Where now for the SPL?

[bauhaus]

The demise of Rangers is now complete. Not accepted in the SPL, unlikely to gey into the First Division, so probably the Third division. Hopefully the sfl promote the losing play off finalists, and decide between Dunfermline and Dundee.

It has been openly accepted that each club will now need another 1000 fans per game to make up the imbalance ( although unlikely this applies to ICT with County up ). Motherwell and Kilmarnock are now possible contenders for administration themselves, with the sky deal likely to falter and reduce the following season, then putting Aberdeen, Hearts, Dundee United, Dunfermline, St Mirren all likely to find very serious financial difficulty. We are not immune to this, as 2013/14 becomes very critical for all clubs.

Rumours going round that Celtic are now going to have to sell players because of their wage bill, and champions league group stages are an absolute must for them now. After Celtic become champions this coming season they will face an exodus of players due to the lack of competition, and falling gates.

Scotlands standing in the european configuretive will drop as poor results really effect, so money becomes even tighter, among those still being "competitive" at the top end of the spl ( 2nd to 4th ).

If Rangers survive at all, it will be at least 4 seasons before the spl can see them again, and the way they are shedding players it might be more than 4 seasons.

Where will the spl standing be in 3 years, and what clubs are in real danger. Money isnt everything and scotland will still have a top league, but what standard do you think it will be with players wages as low as £ 500 per week probably

[bdu98196]

Looking at the whole SPL situation everyone accepts that Celtic will win the League, however whereas in the past perhaps teams come out and suggest taking any points of the OF is never usually expected in a season, with only having 1 major team now surely this should act as encouragement for all teams? Not that I would suggest teams dont try against the OF but for certain clubs who have appauling records of no wins or points for many years suggest perhaps a lack of fight in these games and already accepting defeat (thankfully we are not one of those clubs) - maybe the situation now will install more belief?

If Celtic are going to win the league I'd hope every team and player out there makes it as hard as possible - thsi is the best chance in decades for anoyone outside Glasgow to mount a challange. Sadly with the state of finances nobody can invest heavily in a squad, although I think Romanov could at Hearts if he wanted? How the teams perform against each other, as usual point will be dropped and its going to be competitive but for a Hearts, D Utd to win or mount a serious challenge we need every club to play against Celtic the way they would against any other SPL club - if the season starts with Celtic steam rollering over teams with huge victories then Scottish football will be on its arse.

As for clubs in danger, it could be conluded that from those who haven't gone public regarding voting 'No' - ie the west coast clubs that they all fear for their futures - Kille, Midden, Motherwell - sadly they have the problem of being gographically closer to the OF therefore although there is a bigger populus of potential fans there is in effect less due people not supporting their local clubs but being either 'glory hunters' or selecting a club on the basis of religious grounds.

[Alex MacLeod]

The SFA has money and could alleviate the pressures on clubs. I think the future is a total shake-up of the way things have been run. I hope people will realise that giving the lions share to the top team(s) in the hope of european success was a total failure and that we need everyone on a level footing to create competition. Scottish football was successful before the SPL and TV and it could be again. Change will take a few years to bring fruit but I believe it will happen.

[Yngwie]

I hope people will realise that giving the lions share to the top team(s) in the hope of european success was a total failure

The last few seasons have been very poor in that respect, but I wouldn't say total failure, far from it.

We've seen 2 Scottish teams in European finals in the last 10 years, which is 2 more than in the previous 10 years. And some very respectable runs in the Champions League too. Very decent performance for a small nation, comparing pretty well against the likes of Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, and most of Eastern Europe for that matter.

But those days are past now, I agree.

[Proctor]

But before that in the 1980's and early 90's we had teams in European finals and even won trophies in Europe without the money been given to the top 2 teams. So you could argue that evenly distributing money between all clubs would mean more clubs could be more competitive in Europe. Not that I am expecting any miricles now.

[Yngwie]

But before that in the 1980's and early 90's we had teams in European finals and even won trophies in Europe without the money been given to the top 2 teams.

There were some immense performances by Aberdeen and Dundee Utd, but the reality is that it was far easier to reach finals in those days when it was more cup and less league. Only a few teams to overcome to get to a final. And the strongest nations weren't allowed to flood the competions with all their top sides like they do now, the European Cup was one country, one entrant, regardless of how good they were.

[Tichy_Blacks_Back]

I don't really know - let's just hope something poistive comes out of all this.

How can a neighbouring league compete with this though...crazy....280K a month and not even a decent player....just think what many SFL clubs could do with just a week's worth of his salary....

"QPR wanted to fine Joey Barton three months' wages - £840,000 - over his meltdown at Manchester City last month."

