The Big Scottish Independence Debate

[Yngwie]

After 3 centuries of a ridiculous and outdated constitutional arrangement I hope and expect that today's historic vote will be a resounding Yes that ends inequality and shows us in a good light to the rest of the world.

 

I am of course talking about the Royal & Ancient's vote on allowing women members.

[Sneckboy]

Brilliant Yngwie! You had me going there!

Andy Murray has come off the fence, declaring his preference for an Independent Scotland - advantage yes perhaps?

That's he best I could serve up!

(edited to add the 'serve up' bit - pathetic, I know) 

Edited September 18, 2014 by Sneckboy

[Yngwie]

Anyone bold enough to predict not just the outcome but the % split? Prize for getting it right is a signed photo of Nick Robinson.

[Kingsmills]

Anyone bold enough to predict not just the outcome but the % split? Prize for getting it right is a signed photo of Nick Robinson.

Why not, I predict that the opinion polls are not far wrong and the the vote will be 47.5 % yes 52.5 % No

[+DoofersDad]

Anyone bold enough to predict not just the outcome but the % split? Prize for getting it right is a signed photo of Nick Robinson.

You've got a signed photo of Nick Robinson?  How sad is that!

 

Anyhow, I'll go for 48.3% yes and 51.7% no.

[Sneckboy]

About a month ago I stated 44% YES with all 32 Councils 'opting' for NO!

It was mainly to 'wind up' Ayeseetee, but he didn't bite! But, I'll stick with the above. It can't be any worse than my effort last Saturday when I thought Clach would win a game they lost 7-1!

Assuming an 80% turnout, each percentage point equates to approx. 34,000 votes. ie a win of 50.5% vs. 49.5% would be a margin of that magnitude. (34k)

Obviously, the outcome is of huge significance but also, politics has certainly been a winner in this referendum. I hope the estimated one-million folk who don't ordinarily bother with elections/voting remain engaged after this.

[Yngwie]

 

Anyone bold enough to predict not just the outcome but the % split? Prize for getting it right is a signed photo of Nick Robinson.

You've got a signed photo of Nick Robinson?  How sad is that!

 

Well I don't actually have one, but I can ask for one next time I'm writing his script for a news piece.

 

Although according to STV, he has defected. 

 

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/292504-indyref-daily-stephen-daisley-on-independence-referendum-campaign/

[starchief]

What two absolutely lousy campaigns.  Be glad to see the back of them.

 

For Yes, it's absolutely incredulous that there was no firm answer to 'what if a currency union is rejected?'.  It's no answer to say "there is no Plan B" or "there's multiple Plan Bs".  What are they?  What's favoured?  What are the risks?  What the cost?  Where's the benefit?  Same as with the EU.  What if we don't (as so many of the EU have said) automatically get accepted?  How does that change the future?  I had expected a lot better than that.  It's as if they had no idea anyone would ask a question.  It turned a previous 'don't know' like me away.

 

As for No, the main reason for supporting them is 'feelings about Britain'.  I can't remember a single member of the team saying how proud he was to be British, then listing the humaitarian aid, the World Wars, the democracy etc etc and all the things that might sway natural voters (Yeah, I know one side only sees the evil empire side of Britain but that's only them and they sure as hell spoke about it).  Instead, it was all 'independence will lose money'.  Yeah, very important but not, according to the polls, the most important issue.  And what was that symbol???  Yes has the St Andrews, surely it doesn't take a genius to prompt No to use the Lion Rampant??

 

Glad it's all over.  It's worth remembering, we're really on the same side - everyone wants Scotland to do well, it's just the management that's dividing us (remind me of ICT and Yogi).  I hope both sides accept the majority will (but I have a terrible feeling Yes won't if they lose).  Any Yes voters prepared to say they will accept the decision and move on with acceptance of the result no matter which side wins? 

 

Will they lose though?  My gut feeling says it will be Yes.  It will be no surprise as they will be the most enthusiastic.  But with all the polls, bar the odd fluke, showing No time and time again in the lead, with a high likelihood of 'shy No's', I'm going for Yes 46%, No 54%.

