not necessarily the fairest.


    EXTEND THE SEASON INTO THE SUMMER
    If matches aren't finished by the end of May, just keep playing into June...and onwards, if necessary.

    The problems with this plan: for a start, plenty of clubs have players only contracted till the end of May or even a few weeks before that in the case of lower division teams. Broadcasting and sponsorship agreements also expire around that time. There's also Euro 2020 (if it goes ahead as planned) and the need for players to get an appropriate break before the start of next season which would normally be scheduled for mid-July.

    Chances of it happening: this would probably cause as many problems as it would solve. Perhaps an option if other countries were doing it, but it would require major changes in the calendar for next season.


    LOTS OF PLAYOFFS
    The Italians have mooted deciding the title and relegation via playoff matches. It would certainly make for good TV.

    The problems with this plan: Celtic are never going to agree to a playoff for the league, given their current points advantage. And how do you decide what teams should go into the relegation playoffs in any given league?

    Chances of it happening: can't see it.


    CALL THE SEASON OFF
    Declare the 2019/20 season null and void. Don't award the league title to anyone. Don't have promotion or relegation. Start over next season with clubs in the same divisions they are now. Hearts strongly approve of this plan.

    The problems with this plan: who wants to volunteer to tell Celtic fans that nine-in-a-row is cancelled? There are also repercussions for clubs such as Dundee United, who would be stuck in the second tier for yet another year having spent significantly to get up to the top flight.

    Chances of it happening: unlikely, unless the rest of Europe is doing the same thing.


    CANCEL RELEGATION BUT ALLOW PROMOTION
    Get around the idea of stopping the season early being unfair on clubs at the bottom of the table by announcing relegation would be scrapped, but allow promotion to take place anyway so no-one is disadvantaged (much). Obviously it would be sensible to promote the team currently second in the Championship since the playoffs wouldn't happen (wink, wink).

    The problems with this plan: you'd end up with having to deal with a 14 team top flight for at least a season, which would be a whole new issue.

    Chances of it happening: pretty much zero, since only a half-crazed Caley Thistle-supporting blogger would even think of it, let alone support it.



    In conclusion, this is going to be a real headache for Scottish football - and for football in general - to deal with. For us, it'll probably be a case of doing what England and other countries do. Normally I would grate at that, but in this case following everyone else's lead is probably the best way forward. That's assuming of course that everyone else agrees on a way to go forward.

    And most importantly, if this is the price to pay for helping the country and the world get through this crisis, then so be it. Remember that Bill Shankly quote - "Some people think football is a matter of life and death...I can assure them it is much more serious than that."? Bear in mind that he was joking.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  12. hislopsoffsideagain
    It's been, what, two weeks without football? The withdrawal is already so bad that I gave in to the Football Manager 2020 free trial; after 12 years on the wagon I'm now obsessing about how to get Weymouth out of the National League South. Either I pay full whack for the game or I face being locked in my childhood bedroom for a week being fed nothing but pea soup. Choose life, choose a job, choose a career, choose '4-2-4 wing play custom route one'.

    But my tremors and nightsweats are nothing compared to those of the people who actually run football clubs. Forget the crazy schemes like secluding Premier League squads in the midlands for a month to play matches behind closed doors in order to keep the nation from cracking each other's heads open to feast on the goo inside. It'll be fecking months before we're even allowed jumpers for goalposts again.

    That's if, in the post-covid 19 world, there's actually any football to go back to. Given that giants such as Barcelona and Juventus are having to agree wage cuts/deferrals with players, what hope is there for Scottish clubs? Will they all have gone bust by the time we return to a semblance of normality?

    The challenges they face are pretty similar: paying wages (and other outgoings like council tax) whilst having no income.

    The sums involved are of course a bit more modest than those regarding Leo Messi and co. At one extreme end of the SPFL scale there is Celtic, whose staff costs for 2018/19 were £56.4m. Only Rangers and Aberdeen also have staff costs above £10m/year. Hearts and Hibs are not far off that, while most of the other Premiership clubs are under £5m/year. The smallest full-time sides, in the Championship and at the top of League One, are at closer to £1m or even less.

    At the other end are the part-timers. Winger, teacher and blogger Danny Denholm, now plying his trade at East Fife, wrote in the December 2018 edition of Nutmeg Magazine that the average League One wage was between £100 and £300/week. There are some players *cough* Rory McAllister *cough* who will be on far more than that.

    There's also the awkward situation with player contracts, many of which will expire in May or June at a point that is still some way away from a return to football. It's likely that FIFA and/or UEFA will agree a blanket move to extend contracts a few months. If this doesn't happen there will be a few clubs disadvantaged, as some players will surely take the chance to jump ship and join another club as per usual. Those however will be dwarfed by the number of players who are released to save money and who will find it very difficult to find another team until the footie actually starts again.

    In one sense the smaller clubs might be better protected. The government's furlough scheme, which clubs should be eligible for, will pay 80% of wages up to a total of £2500/month. That should cover any player earning £3,100/month or less - which extrapolates to about £700/week, a figure that should be cover most players from the Championship (those not based in the City Of Discovery, anyway) down.

    Maybe that's how Caley Thistle - not exactly awash with cash - can pledge to pay staff who earn under £24,000/year - essentially those who would be covered by the government scheme - in full with higher paid staff taking a 20% cut, and Partick Thistle can guarantee all staff wages up till the end of May.

    Yet there's still Raith Rovers, one of League One's full-time clubs, starting a fundraising drive, while Peterhead, Montrose, Dumbarton and Elgin City are amongst the part-time teams whose players are taking wage cuts. The bottom line is that these clubs have very little cash in terms of cash reserves in the bank and are heavily dependent on gate money - even more so at this time of the season when season ticket cash has long been spent.

    At the other end of the scale are Hearts, whose players have been asked to take a 50% pay cut or terminate their contracts. Defender Clevid Dikamona, who took the chance to return to his family in France but holds out hope of returning next season, is so far the only player to take the latter option. I may be being harsh but I feel like a business with an annual turnover of £15m should be more resilient. Then again, the Jambos were supposedly paying some players a crazy £6,000/week.

    Most Premiership players will be on deals which, while not as daft as that, are more expensive than that covered by the government and therefore only a smaller percentage will be covered. So whilst no other top flight sides have yet commented publicly on wage cuts, it would be a surprise if it didn't happen sooner or later, possibly in agreement with PFA Scotland. After all, Aberdeen have admitted they'll lose £1.2m a month as it stands.

    We're also coming into the period of the year where season tickets for next season normally go on sale. Some clubs are already cracking on as per usual, hoping fans won't mind paying full whack even when it's not clear how many games they'll be watching and when they'll be. You'd think that sales will be markedly lower both for this reason and because plenty of fans have their own money worries right now.

    So which clubs should we be concerned about?

    All forty-two have at least cleared the first (admittedly, not very high) hurdle of paying March's wages, though some of the above-mentioned clubs may have implicated cuts as part of this. But we're only a fortnight into this. The situation will be far clearer in a month's time.

    It is a bit simplistic but not entirely unreasonable to assume clubs who have a rich sugar daddy - the Dundee clubs, Ross County and Hibernian come to mind - have more resilience. And if you have £39million just resting in your account, you'll be fine. By the end of this, Peter Lawwell may be sleeping on a smaller pile of money, mind.

    It might also be presumptuous to conclude Hearts are in trouble given their swift actions. Perhaps they're just the ones quickest off the mark. Or perhaps I'm being overly generous.

    There's also the red, white and blue elephant in the room. It's only a few months since Rangers stated that they required £10m to get them through the season. Their Europa League run will certainly have helped there but it seems that hopes of significant outside investment have evaporated. There are still some very wealthy people involved there though who have not been shy of providing interest-free loans that end up as equity further down the line. And there's also a huge fanbase who will surely not hold back when season ticket sales commence.

    So with a bit of common sense and a combination of prudence and government support, hopefully everyone will come out of this if not unscathed then only slightly wounded. Here's to hoping, anyway...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  13. hislopsoffsideagain
    This is the eighth season we've done this.

    Whilst football has come to a standstill I don't believe it entitles these players (or the clubs that signed them) a stay of execution. The halt to matches has probably spared some - particularly January arrivals) - from appearing on this list simply because there wasn't enough evidence of them being crap. But that didn't mean we were short of folk to choose from...


    As a reminder, here are the previous seven 'winners':
    2012/13 - Rory Boulding (Kilmarnock) 2013/14 - Stephane Bahoken (St. Mirren) 2014/15 - Jim Fenlon (Ross County) 2015/16 - Rodney Sneijder (Dundee United) 2016/17 - Joey Barton (Rangers) 2017/18 - Eduardo Herrera (Rangers) 2018/19 - Umar Sadiq (Rangers)
    Let's start things off with a countdown from 25 to 11...

    25. JAMES WILSON (ABERDEEN)
    The first player to appear on this list two years in a row, on the rather dubious grounds that he was only a rubbish loan signing last season for the Dons and was then inexplicably signed permanently last summer. Hey, I don't make the rules...well, actually, I do. Wilson, who will have been on a decent contract, failed to score in sixteen appearances this season and left in January for Salford City, where he scored twice on his debut - one more goal than he managed in the whole of 2019.


    24. KOREDE ADEDOYIN (HAMILTON ACCIES)

    The traditional even-the-club's-own-fans-didn't-know-he-was-playing-for-them player. Signed on loan from Everton, the teenage forward played ninety minutes for Accies' Colts in the Challenge Cup, which was ninety more minutes than he played for the first team. When he returned south in January, Hamilton's website stated it was due to "tough competition for places", which given the quality of the club's attacking options, means he really can't have been very good.


    23. GLENN MIDDLETON (HIBERNIAN)

    This looked like such a good move on paper; exciting young winger Middleton had looked the part in a few cameos at Rangers and would get plenty of playing time in an ascending Hibs side. Except Hibs were heading in the wrong direction and Middleton was dragged along with them. After Paul Heckingbottom's dismissal he never played again, with Jack Ross seemingly writing him off instantly. Half a season of a talented youngster's development wasted.


    22. EWAN HENDERSON (ROSS COUNTY)
    Half a season of a talented youngster's development wasted, part deux. Why Celtic and Ross County thought stylish midfielder Henderson would be a good fit in County's somewhat agricultural midfield I have no idea. He made only six starts and was recalled to Glasgow in January. Worse, he had made a substitute appearance for Celtic in a Champions League qualifier - in the ninetieth minute - which meant Celtic couldn't loan him out to someone else for the second half of the season (not that, in hindsight, that would have meant much action).


