Sneckboy

Wed 24th Feb
Highland League Cup - last 16
Stuart Soane TWO GOALS (Forres Mechanics 5-1 Fort William)
*on-loan, current ICT U20 player, Stephen Rennie, scored for Fort William.

1 hour ago, RedCard said:

did the trialist play?

I'd have to say no - as I saw our line-up on Motherwell's Twitter. Our starting 11 and 4 subs were all our own players. No unfamiliar names or 'trialist' listed!

I applaud your intentions, DEANO96, with your posts and enthusiasm - and I don't want to moan - but....at 20 years-old, you weren't born when the merger happened!
I'm also not suggesting you can't have an opinion on it, but you've only ever known ICT as a club...and I can understand it must be boring and frustrating to hear us 'oldies' referring to it!

Obviously, football existed before that. For many of us, brought up visiting both Telford Street and Kingsmills, it still is, and will always be, a sore point.
One cannot lose their affiliation to the club they initially supported - and I'm sure you'd still fondly recollect Inverness Caledonian Thistle if they were part of a Highland United FC in future years, and It would be illogical to discount ICTs achievements (pre-Highland United merger) as having no significance to you.
You must respect that supporting Inverness Thistle or Caledonian was a major aspect of 'our' growing up and was part of one's identity, in a then, much-smaller Inverness.

Granted, some have embraced the club as simply 'Inverness' - but for others. it remains a 'waste' of two historic clubs, regardless of the success of the merged team.
An opportunity arose; and the time was ripe to 'go for it' - a single Inverness club was always going to be successful with an application in the then climate.

But in a relatively small time-scale, since the clubs merged, the goalposts have moved.
Any team can now progress on merit. I've no doubt that Caledonian and Inverness Thistle would both eventually, individually, have made it into the SPFL. 
Just gutting!

Tues 23rd Feb
League One
Andy Barrowman (Albion Rovers 4-1 Brechin City)

English League Two
Alex MacDonald (Exeter City 1-4 Oxford United)

I didn't realise he was on loan at Strathspey. He'll certainly get plenty goalkeeping practice there!
These are good opportunites for the young players, playing Highland League at the weekend, while still being eligible for the Inverness CT Development League games mid-week. Indeed, he was playing today against Motherwell.

Dundee 5-0 Dumbarton

Quarter-finals:
Rangers v Dundee (Sat 5th March, 12.30pm)
Ross County v Dundee United (Sat 5th March, 3pm)
Celtic v Morton (Sun 6th March, 12pm)
Hibernian v Inverness Caley Thistle (Sun 6th March, 2pm)

Philip Roberts yesterday signed for Irish club Sligo Rovers. He's been without a team since being released by Dundee.
http://www.goal.com/en-ie/news/3909/airtricity-premier-division/2016/02/22/20610292/former-arsenal-youth-philip-roberts-joins-sligo-rovers

2 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

Predictably, they're at it again......

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35625067

Aye! Surprise, surprise!
Make's Alex's opening salvo of a 'plea' to 'leave the SNP out of this' look a little naïve!
Of course those opportunists (SNP) will use this to their advantage!

I imagine they'll (SNP) return a crushing majority win in May's elections - but ultimately be disappointed the following month when the UK agrees to stay within the EU, foiling their 'backdoor' attempt at forcing another Independence referendum, which nobody with a sense of democracy would welcome, anyway. The door slammed on that in 2014.

From there, the UK agreement to 'stay', we'll see a gradual return to the status-quo with former Labour voters returning-to-their-roots - and a gradual diminishment in support for the disillusioned Nats, who'll slip to a fringe role in the opposition at Holyrood.

Happily, folk are starting to see through them. Councils are being starved of money...Highland Council (for example) are laying-off folk and are having to make draconian cuts.
They simply don't have the money! Any attempt to raise more money for the good folk of Inverness and the Highlands would be going against SNP austerity mantra and the Council would subject to sanctions, including a crippling fine.
The SNP like to think that a year-on-year Council Tax freeze is a vote winner! For some it may be! But, the Highland Council is hamstrung. It simply can't operate on it's budget without enforced cost-saving cuts.
It's really starving towns like Inverness... and preventing us from providing adequate, or better public services!

Game tomorrow at Airdrie's ground v Motherwell (2pm).

Just had a look at the table and am surprised to see us second-bottom - last time I looked we were in 7th!
However, It's extremely tight between 6-16th place. http://spfl.co.uk/development-league/dev-fixtures/
Certainly, It's been a lot better, as hoped for, in this campaign. Last season we were last with just 23 points. As the table shows, we've already got 22 points, with 11 fixtures still to play. But, as always, it's questionable how 'important' actual results are in this league.