[Kingsmills]

What two absolutely lousy campaigns.  Be glad to see the back of them.

 

For Yes, it's absolutely incredulous that there was no firm answer to 'what if a currency union is rejected?'.  It's no answer to say "there is no Plan B" or "there's multiple Plan Bs".  What are they?  What's favoured?  What are the risks?  What the cost?  Where's the benefit?  Same as with the EU.  What if we don't (as so many of the EU have said) automatically get accepted?  How does that change the future?  I had expected a lot better than that.  It's as if they had no idea anyone would ask a question.  It turned a previous 'don't know' like me away.

 

As for No, the main reason for supporting them is 'feelings about Britain'.  I can't remember a single member of the team saying how proud he was to be British, then listing the humaitarian aid, the World Wars, the democracy etc etc and all the things that might sway natural voters (Yeah, I know one side only sees the evil empire side of Britain but that's only them and they sure as hell spoke about it).  Instead, it was all 'independence will lose money'.  Yeah, very important but not, according to the polls, the most important issue.  And what was that symbol???  Yes has the St Andrews, surely it doesn't take a genius to prompt No to use the Lion Rampant??

 

Glad it's all over.  It's worth remembering, we're really on the same side - everyone wants Scotland to do well, it's just the management that's dividing us (remind me of ICT and Yogi).  I hope both sides accept the majority will (but I have a terrible feeling Yes won't if they lose).  Any Yes voters prepared to say they will accept the decision and move on with acceptance of the result no matter which side wins? 

 

Will they lose though?  My gut feeling says it will be Yes.  It will be no surprise as they will be the most enthusiastic.  But with all the polls, bar the odd fluke, showing No time and time again in the lead, with a high likelihood of 'shy No's', I'm going for Yes 46%, No 54%.

 

I have voted Yes and of course I will accept the result if, as I anticipate, the No side win. I believe it's called democracy......How dare you suggest those of us desiring and campaigning for independence are undemocratic. If Scotland becomes independent it will have done so without a single drop of blood being shed and purely through the ballot box. No matter which side you are on we are all the richer already for that.

Edited September 18, 2014 by Kingsmills

[Ayeseetee]

About a month ago I stated 44% YES with all 32 Councils 'opting' for NO!

It was mainly to 'wind up' Ayeseetee, but he didn't bite! But, I'll stick with the above. It can't be any worse than my effort last Saturday when I thought Clach would win a game they lost 7-1!

 

I remember that   

 

 

Not sure how the overall vote will go but I think 12 regions will say yes with dundee being the highest for yes votes

[Ayeseetee]

If I was to make an overall prediction it would be

 

50 - 50  with salmond winning 2/3 games of rock paper scissors against alistair darling.

 

 

 

 

(Can't flip a coin or we would be there all night while no voters argue about what currency we should use.... )

Edited September 18, 2014 by Ayeseetee

[Kingsmills]

 

What two absolutely lousy campaigns.  Be glad to see the back of them.

 

For Yes, it's absolutely incredulous that there was no firm answer to 'what if a currency union is rejected?'.  It's no answer to say "there is no Plan B" or "there's multiple Plan Bs".  What are they?  What's favoured?  What are the risks?  What the cost?  Where's the benefit?  Same as with the EU.  What if we don't (as so many of the EU have said) automatically get accepted?  How does that change the future?  I had expected a lot better than that.  It's as if they had no idea anyone would ask a question.  It turned a previous 'don't know' like me away.

 

As for No, the main reason for supporting them is 'feelings about Britain'.  I can't remember a single member of the team saying how proud he was to be British, then listing the humaitarian aid, the World Wars, the democracy etc etc and all the things that might sway natural voters (Yeah, I know one side only sees the evil empire side of Britain but that's only them and they sure as hell spoke about it).  Instead, it was all 'independence will lose money'.  Yeah, very important but not, according to the polls, the most important issue.  And what was that symbol???  Yes has the St Andrews, surely it doesn't take a genius to prompt No to use the Lion Rampant??