    21. RYAN SCHOFIELD (LIVINGSTON)
    When Matija Sarkic was unexpectedly recalled by his parent club during the winter break, Livi were suddenly left without a competent keeper (no, Ross Stewart doesn't count). By the end of the window they'd ended up with both Schofield and Robby McCrorie, with McCrorie as first choice. Schofield signed first, but a combination of a (short-term) injury in his first game and the unexpected availability of Rangers prospect McCrorie on loan led Gary Holt back into the market and left the Huddersfield keeper somewhat surplus to requirements. Schofield did get to play in the Scottish Cup (as McCrorie was cuptied), but was partly culpable for the only goal in a defeat at Inverness.


    20. HARVEY ST. CLAIR (KILMARNOCK)
    You'd think an ex-Chelsea youth, Scottish under-21 forward who started matches for parent club Venezia in Serie B last year would make more than three appearances for Kilmarnock, wouldn't you? Your guess is as good as mine as to what's gone wrong here. There have been no reports of injuries and he has occasionally been an unused sub but the youngster, who was apparently wanted by Rangers last summer, has offered practically nothing to Killie's season.


    19. CECE PEPE (LIVINGSTON)
    "Cece is an out and out defender and likes to defend, good on the ball, physical and has a bit of pace." Gary Holt was very bullish about the Frenchman on his arrival last June. But he made only two sub appearances in the league before picking up a calf injury in October that has hobbled him since. Livi are not exactly short of strength or depth in central defence now, especially after picking up Efe Ambrose, and it remains to be seen whether Pepe will see out the second season of his two year contract.


    18. WALLACE DUFFY (ST. JOHNSTONE)
    Unlike many of the players on this list, Duffy has seen plenty of action; he has started 14 games for St. Johnstone. However, after ten league starts at right-back or centre-back in which Saints conceded 26 goals, his demotion to the bench at the start of December coincided with them racing up the table. Time will tell if Duffy, who has just turned 21, still has room for improvement or whether he just isn't up to Premiership standard.


    17. BRANDON BARKER (RANGERS)
    With Jordan Jones, Jake Hastie and Sheyi Ojo all arriving last summer (and Ryan Kent soon to return) its not clear why Steven Gerrard wanted yet another wide player, or why he wanted Barker who had hardly set the heather alight in a year at Easter Road in the 2017/18 season. Curiously, two of his four starts for Rangers have been against Porto in the Europa League; however he has mainly been a substitute. The decision to give him a three year deal looks weirder and weirder as time goes on.


    16. DONIS AVDIJAJ (HEARTS)
    There was plenty of hype about the impending arrival of the Kosovan international in January, but his previous issues at other clubs and his decision to wear the '99' shirt (players with daft numbers like that are always for the watching) were red flags. When he joined, the winger declared "there is no country, no city in the world where I don't score. I score everywhere." At Tynecastle, he could barely even get a game.


    15. SIMON POWER (ROSS COUNTY)
    The Irish wideman joined Kings Lynn Town in England's sixth tier in January; this is apparently more his level than the Scottish Premiership. Power's loan from Norwich to Dingwall looked like a bit of coup given he played in the 2019 Toulon Tournament and had apparently impressed Lyon and Borussia Dortmund. He certainly didn't impress County fans, given he was trusted with just seven minutes of league action in his spell in the Highlands.


    14. OSMAN SOW (KILMARNOCK)
    Remember when Sow was so awesome for Hearts that they sold him for a million quid? That feels like long ago. The Swedish striker has struggled for fitness ever since he returned to Scotland with Dundee United and spent the first half of this campaign on loan at goal-lite Killie. Sow started only two matches and failed to score, even missing a penalty against Ross County. He never looked on the pace at all there, but actually broke back into the United lineup on his return to Tannadice...only to rupture his achilles tendon at the start of February.


    13. IBRAHIM SAVANE (LIVINGSTON)
    Two year deal. Two sub appearances. Thirty-one minutes of first team action. Away after three months. The Guinean left-back apparently struggled dreadfully with homesickness, though Livi rather unkindly noted on his departure that he "really struggled to adapt to Scottish football".


    12. ADRIAN BECK (HAMILTON ACCIES)
    Powerful German midfielder Beck joined Hamilton on loan from a Belgium second division team with Brian Rice claiming "he's very sharp on the ball. I think he will settle well in Scotland." Apparently not, given Beck started only two games and had his deal cut short in January. He's now playing in the German regional leagues. Gloriously, Beck has recently whinged to the German press about Scottish football being rubbish, involving only "high and wide balls" which were "not my idea of football". He also claimed Rice didn't pick him because he wasn't British. Aye, sure...
    11. JORDAN JONES (RANGERS)
    Jones was terrific at Kilmarnock but it always looked likely that Rangers would be too much of a step up for him. And so it has proved. Whilst he has made the odd start and a few sub appearances, Jones' first season at Rangers looks likely to be remembered only for getting himself stupidly sent off for hacking Moritz Bauer against Celtic in a match that was already lost, and injuring himself for the next three months in the process. It's hard to see him having a long-term future at Ibrox.


    The top ten will be with you soon enough...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
    View the full article
  14. hislopsoffsideagain
    Part one of this, which counts down from 25 to 11, can be found here.

    As ever, the top ten is dominated by whichever club has drastically underachieved that season. No prizes for guessing which side occupies more spots than any other, though not the top one. And for the first time in four seasons, it isn't a Rangers player who 'leads' these standings.

    Onward...


    10. SIMEON JACKSON (KILMARNOCK) The Canadian international hardly impressed at St. Mirren last season, but Kilmarnock were so desperate for strikers - and for numbers, given how threadbare their squad was - that they took a chance on the 32 year old on a short-term deal in October. Angelo Alessio claimed he was very similar to Eamonn Brophy, and he is...apart from the goals, and the pace, and the work-rate. One start and three sub appearances later he was off to Stevenage.


    9. JOEL CASTRO PEREIRA (HEARTS) The funny thing is that a few years ago Joel Pereira was highly enough thought of that he was part of the Portugal squad at the 2016 Olympics and started a Premier League game for Manchester United in 2017. But that was then and this is now. And now the Swiss-born goalie has clearly not fulfilled his potential. I accept that there is a need these days for a keeper being able to use his feet, but not at the expense of using his hands. Pereira seemed allergic to making his saves; his poor positioning was found out frequently and when he did get his gloves to the ball it was only to parry it out directly in front of him, often straight to the nearest opponent. He was so rotten that he's made Zdenek Zlamal - Zdenek Zlamal! - look like a reliable alternative.


    8. OAN DJORKAEFF (ST. MIRREN) Expectations were probably too high because of his famous father Youri, but the young midfielder was considered good enough to play all St. Mirren's League Cup group games. The problem is that these included a loss to Dunfermline and draws with East Kilbride and Albion Rovers, proving to Jim Goodwin that he needed to upgrade his team fast. Djorkaeff managed just five minutes of first team football after the first week of the league season, and spent so much time as an unused substitute - sixteen games - that he there is probably a Djorkaeff-shaped dent in the St. Mirren bench. He spent January training with Queen of the South but didn't win a contract...but apparently didn't leave Paisley either. At least we think he didn't, though he hasn't been seen since so it's hard to know.


    7. LOIC DAMOUR (HEARTS) Craig Levein had wanted Loic Damour last January, and clearly wanted him badly given that the Frenchman was awarded a four year contract at Tynecastle. It's only two seasons since he was a useful part of the Cardiff team that got promoted to the Premier League but Jambos haven't seen any of that. Instead they've had to view a midfielder who has been ponderous in and out of possession and who has shown a remarkable talent only for giving the ball away. Hearts actually tried to move him on in January but he's still there with no signs that Daniel Stendel can redeem him.


    6. JOSH VELA (HIBERNIAN) Vela's signing certainly looked good on paper. The versatile midfielder had been a constant for Bolton over several years in the Championship before coming north and Paul Heckingbottom had plans to use his energy in a box-to-box role. Unfortunately, said energy seemed to have been left behind in Lancashire. Heckingbottom's last match - a thumping by Celtic in the League Cup semi - was also Vela's, with his particularly turgid display summing up his time at Easter Road. He never played a game under Jack Ross and moved to Shrewsbury in January.


    5. MORITZ BAUER (CELTIC) Bauer's deadline day signing on loan from Stoke was clearly aimed at improving Celtic's depth at right-back. One suspects there was a decent fee involved as part of it. But the Austrian has rarely been seen on the park. Part of that is because Celtic have done fine at the position with Jeremie Frimpong's rapid emergence and formation tinkering that has seen both Kristoffer Ajer and James Forrest on that side of the pitch, and part of that is because Bauer hasn't really been great when he has been in action. He's been a dud, and probably an expensive one, but it hasn't exactly impacted negatively on Celtic's season.


    4. ANDY KING (RANGERS) Like Bauer, King's lack of impact hasn't really damaged Rangers in any way other than in the financial sense; the club will have paid a significant chunk of the Welshman's wages for the four months or so he was at Ibrox. The move didn't even make sense at the time given Steven Gerrard already had plenty of options in midfield. Five substitute appearances and a total of 70 minutes on the pitch later, he returned south. If (as I'm sure I saw somewhere, unless I dreamt it) he cost about £20,000/week, those twenty weeks he was in Scotland were very, very expensive.


    3. GLENN WHELAN (HEARTS) There's a fine line between being 'experienced' and being 'past it'. Hearts were hoping that 35 year old Glenn Whelan was the former but he rather looked like the latter. Not that he would acknowledge it; the Irishman would later claim that "my form was good for the last few months" of Craig Levein's tenure. That's somewhat at odds with what everyone else thought. He complained that people said "that I didn't fancy it, that I was laying down the tools". That'll be because that's exactly what it looked like. Daniel Stendel, on being asked about the veteran's leadership qualities, responded with "a real leader in the centre of the pitch? Sorry, maybe I missed it." Ouch. The funny thing is he was still getting picked for Ireland during his time at Tynecastle and he's fitted in nicely at Fleetwood Town since signing for them in January. So chances are he was afflicted by the same malaise as everyone else at Hearts, rather than a cause of it.


    2. CASPER SLOTH (MOTHERWELL) One unkind Twitter user suggested Sloth looked happier in the departure lounge of Edinburgh Airport, awaiting his flight to Copenhagen, than he did at any point of his spell at Fir Park. The Danish international midfielder's arrival on a two year deal looked like a coup for Motherwell, a player whose career had stalled in the last couple of seasons and who could really shine in the SPFL. Stephen Robinson championed "not only his ability on the park, but his desire (and) his hunger to be here". We'll have to take his word for it, as Sloth made just a single League Cup appearance. When he was mutually consented in January, Robinson was at least generous enough to credit him with "pushing on younger players in his position to excel". If you say so, Stephen...


