ictchris

19 hours ago, ictfcsince94 said:

^^^this is the issue.  we have players with quality who have and will play well. but with no clear plan, consistency, tactics, formation, ideas, belief etc then we're fooked.

I don't think we have players with quality.  Our squad is dreadful, full of jobbers, bench warmers, sand dancers and hoofball merchants.  A good manager might be able to get a team out of them with organisation and discipline but we don't have that.

Maybe Tansey and Draper have the potential to play well and Billy Mckay is obviously an excellent player but isn't ours.  The rest are dross.  A few, like Liam Polworth for example, are playing like dross when they might be capable of a bit more or Tremarco, who at least tries and commits himself physically, but in the main we are dire.  Others, like Raven and Warren used to be good but have fallen off a cliff.

We've replaced first choice starting players with bench warmers and that's that.  The fact that we are still in touch with the rest is more due to the fact that Motherwell, Hamilton, Dundee and County are pretty awful this season as well.  Not as bad as us though.

I doubt he would come back - he may be from Inverness but that doesn't mean he's spent the forty odd years since he left wistfully thinking back to the days he spent playing against Rothes, dreaming of being welcomed home as a conquering hero, his photo above the bar in the Tarry Ile, local boy done good.  He's been at Villa for decades, why would he give up a job like that, developing young players for a shot at a (likely) lower league club, for less salary hundreds of miles away from where he's made his career?

It's obvious he should be sacked but I doubt he will be.  To be honest, from the first game of the season it's been clear that we've been lacking.  Sides like St Johnstone and Partick Thistle show what we should/could be doing but we aren't capable of recruiting the right quality of player or organising the players we do have.  

Realistically to stay up now we need to show an upturn in form that goes against everything we've displayed for the entirity of the season up until this point.  We've won four games in 32, one game in the last 21.  We now have six games left, I think we need to win four of them to stay up.  It isn't going to happen.

I'm sure the players will be fine, they are professionals.

Whatever happens at the end of this season, stay up or go down, we have a huge rebuilding job to come.  The core of the side for the past few seasons have either left or lost form.  Tansey has left, Meekings will probably join him and Warren and Draper's performance levels have dropped (Warren's more than Draper's).  We need to replace them with solid, reliable starters to build our team around.

The signings we have made this season do not fill me with confidence that we can do this.  None of the signings we've made have established themselves as a starter.  The closest is Brad Mckay but he has shifted around in terms of his position, from right back to centre back.  We've also had to dip into the loans market pretty heavily in January to try and drag ourselves over the finishing line and Billy Mckay is clearly the best signing we've made this season.  The danger we have is that we are going to replace excellent starters with players who are really bench-warmers.  We've done that to a large degree this season.

Just as we need to improve our play if we are going to stay up we have to improve our recruitment if we want to progress.

Signings

Scott Boden - 3(8) - 1 goal

Jake Mulreany - 7(13) 

Kevin McNaughton - 2(0)

Lonsana Doumbaya 17(2) - 5 goals

Brad McKay - 19(1)

Louis Laing - 5(0)

Henri Anier - 5(2)

Billy King (loan) - 14(7) - 1 goal

Jamie McCart (loan) - 5(0)

Larnell Cole (loan) - 11(6) - 1 goal

Billy Mckay (loan) - 7(0) - 2 goals

2 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

To be honest, Huisdean, I'm not a lot further on after that answer. However, the account you give of the most definitely neddy behaviour of the Section E micro-louts is a lot more definitive and is a vivid description of an absolute disgrace. Wee neds like that need got rid of until they grow up - if they ever do so. For some reason, and sectarianism creates the same problem, football falls victim again and again as a platform for rank undesirables like this. Somebody mentioned losing 50 admissions if this infestation were not to turn up. Quite frankly it would be money well lost just to get rid of these obnoxious creatures but in practice, if it were thought that you could visit the Caledonian Stadium without having to be subjected to this brainless thuggery, the net financial effect would probably be positive. Little parasites like this are a cancer which urgently needs excised and to hear people attempting to justify them on the grounds that they make a noise is laughable.

It's difficult to say how many of their parents are also neds but irrespective of that, one thing is certain - these parents all need to get a grip of the thoroughly unpleasant, anti-social behaviour of the offspring they have inflicted on our society.

