The Last Six Games!

[Eagle4Caley]

So with 6 games to go, automatic relegation off the agenda, an unlikely promotion play-off place almost certainly unlikely, but ideally a relegation play-off to be avoided…what are people’s predictions for the last six games against these teams [with our records against them this season]

Queen of the South [a]    WLW
Cove Rangers [a]              DLL
Kelty Hearts   [h]              DDW
Stenhousemuir [a]           DWW
Arbroath [h]                      LLL [also L in League Cup!]
Montrose [a]                    DWD

Tricky eh?

I’m going  LWDLWD …will that keep us safe?

Surprisingly I’m going for the win against a promoted [?] Arbroath almost entirely on the basis that I’ve booked my flights up to watch the last [scheduled] home match of the season having just arrived back from India [bringing luck and fab weather]

[big cherly]

2 hours ago, Eagle4Caley said:

So with 6 games to go, automatic relegation off the agenda, an unlikely promotion play-off place almost certainly unlikely, but ideally a relegation play-off to be avoided…what are people’s predictions for the last six games against these teams [with our records against them this season]

Queen of the South [a]    WLW
Cove Rangers [a]              DLL
Kelty Hearts   [h]              DDW
Stenhousemuir [a]           DWW
Arbroath [h]                      LLL [also L in League Cup!]
Montrose [a]                    DWD

Tricky eh?

I’m going  LWDLWD …will that keep us safe?

Surprisingly I’m going for the win against a promoted [?] Arbroath almost entirely on the basis that I’ve booked my flights up to watch the last [scheduled] home match of the season having just arrived back from India [bringing luck and fab weather]

Interesting E4C. Every game is meaningful. And whilst any Annan victory now brings those teams above us closer, for me we have to focus on staying above Annan. I don’t know when Musa is back but I feel we will need his presence to help get there. Nothing against Aiden in goals for us against Alloa, just he is ‘green’, smallish and slight of frame, and expect teams I fear would exploit these facts.
Remi Savage is out for at least one game, so that influences my prediction. Annan have an equally tough last six matches.
So for what is worth:  We stay up with a game to spare but it’s a fraught first four remaining matches.

LDDLWD

bc

Edited March 26 by big cherly

[Eagle4Caley]

53 minutes ago, big cherly said:

Interesting E4C. Every game is meaningful. And whilst any Annan victory now brings those teams above us closer, for me we have to focus on staying above Annan. I don’t know when Musa is back but I feel we will need his presence to help get it a there. Nothing against Aiden in goals for us against Alloa, just he is ‘green’, smallish and slight of frame, and expect teams I fear would exploit these facts.
Remi Savage is out for at least one game, so that influences my prediction. Annan have an equally tough last six matches.
So for what is worth:  We stay up with a game to spare but it’s a fraught first four remaining matches.

LDDLWD

bc

I wonder how much things rest in how soon Bavidge, Longstaff and MacLeod come back? Savage I think misses 1 game, so we are about to discover who decent Ewans is.  

[Ronaldo]

I'll settle for our goal difference to save us

[Charles Bannerman]

3 hours ago, Eagle4Caley said:

So with 6 games to go, automatic relegation off the agenda, an unlikely promotion play-off place almost certainly unlikely, but ideally a relegation play-off to be avoided…

I would suggest not “ideally” but CRUCIALLY a relegation playoff is to be avoided because there’s always an element of lottery there. My ideal final placing would be fifth, which itself is very probably beyond the club, with a promotion playoff place neither conceivable nor desirable.

On the other had I would be prepared to settle for goal difference above most probably Annan (although I really wouldn’t welcome the squeaky bum experience that would bring). With six games left, an advantage of just three points plus goal difference is still pretty thin, with the six pointer defeat by Annan the biggest single factor.

In theory, up to 16 points from these last six games could still be required but in practice it will be a lot less than that and since Scott Kellacher took over, Annan have been pulled in pretty consistently. In fact here are some statistics for that period since 26 October: ICT have pulled Annan in by 16 points across 20 games, converting a 13 point deficit into a 3 point advantage; there is no run of six games across which Annan have scored more points than ICT and (game to gsme rather than date to date) on only 3 of these 20 occasions have Annan scored more points than ICT. Now of course what is effectively a four point advantage can be fragile, but it also needs at least two occasions in the last six for Annan to do better than ICT for Annan to go eighth. This is of course possible but would require an unprecedented change in results trend over the last six games compared with the preceding 20.
 

