Crucial Six Pointer Clash

Every point is a prisoner from here on in as we face a crucial six-pointer at home to nearest challengers Stenhousemuir. Gary Naysmith's side have been the biggest threat to our aspirations to return to the championship for next season. Make no bones about it, they are the real deal and are having a tremendous season thus far and a tidy Scottish Cup run to boot, where they thrashed Morton 4-0 then gave Falkirk a hard time before fatigue set in once extra-time kicked in. Not only that, but their League form has been consistent and they have already beaten the Caley Jags at home and away this term. The Warriors are unbeaten at home in the League for the last twelve fixtures, since Alloa Athletic beat them on the opening day of the season on August 2nd, and that has been a solid platform for them to build their season around. We did edge them out in the quarter final of the KDM Trophy, but that was another tough encounter. We moved five points ahead last weekend after Stenhousemuir dropped two points against Montrose whilst we beat Hamilton Accies in a tense win at Broadwood. All in, this should be another big game which could indicate where the title might be heading.

A date for the diary: Our KDM Trophy fate has been decided when Ayr United beat St Johnstone after a dramatic ending and a penalty shoot out win. St Johnstone came back from the dead with two goals in the 89th & 94th minute to level the tie at 3-3. Ayr went on to win the shoot-out 5-4 and we will face them at Somerset Park with the game being shown live on BBC Alba. Tuesday 24th February 19:45 kick-off.

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Match/Ticket/Bus/Bar/Info

KDM Trophy 📺 Ayr United

📺Live on BBC Alba📺

Young Fan Zone

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𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 - 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐚𝐧𝐳𝐨𝐧𝐞

Ready to level up your matchday?

The new ICT Young Fanzone is kicking off and it is the place to be before every home game.

If you’re 12 to 17 and mad about Caley Thistle, come hang out, cook up new chants, help create displays or just chill with your pals before heading to the stadium. Football on the big screen and free food and wifi? What is not to like?

And this week only…

The club are sorting free match tickets for everyone who comes along. Turn up, get involved and head to the game for free — simple as that.
We’re running every home game all season, so bring your mates, bring your energy and let’s build something class together.

Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC
ICT Supporters Trust
The SPFL Trust

This was our starting XI in the Broadwood bruiser. Not the prettiest of games but pretty doesn't win titles. Points do, and we came home with all three thanks to Alfie Bavidge's superb headed goal.

• Last Six League1:

• D W W D W W

Our League form picked up after a punishing January fixture schedule. Having lost the previous two games against Stenny & Montrose, we steadied the ship with a hard fought 0-0 D at Cove. We kicked on again beating East Fife (0-2) & Alloa (3-1). A hard fought draw at Palmerston next where we led twice before being pegged back in a quality 2-2 draw. We beat East Fife comfortably 3-0 and followed that with our BBC Alba extravaganza at Broadwood (0-1)

Apparently Alfie Bavidge has now been told that he will be a free agent at the end of this season as they won't be renewing his contract. Keep it quiet. Would be great if the two Alfie's followed us into the championship next season.

Tickets Available HERE

🚗 Car Parking available
🛍️ Club Shop open from 10am
🍺 Bar 94 open from 12pm

• 🍹Bar 94 will open at 1200, last orders at 1430 (the bar must be fully vacated by 1445).

• The bar reopens at full time, when we will be joined by some of the players.

• 🚍Stagecoach, buses will leave the Bus Station for the Stadium at 1245 and 1415.

• 🚍 Return to the Bus Station 10 minutes after the full time whistle and at 1800.

• 💰 £2.70 single (contactless payments or cash accepted)

• Over 60 / Disabled and Under 22 Concession passes are valid, giving free travel on the service to passholders.

The Warriors squad that dropped points against Montrose at home in a 2-2 draw. An og and one from Finlay Gray had the Warriors ahead before Calum Sandilands got his second of the game ten minutes before the end as he followed up on a saved penalty kick by Taylor Sutherland.

• Last Six League1:

• D W W W D D  

The first D was a 0-0 draw at Alloa followed by three wins on the bounce over Queens, East Fife & Kelty, scoring a total of nine without reply. Their last two D were both 2-2 at home against Peterhead & Montrose.

Striker Matty Aitken was named as League1 Player of the Month, scoring five times in January. Great season for the experienced striker. And it comes as no surprise to find Gary Naysmith picking up the Manager of the Month award.

Winger Kane Ritchie-Hosler has joined on loan from Dunfermline Athletic.

Pos	Team	Pld	Gd	Pts
	ICTFC	24	28	47
	Stenny	24	14	42
3	QotS	25	7	39
4	Alloa	24	12	37
5	P'Head	23	-12	29
6	Monty	24	-13	29
7	E Fife	25	-18	28
8	Cove	25	-5	22
9	Accies	24	15	20
10	Kelty	24	-28	15

All you ever wanted to know about Liam Sole 

Anyone want to play the shots to shots on target comparing apples and oranges game.