 

Glad it's all over.  It's worth remembering, we're really on the same side - everyone wants Scotland to do well, it's just the management that's dividing us (remind me of ICT and Yogi).  I hope both sides accept the majority will (but I have a terrible feeling Yes won't if they lose).  Any Yes voters prepared to say they will accept the decision and move on with acceptance of the result no matter which side wins? 

 

Will they lose though?  My gut feeling says it will be Yes.  It will be no surprise as they will be the most enthusiastic.  But with all the polls, bar the odd fluke, showing No time and time again in the lead, with a high likelihood of 'shy No's', I'm going for Yes 46%, No 54%.

 

I have voted Yes and of course I will accept the result if, as I anticipate, the No side win. I believe it's called democracy......How dare you suggest those of us desiring and campaigning for independence are undemocratic. If Scotland becomes independent it will have done so without a single drop of blood being shed and purely through the ballot box. No matter which side you are on we are all the richer already for that.

 

 

To expand on my earlier post, this poll has been unique in that what we are voting either for or against was unilaterally and radically changed by one of the sides in the course of the campaign.

 

At the outset the Scottish Government wanted a three option referendum with Independence 'Devo Max and Status Quo  as the options. It was recognised by all sides that while there would be many in favour of Independence and a good number wanting the retain the Status Quo that the greatest number would probably choose the middle course. 

 

Nevertheless, the UK government who retain full control over constitutional matters as they do over most things of ultimate importance, vetoed that option leaving voters with two choices either outright Independence or the Status Quo. They did so because they had no wish or intention to devolve substantial and meaningful additional powers and because on the basis of the polls at the time they were confident that the Jocks would not vote for Independence.

 

It was only about a fortnight ago when it became clear that the Yes camp was gaining unstoppable momentum that the goalposts were changed and one side changed the rules to make it a contest between Independence and a very reluctantly conceded and nebulous 'Devo Max'. The Status Quo is now firmly off the table. For what it's worth, I think that is grossly unfair on those who would have wanted the opportunity to vote for it. It did, however, halt the bandwagon.

 

So, to be clear, if there is a Yes vote we will have Independence and that is democracy at work and if you voted No you will just have to accept it and work together for the good of the nation. If there is a No vote and we get substantial and meaningful powers 'Devo Max' devolved within a reasonable timescale then that too is democracy at work and I and my fellow supporters of outright Independence will just have to accept it and work together with our fellow countrymen for the good of the nation.

 

If, on the other hand, there is a No vote and Devo Max is not delivered for whatever reason that is not democracy, it is an affront to democracy all bets will be off and there will be all Hell to pay.

Edited September 18, 2014 by Kingsmills

[IBM]

You are right in your last sentence Kingsmills.  Yes 52%  No 48%

[Yngwie]

Just heard that a resounding 85% voted yes.

 

In the R&A women thing.

[+DoofersDad]

 

 

 

At the outset the Scottish Government wanted a three option referendum with Independence 'Devo Max and Status Quo  as the options.

 

 

Can you clarify how a three option referendum would have worked?  Would there have had to be 50% of the vote for Independence or would we have been seen to have voted for Independence if more voted for that option than for any other?  I don't think I was ever aware of that aspect ever being discussed. 

[caley100]

Just heard that a resounding 85% voted yes.

 

In the R&A women thing.

I think you are a serial lady golfer bum watcher..      get back to politics!  

[caley100]

 

 

 

 

At the outset the Scottish Government wanted a three option referendum with Independence 'Devo Max and Status Quo  as the options.

 

 

Can you clarify how a three option referendum would have worked?  Would there have had to be 50% of the vote for Independence or would we have been seen to have voted for Independence if more voted for that option than for any other?  I don't think I was ever aware of that aspect ever being discussed. 

 

I was,  and its fairly simple... most votes would win.