[Scotty]

I'll settle for 8th, anything else is a bonus. 

[+Northern_jaggie]

Obviously finishing well clear of the relegation zone would be the preference, but a bit of extra revenue from the lower playoffs might help the coffers…not sure we operate at a profit though so that might not be true. 
 

The sadist in me wants to play Elgin in the playoff final, then beat them at home to stay up. Imagine the craic in that

[Charles Bannerman]

4 hours ago, Scotty said:

I'll settle for 8th, anything else is a bonus. 

Me too and al my sums have been based on that. The only advantage of 5th-7th is the tiny extra bit of cash. I would actively not want 4th.

Edited March 26 by Charles Bannerman

[+Gringo]

Considering how abysmal I've been a predicting results this season [as seen in the NAPS Competition on the Betting Forum] I'm not even going attempt this. Having said that, over the last six games our away form [W4 D0 L2 Pts12] had been slightly better than our home form [W3 D2 L1 Pts 11]. It'll be tough just now with injuries and suspension. Add to that the current difficulties of putting the ball in the net it's going to be a tough call. I'm with Scotty...I'll settle for 8th. Hoping to make the Montrose away game but depends on events this end.

[Eagle4Caley]

9 hours ago, Northern_jaggie said:

Obviously finishing well clear of the relegation zone would be the preference, but a bit of extra revenue from the lower playoffs might help the coffers…not sure we operate at a profit though so that might not be true. 
 

The sadist in me wants to play Elgin in the playoff final, then beat them at home to stay up. Imagine the craic in that

No No, Lets avoid the Play-off and have Elgin promoted...a great away day for me, and another ground ticked off [and we can beat them 4 times!...just checking do we 'hate' them as much as County?]

[big cherly]

Hi E4C,

I like the ribbing each fans give each other on forums and more so at matches. Elgin is up there in the list of teams and fans to get one over, however I don’t ‘hate’ Elgin, or come to that, any other team or their fans.

You don’t need to look too far under the mask of other Scottish club fan forums  (the premiership being a pit of some sad and bent minds), to see how or where this malignant path leads to. 
I’m sure we can rile Dingwall and Elgin fans without destroying any banter. 
bc

Edited March 27 by big cherly

[Scotty]

1 hour ago, big cherly said:

Hi E4C,

I like the ribbing each fans give each other on forums and more so at matches. Elgin is up there in the list of teams and fans to get one over, however I don’t ‘hate’ Elgin, or come to that, any other team or their fans.

Banter over bile any day of the week

 

[tm4tj]

Pos Team Pld W D L F A Pts It's a tough run-in given our plight 1. Arbroath 30 16 6 8 50 33 54 2. Cove Rangers 30 14 7 9 52 34 49 3. Stenhousemuir 30 14 7 9 42 30 49 4. Alloa Athletic 30 10 11 9 44 39 41 5. Q.O.S. 30 11 6 13 32 37 39 6. Kelty Hearts 30 9 10 11 32 32 37 7. Montrose 30 8 12 10 33 38 36 8. Inverness CT 30 13 9 8 35 31 33 9. Annan Athletic 30 8 6 16 31 56 30 10. Dumbarton 30 5 10 15 35 56 10

I'll settle for eighth right now but should we perform well we could get as high as fifth, as unlikely as it sounds. That will depend on others. It's in our own hands at the moment, but we might not see Longstaff or Bavidge again this season and that makes it more difficult.

29th

3:00:PM

Queen of the South (A)

League (League 1)

-

-

-

April 2025

5th	3:00:PM	Cove Rangers (A)	League (League 1)	-	-	-
12th	3:00:PM	Kelty Hearts (H)	League (League 1)	-	-	-
19th	3:00:PM	Stenhousemuir (A)	League (League 1)	-	-	-
26th	3:00:PM	Arbroath (H)	League (League 1)	-	-	-

May 2025

3rd

3:00:PM

Montrose (A)

League (League 1)

-

-

[Eagle4Caley]

1 hour ago, tm4tj said:

Pos Team Pld W D L F A Pts It's a tough run-in given our plight 1. Arbroath 30 16 6 8 50 33 54 2. Cove Rangers 30 14 7 9 52 34 49 3. Stenhousemuir 30 14 7 9 42 30 49 4. Alloa Athletic 30 10 11 9 44 39 41 5. Q.O.S. 30 11 6 13 32 37 39 6. Kelty Hearts 30 9 10 11 32 32 37 7. Montrose 30 8 12 10 33 38 36 8. Inverness CT 30 13 9 8 35 31 33 9. Annan Athletic 30 8 6 16 31 56 30 10. Dumbarton 30 5 10 15 35 56 10

I'll settle for eighth right now but should we perform well we could get as high as fifth, as unlikely as it sounds. That will depend on others. It's in our own hands at the moment, but we might not see Longstaff or Bavidge again this season and that makes it more difficult.

