Sign in to follow this  
Alex MacLeod

EU In or Out

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, DoofersDad said:

 

This is why Sturgeon is correct now that she has changed her tune and is telling voters that the best way to secure Scottish independence is to ensure the UK remains in Europe.  If the UK remains in the EU then the sizeable UKIP wing of the SNP will not have that dilemma to face and the "Yes" vote will be stronger.   

Two comments; The SNP do not have a UKIP wing far less a sizeable on. Secondly; The First Minister has not changed her tune, she has campaigned actively for Remain since the referendum was announced as, to be fair, has every politician of any significance in the land.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any predictions for the result? Polls have it neck and neck, roughly 42% Leave, 42% Remain and a sizeable 16% undecided.

I can't help thinking, or at least hoping, that when it comes to the crunch, people who are (rightly) sceptical of the EU and all its flaws and downsides will conclude that it's still a better option than the risks presented by the alternative. So I'll go for 55% Remain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was late to the polling station today and the clerks there were commenting how low the turnout was.  My fear is that with the bookies confident of a remain vote and share prices and sterling being boosted this week in the expectation of a Remain vote, many people who are in favour of staying in the EU will not bother to turn out and there will be a narrow majority for "Leave".  I agree that the "Don't knows" are more likely to vote "Remain" if they actually vote but I also think Leave voters will be more motivated to vote.  I think it will be very close.  I'll say 51.5% Remain to 48.5% leave.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, DoofersDad said:

I was late to the polling station today and the clerks there were commenting how low the turnout was.  My fear is that with the bookies confident of a remain vote and share prices and sterling being boosted this week in the expectation of a Remain vote, many people who are in favour of staying in the EU will not bother to turn out and there will be a narrow majority for "Leave".  I agree that the "Don't knows" are more likely to vote "Remain" if they actually vote but I also think Leave voters will be more motivated to vote.  I think it will be very close.  I'll say 51.5% Remain to 48.5% leave.

Laura Kuenssberg on the BBC has just said that she has had a number of anecdotal reports from across the country of turnout being high. In Gibraltar, it's 84% but I don't think anything at all can be drawn from that atypical voting region.

  • Disagree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Suggestion is that there has been a high turnout UK wide. My local polling station was certainly busy this morning. I suspect a high turnout will favour Remain. I'll go for 56% to 44% in favour of Remain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

May I just correct a point in DD's summation. The actual question was 'Which party did you vote for in 2015 general election'. Now I personally know Labour supporters who voted SNP to oust Jim whatshisface. I also know many LibDems who were sickened by the Carmichael saga and voted SNP. There was also a lot of hope among some party supporters that tactical voting would weaken the Tory stronghold Just because people voted for one party in one election does not make them that parties voters or supporters. The fact is the party faithful stood by the wishes of the leadership and voted for the good of the whole UK and not for the political progression of the few

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Alex MacLeod said:

Now I personally know Labour supporters who voted SNP to oust Jim whatshisface. I also know many LibDems who were sickened by the Carmichael saga and voted SNP.

Much as I retain a degree of scepticism about the "I know loads of guys at my work who don't attend ICT games because of the merger" type of assertion, you seem to be saying that, in a first past the post election where a small swing has a big effect on seats, the 56, 55, 54 is to a large extent the product of tactical voting by disgruntled Labour and LibDem people who have no interest in separation?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Alex MacLeod said:

May I just correct a point in DD's summation. The actual question was 'Which party did you vote for in 2015 general election'. Now I personally know Labour supporters who voted SNP to oust Jim whatshisface. I also know many LibDems who were sickened by the Carmichael saga and voted SNP. There was also a lot of hope among some party supporters that tactical voting would weaken the Tory stronghold Just because people voted for one party in one election does not make them that parties voters or supporters. The fact is the party faithful stood by the wishes of the leadership and voted for the good of the whole UK and not for the political progression of the few