    1. MADIS VIHMANN (ST. JOHNSTONE) St. Johnstone's defence was hoaching in the first half of the season. So what does that say about a central defender who, even when they were dreadful and desperate, Tommy Wright could not bring himself to play? Lanky Estonian international Vihmann signed a season-long loan deal in July, but his debut saw the Perth Saints embarrassed by Forfar and his next appearance was a 7-0 humiliation at Celtic Park. Vihmann made just three more appearances. He left McDiarmid Park in January. We'll never see his like again - literally, as he announced his retirement "for personal reasons" just a few days later, at the age of just 24.


    Hopefully there'll be another edition of this next year...though that would require us having some football to actually watch first. Fingers crossed...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
    View the full article
  15. hislopsoffsideagain
    The phrase 'club statement' now fills one with almost as much dread as 'root canal surgery', or 'Andy Halliday at left-back'. There have been exceptions - Stenhousemuir and Kelty Hearts leading the way - but most cases have involved people who think they're cleverer than they are and who have too much time on their hands using the word 'dignity' whilst throwing it away spectacularly in a multi-paragraphed ranting word salad.


    It would be nice to think that the result of today's vote on having an independent inquiry might bring a break from these lunatic pronouncements. The number of clubs in favour of such an inquiry - thirteen - was higher than I expected but not high enough even to hint at a general lack of confidence in the league, let alone actually triumph.

    Whether it does so or not now depends on whether those who still have an axe to grind find other avenues of attack. A previous suggestion by Rangers of going to CAS sounds more like desperation from a slightly unhinged supporter on an internet forum than a real possibility. However Hearts may well feel the cost of relegation is high enough to justify risking a legal challenge. I've long wondered whether this might throw a spanner in the works not necessarily because the Jambos would win but by holding up the start of the 2020/21 season long enough that the other side has to back down. One shudders at the thought of what animosity would develop should this scenario occur.
    Whichever side of the divide you come down on - and, depressingly, it has been treated by too many as a case of being either pro-Rangers or anti-Rangers when there is so, so much more at stake here - there is a compelling argument here that letting things get so out of control is evidence that there is a total failure of leadership at the SPFL. A competent organization would have largely ignored the Rangers dossier and kept quiet until, as was always inevitable, they won the vote on an independent inquiry.
    Instead MacLennan, Neil Doncaster and other members of the board have come out all guns blazing, throwing allegations back at their accusers and keeping the pot boiling over instead of turning the heat off. They may feel that they are entitled to do so given the personal nature of some of the attacks but they've been impugned before and still managed to take it on the chin,
    After all, Doncaster earns his £350,000 salary as Chief Executive not because of outstanding business acumen but because he has proven willing, for that money, to be the face of the organization and therefore the target and lightning rod for criticism. He has had plenty of that over the years without resorting to an almost permanent slot on BBC Radio Scotland to defend himself; why change that now?
    The thing is, there's so much childish mud-slinging going around that it is becoming increasingly easy to forget the trigger for this whole palava - the farce over Dundee's vote on bringing the lower leagues to an end. I'm quite prepared to believe that one man's 'bullying' could be another's 'robust conversations', given emotions will have been running high. I'm also prepared to accept that getting 42 different clubs who are almost all entirely fixated only on their own short-term self-interests - I think putting that in bold was justified - to agree on something may well require a bit of harassing and harrying with strong-worded reminders about potential ramifications and with artificial deadlines.
    But whilst Doncaster and co. would no doubt argue that they have done nothing illegal that is not the same as doing nothing wrong. There was publishing the result of the April vote before everyone had voted. There was allowing (and effectively encouraging) Dundee to change their vote. There was openly offering the reconstruction carrot and then putting so many cooks into the working group that there was no way in hell the broth would be edible, all the while being quite aware that Premiership clubs would torpedo any plan regardless.

    But Doncaster survives because he is still, to enough clubs, a useful idiot. At any given time the status quo suits a large enough number that reform and progress is impossible. This has been the case for several years and there is no reason to expect this will change, especially because of the arcane decision-making system - what the league calls 'democracy' - where potentially three clubs in one division can shoot down a motion supported by the other thirty-nine.

    Whether reconstruction would have actually been a positive move in the short-term or the long-term is still open to debate - not least because it feels like it hasn't properly been debated. If it is true that this has just been a distraction from the much, much bigger problem - the fact that clubs can't play football currently, don't know when they will be able to play or under what conditions, and might go bust before that day comes - then the SPFL now should have no excuses for being fully focussed.

    But there will be considerable battles ahead here. There will be questions of closed-doors matches, player safety, supporter access and safety and probably plenty more. There will be a myriad of opinions, and a myriad of different needs. And ultimately the league will need to get the vast majority of the clubs to agree on a plan to tackle this enormous crisis.

    Good luck with that, lads.

    Still, it could be worse. Imagine if John Nelms was on the board: he'd have probably given away the TV rights for magic beans.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
    View the full article
  16. hislopsoffsideagain
    As you will all be acutely aware, in a Covid-free universe the Scotland National Team would have marched inexorably through the spring playoffs and into Euro 2020. Israel at home? Pah. We managed to beat Israel at home with Alex McLeish in charge. Israel are so cack that James Forrest scored a hat-trick against them.

    And then Norway away, probably. Sure, Erling Haaland looks like a bit of a player, but he looks to be the perfect size and shape for Charlie Mulgrew's back pocket. Besides, Norway are under as much pressure as us over not qualifying for tournaments for practically forever. They'd have definitely wilted under the pressure of satisfying an anxious Oslo support, just as Haaland would have wilted once he'd stared into Scott McKenna's cold, dead eyes.

    And therefore we should be awaiting, around this point, the announcement of the squad - the twenty-three players (including three goalkeepers) that would take us to glory...or at least a fighting shot at being one of the best third-placed sides in a group with England, Croatia and the Czech Republic.

    So I thought it might be fun to pick my own Scotland squad. Which it was, right up until the point I had to whittle it down to twenty-three from an original list of thirty-five. Then it stopped being fun and started being a case of typing with one hand whilst putting the other on my stressed forehead.

    I don't buy the idea of two players for every position - at least, certainly not when it comes to attackers. Different types of players are needed for different situations. Some injury cover is definitely required but so too are guys who you'd bring off the bench if you were chasing a goal...or hanging onto a slender lead. But striking the balance is decidedly easier said than done.

    So here's my pop at it. I suspect many of you will have your own thoughts - constructive ones, I hope! - and I look forward to hearing them. Anyone who has previously retired from international football wasn't getting back in, no matter how much Allan McGregor and Scott Brown begged...



    GOALKEEPERS: DAVID MARSHALL (WIGAN ATHLETIC), JON MCLAUGHLIN (SUNDERLAND), ROBBY MCCRORIE (RANGERS)

    When I was a boy, I swear goalkeeper felt like a position of strength for Scotland. Not so now. Marshall is the only stonewall-certain pick here and would start between the sticks. With Allan McGregor out of the picture and Craig Gordon having not played a league game since December 2018 the other two slots are wide open. I initially listed Scott Bain because he would be my number two if he played as well as he did for Celtic in early 2019 but that was a long time ago. In contrast McLaughlin has been a regular in squads and so I imagine he'd be on the plane though being a starter in League One doesn't give him or Portsmouth's Craig MacGillivray much kudos in my eyes. I know very little about MacGillivray, which perhaps unfairly counts against him. The third keeper is never going to play, so is it really worth taking a veteran? Instead I plump for the guy who I think will be Marshall's long-term successor, Robby McCrorie, for the experience. He gets the nod just ahead of QPR's Liam Kelly. That also means - spoiler alert - that Rangers fans won't moan that I haven't picked any of their players...



    FULL-BACKS: ANDREW ROBERTSON (LIVERPOOL), KIERAN TIERNEY (ARSENAL),  GREG TAYLOR (CELTIC), STEPHEN O'DONNELL (KILMARNOCK)

    How many left-backs can we pick? Captain Robbo is obviously going to start, while I maintain that a fully-fit and committed Tierney would potentially be our best option at right-back and possibly even in central-defence (you laugh, but wait till you see the list of centre-backs). Taking Greg Taylor can be justified if he was considered as Robertson's backup (since I'm playing Tierney somewhere else in the backline). If not, he would surely be the highest-quality player left behind. Callum Paterson, who is named later, would also be an acceptable right-back option so you can probably get away with picking one natural right-back. I suppose it would be helpful to take someone who actually plays the position naturally, so I'll plump for Stephen O'Donnell over Liam Palmer. I'd like to think O'Donnell wouldn't play but he's a known quantity to Clarke and his banter (and baking ability) won't do squad morale any harm.



    CENTRE-BACKS: SCOTT MCKENNA (ABERDEEN), LIAM COOPER (LEEDS UNITED), CHARLIE MULGREW (BLACKBURN ROVERS)

    This is where I should probably dig out the Frasier "Dear God!" gif. Would I be confident with any of the available centre-backs playing in a major tournament? Hell, no. What a bunch. I'm certain Clarke would pick Mulgrew because of his experience but I still have nightmares about how Artem Dzyuba benchpressed him in Moscow. McKenna is a cert too, even if he hasn't kicked on enough in the last year or so for my liking; at least his forehead remains a ball magnet. I probably rate Liam Cooper too highly but I'd rather have him facing Harry Kane than Declan Gallagher and Stuart Findlay, good as they have been in the Premiership this season. If I'm gambling on Tierney as a central defender (please don't @ me) then I reckon I can leave Gallagher, Findlay and Grant Hanley behind, so I can pick more midfielders and forwards. It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off.



    CENTRAL MIDFIELDERS: JOHN MCGINN (ASTON VILLA), CALLUM MCGREGOR (CELTIC), KENNY MCLEAN (NORWICH CITY), JOHN FLECK (SHEFFIELD UNITED), SCOTT MCTOMINAY (MANCHESTER UNITED)

    From a position where we have no quality to one where we have it in spades. Clarke will probably start with a central midfield trio, and if they're fit I'd guess McTominay, McGregor and McGinn would be those three picks. That would also give a decent balance of qualities in and out of possession. McLean has looked decent as part of a deep double pivot and could play there at times when parking the bus is required. Fleck would be a perfectly decent backup for both McGregor and McGinn. The romantic in me wants Billy Gilmour as a bit of an X-factor, but I just couldn't find space for him. I couldn't see a situation where he or Ryan Jack would start or likely come off the bench, so they stay at home.



    ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS/WIDE PLAYERS: RYAN CHRISTIE (CELTIC), JAMES FORREST (CELTIC), RYAN FRASER (BOURNEMOUTH), CALLUM PATERSON (CARDIFF CITY), STUART ARMSTRONG (SOUTHAMPTON)

    I've already pencilled in Paterson because of his versatility - he could do a job at right-back, as an attacking midfielder and up front. Two of Christie, Forrest and Fraser should be in the starting XI. I very nearly left Stuart Armstrong out but I just love his hair too much. That, and his box-to-box engine offers something a bit different. But mostly it's because of the hair.



