First goal....game over!

[PerfICT]

I don't think I've ever kown a team that is so affected by the first goal. The old "first goal will be important in this game" is overused, but this season it is has been all but decisive in determining the outcome. The terrifying thing is that, when we concede an early goal, we completely collapse until at least half time (St Johnstone; 4-0, Aberdeen 4-0 down at half-time, Celtic 5-0, Dundee United, 5-0). Apart from these games, our defensive record is immense - how can that be? From memory, we've only managed to come back twice to get anything out of a game that we conceded first in this season.

 

This issue needs to identified and rectified. I presume it's a combination of lack of tactical awareness (chasing the game too early) and evaporation of confidence (much more difficult to deal with).

 

What is clear is, if we don't get this sorted, there's no point in watching games beyond the first goal (either way) because the result is inevitable.

 

Thoughts?

[+Wanderer]

Here we are exactly half way through the season, and it is remarkable how the first goal in a game has been decisive.  Of our 19 league games:

 

10 wins – we scored first every time

6 defeats – we conceded first every time

2 no score draws

1 score draw (2-2 at Celtic) – the only game in which the team scoring first didn’t go on to win.

 

Some people mentioned elsewhere that the players heads seemed to drop the other day after going behind – maybe it’s because they know that they haven't so much as salvaged a draw when that has happened!

 

The positive thing is that ICT have been incredibly good at holding onto leads.

 

The message for Hughes is that the only tactic we need is to score the 1^st goal, the rest will take care of itself. I don’t know why he didn’t think of this before.  

 

I'm sure Yngwie will be along to update us on the stats...

[Sneckboy]

Update for all games played this season (33)

3 games finished 0-0, so obviously no first goal.

 

We score first

win  16

draw 3

lose 0

 

They score first

win  0

draw 2

lose 9

 

Although a cliché, the first goal really does seem to be so significant to the eventual outcome!

Edited March 11, 2014 by Sneckboy

[Council Juice]

I think a lot might be to do with the team getting a little panicky and trying to enforce an equiliser straight away. They go a little gung ho and get caught out at the back. Manager needs to get the players in the mentality that if its an early goal there is plenty time to play so just play the natural game. Of course trying to hit back immediately is no bad thing as the old adage says you're at your most vurneable right after you've scored.

[Sneckboy]

It is indeed an 'adage'. But only that.

A comprehensive study was done on this presumption - summarised in a book about football fallacies (forgotten its name). But it dismisses the idea of being vulnerable after scoring. Comprehensive statistics show it's a complete myth!

The other notable observation from the study was that, despite fans rousing their team on after securing a corner, a goal only occurs roughly once in every 30 corners!

[PerfICT]

It is indeed an 'adage'. But only that.

A comprehensive study was done on this presumption - summarised in a book about football fallacies (forgotten its name). But it dismisses the idea of being vulnerable after scoring. Comprehensive statistics show it's a complete myth!

The other notable observation from the study was that, despite fans rousing their team on after securing a corner, a goal only occurs roughly once in every 30 corners!

Like Sneckboy, apparently, I'm a bit of a stats nerd! The corner stat is fascinating: between 1.5 and 3% of corners actually result in a goal (some teams are better than others at both scoring from them and defending them). And yet we all get so excited by them. Some of you will have seen that Barca often don't just pelt the ball into the midlle any more - they simply see it as an opportunity to keep possession.The point is that a cross into the box is effectively a 50:50 ball, so it is little wonder that goals from corners are so rare. It is astonishing that more inventive corners are not adopted by more teams.

 

Back to who scores first and ICT - the stats are astounding for us....Sneckboy will no doubt tell us whether a whole season has ever been achived wherby a team has never won a game in which they've conceded first and/or t'other way around? I'm sure it says something about us, but I'm not quite sure what...

[Council Juice]

It is indeed an 'adage'. But only that.

A comprehensive study was done on this presumption - summarised in a book about football fallacies (forgotten its name). But it dismisses the idea of being vulnerable after scoring. Comprehensive statistics show it's a complete myth!

The other notable observation from the study was that, despite fans rousing their team on after securing a corner, a goal only occurs roughly once in every 30 corners!

Its certainly true that many of these sayings have little basis on factual evidence, but surely a lot would be to do with managers, for many years now, drilling players to keep focus immediately after scoring themselves, thus reducing the chances of it happening.

[Renegade]

We should start like this (presuming we kick-off):

 

 

 

And no, I'm not joking!

Edited March 11, 2014 by Renegade

[PerfICT]

....seen that before: the Leizig goal is true class - Love it!