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Realistic expectations for this year??


Eagle4Caley

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After a brilliant season last year, how do people think we are going to do this year in the league?

I must say that I have some trepidation that our squad is even more threadbare than last year, where we started with one recognised striker in Mckay, sold him, soldiered on for most of the spring with Watkins chipping in with goals, and Ofere finally getting chances and despite being a lump, scoring a decent number of important goals. However both Watkins and Ofere have gone, replaced by what? Too soon to rate Lopez I guess, and Foran is back (sort of) and if he can get match fit over the season, might be a useful contributor still. I hear we may have Mutombo signed by the weekend, although I'm not clear if he is actually a striker. Somehow I feel much will depend on whether Doran kicks on, whether Christie can maintain and improve on his achievement last season, and if Williams steps up fully to replace the influence Watkins had on games.

Midfield is strong for us, as long as Tansey and Draper don't miss too many games through injury, Vincent is less injury-prone than previous seasons, and Williams/Christie/Doran regularly provide the creativity. I have no idea what Roberts is like

Defence will rely alot on Meekings, Warren and Devine staying fit...although it's frightening to think how exposed we would be if we lost two of those three for any length of time

I'm sure I sound a bit pessimistic which is unlike me, the upside is looking at what other teams have done in the transfer window, which is pretty uninspiring, but shows how little money is in the SPL.

So I think Yogi is going to really earn his money this year, and a 6 game August looks like a crucial period for us.....if Yogi feels we punched above our weight last season, which is probably true then this season we may be in for a hard slog..... I hope people realise that a repeat of last season's finish is unlikely and come the end of the season we might be 'celebrating' being top of the bottom half (oops I've said it now)

Given the awkward flight times Easyjet are offering, it looks like my trips up to see ICT will be away games.

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I do have a few concerns for this season. Having seen them against FC Astra at home and also the friendly at Nairn our lack of fire power is very concerning and clear to see. Not too sure Lopez will fit the bill but we've said that before with the likes of Paul Ritchie, Dennis Wyness and Billy McKay et al and they all came good once settled in. Our possession of the ball is good but we can't do anything with it. Our final third stats must be very poor I would think. So glad we managed to hold on the Ryan Christie as he seems to be the only one just now who has some creativity in his play. Fon Williams worries me too, he doesn't seem as commanding as Brill or Esson and a potential liability - I can only judge that on the two games I saw. He just didn't look comfortable or confident. Pre season hasn't been the best so I think we will struggle until we find our feet. Injuries are a worry just now but once they're all fit then maybe Yogi will find his A team. Good to have Foran back but he's getting on a bit so I can't see too many 90 min performances from him this season. I think we'll make the top six again and hopefully go some way to retaining the Cup.

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My main hope/expectation for us this season is to maintain our status as an established 'Top Six' side. Without a doubt the departure of Graeme Shinnie, Marley Watkins and Edward Ofere were always going to make it difficult for us to replace them very quickly given our resources but I feel the additions we have added so far will be of good quality once the season is well under way. The main thing to remember is that we still have a large number of players that won the Scottish cup last season, so in that respect we still have a good stable squad that can do the business on the pitch. We were defeated by 1 set piece against a European side who in previous knocked out Lyon in last year's europa league qualifiers.  

End of the day, I and many others will know that the players have what it takes to repeat another successful season and will give it 110% as per. 

 

 

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We have lost two very influential forward players in McKay and Watkins and the best attacking full back in the league in Graeme Shinnie. We are also without the coaching skills of Russell Latapy who, in my view, was an unsung hero of our success last season.

For those reasons, I think it unlikely that we will repeat last season's unprecedented success.

Personally, I would regard it as a successful season if we could achieve top six status again although a run to at least the semi finals of one of the cups would be a very welcome bonus.

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Here's my guess at the league table at the end of 2015/16:

 

Celtic

Aberdeen

Dundee

Hearts

St J

ICT

Dundee United

 

Kilmarnock

 

 

RC

Motherwell

PT

 

Hamilton

 

That said, I think that positions 3-12 are totally up for grabs and we could easily end up in a dogfight at the wrong end!

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I think we will be around the middle of the table. No real shame in that. I think it's a fair and achievable target for ICT. The top two will be Celtic then Aberdeen and I think that Hamilton and Partick will likely bring up the rear. Everything else in between is up for grabs and I don't see too much between a lot of the teams.

