ICT + 48

[Caley Stan]

Edinburgh bars are starting to open late and strange characters lurk in the wee small hours. I met one from Skye around closing time in the Oak. Socially awkward and with the appearance of an unkempt version Statto from Fantasy Football League, the guy said he was a professional gambler who had just put a substantial amount of money on an SPL handicap bet at Totesport - ICT + 48. He kept saying it again and again - ICT + 48 9-1 at Totes, ICT + 48 9-1 at Totes, ICT + 48 9-1 at Totes. Like that.

The bet seems to be based on two assumptions - both of them a little shaky.

1. The Old Firm are getting weaker in comparison with the rest of league and the Champions will therefore have fewer points than usual. There is a trend in this direction over the past few seasons but it's not reliable. There was a period in the late 90's / early 00's where the OF were regularly winning the league with well over 90 points. This has calmed down a bit over the last few years - Celtic were the last team to hit 90 points in 2006.

2.ICT will benefit from the kind of early season promotion bounce that Hamilton and St. Johnstone have enjoyed over the past two seasons - St. Johnstone finished 40 points from top last season, Hamilton were 45 away the season before.

If we assume that the champions finish on 90 points then ICT would need 42 points to make the bookies pay. In 4 of our 5 previous SPL seaons we finished on more that 42 points, in 3 out 5 with less than a 48 point gap between us and the champions.

2004/05: 44 points - 49 behind champions

2005/06: 58 points - 33 behind champions

2006/07: 46 points - 38 behind champions

2007/08: 43 points - 46 behind champions

2008/09: 37 points - 49 behind champions

As i say, i find the 2 assumptions a bit shaky.

1. The Old Firm may be relatively weak but they are still considerably better than everyone else and capable of going on runs that leave them with a very high points total.

2. The "promotion bounce" is based on only 2 seasons - Falkirk, St.Mirren and Gretna came up in the 3 seasons prior to that and struggled, finishing 58, 48, 76 points behind the champions respectively. Also, our defence looks rotten.

The reason that i've worked through the stats is that my initial reaction was that the bet was too easy. My gut tells me there's no way we'll finish more than 48 points behind the OF, and 9-1 is very tempting.

This is a bet that should be made in advance of the opening day pumping of Celtic - that will wake the bookies up.

Scots Prem Handicap bets at the Tote

Edited August 4, 2010 by Caley Stan

[Yngwie]

Interesting. I think there's a very good chance that ICT + 48 would pip the OF.

The concern I have with this bet would be that some other team would finish ahead of both ICT and the OF.

[TopSix]

6/1 to finish in the top six seems like a better punt to me. in the short term, some bookies are offering 7/1 for us to win the first game of the season.

[Caley Stan]

6/1 to finish in the top six seems like a better punt to me.

In no way is 6/1 to finish in the top 6 a better punt. We could end up finishing bottom and still collect from Totes at 9-1.

If we do finish in the top 6 (highly unlikely IMO) then you definitely collect at 9-1 as no top 6 team will finish 48 points behind the champions.

Edited August 4, 2010 by Caley Stan

[Joe DiMaggio]

What does (scr) mean for Celtic, scratch? Does this mean that you are also competing against the other teams handicaps? Like we can't finish more than 9 points behind killie, 20 behind hearts, and 27 behind Dundee Utd. This makes the makes the bet not as appealing as purely ICT + 48 on the final SPL table becasue if a team outside the OF has a really good season you are screwed.

It must be that way as both the OF are 9/1 with their handicaps.

[Caley Stan]

What does (scr) mean for Celtic, scratch? Does this mean that you are also competing against the other teams handicaps? Like we can't finish more than 9 points behind killie, 20 behind hearts, and 27 behind Dundee Utd. This makes the makes the bet not as appealing as purely ICT + 48 on the final SPL table becasue if a team outside the OF has a really good season you are screwed.

It must be that way as both the OF are 9/1 with their handicaps.

Feck. Think i should just stick to the odd weekend accumulator.

[PullMyFinger]

What does (scr) mean for Celtic, scratch? Does this mean that you are also competing against the other teams handicaps? Like we can't finish more than 9 points behind killie, 20 behind hearts, and 27 behind Dundee Utd. This makes the makes the bet not as appealing as purely ICT + 48 on the final SPL table becasue if a team outside the OF has a really good season you are screwed.

It must be that way as both the OF are 9/1 with their handicaps.

I think you're right, looking at it DUFC are +21 which is I think the best punt. I can't see anyone else coming close.