Flu Pandemic

[clacher_holiday2]

Just watching on the news there, its popped up in Spain and Germany now, aswell as the Far East and North America.

The last time this one did the rounds it killed 50-80 million people globally in 1918, it attacks the young and healthy, those with a weak immune system were safe back then and should be again.

Does anybody know anything about it? Is this another SARS or Bird Flu? (in that itll only kill a handful of people)

[Canada Bob]

Just watching on the news there, its popped up in Spain and Germany now, aswell as the Far East and North America.

The last time this one did the rounds it killed 50-80 million people globally in 1918, it attacks the young and healthy, those with a weak immune system were safe back then and should be again.

Does anybody know anything about it? Is this another SARS or Bird Flu? (in that itll only kill a handful of people)

Just to prove that I can't be right about anything the now, here's my thoughts on it...

I doubt we can compare this to the pandemic of almost 100 years ago, my granddad's brother was one of the victims in that. The thing is, the general health {diet etc} wasn't as good then, there were no anti virals and hospital care wasn't as high tech as it can be now.

Add to that, this new strain although it seems to be very contagious it aint killing a high percentage of the folks who get it, so like bird flu / SARS my guess is more folks will drop dead whilst reading about it than from it...

The only thing we need to fear, is fear itself, but... WTF do I know...

Edited April 27, 2009 by Canada Bob

[PullMyFinger]

Is this the swine flu?

If so we just need to make sure we stay indoors when Falkirk win the cup. (Flying pigs?)

[CaleyD]

According to the papers it's the end of the world.....I might be stupid, but this is about the 20th "End of World" moment I've experienced in my lifetime, and I kinda get the feeling that's not how it should work!!!

[Scotty]

There have been several cases of flu like symptoms reported in Canada (Vancouver / Nova Scotia) and in the USA from people returning from Mexico (our equivalent of Ibiza or Aya Napa).

So far, all cases in Canada seem to be clearing up after a couple of days and a catholic school in New York state is in quarantine as there was a recent trip to Cancun and some of the students reported flu-like symptoms that also seem to be clearing up after a couple of days.

Canada has something like 60 million doses of flu vaccine available which has been part of the preparedness system since SARS hit in 2003 so I am with Bob on this one .... it is (currently) being blown out of all proportion.

[absent friend]

Whilst I accept that 'it is not the end of the world' or 'as it was 100 years ago' - however I do not remember a potential block on international movements before, as is being discussed currently, for release tomorrow, as I understand it.

Quarantine, for the arrival of passengers, is also being mentioned as an interim step.

This could have an enormous effect on all travel firms and airlines, with the wee ones, already living on shoestrings, maybe having to close up shop.

Maybe the flight to the Costas will get the go by this year in favour of Gairloch (no, the midges) - maybe Dornoch then.

18 holes in the summer weather in Dornoch (wet suit on over the heavy jumper) will kill the bugs and pneumonia is easier to get over, I understand.

[clacher_holiday2]

I guess youre right Bob, if any of us do catch this swine flu then we should be able to deal with it.

Theres other differences between now and then, on the negative side we all travel alot more, if a deadly virus really was to start spreading (maybe not this one) then itd take about a day to get around the world, it took 20 years for the plague to reach the UK from the middle east ffs. On the positive side we're all better informed and educated, in 1918 how would any of us know about Mexican swine flu? It'd trickle into the papers after a week or so but then half of us would be illiterate!

[clacher_holiday2]

Just reading a bit more about it and I'm not as confident as CaleyD that its just another round of press hysteria, as it now seems that the Mexicans have lied about the number of people who have died and the demographics involved, just like in 1918 most of the worst cases are males between 20-30.

Not time to start stocking up on food and water just yet but it could kill a few people this one, SARS never caught on because it was difficult to contract, this swine flu apparently is very easy to contract, thus easy to spread.

[Canada Bob]

I guess youre right Bob, if any of us do catch this swine flu then we should be able to deal with it.

Don't bet yer life on it, they way my judgement is the now we'll all be deed in 12 months...