Will be interesting to see how County do this season. Instead of handing out 1 year contracts they are going for longer term deals so with a bit more stability in the side we might see a bit more competition from the other side of the bridge.

Edited by RiG
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After the euphoria of a top 3 finsh,  qualification for Europe and winning the cup, I'm glad to see some some sensible expectations here.  PerfICT and RiG sum things up pretty well but I think we are more likely to feature at the bottom end of the table than the top.

With the success last season many people confessed to eating humble pie regarding Yogi.  I have to confess that my humble pie is still firmly in place at the back of the freezer and I remain unconvinced.  Of course last year's success was brilliant but I think it is unfortunate that so much of the credit is directed at Hughes.  I think our success last year flattered us in relation the general level of performance but nevertheless was rich reward for the club as a whole - to the Board who have managed the finances of the club responsibly over the years and to the backroom staff and volunteers who have done so much to make the steady rise of the club possible.  Hughes just happened to be in the right place at the right time and was lucky.  He was lucky for a number of reasons.

  1. He inherited the best squad of players this club has ever had.  It is this squad he has used during his more than one and half seasons here and it afforded him huge stability for his first full season.
  2. We were remarkably injury free last season.  True Foran was absent throughout, but with the rest of the squad fit he would have been struggling to feature in the starting line up.
  3. The season saw the emergence of Ryan Christie from the youth ranks.  He became increasingly influential and his value to the team is reflected in the number of bigger clubs keeping tabs on him.
  4. The league was the weakest for years.  There was no Rangers, Hibs or Hearts.  Motherwell and Kilmarnock were significantly poorer than usual and Dundee Utd hit the self destruct button half way through the season.

And if truth be told, apart from the semifinal all our ties in the cup were against struggling clubs and we generally struggled to beat them. I'll come back to Celtic later.

The record books will show that Hughes has taken us to our highest ever league position and won the cup, but some of the stats behind that paint a bit of a different picture.  Looking back over the last 3 seasons and splitting them into the pre-Hughes era and the Hughes era the facts for the 3 league campaigns are these.

Points per game:  Pre-Hughes 1.61 : 1.49 Hughes

Goals scored per game  1.67 : 1.19

Goals conceded per game  1.39 : 1.19

Goal Difference  +14 : 0

Given all the positive factors going for us last season, I struggle to see how these figures demonstrate the significant progression of the team that some would have us believe.

What is particularly worrying for me is the dramatic drop in the number of goals scored per game (and that was when we actually had a decent striker!)  I know we were awful in the 2nd half of the 2013/14 season but last season we only managed 1.36 goals per game compared to 1.67 in the final year and a bit of the Butcher era..

Hughes has radically changed the style of play with an oft repeated emphasis on possession, but are we actually keeping possession?  The fact is, our record on that is no too good either.  Over the course of the league season last year we averaged only 52%.  Hardly the sort of figure you would expect of a team which focuses on possession football and which finishes 3rd in the league. 

This is why I worry about the coming season.  We are focusing on possession even though we are not actually that successful at it and as a result we create very little in the final third and score very few goals.  I worry even more following Latapy's departure because I do sense that he was trying to advocate a more positive approach.

It is worth saying a quick word about playing Celtic.  We do pretty well against them and I think the reason is that they expect to dominate teams and simply try to play through any team at Scottish level.  This leaves space behind them which suits a counter attacking style of play.  It probably particularly suited Shinnie, Watkins and Mckay who, alas are all gone.  We manage to do well against Celtic because when we win possession we are in a position to get behind them.  Other teams sit back against us and we try to patiently play a tight passing game through them.  Occasionally it works and it can be great to watch but for long periods we get tedious sparring in the middle of the park interspersed by a panicky back pass or two.

What I'm saying is that we are at risk of being found out this season.  We have lost some key players, the league will be stronger and we may not have the same luck with avoiding injuries this season.  This season we will really see what Yogi is made of.  Does he have the ability in the transfer market to adequately replace those who have left?  Signings made to date look a bit of a mixed bag on first impressions, but time will tell.  Will he be able to persuade those he wants to stay to extend their contracts beyond the end of the season? Will he find a way of introducing a bit more creativity into his style of play both to create both more chances and better entertainment value?  Unless the answers to those questions are "Yes", then we will struggle this season and gates will fall.

