Scotland's chances

[ICTPaisley]

Does anyone feel we can still do it? We should have won by a few last night but only managed the one nil. A couple extra goals could have been vital for us in terms of goal difference.

If Scotland win their next match against Lichtenstein and we have to think Spain will beat the czech's we will move above them into 2nd by one point. That leaves us with a final game against Spain and the czech's away to Lithuania (Czechs lost the last encounter in Prague). If we lose to Spain which is more than likely we will be relying on Lithuania to win the match for us giving us a playoff place. I'm still unsure what happens if the Czechs draw though. That would leave both teams on 11 points. Would it then go to goal difference? Or games against each other. If it is goal difference then a good win against Lichtenstein could possibly be enough for us to qualify.

[ict247]

If the Czechs's draw and we finish equal on the same points, the determining factor is the head to head games in this campaign. Since they have 1 win and 1 draw and we have 1 lose and 1 draw they'd finish higher than us. The most likely way of us going through is for Lithuania to beat Czech at home then all we need is three points at Lichtenstein. Can't see us taking anything at Spain but who thought we'd take anything at France when McFadden scored a few years ago. I like to remain optimistic!

[Alex MacLeod]

If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the

following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine the rankings: a) higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;

b) superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;

c) higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;

d) higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question;

As things stand at the moment Czech's only need one point from their two games to qualify on the above criterea, assuming we finish level on points. We need to aim for all six to have the slightest chance.

[starchief]

Our chances are hanging by a thread. And so they should be really. Despite the penalty, Czechs were the better team at Hampden. Only one player regualrly played for any team in the top half of the EPL last season (Darren Fletcher, although he was injured for much of it). Of the others, Hutton and Wilson barely got a game, whilst Bannan went to Leeds on loan.

Levein's been criticised for being too negative. But that's how we've had our best results. Should we go negative like Brown, McLeish and Smith, or positive like Vogts or Buley? That's largely rhetorical by the way.

I would say we have no strikers capable of scoring regualrly against quality. Even S.Fletcher and Goodwillie are a long way off top quality. I think the 4-2-3-1 is the right system for Scotland, although it's either Brown or Fletcher - too similar for both of them playing.

I don't think we've any chance of getting anything off Spain. Surely, we would have beaten the Czechs at home, if we could beat Spain in Madrid? And I think we'll really struggle in the World Cup qualifiers. But we're still playing the right way. Maybe in 8 years time, we can have enough results to get some confdence back and be in a higher pot. It's a struggle back from the bottom.

[Alex MacLeod]

On paper we shouldn't beat Spain but we have shown on many occassions that we can match the stronger opposition so I wouldn't rule it out. We did come back at them at Hampden.Could we manage a point of them. That may be enough..............................provided we beat the Lichties

[ICTPaisley]

Euro 2016 will have 24 teams in the newly expanded tournament. Surely this will be our next big chance at qualifying. That's an extra automatic place for 2nd best teams and a playoff for 3rd place.

[+MrCaleyjag]

I never like to be negative towards the national team and always support them but unfortunately don't see us qualifying as much as it pains me to say it. As far as I see it we are too quick to look ahead al the time and question can we do it, the way the Scottish game and the national team is sitting at the moment the best we can do is concentrate on one game at a time and go from there.

Each international win boosts the co-efficient which ultimately helps out with so called 'easier groups' the further up the rankings you go as we all know, for that reason we must start taking one game at a time and if it all comes together then great we'll be in a far better position.

I genuinly believe our management team looked at the games and said before the away game to the Czechs that they can take a point away we'll win at home, look how that backfired as well as his infamous 4-6-0. They should have went into the away Czech game much more positively with only that game in mind then taken it from there but they didn't. Apparently much thought went into how the games were arranged and when we played them to suit our chances, it really hasn't worked at all. Maybe FIFA need to go back to dictating the fixture list and we deal with it from there taking one game at a time like club football.