[Charles Bannerman]

It has been openly accepted that each club will now need another 1000 fans per game to make up the imbalance ( although unlikely this applies to ICT with County up ).

Even of you'd said "another 1000 fans per game ON AVERAGE" I might still have queried this on the basis that it would mean that the other SPL clubs "welcomed" :love02: a total of 19,000 (1000 x 19 home games) Rangers fans per season across their average 1.5/2.0 home encounters with them in the bottom/top six. However since I'm not in a position to do the sums, I'll not press this one and would be prepared to be persuaded if someone came up with definitive numbers to back up this claim of 1000.

However, specifically in the case of ICT - and WITHOUT the County factor - Rangers formerly came to visit, on average 1.5 times a season. Even adding in Rangers fans slipping into the home end, 3500 would seem to be a fairly generous estimate of average attendance by Rangers fans at games at TCS. That's 5250 (3500 x 1.5) a season or, if you divide by 19 home games, about 275 per game, which is much lower than the 1000 stated.

As it happens, if Highland Derbies are similarly attended, that should cancel out the above effect and - all other things being equal - gate receipts should be unaffected.

Also take into account that there is now only one and not two clubs to claim a disproportionately large share of revenue which should leave more for the rest.

As for the "new" SPL, well obviously the departure of Rangers now makes the top 6 and European places that much more accessible which by definition makes the league more competitive.

And in any case what's the difference between two teams being able to win the league and one team being able to win the league?

Answer - the outcome of Old Firm (or should we now call in "Former Firm") games which per se are of no interest at all to the other teams in the SPL anyway.

There is also, I believe, a chance here for a new beginning in Scottish football. There is a glorious (I hope that's not an inappropriately triumphalist or hubristic turn of phrase! ) opportunity here for our game to free itself from this absurd duopoly by two clubs both made artificially and disproportionately larger than the rest by religious division and Irish politics in an area a long way from here - factors which don't even have the remotest connection with football in Scotland.

One further thought - where will all the ex Ibrox Glory Hunters go now?

Edited June 27, 2012 by Charles Bannerman

[CaleyD]

I believe the figure of 1000 is intended to include compensating for the (potential) loss of revenue from TV and Corporate Sponsors....in which case I would suggest that it is well short of the mark and the required figure would/should be viewed as in the region of 2000 to 2500 (per game).

[bauhaus]

The 1000 gate number is most likely from those teams closer to the central belt where the attendance more than doubles, even trebles when the old firm were in town. We can only give 2500 plus the south open end of the main stand, so 3000 max. But the likes of Motherwell and Killie, Hibs, Dundee Utd, St Johnstone, Aberdeen, will drop that 5-6000 plus gates. Celtic will not be immune, 60,000 for old firm games, but last year attendances of under 50,000 were frequent. Celtic 20-30 points ahead, can you see 55,000 turning up tp see them play us, county, Killie, St Mirren, St johns, Dunfermline or Dundee etc etc. How much sponsership will be lost, how much revenue from match day top rate hospitality etc etc.

As I said, we have county, for one season, maybe more, so gate takings will be similar for the first season.

SKY TV? not sure if you were paid per tv game, but they wont have an away old firm game each weekend, unless my English pals are correct in what they are saying the rumour is that SKY are to follow Rangers back through the leagues.

What is likely, is the third, second and first division clubs will get a boost, which will give some a season or twos cash flow, as all will have two home games v the Newco. The likes of Elgin may get 6-8000, Queens Park 15,000+ as Rangers fans will flock to see their team at Hampden for the last time in a few years.

As for this argument that our clubs did it in the past ( Aberdeen and Dundee Utd in european finals playing exceptional football ), when they didn't have money....... well a lot of the other leagues didn't have so much money then either, but now they have and the gulf will be huge to the average teams in other leagues.

One real positive though, Celtic should get out voted on the money distribution, and this crazy 11-1 approval vote. Get it down to an 7-5, or 8-4 vote, so it is more of a even distribution, with the increase in money for league placing being fair.

All in all, I think the club who will suffer the most, in terms of total income loss, will be Celtic. I can see their attendances dropping to even 40,000 this season, less sponsors, less income from hospitality, and players wanting to leave to gain more competitive matches.

It will be very interesting to see what SKY do in 12 months. Everyone seems to think that ESPN will step in, but they may be thinking their is no interest without the old firm too.

Kilmarnock, Motherwell, Dundee United, Hearts, Aberdeen to name a few are very close to the edge. If one does tip over, what outcry will their be then.

[Alex MacLeod]

There's one thing that everyone is missing here. If TV money is renegotiated then the drop will be not much more that that which Rangers would have recieved in the current unfair duopolitical regime.