You may be correct - but if so, that merely strengthens my point.  The polling data showed that UK wide, Labour and Lib Dem voters were more pro EU than SNP voters.  If the SNP vote was boosted by folk who would normally vote Labour or Lib Dem, then it indicates that the hardcore SNP support has an even higher element of Euro sceptics than I was suggesting.  But we shouldn't be too surprised by this polling data, after all, there is consistency in being a euro-sceptic nationalist.  If you want Scotland to have  control over its own destiny then wanting to sever legislative ties with both the UK and Europe seems the logical position to take.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DoofersDad said:

The polling data showed that UK wide, Labour and Lib Dem voters were more pro EU than SNP voters.  If the SNP vote was boosted by folk who would normally vote Labour or Lib Dem, then it indicates that the hardcore SNP support has an even higher element of Euro sceptics than I was suggesting. 

DD - this is bang out of order! You are denying the Nats their orgy of selfrighteous indignation. Shame on you! "Pure Dead Bilin', Drumchapel" and "Aghast, Aberdeenshire" - along, of course, with "Seriously Offended Failed First Minister, Strichen" will all have a Cybernat contract out on you.

By the way, they normally attack first by lifting the kilt from the back  before inserting the dirk - so be sure to wear trousers!

  • Disagree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Charles, some of the points you make in your posts are very valid, but the validity of them is lost as a result of all the utter sh*te you post as well.  Your point earlier about euro-sceptic SNP voters abstaining was a very interesting point and worth further discussion, but all this nonsense about a Cybernat contract etc seriously harms the credibility of any argument you have.  I appreciate that there is an element of tongue in cheek but it is perhaps worth reflecting on the fact that for all its faults, we live in a democracy where we can be very critical of the party of Government and have absolutely no fear of any repercussions on our civil liberties.  Unless we treat the democratic process and our political opponents with respect, that may not always be the case.

The serious political point that both of us are making is that there is a significant silent minority of SNP voters who do not follow the strong pro-EU line of the party membership.  The implications of that can safely be discussed without fear of a dirk up the jacksie.  It is now a serious possibility that Scotland could become independent following a second indy referendum called on the back of "being dragged out of the EU against our will".    Presumably, if an independent Scotland applies to join the EU, we would need yet another referendum to confirm the will of the people on this.  Having gained independence, that is when those nationalists who believe that having control of your own destiny means being independent from both the UK and the EU, will come out of the woodwork.  We might vote to stay out of Europe!  So having voted to stay in the UK and to stay in the EU, we might end up in neither!  Best just to accept the will of the people in the 2 referendums we've just have.  This will then allow the SNP to do what they have been elected to do - govern the country  for the good of the country rather than pursue a goal which the people have already emphatically rejected.

  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DD - I'm really not worried at all about what anybody who is seriously interested in politics thinks about what I think about politics. As far as I am concerned, politicians are almost universally beyond contempt (except that the SNP are further beyond contempt than the rest) and deserve any and every source of ridicule that comes their way.  Most of them only differ from the Ceaucescus in that the Ceaucescus got put up against a wall and shot. These self seeking chancers deserve to a man and woman every opprobrium we can confer on them. Politics in its current form really has no right to be taken seriously at all.

That is partly why we have political sketch writers (aka p!ss takers) in our newspapers. The seekers after sexual self gratification who con their way into being elected need to be held to account by way of ridicule.

It goes right down to local level where, for instance, local councillors, faced with almost unprecedented austerity and Inverness degenerating into a slum city, seem to occupy their time with a proposed diving board for drunks at Eden Court.

Edited by Charles Bannerman
  • Disagree 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the reporting following the appalling murder of Jo Cox brought home to a lot of people just how hard many MPs work and the kind of motivation and dedication they have.  Of course there are bad eggs amongst them and often they are less than honest in the way they argue their case, but the vast majority enter politics because they want to make the world, or just their local community, a better place.  Most make huge sacrifices in terms of jobs they give up and in time with family and friends. And, as Ms Cox's murder has highlighted, many MPs get bombarded with hate mail and threats.  To carry on with serving the people the way they do in these circumstances demonstrates the strength of their motivation.  This is true right across the political divide.  