29th

3:00:PM

Queen of the South (A)

League (League 1)

-

-

-

April 2025

5th	3:00:PM	Cove Rangers (A)	League (League 1)	-	-	-
12th	3:00:PM	Kelty Hearts (H)	League (League 1)	-	-	-
19th	3:00:PM	Stenhousemuir (A)	League (League 1)	-	-	-
26th	3:00:PM	Arbroath (H)	League (League 1)	-	-	-

May 2025

3rd

3:00:PM

Montrose (A)

League (League 1)

-

-

No predictions?

Bavidge is a loss, and Billy really needs to come to the party ... as for Luis, who has been good this season, fortunately Bray, Stewart, Brannan, Mackinnon and in particularly Paul Allan, all seem to be able to make things happen. Gilmour being solid helps this

[tm4tj]

I predict a riot. 7th or 8th.

[Robert]

I’m just taking it one game at a time. As long as we avoid 9th it will be a case of “good job, well done” by the Manager and players.

[STFU]

I think the manager and team have done an incredible job in getting us into a position where we even have a fighting chance of avoiding relegation.

8th place felt like an impossibility after the points deduction and with Ferguson in charge.

It doesn't feel right lumping any further expectations on top of that achievement and we're at the point where injuries and suspensions make it tough to predict based on previous form for any team.

I'll predict 7th but will be delighted with 8th.

[Starscape]

17 minutes ago, STFU said:

I think the manager and team have done an incredible job in getting us into a position where we even have a fighting chance of avoiding relegation.

8th place felt like an impossibility after the points deduction and with Ferguson in charge.

Without the deduction, we'd be comfortably in the promotion playoffs. Amazing, given we had a better squad with Ferguson but we were still IIRC second bottom before administration. So, that's almost a deduction in itself.

All-in-all, an incredible piece of work by the management team. We easily had a playoff team and maybe automatic promotion when Ferguson was here but he was just such a poor manager.

[RiG]

With Bavidge now confirmed as being out for the rest of the season I am feeling very, very nervous about the final few games.

I don't expect anything from Cove or Arbroath. If we get a draw in either of those games it'll be a great result. Arbroath will probably have the cigars out when we play them so perhaps we grab something unexpected there? Kelty looks like our best chance of winning any of the remaining games but I thought they looked good in the recent fixture against them so I'm not taking that as a certainty. Montrose and Stenny away will hopefully yield something but I wouldn't also be surprised if we ended up with two losses given our goal scoring profligacy. So I think we take somewhere between 3 and 7 points from our last five games.

Anan also have Cove and Arbroath in their final fixtures but at home and could they each have the cigars out by then allowing them to sneak unexpected points? Hopefully not but the away fixture against our Administration Brothers Dumbarton looks pivotal. QotS are diabolical away from home so there's a good chance Annan get a win there but probably won't get much from Alloa. I think Annan will take at least 6 points from their remaining fixtures so I'm expecting a tumultuous final few weeks of the season.

[Yngwie]

With Bavidge: 2.2 points per game

Without Bavidge: 1.2 points per game, similar to Annan’s 1.1 season to date average.

[The Hammer]

For quite a while I predicted 6th. Right now I'd bite your hand off for 8th.

[Yngwie]

History tells us that every time we are in a relegation dogfight, we get relegated.

[LisleRightPeg]

34 minutes ago, Yngwie said:

History tells us that every time we are in a relegation dogfight, we get relegated.

Cmon let’s be positive. When we were deducted 15 points I bet most would have bitten your hand off to be in this position with 6 games remaining. Let’s not forget what’s been achieved 

[ictchris]

We need to beat Kelty and Montrose.

[Kind of Blue]

2 hours ago, Yngwie said:

History tells us that every time we are in a relegation dogfight, we get relegated.

Not quite true , in season 97/98 we were in the relegation zone and managed to stay up.