Incidentally, it was good to see one of the Development boys on the bench at Parkhead - Blair MacLennan...obviously he was unlikely to be 'used' but still a great experience for the guy - and I'd imagine, hugely motivational!

Heart-breaking!
He's actually getting more of a 'look in' than I expected this season, after signing.
But, he bagged a couple of goals last week in Celtic's Development League game and is proving too good to 'over look'.
I think he'll establish himself as a first-team pick next season.

Ross County v Dundee United is the least likely tie to be televised. Yet, ironically, it's the 'stands out tie' of the round!
But Premiership v Premiership comes below Premiership v Championship when the Ugly Sisters are sniffing about!

1 hour ago, Yngwie said:

Same as it was one night 16 years ago?!

Yeah, I was going to say the same! It was indeed 14/1 back then!
This must be worth a 'flutter' though! - as it's very unusual to see such odds between teams in the same league...

The biggest odds I've seen 'happening' in a Scottish fixture was with Clyde beating Celtic in the cup a few years after our 'shock' (the Roy Kean debut match!!!).
But, strangely (and happily) it's not flagged-up as often as our 3-1 win, as one of the great shocks, although Clyde were 16/1 on the day, and had even been widely available at 18/1 earlier in the week.

The biggest 'over-turned' odds I've seen in football was when an apparently utterly dismal Northern Ireland side over-turned an apparently world-beating England team in Belfast, 1-0, thanks to a late winner from Healy! That was certainly 18/1 on the night but could have been 'got' at 25/1 in earlier markets.

Anybody know of any bigger 'odds defying' shocks, particularly in football?
Buster Douglas beating Tyson was widely reputed (most commonly quoted odds)  to have been 42/1 !!!

Today's Inverness Courier suggests that David Raven will miss the game tomorrow, through injury.
The latest SFA suspension list indicates that Ross Draper will miss our league game at Hearts 1st March. (officially, the first league game after 29th February)
Incidentally, from that same list, I noticed I'd made an error by previously stating (on another thread) that Andrea Mutombo would be suspended for our quarter-final cup tie.
I wrongly thought he'd 'picked' up two bookings in the competition, but happily, it's just one - so he's eligible for the Hibs game.

I notice too, that they've scored in all but 1 of their 15 home games this season - only failing to net against Inverness CT!
http://www.soccerbase.com/teams/team.sd?team_id=3207&teamTabs=results

It's gone now for Dundee United! (in terms of survival!) I can see no way back for them - relegation!

Have checked the 'stats' and no Scottish club has ever been relegated and still won the Cup in the same season!
Wigan Athletic were the first team to do it in England - and that was just a few seasons ago - but it's never happened in Scotland...

However, It wouldn't be a shock to see them turning-over County in Dingwall, but I just can't see them then going and winning another two games to lift the Cup.

Hibernian in the Cup? We've played them just once before... in the 2008 Cup (Also at Easter Road, but that was 'only' in the last 32). This is much bigger!

We lost 3-0 that day! BBC report http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/scot_cups/7181084.stm
Although not mentioned in the report, I've a recollection that Marius Niculae missed a penalty? Or am I confusing that with another game?
Anyway, I think we can beat them, BUT...I'd happily take a replay - they've a dreadful record 'up here'!

A wee stat:
Iain Vigurs equalising goal was the 100th goal between the clubs, all-time. (now 102 goals)
Leading scorer is wee Billy with 6.  Adam Rooney 'closing-in' with 5. (2 for Inverness; 3 for Aberdeen)

I had a Hard-Drive failure last week, losing 2 months of data - so am 're-building', as-and-when. Another harsh, painful lesson though...
Anyway, the 'North Derby' stats are now updated - here's the full list of 102 goals form anybody interested!
Some 'blasts-from-the-past' here!

7 minutes ago, ictchris said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see both Old Firm games televised on different days.

LOL! Don't go there!
Next week, I'd ordinarily be hoping Dumbarton beat Dundee, as I like to see the 'underdog' coming through, plus it would be another Premiership club eliminated and out-of-our-way!
BUT, on this occasion, I want Dundee to win, as I genuinely think they could go to Ibrox and give Rangers real problems...certainly more so than Dumbarton.
Rangers v Dundee has a lot more appeal than Rangers v Dumbarton. I wonder if the TV companies will wait for the outcome before 'committing themselves'?
The quarter-finals games aren't far-off (just 17 days away), so hopefully we'll hear something soon - fans have to make plans!