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While i do see where you are coming from in a lot of that post I think calling Yogi "lucky" is a bit harsh. At the end of the day whatever team you inherit you need to get the best out of them, keep team spirits up and get them winning games. Our best season to date proved he did that.

I also have concerns for this season but I also had them for last season, lets hope we are pleasantly surprised once again. 

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I don't think (m)any of us expect to repeat the dizzy heights of 14/15, for the reasons you outline. 

However, I think you are very unfair on Hughes to attribute that success to him being "lucky" and "in the right place at the right time". 

 

Edited by Yngwie
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DD is spot-on for me. Goals win games and entertain crowds and we were not prolific last season (if highly successful). We have a squad packed with midfielders and light on attackers, with few options at left back in particular. Spare a thought for Vincent and Polworth who will barely get a sniff this season and will follow Ross out the door, together with Draper. I think this might be tough.

 

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I find the above by DD quite puzzling. If there was ever a beautiful illustration of taking a collection of unattributed and, in some cases only half utilised, stats to illustrate what amounts to a delusion (a preconcieved idea, fixed and not amenable to rational examination or alteration) regarding Hughes, that's it. Please, please abandon the anti-Hughes agenda DD, almost everyone else has. Or give me a rational basis to agree on. Let's look at this; our success flattered us. Over the course of a season, you get the success you deserve - luck eventually runs out. That's what makes a league competition so difficult, and success in one prized. You don't get lucky. Hughes happened to be "in the right place at the right time" Has he done nothing to influence matters? Actually, he completely altered the style of play from the Butcher era and initially the team suffered. He brought in people who could play that style and is building on that - managing. It's his side, not Latapy's.  His signings are no more or less successful than his predecessors. I could dig out the excoriating criticism levelled at Billy Mckay on this forum as an example of this. However, on the basis of a couple of pre-season games you are willing to categorise recent signings as a "mixed bag".  I'll wait. There are genuine questions as to us requiring an out and out striker (on the grounds that one might have capitalised on the many chances we created against Astra) but one of sufficient quality to gel quickly, be fully match fit and be guaranteed to hit the ground scoring would be beyond our means. They generally cost in excess of £250K minimum.   You quote 52% possession averages as being "hardly what you would expect" Can you tell me where that figure lies in relation to all other clubs in the league? In isolation, it means nothing. I know that you are worried by the dearth of goals that we score, but I'm sure that you will agree that the difference that you identify between 1.36 and 1.67 goals per game, averaged over a season, is statistically insignificant. You also can't compare a "year and a bit" against a season. It has to be like for like. As for this year's league, it may or may not be stronger and we may or may not suffer injuries. Neither you nor I know.  Hughes has added to the squad - Wedderburn, for instance looks like adequate cover for Draper, a player previously seen as indispensable and that will help when injuries intervene. By the way, you omitted to mention injuries to Brill, Vincent and Raven that impacted upon their seasons and ours. Overall, we were lucky, but not that lucky. I agree that Ryan Christie is a marvellous talent, to be nurtured and progressed. He is not, however, a one man band - if you recall there were games that he struggled to impact upon and that was to be expected. Finally, the league was what it was. You can only play the teams that are there and I'm sure that supporters of Aberdeen, Hamilton, Dundee and Celtic would disagree that any of the teams that you mention would have offered more than them. Hamilton, for instance,were in the league because they beat Hibs fair and square for the privilege. And please, Rangers making the league stronger? Did you see them last year? They were nothing more than a tired old orthodoxy struggling vainly for any kind of relevance in a game that has passed them by. They would bring nothing to the premiership. There you are DD - they are my thoughts, nothing more. I'll await this season in expectation, hope and a genuine belief that we can replicate the league achievements of last year. And I'll give Hughes the credit he deserves if it happens.

 

 

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Grim reading in here. Hughes exceeded expectations last season, and that is the bottom line. Exceeding those expectations made people, including myself, eat humble pie. If you're never sold on a manager until they perform to the extent Hughes did last season with a squad which is entirely their own, then you will be waiting a very, very long time for that manager to come along. 

