v Dundee Utd Jan 2024

[Alan]

I don't know if it is my imagination but every time Billy McKay is substituted  we seem to capitulate and lose late goals

[ymip]

Our lack of penetration and general guile in the final third is a major concern for me. This makes Ferguson's apparent aversion to Roddy or Keith Bray utterly bizarre.  For me Bray was the only positive in the Dodds portion of the season and as a minimum should be on the bench. The game was screaming out for one of them to come on but we wait until United score before Doran and Sheridan enter the fray. 

From my perspective Billy dropping deep, even into our own half at times, is clearly being demanded from the manager and leaves us with no outlet up top which again I find to be a very strange tactical decision. 

Our lack of a sustained bounce under Ferguson is a concern and although we manage to retain plenty of possession it's apparent that the opposition are happy to sit back and let us pass it about as they know we're unlikely to actually trouble the keeper and they'll fancy their chances on the counter given our inability to see out clean sheets.

We've seem glimpses of optimism at Queen's Park and Ayr but seem completely incapable of sustaining any kind of form which is desperately needed to get us away from the bottom of the table. My previous optimism that we can challenge for a play-off place has completely evaporated in recent weeks.

I fear all we're going to see this month is more loanees who may, or may not, be better than the current squad and/or lads we're releasing. This suggests to me that that we have little or no long term plan with the vast majority of the team out of Contract in the Summer. It's all very well shipping players out to reduce wages buy who do we get in to build a team capable of moving the club forward in the medium to long term? 

Worrying times and no signs to me that we have a coherent way out of our current predicament. 

[Eagle4Caley]

21 hours ago, IMMORTAL HOWDEN ENDER said:

Again from afar on the box I thought that there were a lot of positives. I thought Carragher was solid and has a lot more to show. He evidently did not want to make any errors in his first outing and was probably told to play tippy happy, plus he has got to get used to the system and players around him. Devine was excellent. I have always viewed Shaw as being a number 10 as he doesn't have the pace of a wide man. Playing Billy deep was ridiculous, leaving Longstaff as a lone striker which he clearly isn't. I would also have liked to see Harper as a wing back as he is more effective there. Modern coaching is all about tippy happy and playing out from the back so we may have to accept that. But we need a LOT more movement up front and more pace out wide.

I pretty much agree with everything you have posted on this match, I thought Shaw and Longstaff did OK, but Shaw needs to stay out on the wing, it seems like he is being asked to be the creative guy in the middle. And that issue rather made me wistful for the likes of a Vigurs or Liam Polworth [I never understood why the latter got so much stick] let alone a Christie, Andrew Shinnie, or Marley Watkins. Obviously also annoying that Welsh scored on his debut for QP, on his day a stand out player for us, but far too much time spent injured...and I think Gilmour is developing nicely as his replacement [in most departments], Anderson impresses me too, but he is a temporary addition and time spent on the pitch for Bray and MacGregor between now and May could be crucial for next season.

We seemed strong in defence for 99% of the match, Carragher looked pretty decent to me, and the commentators though he had a decent game although he risked a card or two. Boyes stand out at the back for me, but again another loanee. Is Ujdur carrying an injury or does big Dunc think he needs a bit of a rest?

The overwhelming feeling from me  though is how desperately we need a decent enough big guy up front who can both win headers and hold the ball up [doesn't even have to score too many goals]. Guys like Sutherland and Todorov [at his best for us] gave us that. It would bring McKay, Shaw, etc more into the game, and ensure the opposition CB's had busier time. Not an easy fix I know, which could lead to Sheridan staying on if Dunc thinks he's getting fit enough. Brooks, I see as a future replacement for Billy. Samuels, much as I like him, has a bodymade of glass, and a slow brain. Lodovica was a panic punt, he has pushed on at all. Fingers crossed then that we can find someone in this window.

 

 

[robbo1985]

21 hours ago, Alan said:

I don't know if it is my imagination but every time Billy McKay is substituted  we seem to capitulate and lose late goals

I'm afraid to say I think this is coincidental rather than causal.  With or without Billy McKay on the park, when we have a slender lead or drawing, we drop deeper and deeper as the second half progresses inviting the opposition to come onto us and, more often that not, score a late winner.

Billy McKay usually looks pretty spent by 60 odd minutes which is fair enough given his advancing years combined with him being asked to cover more ground than ever, dropping back to fit in with our current style of play.

The problem for me stems not from substituting Billy itself, but from having a complete dearth of adequate replacements for him.  Despite their height and presence, neither Lodovica or Sheridan have looked capable of holding the ball up and fulfilling the 'target man' role never mind threatening to score a goal.  

Whilst I still think Adam Brooks has the potential to be a regular goalscorer at Championship level - good goal towards the end at Cappielow - he ain't going to do that as a lone striker within our current set-up and no doubt needs more experience.

It's clear that our lack of creativity in the final third, cutting edge and shots on goal is our most pressing issue to be addressed right now.  I don't think we as fans will be the only ones who recognise that.

