Napsters Performance

[Canada Bob]

Just been looking over the Naps Table, it's amazing that this late in the season almost half of the Napsters are still in pocket, seems to me that we have all learned how to bet better in an attempt to get into the prize money, pity that most of us don't take that strategy into the betting shop. For the most part picking teams to win brings meagre results, backing the draw seems to be the better way, trouble with that is, when yer at a match you've no one to shout for.

Other than the above most of the folks who have been there abouts in the last few years are up there in contention again, but there's also some surprises in who is languishing down there in the relegation zone.

[clacher_holiday2]

If most punters in the shops didnt go for ridiculous accumulators every week then youd find the prices of all the teams would be totally different, especially draws in games where the favorites at home. Not one person won a fixed odds line in my shop yesterday, but they were all on half a dozen winners, if punters split their ?5 stake across their 10 teams then most folk would end up seeing themselves in a bit of profit and the markets would have to become more efficient, Tranmere yesterday would still be 1/2 but more of the market % wouldve shifted from the draw to the away side, so the odds of the draw couldve been down to 7/4 even, if everybody did nothing but back singles then itd have to happen.

This comp skews things a bit as people end up chasing, people drop out by not picking anything, its a pattern reflected in the shops over the course of a day, stretched out over a season.

Picking draws is very difficult, I've not attempted to find one all year and I wont be from here on in.

If anybody wants to know the real secret to making a profit out of football then I'll let you know.... get a Betdaq or Betfair account, do all the normal work that goes into picking out teams, if anything looks like AMAZING value on the odds then ignore it as youve simply been out thought by the compiler.. if something looks like GOOD value then LAY the other team.

Going back to the Tranmere game yesterday Bob, backing Hereford to lose at about 1/7 on Betfair might not be the most appealing move in the world, but by HT they wouldve need 3 goals to win the bet, your blood pressure wouldnt of gone awol at 2-1. Look through your betting results and look at every Draw youve picked, they wouldve been winners.

Its difficult telling people that placing bets that are effectively heavy odds on shots is the way to make money out of football, most of my laying bets would be at about 3.0-4.0, so to win ?10 youd be risking between ?20 and ?30, but youll always be on the right side of the market at them prices.

[clacher_holiday2]

Been trying to find some of the laying accumulators i placed online this year, can only find a couple fomr the start of the season, these win for me 3/4 weeks..

On betfair it comes out looking like this, the week I played this bet there were FOUR draws, every fav was heavily backed online

5 Selections Chosen

1 Montrose v Annan Ath (Laying Annan Ath @ 3.77)

2 Peterhead v Alloa (Laying Alloa @ 6.61)

3 Dunfermline v Airdrie Utd (Laying Airdrie Utd @ 5.83)

4 Livingston v Clyde (Laying Clyde @ 4.3)

5 Queens Park v Brechin (Laying Queens Park @ 3.88)

5-Folds

Selections Odds* Stake Potential win

1,2,3,4 and 5 3.39 ?25.00 ?59.75

Laying doubles are always a sound investment, laying two teams at 3.5 returns about evens, its not easy but it does work, getting into the mindset that risking ?20 to win ?10 or ?20 is easy when you actually start winning cash

[Canada Bob]

Going back to the Tranmere game yesterday Bob, backing Hereford to lose at about 1/7 on Betfair might not be the most appealing move in the world, but by HT they wouldve need 3 goals to win the bet, your blood pressure wouldnt of gone awol at 2-1.

Yea but, No but, I dint even see the goal, I was on me way to the car park, sure as hell that the game was over