 

Fisher works hard but I'm not sure he's got the quality.

Boden looks like a complete bust, as does Anier.

If we stay up then signing Billy Mckay will be the biggest reason. He is miles above anything else we have up front.

People are being negative because we are having an absolutely terrible season. We've won a single league game in five months. Our performances have been awful, we have been poorly organised and made basic mistakes constantly. We have recruited badly, causing us to rely on ageing players whose form has dropped. 

We know appear to be moving towards packing the defence and trying to sh.tfest our way to results. I'm not sure we've got the attacking nuance or skill to do it. 

Can't see us winning this, County are fairly rubbish but if I had to choose who was more likely to score a goal and keep a clean sheet I'd pick them.

Hope I'm wrong.

The suspension issues we had against Hearts turned out to be a big boost for us.  Gary Warren has been a superb player for us since he signed but he's been sub-par this season and McCart and Laing have done well in the two games, albeit with some shakiness.  Vigurs dropping out from the XI at Tynecastle allowed us to play with Draper, Tansey and Polworth as the midfield heart and we've been far better for it.  Tansey in particular has looked much more dynamic and his pressuring and tackling in both those games was excellent.  Draper didn't have his best game at Tynecastle but his strength was important last night and Polworth offers a lot more pressure higher up the pitch than Vigurs.  Against two side who seem to like to play keep-ball this has worked well and taken some of the pressure off our back four.

As above as well, Billy Mckay is a huge factor.  The difference in quality between him and any of the strikers we've had so far this season is massive.  That again takes pressure off the defence as he disrupts moves by pressing the defenders and he keeps the ball when it's knocked long to him.  For someone who's pretty small he's certainly a great targetman.  He's also capable of threatening the opposition goal, as we of cours saw in the final minute last night :) 

Mulreany certainly gave his best performance for us last night, especially impressive considering he was opposed by Lee Wallace, one of Rangers best defensive players.  I thought he had a good game against Hearts - offered an outball for his team-mates and tracked back really well.  He didn't get much joy against the Hearts left back but showed he can win free kicks, bagging the one that we scored from.  Previously he looked a bit lost, didn't seem to have much undersstanding about him to add to his pace but he showed last night that he's learning.  If he can put himself into dangerous positions using his pace then he can be a proper asset.

It's about 1000 games since TopSix paid to get in.

Seven corners  

Best we can hope is that the gap doesn't grow during the next three games.  

if we want to be certain of avoiding relegation we have to finish 10th.  Here are the points totals for a tenth placed finish in the SPL and the Scottish Premiership in the last ten seasons

06/07 - Motherwell - 38 pts / Points Per game - 1

07/08 - St Mirren - 41 pts / PPG - 1.07

08/09 - Falkirk - 38 pts / PPG - 1

09/10 - St Mirren - 34 pts / PPG - 0.89

10/11 - Hibs - 37 pts / PPG - 0.97

11/12 - ICT - 39 pts / PPG - 1.02

12/13 - Hearts - 44 pts / PPG - 1.15

13/14 - Partick Thistle - 38 pts / PPG - 1

14/15 - Kilmarnock - 41 pts / PPG - 1.07

15/16 - Hamilton - 43 pts / PPG - 1.13

The average tenth places team has 39 points and a PPG of 1.02.

So far this season we have 18 points and a PPG of 0.75 in 24 games.  So to make it to the average level that assures safety we need to win 21 points in the final 14 games, a PPG of 1.5  To put that into context, that would be the PPG ratio we had during season 2013/14 when we finished fifth and got to the league cup final, our second best season ever in the top flight.  That's the sort of level of achievement we need for the rest of the season, double what we've done so far.  And that's to get 39 points - as you can see in five of the last ten seasons that wouldn't actually be enough.  We've won 3 / 24 league games this season - realistically to get 21 points in 14 games we'll need to win a very minimum of five games.  I'd say that we need to win all of our home games up until the split, excluding Celtic and maybe Rangers .  Then we need to look at winning away to Partick Thistle and Motherwell.  Really going unbeaten between now and the split is a minimum requirement to stay up, unless we lose three and win six or lose four and win five.  That might put us in a decent position.