At a very local level, the chair of our local community council must spend hours every day in engaging in discussions with all sorts of official bodies in trying to make life better for local residents.  This might be in trying to improve Broadband provision, getting potholes repaired in the roads, completing applications to get improvements in a community hall, responding to consultation papers, phoning round to get helpers for a pensioners lunch etc.  All very unglamorous and with the sole reward being the feeling that he making life a little bit better for local people.  And yet there are people who will complain to him that the Community Council has not done this or that despite those who complain not doing a single thing to help in anything themselves.  These people deserve our respect regardless of political persuasion.  If they abuse their position of public trust then by all means take them to task, but to compare the lot of them to evil despots like the Ceaucescus is simply sick.  If our politicians were remotely like the Ceaucescus you, Charles, would have disappeared long ago.

 

 

  • Agree 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This chart from BBC, based on Ashcroft's poll of over 12,000 voters is quite revealing and explains why we've ended up with this outcome.

chart.png

Old people are more likely to vote Leave (and let's face it, are more likely to be racist as well!). Crucially, old people are more likely to vote. The areas with the oldest population had higher turnouts than the younger areas.

What's somewhat galling is that the vote was swung by pensioners, who basically don't have to face the same consequences that the rest of us do.  They don't need to worry about redundancy or their future job prospects. They have a guaranteed income that is also guaranteed to increase every year whatever happens. They pay little income tax so don't need to worry about the fiscal consequences of an economic downturn. They don't have mortgages, so don't need to worry about possible increases caused by our worse credit rating.

They are, however, the heaviest users of the NHS, and would no doubt have been tempted by the claim that leaving the EU will free up £350m a week for the NHS, which Farage admitted mere hours after the polls closed was a false claim.

What a mess.  :sad:

  • Agree 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Yngwie said:

What's somewhat galling is that the vote was swung by pensioners, who basically don't have to face the same consequences that the rest of us do.  They don't need to worry about redundancy or their future job prospects. They have a guaranteed income that is also guaranteed to increase every year whatever happens. They pay little income tax so don't need to worry about the fiscal consequences of an economic downturn. They don't have mortgages, so don't need to worry about possible increases caused by our worse credit rating.

They are, however, the heaviest users of the NHS, and would no doubt have been tempted by the claim that leaving the EU will free up £350m a week for the NHS, which Farage admitted mere hours after the polls closed was a false claim.

What a mess.  :sad:

I see where you are coming from and, remembering voting patterns in September 2014, if any second Scottish vote were to go "Leave" (the UK) you could actually take the quoted passage and replace "pensioners" with "benefit recipients" and it would largely still hold. Then for "£350m a week for the NHS" read "$113 a barrel".... except that, nearly 2 years on, Salmond still hasn't even had the grace to admit to his totally false claim.

(OK.... I wonder whose post will be first to cause Serial Offence? Yngwie's or mine?:smile:)

Edited by Charles Bannerman
  • Agree 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm in the 55-64 age bracket but voted to remain.  It seems that social media is alive with youngsters having a go at us oldies for ruining their future. But before folk get too carried away with criticising us oldies, I think there are a few points to bear in mind.

Firstly, if the young want to have a pop at anyone, how about starting with those in their own age group who couldn't be bothered to vote.  They could also have a pop at the Government for not allowing 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote in a referendum which so clearly affects their futures.

Secondly, whilst a referendum on such a big constitutional issue clearly does have more implications for the future of younger people, older people are likely to have children and grandchildren and will be well aware of the implications for them when deciding how to vote.