    STRIKERS: OLI MCBURNIE (SHEFFIELD UNITED), LEIGH GRIFFITHS (CELTIC), LAWRENCE SHANKLAND (DUNDEE UNITED)

    And that leaves me with space for all of three centre-forwards. Griffiths has to be one going by his apparent return to form. I think McBurnie has to be the other as he is best placed to play as a target man. And I have to have Shankland because he's the bloke coming on when we're 1-0 down with ten minutes left. I'm not confident the declining Steven Naismith offers enough to make the cut. Oli Burke misses out too.


    So that's the twenty-three then. The players I considered but who didn't pick were Liam Kelly, Craig MacGillivray, Liam Palmer, Stuart Findlay, Declan Gallagher, Grant Hanley, Billy Gilmour, Ryan Jack, Mikey Johnston, Johnny Russell, Oli Burke and Steven Naismith

    There's bound to be someone I've forgotten, isn't there?

    Anyway, it's all academical because, by the time Euro 2021 comes around, a lot will have changed. Billy Gilmour will have become the British Xavi, Leigh Griffiths will be back to his 2017 level and finally we'll have a competent central defender.

    Well, maybe not the last one...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 

    View the full article
  17. hislopsoffsideagain
    Better late than never, I suppose.

    Usually my Team Of The Year goes up in April, but with everything else that's going on it had fallen by the wayside. But I was spurred into action by the SPFL's own 'voted for by fans' effort.



    Sake.

    I mean, Mohamed Elyounoussi made all of seven starts and three sub appearances in the league this season. Jeremie Frimpong played twelve games. I know the season was cut short, but I'm not having that...nor a vote that ends up with players from only the two cheeks of the Glasgow arse.

    So here's mine. But first, for old time's sake (and to make me cringe), the twelve previous Teams Of The Year...

    2007/08: Allan McGregor (Rangers), Alan Hutton (Rangers), Carlos Cuellar (Rangers), Lee Wilkie (Dundee United), Lee Naylor (Celtic), Barry Robson (Celtic), Stephen Hughes (Motherwell), Barry Ferguson (Rangers), Aiden McGeady (Celtic), Scott McDonald (Celtic), Steven Fletcher (Hibernian)

    2008/09: Lukasz Zaluska (Dundee United), Andreas Hinkel (Celtic), Gary Caldwell (Celtic), Lee Wilkie (Dundee United), Sasa Papac (Rangers), Scott Brown (Celtic), Bruno Aguiar (Hearts), Pedro Mendes (Rangers), Andrew Driver (Hearts), Scott McDonald (Celtic), Kris Boyd (Rangers)

    2009/10: John Ruddy (Motherwell), Steven Whittaker (Rangers), David Weir (Rangers), Andy Webster (Dundee United), Sasa Papac (Rangers), Steven Davis (Rangers), Morgaro Gomis (Dundee United), James McArthur (Hamilton), Anthony Stokes (Hibernian), Kris Boyd (Rangers), David Goodwillie (Dundee United)

    2010/11: Marian Kello (Hearts), Steven Whittaker (Rangers), Daniel Majstorovic (Celtic), Michael Duberry (St. Johnstone), Emilio Izaguirre (Celtic), Steven Naismith (Rangers), Beram Kayal (Celtic), Alexei Eremenko (Kilmarnock), David Templeton (Hearts), Nikica Jelavic (Rangers), David Goodwillie (Dundee United)
    2011/12: Cammy Bell (Kilmarnock), Adam Matthews (Celtic), Carlos Bocanegra (Rangers), Charlie Mulgrew (Celtic), Paul Dixon (Dundee United), James Forrest (Celtic), Victor Wanyama (Celtic), Ian Black (Hearts), Dean Shiels (Kilmarnock), Jon Daly (Dundee United), Gary Hooper (Celtic)

    2012/13: Fraser Forster (Celtic), Mihael Kovacevic (Ross County), Gary Warren (Inverness CT), Mark Reynolds (Aberdeen), Stevie Hammell (Motherwell), Victor Wanyama (Celtic), Nicky Law (Motherwell), Murray Davidson (St. Johnstone), Leigh Griffiths (Hibernian), Michael Higdon (Motherwell), Billy Mckay (Inverness CT) 

    2013/14: Jamie MacDonald (Hearts), Dave Mackay (St. Johnstone), Virgil Van Dijk (Celtic), Mark Reynolds (Aberdeen), Andrew Robertson (Dundee United), Scott Brown (Celtic), Stuart Armstrong (Dundee United), Peter Pawlett (Aberdeen), Kris Commons (Celtic), Kris Boyd (Kilmarnock), Stevie May (St. Johnstone)

    2014/15: Craig Gordon (Celtic), Shay Logan (Aberdeen), Virgil Van Dijk (Celtic), Jason Denayer (Celtic), Graeme Shinnie (Inverness CT), Ryan Jack (Aberdeen), Greg Tansey (Inverness CT), Greg Stewart (Dundee), Stefan Johansen (Celtic), Gary Mackay-Steven (Dundee United/Celtic), Adam Rooney (Aberdeen)

    2015/16: Jamie MacDonald (Kilmarnock), Callum Paterson (Hearts), Igor Rossi (Hearts), Andrew Davies (Ross County), Graeme Shinnie (Aberdeen), Nir Bitton (Celtic), Jackson Irvine (Ross County), Jonny Hayes (Aberdeen), Kenny McLean (Aberdeen), Marvin Johnson (Motherwell), Leigh Griffiths (Celtic)

    2016/17: Joe Lewis (Aberdeen), Callum Paterson (Hearts), Jozo Simunovic (Celtic), Joe Shaughnessy (St. Johnstone), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Jonny Hayes (Aberdeen), Stuart Armstrong (Celtic), Adam Barton (Partick Thistle), Scott Sinclair (Celtic), Moussa Dembele (Celtic), Liam Boyce (Ross County)
    2017/18: Jon McLaughlin (Hearts), James Tavernier (Rangers), Scott McKenna (Aberdeen), Christophe Berra (Hearts), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Scott Brown (Celtic), Dylan McGeouch (Hibernian), John McGinn (Hibernian), James Forrest (Celtic), Daniel Candeias (Rangers), Kris Boyd (Kilmarnock)
    2018/19: Allan McGregor (Rangers), James Tavernier (Rangers), Kristoffer Ajer (Celtic), Craig Halkett (Livingston), Kieran Tierney (Celtic), Callum McGregor (Celtic), David Turnbull (Motherwell), James Forrest (Celtic), Ryan Christie (Celtic), Ryan Kent (Rangers), Alfredo Morelos (Rangers)

    And here's this year's goalkeeper and back four.

    GOALKEEPER: MARK GILLESPIE (MOTHERWELL)
    Honourable mentions: Fraser Forster (Celtic), Vaclav Hladky (St. Mirren)

    It's quite possible that none of this trio will be in the SPFL next season. Gillespie was so impressive this season that he might actually end up signing for Newcastle United. He is a cracking shot-stopper and, just as crucially, he was reliable and mistake-free. Forster has certainly looked more like the keeper who shone in his first spell in Scotland than the one who lost confidence at Southampton, but at domestic level he really isn't tested very much. Hladky has been terrific since arriving in Paisley and he will be an extremely difficult act to follow.


    RIGHT-BACK: JAMES TAVERNIER (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Aaron McGowan (Hamilton Academical), Stephen O'Donnell (Kilmarnock)

    No, I don't love this pick either. After all, Tav hasn't been anywhere near as good as he was in the last two campaigns (both of which ended up with him in my Team Of The Year as well).But my rules are that players are considered only if they play half of their club's league games, so that means no Frimpong. And even an under-par Tavernier was still better than the alternatives. Speaking of which, McGowan's tenacity made him a favourite at Hamilton, and he has now joined Killie as a replacement for O'Donnell after the Scotland cap chose to leave for pastures new.


    LEFT-BACK: BORNA BARISIC (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Jake Carroll (Motherwell), Aaron Hickey (Heart of Midlothian)

    In contrast to the other flank, this was an easy pick. After a mediocre first season at Ibrox Barisic lifted his game considerably, offering an attacking threat comparable with that of Tavernier on the other side and proving far more solid defensively. It's a question of when, not if, he moves on to a bigger league. Carroll was the obvious second choice after a good campaign at Fir Park, but otherwise left-back was not a position of strength in the Premiership this season; I've plumped for Hickey as the third name mentioned because at his best he is such a talent, but he still has a lot to learn and had his share of poor games.


    CENTRE-BACKS: KRISTOFFER AJER (CELTIC), JON GUTHRIE (LIVINGSTON)
    Honourable mentions: Christophe Jullien (Celtic), Stuart Findlay (Kilmarnock), Declan Gallagher (Motherwell), Andrew Considine (Aberdeen)

    Ajer continues to develop into a terrific ball-playing centre-back and this may be the summer that he moves down south for big money. Every time I saw Livingston Guthrie was terrific, to the point that they didn't miss Craig Halkett or Declan Gallagher at all. He's a proper body-on-the-line defender, and chipped in with five goals too.

    After a slow start, Jullien was great as long as he wasn't playing against Lyndon Dykes. Findlay had another good season in the Kilmarnock backline, Gallagher continued his Livi form at Motherwell. And Considine, who has just turned 33, might well have had the best season of his career. He played more games at centre-back than left-back (according to transfermarkt, anyway), which is why he is in with this bunch.


    The rest of the lineup will be up in a few days.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 
    View the full article
  18. hislopsoffsideagain
    Yes, I know, it's all a bit half-assed this year. Here's the midfield and forwards. And I explained last week why I don't consider Mohamed Elyounoussi a candidate for this.


    CENTRAL MIDFIELDERS: CALLUM MCGREGOR (CELTIC), ALI MCCANN (ST. JOHNSTONE)
    Honourable mentions: Alex Gogic (Hamilton Academical), Liam Donnelly (Motherwell), Lewis Ferguson (Aberdeen), Marvin Bartley (Livingston)

    McGregor is the easy pick, of course. His form seemed to dip a little when Neil Lennon returned, but this season he was consistently outstanding. I could have picked any of the other five names to play alongside him. Gogic was moved forward from central defence and looks like he's been a holding midfielder forever. Donnelly, previously a left-back, went on a crazy goal streak at the start of the season and whilst the scoring tailed off the performances didn't. Tackling machine Bartley fits in perfectly at the Spaghettihad. And Ferguson was one of Aberdeen's top performers again, though his Young Player Of The Year award should have gone to McCann. The St. Johnstone player just about came out of nowhere to star for them this season, shining even when they struggled early on and then thriving as they turned the season around. It's just a shame the 20 year old seems to have decided his international future lies with Northern Ireland.


