Kelty Hearts Six Pointer Alert

 

With Kelty Hearts seemingly in free-fall, they have parted company with their manager Charlie Mulgrew after a disastrous run of one win in eleven games since he took charge in January. That run has yielded just six points from a possible thirty-three which has scuppered their play-off hopes unless they drop further into the relegation zone, then anything is possible. However, not all the news coming out of the Caledonian Stadium this week is about events on the park. It has been a massive step in the right direction as the news broke that Alan Savage has been accepted as the preferred bidder by the Administrators (BDO) " A BDO spokesperson said: “We are delighted to have reached this milestone and would like to place on record our thanks to Alan, the loan creditors, shareholders and everyone at the club for their cooperation and for working so hard to get us to this point.“Our focus now is on progressing the CVA to ensure a successful exit from administration and secure the future of the Club. Together with Alan, we will look to firm up timescales in this regard as soon as possible.”

Happy Days, and the feel good factor has returned to the Caledonian Stadium

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Match/Ticket/Bus/Gig/Info

Calum Jones Gig/Bar94

Alan Salvage Preferred Bidder

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2025

Apr 12th	League (League 1)	-	H	-
Feb 22nd	League (League 1)	1 - 0	A	641

2024

Nov 2nd	League (League 1)	1 - 1	H	1,502
Aug 24th	League (League 1)	0 - 0	A	692

2022

Jul 9th

League Cup (Group Stage Group G)

1 - 0

A

601

Only the four competitive meetings between the two clubs and you can't get a fag paper between the two sides. The last encounter saw Alfie Bavidge bagging the winner in the second half.

💔 Kelty Hearts Broken 💔 The two previous encounters this season had ended all square but this Training Ground Derby at New Central Park went the way of the visitors thanks to a strike from Alfie Bavidge. Scott Kellacher had a full squad to pick from with James Nolan dropping down to join new signing Ben Brannan on the bench and Billy Mckay was up front with Alfie Bavidge. Charlie Mulgrew had a defender trialist on from the start who turned out to be Kirk Broadfoot but top Scorer Ross Cunningham missed out. After a goalless first half the Caley Jags upped the pace and Alfie Bavidge opened the scoring with twenty minutes remaining. A late scare as Kelty bounced a header off the crossbar following a corner but the visitors held on for the win in what turned out to be a great day for the Caley Jags with all others round about them losing. Happy days!

INVERNESS CT  The Season So Far

D L  D  D W D D D L   / W L  D W W W L  W L  

W W L W W L W D W / W L  D L  W 

Since Scott Kellacher was handed the reins in game 11, there has been a more positive approach to our matches which has resulted in improved performances and a more enjoyable matchday experience all round. Alas we were brought back to earth with a disappointing result in our last game of 2024, a crushing 1-4 defeat at home to Cove Rangers. We'll have to put that one down to a bad day at the office. However, we bounced back in our first game of the second half of the season in the six pointer against Dumbarton with a hard fought 2-0 win. That win over Dumbarton was a vital one and the introduction of Alfie Bavidge was a welcome one as he opened the scoring early in the first half. Charlie Gilmour slotted in the clincher in the second half to give us a cushion over the Sons and to narrow the gap on Annan to seven points. We took part in the only League1 game the next weekend and came away from Annan with a resounding 3-0 win, Alfie Bavidge netting again with Keith Bray and then Billy Mckay from the spot.  It was then on to Palmerston on the Tuesday night but in a five goal encounter we went down 3-2. Alfie Bavidge notched his third goal in three games and Keith Bray added a second but goals from Adam Brooks (2) and Jordan Allan kept the points in Dumfries. We bounced back with a resilient 1-2 win at Alloa in our third away game on the bounce, Dunfermline bound Keith Bray with his fourth of the season and Alfie Stewart. We got our revenge at home to QotS (1-0) with Alfie Bavidge scoring his fourth goal in five appearances. Alas it was a bridge too far at Arbroath and we went down losing three without reply. The Stenhousemuir fixture was postponed and was re-arranged for March 11th. We went to Kelty and came away with a narrow 1-0 win thanks to Alfie's 5th goal in 7 appearances. Montrose proved to be stubborn opponents and it took a superb diving header from Keith Bray to rescue a point in a rather turgid encounter after Sandilands had opened the scoring in the first half. A last gasp win at Dumbarton on the Saturday with Alfie Bavidge scoring his 6th goal in 9 games. Unfortunately Alfie was injured early on against Stenhousemuir in midweek but that didn't stop us running up a 4-1 win with goals from Brannan, Gilmour, Bray and Allan. Annan came North on Saturday in a six-pointer and it was a disappointing defeat after Annan parked the bus after scoring in the third minute. Next up was a 1-1 draw with Alloa despite hitting the woodwork twice and missing a penalty. Another bad day at the office last weekend at a wet and windswept Palmerston after Queen of the South blitzed us with three second half goals to run away with a 4-1 win in Dumfries. Meh! We bounced back with a rout of our own as a Keith Bray hat-trick sunk Cove Rangers 3-0 at Balmoral Park. What a result that was!