The question for me is not whether Duncan Ferguson will be trying to strengthen his attacking options in this transfer window, but whether the current budget will enable him to bring in one or two players who are available, willing to relocate to the Highlands and **crucially** are better than what we already have.

Having attended the vast majority of games this season, I am still confident we have enough quality within the current squad of players to keep us in the division.  I also think if we can (somehow!) bring in a proven goalscorer or two - and see more of Bray, Doran and MacGregor - we can still challenge for fourth place.

I know some will think that's deluded but we have actually played some really decent football at times this season (often away from home) and matched the best teams in the league....at least for the first 85 minutes!!

 

 

 

Edited January 14 by robbo1985

[Robert]

Ayr have appointed Scott Brown as Manager ahead of playing Arbroath tonight, the game in hand they both have on us.

Edited January 23 by Robert

[Robert]

Ayr won 2-0 so are now above us. We’re in 8th, only ahead of Queens Park by a point with Arbroath three behind us.

Squeaky bum time again.

[tm4tj]

Pos Team Pld W D L F A Pts   1. Dundee Utd 20 13 5 2 43 10 44 2. Raith Rovers 21 13 5 3 38 28 44 3. Partick Thistle 21 10 6 5 42 33 36 4. Airdrieonians 20 8 3 9 19 23 27 5. Morton 20 7 5 8 24 27 26 6. Dunfermline 19 6 5 8 24 24 23 7. Ayr United 21 6 5 10 27 38 23 8. Inverness CT 21 5 6 10 23 25 21 9. Queens Park 20 5 5 10 26 39 20 10. Arbroath 21 5 3 13 23 42 18

[+Gringo]

15 games left. That's 45 points. That would give us a total of 66 points. Easy.

[RiG]

You probably feel that the bottom 5 are the ones who are most likely going to be battling it out to avoid the drop. Airdrie and Morton seem to go on reasonable runs every so often and probably have better players / managers than the rest of us down the wrong end of the table. Obviously Partick, Raith and Dundee United won't be near the relegation spots.

I fear we are in real trouble.  

[caley100]

Ferguson really needs a playmaker in midfield, Longstaff, Shaw Harper don't hurt opposition and Doran is on the fringes of being past it unfortunately. 

Our survival really depends I'm afraid on a decent player coming in.

 

[bdu98196]

7 points separate 9th to 4th. I defeat and we could be bottom but if that's a win we could be 6th.

Hardly the doom and gloom times when Dodds left, we were rock bottom and 10 points off the playoffs.

Points taken since Dunc arrived

Raith = 31

DUtd = 30

Partick = 26

Morton = 22

ICT = 20

Airdrie = 18

Ayr = 17

Dunfermline = 12

Queens = 11

Arbroath = 6

 

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	F	A	Pts
1.	Dundee Utd	6	4	2	0	12	2	14
2.	Raith Rovers	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
3.	Arbroath	7	4	0	3	13	8	12
4.	Dunfermline	6	3	2	1	9	5	11
5.	Partick Thistle	6	3	1	2	14	9	10
6.	Airdrieonians	6	3	0	3	6	10	9
7.	Queens Park	7	3	0	4	10	15	9
8.	Ayr United	6	2	0	4	8	14	6
9.	Morton	6	1	1	4	8	15	4
10.	Inverness CT	6	0	1	5	3	8	1

[Satan]

After 6 games 7 points still between 9th and 4th.

Only our position has changed,  marginally.

How does your glass look...?

Edited January 24 by Satan

[IBM]

My glass is half full, I have faith in Big Dunc and the team to keep us in the league this season regardless of what is happening upstairs. 

[bdu98196]

4 hours ago, Satan said:

After 6 games 7 points still between 9th and 4th.

Only our position has changed,  marginally.

How does your glass look...?

That and our average of 0.15 points per game has almost improved 10 fold to approx 1.5.

Continuing at that rate we should get around 22 points from our remaining 15 games which should be more than enough to avoid relegation. But we all hope for continued improvements throughout

[The Mantis]

22 hours ago, bdu98196 said:

That and our average of 0.15 points per game has almost improved 10 fold to approx 1.5.

Continuing at that rate we should get around 22 points from our remaining 15 games which should be more than enough to avoid relegation. But we all hope for continued improvements throughout

I was listening to the pod there in the car and the guys were predicting how many points we would get - I think they did it on a game by game basis and they were mostly getting 37-39 which in recent seasons hasn’t always guaranteed 8th place.

How  I looked at it was, Dunc has (I think) 20 points from 16 games which is 1.25 ppg (you’re quoting nearly 1.5 but I can’t see why, and over 15 games 1.5-1.25 = 0.25 ppg is significant ).
On that form we would expect another 18.75, say 19 points which makes 40. But we can only hope that the new signings can improve that as you say.

btw I sent you a friendly wee dm a couple of weeks back just in case you don’t see these alerts on your phone, as you haven’t read it