Theres other differences between now and then, on the negative side we all travel alot more, if a deadly virus really was to start spreading (maybe not this one) then itd take about a day to get around the world, it took 20 years for the plague to reach the UK from the middle east ffs. On the positive side we're all better informed and educated, in 1918 how would any of us know about Mexican swine flu? It'd trickle into the papers after a week or so but then half of us would be illiterate!

Much to be said on the upside as above Clacher, but maybe, just maybe "mother earth" has had enough of us, and it looking for a way to either thin us out, or wipe us out. Look at it this way, there were more dinosaurs than people, they ruled the planet for Millions of years without doing any harm to the environment, then along come humans and before you know it we've buggered near everything up.

[Canada Bob]

Just reading a bit more about it and I'm not as confident as CaleyD that its just another round of press hysteria, as it now seems that the Mexicans have lied about the number of people who have died and the demographics involved, just like in 1918 most of the worst cases are males between 20-30.

The less I say about Mexico the better, to me it's the Pakistan of North America...

Not time to start stocking up on food and water just yet but it could kill a few people this one, SARS never caught on because it was difficult to contract, this swine flu apparently is very easy to contract, thus easy to spread.

Yea but, No but, it don't matter "how many people get it" it's how many it kills, and so far {when its caught us with our pants down} it hasn't killed that many, most by far have recovered from whatever it is, so the chance of us being wiped out is remote, and the chance of us being thinned out is almost the same...

Oddly enough, IF it did wipe millions of folks out then excepting for the personal tragedies the overall effect on those who survive could actually be beneficial...

Wish you'd been in the Linden Tree a couple of hours back, the place was packed, just a couple of seats near to us left, when a couple of women from Fife ask "anyone sat here" so I says "no love, have a seat, I'm just having a minute, I'm knackered since I came back from Mexico", wish you'd seen their faces, after a moment the penny dropped, grin...

Edited April 27, 2009 by Canada Bob

[CaleyD]

Don't start on thinning out....my theory that we should shoot everyone over the age of 75 in order to preserve quality of life never goes down well!!!

[Canada Bob]

Here's what I've just got from {as they say} a reliable source...

Page 1

Swine Flu ? Advice to Clients

27 April 2009

The Director-General of the World Health Organisation, Margaret Chan, has confirmed that

the latest outbreak of Swine Flu in Mexico and parts of United States is a new strain of a

humanly transmissible influenza virus, A/H1N1, and has the potential to trigger an influenza

pandemic.

The virus is the result of a re-assortment of components from other types of swine flu, bird

flu and human flu viruses creating a new version of the influenza virus for which existing

population immunity against other strains will be ineffective.

The WHO has convened its Pandemic Task Force. They will advise on whether it should

raise its pandemic alert level from 3 to either 4 or 5. If the level is raised many nations will

then implement pandemic health security measures. These would include travel restrictions,

border closures, banning of public gatherings and issuing drugs to front-line healthcare staff.

The WHO has not raised this to a level 4 or 5 alert although it would appear from the

available information very likely that significant human to human transmission is occurring.

A decision to move to this level is serious with enormous social and economic implications.

WHO will therefore be cautious but has already acknowledged human to human

transmission.

Our advice to our clients at the present time is as follows:

CDC Atlanta ? www.cdc.gov

WHO - www.who.int

are reliable sources of updated information of this emerging viral threat. We suggest that

our clients monitor these sites and that they register for CDC updates.

The number of deaths in Mexico, given the mild nature of the disease where it is being

monitored outside the country suggests to us that it is likely that the prevalence of swine flu

in Mexico is much higher than has been notified by the authorities. This would be consistent

with a comparatively low death rate for this condition and the milder symptoms that are being

seen so far in cases picked up in travellers who have been to Mexico.

Our current advice to our clients is to monitor the situation closely. Restricting travel has not

been recommended however you may wish to consider restricting all but essential travel to

Mexico itself.

Anti virals, both Oseltamivir (tamiflu) and Zanamivir are both considered to be effective for

this strain.

Page 2

Any traveller returning from an area in which swine flu has been reported and who displays

flu like symptoms should not come into work nor attend the doctor but should contact

medical services by phone immediately and seek rapid access to anti viral medication.

As the situation develops companies may wish to consider asking travellers returning from

the highest risk areas in Mexico to work from home for seven days regardless of symptoms.

