Scottish Cup 2016 - our defence of the trophy!

[IMMORTAL HOWDEN ENDER]

[Sneckboy]

East Kilbride 2-0 Lothian Thistle Hutchison Vale
Edit: just hearing that EK v Celtic will be at New Douglas Park, Hamilton.

Still to play:
Dundee v Falkirk
Forfar Athletic v Linlithgow Rose

Last -16 - (ties are on Saturday 6th February at 3pm, unless stated):

Rangers v Kilmarnock (12.30pm)
Annan Athletic v Greenock Morton
Dumbarton v Dundee or Falkirk
Dundee United v Partick Thistle
Motherwell v Inverness Caledonian Thistle
Ross County v Forfar Athletic or Linlithgow Rose
Heart of Midlothian v Hibernian (Sunday 7th at 12.30pm)
East Kilbride v Celtic (Sunday 7th at 3pm - New Douglas Park, Hamilton)

Edited January 20, 2016 by Sneckboy

[Sneckboy]

Dundee 3-1 Falkirk
Forfar Athletic 0-1 (aet) Linlithgow Rose

Last -16 - (ties are on Saturday 6th February at 3pm, unless stated):

Rangers v Kilmarnock (12.30pm)
Annan Athletic v Greenock Morton
Dumbarton v Dundee
Dundee United v Partick Thistle
Motherwell v Inverness Caledonian Thistle
Ross County v Linlithgow Rose
Heart of Midlothian v Hibernian (Sunday 7th at 12.30pm)
East Kilbride v Celtic (Sunday 7th at 3pm)

[Alex MacLeod]

Not done predictions in some time so here goes for this weekend.

Rangers v Kilmarnock............Kilmarnock
Annan Athletic v Greenock Morton.........Annan
Dumbarton v Dundee.............Dundee
Dundee United v Partick Thistle..........Partick
Motherwell v Inverness Caledonian Thistle............Inverness
Ross County v Linlithgow Rose...........County
Heart of Midlothian v Hibernian..........Hearts
East Kilbride v Celtic ............Celtic

Would love tosee Lithgy and EK go on but cant see it. On form there's only going to be one non prem team in QF's though its not inconcievable that Dumbarton and Hibs could progress.

[Kingsmills]

A plucky performance from the club that have never played at the top level to hold Premiership Kilmarnock to a draw. I hope the media pay them some attention....

[Sneckboy]

Rangers 0-0 Kilmarnock
Annan Athletic v Greenock Morton
Dumbarton v Dundee
Dundee United v Partick Thistle
Motherwell v Inverness Caledonian Thistle
Ross County v Linlithgow Rose
Heart of Midlothian v Hibernian (Sunday 7th at 12.30pm)
East Kilbride v Celtic (Sunday 7th at 3pm - at Airdrie)

Quarter-final draw - Monday at 6.30pm Sky Sports News; Teams in the hat:
Premiership
(Kilmarnock or Rangers)

Championship
(Kilmarnock or Rangers)

[Sneckboy]

Rangers 0-0 Kilmarnock
Annan Athletic 1-4 Greenock Morton
Dumbarton 0-0 Dundee
Dundee United 1-0 Partick Thistle
Motherwell 1-2 Inverness Caledonian Thistle
Ross County 4-2 Linlithgow Rose
Heart of Midlothian v Hibernian (Sunday 7th at 12.30pm)
East Kilbride v Celtic (Sunday 7th at 3pm - at Airdrie)

Quarter-final draw - Monday at 6.30pm Sky Sports News; Teams in the hat (so far):

Premiership
Dundee United
Inverness Caley Thistle (holders)
Ross County
(Kilmarnock or Rangers)
(Dundee or Dumbarton)

Championship
Morton
(Kilmarnock or Rangers)
(Dundee or Dumbarton)

[Sneckboy]

Heart of Midlothian 2-2 Hibernian
East Kilbride 0-2 Celtic

Quarter-final draw - Monday at 6.30pm Sky Sports News; Teams in the hat:

Premiership
Dundee United
Inverness Caley Thistle (holders)
Ross County
Celtic
(Kilmarnock or Rangers)
(Dundee or Dumbarton)
(Hibernian or Hearts)

Championship
Morton
(Kilmarnock or Rangers)
(Dundee or Dumbarton)
(Hibernian or Hearts)

[Yngwie]

1 hour ago, Sneckboy said:

East Kilbride 0-2 Celtic

Can't believe how close that score was.  Just imagine what might have happened if Celtic had been facing all of Kilbride instead of just the East part!

[+DoofersDad]

One must give great credit to East Kilbride who were well organised, composed and fit enough to keep going to the end.  Having said that, Celtic were utterly pathetic and managed only 5 shots on target.  Both goals were very scrappy.  Whislt Celtic never looked like losing, had one of those scrappy goals not gone in (or hand Griffith's handball been spotted) or had East Kilbride been able to sneak one, it would have been interesting to see how Celtic coped with the increasing frustration.  A Celtic loss would have been one of the greatest ever upsets, not just in Scottish football but in world sport.  In truth, we really weren't that far away.

[Kind of Blue]

3 hours ago, Yngwie said:

Can't believe how close that score was.  Just imagine what might have happened if Celtic had been facing all of Kilbride instead of just the East part!

It's a bit like Inverness; if only Clach had joined us 

[Sneckboy]

Tonight's draw could produce a series of local derbies - apart from Edinburgh - but they've still a replay to contend! Obviously, all this is a very long-shot!
Assuming Dundee and Rangers win their replays, which is quite conceivable, we could get:

Inverness CT v Ross County
Celtic v Rangers
Dundee v Dundee United
Hearts or Hibernian v Morton

Won't happen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one derby match come out...
But this draw should have been done yesterday on BBC after the EK-Celtic game!

[Caley Mad In Berks]

3 hours ago, Sneckboy said:

Tonight's draw could produce a series of local derbies - apart from Edinburgh - but they've still a replay to contend! Obviously, all this is a very long-shot!
Assuming Dundee and Rangers win their replays, which is quite conceivable, we could get:

Inverness CT v Ross County
Celtic v Rangers
Dundee v Dundee United
Hearts or Hibernian v Morton

Won't happen, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one derby match come out...
But this draw should have been done yesterday on BBC after the EK-Celtic game!

How about a little head scratching to wake us up this Monday morning.  What are the odds of Sneckboy's suggested draw coming to pass?

I reckon that for the draw to happen precisely in the order shown the chances would be 1 in 40320 (Factorial 8).  But for the 4 derbies to be drawn (counting 'Edinburgh' v Morton as a derby), in any order, with either side being at home, the odds reduce considerably.  I make it 1 in 2520.  Anyone want to confirm that before I get down to the bookies?

[Yngwie]

2 minutes ago, Caley Mad In Berks said:

I make it 1 in 2520.  Anyone want to confirm that before I get down to the bookies?

Nah, must be lower than that. 1 in 105?

 

[Caley Mad In Berks]

57 minutes ago, Yngwie said:

Nah, must be lower than that. 1 in 105?

 

Yes, after waking up a bit, I've worked out the logic which shows Yngwie is correct with 105.  I think!

[RiG]

Morton away please.

A chance to see Former Future World Player of the Year Conor Pepper.

[Alex MacLeod]

13 hours ago, Kind of Blue said:

It's a bit like Inverness; if only Clach had joined us 

Bit further between East and West Kilbride than between Grant St and Kingsmills

[caleyboy]

Morton or DU at home please

[Kingsmills]

A home tie. Don't much care who against. We showed last year that we are capable of beating anyone in this competition.

[ICTPaisley]

I'd like Morton or Dumbarton away. But looking at the teams left if we manage a home tie and avoid hearts and Celtic I will be happy.