With Bavidge and Longstaff out for the remainder of the season, how timely & satisfying was it to see Keith Bray bang it a hat-trick at Cove last Saturday. A great all round team performance with Alfie Stewart providing all three assists.

Latest Team News: Remi Savage returned to the defence last week after suspension and Calum MacLeod came on as a sub after missing the game at Palmerston. 

Pos	Team	Pld	Gd	Pts
1😎	Arbroath	32	19	60
2😵‍💫	Cove R	32	14	49
3😖	Stenny	32	8	49
4😀	Queen o Sth	32	0	45
5	Alloa Athletic	32	7	44
6🙁	Montrose	32	-5	39
7💩	Kelty Hearts	32	-7	37
8😍	Inverness CT	32	4	36
9	Annan Ath	32	-26	33
10😛	Dumbarton	32	-14	16

 

Following Tuesday's announcement regarding the resignation of Charlie Mulgrew, it has been confirmed that Thomas O'Ware will take charge of the team for the remainder of the season. Tam will be assisted by the coaching team of David McGurn, Jamie McDonald and Dean Robertson.

Last Six: D L  D  D L  L  

Kelty's last six is the worst run in League1 right now. The draws were against Montrose, Stenhousemuir and Arbroath with a heavy defeat at home to Cove (0-4), an away loss at Annan (2-1) and the crushing 6-0 defeat at home against already relegated Dumbarton. Ross Cunningham is joint top scorer with Mitch Megginson of Cove. However, he is suspended for this one. Scott Williamson has seven.

 

Here's the players warming up ahead of this crucial clash at the Caledonian Stadium on Saturday. With big Mulgrew offski, Tam has stepped in to fill the gap after Charlie only won six points from thirty-three leaving Kelty dangling just above the relegation zone.

With Lord Salvage looking to invest in the club, it's happy days down at the dump after a season of hurt.

So much so, that there is a sing-song at the stadium after the Kelty game starting at 18:00.

What's not to like!

Lack of squad depth, lack of ability to change shape and personnel and our inability to break teams down at home again. Everyone in the league comes to us wanting a point so park the bus and time waste where eventually we either give away soft goals or get countered. Again yesterday we saw a repeat of Alloa and Annan where we could play forever and not score. We are too easy to play against at home.

While lack of options especially up front is hurting us, so is no plan B, we continue in the same predictable ways all the time you can see our play becoming more frustrated and ragged. While SK has done a good job, if Savage is expecting promotion next season and not wanting extended league 1 football it will not be lost on him that there is a decision to make around whether SK can bring that even with a better squad.
 

1 hour ago, bdu98196 said:

Lack of squad depth, lack of ability to change shape and personnel and our inability to break teams down at home again.

Indeed. 0-2 v Kelty and even worse, the 0-1 home to a threadbare Annan side (that I think had 2 over 40s and another 38yo).
The constant in both those dismal results was our ‘nil’. The loss of Bavidge has left us with a squad devoid of any goal scoring strikers.