I happen to find Hughes' style more entertaining than Butcher's because we dominate teams by playing the ball on the deck and have an excellent home record. The progression in the team maybe doesn't show up through stats, but it shows in our ability to close out difficult games that we couldn't manage in the past. Could this be ascribed to Hughes having superior motivation and man-management skills to Butcher? Possibly. But this is an aspect of management that isn't reflected in stats, so we'll never know for sure.

Doofersdad's stats also show that we are conceding less goals than we did during the Butcher era, could this be a positive product of our possession football? It maybe doesn't get the juices flowing as much as scoring goals does, but it was a key reason why we finished with a record points total last season.

We should be aiming for the top six this season, anything less than that will be slightly underwhelming. I believe we will get into the top six and will be challenging for Europe at least around the point when the last round of fixtures begins.

 

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I find the above by DD quite puzzling. If there was ever a beautiful illustration of taking a collection of unattributed and, in some cases only half utilised, stats to illustrate what amounts to a delusion (a preconcieved idea, fixed and not amenable to rational examination or alteration) regarding Hughes, that's it. Please, please abandon the anti-Hughes agenda DD, almost everyone else has. Or give me a rational basis to agree on. Let's look at this; our success flattered us. Over the course of a season, you get the success you deserve - luck eventually runs out. That's what makes a league competition so difficult, and success in one prized. You don't get lucky. Hughes happened to be "in the right place at the right time" Has he done nothing to influence matters? Actually, he completely altered the style of play from the Butcher era and initially the team suffered. He brought in people who could play that style and is building on that - managing. It's his side, not Latapy's.  His signings are no more or less successful than his predecessors. I could dig out the excoriating criticism levelled at Billy Mckay on this forum as an example of this. However, on the basis of a couple of pre-season games you are willing to categorise recent signings as a "mixed bag".  I'll wait. There are genuine questions as to us requiring an out and out striker (on the grounds that one might have capitalised on the many chances we created against Astra) but one of sufficient quality to gel quickly, be fully match fit and be guaranteed to hit the ground scoring would be beyond our means. They generally cost in excess of £250K minimum.   You quote 52% possession averages as being "hardly what you would expect" Can you tell me where that figure lies in relation to all other clubs in the league? In isolation, it means nothing. I know that you are worried by the dearth of goals that we score, but I'm sure that you will agree that the difference that you identify between 1.36 and 1.67 goals per game, averaged over a season, is statistically insignificant. You also can't compare a "year and a bit" against a season. It has to be like for like. As for this year's league, it may or may not be stronger and we may or may not suffer injuries. Neither you nor I know.  Hughes has added to the squad - Wedderburn, for instance looks like adequate cover for Draper, a player previously seen as indispensable and that will help when injuries intervene. By the way, you omitted to mention injuries to Brill, Vincent and Raven that impacted upon their seasons and ours. Overall, we were lucky, but not that lucky. I agree that Ryan Christie is a marvellous talent, to be nurtured and progressed. He is not, however, a one man band - if you recall there were games that he struggled to impact upon and that was to be expected. Finally, the league was what it was. You can only play the teams that are there and I'm sure that supporters of Aberdeen, Hamilton, Dundee and Celtic would disagree that any of the teams that you mention would have offered more than them. Hamilton, for instance,were in the league because they beat Hibs fair and square for the privilege. And please, Rangers making the league stronger? Did you see them last year? They were nothing more than a tired old orthodoxy struggling vainly for any kind of relevance in a game that has passed them by. They would bring nothing to the premiership. There you are DD - they are my thoughts, nothing more. I'll await this season in expectation, hope and a genuine belief that we can replicate the league achievements of last year. And I'll give Hughes the credit he deserves if it happens.

 

 

I see no anti Hughes agenda whatsoever in DD's post just pragmatic realism.

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if there was ever a season where we lived up to the cliche that plenty of folk around our club like to use about "punching above our weight" then last season was it. A combination of factors saw us have our most successful season ever. Was it Hughes? Was it the remnants of Butcher's team? Was it the players? Was it Latapy? Who knows ... Yogi can only work with whats in front of him and the records will show he was in charge for this magnificent run.

The same is going to apply to this season ... we have lost 2 key pieces of the team in terms of Watkins and Shinnie, which Yogi could do nothing about, and a couple of players who would have likely made the starting 11 most weeks in Ross and Ofere although lets be honest, Ofere was never going to be a long term signing ... it does not seem to be in his nature. I dont think Yogi could have done anything to keep those 4 (or indeed Mackay) so he can only work with what he has got. We definitely need a goalscorer and some competition at the back. If we get this then I would hope we could comfortably finish top six. Anything else will be a bonus. 