General measures include meticulous personal hygiene and maintaining a distance of 6ft

from other people. These measures should be observed by anyone in high risk areas who

may also wish to consider utilising a face mask which must reach FDA or comparable

standards.

We will continue to provide updates.

Key messages for businesses:

?

There is no vaccine for this type of flu as it is a new virus. Vaccines are not likely to

be available for several months.

?

The virus appears to be sensitive to antiviral medications and early treatment is effective.

? Travel restrictions are not currently formally recommended but should be considered

at a company and individual level.

?

Anyone returning from an area where swine flu has been reported should contact

health services if they have any symptoms of flu such as fever, headache, cough or

cold like symptoms or gastrointestinal disturbance.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Canada Bob

[CaleyMad]

Two cases of Swine Flu have been found in Scotland.

These cases have been proved positive but has been stated as mild.

EDIT - missed a bit

Edited April 27, 2009 by caleymad

[Canada Bob]

Two cases of Swine Flu have been found in Scotland.

Bugger, "two cases found already" I hope they weren't found in Glasgow, they'd have supped 'em by now...

Edited April 27, 2009 by Canada Bob

[Charles Bannerman]

According to the papers it's the end of the world.....I might be stupid, but this is about the 20th "End of World" moment I've experienced in my lifetime, and I kinda get the feeling that's not how it should work!!!

Oh well Donald, at least it means we'll get a break from Global Warming, The Recession and Susan Bloody Boyle!

[Johnboy]

Oh well Donald, at least it means we'll get a break from Global Warming, The Recession and Susan Bloody Boyle!

Maybe global warming and the recession, but.....

[CaleyD]

Susan Boyle struck down with Swine Flu and Simon Cowell to go bankrupt...or we could just go straight to Cowell get Swine Flu, I'm not fussy.

[Scotty]

The less I say about Mexico the better

I call it Mexi-NO !!!!

With the drug war, the abductions just over the border near Laredo/El Paso, the corruption, the cases of Canadians "falling" from balconies (some of which were probably legit ! but not all), the high profile murder of that Canadian couple (which they tried to pin on two innocent women from backwoods Ontario), the gouging of Canadian tourists in the last few weeks when conquest vacations went bust, and now this .... you wouldnt get me there if they paid me !!!! Give me Cuba or somewhere else in the carribean anyday !!!

[clacher_holiday2]

Off topic but is it not the case that Cuba is dead easy for Canadians to go on holiday with regards to visas etc?

[Charles Bannerman]

This could have an enormous effect on all travel firms and airlines,

Yup, Scotland among the first countries to be affected. That'll be the Year of Homecoming up the tubes then!

[absent friend]

This could have an enormous effect on all travel firms and airlines,

Yup, Scotland among the first countries to be affected. That'll be the Year of Homecoming up the tubes then!

Yep!

Take home something special from your holiday

Swine flu or a blast of radiation - take your pick!

[Yngwie]

The less I say about Mexico the better

I call it Mexi-NO !!!!

With the drug war, the abductions just over the border near Laredo/El Paso, the corruption, the cases of Canadians "falling" from balconies (some of which were probably legit ! but not all), the high profile murder of that Canadian couple (which they tried to pin on two innocent women from backwoods Ontario), the gouging of Canadian tourists in the last few weeks when conquest vacations went bust, and now this .... you wouldnt get me there if they paid me !!!! Give me Cuba or somewhere else in the carribean anyday !!!

Like yourself I'm fortunate enough to have been to both Cuba and Mexico, but I thoroughly enjoyed Mexico - possibly because we steered clear of the notorious places. But Cuba has the distinct advantage of having no American tourists (yet), which is probably why it is so popular with Canadians!

[PullMyFinger]

Are there not plans afoot to form an American Union similar to the EU? That would mean no borders from Mexico to Alaska.

Anyway this is getting off topic. How long til we see the surgical masks at airports again?

[Scotty]

Off topic but is it not the case that Cuba is dead easy for Canadians to go on holiday with regards to visas etc?

It is extremely easy, and pretty reasonably priced. No visas required for entry, just have to pay your cash at the airport for the exit visa !!

