Practice the Theory?

[Joonya]

Some may remember my post about starting the season with just ?5 and watching it accumilate over the course and see how much you can win.

I decided to test the theory through pre-season using the left over funds (?20) in my william hill account...

So far, I'm not doing too well...

I lost my first bet at 2/1, whilst at the same time winning 13.78 on the dogs that same evening.

I decided to not dive into the ?10 left originally, and placed the full 13.78 onto a 5/6 shot. It won. ?25.26 return.

That therefore went onto another match at 10/11. My bet looked dead at 85 minutes with the score 0-0, but my outfit went 1-0 up on 86. Come the 87th minute, it was 1-1 and thats how it stayed :D

Starting again, I place ?5 of the 10 remaining on an odds on 7/10 which came up, putting me on ?8.50. It came to pass that this was not to be either and thus I have just put my last ?5 on a 8/13 shot - you may remember I said you could win ?97m in a 36 game season by using this odds throughout - it also lost. 1-1 draw :)

So, after ?20 played, I could have walked with nearly ?50. Not much I know, but I will continue to test the theory throughout pre-season. It'll keep me occupied through pre-season and interested in other matches during world cup etc.

[Joonya]

Since my last post I have only placed ?10 and have been taking a little longer to get rid of it :P

?5 was wasted on the dogs as I was bored one evening. A good couple of hours of wins and losses over a few races was a different than usual night for me.

Anyway, the other ?5 has been doing not too bad for me thus far...

Stake Win Odds at time of bet

?5.00 ?7.86 4/7

?7.86 ?15.33 19/20

?15.33 ?25.55 4/6

?25.55 ??????? 10/11

With the above rounds of betting, I have looked at form guides as well as the odds to pick my bets more carefully, whereas before I was basing bets purely on odds. If i liked the odds, I placed the bet. Not a good way to gamble really.

If the latest bet comes up, it will be the first time i have won 4 consecutive bets when testing this theory. It's keeping it going that is harder than the initial win

[Tichy_Blacks_Back]

Good luck GJnr hope it goes well :)

I put 20 squids on every ICT game last season ....I know - no real strategy just blind faith.... - I wasn't doing so well pre-Xmas but more than made up for it following that - in fact my account is the most healthiest it has been since the 2007 Grand National.

Biggest issue I found last season was self control - set out your plan early - stick to it - and don't deviate.... it took a few set backs to realise that.... :021:

[BA]

I think on behalf of Rob I shall give you an update.

His ?25.55 bet came in, paying out at ?48.78. He then backed a Brazilian side at 6/10. If it came in it would have paid out roughly ?80. After 50 minutes they went 1-0 up then after 85 minutes the opposition scored and then got a winner with 3 minutes remaining. Unfortunately for Rob it took him about 40 minutes into the game for him to realise he put almost ?50 on a game of football. I hope you have learned your lesson Mr Wilson.

[Joonya]

The whole point at the moment is to practice the theroy.

It took 5 games to get to the ?50, which so far is my best streek.

It's looking likely that the best way to make money off this particular strategy is to limit yourself to 3 matches, bank the dosh, then start again.

Think of it as the 'weakest link'... in fact, I'm going to call it 'Weakest Link Betting'.

[SanMiguel]

I was planning this a couple of weeks back. 20 starter on shamrock rovers vs fc fingel (ire) @ 10/11 Then if I won was gonna put it on Inter in the champ final the next night. 91st min 1-0 rovers 94th min f*ckin fingel scored. Weak. Gonna start on friday me thinks..

[Harry Chibber]

I was planning this a couple of weeks back. 20 starter on shamrock rovers vs fc fingel (ire) @ 10/11 Then if I won was gonna put it on Inter in the champ final the next night. 91st min 1-0 rovers 94th min f*ckin fingel scored. Weak. Gonna start on friday me thinks..

[Joonya]

:023:

[SanMiguel]

You gonna give the fiver a bash during the world cup gringo??

[Joonya]

indeed i am

[Joonya]

I thought I would share with you a few stats from testing this theory. All info is from before the world cup.

I have bet ?45 on 9 initial bets of ?5 each

(or ?50 total on 12 initial bets f you could greyhounds).

Based on just the football bets, the best streak before a defeat was 5 games, which would have netted ?48.78 had I not placed the 6th bet.

The 6th game would have been a return of ?78-?80 at odds of 6/10. Unfortunately for me, as mentioned by BA before, this wasn't the case...

I have lost 3 times on the initial bet

Had I not put on 'that next bet' and banked instead, I could have had a total return of ?98.69

there have been 18 matches bet on in total, giving a 50/50 win/lose ratio.

All in all, I think the theory has some element of plausability, considering the average defeat has come on EVENS or AGAINST bets, where as most wins have come using ODDS ON. The longest odds bet was 15/8, which lost, with the more successfull bets being at odds of 8/11 and 4/7

[Joonya]

After 'praciticing the theory' during pre-season, it became more and more apparent that ODDS ON teams were more likely to win...

"Well, der!" you may be thinking - but in truth, Odds on betting doesnt really guarentee a win. Just look at Celtic last year in the cup. 2/9 and they lost!

Anyway, I looked back at my bets for each week of the pre-season, and found most the teams that won were 8/11 and 4/7 odds. I have since only used teams at these odds and this weekend got my first win :-) yay.

?4 on a 5-way accumilator every weekend, with ?1 on 3-way corrct scores. Thats ?5 per weekend.

We're at week 5 of the season, making ?25 placed total (or ?20 discounting the corrct scores bets).

After my win yesterday, ?61 on 5-way acc', I am now ?36 in pocket.

That doesnt sound alot, but tim will tell if this new tactic of betting will work or not...