 

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I find the above by DD quite puzzling. If there was ever a beautiful illustration of taking a collection of unattributed and, in some cases only half utilised, stats to illustrate what amounts to a delusion (a preconcieved idea, fixed and not amenable to rational examination or alteration) regarding Hughes, that's it. Please, please abandon the anti-Hughes agenda DD, almost everyone else has. Or give me a rational basis to agree on. Let's look at this; our success flattered us. Over the course of a season, you get the success you deserve - luck eventually runs out. That's what makes a league competition so difficult, and success in one prized. You don't get lucky. Hughes happened to be "in the right place at the right time" Has he done nothing to influence matters? Actually, he completely altered the style of play from the Butcher era and initially the team suffered. He brought in people who could play that style and is building on that - managing. It's his side, not Latapy's.  His signings are no more or less successful than his predecessors. I could dig out the excoriating criticism levelled at Billy Mckay on this forum as an example of this. However, on the basis of a couple of pre-season games you are willing to categorise recent signings as a "mixed bag".  I'll wait. There are genuine questions as to us requiring an out and out striker (on the grounds that one might have capitalised on the many chances we created against Astra) but one of sufficient quality to gel quickly, be fully match fit and be guaranteed to hit the ground scoring would be beyond our means. They generally cost in excess of £250K minimum.   You quote 52% possession averages as being "hardly what you would expect" Can you tell me where that figure lies in relation to all other clubs in the league? In isolation, it means nothing. I know that you are worried by the dearth of goals that we score, but I'm sure that you will agree that the difference that you identify between 1.36 and 1.67 goals per game, averaged over a season, is statistically insignificant. You also can't compare a "year and a bit" against a season. It has to be like for like. As for this year's league, it may or may not be stronger and we may or may not suffer injuries. Neither you nor I know.  Hughes has added to the squad - Wedderburn, for instance looks like adequate cover for Draper, a player previously seen as indispensable and that will help when injuries intervene. By the way, you omitted to mention injuries to Brill, Vincent and Raven that impacted upon their seasons and ours. Overall, we were lucky, but not that lucky. I agree that Ryan Christie is a marvellous talent, to be nurtured and progressed. He is not, however, a one man band - if you recall there were games that he struggled to impact upon and that was to be expected. Finally, the league was what it was. You can only play the teams that are there and I'm sure that supporters of Aberdeen, Hamilton, Dundee and Celtic would disagree that any of the teams that you mention would have offered more than them. Hamilton, for instance,were in the league because they beat Hibs fair and square for the privilege. And please, Rangers making the league stronger? Did you see them last year? They were nothing more than a tired old orthodoxy struggling vainly for any kind of relevance in a game that has passed them by. They would bring nothing to the premiership. There you are DD - they are my thoughts, nothing more. I'll await this season in expectation, hope and a genuine belief that we can replicate the league achievements of last year. And I'll give Hughes the credit he deserves if it happens.

 

 

I have no anti-Hughes agenda.  Of course he had a significant contribution to the success of last season, but what I am saying is that there were a range of factors in his favour which should be taken account of in forming expectations for this year.  We all have our opinions but in debating points can we please base our arguments on what others actually said and not on what you may have liked them to said.  I'll just respond to a few points.

I say he inherited a great squad of players and you say "His signings are no more or less successful than his predecessors".  Could you please tell me who all these players are that he signed and who were such an integral part of our success last year?

You state "you are willing to categorise recent signings as a "mixed bag".  I'll wait."  What I said was "Signings made to date look a bit of a mixed bag on first impressions, but time will tell."  So I'm doing what you are doing - and waiting. "Time will tell".

Then you ask "You quote 52% possession averages as being "hardly what you would expect" Can you tell me where that figure lies in relation to all other clubs in the league?"  Well the average for the league is obviously 50%!  A meager 2% above that does not really sound like a top 3 team basing its game on possession of the football does it?

You continue with "but I'm sure that you will agree that the difference that you identify between 1.36 and 1.67 goals per game, averaged over a season, is statistically insignificant." Well, no! I won't agree.  That's nearly 20% fewer goals!  Fans come to see goals so I hope it is not 20% fewer fans also.  That would be very significant indeed.