I haven't seen anything from this team that suggests we are going to do that.  Our best chance is for one or more teams to go on a terrible run and then we can overhaul them and try to win the play-off.  The best case scenario is that Mckay's return boosts us by stretching opposition teams, taking the pressure off our defence and making us more threatening.  We need the underperforming players (all of them really) to suddenly improve and start playing at levels we've seen previously from them.

I hope it happens but the far more likely outcome is that we can't do it and we are relegated.

We are on the worst run in our clubs history, we are bottom of the table and are six points away from safety.  Our next three league matches are against Hearts, Rangers and Celtic, all games we will be heavily favoured to lose.  Assume that we get through those games with the same gap, we'll need to make up six points on someone in the last eleven games.  Can anyone honestly say that we are capable of doing that?

We have been abysmal this season, of all the regular players who would anyone say has had a good season?  Tremarco, perhaps?  Other than him I can't think of anyone who has performed to the levels required.  We have a goalkeeper who constantly makes mistakes that cost us goals and matches, a defence who constantly present the ball to the opposition, a midfield who can't use the ball to attack or cover the ground to defend, attackers who can't score or create chances, notwithstanding the last-minute loan signing on deadline day.  On top of this we have a manager who makes constant changes to no effect, doesn't appear to have a plan, doesn't seem able to organise the team properly and can't get a win.

If we hadn't appointed Foran and had recruited someone externally who had this record fans would be far less forgiving.  Foran is a legend as a player but we are in serious danger of being relegated and falling down the Dunfermline / St Miren shaped hole of lower league obscurity.  

The hope has to be that we make a huge improvement in the next ten games or so because if we continue to play the way we have this season we are going down, it's a certainty.

We've released Doumbaya according to the Courier.

On the positive side, that was a good point and it's a clean sheet. On the other hand we were dreadful and Partick should be disappointed they didn't take all three points.

We started with a different shape, 4-4-2 with Doumbaya and Anier up front and a midfield of Cole, Tansey, Draper and Polworth. I can see the logic in that line up, narrowing the midfield, try to get width from the full backs and a partnership up front with one powerful and one pacy forward. The problem was that Doumbaya simply had no idea what he was doing, a shockingly bad performance from him. He has no idea what runs to make, where to go in the pitch, how to link with Anier. It was embarrassing to be honest and, after a tactical change which put Doumbaya on his own front, Vigurs was subbed in for Doumbaya before half time. We then reshuffled to have Draper playing pushed up, Vigurs and Tansey deeper with Anier in his own up front and Polworth and Cole wider. 

While all this was going on, Partick were far more threatening and used the ball well - Azeez was denied by Fon Williams from a couple of yards out, a shocking miss really. Fon Williams had another couple of great saves in the first half.

Clearly with all these changes we had zero fluency, I don't think we put together a decent passage of play once in the entire game. We hit long balls for Anier to chase or contest and got nothing out of it really.  For most of the game we didn't look as though we knew where out players were supposed to be, we didn't have any decent outlets, we didn't look like we had any plans for attacking the opposition or getting the ball to dangerous areas. The only time we looked threatening was when we subbed on Aaron Doran, who had a couple of opportunities including one shot from the edge of the area that inched past. Its puzzling that Doran was dropped after being one of our best players last week and he will surely have played himself into contention for the Accies game.

It comes back to what I said earlier in the season - it's as if we just throw players into the team without really thinking about what we want them to do. We change players in the midfield all the time, we don't have any thought about what we're wanting to do. Liam Polworth had his position moved repeatedly yesterday, right to left to right. No wonder the guy hit some misplaced passes. Larnell Cole was one of our best players recently and he was moved about and then subbed off. Mulreany came on and had a couple of successful moments against their full back but his passing and crossing is poor. He can be a valuable player but needs to smarten up and learn to play properly.

Anier didn't really do much but he had little service. We hit balls up to him and he tried but looked more interested in trying to win a foul than anything else. He got away once and looked to have been fouled but nothing was given. 

Defensively we kept a clean sheet but we've got OFW to thanks for that, some very poor use of the ball around our own box and organisational failures were on display, especially in the first half. Apparently Gary Warren had been ill during the week which may explain that. 

The game in midweek is massive and it's hard to see from that performance how we can win. Hopefully it comes together but I'm saying that more in hope than expectation

Dean Ebbd scored the first, the second was knocked in after he threw a shot against the post.

