So I've been doing some rough calculations.

Group C

		Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Loss	For	Against	GD	Points
1	Inverness Caledonian Thistle		2	2	0	0	7	2	5	6
2	Cowdenbeath		3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
3	Heart of Midlothian		2	1	1	0	3	2	1	5
4	Raith Rovers		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1
5	Cove Rangers		3	0	0	3	1	5	-4	0

 

That is the current group as it stands before we play Raith on Tuesday. Now there are a number of outcomes but below is what I'm hoping to see and IMO the most probable outcome. Caveat on all of these, I have been sampling the local beverages waiting for Sunday dinner to took so I accept no responsibility for the maths being incorrect.

If Hearts take a 3 point deduction tomorrow for fielding an ineligible player and we win on Tuesday the table will look as below. I haven't factored in a possible Hearts result on Tuesday because it wouldn't affect the top 2 places of the group.  I have assumed a 1-0 win for Caley as this is a minimum GD increase. As you can see that puts us 3 points ahead with 1 to play. Assuming there isn't a 6 goal shift on the final day we should finish top of the table = qualification to the knock out.

Group C

		Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Loss	For	Against	GD	Points
1	Inverness Caledonian Thistle		3	3	0	0	8	2	6	9
2	Cowdenbeath		3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
3	Heart of Midlothian		2	1	1	0	3	2	1	2
4	Raith Rovers		3	0	1	2	1	4	-3	1
5	Cove Rangers		3	0	0	3	1	5	-4	0

 

 

 

if only....... have you been talking to IHE?

Edited July 22, 20187 yr by caleyboy

Let's just try and win our next game. Reckon it may be harder than some folks are expecting.

1 hour ago, caleyboy said:

if only....... have you been talking to IHE?

Looks spot on to me.

2 hours ago, Stirling Observer said:

Let's just try and win our next game. 

Yes, concentrate on what we have to do and let others around us fail or get deducted points. Would be nice to finish top though and into the knock out stages.

Agree...let's do what needs to be done without relying on any point deductions or the like ?

So once again I've been doing some calculations and once again I have been enjoying a glass of vino or 3ish so please double check my sums and let me know.

If we win or draw on Sunday we finish top of the group. If we lose it all comes down to our points and GD. There are 8 groups, we need to out qualify 4 of them, so.....

Group A:

County and Alloa are 1 and 3. Arborath in 2nd have played all 4 games and have 8 points. They play each other for the final game. We currently have more points than both of them so if it ends a draw we still finish with more points. Therefore we out qualify 2nd place from Group A regardless of our result against Hearts. ?

Group B:

Montrose are in 2nd with 6 points and have completed their games. Forfar are in 3rd with 5 points, their max is 8 points therefore we out qualify 2nd place from group B regardless of our result against Hearts. ?

Group D :

Dundee sit 2nd with 6 points and a GD of 4. They play Brechin for their last game so I am going to assume 3 points and at least 3 goals so Dundee will out qualify us. ?

Group E:

Ayr Utd play Partick on the final day. This is a 1st v 2nd clash. Ideally an Ayr win would suit us as Patrick currently have a GD of 5. If Patrick win we need a swing of 5 goals to help us. This is 50/50 ?

Group F:

Currently both 1st and 2nd have less points than us. Livi play Berwick so certain 3 points, Airdrieonians play Hamilton. If we go on cup form this should be a win for Airdrie but I can't call this one as Hamilton had a good win in their last game. A Hamilton win suits us perfectly. ?

Group G:

Motherwell sit 2nd with 7 points and are away to Clyde. 3 points to the Well therefore we won't out qualify 2nd place ?

Group H:

This is not so straight forward. St Mirren currently sit 2nd with 6 points but are without a win in 3 games. They play Dumbarton on Saturday, a Dumbarton win suits us and I think they might turn them over so I am going to say we will out qualify 2nd place. ?

 

So as it stands, we have 2 groups that are out of the running and 2 that are certainly through. It all comes down to groups F and H. Of course ideally we go to Hearts and stuff them but I'll also take a draw and another win on penalties. After all we have a good record in League Cup penalties against Hearts ? 

Edited July 25, 20187 yr by mcdonnell761

Iain Vigurs competitive debut for County ends in a 4-1 thrashing by Arbroath. More pertinent to us, the runners up in group A can no longer reach 9 points and, after this evening's results, nor can the runners up in group B.

12 hours ago, Kingsmills said:

Iain Vigurs competitive debut for County ends in a 4-1 thrashing by Arbroath. More pertinent to us, the runners up in group A can no longer reach 9 points and, after this evening's results, nor can the runners up in group B.

I believe he also picked up his first booking of the season .... surprise surprise!

What a roller coaster of a Saturday. Clyde where ahead with about 20 minutes to go then Motherwell banged in 3 goals. What does that mean for us?

Well if we lose there will be 5 teams on 9 points. 

1.  QOS -  9pts, GD 7, 12 goals for

2. Dundee - 9pts, GD 7, 8 goals for

3. Caley -  9pts, GD 6, 9 goals for

4. St Mirren - 9pts, GD6, 8 goals for

5. Partick - 9pts, GD3, 6 goals for

So providing we don't lose by 4 goals we will qualify for the last 16. That being said a draw or win will see us finish top of the group.

And a win, either in 90 minutes or by penalties, will mean we are seeded in the draw.

Edited July 28, 20187 yr by Rasczak

1 minute ago, Rasczak said:

And a win, either in 90 minutes or by penalties will mean we are seeded in the draw.

As would a draw and defeat in the penalties, I think.

2 minutes ago, King Edward Ofere said:

As would a draw and defeat in the penalties, I think.

I think Razcak is right. We would need 11 points to be one of the best 4 group winners.

Edited July 28, 20187 yr by Yngwie

2 minutes ago, Yngwie said:

I think Razcak is right. We would need 11 points to be one of the best 4 group winners.

Yeah, I was still looking at the second place table.

Well, this thread seems somewhat redundant now so I will lock it.