Are we under-achieving this season?

[PerfICT]

Given our league position comapred to our recent successes, there is a senses around the place that we are underachieving this season. However, ask any supporter at any club whether they think their team should do better and most would say that they should be doing better. This begs the question: on what do football supporters base their standards, given all the inequalities in the game?

One metric that we can measure success against is income, which is a function of crowd size. Just for kicks, I've therefore come up with the graph below which relates points per game to crowd size. In order to bring the outliers of Celtic and Rangers into the frame and to make the relationship linear, I have log transformed the crowd figures. The result is interesting and rings true to a large extent. The over-achievers compared to their crowd sizes (i.e. above the mean line) are St J, PT, Abdn and Celtic. Under-achievers are ourselves, Motherwell, Dundee and Hearts and Rangers. It is interesting to note that Hamilton are not under-achieving: I wonder how many Hamilton supporters would agree with that?

Our level of under-achievement is modest at this point in the season - we're about 5 points down on what this model might predict. It would be interesting to do the same for the last couple of seasons to see just how far above our weight we were punching. This can be updated on a weekly basis - just where will we sit at the end of the seaso? another way of looking at it is: if we got another 50 people through the gate every week, it should be worth an extra 0.1 points per game (~4 points for the season).

Like any model, this is riddled with holes, but given its simplicity, it is interesting to find such a clear assoication between crowd size and success. If nothing else, it helps to bring a reality check to our assessment of how well we're doing against what should be expected...

Thoughts?

[PerfICT]

 

Graph now included!

 

 

Edited March 31, 2017 by PerfICT

[12th Man]

Points based on our last batch of 11 games,

I haven't included the full league but here's a list of the teams around us.

Hearts 10, 

Killy 10,

Hamilton 10,

Rangers 9,

Dundee 8,

ICT 8,

Motherwell 7, 

County 5,

One more win would of put us to the top of that group and that Jammy Hamilton would have probably lost that game if it wasn't for the 13 players they had on their side.

[12th Man]

I will update after match 9.

We are behind Dundee on goals scored.

[Robert]

Realistically with our budget, we should be in a relegation battle most seasons (just hope we stay up!), and we have had several years of over achievement, which we savoured, culminating in May 2015. 

 

[forresjags]

Seriously we do not need a graph to tell us we are under achieving, 4 wins all season sez it all does it not.

As for your financial theory we will just ignore St Johnston who not only survive on worse gates than us but prosper every year 

 

 

[+DoofersDad]

Of course the graph does not show the teams in the division below us.  Realistically with our budget we should be a bog standard side in the Championship.  We are over-achieving by virtue of the fact that we still have a decent chance of staying in the top flight.

As for St Johnstone, they are really the miracle of Scottish Football.  They are a club from a small city with a population less than Inverness and with bigger city clubs not far away, and yet for a significant majority of the last 60 years they have had a team in the top league.  

[12th Man]

47 minutes ago, DoofersDad said:

Of course the graph does not show the teams in the division below us.  Realistically with our budget we should be a bog standard side in the Championship.  We are over-achieving by virtue of the fact that we still have a decent chance of staying in the top flight.

As for St Johnstone, they are really the miracle of Scottish Football.  They are a club from a small city with a population less than Inverness and with bigger city clubs not far away, and yet for a significant majority of the last 60 years they have had a team in the top league.  

Who would have believed it but for the majority of our clubs existence our home has been in the top league.

[IMMORTAL HOWDEN ENDER]

 Achievement to ICT is survival in the Top League. To stay there we will ALWAYS have to over achieve. That can only be demonstrated ON the feckin park - and tactically OFF the park - Feckin graph that !!

 

[dougal]

The ICT board are to blame for the predicament we find ourselves in, I know I've called for Foran to quit on the matchday thread but they are ultimately responsible for putting a man in a managerial position without managerial experience

An absolutely ludicrous decision and if Foran does go they should also stand down with immediate effect as they don't have the clubs best interests at heart

Dougal 

[+DoofersDad]

13 minutes ago, 12th Man said:

Who would have believed it but for the majority of our clubs existence our home has been in the top league.

Yes we know that, but what point are you trying to make?

[rocky1]

1 hour ago, dougal said:

The ICT board are to blame for the predicament we find ourselves in, I know I've called for Foran to quit on the matchday thread but they are ultimately responsible for putting a man in a managerial position without managerial experience

An absolutely ludicrous decision and if Foran does go they should also stand down with immediate effect as they don't have the clubs best interests at heart

Dougal 

Hopefully after that you will step in as the new Chairman and we will make the final stages of the champions league in 2 years looking forward to it

[Yngwie]

1 hour ago, dougal said:

they don't have the clubs best interests at heart

The appointment and subsequent loyalty to Foran are Board decisions that can rightly be questioned, but the statement I've quoted doesn't seem justified or fair to me.

[AlexJones]

If you compare our squad man for man with Saint Johnstone I'd say we have the better players and it's not even close. I'd also say our squad has considerably more strength and depth this season than last. So purely in terms of the players we have on our books we are woefully underachieving. 4 league victories after 30 games is an absolute disgrace. The problem isn't the players.  

[IMMORTAL HOWDEN ENDER]

[12th Man]

11 hours ago, DoofersDad said:

Yes we know that, but what point are you trying to make?

If you want to provide facts about St Johnstone then there's nothing wrong with me also providing info on ICT.

If people have decided that we shouldn't be in the top flight, then I have merely stated a fact that we have spent the majority of our existence here.