1 hour ago, Howdenender said:

I often find myself in agreement with you, but in this case to say the facts show that Kell has done a great job is surely stretching it a little? The recent facts are that Kelty Hearts, who have no money, Montrose, who have no money, and Annan, similarly penniless, have all left Inverness with three points in their pockets! Despite these somewhat desperate performances we may still avoid a relegation playoff, due in large part to the poor standards of others.

I don't think it is stretching it and a quick look at previous managers shows that his PPG is up there with the best and better than many.  John Hughes in 2014/15 is the last time we saw it that high and only in promotion seasons prior was it higher.

I've deliberately not mentioned other factors in this (but others have) because it's tough to quantify and whilst we can't judge his ability to put a squad together etc., we are seeing his ability to get much more out of a squad than his predecessor and many other 'good' managers in our history.

Not denying there hasn't been disappointing performances and results in there too but that's part of football and judging managers on individual games and not overall results during their tenure is a slippery slope.

I think he's already delivered the near impossible by going into the last 3 games with hope of league survival.  When he delivers it that will be the miracle.

I'd be really disappointed if Kell was removed at the end of the season and think it would be unjust.

Weirdly I think he'd be getting less criticism if we hadn't got anywhere near 8th place because people's expectations wouldn't have been raised so high.

The ultimate case of being the victim of your own success?

Unless Alan Savage has had a major change of mind since he announced the terms of his bid, Scott Kellacher is not going anywhere, nor are Billy McKay, Charlie Christie, Andrew Benjamin or Grassa.

He said they would remain part of his team.

Notwithstanding that, there’s no way we should be questioning Kel’s future given how he’s got safety within our own hands. 

Edited April 13, 20251 yr by Robert

2 hours ago, Starscape said:

Yeah, although,

And ifs and buts!   We will certainly see Kells see out the remaining (let’s hope 3) games. No question here and he deserves this for what he’s achieved to date. But let’s not be restricted or blind to ‘more of the same’ of Saturday’s game and tactics against Kelty. As I mentioned earlier (half time), why 11 ICT players in our own 18 yard box for at least a couple of corners? No outlet with at least one striker on the half way line to fight for any clearance (hoof) upfield. Surely that (11 men in box) was not a tactic? If it was then you would hope Kells or Billy would see it wasn’t working and effect a change next time round!
As the game developed it was clear Kelty (a lot better than I expected {or a few here give credit to } in there set up and ability to break quickly), were able to transfer from a defensive position to attacking with players who could run, carry and pass the ball quickly. Danny and Remi whilst good in the air have no speed whatsoever and are exposed when faced with players of pace. 
I get it Kells wanted to go for a win, but it would needed to be an own goal on Saturday for us. Dropping a player behind D&R to lock up shop IMO would (should) have been made as a tactical decision. 
Hindsight’s a great thing and prepared to give Kells the benefit of the doubt here. Won’t be so forgiving if we repeat the same mistakes and don’t learn for the remaining games. 
bc

Edited April 13, 20251 yr by big cherly

Even Charlie got it wrong this week by being quoted as saying ' Charlie Christie revealed Caley Thistle have already started recruitment and work to shape their squad for PROMOTION next season'.

Until we are safe. history shows showing respect to opponents is the best way out of a crisis. 

Maybe he meant promotion from league2😮

10 hours ago, STFU said:

The point if my last couple of posts was to say that the facts show Kell has done a great job and the suggestion to the contrary was uncalled for.

You then have 3 paragraphs saying the facts don't show how well Kell is doing and the 10 games from before he took over mean nothing and you then immediately follow it with a comment saying people can't deny how well he is doing.

Yours sincerely,

Mr Confused

What a load of tosh.

where did I say the facts don’t show sk doing well. Apples and oranges I said. If you are going to compare both managers you can’t do it 10 games against 23 games. 

cant deny sk has done well is me talking, I don’t speak for other “people”.

i think you and I will have to agree to disagree. In future I won’t respond to any of your posts so I can’t say anything that is uncalled for.

if I have caused you any distress or hurt I Apologise.

ps…. You forgot the .com after mr confused.