**Edit - because I can't spell properly

Edited September 7, 2011 by MrCaleyjag

[Alex MacLeod]

Euro 2016 will have 24 teams in the newly expanded tournament. Surely this will be our next big chance at qualifying. That's an extra automatic place for 2nd best teams and a playoff for 3rd place.

Dont know what the criterea would be but, unless other nations qualify to play in tournament, there will still be 51 nations playing in the qualifiers. At the moment thats spread as six groups of six and three of five. I can see that staying the same with first and second from each group qualifying and possibly best four third places from each of the groups of six + current champions + host nation. I know its Uefa we're talking about but that would be the most sensible way.

[Scotty]

Dont know what the criterea would be but, unless other nations qualify to play in tournament, there will still be 51 nations playing in the qualifiers. At the moment thats spread as six groups of six and three of five. I can see that staying the same with first and second from each group qualifying and possibly best four third places from each of the groups of six + current champions + host nation. I know its Uefa we're talking about but that would be the most sensible way.

As far as 2012 is concerned, I think we are sunk. There's a slim chance and we can hope to beat Spain on their own patch but realistically that would be a freak result. They are head, shoulders, and probably several full torsos ahead of us. We can but dream though !

As for 2016 - definitely hope there ! Holders do not qualify automatically, only the hosts, which this time round will be France. A prominent stats website has suggested that the two most logical formats to get the other 23 qualifiers from the 53 nations of UEFA would be .....

• 9 groups: 2x5 + 7x6 (52 nations). In this scenario the top two from each group and the best team in third place would advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.
  
• 10 groups: 8x5 + 2x6 (52 nations). In this scenario the top two from each group advance. The best six teams in third place play-off for the final three spots.
  

It is thought that the 9 group option is clear favourite to be chosen but UEFA has not confirmed anything yet.

The current (Aug 2011) UEFA co-efficient would see us in Pot 4 regardless of the format so trying to get ourselves up from 34th to at worst 27th (in a 9 group draw) or to 30th (in a 10 group draw) is what we need to work at between now and the draw (no idea of date but presumably somewhere between August 2012 and the first qualifying game in August 2014) ..... The next list is released on Sep 9th so I wonder if we go up a little or down ?

Current monthly co-efficient (and possible pots based on that. France excluded [hosts])

columns as follows: current rank - previous rank - country - points

------------------------------

POT 1

------------------------------

1 1 Netherlands 25755

2 2 Spain 25525

3 3 Germany 24627

4 4 Italy 21455

5 5 England 20264

6 6 Sweden 20148

7 7 Greece 19554

8 8 Russia 19309

9 9 Croatia 18961

------------------------------

POT 2

------------------------------

10 10 Slovakia 18906

11 11 Portugal 18524

12 12 Ireland 18226

13 13 Denmark 18152

14 14 Ukraine 17951

15 15 Israel 16815

16 16 Montenegro 16671

17 17 Czech Republic 16631

18 18 Norway 16606

------------------------------

POT 3

------------------------------

19 19 Slovenia 16523

20 20 Hungary 16221

21 21 Bosnia-Herzegovina 16151

22 22 Turkey 15764

23 23 Belarus 15622

24 24 Serbia 15524

25 27 Northern Ireland 15174

26 25 Belgium 14360

27 26 Switzerland 14201

------------------------------

POT 4

------------------------------

28 28 Romania 13741

29 29 Finland 13601

30 30 Austria 13458

31 31 Poland 12751

32 32 Bulgaria 12681

33 33 Albania 12597

34 34 Scotland 12388

35 35 Armenia 12074

36 36 Latvia 11964

------------------------------

POT 5

------------------------------

37 37 Georgia 11623

38 38 Lithuania 11390

39 39 Estonia 11336

40 40 Moldova 10414

41 41 Macedonia 10242

42 42 Cyprus 9631

43 43 Kazakhstan 8587

44 45 Azerbaijan 8467

45 46 Liechtenstein 8310

------------------------------

POT 6

------------------------------

46 44 Faroe Islands 8225

47 47 Wales 8020

48 48 Iceland 7735

49 49 Luxembourg 7019

50 50 Malta 5573

51 51 Andorra 5240

52 52 San Marino 4597

[Scotty]

I notice that the Dutch football federation has demoted the ref from the Czech game based on his performances ...... He is (was) the a top tier ref, is on the FIFA list, and was expected to be the Dutch nomination for Euro 2012.