You obviously didn't give it much importance at the time-unlike the last few weeks..

[mainstander]

YouGov exit pole is predicting Yes 46% No 54% and there top man Peter ???? says that means a No vote is 99% likely when they count them.

[+DoofersDad]

 

 

What two absolutely lousy campaigns.  Be glad to see the back of them.

 

For Yes, it's absolutely incredulous that there was no firm answer to 'what if a currency union is rejected?'.  It's no answer to say "there is no Plan B" or "there's multiple Plan Bs".  What are they?  What's favoured?  What are the risks?  What the cost?  Where's the benefit?  Same as with the EU.  What if we don't (as so many of the EU have said) automatically get accepted?  How does that change the future?  I had expected a lot better than that.  It's as if they had no idea anyone would ask a question.  It turned a previous 'don't know' like me away.

 

As for No, the main reason for supporting them is 'feelings about Britain'.  I can't remember a single member of the team saying how proud he was to be British, then listing the humaitarian aid, the World Wars, the democracy etc etc and all the things that might sway natural voters (Yeah, I know one side only sees the evil empire side of Britain but that's only them and they sure as hell spoke about it).  Instead, it was all 'independence will lose money'.  Yeah, very important but not, according to the polls, the most important issue.  And what was that symbol???  Yes has the St Andrews, surely it doesn't take a genius to prompt No to use the Lion Rampant??

 

Glad it's all over.  It's worth remembering, we're really on the same side - everyone wants Scotland to do well, it's just the management that's dividing us (remind me of ICT and Yogi).  I hope both sides accept the majority will (but I have a terrible feeling Yes won't if they lose).  Any Yes voters prepared to say they will accept the decision and move on with acceptance of the result no matter which side wins? 

 

Will they lose though?  My gut feeling says it will be Yes.  It will be no surprise as they will be the most enthusiastic.  But with all the polls, bar the odd fluke, showing No time and time again in the lead, with a high likelihood of 'shy No's', I'm going for Yes 46%, No 54%.

 

I have voted Yes and of course I will accept the result if, as I anticipate, the No side win. I believe it's called democracy......How dare you suggest those of us desiring and campaigning for independence are undemocratic. If Scotland becomes independent it will have done so without a single drop of blood being shed and purely through the ballot box. No matter which side you are on we are all the richer already for that.

 

 

To expand on my earlier post, this poll has been unique in that what we are voting either for or against was unilaterally and radically changed by one of the sides in the course of the campaign.

 

At the outset the Scottish Government wanted a three option referendum with Independence 'Devo Max and Status Quo  as the options. It was recognised by all sides that while there would be many in favour of Independence and a good number wanting the retain the Status Quo that the greatest number would probably choose the middle course. 

 

Nevertheless, the UK government who retain full control over constitutional matters as they do over most things of ultimate importance, vetoed that option leaving voters with two choices either outright Independence or the Status Quo. They did so because they had no wish or intention to devolve substantial and meaningful additional powers and because on the basis of the polls at the time they were confident that the Jocks would not vote for Independence.

 

It was only about a fortnight ago when it became clear that the Yes camp was gaining unstoppable momentum that the goalposts were changed and one side changed the rules to make it a contest between Independence and a very reluctantly conceded and nebulous 'Devo Max'. The Status Quo is now firmly off the table. For what it's worth, I think that is grossly unfair on those who would have wanted the opportunity to vote for it. It did, however, halt the bandwagon.

 

So, to be clear, if there is a Yes vote we will have Independence and that is democracy at work and if you voted No you will just have to accept it and work together for the good of the nation. If there is a No vote and we get substantial and meaningful powers 'Devo Max' devolved within a reasonable timescale then that too is democracy at work and I and my fellow supporters of outright Independence will just have to accept it and work together with our fellow countrymen for the good of the nation.

 

If, on the other hand, there is a No vote and Devo Max is not delivered for whatever reason that is not democracy, it is an affront to democracy all bets will be off and there will be all Hell to pay.

