Its undoubtedly a bad start, 1 win in 10, and sitting at the bottom while the traditional 'bottom feeders' who we might expect to be there amongst us are grabbing some points that may prove crucial later.
The only season that started worse was 2007/08 when Charlie lost the first three games and promptly resigned (Butcher this season lost two and got a draw in the third) but even in 07/08, after 10 games between Christie and Brewster at the helm to start that season we had a record of W4 D0 L6. currently its W1 D2 L7.
It also has to be said that Brewster that particular season (07/08) did OK to begin with but later in the year went on a streak of 1 win in 13 that included 7 straight defeats and still kept his job .... it wasn't until the following year that he was sacked after getting 2 wins in 11 between Nov and January.
I can see why "the natives are getting restless" as "1 win in 10" is in the same sort of territory as the numbers mentioned above, but currently, and as crazy as it may seem to some I am not overly concerned. Not burying my head in the sand, but confident that TB/MM will turn the corner.
In other words ..... I BELIEVE
and here is why ...... (sorry, its long winded !!!)
I think Butcher has been hit by a four-cornered 'perfect storm' of troubles and we will come through it in the end ..... some of the storm is of his own creation, some of it just unfortunate.
1. Squad Turnover: I do believe he was right to release a lot of the players he did at the end of last season but I disagree with the release of Munro, Duncan and perhaps Sanchez. Russell Duncan is the type of player you want in there battling and doing the dirty work right now when we are not doing so well and I feel our defensive woes would not be so prominent if we still had a central defensive partnership of Tokely and Munro, even if Munro was still 'hoofing' which may not be pretty to watch, and is not be the preferred option for Butcher, who wants us to play it on the deck, but most times its effective. Sanchez also had something and I hoped we would see the best of him this year .... Some of this opinion may be sentimental, but even 1 year contracts for the trio would have seen us have less squad woes I feel.
2. New Players/Young Players: Hand in hand with releasing a raft of long serving players is the problem of getting a group of new players together and making them into a cohesive unit. Individually I think most of his signings are good, but we have yet to see them gel and work together the way ICT teams in the past have. As much of a negative as this point is, the upside is that when they do click, it should be good to watch.
Having so many new players was never an ICT trait in the past so I am speaking from bitter experience of watching Toronto FC for the last 5 seasons on this aspect. TFC has gone through more than 100 players in those 5 seasons (ICT is about 180 in 17 seasons by comparison) and the same applies ... there have been many good individual players but when the team on the park from one season to the next has little continuity, or even the team from game to game (in TFC's case) then its hard to build momentum from season to season or even game to game. This week TFC were virtually eliminated from the MLS playoffs and tonight may see them exit the Champions League if they don't get a result against Pumas Unam of Mexico, but despite all of the disappointment, most fans can see coach Aron Winter trying to rebuild and repair the damage of previous seasons, move the club forward, and also encourage youth by having many younger players in the squad who play regularly (but not every game). No-one is seriously calling for his head, they can see the progress.
I think Butcher is trying the same ... look at the age of our squad, look at what he has done in shipping out older players and replacing them with players still in their teens or early 20s ... he is trying to refresh an aging squad and keep the quality, and there is certainly some quality about many of our younger players.
However, doing this is a balancing act, our young players are good, and we need them, but relying on them too much can be folly as they dont have the experience or guile that older players do, and can suffer from burnout, which brings me back to Munro and Duncan ... Tokely, Munro, Duncan, Foran would have been quite a nice spine of experience with youngsters fitting in around them but right now we perhaps dont have that ..... TFC is the same. For me, the 'stars' of the season have been a 19 year old Ecuadorian winger called Joao Plata and 22 year old defender Richard Eckersley (on loan from Burnley) but until TFC signed Torsten Frings for the midfield and Danny Koevermans to play up front, the guile and experience was not there. Their signings were too little too late for this season but they signed multi-year deals so hopefully TFC will come out of the starting blocks next season ready to perform from day 1. Butcher doesnt have the luxury of waiting until next season, but hopefully he is looking at his options for January already and perhaps seeing what he can do to strengthen the squad.
3. Injuries: While Butcher had a lot of control over the first two corners of the 'perfect storm', no-one can really argue that he hasnt been hamstrung by injuries? If it were all training ground injuries you might argue the case but a lot of ours have come in games, and a lot turned out to be long term. He has not been able to field his first choice team this season (whatever it may be) and for two games he wasnt even able to list more than 5 subs !!!
4. Lack of Money: Again, another thing that Butcher has no control over really. As we saw with the accounts, the club is not making a profit. We may not be in as dire straits as some clubs, but year on year we are making a loss and that is unsustainable. As the biggest cost within a club is its playing budget then you know that TB has to fight for every pound he gets, and he wont get every pound he asks for. A lot of comment has been made of loan signings or short deals, but unfortunately that's the market we (and many other clubs) operate in. We need to strengthen several areas of the team, but quite simply, we do not have the money to shop for the best talent, we have to unearth gems either from lower leagues or from the youth ranks or by sweet talking bigger teams into letting us have a promising player who can gain experience. TB was quite good at this when he was at Motherwell, and with the amount of decent youngsters in our side now, I think he is doing the same at ICT. It wont win us the title, but when it clicks we should be alright .... it may also help with finances as promising youngsters may be sold on to other clubs.