Interesting stats from yesterday league games.

Peterhead possession 63%, shots 13, on target 6, 46% success rate EF Possession 37%, shots 7, on target 1, 14% success rate

Alloa Possession 64%, 22 shots, on target 11, 50% success rate Hamilton Possession 36%, 10 shots, on target 1, 10% success rate

Cove Possession 58%, 5 shots, on target 4, 80% success rate Kelty Possession 42%, 5 shots, on target 3, 60% success rate

Montrose Possession 37%, 6 shots, on target 5, 83% success rate QOS Possession 63%, 16 shots, on target 6, 37% success rate

ICT Possession 64%, 9 shots, on target 2, 22% success rate Stenny Possession 36%, 7 shots, on target 2, 29% success rate

That makes us 3rd out of 10 on yesterdays results. Room for improvement ?????

15 minutes ago, bishbashbosh said:

Anyone want to play the shots to shots on target comparing apples and oranges game.

Interesting stats from yesterday league games.

Peterhead possession 63%, shots 13, on target 6, 46% success rate EF Possession 37%, shots 7, on target 1, 14% success rate

Alloa Possession 64%, 22 shots, on target 11, 50% success rate Hamilton Possession 36%, 10 shots, on target 1, 10% success rate

Cove Possession 58%, 5 shots, on target 4, 80% success rate Kelty Possession 42%, 5 shots, on target 3, 60% success rate

Montrose Possession 37%, 6 shots, on target 5, 83% success rate QOS Possession 63%, 16 shots, on target 6, 37% success rate

ICT Possession 64%, 9 shots, on target 2, 22% success rate Stenny Possession 36%, 7 shots, on target 2, 29% success rate

That makes us 3rd out of 10 on yesterdays results. Room for improvement ?????

Success is measured on how many goals you score. If you always aim for the middle of the goal you will have a higher proportion of your shots "on target" but you'll also find the keeper probably saves them all. Having a shot saved by the keeper is not success.

Think you are missing the point DD. The success rate was for hitting the target which all players on the planet are trying to do. We had 9 shots and only 2 of those shots could have got us a goal, a 22% success rate. Never seen a goal awarded for a shot going past the post or flying over the bar.

I was pointing out how poor our shooting was compared to 7 other teams in our league. Not forgetting 8 teams are part time.

Thanks for the reply though.

DD may well disagree with me, but on more than one occasion I have suggested that we shoot for the centre of the goal, since our shooting is so bad that that's the last place it will go. Also gives us the element of surprise

If you are not too good at golf, always aim for the centre of the green. If you're not good at darts, aim for the bed (I forget which one it is) that will give you the best results if you miss on either side. Why should football be any different?

Sounds flippant, but it's not a new problem, and we really do need to get more shots on target.

Getting shots on target when there are ten men behind the ball narrowing angles, closing down space and pressuring the shooter is going to be more difficult than it would if our attackers had more space to work with. You can't directly compare our shots on target ratio to other teams in the league because of this.

All very interesting. Should our Manager be giving his players a shots target? IE I want to see 6 shots on target in the first half. Do other, or any, Managers do this?

On the face of it Stenny have been lucky with injuries and suspensions so far this season.

An interesting discussion, but we are the top scorers in our league with 44 goals scored, 3 more than QOTS who have played a game more, and 9 more than Stenny.

Yes we can always do better, but let’s remember er this season is all about getting promotion.

As long as we secure enough points to achieve that, preferably without the play offs, then it is job done.

PS. We have conceded fewest too, 4 less than the next best defence, Alloa.

18 hours ago, bishbashbosh said:

Think you are missing the point DD. The success rate was for hitting the target which all players on the planet are trying to do. We had 9 shots and only 2 of those shots could have got us a goal, a 22% success rate. Never seen a goal awarded for a shot going past the post or flying over the bar.

I was pointing out how poor our shooting was compared to 7 other teams in our league. Not forgetting 8 teams are part time.

Thanks for the reply though.

With respect, bbb, I don't think it is me who is missing the point. Players are trying to score goals, not just hit the target. Success is not just hitting the target, it is hitting the target and not hitting the keeper. Percentages of shots which are on target are pretty meaningless. For example, in yesterday's North London derby, Spurs had 6 shots, 5 of which were on target - a "success"rate of 83%. Arsenal had 20 shots of which 7 were on target - a "success" rate of 35%. By your reasoning that would suggest that Spurs were twice as good at shooting as Arsenal, yet Arsenal won 4-1.

And look at the highlights of our game and the 2nd half efforts from outside the box by Liam and Alfie Stewart. Liam's was well "on target" but lacked power and the keeper simply had to stand still and wait for the ball to fall into his hands. Alfie's shot fizzed narrowly past the top corner with the keeper beaten, but it was "off target". Which was the better shot? Which was the closest to scoring a goal?