Fans of established clubs don't even have these justification views or opinions because they have always been part of a club that's been around since 19 oatcake.

They just get on with being a typical fan of a smaller club.

[+DoofersDad]

There are folk who point to St Johnstone and say that because there are similarities between Perth and Inverness that ICT should be doing at least as well as them year in year out.  I'm saying that such comparisons are unrealistic because St Johnstone have over-performed over a prolonged period.  You are quite right to point out that ICT have spent a small majority of their existence in the top flight, but that simply serves to demonstrate my point that ICT have also over-achieved.

At the moment we have St Mirren, Ayr, Raith and Dunfermline all scrapping it out at the bottom of the division below us and all from towns of broadly the same size as Inverness.  These are the sorts of teams we should be comparing ourselves with and therefore I think it is clear we have over-achieved over the years.  My concern is that our recent over-achievement should not lead people to have unrealistic expectations for the future.

[Sir C the 3rd]

considering where we were 2 years ago, what has happened here is pretty tragic. Since leaving Bucharest it feels like it's just a constant stream of negativity on and off the park. We absolutely deserve to be where we are now. 

If we want to talk about stats. We've had 4 wins in the league all season and we need at least that to stay up. It's really straw clutching time now. The league doesn't lie and up to this point we have been the worst team. No sign thats going to change.

Manager has his head buried deep in the sand, even last night going on about our winning run coming soon. The way we're going he'll still be going on about it in August. 

It feels to me that Something isn't right at the club just now and hasn't been for some time. Something needs to change for the positive soon.

Edited April 2, 2017 by Sir C the 3rd

[12th Man]

In that case we could say the same for Killy, County, Well, Hamilton, Partick etc

Not that any of it holds any relevance.

However I do understand where you are coming from.

[Charles Bannerman]

7 hours ago, DoofersDad said:

There are folk who point to St Johnstone and say that because there are similarities between Perth and Inverness that ICT should be doing at least as well as them year in year out.  I'm saying that such comparisons are unrealistic because St Johnstone have over-performed over a prolonged period.  You are quite right to point out that ICT have spent a small majority of their existence in the top flight, but that simply serves to demonstrate my point that ICT have also over-achieved.

At the moment we have St Mirren, Ayr, Raith and Dunfermline all scrapping it out at the bottom of the division below us and all from towns of broadly the same size as Inverness.  These are the sorts of teams we should be comparing ourselves with and therefore I think it is clear we have over-achieved over the years.  My concern is that our recent over-achievement should not lead people to have unrealistic expectations for the future.

DD I think you also have to take into account Inverness's location. A combination of being far out of the way and having very limited budgets has never made it easy to attract players. ICT has, of course, done it in the past but I think it's a pretty marginal business persuading players to come here so doesn't always work. When remoteness is combined with money - such as at Aberdeen and indeed many would say "boring"  Dingwall as well - the difficulty is alleviated. As for St Johnstone, Perth is just that 100 odd miles further down the road which I think alters the situation as well.

What I've said there is by no means the sole factor. Situations like this are more often than not in the "perfect storm" category and there will be other influences acting as well.

[Charles Bannerman]

On ‎4‎/‎1‎/‎2017 at 6:37 PM, 12th Man said:

 

One more win would of put us to the top of that group and that Jammy Hamilton would have probably lost that game if it wasn't for the 13 players they had on their side.

You seem to be assuming that the teams "above" ICT in that group will be getting few, or any points so they can be overtaken by one Inverness win.

[Kingsmills]

On ‎01‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 8:34 PM, DoofersDad said:

Of course the graph does not show the teams in the division below us.  Realistically with our budget we should be a bog standard side in the Championship.  We are over-achieving by virtue of the fact that we still have a decent chance of staying in the top flight.

As for St Johnstone, they are really the miracle of Scottish Football.  They are a club from a small city with a population less than Inverness and with bigger city clubs not far away, and yet for a significant majority of the last 60 years they have had a team in the top league.  

I agree that what the Perth Saints have achieved is remarkable but., as far as miraculous is concerned, Perth and Inverness are not dissimilar in size but St Johnstone have been members of the Scottish Football League for over a century and took over a century to win their first major national trophy. After a hundred years of exclusion on increasingly spurious geographical grounds, we have achieved our league standing from a standing start just over twenty years ago and secured our cup in less than a fifth of the time it took them.

If either team has created a footballing miracle it's us. I just hope this season isn't when that magic dust runs out.

[+old caley girl]

16 minutes ago, Kingsmills said:

I agree that what the Perth Saints have achieved is remarkable but., as far as miraculous is concerned, Perth and Inverness are not dissimilar in size but St Johnstone have been members of the Scottish Football League for over a century and took over a century to win their first major national trophy. After a hundred years of exclusion on increasingly spurious geographical grounds, we have achieved our league standing from a standing start just over twenty years ago and secured our cup in less than a fifth of the time it took them.

If either team has created a footballing miracle it's us. I just hope this season isn't when that magic dust runs out.

St J are geographically much better placed than us but unlike us they do not rely on crowds for their major income. They have great stadium facilities that are used every day of the week giving them a major advantage financially over the likes of ourselves. 

[Sir C the 3rd]

St Johnstone have some sort of deal with a crematorium that provides a very nice stream of income to the club I believe. I'm sure someone on here can find out exactly what it is. I have a feeling It was something to do with them moving to their new stadium in 1990. I dare say a never ending source of income. 

 

[12th Man]

Have you just thought up another use for our biomass boiler.