Could we drop down to 4th tonight?

[tm4tj]

Well, could we, as Hearts take on St Johnstone.............

Hearts as well as struggling for quality players have plenty out injured, looks as though Perth will be favourites to jump above us.

[tm4tj]

oooh

 

1-0 to Hearts

[Scotty]

2-0 Hearts .. if it finishes this way it stops St Johnstone going above us and drops St Mirren to 11th (bonus)

[tm4tj]

Yep all over and we stay 3rd.

[caley100]

Aye, good result for us, now Dee have a tough one vs Midden hopefully which will tire them out a wee bit for a fresh ICT on saturday!

[Kingsmills]

Just what I was thinking. Dundee had a tough derby match in the cup while our guys were enjoying their Sunday lunch and play again in a competitive looking fixture again tomorrow night.

 

Surely that must give us the advantage on Saturday.

[Rasczak]

And if St Mirren win tomorrow, then we are arithmetically safe from relegation. Would this be the earliest in the season we have been safe as an SPL club ?

[Charles Bannerman]

And if St Mirren win tomorrow, then we are arithmetically safe from relegation. Would this be the earliest in the season we have been safe as an SPL club ?

The basis on which you seem to be calculating safety from relegation (not that this has been an issue this season anyway) isn't quite right. You appear to be going on the bottom club (Dundee) no longer being able to catch ICT. However for any club to be relegated, ALL the teams below it need to be able to catch it and the point at which there are no longer enough points left for this to happen is usually earlier than a lot of people think.

[Alex MacLeod]

The only way we can be relegated is to lose every game from now on in and Dundee win every game. Is that a possibility?

[CaleyThistle]

The only way we can be relegated is to lose every game from now on in and Dundee win every game. Is that a possibility?

NO!

[CaleyThistle]

Great result for ICT! A win on saturday would go a long way to securing top 6!

[Alex MacLeod]

Great result for ICT! A win on saturday would go a long way to securing top 6!

We dont just have Dundee. We also have the three teams immediately below us to contend with. There's just not enough gap between us and bottom six at the moment so every point will be needed.

[Rasczak]

And if St Mirren win tomorrow, then we are arithmetically safe from relegation. Would this be the earliest in the season we have been safe as an SPL club ?

The basis on which you seem to be calculating safety from relegation (not that this has been an issue this season anyway) isn't quite right. You appear to be going on the bottom club (Dundee) no longer being able to catch ICT. However for any club to be relegated, ALL the teams below it need to be able to catch it and the point at which there are no longer enough points left for this to happen is usually earlier than a lot of people think.

I  know that it can work like that, for example at the split, ie with 5 games to play, forgetting goal difference, even if you are only 14 points ahead of last place, being only 13 points over next to last will still make you safe as at least one of the teams will drop points to the other

As it sits, all sides can currently obtain enough points to overtake us, Dundee can make 30, we are 28 ahead. In the event of Dundeed getting all 30 and use none, then St Mirren would get maximum 26, and are only 11 behind, Heart, could still get near 20 and are 10 behind, every-one else is within 6 points and there are enough points left for all to get that. If you can work out what combination of results, makes it impossible for at least one team to still make 43 points with a -1 goal difference, the minimum we will get this season is 43 points and -2 GD, then let me know.

 

The main point I was making though is have we ever been safe before the split before ? I think even in the 7th place seasons it was after the first game after before we were safe.

[12th Man]

Another question,  theres a mighty club currently in div 3 who are still 4 games from winning the league cup, on what date did we win the div3  cup and how does that compare with Rangers 

[Charles Bannerman]

The only way we can be relegated is to lose every game from now on in and Dundee win every game. Is that a possibility?

Alex.. let me first emphasise that we are debating a theoretical as opposed to a remotely possible outcome here! But I'm not even sure that what you would describe would relegate ICT. The reason is that not only Dundee but all the other intervening clubs would also have to overtake Inverness. I am not sure whether there are enough points on the board for that to happen although it might just still be possible this time given how dreadfully far Dundee are behind everyone else.

The general point I am trying to make here is that theoretical, arithmetical safety for a club quite often comes some time BEFORE the bottom club can no longer catch them because you have to have enough points left to play for so that ALL the clubs can do so.

[Alex MacLeod]

Theoretically and practically we will not be relegated.

[12th Man]

The only way we can be relegated is to lose every game from now on in and Dundee win every game. Is that a possibility?

Alex.. let me first emphasise that we are debating a theoretical as opposed to a remotely possible outcome here! But I'm not even sure that what you would describe would relegate ICT. The reason is that not only Dundee but all the other intervening clubs would also have to overtake Inverness. I am not sure whether there are enough points on the board for that to happen although it might just still be possible this time given how dreadfully far Dundee are behind everyone else.

The general point I am trying to make here is that theoretical, arithmetical safety for a club quite often comes some time BEFORE the bottom club can no longer catch them because you have to have enough points left to play for so that ALL the clubs can do so.

That would normally be the case if a few clubs were down at the bottom but in this instance we could still be relegated, worse case scenario of course as Rasczac has highlighted but thats as likely to happen as Rangers not wining a cup this season 

[tm4tj]

It's impossible for us to get relegated now.

[Kylef]

Wow, Midden were 1 up, now it's 2 - 1 Dundee. Could be the first win under big Bomber Brown.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Kylef

[bdu98196]

Lets hope Dundee haven't suddenly found form, just in time for our visit.

[12th Man]

It's impossible for us to get relegated now.

 not impossible but highly improbable. Just like Celtic havent won the league cup yet.

[Tichy_Blacks_Back]

2-1 Dundee in the end - is the big comeback on :-))

[Sneckboy]

Another question,  theres a mighty club currently in div 3 who are still 4 games from winning the league cup, on what date did we win the div3  cup and how does that compare with Rangers 

 

It was 12th April '97 when Inverness clinched their Division 3 Title. Game 32 of 36.  It looks very likely The Rangers will easily 'beat' that, probably securing the League later this month.

[The Mantis]

It's impossible for us to get relegated now.

not impossible but highly improbable. As Mr Bannerman hinted above, it would probably take a computer to work out the permutations involved since all 9 clubs below us are involved in playing each other.

All 9 would have to pass us while at the same time taking points off each other. So my gut feeling is that Mannie is right.

Almost as complicated is whether we can be knocked out of the top six by 4 of the teams below us. They only have 4 games left, apart from St Johnstone who have 3. If you make top six you can't be relegated anyway......

Edited March 7, 2013 by TheMantis

[Yngwie]

 

It's impossible for us to get relegated now.

not impossible but highly improbable. As Mr Bannerman hinted above, it would probably take a computer to work out the permutations involved since all 9 clubs below us are involved in playing each other.

All 9 would have to pass us while at the same time taking points off each other. So my gut feeling is that Mannie is right.

Almost as complicated is whether we can be knocked out of the top six by 4 of the teams below us. They only have 4 games left, apart from St Johnstone who have 3. If you make top six you can't be relegated anyway......

 

I've done it in a spreadsheet, and we can still be relegated. On a more positive note, we can still win the title too.

 

But in reality neither are going to happen.