 

I agree with much that you say but I think it is fair to say that if the union side has done any changing of the goal posts, this was in response to changing of goal posts by the other side first.  The SNP had a mandate for a referendum following their election victory in 2011.  However, their mandate was not for a three option referendum but a simple yes or no to independence.  This was made clear in their manifesto which stated "A yes vote will mean Scotland becomes an independent nation". 

 

Suggesting a third option was never going to be an option that could be seriously considered and it was mischievous to even suggest it.  If, as Caley100 helpfully confirms, most votes wins, we could have had independence despite a minority of those who voted voting for it.  Now that really would have been an affront to democracy. The UK Government were absolutely right to insist the referendum was consistent with what the SNP had a mandate for.

 

I must say that I am rather unhappy with this last minute vow nonsense.   But what was it that caused the momentum towards "YES" in the first place?  Was it the arguments for the long term case for independence?  No.  It was the shameless electioneering by the SNP who ran the campaign more like an election with promises of policies an SNP Government would put in place in an Independent Scotland.  No matter that what was being offered would require billions of borrowing and no matter that they may not even be in power in an independent Scotland, they bought votes with bribes while crucial questions about currency and our place in Europe etc went unanswered.

 

I agree they were two lousy campaigns.  The YES campaign was disreputable and the NO campaign was incompetent.  But at the end of the day, it is the voters who decide the outcome, and whilst we may not like what the politicians have said, we need to accept what the voters say, learn the lessons and move on. 

[Scarlet Pimple]

Even if the No voters win I would noit be  unhappy so long as the  thousand and thousands of people who are lic=ving below the poverty line were  hoisted up above it. 

 

All day today the news channels on Canadian T V have been red hot with  gen and predictions and  stats and......the coverage has been very good and what has been reported by quite a few people from Scotland (I mean Scots  residents) have  explained their reasons for voting yes and no and  were very articulate.  What a day, eh?

The yes side have been praised by the leader of the Parti Quebecois in Quebec who gave his views on what he had leraned in Scotland  and said he had leraneda lot about how  good their campaign was and how they did it.

 

Even Conrad Black, the newspaper Mogul who was in Jail last year in the USA, came on one of the segments for the CBC and expounded his views in a very informative and realistic way.  He said that this referendum has thrown the Westminster ruling cliques into panic and consternation and disarray. Remember Conrad the guy who gave up his Canadian Citizenship to accept his knighthood from the Queen. He is a smart cookie.

 

Well, its' now about 9 p.m. here in  Western Canada and in another couple of hours we will surely know the outcome  I might as well stay up late since I have been watching the TV all day! And the reporters and commentators have been very good indeed and obviously the news conglomerates have been doing their homework all right. It's been a completely fascinating and right, royal, riveting, rollicking ride.  

[culduthel]

Nice sunny afternoon in NZ.  Watching the results prog. live -  great result for Scotland and Britain.  Not even close  -  looking like a 400,000 majority for the No campaign. This in election terms is a landslide victory.

 

Well done to all the people in Scotland that voted NO!   Only the Highland vote to come in now.  Salmond needs to go.

[Charles Bannerman]

Thank God that's over! Relief at last from three years of unrelenting toothache! Freedom from the Chinese water torture of this tedious referendum, but I have slightly mixed feelings about the clear NO victory which has emerged.  

I said recently that I had come to see a strong case for a Yes vote. Let me explain.

I am British and have never bought into this "Scotland" stuff. To me, Scotland is simply a region of Great Britain, and Britain's interests are supreme.

The SNP-led Yes campaign has been so unpleasant and divisive that it has rendered Scotland toxic, divided and, in parts, anti-British and anti-English. Scotland in that respect has arguably become a liability to the rest of Britain - hence the case for leaving.

After all, for the loss of just 8% of the population (including a substantial Yes-cultivated awkward squad) and of a single, declining and overrated resource, Britain could have cut loose all this dissent, unpleasantness and division and along with it a disproportionate per-capita drain on the public purse.