However, former top Dutch referee Dick Jol told the media that Blom will not be the referee that the KNVB send to Euro2012 and admitted he was not surprised by his showing. ?The decision has been made and Bjorn Kuipers will be the one the KNVB will be nominating for the European Championships. Actually, Blom's display didn't surprise me. Last season he dished out five red cards and most of them were dropped on review. The difference between normal refereeing and refereeing at the highest level is in the final phase of a match. That's when most red cards, penalties and decisive goals occur. That's when a referee has to be extra sharp and be right on top of all situations."

to the Dutch Federation !

[ICTPaisley]

I notice that the Dutch football federation has demoted the ref from the Czech game based on his performances ...... He is (was) the a top tier ref, is on the FIFA list, and was expected to be the Dutch nomination for Euro 2012.

However, former top Dutch referee Dick Jol told the media that Blom will not be the referee that the KNVB send to Euro2012 and admitted he was not surprised by his showing. "The decision has been made and Bjorn Kuipers will be the one the KNVB will be nominating for the European Championships. Actually, Blom's display didn't surprise me. Last season he dished out five red cards and most of them were dropped on review. The difference between normal refereeing and refereeing at the highest level is in the final phase of a match. That's when most red cards, penalties and decisive goals occur. That's when a referee has to be extra sharp and be right on top of all situations."

to the Dutch Federation !

It just makes me feel worse about the outcome on Saturday.

[Scotty]

We cant do anything about the outcome on Saturday, and there is no way to know what would have happened in those last few minutes if he had not awarded the Czechs a penalty ... Would we still have pressed for a third - and been denied a penalty ? or would we have sat back and conceded a soft equalising goal some other way (probably with the last kick of the ball) ?

It is what it is and there is no point feeling worse about it. However, it is good to know that the guy who screwed up two vital decisions will also have to face the ramifications of his own ineptitude !!! Karma's a bitch !!! :biggrin:

[Sorted]

Good for the Dutch. Nice to see that at least one governing body has the gumption to address such a lamentable performance.

Can we do it? No

Are we making progress? No (despite the protestations of our shagging legend goalkeeper a fortunate home point, even allowing for the ref as the stats prove, against the poorest Czech side in generations and a scraped win against Vilnius of Midlothian doesn't impress this poster)

Will we make a set of finals in my lifetime? Probably not (unless we decide that the way out of our economic crisis is to undertake a programme of stadia builds throughout our nation and gain free entry as hosts)

Am I bothered? Not hugely. Despite being a very patriotic Scot I can't get enthused about the 'national' team as most of those wearing the jersey have no connection with out wee country. Listening to that Lairg Legend Craig Mackail-Smith talking about 'us', 'we' etc on the radio the other night almost made me crash.

[bauhaus]

We may have another minnow to trip us up soon. Sepp Blatter, FIFA , EUFA and CONCOCAF were in Greenland the week before I was up there on holiday discussing their admission to the world family of football. They have seemingly been prevented from competing by the lack of a grass pitch. Well with global warming and all that, they were up inspecting the standard of a grass football pitch which the Greenland FA have been growing in one of their most southerly cities ( Qaqortoq if i remember ) They are mad passionate about football, and have a number of players who can represent them playing in Danish football. Jesper Groenkjer ex Chelsea was their best known player, but had to play for Denmark as would any other up until now. FIFA have to decide if they compete in North America or Europe seemingly.