    ATTACKING MIDFIELDERS: JAMES FORREST (CELTIC), NIALL MCGINN (ABERDEEN)
    Honourable mentions: Chris Burke (Kilmarnock), Steven Lawless (Livingston), Ryan Christie (Celtic), Liam Polworth (Motherwell)

    Again, one choice was straightforward; Forrest continued being a goal and assist machine for the Champions this season. The other pick was trickier. I ultimately plumped for McGinn, who I thought had lost a yard but instead wound the clock back to 2016 with the quality of his play. It was tempting to go for Burke though, given that the 36 year old was consistently excellent for Kilmarnock. Lawless suffers somewhat for being more of a wing-back which makes it hard for me to shoehorn him in, but he arguably had the best campaign of his career and looks likely to make a decent move this summer. Ryan Christie played well but seemed to be the odd one out whenever Celtic tried to play with two up top. Polworth took his astonishing assist record from the Championship up to the top flight.


    STRIKERS: ODSONNE EDOUARD (CELTIC), ALFREDO MORELOS (RANGERS)
    Honourable mentions: Lyndon Dykes (Livingston), Christian Doidge (Hibernian), Ross Stewart (Ross County), Jermain Defoe (Rangers)

    No surprises here given Edouard was the league's outstanding player and Morelos (at least until January) scored for fun. Dykes proved a nightmare for any defender with his physical yet intelligent play and has plenty of suitors. Doidge made a slow start but improved drastically after Paul Heckingbottom left Hibs. Ross Stewart was a bit of a surprise success for Ross County with his pace and ability in the air. And Jermain Defoe deserves a thought given he hit double figures even though he is ultimately Morelos' backup.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly. 

    View the full article
  19. hislopsoffsideagain
    It is not fair that Hearts, Partick Thistle and Stranraer were relegated from their respective divisions without having played out the full season, nor that as a consequence they face significant financial pressures going forward. They are quite right to legally challenge this decision.

    It is outrageous that there is any question of Dundee United, Raith Rovers and Cove Rangers being denied promotion. It is also outrageous that these clubs are having to fund legal teams of their own to defend this, at considerable cost to them.

    The above statements are both true.

    And that is the problem for Scottish football right now.

    These clubs can all reasonably claim that they are in the right, yet it is impossible to see how an SFA arbitration panel can come up with a solution that isn't catastrophic for either the M8 Alliance (as some papers have dubbed Hearts and Partick) or the East Of Scotland Massive (which absolutely nobody except me is calling Dundee United, Raith and Cove).

    Unless reconstruction is resurrected, of course. But that train has left the station. Arguably, it never arrived.

    Which brings us onto another important point. Reconstruction did not fail because the other clubs were determined to screw Hearts, Partick and Stranraer, or to deny Kelty Hearts and Brora Rangers their shot in the SPFL. It failed because too few clubs were convinced the risk of change was worth taking. I'm not even sure what Ann Budge's plan was in the end - 14-10-10-10? 14-14-14? 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34? (I knew I should have made a bet with someone that I could fit the Fibonacci sequence in a blog) Then there's the uncertainty of promotion and relegation places, whether it was permanent or temporary, plus the sneaky suspicion that if Hamilton Accies or St. Mirren had been bottom nobody would have given the tiniest of s**** about expanding the top flight to save them.

    Clubs acted not out of cruelty, as some blinkered fans suggest. They act, of course, in their own self-interest. That has brought just as much criticism, but what do you expect? They are all businesses, and almost none of them are profitable at the best of times. They can barely deal with certainty; no wonder most ran a mile at the thought of the Budge Plan and the clear unknowns that came with it.

    Ultimately the issue is not the behaviour of the clubs. It is the system that they operate in.

    For example, for reconstruction to pass, the plan needed the support of thirty-two clubs including eleven Premiership ones (out of twelve!), six Championship ones and fifteen from League One and Two. Agreeing to end the season early - a far less debatable decision, whatever some say - required the same level of support and only went through because of the infamous Dundee vote. Carrying a resolution that might upset more than a quarter of clubs is pretty much impossible. Compromise is but a pipe dream.

    As for the Dundee vote, the one boon of this arbitration is that the details of this grisly saga should finally see the light of day. It seems very possible that they and other clubs were offered certain carrots in order to vote for 2019/20 to end early. Were the Dark Blues given assurances of a future friendly in the USA with Celtic? Were they, Hearts and others duped into believing a 14 team top flight was well supported when it was anything but? We'll find out soon enough.

    What I suspect we'll discover is what we already suspect; that the governance of the SPFL is dodgy to say the least, that Doncaster and others relied on unkept promises and/or threats to force things through.

    Unfortunately for Hearts and Partick, 'ethically dubious' and 'illegal' are not the same thing. In the same vein the Dundee vote stinks like a pile of dog poo but it is an oddity of law that in these situations 'no' votes can be changed whereas 'yes' ones cannot. At this point, I think they will most likely lose their case. A close friend who is a solicitor - though not an expert in company law, I might add - suspects the same.

    Instead it will be laid plain for all to see that this is how the SPFL board operates, and has to operate, to get anything actually done. Until this setup changes, we are essentially stuck.

    But in order to change the setup, the SPFL would have to get thirty-two clubs to agree to it. Good fecking luck with that...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  20. hislopsoffsideagain
    In years gone by, I've knocked off individual previews for each top flight club and published them in the days leading up to the new campaign.

    Obviously, this hasn't happened this time around.

    There are reasons for that. These include personal circumstances, a lack of a League Cup group stage to give pointers on how clubs are doing, the fact that the extended transfer window is likely to mean big changes between now and October, and definitely an element of 'I just can't be a***d'.

    However I am honour-bound to make some sort of prediction for how the Premiership is going to go, because I know from past experience that people take great joy from pointing out several months later how completely and gloriously wrong I was.

    So let's take a rather briefer look at the twelve sides, and how I think they'll finish in May,


    FIRST - CELTIC
    This time last year I said Celtic were 100% certain to win the title. By January I was wavering considerably, but I shouldn't have. Providing their new Greek keeper isn't a total haddy they still have the strongest starting lineup and squad in the league by some distance (as they should; their wage budget is still about twice that of Rangers). I'm not the only one who expects Mohamed Elyounoussi to set the heather alight, and holding onto Odsonne Edouard - at least so far - is a massive boost. Their biggest weak spot will be in defence if Kristoffer Ajer goes, but that shouldn't hold them back enough. The bottom line is that missing ten-in-a-row would be a shock and a catastrophe.


    SECOND - RANGERS
    Bear in mind that at lockdown Rangers were still acquitting themselves well in Europe but had won just two of their last six games against domestic opposition. Have they improved much this summer? The back line should be capable but what they really need is the attackers to turn it on. Ianis Hagi showed flashes but will need to perform far more consistently to be worth the faith shown in him. Ditto Ryan Kent who wasn't nearly as good last season as the year before. And if/when Alfredo Morelos leaves, it will leave an enormous hole up front that 37 year old Jermain Defoe can't fill on his own. I just can't see how they can make up the gap to Celtic. Even if they are closer to their rivals, it will be very hard for Steven Gerrard to carry on if he can't win a trophy this season.


    THIRD - MOTHERWELL
    I'm sure Stephen Robinson is a very good coach, but it's recruitment where I think he really excels. Motherwell seem to come into every transfer window with a plan; whilst they lost outstanding keeper Mark Gillespie, they have improved the central defence and lured Jake Hastie back on loan. David Turnbull will be practically a new signing too, given he has barely played in a year. Up front, Tony Watt and Chris Long were forming a fine partnership before Covid and it would be great if this was the year that the former finally lived up to his potential. This is a super squad given the budget they operate on and a repeat of last season's third is perfectly possible.


    FOURTH - HIBERNIAN
    Hibernian have plenty of attacking options now they've added Kevin Nisbet up front and Drey Wright out wide, but they haven't done much about a defence that looked flimsy last season. Keeping Ryan Porteous fit for more than five minutes will help, as will new sitting midfielder Alex Gogic. With Scott Allan and Martin Boyle also providing ammunition and Christian Doidge to take advantage of it, the Hibees should at least be fun to watch, though one suspects consistency will be an issue.


    FIFTH - ABERDEEN
    The lack of transfer activity may be down to financial prudence, or may be because the Dons think there will be bargains to be had in the coming weeks. But at this time an Aberdeen side that seemed to be stagnating last season haven't been freshened up. The loss of Sam Cosgrove to injury is a big blow for a forward line which is otherwise pretty goalshy. Derek McInnes also needs the rest of his midfielders to step up like Lewis Ferguson has, and for other creative players to share Niall McGinn's workload. I'd expect a few new faces in the coming weeks, especially if there is a slow start to the season.


    SIXTH - DUNDEE UNITED
    Micky Mellon has been around the block and should prove a shrewd appointment as manager; even as they strolled to last season's Championship United often looked like they were less than the sum of their parts and there was plenty room for improvement. I'm anxious about their defence, with Mark Reynolds' lack of pace likely to be exposed, and aside from Calum Butcher I'm not hugely convinced by the midfield. But up front Louis Appere is a real prospect, Paul McMullan's pace will worry any full-back and I can't wait to see how Lawrence Shankland does at this level. The momentum from their promotion should take them a long way.


    SEVENTH - ST JOHNSTONE
    I think it's okay to be a bit sceptical about any rookie manager, but to be fair Callum Davidson ticks a lot of boxes and was a logical successor to Tommy Wright. St. Johnstone were a lot better in 2020 than 2019 with their defence decidedly sturdier following the acquisition of Jamie McCart and the emergence of midfielder Ali McCann and striker Callum Hendry. Hendry has the tools to be one of the Premiership's top scorers this season. Other than McCann the midfield is a bit too 'experienced' for my liking and it could all fall apart very quickly if Davidson isn't up to the job but I think they are more likely to be top six than relegated.


    EIGHTH - KILMARNOCK
    Alex Dyer is very much following the Steve Clarke playbook, which is probably a smart move. Killie were still inconsistent even after he replaced Angelo Alessio though and it's no surprise that they have been busy in the transfer market given how thin the squad was. The spine of this side - Stuart Findlay at the back, Gary Dicker and Alan Power in midfield, Eamonn Brophy up top - remains good and the partnership between Brophy and Nicke Kamamba looks promising. It would be great if Greg Kiltie - so good on loan at various Championship clubs - finally got the chance to show what he can do this season.