You then say "And please, Rangers making the league stronger? Did you see them last year? They were nothing more than a tired old orthodoxy struggling vainly for any kind of relevance in a game that has passed them by." But The Rangers are not going to be in the top flight this season!  What I am saying is that the league last year was weaker than previously when Rangers, Hibs and Hearts were all there.  I am also saying that I believe the league will be a little stronger this season than last.  But yes, Rangers were rubbish last year although you will recall they still managed to knock us out of the League cup because of our negative approach to the game.

Finally you say "I'll await this season in expectation, hope and a genuine belief that we can replicate the league achievements of last year. And I'll give Hughes the credit he deserves if it happens."  Whilst I don't share your belief that we can replicate last season's top 3 finish, I agree with the rest.  If we do have a top 3 finish the humble pie will be taken out of the freezer.  I trust that if we don't make top six you will be humble enough to revise your opinion of just how far forward Hughes has taken the club.

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As always, i will be happy avoiding relegation. if we can achieve that, then that, in my eyes, is a decent season. I will probably take pelters for this, but i believe last season was a one off, facilitated by a much weakened "Top League" AND i dont think we will see another season like that for manys a year. With Hearts being back in the league, it makes it that bit tougher this season. So, with that all said, i think if the lads can make the top 6, that will be a big achievment. I reckon Celtic, Aberdeen, Hearts and Dundee Utd will all finish above us this season, So 5th spot would be a target.

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I can't understand this attitude of "We need a goalscorer but they cost £X thousand and we don't have that so nevermind".  We paid £30,000 for Rooney and a similar amount for Iain Stewart.  Hardly megabucks.  Mckay was free, so was Wyness, so was Ofere, so was Paul Ritchie and so was Craig Dargo.  

This is the season we need to show if we're willing to make the step up and top six should be the aim.....no, the expectation.  There's nothing worse than this whole "shiny happy people holding hands, we're just happy to be here and hope we stay up" mentality and we should be beyond that now.  There's nothing more negative than just being happy with just staying up.  

On the whole though, I'm quite optimistic about this season.  As we saw in the Astra games, we've still got a strong base of the squad but we desperately need a goalscorer.  If we find one, we could surprise a few people again this season.  If we don't, it could be a frustrating season, but we should still be able to make the top six.

Edited by Renegade
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Too early to tell without knowing what other players will come into the squad but at the moment from what I saw in Romania I'd say top 6 is realistic. 

If we can get a goalscorer there is no reason we can't get into Europe.  If we don't, I predict a lot of draws

 

 

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When we have lost two inspirational players and a coach of similar ilk. Getting a striker is a "must do". I feel that Yogi has been too rigid trying to find a more skilful centre forward to fit in to the system. I feel that this may be asking for too much and it may have to be the system that is tinkered with. It must be the same objectives as ever - avoid relegation, seek Top Six and another cup run. Anything else would be a bonus. But defence and midfield wise we have the experience and strength to win more than we lose. My only fear is that a lack of goals and more defensive performances may drive away any extras that we have probably recruited.

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I think it will be a transitional year having lost key players in Shinnie, Mckay (who was temporarily replaced by Ofere) and Watkins. In saying that we've kept most of the rest of the squad together which is very good considering our success. Holding onto Meekings etc.

I think aside from left back our squad is near complete. I wouldn't be opposed to a loan striker near deadline day (often when a lot of loans are arranged) but if we've got Andy and Lopez we might just have to see how they fit in. Any loan player would likely be an unproven kid.

I think we have cover enough at centre back, i saw Eagle4Caley mention it but Draper and Tremarco can fit in there too. We only have space for 2 centre halves. We dont have the resources to have players idling as a 4th choice centre half. We just need to be flexible. Wedderburn could probably operate there too in a fix.

Personally I cant see us replicating last term. Top 6 would be good I think. This in not fault of the manager or his new signings. I just think last season, finishing 3rd and winning the cup was near top end for us in my opinion. Aberdeen should finish 2nd again. It would be surprising if they don't. Dundee United and Hearts I think will challenge for the top 6 too. Many teams with be trying to fit in that 3-6 place group. I don't see it as a huge failing if we miss that one year. It'll be a fight.
 

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