If they are admitted to UEFA that would just leave one group with the lesser amount of games, and I have heard their is a possibility of one other new nation competing ( think it was going to be Herzogovinia, becoming seperate from Bosnia )

[Alex MacLeod]

We may have another minnow to trip us up soon. Sepp Blatter, FIFA , EUFA and CONCOCAF were in Greenland the week before I was up there on holiday discussing their admission to the world family of football. They have seemingly been prevented from competing by the lack of a grass pitch. Well with global warming and all that, they were up inspecting the standard of a grass football pitch which the Greenland FA have been growing in one of their most southerly cities ( Qaqortoq if i remember ) They are mad passionate about football, and have a number of players who can represent them playing in Danish football. Jesper Groenkjer ex Chelsea was their best known player, but had to play for Denmark as would any other up until now. FIFA have to decide if they compete in North America or Europe seemingly.

If they are admitted to UEFA that would just leave one group with the lesser amount of games, and I have heard their is a possibility of one other new nation competing ( think it was going to be Herzogovinia, becoming seperate from Bosnia )

I dont think that can happen. Bosnia-Herzegovina is the name of one single country. There is no geographic border between the two names. Total population is less that 4 million and is made up of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats.

[ICTPaisley]

We may have another minnow to trip us up soon. Sepp Blatter, FIFA , EUFA and CONCOCAF were in Greenland the week before I was up there on holiday discussing their admission to the world family of football. They have seemingly been prevented from competing by the lack of a grass pitch. Well with global warming and all that, they were up inspecting the standard of a grass football pitch which the Greenland FA have been growing in one of their most southerly cities ( Qaqortoq if i remember ) They are mad passionate about football, and have a number of players who can represent them playing in Danish football. Jesper Groenkjer ex Chelsea was their best known player, but had to play for Denmark as would any other up until now. FIFA have to decide if they compete in North America or Europe seemingly.

If they are admitted to UEFA that would just leave one group with the lesser amount of games, and I have heard their is a possibility of one other new nation competing ( think it was going to be Herzogovinia, becoming seperate from Bosnia )

I dont think that can happen. Bosnia-Herzegovina is the name of one single country. There is no geographic border between the two names. Total population is less that 4 million and is made up of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats.

I always thought they were seperated geographically just not with a real line marked down as to what belongs to who. Bosnia was the majority of the country from the North made up of Croats and to the South more Serbs which made up Herzegovina.

[Alex MacLeod]

C&P from CIA website

within Bosnia and Herzegovina's recognized borders, the country is divided into a joint Bosniak/Croat Federation (about 51% of the territory) and the Bosnian Serb-led Republika Srpska or RS (about 49% of the territory); the region called Herzegovina is contiguous to Croatia and Montenegro, and traditionally has been settled by an ethnic Croat majority in the west and an ethnic Serb majority in the east

Personally I think its more likely that the country of Bosnia-Herzegovina would be reduced in size by parts of it being taken over by Serbia and Croatia rather that a new country being formed.

As things stand at the moment this country is working very hard to become full members of the EU and of NATO so I wouldn't think they'd jeoperdise that with internal unrest. I do, however, think there will be more breakaway countries formed within the former Soviet Union in the not too distant future and that the UEFA membership will increase. None of that is going to help our chances of reaching finals.......not unless we can convince the great players from those countries that they are really Scottish.

[bauhaus]

Had to laugh tonight listening to the radio. I think it was Sportsound , and they were talking about Celtic getting back into Europe because of Sion playing several unregistered players. Tam Cowan says he looked at that for complaining to UEFA after the Czech game, but suddenly it dawned on him that thinking it couldnt get worse for the Scottish game, he realised that it wasnt the Czechs that played with players who weren't born in their own country.

[Renegade]

If they are admitted to UEFA that would just leave one group with the lesser amount of games, and I have heard their is a possibility of one other new nation competing ( think it was going to be Herzogovinia, becoming seperate from Bosnia )

I think that's Kosovo you're thinking of.