Surviving a 15 point penalty?

[Charles Bannerman]

This isn’t a negative post - just an application of some objectivity.
When speaking to the press yesterday, the manager all but ruled out avoiding relegation to League Two if a 15 point administration penalty was to be imposed.

I’ve been looking at League One tables back to 2014 and identifying how many points would have to be gained before the 15 point deduction if survival were to be achieved - “survival” being defined as 16 points clear of each season’s bottom placed club (which of course doesn’t avoid the relegation playoffs).

Clearly that’s most achievable when there’s a real lame duck in the league and the lowest target of 24 points came from last season when Edinburgh City were awful. The next lowest were 32 in 2023 (Peterhead) and 33 in 2021 (Forfar). On the other hand in 2017 a team receiving a penalty would have needed 55 points to avoid bottom while it would have been 52 in 2019 and 50 in 2016. These higher targets correspond to needing to finish an unpenalised 3rd-5th, although there are a couple of 8ths and 9ths in there. ICT’s current 9 points from 9 games equate pro rata to 36 for the full season which, after the penalty, would have meant relegation in 6 of these 10 seasons 

So is there a lame duck among ICT’s rivals? Do Dumbarton fit that bill maybe? Or Annan? Or might ICT, after any player cull an administrator might make, become that lame duck anyway?

Edited October 11, 2024 by Charles Bannerman

[Scotty]

If we retain the services of the current manager, then we are the lame duck and will be relegated. He all but conceded that yesterday and over the last two seasons has shown nothing to indicate he can get the best out of any of our players be those veterans, loanees, or youngsters. When he comes out in the press to say that with a 15-point penalty, we will be relegated then that is not a rallying call, but the talk of someone who has given up. He might privately believe we will be relegated, and he may be right depending on how decimated our squad becomes under an administrator, and he might even publicly say it, but I would expect any manager to also say that while it may happen, we will fight tooth and nail to try and prevent it. His on-field reputation is as a hardman, battling with opponents and not giving up, but it has not translated to football management. 

For me, we need to replace him, but the question is with who. I said in another thread about one of our former players like Tokely, Esson, Warren etc. but as pointed out, perhaps an administrator would not allow this, given it might cost compensation to the club any of them are at currently. Looking inward, I would be happy with Charlie as a short-term measure (if he were up for it personally) or perhaps there is someone else locally who has the qualifications and is currently not in a position or is in one that would allow a 'mutual termination'. If they are willing to get the players battling on the field to save the season and potentially the club, then that's already better than what we have.

 

[big cherly]

I believe Big Dunc’s mind is already in the exit strategy mode, has been for some time since SG was shown the door. He played along with the A Savage review process up until last week when the Administration likely route flag was raised. 
Whilst still not a fan, to be fair to him, big Dunc has since handled his position with some discretion IMO, (step forward anyone who would like to be in such a position). 
When he does leave I hope we provide him with some of that community club spirit I hear so much about just now.
bc

Edited October 11, 2024 by big cherly

[+snorbens_caleyman]

2 hours ago, Charles Bannerman said:

ICT’s current 9 points from 9 games equate pro rata to 36 for the full season which, after the penalty, would have meant relegation in 6 of these 10 seasons

Interesting.  I have generally reckoned for years that if you average one point per game, then no matter what league you're in, then you are very probably safe from (automatic) relegation.  Of course, that didn't save us last season.

But  I haven't studied a number of old tables to confirm or refute this, like you have done - and it appears that 1 point per game is not enough in League One!

On the face of it, around 30 points from 27 games doesn't look like a big ask - but given our current form, it looks to be beyond our grasp.

Edited October 11, 2024 by snorbens_caleyman
corrected number of games to go

[Satan]

34 minutes ago, big cherly said:

I believe Big Dunc’s mind is already in the exit strategy mode, has been for some time since SG was shown the door. He played along with the A Savage review process up until last week when the Administration likely route flag was raised. 
Whilst still not a fan, to be fair to him, big Dunc has since handled his position with some discretion IMO, (step forward anyone who would like to be in such a position). 
When he does leave I hope we provide him with some of that community club spirit I hear so much about just now.
bc

Discretion?

When he disappeared over the summer, he should've stayed gone.

Discreetly.

 

[big cherly]

51 minutes ago, Satan said:

Discretion?

When he disappeared over the summer, he should've stayed gone.

Discreetly.

 

Ah yes, 
The road ahead is long!! 

[STFU]

Not a question that can be answered until we see the impact on the football personnel/players as a result of administration.

[+MrCaleyjag]

On 10/11/2024 at 5:23 PM, STFU said:

Not a question that can be answered until we see the impact on the football personnel/players as a result of administration.

Totally agree and whatever personnel/players we do retain or have at our disposal, must be fully committed to starting almost from scratch and looking forward.

On the pitch it starts with the manager and for me DF needs to go.

We need someone who is forward thinking, someone who'll set out with an attractive forward thinking style of play, be open to progressing both personally and progressing players with a 2 season minimum plan in place. Whether we can avoid relegation or not, we need someone who portrays a belief that we can, not someone who outwardly states we can't simply just to save his own skin by being able to say at the end of the season 'well I told you so meaning I haven't failed' - he's already trying to save his own credibility, whether he has any left or not.

If we survive administration in any form, it needs to be treated as a complete reset, a new starting point with measuring points 1, 2, 3, 5yrs down the line.

A playing team, coaching staff included, that has no negativity what so ever.

It should be about fighting for everything that's left this season and building foundations for being in League 1 with a League 2 budget. If we go down then so be it, we're already working to that budget. If we stay up, it's a bonus. 

Anything right now is a bonus but sadly DF is not.

[bishbashbosh]

7 hours ago, MrCaleyjag said:

Totally agree and whatever personnel/players we do retain or have at our disposal, must be fully committed to starting almost from scratch and looking forward.

On the pitch it starts with the manager and for me DF needs to go.

We need someone who is forward thinking, someone who'll set out with an attractive forward thinking style of play, be open to progressing both personally and progressing players with a 2 season minimum plan in place. Whether we can avoid relegation or not, we need someone who portrays a belief that we can, not someone who outwardly states we can't simply just to save his own skin by being able to say at the end of the season 'well I told you so meaning I haven't failed' - he's already trying to save his own credibility, whether he has any left or not.

If we survive administration in any form, it needs to be treated as a complete reset, a new starting point with measuring points 1, 2, 3, 5yrs down the line.

A playing team, coaching staff included, that has no negativity what so ever.

It should be about fighting for everything that's left this season and building foundations for being in League 1 with a League 2 budget. If we go down then so be it, we're already working to that budget. If we stay up, it's a bonus. 

Anything right now is a bonus but sadly DF is not.

Sounds great, do you have a manager in mind that is going to do the job for free.

[Starscape]

When do I start?