Like yourself I'm fortunate enough to have been to both Cuba and Mexico, but I thoroughly enjoyed Mexico - possibly because we steered clear of the notorious places. But Cuba has the distinct advantage of having no American tourists (yet), which is probably why it is so popular with Canadians!

Maybe its a North American thing, but we probably get far more day-to-day information about some of the shady stuff that goes on in Mexico than reaches Europe. You could not pay me to go there.

I am sure that many parts of it are lovely, and safe, but there have been far too many incidents in the last couple of years for me to even contemplate it. I go on holiday to enjoy myself, not to look over my shoulder.

In Cuba on the other hand, I have never felt unsafe. I have not witnessed any incidents there that gave me cause for concern and found the people to be warm and friendly. I would concede that US TV barely acknowledges the existence of the country far less reports on it, so perhaps things happen that never get widely reported. You are right about the lack of American tourists, there are some but they usually come in via Canada, Mexico or Jamaica, never directly. I have a feeling that Obama will probably thaw relations with them though. With Raul now in charge instead of Fidel, and with him (Raul) relaxing some restrictions on things like mobile phones, internet availability and other "democratic" progression, there is a chink of light where it could be done. Obama has already lifted some of the restrictions placed on Cuban Americans who want to go visit family there and I can see that eventually leading to a bit more. If that happens, Cuba has the potential to become a powerhouse. They already have a great education system that turns out thousands of graduates in various industries, excellent medical system (both in terms of patient care and training of doctors who go all over the carribean and central/south America) and of course a great tourist industry but they are basically skint since the USSR dissolved, so with a little investment in the right places they could be a major economic player ... but I am going off topic here so thats a subject for a different thread.

Are there not plans afoot to form an American Union similar to the EU? That would mean no borders from Mexico to Alaska.

Anyway this is getting off topic. How long til we see the surgical masks at airports again?

Cant see that happening unless Mexico, Canada and anyone else who wants in agree to become additional states of the USA !!! There is an economic union of sorts in the shape of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) but it is basically toothless ... as shown in Obama's first days in office when he urged companies to "Buy American". He did water it down when various Canadian industries complained to the Canadian government (especially the Steel industry) but at the end of the day, I cant see it ever happening. The US is far too dominant in size and wealth to be anything but a majority stakeholder in any union and the other countries would not agree to that.

Surgical masks ....... seeing them all over the news now. Listened to a radio report this morning from Pearson Airport (Toronto International) where they were interviewing some cupid stunts who were still flying out to Cancun despite the medical issues ..... most proudly boasted that they had their masks in their hand luggage.

In another twist ..... and adding to my reasons for calling it Mexi-NO, officials from the Mexican government this morning blamed Canada for the outbreak of swine flu !!!

They said that "patient 0" was a tourist from Canada ..... despite the fact that it is now generally accepted that the initial case was a Mexican woman from a well-to-do neighbourhood of Mexico City who died 5 days after first reporting symptoms. Canada has a total of 6 cases, 4 at one side of the country, 2 at the other side. All 6 had recently returned from Mexico, and all have mild symptoms and are recovering. There are no other reported cases in the country so of course it must be Canada's fault !!!! Its a wonder they didnt name two women from backwoods Ontario like they did with the tourist slaying the other year.

Not sure if you get the program in the UK or not (it may be on satellite somewhere), but I would highly recommend "The Daily Show" with Jon Stewart. Its a topical/satirical comedy show in the style of Letterman but with a hard edge to it more recently. Last night he was going on a tirade at Fox, CBS, CNN and all the other news channels who are sensationalising aspects of this outbreak ....

[Alex MacLeod]

Two cases of Swine Flu have been found in Scotland.

These cases have been proved positive but has been stated as mild.

EDIT - missed a bit

Apparantely from Falkirk and just returned from Mexico.

HIV/AIDS was going to destroy the world. Mad Cow disease was going to wipe us all out. SAR's was going to wipe us all out. Various different strains of bird flu..........total disaster. Salmonella............Mathews turkey...............pig flu.........where will the scaremongering end

Fact is, with the flu's, within days of a new strain appearing a vaccine is produced.