Incidentally this would also have offloaded much of Britain's sectarianism (plus Rangers and Celtic) ..... and, come to think of it, the Krankies and the bloody Proclaimers as a bonus!!!  

It's a tempting scenario in which event, and unlike Salmond, I had a credible personal Plan B to remain here (due to family and other commitments) as a foreign national under my British passport whilst shifting my assets to the safety of elsewhere.

In the end it has gone NO, despite the SNP's desperate attempts to bribe the sometimes not very politically aware "have nots" with promises they couldn't possibly have kept. So rather than take certain benefits to Britain of a Yes vote, I will instead express my joy that the people who live here have performed an escape from a very unpleasant outcome.

When this referendum was first announced I decided, in the event of a NO, not to sink to the level of the SNP and indulge in any of the triumphalism and hubris which is their hallmark and which would undoubtedly have emerged in huge measure had it been Yes.

Since then we have had to endure repeated episodes of intimidation and mob rule by feral rabbles of Nationalist morons as well as the Nationalists' constant demonisation of not Jews and Communists, but English and Conservatives. That has seriously challenged my spirit of generosity in victory.

And of course if there is one sight which is more glorious than a bunch of Nationalists in defeat, it's a bunch of Nationalists in defeat after they thought they were going to win!  

So, in response to the manner in which the Yes campaign has gone about its business, I will crack open a token bottle of Schadenfreude 2014 which I will probably get dirt cheap from the Gelluns since they won't now be needing what they had on ice.

I will then imagine the scene at SNP HQ this morning with Salmond and That Ghastly Woman choking on their porridge, regurgitating their Irn Bru and spitting their single malts on to their tartan carpet whilst somehow crying "foul" and "fix" at the verdict of the Scottish people.  

A special word too for that 24 carat gold-plated roaster The Reverend Whinge Over Skintland who by now will surely be chewing lumps out of his tartan dog collar and spitting them out all over his refuge in England. I was interested that another contributor pointed out that people like him would have been immune from the risks which he was urging those who remain in Scotland to take by voting Yes. In that respect The Reverend Whinge rather reminds me of the First World War generals who, from the safety of their chateaux, thought nothing of ordering the poor bloody infantry over the top.

The performance and demeanour of some Yes supporters on here has been less than impressive, but I would go out of my way to congratulate Alex MacLeod and Kingsmills for their unfailingly courteous and reasonable contributions. It's also difficult to criticise the impenetrably longwinded and overtly Anglophobic Oddquine. Among the NOs, Yngwie and Doofers Dad have been outstanding.

So, as the dust settles on three years of going round and round in circles, we can at last get our lives back again and perhaps begin to concentrate once more on the things that really matter.

However I have a message for the Yes campaign, since you will probably be hoping to keep having referenda until you get the result you want, according to that old IRA dictum "We only have to be lucky once. You have to be lucky all the time."

 

You decided to have this referendum.

You decided the date.

You benefited from an optimum political climate.

You benefited from a poor NO campaign.

You set most of the rules.

You decided the question.

You intimidated and threatened your opponents.

 

YOU LOST.

 

So go away and stop bothering us.

[Ten4]

That's not really very nice . Scotland as a region of Britain ? Who ever says that?

[culduthel]

I think it worked Charles -  I think they have all gone away.

 

By the way did you really believe that Oddquine was a real person rather than just a SNP construct from central office -  no real individual could be that longwinded and boring and have that amount of time to devote to such a cause. i don't think we will hear from the construct again.

[Yngwie]

I've had a lively, fascinating and informative debate with the prominent Yessers on thes topic, who have given me plenty of food for thought and convinced me that independence wouldn't necessarily be too bad if all the major uncertainties and unanwered questions(eg currency union, oil price and quantities, EU membership) all went in Scotland's favour.

 

I'm not some Union Jack waving tw@t, I'm a Saltire waving tw@t and I honestly think that this outcome of increased powers for our parliament whilst retaining the benefits of the UK is the best thing for Scotland.