 

The 10 vs 23 games is why I used average PPG.  If you want to go back and include 23 games for Ferguson then his average is even worse and only strengthens the case for Kell.

I don't take anything said online to heart so you can sleep easy and not worry about upsetting me. Feel free to disagree with me any time you like and I will continue to do the same.

Do we even know if Scott wants to continue beyond the end of the season?

7 hours ago, CaleyD said:

Do we even know if Scott wants to continue beyond the end of the season?

That is actually a good question but I would suspect he will 😁.

On 4/14/2025 at 3:15 PM, STFU said:

The 10 vs 23 games is why I used average PPG.  If you want to go back and include 23 games for Ferguson then his average is even worse and only strengthens the case for Kell.

I don't take anything said online to heart so you can sleep easy and not worry about upsetting me. Feel free to disagree with me any time you like and I will continue to do the same.

Ok, you hooked me one more time and I bite. 
Kellacher 23 games in league 1. adding 13 CHAMPIONSHIP games to Ferguson to give him 23, well, yet again, comparing apples and oranges.

Too boring now. End of dialogue, from me.

have a nice day.

Edited April 16, 20251 yr by bishbashbosh

1 hour ago, bishbashbosh said:

Ok, you hooked me one more time and I bite. 
Kellacher 23 games in league 1. adding 13 CHAMPIONSHIP games to Ferguson to give him 23, well, yet again, comparing apples and oranges.

Too boring now. End of dialogue, from me.

have a nice day.

I think you also need to take into account that Ferguson v Kellacher can’t be a like with like comparison in that all of SK’s games have been with a squad that’s been depleted and impoverished by Administration. Fair enough, some of DF’s games were in the championship, but all 23 of SK’s have been under very constrained circumstances.

19 hours ago, bishbashbosh said:

Ok, you hooked me one more time and I bite. 
Kellacher 23 games in league 1. adding 13 CHAMPIONSHIP games to Ferguson to give him 23, well, yet again, comparing apples and oranges.

Too boring now. End of dialogue, from me.

have a nice day.

Out of interest, how would you compare the performance of both managers?

I agree that STFU's method isn't ideal, but I can't think of a method that is better suited, and you are kinda making an argument that says managers can never be compared.  I was once an expert at digging myself into these kinds of holes 🤣

4 hours ago, CaleyD said:

Out of interest, how would you compare the performance of both managers?

Apples/oranges, what leagues, how long over what period, what injuries/ limitations; endless parameters that allows everyone to be able to come up with an answer that suits their point.
- You add DF time at Forest Green to make his record worse of example. 

Absolutely meaningless for me as any prediction of how we will perform next season (and in what league) cannot /should not be based on DF or SK’s past football results. ICT will have I expect a large turnover of players at the end of this season and will be setting their stall for promotion from that league in one season. 
Looking forward to seeing what emerges at the end of the season from AS on how he proposes to take the club forward. His communications will be vital / important at the outset I feel to provide the fans and any interested investor / business with a clear vision and timetable to join the merry ship ‘AS New Beginnings’.

bc

Edited April 17, 20251 yr by big cherly

The one thing about statistics is that 97% of them can be skewed to prove the point that you are trying to make.

If someone wants to make Duncan Ferguson look like our best manager ever then they might mention that he only lost 9 of 31 games at home and had a positive goal difference, or that he had a 11 game spell where we only lost twice in October 2023 - November 2023 but the full record speaks for itself. 58 games, comprising 17 wins, 21 draws and 20 losses. If you look at the fixture list, it is the draws, and the lacklustre manner of those draws that were the killer. 

Scott on the other hand has now managed 24 games. and has won 12, lost 9 and drawn only 3. We have less draws, but at this early stage he has lost more (percentage wise) than DF. He has also got 12 wins in only 24 games so a win % of 50% which is best of any manager we have had. You could argue any of these statistics to favour Scott or to discredit him. 