Thirdly, older people obviously have more experience of life and will look at issues in the light of that experience.   If you have lived through all our 40 years in Europe as an adult, you have a bit more experience of the project to know how it has delivered on expectations over the years.

Fourthly, the kind of angry reaction there has been displays a real arrogance.  There is almost an assumption that remaining in Europe was the correct choice and all the 17 million who voted to leave are either selfish or stupid.  The fact is, there is no right or wrong about this.  Nobody can possibly know whether we will be better or worse off in 20 years time by leaving the EU.   

Finally, and linked to the last point, everyone is entitled to their opinions and rather than vilify people for having different views, the constructive thing to do is to engage in civilised debate.  Rather than having a pop at the pensioner leavers, it would be better to criticise the Remain campaign for failing to appreciate and to address the extent and depth of the concerns people have regarding the EU (and immigration in particular).

Recriminations won't help.  We are where we are and the road ahead is not going to be easy.  What we need now is for folk on both sides of the debate to work constructively together to make the future work.

  • Agree 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

 

I find it really hard to believe that anyone voted leave, especially oldies like me .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can someone tell me how people know who voted what ?

Supposed to be a secret ballot

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 "Something Happened"  but what ?

Did the Elite get a bloody nose from the Non Elite , if so why ?

By Elite can I mention David Cameron Jeremy Corbin, The IMF, The G7 , The USA , But most of all France Germany Italy amongst others. Including the Britt's living abroad

Why did over 50% of the population show two fingers to the people who boss us about, but significantly not the Scots or the Irish

Maybe you can put it down to Leadership, The Scot had its latter day " Maid of Orleans "  The Irish had the republican movement,  ( aiming to unify their Island, ?

Did the media go about it all wrong. ? Did the Confrontational broadcasts not help, Some form of explanation of all the facts was not forthcoming.

 

Is the person in the street suitably equipped to make judgements of this nature. Or will we just het knee jerk reactions based on immigration in our own back yard.

Can someone exp[ain to the million or  more  British  living and working on the Iberian peninsular

 ?that they could be extradited  at the drop of a hats l

Little Englander strikes again?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh heck.    

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/faisal-islam-brexit-no-plan_uk_576fe22ee4b0d2571149cffd?cdj84pt2m1v2t9

Sky News  political editor Faisal Islam has been left speechless after claiming a Conservative pro-Brexit MP told him the Leave campaign “didn’t have a plan” for Brexit and “number 10 should have had one”.

Islam appeared stunned, and presenter Anna Botting didn’t know what to say after Islam revealed Tory MP told him “there is no plan” after the UK voted to leave the European Union.

Did rather wonder why Cameron shot out the door so fast...because obviously he doesn't have one either.  

Saw a remark on FB earlier, which describes where the UK is, currently, rather well......"Asked cat for his actual opinion on EU & he thinks we should repeatedly ask to leave, then when the door opens just sit there & stare at it."

Quite ironic, when you remember the hoohah over no plan B for the currency in the indyref.....where is the furore over not even a plan A for the UK after voting for Brexit? 

Edited by Oddquine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty sure all the people of responsibility would refute a throwaway comment from (no doubt) a backbench nonentity that there is no plan, but there does seem to have been a distinct lack of scrutiny from the voting public (and the media) placed upon the Leave campaign as to what would actually happen if we voted for them. Clearly the PM had his own plan - to try to maintain a semblance of short term stability then quickly hand over the keys of the asylum, and who can blame him.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ruth Davidson was actually pretty impressive in the BBC debate just before the referendum.  She repeatedly attacked the Leave side for their lack of any plans following a Brexit.  She said "it simply isn't good enough" nearly as often as the Leavers asked us to "take back control".  Sadly, the leaders of the UK Government and official opposition parties were as woefully inept in this referendum as they were in the last one.

But, yes, it is almost beyond belief that the Leave camp should expect No 10 to have the plan for us leaving the EU, after all, No 10 don't even have a plan for us staying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.