I have finally worked out what Douglas Adams' 42 was the answer to:

How many points would you need to guarantee finishing outside the bottom 2 of the Premiership/SPL since the 12 team, 38 game format was introduced. 

So six more wins then 

As a more renowned and more reliable I have always mooted that it needs to be either one more point or better goal difference than the team in 11th place at the end of the season.

On ‎01‎/‎01‎/‎2016 at 11:29 AM, HawkeyeTheGnu said:

I have finally worked out what Douglas Adams' 42 was the answer to:

How many points would you need to guarantee finishing outside the bottom 2 of the Premiership/SPL since the 12 team, 38 game format was introduced.

I make it 58 points - or at least that's the figure at the start of the season which progressively drops down to whatever it ends up as, depending on how the season has been going.

We have to remember that this is a purely theoretical consideration which, in the case of the 58 point value, would in practice never happen but whatever number it is at any time becomes more and more likely as it progressively diminishes until you reach the final value.

How do we get 58? It is theoretically possible, albeit inconceivable, that all 12 teams would win half and lose half of their 38 games. This means that they all end the season on 57 points, with goal difference determining the bottom two. Hence one more point - ie 58 - on the part of one team would be enough to guarantee safety... and also the title. However even that remote 58 point possibility only survives until the second drawn game of the season, after which the theoretical target drops in a way which is determined by results, including draws. So at any point in the season there is a particular total which guarantees freedom from relegation, although it is very difficult indeed to work out.

Edited January 4, 201610 yr by Charles Bannerman

Spooky or what Charles ....

 

Incidentally: When the air traffic control unit at Perth Airport (ICAO code: EGPT) in Scotland was closed following a downturn in commercial pilot training, for which the airport was best known, the final NOTAM (notice to airmen) issued by the unit via the AFTN stated, "This is Perth ATC signing off. So long and thanks for all the fish."

Given the propensity for dolphins close to the Caledonian Stadium then I think Hawkeye may be onto something and Adams' message was even more specific to ICTFC.  

[now sitting back to count how many whooshes occur]  

 

 

I was going to post something similar but bored myself so much I fell asleep whilst typing 19 X 3 points.  

Zzzzzzz.

Whilst sleeping I had a strange dream that Donnie Murdos assistant would save the day.

According to the tables, in the 15 seasons since the 12 team league came in, the average points score for the bottom team is 27.6. St Johnstone (2002) have the lowest total of 21 and ICT (2009) the highest of 37. The corresponding figures for second bottom are 35.6, 32 (Dundee Utd 2003) and 41 (Simmurn 2013). This means that no team scoring 42 or more has ever been in what has more recently become the playoff place, so maybe that's the enigmatic significance of this number.

If teams continued to score points at the rate they have been doing so far, the final table would read - Celtic 87, Aberdeen 78, Hearts 67, St J 59, Ross County 52, ICT 51, Dundee 47, Motherwell 47, Partick 46, Hamilton 42, Killie 36, Dundee United 18. United, who have been scoring points at just half the rate of the next worst team, are therefore currently on track to be the 12 team top league's poorest team ever.

Certainly the statistics stack up very poorly indeed for United and there is a real Everest there in front of them if they are to stay up. On the other hand, in the spring of 2010 I did a similar appraisal of ICT's chances of catching Dundee and getting back to the SPL and got that completely wrong. However it's easier for a tem that's not doing too badly to move up a notch than one which is struggling and the added factor in 2010 was Dundee completely bottling it.

It's not just Sneckboy that sometimes has time on his hands.......

7 minutes ago, Charles Bannerman said:

According to the tables, in the 15 seasons since the 12 team league came in, the average points score for the bottom team is 27.6. St Johnstone (2002) have the lowest total of 21 and ICT (2009) the highest of 37. The corresponding figures for second bottom are 35.6, 32 (Dundee Utd 2003) and 41 (Simmurn 2013). This means that no team scoring 42 or more has ever been in what has more recently become the playoff place, so maybe that's the enigmatic significance of this number.

I sometime wonder why I bother...

Oh, and Livingston only managed 18 points in 05/06.

Some folk may remember this from last season! A very rough tool to 'calculate' predicted finish.

12 minutes ago, HawkeyeTheGnu said:

I sometime wonder why I bother...

Oh, and Livingston only managed 18 points in 05/06.

Bother! I put a ring round the wrong number on my list. Apologies.

4 minutes ago, Sneckboy said:

Some folk may remember this from last season! A very rough tool to 'calculate' predicted finish.

Based on the pro rata final totals I worked out, that means that Celtic are currently on course to score five fewer points than the title winning average, despite having had Rangers to contend with up to 2012 but no longer. Aberdeen are on course for just three fewer than the average for the runners up, despite these runners up (always?) being the "losing" member of the OF until Rangers' demise. It's interesting that the current 8, 9 and 10 are scoring faster than average which probably reflects the tightness of the table in that area and also how far adrift Dundee United are. United are currently on target for ten points short of the average bottom total, twice as big a shortfall and the next biggest "failures" who are Celtic at five adrift.

But 'our' figures for average points for bottom and 2nd-bottom do tally (mine are rounded up!)

Edit: To avoid confusion, this comment was in reply to the CB post before the one directly above...

Edited January 4, 201610 yr by Sneckboy

I think I will just wait till the end of the season and see where we end up

45 minutes ago, Sneckboy said:

But 'our' figures for average points for bottom and 2nd-bottom do tally (mine are rounded up!)

Edit: To avoid confusion, this comment was in reply to the CB post before the one directly above...

Absolutely! Similarly, mine for the pro rata points at the end of the season are also taken to the nearer whole number which I actually might as well have done with the others.

But whatever one's statistical conventions, it's inescapable that Dundee United are in ever-deepening poo!