    NINTH - LIVINGSTON
    It seems inevitable that Lyndon Dykes will go and for that reason alone Livi will find it hard to repeat last year's top six finish. Losing Ricki Lamie and Steven Lawless is also far from ideal but they have still have a decent defence marshalled by Jon Guthrie and Efe Ambrose, and Robby McCrorie will excel in goal. They'll need new boy Matej Poplatnik to fill Dykes' shoes though. Like pretty much everyone else over the last three years, I'm probably underestimating them.


    TENTH - ST. MIRREN
    I actually feel like Jim Goodwin is doing a good job and the Buddies are on an upward trajectory. Goodwin was very successful in the loan market last season and I expect more moves like that in the coming weeks. But they badly need to reduce their dependence on Jonathan Obika up front and they're essentially putting together a brand new defence containing one proven newcomer (Joe Shaughnessy), one on the decline (Richard Tait) and one who has rarely looked up to this level (Marcus Fraser). Hopefully Ryan Flynn and Kyle Magennis will return from injury soon and this should be a breakout year for Cammy MacPherson.


    ELEVENTH - ROSS COUNTY
    County have surely improved their dreadful defence with the signings of Alex Iacovitti and Connor Randall and the arrivals on loan of Stephen Kelly and (in the next few days) Ross Doohan are coups. If one of their strikers can score consistently then this should be a decent squad. The trouble is that left-back still looks like a dodgy position - Carl Tremarco, 35 in a few months, is not the answer - and they have a million midfielders but none who look like sure things at this level. I also remain unconvinced by Stuart Kettlewell as a manager and that alone makes the Staggies look vulnerable.


    TWELFTH - HAMILTON ACADEMICAL
    It's been a few years since I last tipped Accies for the drop, but at the time of writing this does not look like a squad with much quality. They've essentially lost their best keeper (Luke Southwood), best defender (Aaron McGowan), best midfielder (Alex Gogic) and best forward (George Oakley) and are putting their hopes on a player who scored goals in England's seventh tier, a player who wasn't always first choice at Inverness and cast-offs from Livingston, St. Johnstone and Dunfermline. Brian Rice will get the best out of them but I don't believe their best will be sufficient.

    As ever, feel free to point out my spectacular errors come May...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  21. hislopsoffsideagain
    The Scottish Premiership has been back in full flow for sometime, but we're now just a month from the Championship, League One and League Two restarting (though the League Cup begins a week and a half before that). These clubs last played a competitive game in early March, and a lot has happened since then. 
    Here's where the ten Championship clubs are currently at. With the transfer window still open till 5th October and loan restrictions eased there will be plenty of signings at each club in the coming weeks. For more details on transfer moves so far check out the SPFL transfers page.

    ALLOA ATHLETIC
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Parry, Taggart, Graham, Deas, Dick, Cawley, Flannigan, Hetherington, Banks, Trouten, O'Hara

    Peter Grant looks set to follow the template that has previously worked well for both him and predecessor Jim Goodwin: keep the core of the squad together and supplement it with clever loan moves and one or two permanent signings. The snag is that his two best players have left - Kevin O'Hara returns to full-time football with Dunfermline, while the delightful playmaker Iain Flannigan surprisingly chose to retire at age 32. Of the players retained, that ever-reliable backbone is another year older; Andy Graham (36), Liam Buchanan (35) and Alan Trouten (34) cannot go on forever. So far Grant has brought in Hibs winger Innes Murray on loan, along with Nicky Jamieson (who played in League Two last season) and his own son Ray. Expect more new faces, with a further centre-back and striker a must.


    ARBROATH
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Gaston, Thomson, O'Brien, Little, Hamilton, Stewart, Virtanen, Whatley, Linn, Wighton, Donnelly

    See Alloa's plan for success...except Dick Campbell has held onto everyone he wanted to keep, convinced the outstanding Tam O'Brien to sign a new contract, and got the impressive Finn Miko Virtanen back for a second season on loan from Aberdeen with another Don, forward Michael Ruth, in tow. Clearly Premiership managers trust Dick Campbell to develop their players. With a very solid back four, Campbell can concentrate what remaining resources he has on bolstering his midfield and attack. Though Luke Donnelly and Dale Hilson are busy and Kris Doolan and Bobby Linn offer veteran nous, a prolific goalscorer would be a gamechanger.

    AYR UNITED
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Doohan, Houston, Bell, Muirhead, Harvie, Malley, Kelly, Kerr, Forrest, Drinan, Moffat
    This looked likely to be a transitional summer at Somerset Park, given that most of the remaining Ian McCall All-Stars moved on. But instead Mark Kerr has been pretty bold so far, and I'd say that procuring wingers Tom Walsh and Dario Zanatta, defenders Jack Baird and Patrick Reading (who you haven't heard of but has a Scotland under-21 cap) and midfielder Joe Chalmers counts as a statement of intent. The big question marks remain up front - where they'll be looking for a better option than Craig Moore or 35 year old Michael Moffat - and between the sticks, with perennial backup Ellis Hare-Reid the only goalie under contract at the time of writing. Kerr made excellent use of the English loan market in January and expect more of that in the coming weeks.

    DUNDEE
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Hazard, Kerr, Berra, McGhee, Marshall, Elliott, Byrne, McGowan, Dorrans, McDaid, Hemmings

    It's been an eventful few months at Dens Park. First there was the bizarre no-then-yes vote to ending the season (for motives that remain unclear). That was followed by staff redundancies and player wage-cuts, with striker Kane Hemmings refusing the pay cut...then agreeing to it...then cancelling his contract after all. And now we have Charlie Adam rocking up at the club he left seventeen years ago for a last hurrah. With Graham Dorrans and Paul McGowan already at the club they will not be short of midfield creativity, but it'll be interesting to see how McPake fits them all into the team, and who will do the leg work for the trio of veterans. We'll also find out if the manager has learned from his difficult rookie year in the dugout and can at least make his lineup equal to the sum of its parts on a consistent basis. Even though Hemmings and Andrew Nelson have left, replacements Alex Jakubiak and Danny Mullen should offer more than enough quality up top (then again, we said the same about Hemmings, Nelson and Danny Johnson last year). And the defence and midfield should be good enough on paper - though the thought of Jack Hamilton being first choice goalkeeper will give Dundee fans the boak.

    DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Fon Williams, Comrie, Ashcroft, Martin, Murray, Dow, Ross, Paton, Thomas, Nisbet, Afolabi
    The summer began with a lot of pessimistic noises coming out of East End Park about budget cuts and player releases, segued into a nice windfall from selling Kevin Nisbet to Hibs, and finished up with significant investment in the club from Germany. The club has stressed that there won't be significant cash-splashing but one would assume the new investors have plans for bringing in players (and at least stretching the club's scouting network beyond Kirkcaldy). Meanwhile Stevie Crawford has already tied up goalkeeper Owain Fon Williams and winger Dom Thomas after brief but impressive loan spells pre-Covid, and with Nisbet gone he'll be looking to Declan McManus (returning for his second spell at the club) and Kevin O'Hara (a rather controversial signing given his ban a few years ago for taunting Dean Shiels about his eyesight) for goals. I also have high hopes for ex-Killie midfielder Iain Wilson. However the Pars' squad may look quite different come the end of the window...


    GREENOCK MORTON
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Rogers, Tumilty, McGinty, Baird, Strapp, Nesbitt, Jacobs, McAlister, Cadden, Orsi, McHugh
    Morton have been very bullish publicly about how they feel things are going under David Hopkin, but unless there's a lot of business still to come the current window feels like a costcutting one. It was no surprise to see Nicky Cadden leave but he was excellent last season and it's still a massive blow. One suspects Hopkin might have wanted to keep John Baird and Reghan Tumilty for this season, while Bob McHugh chose to leave for Ray McKinnon's Queen's Park project. So far the only signings are the returning Gary Oliver and Elgin wideman Rabin Omar. So that means currently the club have no senior goalkeeper, no right-back and just one out-and-out centre forward. Not ideal.


    HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Zlamal, Clare, M. Smith, Halkett, Souttar, Hickey, Bozanic, Haring, Walker, Naismith, Boyce
    Hearts' hopes of a relegation reprieve came to nothing in the end but it would be a shock if their absence from the Premiership lasted beyond this campaign. New boss Robbie Neilson certainly has an affinity for this division, having won it twice before (including last season with Dundee United). And even though they have moved on about a gazillion players - some of whom they probably wished they could keep - this squad was already probably strong enough to walk this league before Neilson started adding to it. Craig Gordon will surely be an upgrade in goal, while he's brought in three wide players - Jordan Roberts, Josh Ginnelly and Elliott Frear - to improve a real area of weakness. Aaron Hickey's imminent exit and John Souttar's injury hurt the defence but - if Christophe Berra is still up to it - the Jambos should have plenty of cover there. And that strike force of Liam Boyce and Steven Naismith should score for fun.


    INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Ridgers, Rooney, Toshney, McKay, Tremarco, Vincent, Welsh, Walsh, Keatings, Doran, White
    John Robertson recently lamented that every year seemed to be a rebuilding year. With four first choice players and midfielder Charlie Trafford away, along with the two centre-backs he lost in January, it'll be hard to keep Caley Thistle 'best of the rest'. Whether they have the cash to find replacements is unclear - last year there were concerns re their finances and they kept their players on furlough longer than most but the club have spoken positively about where they are going forward. That said, Robbo's claim that ex-Elgin forward Shane Sutherland could score 15 goals seems very optimistic indeed. The club have high hopes than youngster Cameron Harper can fill the Carl Tremarco-shaped hole at left-back and Robbie Deas could be the next Jamie McCart, but the other defensive options (Lewis Toshney, Brad McKay, Danny Devine) look dicey and they still don't have a natural right-back. Robertson has previously plucked players from the English lower leagues and I'd expect a few signings from that market in the coming weeks.


    QUEEN OF THE SOUTH
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Stewart, Mercer, Kilday, Ledger, Holt, Murray, Pybus, Osman, Wilson, Oliver, Dobbie
    As of May, the Doonhamers had just three players under contract - Stephen Dobbie (who will be 38 in December), Kevin Holt and backup goalie Jack Leighfield. Dan Pybus has subsequently signed on again but Holt has left for Cyprus so Allan Johnston has a huge task on his hands. It's got to the point that 36 year old reserve coach Wullie Gibson - who hasn't played at this level in five years or at all since November 2019 - has signed a playing contract. Loan signing Aidan Fitzpatrick looks like a good addition and Joe McKee deserves another shot at the Championship, but one feels it'll take a lot of work to get QOS up to standard. And bear in mind that last season was halted with them only two points above bottom spot, having played a game more than Partick Thistle and having picked up three points out of thirty.