[Charles Bannerman]

5 hours ago, Sneckboy said:

Assuming Dundee and Rangers win their replays, which is quite conceivable, we could get:

Inverness CT v Ross County
Celtic v Rangers
Dundee v Dundee United
Hearts or Hibernian v Morton

I make the probability of the draw coming out exactly as quoted (or indeed in any other possible permutation) to be 1/40320, the probability of these four pairings in any order but with the stated home clubs to be 1/1680 and the probability of simply these four pairings to be 1/105.

The first one, rendered somewhat academic by the requirement for the ties to emerge in that order, is as CMIB says, 1/8! (factorial 8) or 1/40320, since the probability of the first club is 1/8, of the second 1/7 etc through the entire 8.

Of more practical relevance is the second one since all its determining factors relate to who meets whom and where. The probability of any particular team meeting any specified other is 1/7, but home/away arrangements then make that 1/14. Six teams are now left so the probability of another specific pairing becomes 1/5 which goes to 1/10 with ground arrangements. The probabilities of the remaining two ties similarly come out at 1/6 and 1/2. Multiply these together to get the combined probability and it comes out at 1/1680.

To get the third one you remove the 1/2 home/away factor from each of the four ties - ie you multiply 1/1680 by "2 to the power 4" (i.e. 16) to get 1/105.

In terms of factorials, 40320 is 8! as stated by CMIB. 1680 is 8!/4! (the 4! removes the "order" part of it) while 105 is 8!/(4! x 2 to the power 4).

To optimise chances of progress, I would guess that most of the "bigger" clubs would be looking for a home tie, preferably against Morton or, in the possibly unlikely event of them beating Dundee, Dumbarton.)

[Kingsmills]

6 minutes ago, Charles Bannerman said:

I make the probability of the draw coming out exactly as quoted (or indeed in any other possible permutation) to be 1/40320, the probability of these four pairings in any order but with the stated home clubs to be 1/1680 and the probability of simply these four pairings to be 1/105.

The first one, rendered somewhat academic by the requirement for the ties to emerge in that order, is as CMIB says, 1/8! (factorial 8) or 1/40320, since the probability of the first club is 1/8, of the second 1/7 etc through the entire 8.

Of more practical relevance is the second one since all its determining factors relate to who meets whom and where. The probability of any particular team meeting any specified other is 1/7, but home/away arrangements then make that 1/14. Six teams are now left so the probability of another specific pairing becomes 1/5 which goes to 1/10 with ground arrangements. The probabilities of the remaining two ties similarly come out at 1/6 and 1/2. Multiply these together to get the combined probability and it comes out at 1/1680.

To get the third one you remove the 1/2 home/away factor from each of the four ties - ie you multiply 1/1680 by "2 to the power 4" (i.e. 16) to get 1/105.

In terms of factorials, 40320 is 8! as stated by CMIB. 1680 is 8!/4! (the 4! removes the "order" part of it) while 105 is 8!/(4! x 2 to the power 4).

To optimise chances of progress, I would guess that most of the "bigger" clubs would be looking for a home tie, preferably against Morton or, in the possibly unlikely event of them beating Dundee, Dumbarton.)

You forgot to factor in the SFA's hot ball system.......

[bdu98196]

I expect us to get another spl team with a trip to dundee or edinburgh, but id take anyone if we got a home draw for a change, fully expect the OF avoid each other at this stage too.

 

 

 

[Yngwie]

7 minutes ago, Kingsmills said:

You forgot to factor in the SFA's hot ball system.......

I see Lubo Moravcik is the one tasked with pulling the warm balls out. Surely Celtic will have briefed him not to match them with us again, after we've put them out 3 times since the millennium.

Indeed, Moravcik was playing on the first of those occasions and was wrongly credited with Bobby Mann's goal.

[Kingsmills]

18 hours ago, Yngwie said:

Can't believe how close that score was.  Just imagine what might have happened if Celtic had been facing all of Kilbride instead of just the East part!

Copyright Welsh rugby fans 1991.....