29 minutes ago, Alex MacLeod said:

No reason why Stokes wouldn't be playing

I agree! They must have made an error on Sportsound.
He's clearly eligible, as he featured for Hibs last night - and he obviously isn't cup-tied. Granted, he's on one booking for the competition, but he'd need another yellow card to be suspended. So, unless we hear otherwise, we should assume Stokes is available for the quarter-final.

I'm in agreement with Yngwie's anticipated TV games...I think it'll be our match plus Rangers v Dundee/Dumbarton.
Certainly, one of the Glasgow games will be switched anyway, for policing and logistical reasons - so will almost certainly be a Sunday TV game.

Hibernian 1-0 Hearts
Kilmarnock 1-2 Rangers

(Tuesday 23rd Feb - 19:45)
Dundee v Dumbarton

Quarter-finals (currently 5th March - 15:00):
Celtic v Morton
Hibernian v Inverness Caley Thistle
Rangers v Dundee or Dumbarton
Ross County v Dundee United

6 hours ago, Kingsmills said:

I don't know if the stats back it up (that's one for Sneckboy) but my impression is that Tansey is our most reliable spot kick taker since Paul Sheerin who's only miss that I can recall was the kinda important one in the Challenge Cup final shoot out.

Adam Rooney had a very good return also - 16 goals from 19 penalties. (I think he's currently on 14 from 14 for Aberdeen!)
Can't find a figure for Paul Sheerin, unfortunately! Thought I'd stumbled upon an old article that would reveal his stats, but to no avail - however, it was interesting to read that he 'learned his trade' from Matt Le Tissier during his spell at Southampton!  http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/sport/championship/1535451/Sheerin-I-owe-it-all-to-Le-Tissier.html

F/T
Inverness Caledonian Thistle 1-3 St. Mirren

Penalties taken for ICT. (Most recent: Greg Tansey (scored) v. Aberdeen - 15th February 2016)

Match penalties
Greg Tansey Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y (100%)
James Vincent Y (100%)
Richie Foran Y (100%)
Aaron Doran Y X (50%)

Penalty shoot-outs
Ross Draper Y Y (100%)
Aaron Doran Y Y (100%)
Iain Vigurs Y (100%)
Greg Tansey Y X (50%)
Richie Foran X X (0%)

Combined total (* = penalty shoot-out)
Ross Draper (100%) Y* Y*   
James Vincent (100%) Y
Iain Vigurs (100%) Y*
Greg Tansey (91%) Y Y* X* Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Aaron Doran (75%) Y* Y Y* X
Richie Foran (33%) X* Y X*

Points attained at the 33 game split, since its incorporation in 2000/01:

There are many ways of interpreting the data!
But, after 15 years of results, the averages are probably the 'safest' bet....

40 points is the average of the team just-missing-out...which also 'tallies' with 41 being the fewest points total of any team 'getting in'.
So 41 has to be the absolute minimum target.

But, the average Top 6 place requires 44 points - and, although this was attained once before with the team still missing out, this season's total requirement will almost certainly be less than that. with there being so many clubs in the bunch, taking points of each other every week - It should be considerably lower than 44.
That said, It's simply got to be the 44 point target - and we'll be safely in the elite.
So, as IHE hypothesised, we should be targeting 15 points! We're on 29 now and 15 more would see us on 44 and retaining our place as a Top 6 club.

Gabby: I can see how you think that - due to there always being an equal chance of a 'head' or a 'tail' with each individual spin.
And yes, it is 50:50 for each spin....but, over a series of spins, the odds change to take-into-account all possible outcomes.

A short example to show this is - using just 2 random draws:
Assuming,
Home = Heads = H
Travelling = Tails = T

All possibilities are:
H-H = 1 in 4 chance (25%)
H-T = 1 in 4 chance (25%)
T-H = 1 in 4 chance (25%)
T-T = 1 in 4 chance (25%)

All outcomes are equally likely, a 1 in 4 chance (25%)

In 2 random draws, you would expect to get 1 home and 1 away (in any order). And indeed, that would happen most often - on average 50% of the time (the middle two 'options' from above).
However, there's the also chance of both being at Home for both ties (25%)
...or requiring to Travel for both ties (25%).

In essence, regardless of how many draws are conducted, the 50/50 split of Home and Away ties will always be the most frequent outcome - but its percentage likelihood reduces as the number of draws increases.
There's obviously far more chance of getting an 'even split' in 2 draws than in 1000 draws (500 heads and 500 tails).
As in the 'Celtic example', over 20 draws, a 10-10 split only has a 17.6% chance of happening - but is still the most likely outcome!

That's precisely the figure I got, Mantis.
My table is rounding to 1 decimal place, so the 0.02 shows as 0.0% here.