    RAITH ROVERS
    STRONGEST XI AT END OF LAST SEASON (departed players crossed out): Munro, Miller, Anderson, Davidson, Benedictus, MacDonald, Matthews, Hendry, Spencer, MacLean, Bowie
    Newly promoted sides are always competitive in this league and Raith will be no exception. John McGlynn has been quick to strengthen his weak areas with Jamie MacDonald joining in goal and Reghan Tumilty at right-back. His other signings so far are from down south with Gozie Ugwu, who scored 15 goals in the National League last season, an intriguing addition up front. If Lewis Vaughan can successfully return from a third ACL rupture then Rovers will be very dangerous.


    If you were to ask me to predict the outcome of the season right now I'd say...there's no chance I'm going to fall for that. The shortened season makes things far less clear-cut and as stated above squads may look very different come early October.
    Then I'd say "Oh, and Hearts are going to walk it..."

    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.
    View the full article
  22. hislopsoffsideagain
    It's no secret that the Covid pandemic has hit football clubs hard. With fans unable to attend games, income is down and chairmen are having to be very frugal indeed.


    Except at Queen's Park.


    Having decided that they could no longer continue as amateurs, they have decided that, if they're going to have to pay players, then they're going to pay them. So the squad is filled with folk who were playing full-time last season, some of whom - Bob McHugh and Lee Kilday, for example - were regulars in the Championship. Most remarkably they've signed Simon Murray, the former Dundee United and Hibs forward who returns from two years in South Africa. Anything other than the title for the Spiders and manager Ray McKinnon would be a catastrophe.


    Their closest rivals are most likely to be forever-bridesmaids Edinburgh City, who were promotion challengers in each of the last two seasons and have kept together a squad that includes prolific striker Blair Henderson, fellow attackers Danny Handling and Alex Harris and seasoned defender Conrad Balatoni. Wideman Danny Jardine looks like a good signing from Stirling too. Expect them to be up there but they may yet again lose out to a side with even more megabucks than they do (Cove last year, Peterhead the year before).


    After that duo, it's hard to say who might be the third-best side in this division; however one would assume that as the side who have dropped down from League One, Stranraer will have aspirations of at least making the promotion playoffs. They stood behind boss Stevie Farrell despite relegation and shouldn't be short of goals with Joao Victoria and veteran Darryl Duffy up top and Andy Stirling providing ammunition. Certainly they should not emulate previous relegated clubs such as Cowdenbeath, Albion Rovers and Brechin by slumping straight to the bottom end of this tier too.


    Elgin City were third in the table when the action was halted in the Spring, and their manager Gavin Price has concentrated on keeping together as much of that squad as possible. But they lost star striker Shane Sutherland and winger Rabin Omar to Championship sides and have been remarkably quiet on the signings front so far. It will be hard for them to emulate last season's success, even though Conor O'Keefe, Kane Hester and Smart Osadolor provide plenty of quality.


    Cowdenbeath, who were fourth when play stopped, have also chosen to mostly stick rather than twist, but will miss the departed Jordan Allan and Archie Thomas. Like any Gary Bollan side they will be tough to break down - not least with the legendary Craig Mango Barr in the backline - but goals may prove tough to come by unless loan striker Olly Hamilton proves an astute signing.


    Amongst those with genuine promotion playoff aspirations are Stirling Albion, who stood by manager Kevin Rutkiewicz after a poor start to last season and whose 2020 form was pretty decent. They've backed their boss well with striker Andy Ryan joining from Dunfermline and midfielder Jack Leitch from Peterhead. Certainly the club will be expecting an improvement on last season's sixth spot.


    Stenhousemuir, who had a rough first half of 2019/20 but seemed to have finally turned the corner just before lockdown, look intriguing. Manager Davie Irons has been well backed and has essentially revamped the squad since his arrival early last season. Defender Creag Little and midfielder Callum Tapping look the pick of the bunch that have pitched up this summer, joining a squad that contains former Falkirk and Swansea City prospects Ryan Blair and Botti Biabi and seasoned strikers Mark McGuigan and Greig Spence.


    It seems like every season Annan Athletic lose most of their best players to other clubs, yet Peter Murphy still finds a way of putting out a competitive team. Can he do the same this year? Getting forward Aidan Smith back after a year away at Peterhead will give them a boost, while Jack Purdue and Aaron Splaine could improve their midfield. But it could be tough to keep those standards up.


    There was also considerable turnover at Albion Rovers, including in the dugout where Brian Reid has replaced Kevin Harper. Reid has a young squad aside from Paul Cairney, who has come out of retirement, and relying on youths such as Finn Ecrepont and Scott Glover at the back feels like a high-risk, high-reward strategy. Midfielder Callum Wilson was highly-rated a few years ago at Partick and has the chance to jumpstart his career.


    And lastly, Brechin City got to avoid an inevitable relegation playoff after the last campaign ended early. Can they avoid such a fate this time around? Two heavy League Cup beatings - albeit to top flight opponents - suggest that manager Mark Wilson still has his work cut out, even though new signings such as Rory Currie, Michael Paton and Connor Coupe should do very well at this level. At the time of writing Wilson has won 3 out of 26 matches in charge of Brechin and unless something changes there those iconic hedges may drop out of the SPFL.


    So my (inevitably wrong) prediction for how the season will finish:
    1. QUEEN'S PARK


    2. EDINBURGH CITY
    3. STENHOUSEMUIR
    4. STRANRAER


    5. STIRLING ALBION
    6. ELGIN CITY
    7. COWDENBEATH
    8. ALBION ROVERS

    9. ANNAN ATHLETIC


    10. BRECHIN CITY


    Feel free to bookmark this to point out my mistakes come May...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  23. hislopsoffsideagain
    To be blunt, League One should be a two horse race.


    That's not being harsh on the other eight clubs; there are plenty of dangerous teams and quality players elsewhere in this division. But Falkirk and Partick Thistle have so much more to throw at this league than any of the others. As Ray McKinnon discovered at the former last season, struggling to make the top two is not an option.


    David McCracken and Lee Miller have been the Bairns' co-management team since November 2019 and were unbeaten in the league between then and lockdown. That record surely won't last, but given they've been able to sign Blair Alston - Blair Alston! - Aidan Keena, Callumn Morrison and Scott Mercer to play in League One they have every right to fancy their chances.


    The problem for them is that like last year with Raith Rovers, they aren't the only big fish in this pond. Ian McCall has won at this level before with Ayr United and will feel he can repeat that feat with a Thistle squad that retained impressive strikers Zak Rudden and Brian Graham and quality midfielders Stuart Bannigan, Shea Gordon and Joe Cardle. A defence containing Thomas O'Ware, Darren Brownlie and newbie Ciaran McKenna should be solid enough and the arrival of Salim Kouider-Aissa and Blair Spittal on loan means depth shouldn't be a problem.


    Airdrie are the other full-time(ish) club which should mean they are the best bet for third spot. Griffin Sabatini (an Argentinian loaned from a Ukrainian club, as you do) and Thomas Robert (son of Laurent) are surely the most curious signings in the SPFL this summer but they have held onto most of the squad that had got into the playoff places last season. Manager Ian Murray has plenty of quality up front with Calum Gallagher, Dale Carrick, Ally Roy, Eoghan Stokes and Kyle Connell so how far they can go will depend on how well they defend.


    Montrose again did an amazing job of punching above their weight last season - apparently the reason that esteemed boss Stewart Petrie hasn't gone on to better things is that he has a plush day job - and have performed the remarkable feat of not losing a  single senior player from last season (other than loanees going back to parent clubs). The return of Blair Lyons to Partick is somewhat offset by the homecoming of Martin Rennie, and this experienced, well-coached and well-drilled bunch will again look to put 'bigger' clubs to shame.


    Further north, Cove Rangers are not simply aiming to make up the numbers in the third tier after two consecutive promotions. Paul Hartley's side are ambitious, signing Motherwell duo Adam Livingstone and Jamie Semple (on loan) and bringing Leighton McIntosh back to Scotland. Of course, Fraser Fyvie, Mitch Megginson and Rory McAllister are still here too. It would surprise few people if they ended up closer to the top than the bottom.


    East Fife have finished between fifth and seventh in four straight seasons but it seems like Darren Young's job is getting harder every year. Highly-rated striker Anton Dowds has moved onto full-time football but that may be offset by the loan signing of Livingston's Jack Hamilton. Veteran Danny Swanson should have enough nous to shine in the third tier and joins an already experienced bunch that includes Chris Higgins and Stewart Murdoch at the back and blogger extraordinaire Danny Denholm on the wing.


    In contrast Clyde clearly aim to push on in their second season back in League One. Bringing back defender Tom Lang and midfielder Ross Cunningham permanently looks like a coup for a team that will always be dangerous as long as David Goodwillie is up front. He scored twenty league goals last season but no-one else managed more than two. Whilst there has been a lack of attacking reinforcements, Lang, Jamie Bain and Matthew Shiels should strengthen the backline.


    It was a tumultous offseason at Dumbarton, where Jim Duffy had a heart attack in June (he has thankfully recovered) and budget decisions were put off longer than most. That meant the exit of regulars like Joe McKee and Kyle Hutton, but they still have Ross Forbes pulling the strings and he now has Denny Johnstone leading the line in front of him. Getting Sam Wardrop back permanently at right-back was a boost and young Hearts defender Chris Hamilton could do very well on loan.


    Arguably Peterhead had the trickiest summer of the lot; a club that in the past offered better part-time wages than most found themselves being gazumped somewhat by others; a number of players left for League Two or ambitious Lowland League sides instead. Evergreen centre-back Gary McKenzie and forward Isaac Layne are the names that stand out amongst the new boys, while they have taken a chance on futsal star Derryn Kesson and will need big contributions from young loan players from the Dundee clubs.


    And finally Forfar Athletic have been super busy in the last few months as Stuart Malcolm looks to put his stamp on a squad he inherited in November. The pick of the twelve new signings are midfielder Mark Hill, ex-St Johnstone skipper Steven Anderson and attacking trio Jordan Allan, Archie Thomas and Scott Shepherd who step up from League Two. Malcolm will hope that he can prove his success in charge of East Kilbride was no fluke.


    So here's my (inevitably wrong) prediction of how the table will finish:
    1. PARTICK THISTLE


    2. FALKIRK
    3. AIRDRIE
    4. COVE RANGERS


    5. MONTROSE
    6. CLYDE
    7. FORFAR ATHLETIC
    8. DUMBARTON


    9. EAST FIFE


    10. PETERHEAD


    Make sure you take a screenshot so you can remind me of this in May...


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  24. hislopsoffsideagain
    I did kinda already look at the Championship sides a month ago.


    What's changed? Not a lot.