 

I quickly threw all the numbers into Excel so they could be compared side-by-side. The numbers take no account of what league we were in, how much money we had or whether we were in admin like now. These are caveats the statisticians can put on any figure to dispute it. I have also ranked the managers based on their percentage of wins, draws, non-wins, non-losses, and PPG figure. It should be noted that the PPG figure is also subjective as I did not have time to deep dive into the record of each manager and see how many of their games were league or cup so I awarded 3pts for a win regardless of competition and 1pt for a draw and simply divided that by total games.

 

After getting those numbers together I ranked each of our managers on their individual career records 1-12 to give them a total number of points based on where they are in the rankings for each column. I then ranked all of the managers based on their rank points in each of those categories to see who finished top. The lower the number of points in this case the better.

Scott Kellacher is currently top based on that small sample of his games, with Robbo and Paterson behind. Richie Foran finishes last with Fergie just behind him. I would argue that this seems to match the sentiment over the years on here and as a new manager SK is likely higher than where he will end up as he will find his level and likely drop down over a larger sample of matches, but its a pretty good start to be fair.

Yes he is not in the Championship or the Premiership like other managers before him, but no-other manager has had the squad constraints for administration so the playing field is as  level as it can be I think. 

 

Like all statistics - you are free to agree, disagree or think they are full of **** 🙂

 

 

 

 

...and in a good example of skewing the numbers ... if I add a ranking for goals per game for and against, as a potential indicator of 'entertainment value', it drops SK down to 2nd= place with Robbo overtaking him and Pele coming up equal. 

 

1 hour ago, Scotty said:

and in a good example of skewing the numbers ... if I add a ranking for goals per game for and against, as a potential indicator of 'entertainment', it drops SK down to 3rd place with Robbo and Pele overtaking him. 

 

 

What if we get relegated this season? SK’s stats will still show him a super manager. Absolutely meaningless to me but again it proves the point you want to push! 

bc

Edited April 17, 20251 yr by big cherly

The surprise for me is Billy Dodds. He is higher than I expected on this.  

This is the rank based on the points system i mentioned above and I might have put Dodds lower and Charlie higher had I been doing this in my head but overall its pretty close I think. Brewster's 2nd term harmed his record or he would also have been higher. When I look at them in this order, the biggest stat that looks consistent for them to be in this order is the win %

 

 

3 minutes ago, big cherly said:

What if we get relegated this season? SK’s stars will still show him a super manager. Absolutely meaningless to me but again it proves the point you want to push! 

bc

I have no point to push. I work with stats every day of the week and the one thing about stats is that, outside of the extremes, you can usually make them say whatever you want. I have no agenda to push for or against SK. I find his press conferences a breath of fresh air. I like that we seem to be winning more games under him, and have clawed back 15 points but I am also concerned that we have seemingly thrown away opportunities to grab points in winnable games without any real explanation why we blew hot one week and so cold the next.   

The stats suggest he is doing as good a job as many other managers, but you are right, it will all be for nought if we are relegated. His stats down a division are also not necessarily likely to be super high as we will have lower quality players in that lower division ... just like as we rise the divisions we have higher quality. Steve Paterson's stats over 325 games were all from the lower divisions, never the Premiership. Robbo had a lot of Premiership games but he also had higher level players. You will NEVER have a completely 'apples for apples' comparison for any team that has faced relegations, promotions, embargoes or any other kind of situation. 

What I personally take from the stats, and you are free to take your own conclusions from them, is that SK has made a good start in several areas but also that it is a small sample size compared to others. Until he reaches say 50 games the stats are open to interpretation.  What does seem apparent however is that Richie Foran (46 games) and Duncan Ferguson (58 games) were by far our worst managers based on multiple KPIs. 

1 hour ago, Scotty said:

...and in a good example of skewing the numbers ... if I add a ranking for goals per game for and against, as a potential indicator of 'entertainment value', it drops SK down to 2nd= place with Robbo overtaking him and Pele coming up equal. 

 

Interesting to see all these stats and rankings.

Big Dunc being worst for goals per game is something that we didn’t need any stats for!

Given that we play all sides twice both home and away, another way of comparing the records of SK and DF is to look at how we did with SK in charge of the corresponding fixtures of the 10 games DF was in charge of at the beginning of the season.  For example, Ist game of the season was a 1-1 draw at Dumbarton, but when we played them away 2nd time round we won 2-0.