Get the Leinster Lukaku in the XI against Partick.

I've never seen as many police at a game as that,  I've never seen police dogs patrolling the pitch, I've never seen us get segregated at the end of a game before.  

This must be what supporting Leeds or Millwall is like.

Having a pacy striker up front is very important. We have Boden, a bust, and Doumbaya and Fisher, both big target men. A quick striker can give us better options for through balls, can stretch defences and help take pressure off the team. We can play better on the counter and take pressure off the defence.

Our current best option for pace is Mulreany, who might be the fastest player I've ever seen. Problem is that he's very raw and needs to learn more about playing the game at this level,taking the right option, when to gamble etc. We'll see how Anier does, he has a mixed record in Scotland but I can see the logic to the signing.

48 minutes ago, Northern_jaggie said:

Taking the figures at face value...

 

Looking at the areas of the opposition goal scoring moves, it looks like we need a sweeper to cover moves into the 18 yard box.  The figures don't reflect the number of times players are caught out of position resulting in a goal which I suspect might be a contributing factor, combine this with the "40% of through balls" fact.  A sweeper might help this too.  Our "defensive dual" success seems low for everybody so someone sitting deep would be able to double up on tackles would help this although at the expense of a deeper back line, Meekings would have the pace to track through balls more then any other options.

 

Suggest;

                          OFW

                       Meekings                        

Raven    McKay    Warren   Tremarco

                           Draper

              Doran   Tansey  King

                        Doumbouya

I think a lot of the problems aren't restricted to the defence - if it was one player who had got significantly worse then it'd be easy to pinpoint but all defenders performing at a lower level, in the measures used, suggests that the issues are wider.

I didn't do any analysis of other players further up the pitch but the fact that this season more of the moves leading to goals against us have been in the 'centre' circle area stuck out for me.  I don't think we are keeping the ball up front well enough and when we lose it I'm not sure we are doing the best job of recovering it, or even pressuring the opposition and covering space.  I can't say anything definitive about it though.

Regarding crosses and through balls, those figures haven't really changed much from last season to this.  40% of goals from through balls, 20% from crosses from the left, 20% from crosses from the right and the rest from 'other' (long shots, dead balls, OGs, direct passes to the opposition).  

One thing that would've been useful is to have had the figures for the entire league to see how we compare, especially with the pitch grid stuff.  I'm not doing that though because I think my wife would leave me if I spent hours watching all Hamilton Accies goals.

I don't really like that formation - I don't think adding another defender would deal with the issues and I can see that midfield getting put under a lot of pressure.  I'd have Polworth starting as well.

There's definitely a paucity of data on Scottish football, I suppose to be expected for a smaller country. There's a lot of dedicated amateurs, which can be better, but there's a lot of measures you see for the English leagues that aren't available easily in Scotland.

Having checked with the @TheSPFLRadar the data for the radar charts isn't directly from Opta.

14 minutes ago, CaleyD said:

Any idea on what source data is being used?  I only ask because it's became increasingly apparent this season that the Opta data is very unreliable.

I actually suspect it's maybe not Opta data as the info looks almost identical to analysis that the club has access to from elsewhere.

The data for the radar charts was supplied by @TheSPFLRadar - he can give you more details if you want to message him directly on Twitter.

All the other data I did myself by going through all our conceded goals for ast season and this one. A fun way to spend a Friday night.

Shameless plug here - I wrote a blogpost about our defensive issues this season and NareysToePoke blog kindly published it

http://nareystoepoker.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/caley-thistles-case-for-defence.html

Hope people find it interesting, any feedback welcome.

Linked with Alex Harris on Twitter.  Hibs midfielder, exploded into their team at 18 but fell out of contention and spent a couple of seasons on loan at Dundee and Queen of the South.

It's a move that makes sense.  Storey's time with us was the most productive of his career, he has now stalled and we are relatively close.  There's talk of other Scottish teams in for him - Hibs and Dundee Utd both interested but I see United just signed someone on loan.

He'd be a good signing for us - he's got goalscoring pedigree in this league and having someone with a bit of pace up front would allow us to play a bit further up the pitch, to create space and press teams into making mistakes.  Problem is that he's a known quantity now and it's difficult for us to compete with any other team to secure signings, especially not teams with bigger budgets, like Hibs and DU.