    Hearts should stroll this. Even if their entire starting XI were ruled out with Covid the next eleven players up would still be stronger than everyone else. There has been a worrying hint of the same trait that dogged Robbie Neilson's Dundee United team last season - doing just enough to win and not a lot else, rather than blowing away opponents - but if that's the most negative thing I can come up with then you can tell they must be good. Craig Gordon at the back, Stephen Kingsley, Craig Halkett and Michael Smith in the defence, Peter Haring and Jamie Walker in the midfield, Liam Boyce up front; no-one else should even be in the same postcode by May.


    Simply going by budget, Dundee should be the best of the rest. Too often last season they looked limited by the tactics (or lack of) used by rookie manager James McPake. Either he has to improve, or new signings like marquee man Charlie Adam and the 150,000 (give or take a few) forwards they've brought in need to overcome his deficiencies. I got slaughtered on Twitter for claiming that the club had no obvious recruitment plan, but the fact remains that a team intent on playing a back three has only three centre-backs on the books, and whilst Adam, Graham Dorrans and Paul McGowan will make pretty passing patterns when they have the ball, who is going to do the running?


    As for the rest, I think it's anyone's guess. Inverness Caledonian Thistle were second when play stopped in March but they've lost lots of first choice players and now have a completely different back four from the one that they could deploy as recently as December. Players like Robbie Deas and Wallace Duffy are the sort of talented youngster and reclamation projects respectively that have done well under John Robertson in recent years, but for a team whose defence was a strength in recent years they don't half look vulnerable there now. At the other end it's not clear who will get the goals, or even who will start up top: Nikolay Todorov as the replacement for fellow target-man Jordan White, or pacey Miles Storey in a complete change of style? They'll hope on loan Rangers winger Kai Kennedy can be a wild card. This team could finish top three again, but there could also be a 'Peter Houston at Falkirk' sort of collapse.


    If ICT are weakened, so you could argue that most of the other full-time clubs are in the same situation. Dunfermline Athletic's new German investors haven't found them any players from the continent yet, but their finance is probably why things look a lot better than when they butchered the playing staff in May. Kevin Nisbet will be irreplaceable but Stevie Crawford has done his best to plug the gap with Ross County's Declan McManus and Kevin O'Hara who was super for Alloa last year. Tying up winger Dom Thomas on a permanent deal was a great move too. All in all, they've probably managed to come up with a squad close to the level of last year's, which is no mean feat in the circumstances.


    Ayr United's strategy has been to try and amass as much talent in their starting eleven at the possible expense of depth, So whilst newbies such as Patrick Reading and Jack Baird in defence, Joe Chalmers and Michael Miller in midfield, Tom Walsh and Dario Zanatta out wide and Bruce Anderson up front look like terrific signings there isn't a huge amount on the bench especially now Craig Moore is out long term.  If everyone else stays fit I think they could do really well; if the injury bug bites they could be in a hell of a lot of trouble.


    Greenock Morton are very bullish about manager David Hopkin's ability to build a team, and they will need him to live up to that billing. They lost their most dangerous creator, Nicky Cadden, and too many players - Aiden Nesbitt, Robbie Muirhead, Craig McGuffie and Gary Oliver spring to mind - have yet to live up to their potential. This could however be the perfect place for loanee Josh McPake to kick on and watch out for left-back Lewis Strapp developing into one of this division's best players this season.


    If I was to pick a dark horse though it would be Raith Rovers. Newly promoted sides tend to have few problems making the step up and it's not long since Livingston managed back-to-back promotions. The additions that John McGlynn has made have been astute and focussed at the side's weaknesses. Manny Duku already looks impressive up front and if Lewis Vaughan can stay fit they should be really dangerous up top. Regan Hendry should establish himself as one of this level's pre-eminent midfield players and having the experienced Jamie MacDonald between the sticks will do them no harm too. I certainly don't see them in a relegation battle.


    Queen of the South, in contrast...their early League Cup results were far better than I anticipated but the fact remains that but a handful of players remain from last season, Stephen Dobbie will be 38 in December and they really will rely on Wullie Gibson, who is 36 and hasn't played at this level for five years, to contribute. On the positive side Joe McKee deserves one more crack at full-time footie and Aidan Fitzpatrick is an exciting loan signing from Norwich. But QOS were on the slide back in March and will need yet more Dobbie miracles to avoid a dogfight at the bottom.


    I've left the part-timers to last for good reason, and that's not because I think they'll be bottom. Arbroath in particular are an intriguing prospect. Dick Campbell has kept together his solid backbone and once more augmented it with loan players - what on earth is Miko Virtanen doing playing at this level for another season? If one of their strikers can score regularly - probably either Luke Donnelly or Michael Ruth - then they could spring many a surprise.


    As for Alloa Athletic, I'm tired of getting slagged off by @AlloaStats at the end of every season for having predicted they'll go down. The news that Iain Flannigan had retired might have tempted me to do so again - hey, even a stopped clock is right twice a day - but incredibly they managed to replace him with Stefan Scougall. If Edin Lynch can fill the CB slot vacated by Robbie Deas, they'll do fine.


    So here's my inevitably wrong predicted table:


    1. HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN


    2. DUNDEE
    3. AYR UNITED
    4. RAITH ROVERS


    5. DUNFERMLINE ATHLETIC
    6. INVERNESS CALEDONIAN THISTLE
    7. ARBROATH
    8. GREENOCK MORTON


    9. ALLOA ATHLETIC


    10. QUEEN OF THE SOUTH


    Feel free to bookmark this to use against me in May (I'm sure @AlloaStats will...)


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
  25. hislopsoffsideagain
    The last time Celtic lost three consecutive home matches, Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister, Kylie Minogue was at number one with 'Tears On My Pillow' (no, I've never heard of it either) and Rangers were on their way to Two In A Row.


    Admittedly in the subsequent thirty years there won't have been many times when Celtic played back-to-back-to-back games at Celtic Park against teams of the quality of Rangers, Milan and, um, Sparta Prague, but still.


    How has it come to this?


    Yes, Rangers have improved. We're yet to find out whether yet another post-New Year slump will derail their title push, but it would obviously be foolish for Celtic fans to pin their hopes on that. Steven Gerrard's side are playing with confidence and no little skill. It's worth remembering at this point that, for all the spending down Govan way, Rangers' budget is still way behind Celtic's. For them to be so superior at this point is quite startling...and the way they are going about it is also exposing Celtic's problems for all to see.


    The bottom line is that Rangers have a plan, and Gerrard's squad has been built with it in mind. In contrast, if Celtic's grand strategy for 2020-21 was all about the switch to three-at-the-back, it made no sense to this blogger. Playing three central defenders in the Premiership against teams who sit back and soaked up pressure just unnecessarily robs the team of an attacking or creative player...even more so given Lennon's insistence on deploying Scott Brown at the base of midfield as well.  In Mohamed Elyounoussi, James Forrest and Mikey Johnston they have three wide players who don't obviously fit into that system, though the injuries to the latter two have made this less of an issue than it might have been. Ditto the more natural number tens like Ryan Christie and Tom Rogic.


    The Shane Duffy factor has been thoroughly dissected elsewhere, but the bottom line is that this is not a player that fits what Celtic need in central defence - either in a back three or a back four - in the slightest. Duffy is not a bad player, but his weaknesses are woefully exposed and his qualities are rarely on show in this situation. It is a failure of recruitment. 


    And it isn't the first one. Celtic have signed three left-backs in fifteen months. Greg Taylor and Boli Bolingoli cost £3million each and whilst Kieran Tierney's shoes were always going to be impossible to fill the bottom line is neither player can hold a torch to Rangers' Borna Barisic. Nor were they especially well suited to playing as a wing-back; ironically, as soon as Lennon signed a player tailor-made for the left wing-back role - Diego Laxalt - he reverted back to a back four which currently makes Laxalt look very uncomfortable.


    Meanwhile, the list of players currently out on loan and with no future at the club includes Bolingoli, Vakoun Issouf Bayo, Jack Hendry and Maryan Shved. It's not clear who is leading transfer policy at Celtic, but it does seem that folk are not all on the same page.


    As for the coach himself, it is increasingly tempting to wonder whether Lennon's first spell at Celtic Park was really all that. After all, his three league titles came when the closest opposition were a Rangers side on the brink of liquidation, Motherwell and Motherwell respectively; to be frank Celtic would have won those leagues with you, or me, or even Ronny Deila in charge. In continental competition, take away Tony Watt's goal against Barcelona - bear in mind that Celtic, with 11% possession, rather rode their luck that day - and results were not impressive; they finished rock bottom of their Champions League group in 2013-14 after nearly losing in the qualifiers to Shakhtar Karagandy, while they missed out on both the Champions League and Europa League groups in 2010-11 and only got into the Europa League groups the following year after Sion were disqualified.


    His return in early 2019 as a stopgap made a fair bit of sense given Brendan Rodgers' sudden departure, but in truth the team's form for the rest of that season was hardly all that and they huffed and puffed their way past a pretty putrid Hearts side in the Scottish Cup Final. It was not a performance that justified offering Lennon the job permanently after the match, but it was the romantic option and perhaps the easy one too. It was probably cheaper also in terms of wages, but it could be argued that the European qualifying failures of this season and last have made appointing him very expensive indeed for the club.


    The fact is that since Rodgers left Celtic have largely coasted, as if they feel they are untouchable. In fact, 'stagnated' may be a more appropriate term. On the pitch, there is very little sign of tactical imagination. The formation may have changed recently but in the final third the strategy seems the same; to rely for moments of individual brilliance to unlock defences. It's worth noting that both they and Rangers have endured their star player and talismanic striker suffering a collapse in form this season. Rangers have barely missed a beat despite Alfredo Morelos' struggles; Celtic simply do not look the same without a potent Odsonne Edouard.


    Edouard isn't the only one out of sorts. After the Sparta game, Lennon didn't hold back. He accused the players of being 'lazy' of 'lack of application', 'lack of hunger' and suggested they weren't working hard enough in training and that there was a need for a 'culture change'. The obvious elephant in the room there is the question of who is responsible for working them in training. After all there is precious little evidence during matches that they have worked on anything particularly intricate tactically. Heck, back in August Kieran Devlin at The Athletic reported that a number of players employed their own fitness coaches because they were unsatisfied at what the club was offering.


    There's still time to turn this around - two-thirds of the season in fact. And the Celtic squad has more than enough quality to do so. But it is fair to say we have reached the point where you'd be surprised if Neil Lennon was still in charge by the end of the season. And it's also fair to note that if you're going to change manager, an international break - like the one coming up next week - would seem like the least painful time to do it. Do they take the plunge and sack a manager for the first time since Tony Mowbray? The fate of their Ten In A Row dream may well depend on what decision they make.


    Lawrie Spence has whinged about Scottish football on Narey's Toepoker since September 2007. He has a life outside this blog. Honestly.

    View the full article
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. : Terms of Use : Guidelines : Privacy Policy