So DF's record in his 10 league games this season was: W2, D6, L2, F7, A 7, Pts 12.

In the corresponding fixtures later on, SK's record was:  W5, D2, L3, F14, A 11, Pts 17.

That's probably as good a like for like comparison as we can get, although there will be loads of caveats here as well, no doubt.  You can draw your own conclusions, but I would be very happy to see Scott as the manager next season.

3 hours ago, Scotty said:

The one thing about statistics is that 97% of them can be skewed to prove the point that you are trying to make.

If someone wants to make Duncan Ferguson look like our best manager ever then they might mention that he only lost 9 of 31 games at home and had a positive goal difference, or that he had a 11 game spell where we only lost twice in October 2023 - November 2023 but the full record speaks for itself. 58 games, comprising 17 wins, 21 draws and 20 losses. If you look at the fixture list, it is the draws, and the lacklustre manner of those draws that were the killer. 

Scott on the other hand has now managed 24 games. and has won 12, lost 9 and drawn only 3. We have less draws, but at this early stage he has lost more (percentage wise) than DF. He has also got 12 wins in only 24 games so a win % of 50% which is best of any manager we have had. You could argue any of these statistics to favour Scott or to discredit him. 

 

I quickly threw all the numbers into Excel so they could be compared side-by-side. The numbers take no account of what league we were in, how much money we had or whether we were in admin like now. These are caveats the statisticians can put on any figure to dispute it. I have also ranked the managers based on their percentage of wins, draws, non-wins, non-losses, and PPG figure. It should be noted that the PPG figure is also subjective as I did not have time to deep dive into the record of each manager and see how many of their games were league or cup so I awarded 3pts for a win regardless of competition and 1pt for a draw and simply divided that by total games.

 

After getting those numbers together I ranked each of our managers on their individual career records 1-12 to give them a total number of points based on where they are in the rankings for each column. I then ranked all of the managers based on their rank points in each of those categories to see who finished top. The lower the number of points in this case the better.

Scott Kellacher is currently top based on that small sample of his games, with Robbo and Paterson behind. Richie Foran finishes last with Fergie just behind him. I would argue that this seems to match the sentiment over the years on here and as a new manager SK is likely higher than where he will end up as he will find his level and likely drop down over a larger sample of matches, but its a pretty good start to be fair.

Yes he is not in the Championship or the Premiership like other managers before him, but no-other manager has had the squad constraints for administration so the playing field is as  level as it can be I think. 

 

Like all statistics - you are free to agree, disagree or think they are full of **** 🙂

 

 

 

 

I think it’s also fair to point out that SK is the only manager who was presented at the start with a squad severely pruned by administrators and with next to no scope to strengthen it.

back to the age old cliches though ... Over the years, how often have we heard that "On paper we have a great squad" or even here, the assertion that on paper the stats for SK look good. Regardless of this, the game is played on grass (real or fake) and the paper doesn't matter 🙂. Lets hope for 3 points in the next game and drawing ever closer to relegation playoff safety. 

7 hours ago, CaleyD said:

Out of interest, how would you compare the performance of both managers?

I agree that STFU's method isn't ideal, but I can't think of a method that is better suited, and you are kinda making an argument that says managers can never be compared.  I was once an expert at digging myself into these kinds of holes 🤣

caley D, I am not really interested, I will leave that to all the Statto’s on here, remember him from the fantasy football league show with frank skinner and David baddiel.

It’s apples and oranges, and makes no difference what manager is the greatest especially when the team may be in free fall.
Must be a slow news day when others are wasting their valuable time getting involved in a spat between me and my new good mate, stfu .😄

got my ticket for stenny, season ticket for Arbroath and I am taking my granddaughter to St Andrews for a tennis tournament in a fortnight when after I drop her off on the Saturday morning I will make my way to Dundee and onward with a mate to Montrose for the final game of the season. ( don’t worry my wife is with us and will pick her up when day one of the tournament is over.)

spoiler alert, yes I have a mate.