But whilst I think your "success rate" analysis is misguided, I think the point you are really making is that our shooting could / should be better. And in that I would agree with you. As you rightly say, if the shot is wide or high, it will never be a goal. Equally, if you aim a weak shot from outside the box into the middle of the goal it will only rarely end up being a goal. Players need to aim to get the ball inside the woodwork and out of the keeper's reach. From outside the box, it is a combination of accuracy, pace and swerve and there are fairly narrow margins of error. Closer to goal, different skills are needed. Even top players miss the target more often than not. Cristiano Ronaldo has an overall shots on target record of just over 40% , but he has scored rather a lot of goals. Having said that, I do think we have too high a percentage of shots missing the target, but we need to be realistic in our expectations and, as Stephen says, understand the circumstances of where the shot is taken from and the nature of opposition pressure which will impact on the shooter.

I think that with the way we have often dominated possession in games we should be scoring more goals. There are times when we have the chance to shoot from the edge of the box but opt instead to try and get closer into goal. Also, we are too cautious in midfield at times and we miss playing the more difficult defence splitting passes with forwards running into the space behind. We should do that more often to create chances, even if it does mean that the pass "success" rate drops off a bit.

Bottom line is that the only stat that really matters is how many goals we score and how many we concede.

1 hour ago, DoofersDad said:

Bottom line is that the only stat that really matters is how many goals we score and how many we concede.

Have to agree! I do love my stats, but you can typically use most stats to prove how useless stats themselves are ... at least 50% of the time anyway ;)

The number of bookings this weekend might make us look (statistically) like a dirty team, but the overwhelming feedback seems to be a shi**y ref and a diving shower on the opposition side. The ones that I still cant quite get my head around are XG and XGA. I read the definitions and my eyes glazed over. Those are now in common use but seem to be of more use to bookies and coaches than the average punter.

6 hours ago, Stephen Malkmus said:

Getting shots on target when there are ten men behind the ball narrowing angles, closing down space and pressuring the shooter is going to be more difficult than it would if our attackers had more space to work with. You can't directly compare our shots on target ratio to other teams in the league because of this.

Yes you can, because we're all playing each other!

Or are you saying that they all play differently when they meet ICT?

1 hour ago, snorbens_caleyman said:

Or are you saying that they all play differently when they meet ICT?

Yes

1 hour ago, snorbens_caleyman said:

Or are you saying that they all play differently when they meet ICT?

Even Kells has alluded to this, saying recently how refreshing it was to play a higher-league team in the Challenge Cup because they played attacking football rather than packing the defence, as is the norm with teams in our own league.

I can understand it too. Currently, we are the big-shots and teams will try to prevent us playing, hoping to hit us on the break but playing predominantly defensively. A bit like when teams play Rangers or Celtic.

Stats have to be taken with a large pinch of salt, after all there is a famous saying " there are lies, damned lies and statistics".

I'm with Scotty on xG being pretty pointless to you and me. I get that it could be useful in a coaching scenario, telling a player "don't shoot from there no-one ever scores from there" but as a commentary on a game it's totally worthless.

Shots on target are good, but I agree with DoofersDad, not the be all and end all as you also have to avoid the keeper.

Create enough chances and you'll win enough games. If you don't create them you can't score them.

The fact we are top of the table, clear by 10points [allowing for the deduction], with a vastly superior GD, and goals scored, shows our approach is working, and how efficient we are

I’ve kind of warmed to Xg tbh.

As a single stat, it kind of tells the story of whether a team has deserved to win, scraped a draw or mugged the other team (like Stenny did at ours back in August).

I always look for the other stats but they can be all over the place - you can have 75% of the ball, the other team can have 5 corners to 0, as I’m sure somebody did to us recently, 12 fouls to 3 etc etc. So you can just ignore Xg as you wish, but I think it adds another dimension of interest. Stats was actually my first degree subject so obviously I’m away at the end of the bell curve 😂😂😂

Another thing that came up on p&b recently (mainly to try and predict the shape of the new LL East and West ) is PPG. I’m sure this has been a thing in American sports for a while as they love their stats. There is a slight argument for replacing points won by PPG in a league table, although I don’t see it catching on.

21 minutes ago, The Mantis said:

Stats was actually my first degree subject so obviously I’m away at the end of the bell curve 😂😂😂

Stats is my degree too, so I do find them interesting but I don't think you can really get a true impression of a game from stats alone.

Lets say a team has 65% possession but mostly knocked around their back four. They have a few breaks and fire off 4 shots, all on target but from outside the area and straight at the keeper. The other side has 35% possession but when they do get it it's further up the pitch, however the packed defence makes it hard to penetrate and they only get 3 shots away (from inside the box) with 2 on target and win 1-0. It looks like a real smash and grab from the stats, but viewing the game they might be the only team really trying to win, just finding it difficult to do so. That said, xG would probably favour the victors oin this case.